Monthly Report - May 2000

Morgan Grenfell Lat Amer Co Tst PLC 12 June 2000 The Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust supports the AITC its campaign REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2000 SUMMARY May was a better month for the Latin American region than April, although we were still subject to the vagaries of US market sentiment. Most of the rally came late in the month after unexpectedly benign US data releases encouraged investors hoping for a soft landing. The regional index, MSCI Latin America Free, fell 0.8% in sterling terms over the month; however, there were considerable variations within markets. Venezuela was the month's best performer, up 19.3% after a take-over bid for the index's second-largest stock, utility Electricidad de Caracas. Chile rallied strongly as the Finance Minister announced the ending of capital controls on foreign investment in the local market. Brazil put in a good performance, rising 3% in sterling terms, after positive macro news allowed investors to feel more comfortable about the economic recovery despite rising US interest rates. Mexico, in contrast, fell by 6.3% as its strong US-linked growth came under threat from higher interest rates at home and abroad. And sentiment worsened significantly in Argentina after a wider than expected fiscal deficit raised concerns about its ability to meet this year's IMF targets. Our NAV rose by 1.01% during the month, outperforming the market by a comfortable margin. We were helped by our big underweight in Argentina, good stock selection in Chile, and our decision to strongly favour Brazil, where some of our recent purchases have risen significantly. However, the share price fell by 1.7% to 71.25p as the discount widened slightly. It is gratifying to see that despite the recent market volatility, our relative performance has been improving; according to the latest comparative figures (measured by NAV) we were the best-performing Latin trust over the last six months. BRAZIL The Brazilian MSCI index rose 3% in sterling terms in a month characterised by weak volumes. However, the market's steep rebound (+14.8% from its 23 May low) indicates that generally positive sentiment towards Brazil is growing. Macro news during the month was good. GDP growth was announced to have been 3.1% in Q1 2000 and April IPCA inflation came in at only 0.42%, which despite the effects of a minimum wage hike gives a 6.77% annualised figure, down from 6.9% last month. Brazil also showed a healthy primary fiscal surplus for Q1, reflecting the effects of relatively contained spending and good tax revenues. During the month, we saw the first steps in the untangling of the cross- shareholdings between mining group CVRD and steelmaker CSN, which should be beneficial to both companies. We also saw CVRD acquire control of Samitri, the third largest iron ore producer in Brazil, from the Arbed group. The acquisition has a number of strategic positives and demonstrates a welcome focus by CVRD on its core iron ore business. We have also seen the first moves in the consolidation of the telecoms sector in Brazil. After Telefonica's buyout of its subsidiaries was approved by the Brazilian authorities, and Portugal Telecom launched a tender offer for the rest of the common shares in its subsidiary Telesp Celular, Bell South has acquired a significant stake in Tele Centro Oeste. We believe that we will see further consolidation among the smaller cellular companies in order to improve efficiency, particularly since the auction of PCS licences later in the year will only increase competition. During the month, we purchased a new holding in Tele Nordeste Celular, a cellular company controlled by Telecom Italia, in order to benefit from this consolidation theme. The stock had fallen sharply from its March highs and we saw this as an attractive entry opportunity. It has performed very well since our purchase. Our weighting in Brazil has now risen to a significant overweight (43% vs 35% for the MSCI). MEXICO The Mexican market fell 6.29% in sterling terms over the month, making it one of the region's worst performers. This fall adds to its 9% drop in April. Interest rates have risen convincingly, as we expected, with 28-day Cetes moving up over the month from levels below 13% to almost 15.5%. This brings real rates back around a more realistic 5% level, in step with the authorities' need to calm the exuberant domestic economy. Mexican Q1 GDP growth was 7.9%, the fastest growth for nearly three years. This figure was announced on the same day that the US Fed raised rates by 50bp. At the same time, the Mexican Central Bank tightened monetary policy by increasing the 'corto' by a largely symbolic MXP20 million. Inflation still looks benign, up only 0.37% in May and 9.48% YOY. However, the peso has weakened somewhat, which has been blamed on political uncertainties going into the July 2 election. The race still looks close, although the latest polls show Fox losing some momentum and better ratings for the ruling PRI's Labastida. In corporate news, France Telecom announced plans to sell its $2.5bn stake in Telmex in a global public offering in order to raise cash for its recent purchase of Orange. We remain neutral in Mexico. CHILE Last month, the Central Bank announced the elimination of the one-year holding period on foreign investment in the local stock market. This had been widely anticipated, but the actual timing was a surprise. We anticipate that international investors will now start to look seriously at some of the more liquid local stocks, although because local pension funds should be able to invest more abroad the net effect may be fairly neutral. The Finance Minister has also said that capital gains tax for foreigners will be removed in a bill to be put before Congress in the next few months. This news provided some support to the market, which rose 6.2% in sterling terms. Investors were also attracted to Chile for its traditional qualities as a safe haven during regional turbulence, a perception which was helped by the continuing economic recovery. GDP grew 5.5% in Q1, driven by strong consumption and export figures. Our holdings in Enersis and retailer D & S did well. We made no changes to our Chilean portfolio during the month and remain close to neutral. ARGENTINA The Argentine market fell 2.1% in sterling terms during May. Confidence ebbed away after the release of disappointing numbers for the April fiscal deficit, which led to concerns that Argentina might not be able to meet the IMF target of a US$696m deficit for Q200. The Finance Ministry announced a further round of budget cuts totalling $940m in an attempt to meet the targets. The package requires significant public sector wage reductions which are likely to be unpopular with Argentina's powerful unions. Major structural reforms are still needed to reduce the amount of transfers made from the federal government to the provinces. However, the real problem this year is due to the lack of revenues. As the economy has failed to show any real recovery which would provide revenue growth, it is far from clear that the budget cuts alone will allow the government to hit its 2000 deficit target. We remain underweight, and convinced that dollarisation is now inevitable. During the month, the leading Argentine bank Banco de Galicia announced a controversial capital restructuring which will significantly dilute the voting rights of minority shareholders. The stock dived on the news, falling over 20%. The terms of the deal were later slightly improved, but still mean that minority shareholders would have little say in the event of a takeover bid. ANDEAN MARKETS The Andean markets showed a wide variation in performance during the month. Colombia fell by 12.3%, of which about half was due to a further decline in the peso. This was caused by a continued deterioration in the political environment which threatened to jeopardise the reform process. Some rapprochement now seems to have been reached, but the situation remains fragile. Standard and Poors downgraded the country's foreign debt to two notches below investment grade, citing the weak fiscal outlook. Peru fell by 6%, as political tensions escalated ahead of the May 28 Presidential election. President Fujimori's challenger, Alejandro Toledo, called for the elections to be delayed due to considerable irregularities. However the ruling party insisted on going ahead despite protests from international observers. Toledo then urged his supporters to boycott the polls: in the end, 30% of voters invalidated their ballots in protest but a Fujimori win was confirmed. Sanctions and protests from the US and international agencies were feared but now seem unlikely; so far, the OAS has announced it will send a mission to the country in order to strengthen democracy. The elections have taken a toll on Peru's public sector finances; despite rebounding growth (GDP grew 8.6% in Q1 2000) the primary balance has deteriorated from a 1.4% surplus in Q199 to a 0.1% deficit in Q100. The overall fiscal position has picked up since its worst point (Q399) but this means the government now needs to keep a careful control of spending for the rest of the year to meet its IMF targets which may be difficult when it needs to restore confidence and regain public support. Venezuela rose 19.3% in sterling terms during May, largely due to a bid by US utility AES for the index's second-largest stock, Electricidad de Caracas. The stock rose from $13 to $27 as the company's management rejected the offer and launched an aggressive stock buyback programme. After several weeks, AES finally announced that it had gained control of the company. This means that CANTV, the telecoms company we hold, is likely to be the only liquid stock available for international investors in the Venezuelan market. Venezuelan GDP grew by 0.3% in Q1 2000, the first positive growth in nearly two years, led by the private sector. The recovery seems to be only gradual, and still weak demand has produced falling inflation (the 12-month rate in May was only 16.9%, against 20% in December). Election worries also hit Venezuela, with President Chavez cancelling the poll due on May 28 due to technical difficulties. A new date has yet to be announced. We made no changes to our position during the month, and are underweight in the Andean region as a whole. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/05/00 30/04/00 31/05/00 30/04/00 89.8p 88.9p 91.8p 90.9p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/04/00 30/04/00 Ordinary Shares 71.25p 72.50p Warrants 21.75p 22.50p Market exposure 31/05/00 30/04/00 EQUITIES Argentina 1.4 1.3 Brazil 43.0 37.9 Chile 12.5 10.7 Colombia 0.5 0.6 Mexico 38.0 45.7 Peru 1.7 1.9 Venezuela 1.9 1.8 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 99.0 99.9 Net Current Assets 1.0 0.1 ------ ------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 ------ ------- Based on total assets less current liabilities of £48.4 million (£51.3 million). GEARING Borrowings and Gearing at 31/05/00 30/04/00 £000's £000's NIL NIL ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £40.5 million equal to 84.5% of total portfolio) % of Country £000's portfolio Telmex Mexico 6,775 14.1 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 3,049 6.4 Telecom de Chile Chile 2,207 4.6 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,076 4.3 Petrobras Brazil 2,034 4.3 Banco Itau Brazil 2,001 4.2 Tele Centro Sul Brazil 1,895 4.0 Femsa Mexico 1,878 3.9 Unibanco Brazil 1,780 3.7 Brahma Brazil 1,618 3.4 Gerdau Brazil 1,306 2.7 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,277 2.7 Embratel Brazil 1,233 2.6 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,166 2.4 Telesp Celular Brazil 1,154 2.4 Banamex Mexico 1,023 2.1 Cemex Mexico 983 2.1 Kimberly-Clark Mexico 980 2.1 Soriana Mexico 977 2.0 CANTV Venezuela 894 1.9 Alfa Mexico 873 1.8 Enersis Chile 861 1.8 D & S Chile 856 1.8 Credicorp Peru 832 1.7 Grupo IMSA Mexico 732 1.5 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Annual General Meeting 30 June 2000 Subscription date for warrants 30 June 2000 Final dividend paid 4 July 2000 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of the Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam.co.uk Issued by Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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