Report for MonthofAugust 2000
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
13 September 2000
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2000
SUMMARY
August was a better month for Latin American markets, with the MSCI Latin
America Free Index rising 5.3% in sterling terms. Mexico and Brazil were the
strongest markets, up 7% and 5.3% respectively. Good economic news and higher
oil prices boosted the Mexican currency and stock market, while Brazil was
driven by news of a likely rating upgrade from Moody's, the successful
placement of a $5bn 40-year bond, and by positive economic data. Argentina
and Colombia underperformed.
Latin America showed better performance than the rest of Emerging Markets
although it lagged the developing markets: overall the MSCI EMF Index rose by
3.3% while the MSCI World Index rose by 6.2% on strong gains in the US
markets, led by NASDAQ (+11.6% in USD).
Our performance during August was strong. Our NAV rose by 7.7%, well ahead of
the index, boosted by good stock selection. Weak demand in the UK market for
Latin American trusts meant that our share price lagged during the month,
rising by only 0.9%. For the half year ending 31 August, our NAV rose 5.1%
against an index up only 0.5%.
We reiterate our overweight Brazil, neutral Mexico and Chile and underweight
Argentina stance, although we recognise that consensus has to some extent
moved towards our views. Our focus for the second half will be to build on
our improving track record in stock selection to add value for shareholders.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian market rose by 5.3% over the month in sterling terms. Although
there was an uptick in inflation, which dashed the local market's hopes of
another interest rate cut during the month, this was caused by a rise in
government-administered prices and seasonal rises in agricultural goods. More
recent data shows inflation pressures moderating and we expect the downward
trend in interest rates to resume this autumn. The currency weakened slightly
on inflation concerns and on worries over Argentina, but overall local
economic news was positive. Moody's confirmed that it placed Brazil on review
for an upgrade of its sovereign debt rating. Q2 GDP growth was 3.9% YOY,
ahead of Q1's figure of 3.8%, and driven by agriculture and services. This
strong economic growth together with a deterioration in the terms of trade,
the weak Euro and limited excess manufacturing capacity has meant that the
trade accounts are now only showing a small surplus; though exports rose by
29% YOY in August, imports grew by almost 22% over the same period.
However, higher growth and lower interest rates are transforming the fiscal
accounts: for the 12 months to June, the nominal fiscal deficit
(including interest payments) was 3.9% of GDP (against 9% a year ago) while
the primary surplus rose to 3.6%. Second-quarter results were, on balance,
positive for the companies we follow, reflecting economic growth. The month's
best performing stocks included Petrobras, up 18% in USD since the secondary
issue: aircraft manufacturer Embraer, also well above its ADR listing price;
retailer Pao de Acucar, on hopes of strong consumption and the resolution of a
stock overhang; and Banespa, on renewed privatisation hopes. We benefited
from our overweight in Petrobras; Unibanco also did well on the news that it
would be included in the MSCI Index from 1 September. Steelmaker CSN also
performed well, as the cross-holding situation between it and CVRD moved
further towards resolution; strong rallies in Tele Norte Leste, Gerdau and
Itau also helped performance.
During the month, we trimmed our overweight position in Brahma after a strong
run. We are meeting with management next week for the first time since the
merger with Antartica was announced, and will question them closely on the
execution risk of the deal as well as the likely upside from enhanced market
power. We also added our holding in to Petrobras, which has increased its
weight in the MSCI Index as a result of the recent issue.
MEXICO
The Mexican market did well in August, up 7% in sterling terms as the currency
strengthened to a 5-month high of P9.2 against the dollar. Interest rates
fell as lower inflation numbers (9.1% YOY for July) were helped by the strong
currency. In another indication of its improved fundamentals, Mexico
announced the prepayment of US$3bn in debt due to the IMF. Q2 GDP growth was
7.6% and averaged 7.8% for H1 2000: growth was led by commerce, up 13%, while
manufacturing was also strong. The high oil price has led to an 18% YOY jump
in oil revenues for the government, bringing a 0.4% fiscal surplus for H100,
and also continues to flatter the trade figures, despite strong growth in
consumer imports.
The best performing stocks over the month included the major retailers, on a
continued uptick in consumption; Grupo Mexico, on stronger copper prices and
firm plans for an ADR listing; and the blue chips Femsa, Banacci and Kimberley
Clark. We benefited from a 15% rise in the USD value of northern retailer
Soriana, which had lagged US-owned rival Wal-mex year to date; our holding in
homebuilder Ara also did well. However, steel processor Imsa fell 17% on poor
sentiment for exporters and steel stocks. During the month we reduced our
holding in Gissa due to concerns over the impact on margins of the strong
peso, slowing US growth and the tight Mexican labour market.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine market was weak, down -0.5% in sterling terms, hit by renewed
investor concerns over the likelihood of Argentina reaching its fiscal targets
with the IMF. The government has now publicly acknowledged that these will
need to be renegotiated, mainly due to lower than expected growth. The
official estimate for 2000 GDP growth was cut to 3% from 3.5% and the Ministry
of Finance has now started to talk about a figure of less than 2.5%. There
have however been signs of an improvement in the external sector; exports grew
13% in H100 while weak domestic demand meant that imports rose by only 1.9%.
A bribery scandal hit Congress, further affecting investor confidence. There
is no doubt that most foreign and domestic investors are underweight Argentine
equities, and that as a result we should be alert to any signs of a bottoming
in growth. However, we remain sceptical of the market's medium-term
prospects. We made no change to our holdings during the month.
CHILE
The Chilean market rose by only 4.6% in August despite a rate cut, as the
currency weakened substantially against the dollar. The sluggish recovery in
domestic demand prompted the Central Bank to reverse the two rate rises
implemented since the start of the year, taking rates back to a stimulative
5%. This was clearly in response to disappointing data releases including a
rise in unemployment to 10.2% in July and slower-than-expected industrial
production figures. Though headline inflation in July was 3.8%, affected by
the rising oil price, core inflation of 2.7% is still in line with the bank's
target. It cited the low level of inflation and the government's responsible
fiscal stance as factors mitigating the risks of a rate cut. At the same time
the government announced a package of measures to tackle unemployment and
stimulate internal demand. Utility Enersis announced a long-awaited $1bn
capital increase to reduce leverage. This news sent Enersis stock down 11%
for the month in USD. However, we were helped by a strong rise in CTC
(+17.5%), our largest holding, after its weak performance year to date.
During the month we trimmed our overweight in retailer D&S on valuation
concerns given the weak outlook for retail sales.
ANDEAN MARKETS
The smaller markets showed a divergent performance during the month, with
Colombia falling by 9.8%, giving back recent gains, Peru rising on optimism
over a conservative post-election fiscal package, and Venezuela up by only
1.6% despite the strength of the oil price. The most notable events up during
the month were announcements made in Peru by President Fujimori and his new
Finance Minister, Carlos Bolona. They have reiterated their commitment to the
IMF fiscal targets, which will mean real spending cuts in the second half of
2000 to bring the fiscal deficit to 2.1% as agreed; by 2001 this figure should
narrow to 1.4% as the benefits of the relaunched privatisation programme
should become evident. It is hoped that privatisation will stimulate
investment and therefore support domestic demand. Other confidence-boosting
measures included a scheme to reduce the debt burden on local companies. The
government expects GDP growth of 5% in 2000 and 5.5% in 2001, after H1 growth
reached 6% driven by fishing and manufacturing.
During the month we reduced our weighting in Peru's leading bank, Credicorp,
which has suffered from ongoing asset quality problems, weakness in its
insurance subsidiary and the poor performance of its Colombian franchise.
However, the bank should eventually benefit from an upturn in the economy and
it may also be a take-over candidate; it is trading well below its franchise
value and we are keeping it as a neutral weighting.
We benefited from the 4% rise in the share price of Venezuelan telecoms
company CANTV over the month, as well as the 10% price rise in Credicorp
(which we used to reduce our weighting). However, our other regional holding
brewer Bavaria in Colombia fell by 8.5%, though it outperformed the local
market, spooked by renewed guerrilla violence despite stronger economic data
releases.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/08/00 31/07/00 31/08/00 31/07/00
104.4p 96.9p 103.5p 97.5p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/08/00 31/07/00
Ordinary Shares 80.50p 79.75p
Warrants 22.00p 22.00p
Market exposure
31/08/00 31/07/00
% %
EQUITIES
Argentina 1.3 1.4
Brazil 47.9 47.6
Chile 10.0 9.9
Colombia 0.4 0.4
Mexico 36.5 36.4
Peru 1.1 1.3
Venezuela 1.4 1.5
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.6 98.5
Net Current Assets 1.4 1.5
------ -------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
------ -------
Based on total assets less current liabilities of £55.6 million (£51.6
million).
GEARING
Borrowings and Gearing at 31/08/00 31/07/00
£000's £000's
NIL NIL
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £48.9 million equal to 89.2% of total
portfolio)
% of
Country £000's portfolio
Telmex Mexico 7,745 14.1
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 3,686 6.7
Petrobras Brazil 3,450 6.3
Unibanco Brazil 2,921 5.3
Banco Itau Brazil 2,550 4.7
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,351 4.3
Gerdau Brazil 2,345 4.3
Femsa Mexico 2,309 4.2
Brasil Telecom Brazil 2,188 4.0
Telecom de Chile Chile 2,011 3.7
Brahma Brazil 1,853 3.4
Telenordeste Celular Brazil 1,644 3.0
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,615 2.9
Banamex Mexico 1,512 2.8
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,431 2.6
Soriana Mexico 1,203 2.2
Cemex Mexico 1,101 2.0
Embratel Brazil 1,052 1.9
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 1,019 1.9
Telesp Celular Brazil 948 1.7
Sider Nacional Brazil 899 1.6
D & S Chile 819 1.5
CANTV Venezuela 795 1.5
Eletrobras Brazil 729 1.3
PC Holdings Argentina 719 1.3
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Half year 31 August 2000
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address:
mark.pope@db.com. Further details of the Deutsche Latin American Companies
Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on
the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management
Regulatory Organisation and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a
guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not
get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also
affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets
which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.