Report for the Month of February 2000
Morgan Grenfell Lat Amer Co Tst PLC
16 March 2000
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Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2000
SUMMARY
Latin America staged a rebound in February after the previous month's losses.
The announcement by Moody's on February 2 that it was considering raising its
ratings on Mexican debt caused a strong rally in the Mexican stock market.
Latin American markets also experienced some relief after the US Fed raised
rates by only 25bps at its February meeting. For the month, the MSCI Latin
America Free Index rose 10.55% in sterling terms, outperforming MSCI World
(+2.96%) as well as the overall global emerging markets index (4.03%). The
strongest markets were Venezuela (+22%) boosted by the steady rise in oil
prices, Mexico (16.7%) and Argentina (+16.6%).
During the month, our NAV rose 9.85%, slightly behind the rise in the index.
The main reasons for our underperformance were our underweights in Argentina
and Venezuela and our stock selection in Mexico, where we did not hold many of
the market's most high-beta names. However, stock selection in Brazil was a
major positive. Our share price rose 7.67% to 84.25p with the discount
remaining more or less flat at 15.2%.
MEXICO
The prospect of Moody's raising Mexico's foreign currency debt rating to
investment grade, which we have long believed would happen this year, came
closer in February. Indeed the upgrade has just been confirmed as we write
this report. This prospect dominated stock market activity over the month, as
investors sought out companies likely to benefit from lower financing costs.
The upgrade has much wider and very positive implications for the market,
raising the prospect of a broader investor base for both equity and debt
securities, reinforcing already-strong capital flows (FDI reached US$11.9
billion in 1999) and, together with a firm oil price, contributing to a
stronger currency in 2000, which in turn should benefit inflation.
Recent macroeconomic releases from Mexico have been good; Q4 99 GDP was a
stronger than expected 5.2%, with full year 1999 GDP growth reaching 3.7%.
The fiscal deficit ended the year at just 1.15% of GDP, and inflation figures
for January and February were subdued, so that the official target of 10% for
2000 looks achievable. Our only concern is the potential expansion of the
current account deficit as the economy grows. On the political front, the
PRI's candidate, Francisco Labastida, saw his lead narrow and even vanish
against Vicente Fox of the PAN in several polls indicating voter preferences
ahead of the July Presidential election.
The banking sector seems set for major change as Spain's BBVA announced its
interest in acquiring Mexico's second largest bank, Bancomer, and the
government prepares to push through the sale of the third largest, Serfin.
We think the fact that a European bank is prepared to buy and recapitalise
Bancomer is a major positive for the banking sector and for the whole economy.
S&P cited fragility in the financial sector as a major reason why it would not
consider a rating change before the election.
During the month we sold our holding in beverage company Coca Cola Femsa which
had seen a steep rise in its share price. We added to our weighting in its
parent company Femsa, which also owns one of Mexico's two largest brewers. We
also reduced our holding in media company Televisa after the share price rose
well above our target. Nevertheless, we maintained our Mexican overweight.
BRAZIL
The MSCI Brazilian Free Index rose only 7% in February, less than the rise
recorded for the region as a whole. This was despite some very strong rallies
in several of the cellular stocks in particular: many of the major index
constituents were weak.
Overall macroeconomic news in the Brazilian market was positive. Inflation
figures for February were subdued, the currency has been stable at around the
R1.73 level and the primary fiscal surplus for 1999 came in at R31bn, well
above the IMF target. These releases all indicate scope for interest rate
reductions in the near future, although rates were again left unchanged last
month. Statistics showed a significant increase in both industrial sales and
capacity utilisation in Q499, earnings releases on balance have been strong.
Nevertheless, the economy is showing unmistakable signs of growth.
S&P changed its outlook on Brazil's foreign debt from stable to positive and
upgraded the rating on long-term local currency debt. This improving backdrop
allowed Brazil to launch a well received US$1 billion 30-year global bond at
679bps over US Treasuries.
During the month we sold our small holding in Rio de Janeiro electricity
distributor Cerj, and took some profits in fixed line telecoms company Tele
Norte Leste. We added instead to our holding in Telesp Cellular, which has
experienced significant subscriber growth.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine market rose 16.6% in February, with strong performance in
particular from Telefonica de Argentina after the bid from Telefonica of Spain
that we discussed last month, and from Banco Rio which was the subject of a
tender offer from its controlling shareholder BSCH.
Details of the US$7.4 billion IMF standby loan for Argentina were announced,
requiring both a significant reduction in the fiscal deficit and social
security and labour reforms. Economic data releases were mixed at best, with
private sector employment and supermarket sales falling in January from
December, although industrial production rose YOY in January. We continue to
believe that Argentina will struggle to meet its fiscal targets without
choking off economic growth this year, and its significant dependence on
external funding is still of real concern. The market now looks expensive, as
the recent spate of tender offers have reduced the available investment
options for the local pension funds, driving up valuations in the remaining
stocks. Given this negative backdrop, we further reduced our weight in Banco
de Galicia during the month.
CHILE
The MSCI Chilean Index fell 0.41% in sterling terms in February. Although the
Central Bank left local interest rates unchanged during the month, the recent
strength of the economy, which grew 4.9% YOY in December, leads us to expect a
further rise in rates in March. The Chilean peso has strengthened
significantly, up 4.2% since the start of the year, so that despite the
economic recovery consumer inflation has so far remained subdued.
During the month, we reduced our holding in Coke bottler Andina, due to our
concern over the outlook for its franchises in Brazil and Argentina.
ANDEAN MARKETS
Venezuela was the strongest performer in the region in February due to a new
tariff agreement reached between the government and telephone company CANTV,
which rallied over 40% during the month. The stronger oil price provided a
firm background to the government's outline of its 2000 budget.
Peru rose 11.26% following the Telefonica bid for TDP and the announcement
that December GDP grew by 9% based on a strong performance by the export
sector. Stronger growth was also reflected in higher value-added tax
collection. The concession for the huge Camisea gas field was finally granted
to an international consortium (Pluspetrol, Hunt Oil Co and SK Group) which
will invest $400m into the field through 2003.
The Colombian market fell 12.85%, erasing the gains made in January when it
was the region's best performing market. Weak auto sales figures and an
annualised figure for January CPI of 8.3%, the lowest in 20 years, point to
continuing weakness in the economic environment.
During the month we took some profits in TDP which was already reflecting most
of the value of the Telefonica offer.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
29/02/00 31/01/00 29/02/00 31/01/00
99.2p 90.3p 99.3p 92.0p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 29/02/00 31/01/00
Ordinary Shares 84.25p 78.25p
Warrants 26.75p 25.00p
Market exposure
29/02/00 31/01/00
EQUITIES
Argentina 1.9 3.9
Brazil 37.5 37.5
Chile 10.0 11.2
Colombia 0.7 0.8
Mexico 44.2 41.7
Peru 3.2 3.6
Other - -
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 97.5 98.7
Net Current Assets 2.5 1.3
------ -------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
------ -------
Based on total assets less current liabilities of £59.7 million
(£55.4million).
GEARING
Borrowings and Gearing at 29/02/00 31/01/00
£000's £000's
NIL NIL
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £49.2 million equal to 84.6% of total
portfolio)
% of
Country £000's portfolio
Telmex Mexico 9,912 17.0
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 3,214 5.5
Femsa Mexico 2,638 4.5
Telesp Brazil 2,289 3.9
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,196 3.8
Petrobras Brazil 2,181 3.8
Tele Centro Sul Brazil 2,156 3.7
Banco Itau Brazil 1,997 3.4
Banamex Mexico 1,783 3.1
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,766 3.0
Unibanco Brazil 1,568 2.7
Telesp Celular Brazil 1,554 2.7
Telecom de Chile Chile 1,482 2.5
Gerdau Brazil 1,425 2.5
Soriana Mexico 1,420 2.4
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,418 2.4
Embratel Brazil 1,338 2.3
Quinenco Chile 1,330 2.3
Brahma Brazil 1,310 2.3
Cemex Mexico 1,291 2.2
Alfa Mexico 1,198 2.1
Gissa Mexico 1,048 1.8
PC Holdings Argentina 929 1.6
Desc Mexico 901 1.6
Kimberly-Clark Mexico 865 1.5
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Preliminary Results Announced 26 April 2000
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 0207-545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 0207-545-0520, e-mail address:
mark.pope@db.com
Issued by Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by
Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment
Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Morgan Grenfell Latin
American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise
and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in
exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in
Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks
associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or
volatile.