Final Results
Edinburgh Dragon Trust plc
01 November 2007
1 November 2007
EDINBURGH DRAGON TRUST plc
PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE YEAR TO 31 AUGUST 2007
Edinburgh Dragon Trust's objective is long-term capital growth through
investment in the Far East (excluding Japan and Australasia). The Company's
benchmark is the MSCI All Country Asia (ex Japan) Index.
• The Company's net asset value rose 27.7% on a total return basis
compared to a rise of 40.1% in the MSCI All Country Asia (ex Japan) Index.
• Asian stock markets enjoyed major growth conditions, with many
exchanges climbing to fresh highs. Strong underlying growth, stable interest
rates and global money flows all contributed.
• Asian stock markets are at, or close to their all-time highs today.
This has bred a certain over-confidence and it remains to be seen how the
region would respond to any reversal in sentiment.
• The Company has paid for its caution in terms of underperformance,
but believes the very high valuations of market leading stocks have not
reflected the possible risks.
For further information please contact:-
Hugh Young, Managing Director, Aberdeen Asset Management Asia 0065 6395 2700
Ian Massie, Head of Investment Trust Investor Relations, 0131 313 1000
Aberdeen Asset Management
Edinburgh Dragon Trust plc
Chairman's Statement 31 August 2007
During the year ended 31 August 2007, your Company's net asset value rose 27.7%
on a total return basis, compared to a 40.1% rise in the benchmark MSCI All
Country Asia (ex Japan) Index. This underperformance against the benchmark was
largely attributable to stock selection in South Korea and our modest exposure
to China. The share price rose 22.5%, reflecting a widening of the discount to
11.1%.
Overview
Once again Asian stock markets enjoyed surging increases, with many exchanges
climbing to fresh highs. Strong underlying growth, stable interest rates and
global money flows all contributed, and companies continued to report good, if
moderating, growth in earnings.
Economic activity across the region remained brisk. Growth rates were revised
upwards, in part as the growing economic influence of China and India continued
to spur intra-regional trade over the year, even though demand in the key US
export market eased. Private spending, which was lacking in the immediate years
following the Asian financial crisis, appeared more sustainable.
Progress in stock markets was more or less uninterrupted, and had the effect of
ensuring almost every market performed well, although not all equally. Much of
the attention was given over to China, where there was a surge in share buying,
which appeared increasingly speculative over time. Beijing listed a handful of
state-owned mega-stocks in Hong Kong including Ping An, an insurer, and ICBC, a
bank. The interest this generated also influenced other 'Chinese stocks',
including H shares and the so-called 'red chip' conglomerates. Traditional Hong
Kong-listed shares were more muted.
Dragon continued to prefer more mature stocks such as China Mobile, while
portfolio stalwarts such as Swire, despite reporting good earnings growth, were
overshadowed. Away from Hong Kong and China, a similar story obtained:
mainstream investors preferred to chase certain themes, such as cyclicals in
Korea or restructuring in Malaysia, and Dragon's emphasis on companies with
visible growth and strong balance sheets was therefore not necessarily shown to
best effect.
Nowhere has exemplified the rise of the consumer more than India, where a credit
boom has been unleashed, against a background historically of very low levels of
borrowing. But even here, it was larger cap industrial stocks that performed
best, whereas our Indian exposure was more skewed to financials and technology
stocks. This thematic bias was similarly best seen in Korea, where a number of
heavy industry cyclicals that are benefiting from Chinese demand were bid up
rapidly. For reasons of quality as well as doubts over the business model (and,
latterly, the prices being paid), we avoided them.
Overall, it is acknowledged that the caution of your Company has led to
underperformance. Our Manager believes that the 'racier' valuations of market
leaders have perhaps not reflected the possible risks, and that, as often in
bullish markets, there may have been a tendency to extrapolate high growth
projections too far forward. However the corrections we have seen so far, first
in May, then lately in August following problems in global credit markets, were
too short-lived to see any proper switch into more defensive stocks.
Our Manager has reviewed the portfolio carefully, and the 'storyline' remains
the same, companies' earnings growth has kept coming through, dividend yields
have stayed attractive and company managers are properly sticking to core
businesses. Meanwhile, there has been little in markets to commend in terms of
new buys, although many potential investment ideas were considered. In fact, the
most beneficial strategy in terms of portfolio activity was to add to positions
in back-markers and trim some of our more favoured counters as they became
pricier.
Revenue account
The revenue return per share was 1.84p, compared to 1.41p in the previous year.
The Board recommends the payment of a final dividend of 1.1p per ordinary share
which, if approved by shareholders at the Annual General Meeting, will be paid
on 14 December 2007.
Annual General Meeting
In accordance with the articles of association, Mr Lowrie will retire from the
Board and, being eligible, will offer himself for re-election at the annual
general meeting. In accordance with the corporate governance procedures
endorsed by the Board, all directors who have attained more than nine years'
service or are aged over 70 years will retire from the Board and submit
themselves for re-election on an annual basis. Messrs Cassidy, Frame, Gairns,
Tyrie and Watt will retire and be proposed for re-election at the annual general
meeting. Following an appraisal of each director, including the Chairman, the
Board is satisfied that each director's performance continues to be effective,
that the Board has the requisite range of expertise and experience and that it
is compliant with the AIC guidelines on independence. The Board recommends that
shareholders vote in favour of the re-election of directors at the annual
general meeting.
During the year discounts within the sector have widened and Dragon's discount
was no exception, rising from 7.3% to 11.1% at the end of the financial year.
The Board monitors closely the discount level of the Company's shares and has in
place a buyback mechanism whereby the Manager is authorised to buy back shares
within certain limits. This resulted in 1.7 million shares being bought back at
discounts ranging from 10.2% to 14.5%. A resolution to renew the authority to
buyback shares for cancellation will be proposed at the annual general meeting.
Outlook
Having survived some turbulence already this year, at the time of writing Asian
stock markets are at, or close to their all-time highs. This has bred a certain
over-confidence and it remains to be seen how the region would respond to
another reversal in sentiment.
The main threat clearly comes from the US, where a weaker housing market is now
affecting broad economic data. There is hope that easier money will help avert a
sharp US slowdown, although the earlier cuts in interest rates would appear
partly responsible for soaring asset prices globally. Interest rate reductions
now may thus not be a complete solution - unless the US economy is slowing
faster than expected, a situation which would be unwelcome for company earnings
and for the global economy as a whole. As things stand, inflationary price
pressures remain.
China's response would be critical if reduction in US demand were to be
accompanied by a lower US dollar. It already faces major policy choices, not
least how to confront the stock market overheating. Allowing the renminbi to
float upwards would help stimulate imports. Although the conventional view is
that China can, at least for a time, spend its way out of any trouble, leaving
the region in its slipstream.
In conclusion, whilst from our perspective the balance sheets of Dragon
portfolio companies are sound, valuations remain fair, and earnings growth
appears robust, this investment style, albeit consistent, has resulted in your
company not benefiting from the best of the bull markets to the same extent as
some of its peers. Your Board, in recognising this relative underperformance,
has recently taken independent soundings of a broad range of shareholders and is
in active dialogue with the Manager on ways better to meet shareholder
expectations going forward.
Tony Cassidy
Chairman
INCOME STATEMENT (audited)
Year ended 31 August 2007 Year ended 31 August 2006
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Realised gains on investments - 14,703 14,703 - 34,810 34,810
Unrealised gains on investments - 62,228 62,228 - 3,142 3,142
Currency gains - 2,240 2,240 - 2,168 2,168
Income 12,585 - 12,585 11,088 - 11,088
Investment management fee (3,614) - (3,614) (2,981) - (2,981)
Administration expenses (1,065) - (1,065) (915) - (915)
_______ _______ _______ _______ _______ ______
NET RETURN BEFORE FINANCE COSTS AND TAXATION 7,906 79,171 87,077 7,192 40,120 47,312
Interest payable and similar charges (2,936) - (2,936) (3,258) - (3,258)
_______ _______ _______ _______ _______ ______
RETURN ON ORDINARY ACTIVITIES BEFORE TAXATION 4,970 79,171 84,141 3,934 40,120 44,054
Taxation on ordinary activities (604) - (604) (595) - (595)
_______ _______ _______ _______ _______ ______
RETURN ON ORDINARY ACTIVITIES AFTER TAXATION 4,366 79,171 83,537 3,339 40,120 43,459
_______ _______ _______ _______ _______ ______
RETURN PER SHARE (PENCE): 1.84 33.37 35.21 1.41 16.91 18.32
_______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______
The total column of this statement represents the profit and loss account of the
Company.
No Statement of Total Recognised Gains and Losses has been prepared as all gains
and losses have been reflected in the Income Statement.
All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from continuing
operations.
No operations were acquired or discontinued in the year.
The accompanying notes are an integral part of the financial statements.
BALANCE SHEET (audited)
as at 31 August
2007 2006
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
Investments at fair value through profit or loss 416,089 331,252
CURRENT ASSETS
Debtors and prepayments 1,056 1,531
Cash and short term deposits 8,990 12,194
_______ ________
10,046 13,725
CURRENT LIABILITIES
CREDITORS: AMOUNTS FALLING DUE WITHIN ONE YEAR (1,983) (1,428)
_______ ________
NET CURRENT ASSETS 8,063 12,297
_______ _______
TOTAL ASSETS LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES 424,152 343,549
CREDITORS: AMOUNTS FALLING AFTER MORE THAN ONE YEAR (39,631) (41,996)
_______ _______
NET ASSETS 384,521 301,553
_______ _______
CAPITAL AND RESERVES
Called-up share capital 47,415 47,455
Capital reserve - unrealised 140,674 76,050
Capital reserve - realised 93,469 79,200
Special reserve 85,520 85,520
Capital redemption reserve 8,792 8,752
Share premium account 4,285 4,285
Revenue reserve 4,366 291
_______ _______
EQUITY SHAREHOLDERS' FUNDS 384,521 301,553
_______ _______
ADJUSTED NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE (PENCE) 162.18 127.06
_______ _______
RECONCILIATION OF MOVEMENTS IN SHAREHOLDERS' FUNDS (audited)
For the year ended 31
August 2007
Capital Capital Capital Share
Share reserve reserve Special redemption premium Warrant Revenue
capital unrealised realised reserve reserve account reserve reserve Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Balance at 31 August 2006 47,455 76,050 79,200 85,520 8,752 4,285 - 291 301,553
Return on ordinary - 64,624 14,547 - - - - 4,366 83,537
activities after taxation
Dividends paid - - - - - - - (291) (291)
Purchase of Ordinary (40) - (278) - 40 - - - (278)
shares for cancellation
_____ ________ ______ ______ ________ ______ ______ ______ ______
Balance at 31 August 2007 47,415 140,674 93,469 85,520 8,792 4,285 - 4,366 384,521
_____ ________ ______ ______ ________ ______ ______ ______ ______
For the year ended 31 Capital Capital Capital Share
August 2006
Share reserve reserve Special redemption premium Warrant Revenue
capital unrealised realised reserve reserve account reserve reserve Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Balance at 31 August 2005 47,455 70,485 43,598 85,520 8,752 4,285 1,047 (3,048) 258,094
(restated)
Transfer of Warrant - - 1,047 - - - (1,047) - -
reserve
Return on ordinary - 5,565 34,555 - - - - 3,339 43,459
activities after taxation
_____ ________ ______ ______ ________ ______ ______ ______ ______
Balance at 31 August 2006 47,455 76,050 79,200 85,520 8,752 4,285 - 291 301,553
_____ ________ ______ ______ ________ ______ ______ ______ ______
CASHFLOW STATEMENT
Year ended Year ended
31 August 2007 31 August 2006
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
NET CASH INFLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES 8,077 7,153
SERVICING OF FINANCE
Interest paid (2,968) (3,251)
TAXATION
Overseas tax paid (685) (603)
FINANCIAL INVESTMENT
Purchases of investments (44,727) (82,231)
Sales of investments 37,824 71,611
_______ ______
NET CASH OUTFLOW FROM FINANCIAL INVESTMENT (6,903) (10,620)
EQUITY DIVIDENDS PAID (291) -
_______ _______
NET CASH OUTFLOW BEFORE FINANCING (2,770) (7,321)
FINANCING
Buy back of Ordinary shares (including expenses) (278) -
_______ _______
DECREASE IN CASH (3,048) (7,321)
_______ _______
RECONCILIATION OF NET CASH FLOW TO MOVEMENTS IN NET DEBT
Net debt at 1 September (29,802) (24,618)
Net debt at 31 August (30,641) (29,802)
_______ _______
Movement in net debt in the year (839) (5,184)
Amortised Loan Note expenses (31) (31)
Foreign exchange differences 2,240 2,168
_______ _______
Change in net debt resulting from cash flows (3,048) (7,321)
_______ _______
NOTES:
1. Accounting policies
(a) Basis of preparation and going concern
The financial statements have been prepared under the
historical cost convention as modified to include the revaluation of
investments and in accordance with applicable UK Accounting Standards
and with the Statement of Recommended Practice 'Financial Statements
of Investment Trust Companies' (issued January 2003 and revised in
December 2005). They have also been prepared on the assumption that
approval as an investment trust will continue to be granted. The
financial statements have been prepared on a going concern basis.
The financial statements, and the net asset value per share
figures, have been prepared in accordance with UK Generally Accepted
Accounting Practice ('UK GAAP').
(b) Investments
Listed investments have been designated upon initial
recognition at fair value through profit and loss. Investments are
recognised and de-recognised on the trade date where a purchase or
sale is under a contract whose terms require delivery within the
timeframe established by the market concerned and are initially
measured at fair value. Transaction costs on purchases and sales are
taken through the Income Statement as part of the cost
or sales consideration and are dealt within the capital column.
Subsequent to initial recognition, investments are valued at fair
value. Gains and losses arising from changes in fair value are
included in net profit or loss for the period as a capital item in
the Income Statement and are ultimately recognised
in the capital reserve - unrealised.
(c) Income
Dividends (other than special dividends), net of taxes deducted
at source, are included in revenue by reference to the date on which
the investment is quoted ex-dividend. Special dividends are reviewed
on a case-by-case basis and may be credited to capital, if
circumstances dictate. Dividends receivable on equity shares where
no ex-dividend date is quoted are brought into account when the
company's right to receive payment is established.
Where the Company has elected to receive its dividends in the form of
additional shares rather than cash, the amount of the cash dividend is
recognised as income. Any excess in the value of the shares received
over the amount of cash dividend is recognised in capital reserves.
Interest receivable on bank balances is dealt with on an accruals
basis.
(d) Expenses
All expenses are accounted for on an accruals basis. Loan interest is
accountable on an effective interest rate basis. Both are chargeable
to revenue.
Transaction costs incurred on the purchase and disposal of investments
are recognised as a capital item in the Income Statement.
(e) Loan Notes
Loan Notes are translated at the rates of exchange ruling on
the Balance Sheet date and include unamortised issue expenses.
Issue expenses are amortised evenly over the life of the Loan Notes.
(f) Taxation
The charge for taxation is based on the revenue return for the year.
Deferred tax
Deferred taxation is recognised in respect of all timing differences
that have originated but not reversed at the balance sheet date where
transactions or events that result in an obligation to pay more or a
right to pay less tax in future have occurred at the balance sheet
date measured on an undiscounted basis and based on enacted tax rates.
This is subject to deferred tax assets only being recognised if it is
considered more likely than not that there will be
suitable profits from which the future reversal of the underlying
timing differences can be deducted. Timing differences are
differences arising between the Company's taxable profits and its
results as stated in the accounts which are capable of reversal in
one or more subsequent periods. Due to the Company's status as an
investment trust, and the intention to continue to meet the
conditions required to obtain approval for the foreseeable future,
the Company has not provided deferred tax on any capital gains and
losses arising on the revaluation or disposal of investments.
(g) Capital reserves
Realised
Gains or losses on investments realised in the period that have
been recognised in the Income Statement are transferred to the
realised capital reserve. In addition, any prior unrealised gains
or losses on such investments are transferred from the unrealised
capital reserve to realised capital reserve on disposal of the
investment.
Unrealised
Increases and decreases in the fair value of investments are
recognised in the Income Statement and are then transferred to the
unrealised capital reserve.
(h) Foreign currency
Transactions involving foreign currencies are translated at the
rate ruling on the date of the transaction other than investment
income which is translated at the rate ruling on the date of receipt.
Assets and liabilities in foreign currencies are translated at the
rates of exchange ruling on the Balance Sheet date.
(i) Dividends payable
Final dividends are dealt with in the period in which they are paid.
2. The proposed final dividend of 1.1p per ordinary share in respect of
the year ended 31 August 2007 will be paid on 14 December 2007 to
shareholders on the register at the close of business on 16 November 2007.
The ex-dividend date is 14 November 2007.
3. The income statement, balance sheet, reconciliation of movements in
shareholder funds and cashflow statement set out above do not represent full
statutory accounts in accordance with Section 240 of the Companies Act 1985.
The financial information for the year ended 31 August 2006 has been
extracted from the Annual Report and Accounts of the company which have
been filed with the Registrar of Companies. The auditors' report on those
accounts was unqualified. The statutory accounts for 2007 contain an
unqualified auditors' report and will be delivered to the Registrar of
Companies following the company's Annual General Meeting which will be held
at Donaldson House, 97 Haymarket Terrace, Edinburgh on 12 December 2007
at 11.00am.
4. The Annual Report will be posted to shareholders in early November 2007
and copies will be available from the registered office.
Please note that past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future and
that the value of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise
and may be affected by exchange rate movements. Investors may not get back the
amount they originally invested. Where investment is made in emerging markets,
their potential volatility may increase the risk to the value of the investment.
For Edinburgh Dragon Trust plc
Edinburgh Fund Managers plc, Secretary
END
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