Rprt for the Mnth of Oct 2000
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
10 November 2000
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2000
SUMMARY
October was another weak month for Latin American markets, as concerns over
the position of Argentina overwhelmed mainly positive earnings reports. The
volatility seen in the US markets, particularly on any stock-specific earnings
disappointments, and the continuing strength of the oil price due to conflict
in the Middle East, weighed heavily on the region. The MSCI Latin America
Free Index fell by 1.8% in sterling terms, with the biggest falls seen in
Argentina and Brazil, both down over 5% as a perception of rising risk in
Argentina caused bond spreads to widen out significantly over US treasuries.
Venezuela fell by 10.7%, driven by a big drop in bellwether CANTV as investor
concern mounted over potential competition. Despite this weakness, the Latin
American index was still a better performer than the broader Emerging Markets
region, which fell 5.6% led by Asia.
Our NAV fell by 3.25% during the month, underperforming the index. This was
mostly due to our overweight Brazil, neutral Mexico stance. Although we
benefited from being underweight Argentina, our holdings in Brazilian banks
and telcos were hard hit, as were several of our Mexican stocks.
Towards the end of the month, we took advantage of market weakness and drew
down on our loan facility to buy certain Latin American shares that we
believed to have been oversold. We also used the facility to buy back some of
our own shares at a discount so that at the end of the month we were 7.8%
geared.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian market fell 6.2% in sterling terms in October, as rising bond
yields provoked by the political crisis in Argentina weighed on investors.
The currency also weakened in response to these worries. Despite the negative
impact that an Argentine default would have on the emerging debt markets, we
believe that the actual impact on Brazil should be limited due to the
significant progress that the country has made over the past 18 months. In
recognition of Brazil's improving fundamentals, Moody's raised its credit
rating during the month from B2 to B1. Inflation was subdued in October; the
government's primary surplus continues to be higher than expected; and strong
industrial production figures confirm the ongoing recovery. The one cloud on
the horizon is the trade balance. The higher price of imported oil, rising
demand for intermediate goods caused by the economic recovery and weak export
prices for agricultural commodities have caused the cumulative trade surplus
to narrow to only $194m for the year to October, far from the bumper $5bn
surplus some predicted early in the year. Manufacturers have also diverted
products away from the export market to satisfy growing domestic demand.
However, as long as FDI flows continue to be strong this shortfall will be
financeable.
During the month, Banestado, the state bank of Parana was sold to Banco Itau
for a price equivalent to 3.6 x book value. Itau defended the price paid by
saying that tax credits and substantial merger benefits would justify the
acquisition. All eyes are now on the forthcoming auction of Banespa, which
the leading Brazilian banks are expected to contest fiercely with their
Spanish rivals. October was also a month of earnings releases, with
outstanding third quarter results coming from brewer Ambev (formerly Brahma),
supermarket chain CBD, Banco Itau and Tele Norte Leste. We will be visiting
Brazil this month in order to identify stocks which will benefit from the next
stage of consumer recovery.
Banks Unibanco and Bradesco fell over 20% in USD during the month on concerns
that they might overpay for Banespa (whose stock in contrast rose 16%). We
were also hurt by falls in Gerdau and several of our telecoms holdings,
although Ambev was a relative outperformer.
MEXICO
The Mexican market held up well in October, rising 4% in sterling terms,
boosted by good quarterly earnings releases from most major companies. Growth
continues to be strong, with the August GDP figure showing a 7.7% rise. This
rate of growth has produced a widening trade deficit, despite higher oil
prices; in response, the Central Bank again tightened monetary policy during
the month. Interest rates are now at 17% against a forecast inflation rate of
about 9%, and we expect monetary policy to remain tight through the year end.
Results from companies focused on the domestic economy have been positive
overall, with good reports from Telmex, the banks, and brewers Femsa and
Modelo, although competitive pressures in retailing led to disappointment at
Soriana and Comerci. The weakest results were in the conglomerates sector,
hit by high energy prices, a strong peso and little pricing power. We have
also seen the first signs of a real slowdown in the US auto market which is
only likely to continue next year. This has important implications for
Mexican autoparts suppliers in particular, and in a broader context for the
Mexican economy as a whole. We also saw poor results for homebuilder Geo,
reflecting a slowdown in activity before the change in administration of the
principal mortgage agency, which caused the shares to plunge. However, our
outlook for improving cash flow and earnings growth for next year remains
intact and we maintain our holding in the company.
We added a new position in retailer Wal-Mart de Mexico towards the end of the
month, increasing our exposure to the consumer recovery.
ARGENTINA
As already mentioned, concerns over Argentina had a significant and negative
impact on the rest of the region in October. The recent placement of
Argentina's credit rating on review for a possible downgrade by S&P is a
vindication of our long-held bearish view on the market. At the heart of the
problem is the weakness of the ruling coalition led by Fernando de la Rua at a
time when it needs to pass key budget measures in order to maintain investors'
confidence in the country's finances. Growth has disappointed all year,
meaning that the government's room for manoeuvre is limited. Next year's
financing requirement is $20bn, a considerable proportion of which needs to be
rolled over with foreign investors. We believe that a further sharp
deterioration in sentiment will result in emergency cabinet changes and a
shift in policy towards fiscal stimulus. We do however believe that because
of the importance of Argentina as a creditor, the IMF will provide support
through any policy change. We also expect that the effect on neighbouring
Brazil would be temporary.
In October, Brazilian long steel manufacturer Belgo Mineira, cash-rich from
the sale of its iron ore business to CVRD, announced the acquisition of a
stake in Argentine long steel maker Acindar, which it will recapitalize and
restructure.
CHILE
The Chilean market was also weak in October, though to a lesser degree than
its Southern Cone neighbours (-2.4% in sterling terms). Data on the long-
awaited recovery of internal demand continues to be disappointing; August GDP
figures rose by 5.9% YOY, slower than July's 8.1% rise, industrial production
declined in September and unemployment rose to 10.7%. Earnings reports from
the major retailers also failed to show any real return of consumer
confidence.
As expected, inflation rose in September due to the effect of higher oil
prices. We made no changes to our portfolio during the month.
ANDEAN MARKETS
The smaller markets were generally weak during October, with the exception of
Colombia which outperformed due to low liquidity and signs of economic
recovery spurred by the high oil price and the now-competitive exchange rate.
Third quarter GDP growth in Colombia was 3.7% and both exports and
manufacturing have been robust. In contrast Peru is actually moving into a
slowdown in growth due to stalled investment and low levels of domestic and
international confidence, stemming from considerable political uncertainty.
There have recently been signs of progress towards new elections in April, but
the return of former security adviser Montesinos to the country, an army
uprising in the south and a lack of alternatives to Fujimori mean that the
situation is likely to continue to be volatile for some months. S&P
downgraded its credit ratings for Peru's foreign currency debt from BB to BB-
due to the uncertain political and economic recovery. We have already
mentioned the steep fall in Venezuela's leading telecoms operator, CANTV,
during the month. This was prompted by changes in the competitive environment
and concerns over a potential realignment of shareholder interests in the
controlling consortium. Otherwise Venezuelan economic activity seems to have
picked up helped by the government's spending of the oil windfall and
significant new oil and telecoms investment from the private sector.
Inflation is relatively subdued, thanks to the strength of the bolivar. We
made no changes to any of our Andean holdings during the month.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/10/00 30/09/00 31/10/00 30/09/00
92.2p 95.3p 93.7p 96.2p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/10/00 30/09/00
Ordinary Shares 76.50p 78.50p
Warrants 18.25p 20.25p
Market exposure
31/10/00 30/09/00
EQUITIES
Argentina 1.3 1.4
Brazil 49.0 47.5
Chile 11.7 11.1
Colombia 0.4 0.4
Mexico 41.8 36.3
Peru 0.4 0.6
Venezuela 1.4 1.5
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 106.0 98.8
Net Current Assets (6.0) 1.2
------ ------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
------ ------
Based on total assets less current liabilities of £46.8 million (£50.7
million).
GEARING
Borrowings and Gearing at 31/10/00 30/09/00
£000's £000's
3,365 NIL
==== ====
7.8% NIL
==== ====
Based on net asset value of £43.4 million.
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £44.2 million equal to 89.2% of total
portfolio)
% of
Country £000's portfolio
Telmex Mexico 7,577 15.3
Petrobras Brazil 4,011 8.1
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 3,219 6.5
Unibanco Brazil 2,278 4.6
Ambev Brazil 2,143 4.3
Banco Ita£ Brazil 2,133 4.3
Femsa Mexico 2,071 4.2
Telecom de Chile Chile 1,796 3.6
Gerdau Brazil 1,789 3.6
Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,649 3.3
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,569 3.2
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,545 3.1
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,539 3.1
Banamex Mexico 1,364 2.8
Telenordeste Celular Brazil 1,112 2.2
Enersis Chile 1,012 2.0
Cemex Mexico 994 2.0
Soriana Mexico 909 1.8
D & S Chile 849 1.7
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 839 1.7
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 828 1.7
Telesp Celular Brazil 817 1.7
Embratel Brazil 814 1.6
Sider Nacional Brazil 698 1.4
Eletrobras Brazil 692 1.4
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address:
mark.pope@db.com. Further details of the Deutsche Latin American Companies
Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on
the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management
Regulatory Organisation and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a
guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not
get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also
affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets
which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.