Interim Results part 1

Amlin PLC 04 September 2006 AMLIN PLC PRESS RELEASE For immediate release 4 September 2006 AMLIN DELIVERS ANOTHER STRONG RESULT Annualised first half return on equity, at 24.2%, above 20% for fourth consecutive year. Profit before tax of £120.1 million, down 13.2% owing to lower investment returns and IFRS currency translation •First half yield on average funds invested of only 1.5%, compared to 2.9% in H1 2005 •£45.5 million adverse effect of foreign exchange translation on net non-monetary liabilities relative to 2005 Underlying underwriting performance stronger •Gross premiums written up 25% to £846.2 million (H1 2005: £675.8 million) •London underwriting profit up 7.5% at £101.5 million (H1 2005: £94.4 million) •Solid start to Amlin Bermuda with underwriting profit of £23.6 million •Catastrophe exposures successfully reshaped Interim dividend increased 5% to 4.2p per share (H1 2005: 4p per share) Balance sheet materially strengthened with £230 million subordinated debt issue Positive outlook for full year and 2007 •Earned premiums expected to be skewed to second half more than in recent years •Net unearned premium reserve at 30 June 2006 up 19% to £779 million (at 30 June 2005: £653 million) •Average renewal rate increase to 31 July of 8.6% for London operation Charles Philipps, Chief Executive, commented as follows: 'This has been a busy and productive first half for Amlin. The six month result again demonstrates the strength of our business. While the profit is a touch down on last year, owing to exchange rate fluctuations, our annualised return on equity is still a very healthy 24%. With Amlin Bermuda building its potential and our reinsurance exposures repositioned to address changes in the market we are well placed going forward.' Enquiries: Charles Philipps, Chief Executive, Amlin plc 0207 746 1000 Richard Hextall, Finance Director, Amlin plc 0207 746 1000 Hannah Bale, Head of Communications, Amlin plc 0207 746 1118 David Haggie, Haggie Financial Limited 0207 417 8989 / 07768 332486 Peter Rigby, Haggie Financial Limited 0207 417 8989 / 07803 851426 Financial highlights Six months Six months 2005 12 months 2005 2006 (restated) (restated) £m £m £m --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross premiums written (1) 846.2 675.8 993.5 Net premiums written (1) 766.5 556.5 829.3 Earned premiums 481.8 395.5 822.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Profit before tax 120.1 138.4 186.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Per share amounts Operating profit 22.3p 34.4p 44.9p Earnings 17.9p 25.2p 34.3p Net assets 153.5p 135.2p 148.7p Net tangible assets 141.1p 118.7p 136.2p --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Group operating ratios (2) Claims ratio 49% 44% 57% Expense ratio 30% 25% 25% Combined ratio 79% 69% 82% Amlin Bermuda Ltd combined ratio 49% - - Syndicate 2001 combined ratio 84% 69% 82% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (1) excluding premiums associated with the reinsurance to close of our increased share of capacity (2) the combined ratios include Syndicate 2001 as if the Group owned 100% of capacity in all years INTERIM RESULTS STATEMENT We have had yet another excellent first half. In addition to delivering a very solid set of results, our exposures to catastrophe risk have been successfully repositioned to take account of the significant changes to risk appraisal and reinsurance markets following last year's hurricane season. With this, and a very promising start for Amlin Bermuda, we believe that we remain well placed to continue to deliver strong returns for our shareholders. Our first half pre-tax profit of £120.1 million (H1 2005 as restated: £138.4 million) is pleasing when taking account of an adverse £45.5 million change in the foreign exchange translation of net non-monetary liabilities relative to 2005(1). Six month return on equity was 12.1% increasing our weighted average annual return on equity since 2001 to 19.7%. Amlin Bermuda, in its first trading period, made a strong contribution recording a profit before tax of £36.8 million. The underlying result is analysed as follows: Table 1: Analysis of result Profit before tax Underwriting contribution H1 2006 H1 2005 H1 2006 H1 2005 £m £m £m £m As reported 120.1 138.4 101.8 116.6 IFRS translation adjustment 23.3 (22.2) 23.3 (22.2) ------------------------------------------------- Underlying result 143.4 116.2 125.1 94.4 ================================================= The underlying underwriting contribution was strong with our London operations delivering a return of £101.5 million and Amlin Bermuda a return of £23.6 million. This results from a healthy increase in premium income earned, coupled with a benign period for catastrophe events. Aggregate premium income written grew by 25%. Gross earned premium growth was lower at 13% reflecting the natural lag in recognition of earned premium as the portfolio grows. Net premium earned increased by 22% (excluding the premium for reinsurance to close the remainder of Syndicate 2001 from third parties). This reflects our strategy of purchasing less reinsurance protection for our own London reinsurance account and currently writing Amlin Bermuda's business without any reinsurance protection. The contribution from investments was marginally down at £37.7 million (H1 2005: £41.3 million). Average investment balances increased to £2.3 billion for the period (H1 2005: £1.6 billion) but weak bond markets and a lower, albeit satisfactory, return from our equity portfolio led to the reduction. Whilst earnings per share, at 17.9p (H1 2005 restated: 25.2p) were lower than in the first half of 2005, we expect earned premium to be more weighted to the second half than in prior years owing to the start up of Amlin Bermuda and the other factors highlighted under Outlook below. Dividend The Board has declared an interim dividend of 4.2 pence per share (H1 2005: 4.0 pence per share). This will be paid on 20 October 2006 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 29 September 2006. A dividend reinvestment plan, details of which may be obtained from the Company's registrar or from the Company's website, is available to shareholders in respect of this dividend. Trading conditions For the first time for a number of years trading conditions by class have diverged. During the first half of 2006 catastrophe exposed classes have experienced a pricing reappraisal with rate rises being most significant where available reinsurance capacity is scarce. However, in less catastrophe exposed lines, for example UK commercial classes and airlines, we have seen continued pricing pressure as good profits in recent years have led to more intense competition. Our rating indices (Table 2) illustrates this divergence whilst confirming the continued acceptable level of rates in most areas. Table 2: Rating indices for major classes (based on renewal) Class 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US catastrophe reinsurance 100 115 146 150 143 144 195 Non US catastrophe reinsurance 100 120 157 162 146 131 139 US large property insurance 100 125 180 166 143 136 176 Fleet motor 100 121 136 142 140 136 136 Per risk property reinsurance 100 122 190 192 171 145 163 Energy 100 140 172 189 170 176 282 US casualty 100 123 172 215 232 237 235 Professional indemnity 100 110 149 178 180 164 146 Marine hull 100 115 148 171 183 188 190 War 100 250 288 244 220 206 195 Airline hull and liabilities 100 296 278 234 215 191 163 Employers' liability 100 115 144 158 159 144 136 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overall the renewal rate increase to the end of July for Syndicate 2001 was 8.6% with 79% of the 2005 account being retained. Given that both Amlin Bermuda's and Syndicate 2001's new business has been concentrated in areas where rate increases have been the strongest, our expected underwriting margins will have grown by more than the renewal rate increase. The reappraisal of catastrophe exposed risk, whether through revised models used by reinsurers to assess possible claims costs from catastrophe events or through changes to business strategy driven by increased capital needed to support an 'A' financial strength rating, has had a far reaching effect on catastrophe lines and the speed of change has accelerated through the year. The level of re-pricing at the 1 January renewal season for property catastrophe reinsurance and property insurance was modest, especially so for non-US risk. However, when it became clear that the retrocessional reinsurance market (reinsurance of reinsurance) had shrunk, or was demanding huge rate increases, the pricing climate hardened. The effect on pricing has been pronounced in the United States where demand has outstripped available capacity. International catastrophe risk has seen lower rate rises but upward pressure on rates is increasing. We are positioned well to take advantage of these market conditions. With Amlin Bermuda commencing trading on 1 December 2005, property reinsurance is expected to make up 39% of our portfolio for 2006 (2005: 34%). Importantly, this growth has been controlled with risk management continuing to be a key area of focus for the business and reflecting our desire to maintain a well diversified exposure to underwriting risk. Underwriting performance Underwriting contribution, after removing the effect of exchange translation differences on non monetary liabilities, increased by £30.7 million to £125.1 million. The contributions of Syndicate 2001 and Amlin Bermuda were respectively £101.5 million and £23.6 million. The combined ratio, on a similar basis, was 75% (H1 2005: 74%). Net earned premium (excluding the premiums associated with the reinsurance to close of our increased share of capacity) rose by 22% to £481.8 million (H1 2005: £395.5 million). This growth is attributable to both an increase in business written by the Group and lower reinsurance expenditure. Premium income Gross premium written increased by 25% to £846.2 million with growth concentrated in the property, energy and reinsurance accounts in London, and the successful start up of Amlin Bermuda. Gross premium written reduced most in our UK commercial account as retention rates fell in the face of more intense pricing competition. In its first six months of trading, Amlin Bermuda wrote £161.8 million of business, of which £78.1million was new to the Group. We are pleased with the quality of business being written by Amlin Bermuda and while income to date is somewhat lower than the original plan, it still represents an excellent start for the company. Most of the shortfall arose at the beginning of the year, as the company received its financial strength ratings a little too late to take full advantage of the 1 January renewal season. Additionally, competition for international catastrophe business early in the year made it initially more difficult to satisfactorily build that part of the account. As explained below, Amlin Bermuda's risk appetite was also reduced to help compensate for greater catastrophe risk being carried by Syndicate 2001. Outwards reinsurance Reinsurance expenditure as a proportion of gross written premium has fallen to 9.4% from 17.7% for the same period last year. This reflects Amlin Bermuda writing business without reinsurance protection and reduced expenditure for the London business. Claims The claims environment over the last six months has been favourable with no major natural catastrophes impacting the Group. However, we have experienced a higher frequency of larger risk losses on the marine, property and aviation accounts in this period, underscoring in part the exceptionally low level of losses that we have seen in recent years. The prior year run off profit in the period was £26 million (H1 2005: £30 million). Looking forward, our reserving policy remains unchanged and we would expect to continue seeing a positive contribution from our prior period reserves if normal development is experienced. We have continued to receive notifications and updates from our clients relating to last year's hurricanes. We have been able to make a small release from our overall reserves and still consider that the reserves held are robust. Overall, the claims ratio was again very creditable, at 49% (2005 H1: 44%). Expenses Business acquisition costs were similar to the same period in 2005, at approximately 18% of gross earned premium. The increase in other operating expenses is attributable to the movement in exchange rates on the value of net non monetary liabilities. We have made savings in Lloyd's and some other costs which have offset the additional expenses of Amlin Bermuda. Segmental commentary The following commentary and Table 3 is provided on the basis that Amlin owned all of Syndicate 2001's capacity for all relevant underwriting years so that changes in ownership do not distort the performance. In addition, the commentary is after removing the effect of the foreign exchange translation of non monetary liabilities to allow focus on the business trends. Table 3: Divisional combined ratios Non- UK Amlin Total marine Marine commercial Aviation Bermuda ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net premiums earned (£m) 246.7 83.5 79.0 29.8 45.9 484.9 Combined ratios before removing the effect of foreign exchange translation of non monetary liabilities Claims ratio 40% 57% 63% 84% 37% 49% Expense ratio 33% 40% 24% 42% 12% 30% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Combined ratio H1 2006 73% 97% 87% 126% 49% 79% Combined ratio H1 2005 62% 68% 79% 80% - 69% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Combined ratios after removing the effect of foreign exchange translation of non monetary liabilities Claims ratio 39% 56% 62% 81% 37% 48% Expense ratio 28% 35% 24% 35% 12% 27% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Combined ratio H1 2006 67% 91% 86% 116% 49% 75% Combined ratio H1 2005 69% 73% 79% 90% - 74% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Non- marine (51% of net earned premium in period) Our London non-marine combined ratio at 67% (H1 2005: 69%) is another excellent first half result. Net earned premium has increased by 15% reflecting growth in the property and property reinsurance accounts into strengthening market conditions. The claims ratio reflects the benign environment for catastrophe losses in the first half. The fall in the expense ratio largely reflects a shift towards reinsurance which carries lower brokerage costs. Amlin Bermuda (10% of net earned premium in period) Amlin Bermuda's combined ratio of 49% is a very solid start. With 97% of its direct/non-group income being derived from property reinsurance it is not surprising that it has benefited from the benign claims environment noted above. The company has made excellent strides towards its strategic aim of building a diverse reinsurance portfolio similar to the high quality account of Syndicate 2001. Marine (17% of net earned premium in period) The marine division's combined ratio has increased to 91% (H1 2005: 73%). The claims ratio has increased to 56% from 42% reflecting higher than average specie claims during the period. Gross premium written has increased by 33%, with growth concentrated in the energy account where income has been increased by 91% in the first six months while exposures to modelled losses have successfully been reduced. Net earned premium has increased by only 20%, however, as higher reinsurance costs have been expensed faster than this new premium is earned. This effect will unwind over time. The expense ratio has also increased due to growth in classes that carry higher brokerage costs including energy and yacht. UK commercial (16% of net earned premium in period) The UK commercial combined ratio of 86% (H1 2005: 79%) is another good result. The claims ratio remains healthy at 62% despite increasingly competitive market conditions in commercial motor and liability classes and has been helped by a continuing good run off of prior years. The expense ratio increase reflects lower levels of gross written and net earned premium, down 8.7% and 3.2% respectively, and a change in mix of business away from motor to liability business which has higher brokerage rates. Aviation (6% of net earned premium in period) The aviation result is disappointing with a combined ratio of 116% (H1 2005: 90%). Written and earned income are relatively stable but well down from the highs in 2001 and 2002. The airline account continues to be under pressure but the other aviation classes continue to attract rate increases. The swing in the result reflects the continued shrinkage of the higher margin but more volatile airline account in the face of increased competition coupled with a series of small to medium sized airline losses. On a small income base where pricing has become less attractive, frequency of claims can quickly turn a good combined ratio to negative. However, we continue to believe that our strategy of reducing exposures and becoming more selective is correct in these conditions. Reinsurance and exposure management strategy A major focus during the period, as a consequence of the enormously changing reinsurance markets, has been our decision to reshape our exposures to help ensure that we continue to generate acceptable returns while managing appropriately the downside risk of major catastrophes. Historically Amlin has bought significant levels of reinsurance to reduce the volatility of the underwriting result, and to manage the risk of severe events weakening the Group's financial strength. We were able to renew our reinsurance programmes for direct insurance accounts (for example property, marine, aviation and UK commercial) in a similar manner to the previous year, albeit at an increased total cost. However, we considered the pricing and levels at which we were offered both retrocessional cover, (to protect our Syndicate reinsurance account), and umbrella cover, (a whole account protection that has sat above all of our insurance and reinsurance protections), to be uneconomic. We have therefore bought significantly less of these types of reinsurance and decided to reduce our gross catastrophe exposures in Syndicate 2001. By managing down these exposures we believe that the risk return equation is better for Amlin, particularly taking account of the significantly improved pricing for inwards catastrophe business. In Syndicate 2001, much of this reduction in exposure has focused on the reinsurance account by reducing or non renewing lines. Also, in the early part of the year Amlin Bermuda, which initially had little exposure of its own, was able to offer Syndicate 2001 retrocessional cover so as to contain the net exposure of the London business to acceptable levels. The cost of this protection was $12 million and has all expired without loss - effectively delivering a cost saving to the Group as a whole. With no umbrella protection, we have also actively managed down our property and energy exposures. To illustrate this: by 1 July 2006 the gross loss for our modelled Gulf of Mexico Syndicate realistic disaster scenario had been reduced by 27% and 40% for our direct property insurance and energy portfolios respectively when compared to scenarios as at 1 January 2006. Recognising the additional volatility being borne by Syndicate 2001, and with Amlin Bermuda writing a quota share of the syndicate, Amlin Bermuda also reduced its risk appetite by $50 million to $200 million for a single zone and $250 million for multi zone perils. Having implemented the above changes, we believe we have satisfactorily reduced the Group's gross exposures such that the Group is within its risk appetite for the US windstorm season. All of our current modelled single zone event scenario net losses are under £225 million, with the highest modelled event loss being a potential Japanese earthquake. For multi zone scenarios our highest modelled event loss, being a $65billion US northeast windstorm, has been successfully managed down to approximately £330 million. Set against this we have saved approximately $70 million of reinsurance cost compared to 2005. Finally, maintaining our underwriting diversity, by class and within classes, continues to provide a cushion to the catastrophe exposure. Investment return Table 4: H1 2006 investment mix and returns Average balances in H1 Syndicate Corporate Total Total Investment return £m £m £m % % -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Property 5.9 - 5.9 0.2% -1.3% Equities - 129.3 129.3 5.7% 6.4% Debt securities 1,144.7 103.0 1,247.7 54.7% 0.5% Cash and cash equivalents 133.7 764.9 898.6 39.4% 2.3% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,284.3 997.2 2,281.5 100.0% 1.5% Investments contributed £37.7 million to the first half result (H1 2005: £41.3 million). Overall the investment base rose with average investments amounting to £2.3 billion for the first half compared to £1.6 billion in the same period last year. However, the reduction in return reflects lower contributions from the bond and equity portfolios compared to 2005. Much of the increase in the investment base arises out of the capitalisation of Amlin Bermuda late last year through new equity and debt issues. The Bermuda assets amount to $1 billion and are invested against US dollar benchmarks. In the first six months these assets were invested in cash funds and returned 2.3%, a good return when compared to US dollar bonds. The Syndicate's policyholders' funds, amounting to average funds of £1.3 billion for the period (H1 2005: £1.2 billion), were invested in short dated bonds. However, the continued increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the United States as well as concerns over inflation and nervousness over rate rises in the United Kingdom, resulted in a poor period for bonds with our sterling return amounting to only 0.8% (H1 2005: 3.4%) and US dollar returns of only 0.3% (H1 2005: 1.2%). The London corporate funds have continued to be invested in equities and cash for much of the first half although part of the cash balance has now been invested in short dated sterling bonds. The cash funds returned 2.3% (H1 2005: 2.4%). The equity portfolio produced a good return of 6.4% (H1 2005: 10.3%) in more challenging markets, with our equity manager outperforming their benchmark by 7.4%. Performance through the first half year in equity markets was volatile, with a stronger than expected first quarter and disappointing second quarter. We took advantage of better first quarter performance to purchase an equity put option, which expires on 29 December 2006, for approximately 20% of the portfolio at its then value. Taxation The effective rate of tax for the period is 21.0% (H1 2005: 27.7%). The low effective rate is due to a combination of factors. First, Amlin Bermuda operates locally with no corporation tax. As we believe the company meets the requirements to be exempt from controlled foreign company status in the UK, no current tax is provided. Deferred tax has been provided to take account of tax that will become due on distribution of profits from Bermuda. Secondly we have again utilised brought forward unprovided capital losses to offset capital gains from the equity portfolio. Balance sheet strength and flexibility The Group's balance sheet has continued to be strengthened. Cash flow within the Group has been healthy and we were pleased to see the release of £196 million from our Syndicate trust funds through the new quicker Lloyd's distribution system. In April, Amlin issued its first public debt placement raising £230 million of subordinated debt in the UK market and opening up access to another source of long term capital. The subordinated debt provides the Group with better quality debt capital. It is long term, repayable after 20 years with a call date after 10 years. Historically we have had to renegotiate our bank facilities at least every two years. Additionally, it is unsecured, contains no financial covenants which could lead to early repayment and is eligible as capital under FSA rules. The purpose of the debt issue was to refinance part of the short term debt of £243 million that was raised in November 2005 to initially finance Amlin Bermuda. This has all now been repaid out of free cash flow or the proceeds of our long term debt issue. The changes to the debt structure are reflected in the increase in financing costs from £3.5 million to £12.4 million for the first half. Historically Amlin has used letters of credit to finance part of its Lloyd's capital. Only the commission charges were recognised as finance costs because no cash was received by Amlin. With the subordinated debt, Amlin's cash and investments are increased and we benefit from the investment return on the monies raised. Our internal modelling confirms the strength of our current capital position with the total debt to capital ratio now standing at 26% (31 December 2005: 36%), an acceptable position at this point in the cycle. We would expect that this ratio will decline as we move through the cycle such that the financial risk is reduced when margins on the underwriting business are lower. Another area of focus in the first six months has been the effective management of the Group's reinsurance assets, which were materially increased following the hurricane events of last year. To date we have collected $265 million from reinsurers out of $306 million that has fallen due in respect of last year's hurricanes. This leaves a further $330 million to collect once we have paid the underlying claims. The quality of the overall outstanding reinsurance recoveries remains good with 97% from reinsurers with an Insurance Financial Strength Rating of A- or better. During the period we recorded an exchange loss of £42 million through consolidated reserves on the retranslation of Amlin's Bermudian companies. With Amlin Bermuda writing predominantly dollar denominated risk and it being the Company's start-up year, we have not hedged its balance sheet. Operational improvements We set out in our 2005 annual report a number of initiatives for 2006 that would move us closer to our vision of Amlin in 2009. A number of these initiatives were focused on effecting operational change within the business. They included increasing our electronic trading capability and claims services to ensure that Amlin's team are operating with the best systems and Amlin's clients are receiving top quality service. During 2006 to date we have made big strides in delivering these ambitions. This has included a range of projects where we have worked with a number of other Lloyd's agents, collectively known in the market as 'G6', to act as a catalyst for change. This recognises that, as we operate as part of a subscription market, only solutions that work for the majority will benefit our clients. We are now in a position where we can trade and transfer information electronically with two of our main broking partners and expect that other brokers will quickly follow. This should help to increase speed of placement, enhance service to our clients and make the whole process more efficient. We have continued to enhance our London Market claims offering through enhancing skills and systems. Again, this will improve our service and will make the claims process more efficient for us and brokers. Outlook Our outlook for the full year remains good. We recognise that the windstorm seasons in the Atlantic and Pacific are still to pass but rating conditions have adjusted to reflect an increased frequency and severity of storms. We expect net earned premium to be more skewed to the second half of 2006 than in recent years. This is due to the growth in gross premium written generated in the first six months, with rate increases accelerating through the period. Therefore, as we earn premium income through the whole policy period, the impact of this growth in the period on earned premium is more muted than for written premium. This effect will unwind through the year, particularly as the renewal dates for the classes of business in which we are growing most are concentrated in the first half of the year. Also, with less reinsurance purchased in London and none in Bermuda, the growth in gross earned premium will feed more directly into the results. Indeed, net unearned premium at 30 June 2006 has increased to £779 million; a £126 million or 19% increase on that at the same date last year. As has become a feature of our results we expect to continue to generate run-off profits from our prudently set reserves as long as we experience normal, or better than normal, claims development. We would normally expect that the investment side of the business should generate a bigger contribution than we have reported in the first half of 2006. As noted above the bond market was particularly testing in the period but we began the second half of the year with higher yields. In addition, our cash and investment balances remain strong and are 2.8 times the size of our equity shareholders' funds. In line with our strategy we have grown income most in lines where conditions have been strongest, such as catastrophe reinsurance and energy insurance, and have contracted where weakening conditions are resulting in more questionable margins, such as our UK commercial classes and airlines. While our growth in income this year has been in some of our more volatile accounts, our overall exposures have been managed to contain our downside catastrophe risk within acceptable limits. We also expect to grow the attritional content of our catastrophe exposed accounts when conditions are supportive of growth. We anticipate that catastrophe exposed risk will remain well priced into 2007, and most probably beyond. The extent of severe events and fresh capital into this part of the industry going forward will be major determinants of actual conditions. In other areas we anticipate that there will be a gradual softening of rates but are hopeful that there will not be a slide and that some areas, such as UK commercial motor insurance, may take a positive turn before too long. With market conditions diverging between business lines, we expect the value of our diversity to be realised once again through our ability to allocate capital between lines with a view to optimising the relationship between our risk and expected return. We continue to look to the future confident of our ability to deliver our target returns. (1) The exchange difference on net non-monetary liabilities arises through translation of unearned premium reserves, deferred reinsurance expenditure and deferred acquisition costs at average historical rates, whereas all other related monetary balance sheet items are translated at the closing rate of exchange. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange UAAARNURKRUR
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