Monthly Report - April 2001

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 10 May 2001 REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2001 SUMMARY The month of April saw a more positive tone to Latin American equity markets after the weakness of February and March. The MSCI Latin American Free Index rose by 5.1% in sterling terms, led by strong rises in Mexico and Venezuela, which appreciated by 8.6% and 9.6% respectively. Argentina still cast a shadow over the Southern Cone but the Brazilian market was able to rise at the month end after more positive developments in its neighbour, ending the month up by a modest 3.2%. The weakest market was Peru, which fell 9.6% after former President Alan Garcia unexpectedly secured a place in the runoff for June's Presidential elections. Overall the Latin American region outperformed the broader MSCI Global Emerging Markets Free Index (+4.0% in April) which was held back by weakness in Asia, but lagged behind the developed markets of MSCI World (+6.6%) which responded positively to another Fed rate cut. Our performance was significantly better in April, as our NAV rose by 6.5%, ahead of the benchmark index due to a strong rally in some of our key overweight stocks, particularly those in Brazil. Our share price lagged this improvement, rising by only 2.8% as the discount widened slightly to 18.4%. Recently returned from a positive and interesting trip to Mexico, where we met with top management of most of the country's largest companies, we have added to our Mexican weighting and cut back some of our more significant overweights in Brazil, in order to reduce exposure to the ongoing volatility there. However we remain somewhat cautious on committing any additional money to Mexico given the recent strength of the exchange rate and the significant drop in local interest rates, such that the equity market may be vulnerable to any disappointments. BRAZIL The MSCI Brazil Free Index rose 3.2% in April. Over the month, the equity market was weak, with confidence eroded by ongoing domestic political developments (including a Senate scandal over voting secrecy), turmoil in neighbouring Argentina and concerns over the inflationary impact of the weakening currency. This last factor caused the Central Bank to raise interest rates for a second time this year to 16.25%. Year-to-year inflation was running at 6.44% at the end of March, above the government's target of 4.5%. The currency has weakened considerably against the dollar, down over 2% during the month and over 10% over the last three months. We cannot yet assume that the cycle of interest rate rises has ended, nor what impact the weaker currency and higher rates will have on company earnings, which is why we have recently reduced our overweight position. However, we continue to believe that once the situation stabilises the equity market offers good value at these levels and that downside should be limited. We benefited from our significant positions in some of the best-performing stocks over the month, including Unibanco, Brasil Telecom, Petrobras, and Tele Norte Leste. MEXICO The Mexican stock market performed strongly in April with the MSCI Mexico Free Index rising by 8.6% in sterling terms, driven by a 2.3% appreciation of the peso against the dollar over the month (due to strong inflows to the capital account) and significant rises seen in some of its key stocks, many of which reported better-than-expected Q1 results. Short term interest rates also declined over the month from 15% to 13%, as Mexico was seen as somewhat of a safe haven for investors in the region. A slowdown is already evident in the manufacturing and export segments of the economy, caused by growing weakness in demand from the US. Industrial production fell by 3.7% YOY in February and manufacturers report slowing orders and plants operating below full capacity. The strength of the peso is exacerbating the slowdown for exporters, which also continue to suffer from a tight labour market. The part of the economy driven by domestic demand still seems relatively robust, although there are signs that consumption is beginning to moderate. The Fox administration has made progress in passing the indigenous rights bill and some key bills on financial sector reform and corporate governance. However, uncertainty still exists as to when the long- awaited fiscal reform bill will be discussed. If passed, this bill would pave the way for a formal upgrade of the country's debt rating to investment grade by S&P, and allow other key reforms to be put forward, including a new electricity law, which would increase investment in Mexico and enhance the country's efficiency of production. As already mentioned, during the month we added to two of our holdings in Mexico, Walmex and BBVA Bancomer, on increased confidence that the earnings outlook for those companies was sustainable over the next twelve months. We also invested in a Mexican builder of low-income homes, Consorcio Ara, after a series of meetings with management that left us convinced that the company would benefit from President Fox's ambitious targets for growth for that industry during his administration. We further reduced our small position in retailer Soriana due to increased competition in its operating area and a lack of visibility for any improvement in its earnings outlook. Our holdings in brewers Modelo and Femsa benefited from good Q1 results, helped by a strong increase in volumes. ARGENTINA The Argentine market fell during April, declining by 3.3% in sterling terms after a volatile month. New Finance Minister Cavallo began his tenure well, securing political support for a number of necessary reforms and a more pro- growth economic package. However, he then began to air his plans to introduce the Euro into a currency basket with the dollar, thus changing Argentina's convertibility regime. This created tremendous uncertainty in the market and the spreads soared on Argentina's external bonds as concerns rose over the possibility of a default. These fears were increased by a dispute with the Central Bank over the easing of reserve requirements on deposits. However some recovery was seen at the end of the month as Cavallo announced more orthodox measures to trim the budget deficit: higher expenditure cuts, an end to VAT exemptions and an increase in the rate of the new financial transactions tax from 0.25% to 0.4%. Rumours of a significant debt swap which would extend the maturity profile of Argentina's debt and so ease short-term liquidity pressure also calmed the market. The Central Bank President Pedro Pou was replaced by Roque Maccarone, the ex-President of Banco de la Nacion, after congressional censure related to a money laundering scandal. Our view on Argentina today is as follows. Cavallo seems to have retreated from his earlier, more radical pro-growth policies and in order to secure IMF support has announced an orthodox programme of spending cuts and tax rises. While this combined with the debt exchange is likely to allow Argentina to weather the storm in the financial markets near-term, it does not look like an attractive proposition for equity investors. Economic data is already weak, with industrial production, construction and tax revenues all pointing towards no recovery so far this year. Receipts from the new financial transactions tax were below target, which prompted the hike in rates. We believe that higher tax rates are likely to stall the recovery further, meaning that corporate earnings will remain subdued for the foreseeable future. This has lessened our interest in holding any Argentine equities, so that we sold our small position at the end of the month. CHILE The Chilean market rose by 4.4% in sterling terms during April; although the Chilean peso has been weak due to concerns over the situation in neighbouring Argentina, where many Chilean companies have substantial investments, that was offset by the Central Bank's surprise announcement of important capital markets reforms, including the removal of capital gains tax for foreign investors. That announcement provoked a strong rally in some of the most liquid names in the local market, anticipating the entry of foreign investors, after restrictions on capital inflows were eased. Domestic economic data though is still far from showing a clear trend of recovery, with unemployment rising to 8.8% in the period to March. As a result, the Central Bank cut interest rates still further to 3.75% (real), concerned also that the slowdown in the global economy would put pressure on demand for Chilean exports. During the month we added modestly to our position in Chile by buying into Banco Santander Chile, a highly-profitable domestic banking franchise, on the feeling that the currency had become oversold and that the low level of interest rates should begin to have some effect. ANDEAN MARKETS Peru was the weakest market in the region during April, pressured by investor concerns over the re-emergence of ex-President Alan Garcia as a challenger to Alejandro Toledo in the second round of Presidential elections due in early June. The outcome of those elections is still highly unpredictable as are the economic policies to be followed by the winning candidate. Meanwhile economic data has been weak, with February GDP down 2.5% YOY and full-year estimates being revised downwards. The Colombian market rose by only 0.8% suffering from a weak currency and continuing signs that growth has moved into reverse gear. We have heard that our only holding in Colombia, brewer Bavaria, plans to buy back up to 25% of its shares in a tender offer this month, which would effectively deprive the market of its most liquid share. Meanwhile in Venezuela, CANTV saw a significant rally, leading the whole market up by 9.6% to make it the best performing index over the month. Relative stability in oil prices and lower unemployment are positive for Venezuela and point towards further economic recovery. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 30/04/01 31/03/01 30/04/01 31/03/01 85.5p 80.3p 88.5p 84.4p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/04/01 31/03/01 Ordinary Shares 72.25p 70.25p Warrants 19.25p 17.00p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £41.0 million (£38.7 million). Market exposure 30/04/01 31/03/01 % % EQUITIES Argentina - 0.8 Brazil 39.0 41.1 Chile 9.4 10.1 Colombia 0.4 0.4 Mexico 38.7 34.6 Venezuela 1.1 0.9 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 88.6 87.9 Net Current Assets 11.4 12.1 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £51.5 million (£49.3 million). GEARING Gearing at 30/04/01 31/03/01 25.6% 27.2% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £41.4 million equal to 90.7% of total portfolio) % of Country £000's portfolio Telmex Mexico 5,465 12.0 Petrobras Brazil 4,159 9.1 Ambev Brazil 3,288 7.2 Banco Itau Brazil 2,851 6.3 Femsa Mexico 2,102 4.6 Banamex Mexico 1,913 4.2 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 1,878 4.1 Unibanco Brazil 1,725 3.8 Sider Nacional Brazil 1,710 3.8 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,648 3.6 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,586 3.5 America Movil Brazil 1,466 3.2 Eletrobras Brazil 1,345 3.0 G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,176 2.6 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,152 2.5 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,124 2.5 Enersis Chile 1,007 2.2 Telecom de Chile Chile 957 2.1 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 839 1.8 Cemex Mexico 836 1.8 Gerdau Brazil 798 1.7 D & S Chile 702 1.5 Brasil Telecom Brazil 603 1.3 CANTV Venezuela 544 1.2 Consorcio Ara Mexico 516 1.1 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Annual General Meeting 29 June 2001 Subscription date for Warrants 30 June 2001 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Anglo & Overseas Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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