Interim Results Replaces Interim Results Releas...
ABERFORTH GEARED CAPITAL & INCOME TRUST plc
INTERIM RESULTS
For the six months to 30 June 2004
Revision in 'FEATURES' to the Total Return of HGSC Index (Excluding Investment Companies) from +41.8% to +10.6%.
FEATURES
Total Assets Total Return +12.7%
Net Asset Value of Notional Unit Total Return +20.2%
HGSC Index (Excluding Investment Companies) Total Return +10.6% [revised]
First Interim Dividend 3.15p
First Interim Dividend +2.4%
Notional Unit NAV comprises 70% of the Income Share NAV and
30% of the Capital Share NAV.
Aberforth Geared Capital & Income Trust plc invests only in
small UK quoted companies, does not invest in any unquoted
securities, AiM listed securities or securities issued by
investment trusts or investment companies.
CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT TO SHAREHOLDERS
I am pleased to be able to report a period of strong returns for the assets of
Aberforth Geared Capital & Income Trust plc (AGCiT). The total return on total
assets of 12.7% reflects strength in the Company's chosen asset class, small UK
quoted companies. As measured by the Hoare Govett Smaller Companies Index
(Excluding Investment Companies), the return from this asset class was 10.6%.
Larger companies, as represented by the FTSE All-Share Index, registered a total
return of 2.8%.
The effect of the gearing employed by the Company is to translate the 12.7% total
return on total assets into a 20.2% return on Shareholders' funds. After allowing
for a 100p capital entitlement of the Income Shares, the net asset value of a
Capital Share has risen by 41.8% from 164.32p on 31 December 2003 to 232.98p at 30
June 2004.
A first interim dividend for 2004 of 3.15p per Income Share has been declared.
This dividend represents a 2.4% increase over the 3.075p paid in respect of the
comparative period in 2003. The dividend will be paid on 26 August 2004 to Income
Shareholders on the register on 30 July 2004.
In order to allow more efficient use to be made of the Company's original long-
term debt facilities, which amounted to £34.3m, additional overdraft facilities
totalling £4m have been negotiated. The new facilities are in the form of
overdrafts and do not incur non-utilisation charges. Consequently, it is
anticipated that AGCiT will now be in a position to utilise its £34.3m of long-
term debt facilities on a fuller and more consistent basis than had hitherto
proved possible.
INVESTMENT BACKGROUND
The last six months have seen confirmation of a worldwide economic recovery.
Fuelled by historically low interest rates, the US economy has driven the
expansion: consensus expectations for GDP growth in 2004 are now one fifth higher
than they were six months ago. Crucially, though, the role of the US in the
global upturn has been complemented by the nations of East Asia, and by China in
particular.
Happily, the emerging economies of the region have been joined by Japan, for so
long a laggard in terms of economic growth: Japanese GDP grew by 6% at an
annualised rate in the first quarter of 2004 and has now increased for eight
consecutive quarters. Importantly, this expansion is not now due only to export
growth: one third of the first quarter's progress was generated by private
consumption.
Europe's economic performance, on the other hand, remains sluggish. Although
recent survey data do suggest an improvement in prospects, much of this is
attributable to the growth in demand from the rest of the world: Europe has yet to
generate a self-sustaining recovery.
The UK stands in contrast to its continental peers. Economic growth in 2004 is
robust, supported by a combination of higher government spending, a recovery in
investment and the reliable household sector. The resilience of the consumer has
been bolstered by falling unemployment and average earnings growth of almost 5%.
Less securely, and in a circular fashion, the continuing strength of the housing
market has also played a role.
In aggregate, therefore, the data pertaining to the real growth of the world's
economies have, on balance, been positive over AGCiT's first half. This has been
an environment conducive to a continuation of profits growth. In the UK,
corporate profits as a percentage of GDP have returned to levels of mid 2000.
More remarkably, albeit assisted by dollar weakness, US corporate profits as a
percentage of GDP have surged to levels not seen since the late 1990s.
Given this, and the recent exceptional level of earnings upgrades from Wall Street
analysts, it is perhaps surprising that stockmarkets have not performed rather
better over ACCiT's first half: in local currency and capital only terms, the S&P
500 Index is up by 2.6% and the FTSE All-Share Index by just 1.0%. Clearly, the
market discounted much of the recovery, but it has also been preoccupied by other
factors.
The geopolitical climate remains uncertain: events in Iraq and Saudi Arabia
increase the perceived risks of holding equities. More tangibly, Middle Eastern
turmoil has combined with Chinese and American demand to drive up the price of
oil. China's influence can also be observed in the prices of other commodities,
such as steel. Commodity prices have a direct, though potentially delayed, effect
on corporate profitability. With profit share close to peak levels, it may now
prove tougher for profits to increase more quickly than GDP.
Compounding these concerns are indications - in commodity prices, producer prices
and average earnings - that the debate between inflation and deflation may be
swinging towards the former camp. While such an outcome ought to prove the more
benign for equities, the transition would not be painless. Such pain is most
obvious in higher interest rates. In contrast to the UK, where the MPC has raised
rates four times in eight months, the US has seen just one increase on the last
day of June. However, fears that the Fed may be underestimating the nascent
inflation risk have been taken into account by the bond market, which, from mid
March, has endured its sharpest fall since 1994.
On both sides of the Atlantic, therefore, investors are confronting tighter
monetary conditions, something they have not had to do for four years. The
inevitable pressure on the valuation of equities - and indeed other asset classes
- risks being exacerbated by the unwinding of leveraged investment strategies
whose viability has relied on cheap money.
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE
In the first two months of 2004, small UK quoted companies, AGCiT's investment
universe, sustained the momentum of the previous year, though their performance
from the end of February was more subdued, possibly as the impact of higher
interest rates was felt. Nevertheless, the first half as a whole saw the HGSC
(XIC) index achieve good returns both in absolute terms and relative to large
companies. These returns were exceeded by AGCiT.
AGCiT's out-performance was broadly based, with the portfolio adding value against
the HGSC (XIC) index in 19 of the 31 sectors that make up the index. In common
with previous phases of good performance, the identification of attractively
valued businesses (i.e. stock selection) proved more important than the
exploitation of broad industrial themes (i.e. sector selection). However, one
sector worthy of note is Oil & Gas, to which AGCiT has relatively little exposure
owing to a lack of attractive companies with appropriate dividend yields. In the
six months, Oil & Gas accounted for over one quarter of the HGSC (XIC) index's
capital return. The rising oil price was influential, but more important was the
exceptional performance of the exploration companies, as certain discovery
successes whetted investors' appetite for high impact drilling programmes.
With greater confidence in economic growth, corporate activity continued the
upturn that began in the second half of 2003. AGCiT has been a disproportionate
beneficiary: nine of its portfolio companies were at the receiving end of
corporate activity in the first six months of the year. Performance was also
enhanced by value creation initiatives from six other investments: such
initiatives include share buy backs and disposals of non-core businesses. Not
unexpectedly, equity issuance has also picked up: in its first half, AGCiT
subscribed to three fund raisings, one of which was an initial public offering.
An analysis of the portfolio as at 30 June 2004 suggests that the environment for
dividend growth remains healthy. There were 95 companies in the portfolio at the
end of June. These companies paid 86 dividends that AGCiT was entitled to earn in
the first half. Of the 86, two were cuts, 25 were unchanged on the corresponding
payments in the previous year and 59 were increases. The median dividend increase
of the 86 companies was 6.9% year on year. Although it should be noted that
AGCiT's actual receipts vary from this figure since the portfolio is actively
managed, this rate of increase is encouraging: it is in excess of the rate of
inflation and gives some fundamental justification to recent share price
movements.
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
The interplay of developments in the real economy and those in financial markets
is, in the short run at least, unpredictable. It should not therefore come as a
surprise that the present investment outlook is radically different from that
which prevailed a year ago. As highlighted in AGCiT's previous interim report,
markets then were fretting about deflation, to which the monetary authorities had
reacted with lower interest rates and vague references to "unconventional
measures". Twelve months on, it seems that these tactics have succeeded.
Economic recovery appears well entrenched and, in combination with earlier cost
cutting, has generated a strong recovery in corporate profits. Moreover, the
deflationary threat seems to have receded, to the extent that investors' greater
fear is now that monetary policy may have remained too loose for too long and that
inflationary pressures are mounting.
However, with public and private sector debt levels in developed economies
remaining high, it would appear premature to write off the risk of deflation.
Fine judgment on the part of central banks is required to ensure that monetary
tightening - or the financial markets' anticipation of it - does not have too
dramatic an effect on demand. At the very least, with interest rates rising, it
would seem reasonable to expect a period of more modest economic and profits
growth.
In such an environment, the stockmarket might struggle to produce real returns
much above the historic average of 5-7% per annum. However, within this long run
average, shorter periods of exaggerated price movements - both up and down - are
probable, especially in view of the activities of leveraged market participants
such as hedge funds. Over the last year or so, the direction has been upwards and
small companies have led the way: as the table below shows, their out-performance
has taken them close to the valuation of the FTSE All-Share index, whose historic
PE and yield at the end of June were 16.1x and 3.2%.
30 June 2004 30 June 2003
Characteristics AGCiT HGSC (XIC) AGCiT HGSC (XIC)
Number of Companies 95 707 82 827
Weighted Average Market
Capitalisation £331m £414m £318m £334m
Price Earnings Ratio 13.1x 16.0x 11.2x 13.4x
(Historic)
Net Dividend Yield 3.7% 2.6% 4.2% 3.0%
(Historic)
Dividend Cover (Historic) 2.0x 2.4x 2.1x 2.5x
The table also shows that your Managers are not slaves to an index. A universe of
707 companies abounds in individual opportunities for the consistent application
of value investment disciplines. AGCiT's portfolio is thus well diversified, in
both capital and income terms, and boasts a lower valuation than the broader
equity market, as measured by both the HGSC (XIC) index and the FTSE All-Share
index. In a still uncertain world, this valuation discount should, other things
being equal, be of advantage to AGCiT.
Alastair C Dempster
Chairman
21 July 2004
The Statement of Total Return, summary Balance Sheet and
summary Cash Flow Statement are set out below: -
STATEMENT OF TOTAL RETURN
(Incorporating the Revenue Account [1])
(unaudited)
6 months to 6 months to
30 June 2004 30 June 2003
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Realised gains/
(losses) on sales - 5,745 5,745 - (1,188) (1,188)
Unrealised gains - 2,432 2,432 - 11,827 11,827
------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Net Gains on
investments - 8,177 8,177 - 10,639 10,639
Dividend income 1,862 - 1,862 1,689 - 1,689
Interest income 21 - 21 50 - 50
Other income 9 - 9 - - -
Investment
management fee (104) (242) (346) (74) (173) (247)
Other expenses (89) - (89) (80) - (80)
------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Net return before
finance costs and
taxation 1,699 7,935 9,634 1,585 10,466 12,051
Interest payable
and similar
charges (311) (726) (1,037) (312) (728) (1,040)
------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Return attributable
to non-equity
shareholders 1,388 7,209 8,597 1,273 9,738 11,011
Dividends and
other
appropriations
in respect of
non-equity shares (772) (33) (805) (753) (34) (787)
------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Transfer to
reserves 616 7,176 7,792 520 9,704 10,224
------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Returns per non-
equity interest[2]:
Income Share 5.67p - 5.67p 5.20p - 5.20p
Capital Share - 68.66p 68.66p - 92.74p 92.74p
Dividends per
Income Share 3.150p - 3.150p 3.075p - 3.075p
NOTES
[1.] The revenue column of this statement is the profit and
loss account of the Company. All revenue and capital items in
the above statement derive from continuing operations. No
operations were acquired or discontinued in the period.
[2.] The calculations of revenue return per Income Share are
based on net revenue of £1,388,000 (30 June 2003 - £1,273,000)
million and on 24.5 million Income Shares. The calculations of
capital return per Capital Share are based on net capital gains of
£7,209,000 (30 June 2003 - £9,738,000) and on 10.5 million Capital Shares.
SUMMARY BALANCE SHEET
(unaudited)
30 31 30
June December June
2004 2003 2003
£'000 £'000 £'000
Securities officially listed on
the London Stock Exchange 84,996 74,199 67,641
------- ------- -------
Debtors 606 338 1,137
Cash at bank - 1 -
Overdraft (211) - -
Other creditors (1,235) (1,550) (1,360)
------- ------- -------
Net current liabilities (840) (1,211) (223)
------- ------- -------
Total assets less current
liabilities 84,156 72,988 67,418
Creditors (amounts falling due
after more than one year) (34,230) (30,887) (31,256)
------- ------- -------
Total assets less liabilities 49,926 42,101 36,162
------- ------- -------
Capital and reserves: non-equity
interests
Called up share capital 350 350 350
Reserves:
Capital redemption reserve 50 50 50
Special reserve 33,929 33,929 33,929
Capital reserve - realised 1,040 (3,737) (4,325)
Capital reserve - unrealised 13,594 11,162 5,378
Revenue reserve 963 347 780
------- ------- -------
49,926 42,101 36,162
------- ------- -------
Net Asset Values:
per Income Share 65.06p 62.37p 61.43p
per Capital Share 317.81p 255.42p 201.06p
NOTE
During the period the Company had 24.5m Income Shares and 10.5m Capital Shares in issue.
SUMMARY CASH FLOW STATEMENT
(unaudited)
6 months to 6 months to
30 June 2004 30 June 2003
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Net cash inflow from
operating activities 1,274 1,226
Returns on investments and
servicing of finance
Interest and similar charges
paid (1,027) (1,037)
Non-equity dividends paid (1,256) (1,225)
-------- --------
Net cash outflow from
returns on investments
and servicing of finance (2,283) (2,262)
Capital expenditure and
financial investment
Payments to acquire
investments (23,051) (12,415)
Receipts from sales of
investments 20,509 15,072
-------- --------
Net cash (outflow)/inflow
from capital expenditure
and financial investment (2,542) 2,657
-------- --------
Net cash (outflow)/inflow
before financing (3,551) 1,621
-------- --------
Financing
Loans drawn down/(repaid) 3,339 (1,622)
-------- --------
Net cash inflow/(outflow)
from financing 3,339 (1,622)
-------- --------
Change in cash during the
period (212) (1)
-------- --------
NOTES
The same accounting policies used for the period to 31
December 2003 have been applied. The financial statements
have been prepared in accordance with applicable accounting
standards and with the Statement of Recommended Practice
"Financial Statements of Investment Trust Companies" (SORP).
The foregoing do not comprise statutory accounts (as defined
in section 240(5) of the Companies Act 1985) of the Company.
The statutory accounts for the period to 31 December 2003,
which contained an unqualified Report of the Auditors, have
been lodged with the Registrar of Companies and did not
contain a statement required under section 237(2) or (3) of
the Companies Act 1985.
The Interim Report is expected to be posted to shareholders on
23 July 2004. Members of the public may obtain copies from
Aberforth Partners, 14 Melville Street, Edinburgh EH3 7NS or
from its website at www.aberforth.co.uk.
CONTACT: David Ross, Aberforth Partners 0131 220 0733
Aberforth Partners, Secretaries - 22 July 2004
ANNOUNCEMENT ENDS