Report for the Month of November 1999
Morgan Grenfell Lat Amer Co Tst PLC
14 December 1999
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 1999
SUMMARY
November was a strong month for Latin American markets, which continued in the
more positive tone set by the last two weeks of October. In sterling terms,
the MSCI Latin American Free Index rose by 16.02%, outperforming both the MSCI
World Index (up 5.94%) and MSCI Emerging Markets Free (up 12.26%) by a wide
margin during the month. The largest markets, Mexico and Brazil, led the
region with significant gains (up 17.5% and 22.4% respectively).
Trading volumes are much improved in the larger markets and we have seen
buying by both local and international investors, including some global funds.
This was despite a 25bp rise in US interest rates and a pause in the rate-
cutting cycle in Brazil. Though the positive trend has continued into early
December, we expect markets to be more subdued going into the year end.
During November our net asset value rose by 15.15%, just below the rise
recorded by the index. However, our share price rose by 16.2%, outperforming
the index as the discount narrowed. Overall, our market positioning was
correct, but we saw strong moves in some stocks we do not own in Brazil, Chile
and Mexico, which held back performance.
BRAZIL
Brazil's equity market put in a strong performance in November, although
uncertainty over the inflationary outlook meant that the COPOM monetary policy
committee decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 19% and to move to a
neutral from an easing bias. Inflation was higher than expected in November
due to some one-off price hikes and seasonal pressures on food prices. The
latest figures seem to show that inflationary pressures have eased in early
December, as might be expected given the weakness of overall demand in the
economy; we are looking for a year-end inflation figure of no more than 8%.
Fiscal performance has been on track, and the currency has strengthened albeit
with some Central Bank intervention. Local investors were very active buyers
of the equity market, with exporters and other selected blue-chips their
favourite stocks.
During the month we reduced our position in fixed line telecoms company Telesp
on concerns over restructuring by its controlling shareholder, Telefonica
Internacional ('TISA'). Lack of transparency over TISA's intentions had made
the stock underperform in Q399; we reduced our position after it rallied in
November. The proceeds were reinvested in our existing holdings.
MEXICO
As we mentioned last month, the political environment became substantially
more stable in Mexico following Francisco Labastida's overwhelming win in the
PRI Presidential primary election on 7 November. Defeat was quickly
acknowledged by his rival, Roberto Madrazo, who has promised to remain within
the PRI, so avoiding a split in the ruling party ahead of next year's
Presidential election. Mexico was also boosted by news of stronger than
expected Q399 GDP growth of 4.6%, and by indications of better consumer
demand. Impressive growth in foreign direct investment (up 10% YOY for the
nine months to September 1999) and higher oil prices have kept the peso
strong. The equity market rally was spearheaded by the banks and a narrow
group of blue chips, including Telmex, but broadened out during the month. We
made no changes to the portfolio during the month.
ARGENTINA
Argentina lagged the rest of the region in November after optimism following
the election of President De La Rua became more guarded. The new government
has not yet had its 2000 budget approved by Congress, as had been hoped, and
has had to do some tough negotiating with provincial governors over spending
cuts.
During the month, we cut back our weighting in Banco de Galicia, which had
performed well, to reflect our view that more profitable investments could be
found outside Argentina. One of our holdings, energy conglomerate Perez
Companc, announced an exchange offer which was badly received by the market.
However, we have remained invested as we believe the new structure will be
fair to minority shareholders and reinforces the Perez Companc family's
commitment to the business.
CHILE
The Chilean market rose just under 13% in sterling terms in November; while it
underperformed the Latin American regional index this masks strong
appreciation in individual stocks, as well as increased interest in the market
by foreign investors looking for evidence of economic recovery. Though GDP
growth for September was below expectations at 1.1% YOY this was the first
positive growth for twelve months; a fall in unemployment and improved export
performance also point towards better prospects for the market. It is now
clear that since the 12 December Presidential election produced a virtual dead
heat for the two major candidates, the contest will go to a second round on 16
January. After my recent visit to Chile, we will be making some changes to
our holdings, including those in local stocks, where we think a lifting of
capital controls on foreign investment in the first half of next year could
benefit the market.
ANDEAN MARKETS
The Andean markets have received little attention from investors in recent
months. Venezuela underperformed the region substantially in November,
returning -5.6% in sterling terms despite the rising oil price. Investor
concerns are mainly over the implications of the new constitution. We
maintain our zero weight in the market, which despite some big gains has been
extremely volatile and year to date is now in negative territory. Peru's
benchmark stock Telefonica del Peru outperformed the index (+6.6% in sterling)
as investors became more positive on the outlook for economic recovery; GDP
figures released showed growth of 2.2% in September. Peru's fiscal position
has worsened due to the recession and various incentive programmes but the
government has announced plans to reduce the deficit to 2% of GDP next year
from 2.5% in 1999 and to set legal limits on spending and debt levels.
Colombia outperformed in November, up 18.3% in sterling terms; we have a small
position in brewer Bavaria which performed strongly. Despite the rally, the
Colombian market is still down around 20% year to date.
We made no changes to the portfolio in these smaller markets during the month.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
30/11/99 31/10/99 30/11/99 31/10/99
83.6p 72.6p 86.4p 77.3p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/11/99 31/10/99
Ordinary Shares 64.50p 55.50p
Warrants 22.25p 19.75p
Market exposure
30/11/99 31/10/99
EQUITIES
Argentina 4.5 6.3
Brazil 32.5 32.2
Chile 10.0 9.3
Colombia 0.7 0.7
Mexico 46.2 44.9
Peru 3.7 3.9
Other 1.2 1.3
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.8 98.6
Net Current Assets 1.2 1.4
------ -------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
------ -------
Based on total assets less current liabilities of £51.8 million (£45.0
million).
GEARING
Borrowings and Gearing at 30/11/99 31/10/99
£000's £000's
NIL NIL
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £41.5 million equal to 81.2% of total
portfolio)
% of
Country £000's portfolio
Telmex Mexico 6,916 13.5
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 2,416 4.7
Grupo Televisa Mexico 2,329 4.6
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,271 4.4
Tele Centro Sul Brazil 1,980 3.9
Petrobras Brazil 1,784 3.5
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,761 3.4
Soriana Mexico 1,580 3.1
Banco Itau Brazil 1,534 3.0
Banco de Galicia Argentina 1,483 2.9
Telesp Brazil 1,477 2.9
Cemex Mexico 1,470 2.9
Brahma Brazil 1,437 2.8
Alfa Mexico 1,434 2.8
Telecom de Chile Chile 1,327 2.6
Femsa Mexico 1,296 2.5
Desc Mexico 1,202 2.4
Banamex Mexico 1,077 2.1
Kimberly-Clark Mexico 1,032 2.0
Embratel Brazil 1,026 2.0
Gerdau Brazil 995 1.9
Gissa Mexico 988 1.9
Quinenco Chile 947 1.9
Cementos Lima Peru 907 1.8
Grupo Carso Mexico 851 1.7
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 0171-545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 0171-545-0520, e-mail address:
mark.pope@db.com
Issued by Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by
Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment
Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Morgan Grenfell Latin
American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise
and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in
exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in
Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks
associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or
volatile.