Monthly Report- February 2001

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 12 March 2001 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2001 SUMMARY February was a weak month for Latin American markets as the MSCI Latin America Free Index fell by 7.9% in sterling terms. The region proved unable to sustain its January rally, pressured by external factors including weakness in international technology stocks and fears of contagion from the Turkish devaluation, as well as by domestic concerns. The weakest regional market was Argentina, which fell by 17.9%, under pressure after Turkey devalued and local political tensions worsened; Brazil was also affected by the more negative mood, falling 9.2% as the Central Bank did not cut interest rates as expected and trade figures disappointed. Colombia (+3%) and Peru (+1.6%) outperformed due to an easing of political tensions in both markets. It was a difficult month for investors in global markets too; the continuing sell-off in technology shares left NASDAQ down over 20% and sentiment deteriorated further in Japan, so that the MSCI World Index fell 7.4% in sterling terms. MSCI EMF was down 6.7%, pressured by the large falls in Argentina and Turkey although Emerging Asia was relatively stable. Our NAV fell by 8.7%, underperforming the index due to our geared position in weak markets. We were hurt by our relative overweight in Brazil, although our zero weight in Argentina was a positive contributor to performance, as were recoveries in some of our other stocks such as Femsa. Our share price fell less steeply, by only 6.8%, as the discount narrowed. BRAZIL Brazil retraced its January gains last month, as poor trade figures weakened the currency by 5% against the US dollar and prevented interest rates from being cut further. Inflation is still subdued but accelerating economic growth is fuelling a trade deficit, raising concerns over balance of payments financing in an environment of slowing global growth. We believe that for these reasons local interest rates are likely to stay on hold for several months. Industrial production rose 7.5% YOY in December and auto sales rose by 17% in February, showing the strength of the economy particularly in interest-rate sensitive sectors. Apart from concerns over the economy in neighbouring Argentina, the other factor pressuring the Brazilian market last month was politics. A dispute within the ruling coalition has worried investors, concerned by the potential impact on the government's credibility. We view the political instability as temporary but the trade weakness as of more concern, particularly in light of the market's expectation of further interest rate cuts. The Q400 reporting season has been mixed, with disappointing earnings reports from banks Unibanco and Bradesco offsetting stronger figures from Tele Norte Leste. We were also pleased to see CSN's announcement of a special dividend of over US$900m reflecting the restructuring of its cross--shareholdings with CVRD. MEXICO The Mexican index fell by 5.9% in sterling terms over February, driven down by concerns over weaker US growth and poor corporate earnings releases. With the publication of disappointing results from Televisa, brewer Femsa, and steelmaker Hylsamex we have begun to see earnings expectations revised downwards as we anticipated. The manufacturing side of the economy is certainly slowing down, as industrial production data has been weak and unemployment recently showed a small rise. However, still-buoyant consumer spending fuelled a $1.2bn trade deficit in January as consumer imports rose by 35%. Inflation has been subdued as agricultural prices fell, allowing short- term interest rates to come down below 16% by the month end from 18% in January. At the end of the month we added to our holding in Grupo Televisa which had fallen by over 20% after a disappointing (and poorly-communicated) earnings release. The stock has since recovered by around 10%. In other corporate news Telmex finally span off its mobile unit, America Moviles, into a new company that includes its growing business interests in Brazil. ARGENTINA The Argentine market plunged by nearly 18% in sterling terms in February due to an ill-starred combination of weak economic data releases, rising political tension, a money- laundering scandal and concerns over the Turkish devaluation. Tax revenues are still disappointing, causing a $940m budget deficit in January, and industrial production has not turned around. Interest rates rose, reflecting the contagion effect from Turkey, despite a successful bond swap earlier in the month and the US$39bn support package arranged by the IMF only months earlier. Since the end of February, in a response to plummeting confidence at home and abroad, the Finance Minister Jose Luis Machinea was replaced in his post by respected former Defence Minister Ricardo Lopez Murphy. The Chicago-trained economist's greatest challenges will be to improve consumer confidence in order to jump-start growth, and to stimulate corporate investment. Although we believe that this appointment is a positive step, we remain underweight Argentina, where we expect the recovery to be slower than anticipated, the outlook for corporate earnings poor and the reform agenda to be overshadowed by political risk. CHILE Chile fell by 6.4% in sterling terms in February, outperforming the region after a 25bp cut in interest rates mid-month from the Central Bank. A further 50bp cut since month-end has brought rates down to an exceptionally stimulative 4%, reflecting the authorities' concern over the poor state of domestic demand. Unemployment remains at over 8% and growth is disappointing. There has been talk of a new package of tax cuts to stimulate consumer spending and encourage corporate investment. Since the latest rate cut the Chilean peso has fallen a further 5% against the dollar to a record low of P590. This level has prompted companies to hedge their dollar debt, weakening the currency still further. Results from telecoms major CTC and Banco Edwards were again affected by bad debt provisions, reflecting the weakness of the domestic economy. However, the Luksic group has seen a sudden flurry of interest from both Anheuser Busch and Heineken who have both accumulated stakes in its CCU brewing and soft drinks unit. Their involvement signals a new stage in the consolidation of the brewing industry in Latin America in response to the competitive threat from Ambev. We made no changes to our Chilean portfolio during the month. ANDEAN MARKETS As previously mentioned, the Andean markets, particularly Peru and Colombia, outperformed the region in February due to the improvement in the political climate at a time of rising risks elsewhere. In Peru's forthcoming Presidential election it seems increasingly likely that there will be a second round run-off between two more moderate candidates, Alejandro Toledo and conservative Lourdes Flores, rather than a win by discredited former President Alan Garcia. However, the economy is still weak and the path to recovery will be prolonged. Political tensions were eased in Colombia with the resumption of peace talks with a major guerrilla group. Although the economy is much stronger than 1999, with industrial production growth of over 10% and a 3% rise in retail sales year on year in December, there have been recent signs of a slowdown. Brewer Bavaria finally ended the strike that had caused major disruption to its production in recent weeks. In Venezuela, where the market fell by 5.4% in sterling terms, there has been little news now that the recent frenzy of corporate activity has subsided. Inflation is still contained by the strength of the currency and non-oil exports have shown some recovery. However there appears to be growing popular dissatisfaction with the Chavez government which in turn is causing strains within the coalition. Telecoms major CANTV reported results that were weaker than anticipated after significant severance payments related to a corporate restructuring programme. We believe that the Andean region will continue to be supported by fairly stable oil and other commodity prices in 2001 but that the lack of real progress on structural reform, and continuing political instability, will be a key risk for these markets which already suffer from severely diminished liquidity. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 28/02/01 31/01/01 28/02/01 31/01/01 89.5p 98.0p 91.7p 98.4p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 28/02/01 31/01/01 Ordinary Shares 78.50p 84.25p Warrants 20.00p 20.75p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £43.2 million (£48.5 million). Market exposure 28/02/01 31/01/01 EQUITIES Brazil 43.0 44.0 Chile 10.3 10.1 Colombia 0.4 0.4 Mexico 32.8 32.2 Venezuela 1.4 1.4 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 87.9 88.1 Net Current Assets 12.1 11.9 ------ ------ TOTAL 100.0 100.0 ------ ------ Based on total assets of £53.6 million (£58.8 million). GEARING Gearing at 28/02/01 31/01/01 24.1% 21.2% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £43.6 million equal to 92.5% of total portfolio) % of Country £000's portfolio Telmex Mexico 4,563 9.7 Petrobras Brazil 3,964 8.4 Ambev Brazil 3,383 7.2 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 3,179 6.7 Banco Itau Brazil 3,112 6.6 America Movil Brazil 2,532 5.4 Unibanco Brazil 2,175 4.6 Sider Nacional Brazil 1,848 3.9 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,736 3.7 Femsa Mexico 1,723 3.7 Telecom de Chile Chile 1,720 3.7 Banamex Mexico 1,639 3.5 Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,601 3.4 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,497 3.2 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,419 3.0 Enersis Chile 1,024 2.2 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 862 1.8 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 818 1.7 Gerdau Brazil 796 1.7 Cemex Mexico 754 1.6 D & S Chile 753 1.6 CANTV Venezuela 732 1.6 Telesp Celular Brazil 625 1.3 Embratel Brazil 612 1.3 Endesa Chile 489 1.0 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Preliminary Results Announced 18 April 2001 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of the Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/ Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
Investor Meets Company
UK 100