Monthly Report - May 2000
Morgan Grenfell Lat Amer Co Tst PLC
12 June 2000
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REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2000
SUMMARY
May was a better month for the Latin American region than April, although we
were still subject to the vagaries of US market sentiment. Most of the rally
came late in the month after unexpectedly benign US data releases encouraged
investors hoping for a soft landing. The regional index, MSCI Latin America
Free, fell 0.8% in sterling terms over the month; however, there were
considerable variations within markets. Venezuela was the month's best
performer, up 19.3% after a take-over bid for the index's second-largest
stock, utility Electricidad de Caracas. Chile rallied strongly as the Finance
Minister announced the ending of capital controls on foreign investment in the
local market. Brazil put in a good performance, rising 3% in sterling terms,
after positive macro news allowed investors to feel more comfortable about the
economic recovery despite rising US interest rates. Mexico, in contrast, fell
by 6.3% as its strong US-linked growth came under threat from higher interest
rates at home and abroad. And sentiment worsened significantly in Argentina
after a wider than expected fiscal deficit raised concerns about its ability
to meet this year's IMF targets.
Our NAV rose by 1.01% during the month, outperforming the market by a
comfortable margin. We were helped by our big underweight in Argentina, good
stock selection in Chile, and our decision to strongly favour Brazil, where
some of our recent purchases have risen significantly. However, the share
price fell by 1.7% to 71.25p as the discount widened slightly.
It is gratifying to see that despite the recent market volatility, our
relative performance has been improving; according to the latest comparative
figures (measured by NAV) we were the best-performing Latin trust over the
last six months.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian MSCI index rose 3% in sterling terms in a month characterised by
weak volumes. However, the market's steep rebound (+14.8% from its 23 May
low) indicates that generally positive sentiment towards Brazil is growing.
Macro news during the month was good. GDP growth was announced to have been
3.1% in Q1 2000 and April IPCA inflation came in at only 0.42%, which despite
the effects of a minimum wage hike gives a 6.77% annualised figure, down from
6.9% last month. Brazil also showed a healthy primary fiscal surplus for Q1,
reflecting the effects of relatively contained spending and good tax revenues.
During the month, we saw the first steps in the untangling of the cross-
shareholdings between mining group CVRD and steelmaker CSN, which should be
beneficial to both companies. We also saw CVRD acquire control of Samitri,
the third largest iron ore producer in Brazil, from the Arbed group. The
acquisition has a number of strategic positives and demonstrates a welcome
focus by CVRD on its core iron ore business.
We have also seen the first moves in the consolidation of the telecoms sector
in Brazil. After Telefonica's buyout of its subsidiaries was approved by the
Brazilian authorities, and Portugal Telecom launched a tender offer for the
rest of the common shares in its subsidiary Telesp Celular, Bell South has
acquired a significant stake in Tele Centro Oeste. We believe that we will see
further consolidation among the smaller cellular companies in order to improve
efficiency, particularly since the auction of PCS licences later in the year
will only increase competition.
During the month, we purchased a new holding in Tele Nordeste Celular, a
cellular company controlled by Telecom Italia, in order to benefit from this
consolidation theme. The stock had fallen sharply from its March highs and we
saw this as an attractive entry opportunity. It has performed very well since
our purchase. Our weighting in Brazil has now risen to a significant
overweight (43% vs 35% for the MSCI).
MEXICO
The Mexican market fell 6.29% in sterling terms over the month, making it one
of the region's worst performers. This fall adds to its 9% drop in April.
Interest rates have risen convincingly, as we expected, with 28-day Cetes
moving up over the month from levels below 13% to almost 15.5%. This brings
real rates back around a more realistic 5% level, in step with the
authorities' need to calm the exuberant domestic economy.
Mexican Q1 GDP growth was 7.9%, the fastest growth for nearly three years.
This figure was announced on the same day that the US Fed raised rates by
50bp. At the same time, the Mexican Central Bank tightened monetary policy by
increasing the 'corto' by a largely symbolic MXP20 million. Inflation still
looks benign, up only 0.37% in May and 9.48% YOY. However, the peso has
weakened somewhat, which has been blamed on political uncertainties going into
the July 2 election. The race still looks close, although the latest polls
show Fox losing some momentum and better ratings for the ruling PRI's
Labastida.
In corporate news, France Telecom announced plans to sell its $2.5bn stake in
Telmex in a global public offering in order to raise cash for its recent
purchase of Orange. We remain neutral in Mexico.
CHILE
Last month, the Central Bank announced the elimination of the one-year holding
period on foreign investment in the local stock market. This had been widely
anticipated, but the actual timing was a surprise. We anticipate that
international investors will now start to look seriously at some of the more
liquid local stocks, although because local pension funds should be able to
invest more abroad the net effect may be fairly neutral. The Finance Minister
has also said that capital gains tax for foreigners will be removed in a bill
to be put before Congress in the next few months. This news provided some
support to the market, which rose 6.2% in sterling terms. Investors were also
attracted to Chile for its traditional qualities as a safe haven during
regional turbulence, a perception which was helped by the continuing economic
recovery. GDP grew 5.5% in Q1, driven by strong consumption and export
figures. Our holdings in Enersis and retailer D & S did well. We made no
changes to our Chilean portfolio during the month and remain close to neutral.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine market fell 2.1% in sterling terms during May. Confidence ebbed
away after the release of disappointing numbers for the April fiscal deficit,
which led to concerns that Argentina might not be able to meet the IMF target
of a US$696m deficit for Q200. The Finance Ministry announced a further
round of budget cuts totalling $940m in an attempt to meet the targets. The
package requires significant public sector wage reductions which are likely to
be unpopular with Argentina's powerful unions. Major structural reforms are
still needed to reduce the amount of transfers made from the federal
government to the provinces. However, the real problem this year is due to
the lack of revenues. As the economy has failed to show any real recovery
which would provide revenue growth, it is far from clear that the budget cuts
alone will allow the government to hit its 2000 deficit target. We remain
underweight, and convinced that dollarisation is now inevitable.
During the month, the leading Argentine bank Banco de Galicia announced a
controversial capital restructuring which will significantly dilute the voting
rights of minority shareholders. The stock dived on the news, falling over
20%. The terms of the deal were later slightly improved, but still mean that
minority shareholders would have little say in the event of a takeover bid.
ANDEAN MARKETS
The Andean markets showed a wide variation in performance during the month.
Colombia fell by 12.3%, of which about half was due to a further decline in
the peso. This was caused by a continued deterioration in the political
environment which threatened to jeopardise the reform process. Some
rapprochement now seems to have been reached, but the situation remains
fragile. Standard and Poors downgraded the country's foreign debt to two
notches below investment grade, citing the weak fiscal outlook.
Peru fell by 6%, as political tensions escalated ahead of the May 28
Presidential election. President Fujimori's challenger, Alejandro Toledo,
called for the elections to be delayed due to considerable irregularities.
However the ruling party insisted on going ahead despite protests from
international observers. Toledo then urged his supporters to boycott the
polls: in the end, 30% of voters invalidated their ballots in protest but a
Fujimori win was confirmed. Sanctions and protests from the US and
international agencies were feared but now seem unlikely; so far, the OAS has
announced it will send a mission to the country in order to strengthen
democracy.
The elections have taken a toll on Peru's public sector finances; despite
rebounding growth (GDP grew 8.6% in Q1 2000) the primary balance has
deteriorated from a 1.4% surplus in Q199 to a 0.1% deficit in Q100. The
overall fiscal position has picked up since its worst point (Q399) but this
means the government now needs to keep a careful control of spending for the
rest of the year to meet its IMF targets which may be difficult when it needs
to restore confidence and regain public support.
Venezuela rose 19.3% in sterling terms during May, largely due to a bid by US
utility AES for the index's second-largest stock, Electricidad de Caracas.
The stock rose from $13 to $27 as the company's management rejected the offer
and launched an aggressive stock buyback programme. After several weeks, AES
finally announced that it had gained control of the company. This means that
CANTV, the telecoms company we hold, is likely to be the only liquid stock
available for international investors in the Venezuelan market.
Venezuelan GDP grew by 0.3% in Q1 2000, the first positive growth in nearly
two years, led by the private sector. The recovery seems to be only gradual,
and still weak demand has produced falling inflation (the 12-month rate in May
was only 16.9%, against 20% in December). Election worries also hit
Venezuela, with President Chavez cancelling the poll due on May 28 due to
technical difficulties. A new date has yet to be announced.
We made no changes to our position during the month, and are underweight in
the Andean region as a whole.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/05/00 30/04/00 31/05/00 30/04/00
89.8p 88.9p 91.8p 90.9p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/04/00 30/04/00
Ordinary Shares 71.25p 72.50p
Warrants 21.75p 22.50p
Market exposure
31/05/00 30/04/00
EQUITIES
Argentina 1.4 1.3
Brazil 43.0 37.9
Chile 12.5 10.7
Colombia 0.5 0.6
Mexico 38.0 45.7
Peru 1.7 1.9
Venezuela 1.9 1.8
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 99.0 99.9
Net Current Assets 1.0 0.1
------ -------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
------ -------
Based on total assets less current liabilities of £48.4 million (£51.3
million).
GEARING
Borrowings and Gearing at 31/05/00 30/04/00
£000's £000's
NIL NIL
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £40.5 million equal to 84.5% of total
portfolio)
% of
Country £000's portfolio
Telmex Mexico 6,775 14.1
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 3,049 6.4
Telecom de Chile Chile 2,207 4.6
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,076 4.3
Petrobras Brazil 2,034 4.3
Banco Itau Brazil 2,001 4.2
Tele Centro Sul Brazil 1,895 4.0
Femsa Mexico 1,878 3.9
Unibanco Brazil 1,780 3.7
Brahma Brazil 1,618 3.4
Gerdau Brazil 1,306 2.7
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,277 2.7
Embratel Brazil 1,233 2.6
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,166 2.4
Telesp Celular Brazil 1,154 2.4
Banamex Mexico 1,023 2.1
Cemex Mexico 983 2.1
Kimberly-Clark Mexico 980 2.1
Soriana Mexico 977 2.0
CANTV Venezuela 894 1.9
Alfa Mexico 873 1.8
Enersis Chile 861 1.8
D & S Chile 856 1.8
Credicorp Peru 832 1.7
Grupo IMSA Mexico 732 1.5
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Annual General Meeting 30 June 2000
Subscription date for warrants 30 June 2000
Final dividend paid 4 July 2000
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address:
mark.pope@db.com. Further details of the Morgan Grenfell Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can
be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam.co.uk
Issued by Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by
Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment
Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Morgan Grenfell Latin
American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise
and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in
exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in
Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks
associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or
volatile.