Report for Month of Sept.2000
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
10 October 2000
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2000
SUMMARY
September was a weak month for equity markets around the world, as concerns
over rising oil prices and weaker third quarter earnings hit share prices
hard, particularly those in the technology, media and telecoms sector. The
Latin American markets were no exception, with the MSCI Latin American Free
Index falling 7.5% in sterling terms over the month. Even harder hit were the
Emerging Asian markets and the US NASDAQ Index due to their high weightings in
technology stocks. Within Latin America, telecoms stocks were generally the
worst performers over the month, in addition to companies exposed to rising
energy prices. Peru was the weakest market in September, down 12% in sterling
terms as President Fujimori's announcement that he would stand down plunged
the country into political crisis. The region's two largest markets, Brazil
and Mexico, fell by 7.9% and 8.8% respectively. However, we believe that
although volatility will persist for a while, as earnings expectations are
readjusted to incorporate a scenario of likely higher commodity prices and
slower growth, the fundamentals of Latin America looking ahead to 2001 are
very attractive and should be recognised again.
Our NAV fell by 8% over the month, just behind the index, due to our higher
weighting in the hard-hit Brazilian telecoms stocks and others such as
Credicorp in Peru which saw big falls. However, other stocks in our portfolio
were actually up for the month, including Brazilian brewer Brahma (now Ambev),
CANTV of Venezuela and Telmex, which announced the spin-off of its wireless
assets. Chile also proved a relatively defensive market. For the third
quarter, our NAV was down 3.7%, in line with the index.
MEXICO
The Mexican market was no stranger to volatility in September, with the peso
sliding from its peak despite the strong oil price, and big moves seen in
individual stocks. Growth continues to be strong, with industrial production
up 5.8% and retail sales rising 10.4% in July. Inflation moved higher than
expected in August, with the CPI figure up 0.6% after a 0.4% rise in July due
to price increases in foodstuffs. Nevertheless, the year-on-year inflation
figure is 9.1%, still within the government's target. The most negative
impact of this strong economic growth has been on the trade accounts. Despite
the high oil price, the trade deficit has worsened significantly, and is
likely to continue to rise as the slowing US economy and lower oil prices
bring down the value of exports, while consumer demand sucks in imports. This
will put pressure on the currency and result in higher interest rates. As a
result, we are growing more cautious on the Mexican market.
During the month, Telmex announced its decision to spin-off its mobile
telephony assets into a newly created vehicle, America Movil, to be listed in
November. This will contain not only its Mexican cellular business but also
its Brazilian wireless licences and other international assets. Also in
September, Mexican cement producer Cemex (the world's third largest) announced
the acquisition of US producer Southdown in a US$2.8bn transaction which
provides them with access to a relatively stable US$ cashflow and a lower cost
of funding. Steelmaker Hylsamex, a subsidiary of conglomerate Alfa, confirmed
that it was to shut down part of its production, which is particularly
affected by high natural gas prices. The stock plunged in response to this
piece of news coming after continued concerns over the effect of the strong
peso on Alfa's export revenues. During the month we added a position in low-
income homebuilder Geo, which we expect to benefit from a renewed emphasis on
social programmes from the Fox administration, as well as from improving
cashflows due to debt reduction and its exit from a poorly-performing US joint
venture. It is trading at a considerable discount to its peer, Consorcio Ara.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian market fell by 7.9% in sterling over the month; the biggest
declines were posted in telecoms stocks, both cellular and fixed line.
Inflation concerns, largely due to the pass-through of higher global oil
prices, prevented the Central Bank from cutting interest rates. The August
CPI figure for Sao Paulo was 1.6%, higher than the July figure of 1.44%, and
bringing YTD inflation to 3.9%. Most of the uptick has been caused by higher
food prices. However, September's figures released this week showed a
significant improvement: the rate slowed to 0.3%. Other economic data was
broadly positive, confirming the ongoing recovery. Industrial production rose
6.8% YOY in July and 7.7% in August, led by capital goods and consumer
durables. However, the strong recovery has led to a rise in imports, which
has meant that the year to date trade surplus has been eroded. Imports are no
longer restricted to oil and intermediate goods, but now include consumer and
capital goods as well. Exports are still performing well, led by manufactured
goods.
The fiscal performance of Brazil has been very strong; it recorded a primary
surplus of R6.5bn in August, some R2.2bn above the Q3 target. In particular,
tax collection has been rising due to the economic recovery, and states are
now prevented from spending these revenues under the fiscal responsibility
legislation. As a result, the consolidated primary surplus should reach
around 3.5% of GDP at YE2000, and the nominal deficit should fall to between
3% and 4% of GDP.
In company news, brewer Brahma became Ambev following its take-over of rival
Antartica and listing of the merged entity on the NYSE. The share was
extremely strong during the month (up 10% in USD) as the management embarked
on an international roadshow, explaining to investors the cost savings and
top-line enhancement they foresee for the merged company as a result of
its considerable market power. Ambev also benefited from its status as a
blue-chip consumer play. Retailer Pao de Acucar is also seeing positive
same-storesales growth, led by its Eletro white goods and consumer electronics
division.
We made no major changes to our portfolio during the month.
CHILE
The Chilean market was relatively defensive in September, down only 3.8% in
sterling terms despite continued weakness in the currency. Copper prices have
held firm. July's Imacec, which measures GDP growth, rose 8.1%, above the
4.8% registered in June. However, the Central Bank cut its forecasts for
annual GDP growth back to 5.6% for 2000 (from 5.9%) and 5.7% from 2001 (from
6.2%), reflecting the weakness of the domestic economy. Retail sales fell in
August, the first decline this year, showing the low level of consumer demand.
Inflation rose slightly in August as rising transport costs reflected the
higher oil price. Indications received from Chilean companies show some
incipient recovery in domestic consumption, and we believe that the market
should show better performance as this is confirmed. We also believe that
there is the likelihood of corporate activity as Telefonica de Espana
consolidates its regional presence.
ARGENTINA
The market fell by 5.6% in sterling over the month as weak August industrial
production data (down 0.7% YOY) and poor Q2 GDP growth (0.8%) continued to
depress expectations of recovery. Exports are benefiting from the high oil
price, with imports subdued due to weak domestic demand. Fiscal targets have
now been renegotiated with the IMF; the futility of imposing further cuts (and
thus further undermining confidence and depressing tax receipts) seems to have
been recognised. This change may allow some fiscal stimulation of the
economy, which when combined with recovery in neighbouring Brazil and Chile
and an improvement in the terms of trade may have a chance of success. This
is however a high-risk strategy. Valuations of Argentine stocks remain high
and liquidity poor and we remain underweight.
ANDEAN MARKETS
The main focus during the month was in Peru where President Fujimori announced
that he would step down after early elections next year. After his
controversial re-election in May, he had seemed to want to press ahead with
policies designed to tighten fiscal policy and stimulate increased investment
and stronger internal demand. However a bribery scandal involving his
security adviser Montesinos made both their positions untenable. The
respected finance minister Carlos Bolona has committed to stay on during the
transition period, and the OAS are working with the government and opposition
to prepare the elections. However, this change has heightened political
uncertainty in the country and makes it less likely that investors will be
willing to commit funds to the relaunched privatisation process. The other
Andean markets performed relatively better, buoyed by the strong oil price and
indications of economic recovery. We made no changes to our portfolio during
the month.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
30/09/00 31/08/00 30/09/00 31/08/00
95.3p 104.4p 96.2p 103.5p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/09/00 31/08/00
Ordinary Shares 78.50p 80.50p
Warrants 20.25p 22.00p
Market exposure
30/09/00 31/08/00
EQUITIES
Argentina 1.4 1.3
Brazil 47.5 47.9
Chile 11.1 10.0
Colombia 0.4 0.4
Mexico 36.3 36.5
Peru 0.6 1.1
Venezuela 1.5 1.4
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.8 98.6
Net Current Assets 1.2 1.4
------ -------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
------ -------
Based on total assets less current liabilities of £50.7 million (£55.6
million).
GEARING
Borrowings and Gearing at 30/09/00 31/08/00
£000's £000's
NIL NIL
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £44.7 million equal to 89.2% of total
portfolio)
% of
Country £000's portfolio
Telmex Mexico 7,339 14.6
Petrobras Brazil 3,895 7.8
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 3,254 6.5
Unibanco Brazil 2,745 5.5
Banco Itau Brazil 2,273 4.5
Gerdau Brazil 2,063 4.1
Ambev Brazil 2,001 4.0
Telecom de Chile Chile 1,951 3.9
Femsa Mexico 1,945 3.9
Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,741 3.4
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,635 3.3
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,416 2.8
Banamex Mexico 1,341 2.7
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,322 2.6
Telenordeste Celular Brazil 1,254 2.5
Soriana Mexico 1,003 2.0
Enersis Chile 997 2.0
Cemex Mexico 927 1.9
Embratel Brazil 876 1.7
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 847 1.7
Telesp Celular Brazil 836 1.7
CANTV Venezuela 777 1.6
CSN Brazil 769 1.5
D & S Chile 764 1.5
Eletrobras Brazil 745 1.5
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Interim report posted 2 November 2000
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address:
mark.pope@db.com. Further details of the Deutsche Latin American Companies
Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on
the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management
Regulatory Organisation and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a
guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not
get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also
affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets
which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.