Monthly Report-Apr 2000,etc

Morgan Grenfell Lat Amer Co Tst PLC 11 May 2000 The Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust supports the AITC its campaign REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2000 SUMMARY During the month of April, the MSCI Latin America Free Index fell by 9.1% in sterling terms in a sell-off initiated by a significant correction in the technology-heavy NASDAQ in the US, down over 17% during the period. Within Latin America, the main impact was felt in the telecoms, media and technology stocks which had been beneficiaries of the NASDAQ rally, and in the larger markets of Brazil (down 11.6%) and Mexico (down 9.3%). Other world markets were hard hit in April, with the global MSCI Emerging Markets index off 7.9% and the developed markets of MSCI World down 2.5%. Our NAV fell by 10.5%, underperforming the index; we were hit by our overweights in the Brazilian market and by our exposure to CTC in Chile. The share price declined by 13% as the discount widened from 16% to 20% due to increased volatility. Apart from overvaluation on NASDAQ, investor sentiment has been affected by the stronger than expected growth in the US and signs of building inflationary pressures, which have increased the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve raising rates more aggressively in the near term. While we acknowledge that Latin American markets will be unable to make much progress in the face of a volatile US market, particularly if the hoped-for soft landing is not achieved, we believe that absent a major US slowdown the region's own fundamentals are extremely positive for 2000 and beyond, which should ultimately be reflected in valuations. BRAZIL The Brazilian market was the major casualty of the April sell-off, affected by the high concentration of telecoms stocks in the index. The real also lost 4% against the dollar as a consequence of the NASDAQ-related turbulence. Brazil was hit hard mid-month as the Supreme Court initiated a ruling on a potentially large but obscure fiscal liability (FGTS, relating to adjustments to workers' accounts from the 1980's), which spooked the market considerably. However, the Supreme Court has postponed considering the issue further for another month, leaving time we hope for some political compromise to be found. Other news in April was highly positive. IPCA inflation for March was as low as 0.22%, or 6.92% annualised; we have since seen even more encouraging inflation figures for April relating to the Sao Paulo area. The Q1 2000 consolidated public surplus was well above the IMF target. Industrial production grew 16.3% in February, led by orders for durable and capital goods, and car sales rose by 4.3% in March in further evidence of the domestic recovery. Trade figures have also been good due to a stronger export performance. The Central Bank left overnight rates unchanged at 18.5% for April in the light of inflation concerns in the US. In specific stock-related news, we have seen good Q1 2000 results from many of the companies in our Brazilian portfolio. Steelmaker Gerdau expects demand for its long steel products, used in construction and infrastructure, to grow by 7% this year. Brazil's leading brewer, Brahma saw its merger with rival Antartica approved to create Ambev, the world's 3rd largest brewer with over 75% market share. And in an indication that Latin America is still a favoured destination for international companies, US power company AES, with its partner EdF of France, has offered to buy out stakes in power distribution and generating companies in Brazil which they already control for a total of US$1.35 bn. Our performance during the month was hurt by adding aggressively to Brazil just before the market crumbled. Our big telecoms overweights were particularly affected, as were our holdings in Unibanco and CSN, although Brahma, Banco Itau, CVRD and Gerdau held up well. MEXICO Continued evidence of a strong domestic recovery came through in Mexico, where retail sales rose 16.5% in February. Industrial production showed a 9.7% expansion that month and the Central Bank announced it is expecting GDP growth of between 6% and 7% for Q1 2000. Inflation for April came in at 0.57%, the lowest since 1994 and finally showing twelve month inflation in single digits, at 9.73%. Lower inflation translating into real wage gains is allowing Mexican producers to achieve real price increases in many segments. This was confirmed by excellent Q1 results from Femsa, Modelo, Cemex and Kimberly-Clark. Strong aggregate demand is also being met with real production increases. However, as we expected, interest rates have begun to rise, with 28 day Cetes now above 14%. There was good news in the banking sector; Congress passed two key bills, the Bankruptcy Law and the Guarantees Law, which should allow for a more rapid recovery in banking assets in case of default by borrowers. Banco Santander Central Hispano of Spain paid US$1.54 bn (or 1.6 x book value) to acquire Mexico's third largest bank, Grupo Financiero Serfin, which was nationalised after the 1995 banking crisis. And in an interesting twist in the ongoing consolidation process in Mexico, Banamex made a surprise offer for its rival Bancomer, which is already subject to a bid from Spain's BBVA. During the month, some of the weakest stocks were the major banks, telecoms and media companies, which had outperformed in previous periods. As mentioned in last month's newsletter, we had already cut back our exposure to Banamex and we also trimmed our holdings in Cemex and Desc early in April, in line with our more cautious view on Mexico. CHILE The Central Bank renewed restrictions on the Chilean capital account (including prohibiting foreign investors from investing locally) for another year, contradicting earlier indications that they would be eliminated. However, a law improving minority shareholder protection has now been passed which was one of the Finance Minister's conditions for ending the restrictions. The local market is convinced that they will be lifted this year. The domestic economy continues its recovery; IMACEC figures showed that the Chilean economy grew 5.6% in February, industrial production rose 6% in March, and retail sales grew by 3.3% in Q1 2000. Annual inflation was running at 3.4% in March, boosted by fuel prices. Interest rates stayed unchanged at 5.5% from the previous month. The Chilean market overall was fairly defensive in April, falling by only 5.4%, although the peso was weak. However, our holding in telecoms major CTC was hard hit, in line with telecoms throughout the region. ARGENTINA The Argentine market fell 7.3% in April. Export and industrial production data (up 4.1% in March, up 3.2% Q1 2000) were favourable, but they were overcome by the events in the US and other local data releases. Credit to the private sector fell 8.9% YOY in March; unemployment looks likely to rise in May from 14.5% last year; and recent figures on tax collection show disappointing results. The Senate finally passed the Labour Reform bill, which should be a mild positive for the economy. Telecom Argentina (controlled by France Telecom and Telecom Italia) placed $230m or 5% of its shares previously owned by its employees in the market; we did not take part, as our conversations with management revealed that our pessimistic earnings outlook for the company is more than justified. We made no portfolio changes during the month and remain underweight. ANDEAN MARKETS The Andean markets were relative outperformers during the month, mostly due to a lack of liquidity. Colombia fell 4.9%; economic recovery is gradually coming through, with industrial production rising 5.5% in March and tax collection up 12.5% in February. However, inflation has surprised on the upside, reaching 5.4% in Q1. Politics is again a concern, with President Pastrana's plan to dissolve Congress in order to root out corruption and restructure the political system causing great controversy. Peru declined by 2.9% in April. The first round of the Presidential election was extremely close, with President Fujimori gaining 49.8% of the vote and his challenger Alejandro Toledo 40.3%. Allegations of widespread fraud caused extreme popular discontent when the results were announced. The Presidential election will go to a second round on May 28 with the outcome uncertain, although most polls show Fujimori with a slight lead. The President's party lost its majority in Congress. Despite concerns, central government spending seems to have been relatively contained going into the election, and the economy grew about 8.5% in Q1 2000 after a 10% rise in March. We sold our entire holding in Telefonica del Peru early in the month, which we reinvested largely in Brazil. Venezuela fell by only 0.27% although CANTV was harder hit. Political concerns are rising ahead of the Presidential runoff on May 28; President Hugo Chavez remains the favourite but a stronger than expected challenge from his opponent Francisco Arias has forced him to increase his populist rhetoric. Some signs of improvement are evident in the economy with industrial production growing 15% in Q1 but we still have serious concerns over the government's economic management. AES offered $860m for 51% of the shares in the leading electric utility, Electricidad de Caracas, which is the second largest stock in the index. We made no changes to our portfolio during the month. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 30/04/00 31/03/00 30/04/00 31/03/00 88.9p 99.4p 90.9p 99.5p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/04/00 31/03/00 Ordinary Shares 72.50p 83.50p Warrants 22.50p 24.50p Market exposure 30/04/00 31/03/00 EQUITIES Argentina 1.3 1.3 Brazil 37.9 41.1 Chile 10.7 10.2 Colombia 0.6 0.7 Mexico 45.7 44.3 Peru 1.9 1.6 Venezuela 1.8 1.6 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 99.9 100.8 Net Current Assets 0.1 (0.8) ------ ------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 ------ ------- Based on total assets less current liabilities of £51.3 million (£58.4 million). GEARING Borrowings and Gearing at 30/04/00 31/03/00 £000's £000's NIL NIL ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £43.7 million equal to 85.3% of total portfolio) % of Country £000's portfolio Telmex Mexico 8,945 17.5 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 2,531 4.9 Femsa Mexico 2,471 4.8 Petrobras Brazil 2,018 3.9 Telecom de Chile Chile 1,974 3.9 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,971 3.8 Tele Centro Sul Brazil 1,923 3.8 Banco Itau Brazil 1,898 3.7 Unibanco Brazil 1,753 3.4 Brahma Brazil 1,558 3.0 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,471 2.9 Soriana Mexico 1,384 2.7 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,340 2.6 Gerdau Brazil 1,326 2.6 Telesp Celular Brazil 1,284 2.5 Embratel Brazil 1,265 2.5 Banamex Mexico 1,235 2.4 Kimberly-Clark Mexico 1,109 2.2 Cemex Mexico 1,095 2.1 Alfa Mexico 1,061 2.1 Credicorp Peru 946 1.8 CANTV Venezuela 927 1.8 ICA 5% Conv. 15/03/04 Mexico 762 1.5 D & S Chile 752 1.5 Enersis Chile 714 1.4 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Annual General Meeting 30 June 2000 Subscription date for warrants 30 June 2000 Final dividend paid 4 July 2000 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of the Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam.co.uk Issued by Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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