Report for November 2000

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 14 December 2000 REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2000 SUMMARY November showed another big drop in Latin American markets; the MSCI Latin America Free Index fell by 7% in sterling terms, down over 20% year to date. Global uncertainties over a slowdown in company earnings, the outcome of the US presidential elections, and still high energy prices, were compounded by concerns over the situation in Argentina and a liquidity crisis in Turkey. Our largest markets, Brazil and Mexico, led the decline, down 9.1% and 8.0% respectively in sterling terms, with index-heavy telecoms and media stocks falling hardest in line with those sectors' performance in world markets. As a result of our geared position in these markets and our relatively high level of telecoms exposure, our NAV fell by 9.8%, underperforming the index. Our share price saw much less of a move, falling by only 2.9% as the discount tightened to 14.3% in line with a trend seen throughout the Emerging Markets investment trust sector. During the month we bought back an additional 1,080,000 shares drawing down further on our loan facility, so that at month end we were 9.3% geared. Since the month end, however, we have seen more encouraging developments which include an easing of concerns over Argentina and Turkey, a drop in oil prices and indications of interest rate cuts in the US, which have allowed Latin American markets, particularly Brazil, to begin to stage a recovery. If these factors remain in place we would expect a sustained improvement in valuations from the lows of recent weeks. BRAZIL The Brazilian market was the region's weakest performer in November, down 9.1% in sterling terms, as the poor sentiment over Argentina and high oil prices led to concerns that interest rate cuts may be delayed, holding back economic growth next year. An announcement that the minimum wage would rise by 19% to R180/month with effect from April 2001 also affected the market. Despite the poor sentiment, we had several positive pieces of news during the month. BSCH paid US$3.5bn for a 30% stake in Sao Paulo state bank Banespa, beating off much lower bids from Unibanco and Bradesco. With this acquisition BSCH becomes the third largest private sector bank in Brazil, showing its determination to increase in scale in order to take advantage of the rapidly growing banking market. Shares of the major Brazilian banks rallied strongly on relief that they had not overpaid for Banespa and a perception that BSCH would not be a strong competitor in the near term. On the day the proceeds were received, the Brazilian Central Bank actually took action to avoid an appreciation of the currency and therefore potential further erosion in the trade balance. GDP growth was announced to have been 4.5% in Q3, led by the industrial sector. Despite lower forecasts for global growth, Central Bank head Arminio Fraga is still forecasting growth of 4.5% for next year. This growth combined with fiscal discipline is allowing the primary surplus target to be easily met. Inflation is still subdued, with recent fuel price increases offset by food price deflation after a good harvest. IPCA inflation for the year to October was 6.4%, comfortably within the government's target range of 6-8%. Arminio Fraga recently reiterated his 4% inflation target for next year despite the above-inflation rise in the minimum wage: we are comfortable with this forecast due to the substantial excess capacity in the economy and the labour market. The recent steep drop in the oil price has led to expectations of a resumption of the interest rate cutting cycle, possibly before year-end. The only obvious weakness today is the deteriorating trade deficit, due largely to the rise in oil imports and surging imports of capital and intermediate goods. We take this a sign of domestic recovery and are not overly concerned, particularly given the strong inflows of FDI. During the month the main underperformers were telecoms and media stocks. Cyclical companies such as steel makers Gerdau and Usiminas and pulp and paper makers VCP and Aracruz sold off on concerns over a global hard landing. Shares in Banespa rebounded after the sale of a controlling stake to BSCH, although minority shareholders in the former will be unlikely to receive anything like the premium achieved by the government. We suffered from the sell-off in telecoms and steel and the weakness of Unibanco. We reduced our weighting in cellular telecoms early in the month with the sale of Telenordeste Celular and also sold down Eletrobras. We remain confident that our Brazil overweight is justified from both a top down and a bottom up basis, with earnings growth supportive of valuations. MEXICO Mexico fell by 8% during November in sterling terms. As in Brazil, the weakness in the Mexican market can largely be attributed to global concerns as well as to delays in the appointments to President Fox's cabinet. In the end, the new team of Francisco Gil Diaz as Finance Minster and Luis Ernesto Derbez as Economy Minister, together with other key appointments were generally well received by the markets. But it was concern over a possible hard landing in the US and fears of higher inflation in Mexico that caused short term interest rates to rise to over 9% in real terms and sent media, telecoms and cyclical stocks down by over 10% in dollars. There has so far been little sign of a real deceleration in growth in Mexico, despite the slowdown visible in its northern neighbour. Q300 GDP grew by 7%, still robust although below Q2's figure of 7.6%. Inflation was 0.86% in November, higher than 0.69% in October and running at 8.9% year on year. Companies are reporting significant wage pressures and difficulties in recruiting and retaining staff. Consumption is strong and this is fuelling the trade deficit. The current strength of the oil price has supported the currency and masked much of the deterioration in trade; however we remain concerned that Mexico is heavily exposed to a drop in US demand and a fall in oil prices. We also feel that Mexican earnings growth has probably peaked. The only stocks showing positive returns in November were those with relatively poor liquidity. Media, telecoms and cyclical stocks were the worst performers, along with retailers. We made no changes to our portfolio during the month and remain neutral in the market. ARGENTINA The Argentine market was weak in November, down 7.3% in sterling terms. Expectations of an IMF package to secure next year's funding requirement kept the market volatile. The main details of the IMF plan seem to be the following: a short term fiscal easing, accompanied by a 5- year freeze on provincial spending which seeks to make the provinces more fiscally responsible, and reforms to the pension and healthcare system, to achieve a longer term tightening. The Ministry of Economy has recognised that the fiscal deficits for 2000 and 2001 will be higher in absolute terms and instead of attempting an annual reduction, the deficit will now be kept at a level of around 2.2% of GDP to 2002. Importantly, for the first time the consolidated fiscal deficit is being targeted, which includes the provinces in the fiscal effort. An agreement has already been reached with the provincial governors to limit spending and the 2001 budget was approved this week in the Lower House, although disappointingly Congress is relying on the President to take the blame for public sector salary cuts. Pension and social security reform is also under discussion. The IMF is set to announce the size of the financial package, rumoured to contain both upfront cash and contingent credit lines, over the next few days. This is a high risk strategy as the IMF is recognised to be the de-facto lender of last resort to Argentina by underwriting the revised fiscal targets. However, it seems that the IMF's involvement has improved the political climate and enabled the passage of key reforms. We considered the original economic plan doomed to failure. Fiscal stimulation of the economy coincident with an economic recovery in Brazil and Chile and an improvement in some of the terms of trade may have a chance of success. However, a greater degree of political order is required to encourage renewed consumer spending and private investment, and we cannot bet on an improvement in soft commodity prices and/or a weakening in the dollar against the euro to turn around the balance of payments. We therefore think these measures are still insufficient to solve the country's long term problems. The weakest stock in November was Telecom Argentina (down 15% in USD) affected by both a de-rating in global telecoms stocks as well as by concerns over the local economy. We sold our holding in energy group Perez Companc during the month and currently have a zero weighting in the market, preferring to play any upside through Brazil. CHILE The Chilean market outperformed in November, rising by 2% in sterling terms. This was due to tender offers being launched on several stocks in the utility sector, as well as to the Chilean market's relatively defensive nature. We have talked for some of the domestic economy lagging the strength of the export sector. Q3 GDP growth was 5.8%, still led by exports as domestic confidence weakened over the quarter. However we have more recently seen the first signs of improvement in domestic demand, as October showed a rebound in industrial production and a fall in unemployment. Credit for the improvement can be given to the Central Bank's rate cut and a recent government package designed to stimulate domestic demand. Higher oil prices have however led to rising inflation, with 12-month CPI running at 4.7%, above the Central Bank's 4.5% year end target. We have remained close to neutral in Chile, where the best performing stocks in November were utility Gener, for which AES of the US launched a takeover offer, and Chilectra, in the process of being bought out by its parent Enersis. Telecoms and retail underperformed. We made no changes to our portfolio during the month. ANDEAN MARKETS The smaller markets performed relatively well in November, mostly due to a lack of liquidity. Colombia rose by 0.9% in sterling terms, while both Venezuela and Peru fell by 5.3%. The main event was the resignation of Peru's President Fujimori while on a trip to Japan, and his replacement by interim President Valentin Paniagua. Peruvian growth was weak in September and October, and S&P cut Peru's long-term foreign debt rating to BB- citing the impact of political uncertainty on foreign investment, financing costs and the economic reform agenda. New elections are set for July 2001. Elsewhere, we have seen a continued recovery in Colombia, where Q3 GDP rose by 3% YOY, led by exports and manufacturing. Retail sales grew 5.1% in September, showing some strength in consumer spending. In Venezuela, the government announced a further 9% increase in spending for next year, including a 10% pay increase for government employees, funded by strong oil revenues. The recent fiscal push has already begun to produce a strong short- term recovery in activity: Q3 growth was 3.3%, with a strong rise in retail sales and a fall in unemployment. Inflation is still relatively subdued, at 14.2% YOY in November. We have recently seen a strong 25% rally in shares of Venezuelan telecoms company CANTV on speculation of a takeover bid. We made no changes to our portfolio in these markets during the month. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 30/11/00 31/10/00 30/11/00 31/10/00 83.2p 92.2p 86.7p 93.7p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/11/00 31/10/00 Ordinary Shares 74.25p 76.50p Warrants 16.75p 18.25p Market exposure 30/11/00 31/10/00 EQUITIES Argentina - 1.3 Brazil 49.7 49.0 Chile 13.0 11.7 Colombia 0.5 0.4 Mexico 43.0 41.8 Peru - 0.4 Venezuela 1.4 1.4 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 107.6 106.0 Net Current Assets (7.6) (6.0) ------ -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 ------ -------- Based on total assets less current liabilities of £41.3 million (£46.8 million). GEARING Borrowings and Gearing at 30/11/00 31/10/00 £000's £000's 3,503 3,365 ==== ==== 9.3% 7.8% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £41.0 million equal to 92.3% of total portfolio) % of Country £000's portfolio Telmex Mexico 6,746 15.2 Petrobras Brazil 3,640 8.2 Banco Ita£ Brazil 3,056 6.9 Ambev Brazil 2,968 6.7 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 2,702 6.1 Unibanco Brazil 2,056 4.6 Femsa Mexico 1,899 4.3 Telecom de Chile Chile 1,734 3.9 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,442 3.2 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,371 3.1 Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,360 3.1 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,356 3.0 Gerdau Brazil 1,333 3.0 Banamex Mexico 1,254 2.8 Enersis Chile 1,007 2.3 Cemex Mexico 931 2.1 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 840 1.9 Soriana Mexico 836 1.9 D & S Chile 823 1.8 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 765 1.7 Sider Nacional Brazil 674 1.5 Embratel Brazil 621 1.4 Telesp Celular Brazil 561 1.3 CANTV Venezuela 551 1.2 Corp Geo Mexico 513 1.1 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of the Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/ Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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