Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
15 June 2004
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2004
SUMMARY
Latin American equities declined for a second month in a row, though the fall
was significantly less than in April. The MSCI Latin American Free index fell
4.4% in sterling terms, however the region performed better than other GEMs for
the month. The market was led down by Colombia and Argentina, down 15.9% and
10.9% respectively, while Brazil, Chile and Mexico also posted declines of 5.0%,
4.9% and 3.1% for the month. Venezuela, plagued by political noise regarding
the presidential recall vote, fell nearly 9% for the month.
The 'overhang' of US Fed interest rate hikes is still hurting the region. This
concern is in addition to soaring oil prices, which weighs heavily on emerging
markets and may curtail the global growth forecast. Crude oil prices surged to
new highs after OPEC failed to stand behind Saudi Arabia's call to increase
production. Other commodities were flat to down for the month, including copper
and gold. A third concern is the projected 'slow down' in China, which has
dampened investors' enthusiasm for certain commodity plays such as steel, pulp
and other industrial commodities, which continues to plague Brazil.
Our NAV outperformed slightly for the month, down 4.0%. Stock selection and
country allocation were both positive for the month, with the overweight
position in Mexico and underweights in Argentina and Colombia helping
performance. Stock selection across the board was positive for the month, with
Brazil the biggest contributor, followed by positive performance in Chile,
Mexico and Argentina with a single stock.
The major Latin currencies were all off versus sterling for the month, with the
Brazilian real the big loser, falling 10.7%. The Argentine, Chilean and
Colombian pesos also fell, 6.7%, 5.8% and 5.5% respectively. Rounding out the
lot, the Mexican peso was down 3.2%, the Peruvian New Sol down 3.1% and the
Venezuelan Bolivar continued its slide, down 3.0% for the month.
On a positive note, the MSCI benchmark added five new Latin American stocks to
its index as of the close of 28 May, including Klabin, Caemi and Corporacion
Geo. We have positions in Caemi and Geo and is considering establishing a
position in Klabin after our visit to the company in March.
In Brazil, the interest rate committee left interest rates unchanged. The
markets had been divided over the decision, with substantial Brazil watchers
expecting a 25 b.p. cut. This, plus heightened global fears, contributed to the
weakness in the real, and the widening of spreads as the C Bond widened by 85
bps to an average of 720 bps over comparable US Treasuries in May. The
political season is heating up, ahead of the October municipal elections, and
expectations of political noise are percolating. From the macroeconomic
standpoint, the Brazilian economy rose a better than expected 2.6% in the first
quarter, year on year, led by investment which was up 2.3%. Signs of a
turnaround in consumption are still not apparent, as those indicators continue
to lag. Despite negative unemployment data, which rose to an unexpected 13.1%
in April, consumer confidence showed a strong rebound in May, rising to its
highest level since February.
The Trust's underweight position in Brazil proved helpful for the month, as did
stock-picking. The largest detractors for the index included Petrobras, down
11.6% in sterling, Telenorte Leste, down 8.7%, Eletrobras, down 13.5% and Brazil
Telecom, down 12%. We were underweight (or negative weight) in all of these
negative performers. Also constructive was our overweight position in CVRD,
which was the top gainer for the month, up 9% in sterling terms.
The MSCI Mexico outperformed the index, falling 3.1% for the month. On a
positive note, the Mexican pension fund authorities announced that it will allow
pension funds to invest in principal protected equity linked notes by the end of
the year. While this will not allow investment 'directly' into equities, it is
a step in the right direction and the market responded favourably. On other
indicators, industrial production rose a better than expected 6.4% year on year,
and GDP posted a better than expected 3.7% for the quarter. Higher oil prices
are a benefit to Mexico and have helped their current account, which has also
been bolstered by stronger unilateral transfers. Notably, FDI was a robust $US
7.4 billion for the quarter, largely explained by BBVA's purchase of the
remaining Bancomer shares. Additionally, Mexico's jobless rate improved to a
better than expected 3.6% in April, a further signal that a consumer recovery is
just around the corner.
An overweight position in America Movil, Walmex, Corporacion Geo and Grupo
Mexico contributed to our outperformance as these stocks were among the best
performers for the month. Positive stock selection was achieved despite the
negative sentiment surrounding Femsa (after the settlement was announced),
Televisa and Cemex all of which lagged the index and are overweight positions in
the portfolio. We remain confident that the Mexican overweight position is
appropriate, given the lower level of risk inherent in the market (as compared
to Brazil) and signs that a recovery is in the making.
Our Chilean holdings contributed positively in May as several of the locally
listed (and unowned) names such as Copec and CMPC fell sharply, while our
largest position, in Banco Santander, an overweight, was up for the month.
Despite the lackluster results for the Chilean equity market for the month,
economic indicators remain positive with economic activity on the rise. Chile
reported a first quarter GDP growth of 4.8%, a budget surplus equivalent to 0.4%
of GDP (helped by stronger copper prices and tax collections), flat consumer
prices and record low interest rates.
Conversely, the Argentine equity market fell dramatically for the month, off
nearly 11% in sterling terms, with the peso losing 6.7% of its value. April's
industrial production surprisingly fell by 4%, declining for the first time in
seven months. The Argentine government announced an energy plan to address the
crisis which includes increasing export taxes on crude and refined oils. This
was not well received by the market and caused Petrobras Energia, the second
largest stock in the index to plummet, losing over 21% of its value. By
contrast, our sole holding, Tenaris, which is an overweight, was up 3.6% for the
month.
GEARING
We have now repaid our loan, effectively reducing the gearing to zero. While we
remain generally constructive on the region, we are more cautious in the short
term with rising global risk aversion. In this regard, we have gone overweight
the more defensive, liquid markets, such as Mexico, which we consider less
vulnerable to global uncertainty, and in Brazil, have refocused the portfolio on
the dollar generators and low leveraged companies which should hold up to
further currency and interest rate weakness.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/05/04 30/04/04 31/05/04 30/04/04
73.7p 76.8p 79.3p 81.7p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/05/04 30/04/04
Ordinary Shares 64.50p 72.50p
Warrants 12.00p 15.00p
Discount/(Premium) % 12.5 5.6
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £35.2 million (£36.7 million).
Market exposure
31/05/04 30/04/04
%) %
EQUITIES
Argentina 1.9 0.4
Brazil 37.9 43.2
Chile 8.4 9.6
Mexico 47.0 42.0
Peru 1.6 1.4
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 96.8 96.6
Net Current Assets 3.2 3.4
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £35.2 million (£40.7 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/05/04 30/04/04
- 10.9%
===== =====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £30.3 million equal to 88.8% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of portfolio
Petrobras Brazil 3,666 10.7
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 3,547 10.4
America Movil Mexico 3,374 9.9
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,710 8.0
Telefonos de Mexico Mexico 2,532 7.4
Cemex Mexico 2,207 6.5
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,770 5.2
Femsa Mexico 1,198 3.5
Bco Santander Chile 869 2.5
Banco Itau Brazil 864 2.5
Emp Nac Electric Chile 795 2.3
Tenaris S.A Argentina 673 2.0
Bradesco Brazil 613 1.8
Enersis Chile 608 1.8
Minas Buenaventura Peru 575 1.7
Alfa Mexico 545 1.6
Cemig Cia Energy Brazil 503 1.5
Caemi Min E Metal Brazil 468 1.4
Consorcio Mexico 444 1.3
Sider Nacional Brazil 432 1.3
Grupo Mexico Mexico 415 1.2
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 410 1.2
Grupo Modelo Mexico 385 1.1
Corp Geo Mexico 356 1.0
Telesp Celular Brazil 346 1.0
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, One Appold
Street, London EC2A 2UU, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services
Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors
should note that the price of shares and the income from them can go down as
well as up and are not guaranteed and investors may not get back the amount they
invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your
investment. Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC may invest in shares
traded in emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile. The
use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV),
meaning that a relatively small movement either down or up in the value of the
Trust's total assets will result in a magnified movement in the same direction
of that NAV. In extreme circumstances, investors may get nothing back at all if
the fall in value is sufficiently large.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange