AMLIN PLC
27 August 1999
SYNDICATE FORECASTS
Amlin Underwriting Limited ('AML') and Angerstein Underwriting Limited
('AUL'), the two Lloyd's managing agencies owned by Amlin plc have released
updated forecasts of the results of their managed Lloyd's syndicates for the
1997 year of account and initial forecasts for the 1998 year of account.
The forecasts, which are set out below, are expressed in a 5% range as a
percentage of capacity and are after standard Names' expenses, including
agents fees and profit commission.
1997 year of account
Syndicate Capacity % owned Latest forecast Previous forecast
No. £m by Amlin % to % % to %
902 37.6 14% 7.00 to 12.00 7.00 to 12.00
1141 76.2 6% 2.00 to 7.00 2.00 to 7.00
2001 528.6 11% (2.00) to 3.00 (1.50) to 3.50
The marginal reduction in the syndicate 2001 forecast result is due to lower
forecast investment income than had previously been assumed. While investment
returns on the syndicate's portfolio of premium trust fund assets have
exceeded AML's benchmark used for measuring performance, forecast total
returns in calendar year 1999 are adversely affected by uncertainty over
future interest rates.
The syndicate forecasts set out above take no account of movements in respect
of 1996 and prior year reserves. Both AML and AUL believe that any releases
from prior year reserves are unlikely to be material.
1998 year of account
Syndicate No. Capacity % owned Forecast
£m by Amlin % to %
902 37.6 35% (2.00) to 3.00
1141 76.2 22% 0.00 to 5.00
2001 528.7 24% (6.00) to (1.00)
The forecasts for the 1998 year of account are indicative of the difficult
underwriting climate which has resulted from a global excess of insurance
capacity.
Syndicate 2001
Syndicate 2001's results for the 1997 and 1998 years of account were
significantly influenced by the inclusion in the results of former sub-
syndicate 919 which underwrote general liability and professional indemnity
accounts. This business' forecast 1998 year of account losses represent
approximately 37% of the forecast losses of syndicate 2001. This business has
now been largely discontinued as part of management's continuing policy of
eliminating those elements of the underwriting account which are unprofitable
and lack long term potential.
1999 Outlook
While it is early days for the 1999 year of account, management actions taken
and the increase in rates being achieved on the motor book indicate that
Amlin's managed syndicates will show an improvement over the 1998 year of
account.
Amlin plc
In its balance sheet at 31 December 1998, Amlin plc is carrying reserves of
some £8.8 million in respect of potential losses on its underwriting on the
1997 and 1998 years of account from both its managed and 'spread' syndicates.
The mid-points of the 1998 year of account managed syndicates' forecasts would
result in a loss to the Amlin Group of £4.8 million.
Enquiries:
Charles Philipps, Amlin plc 0171 860 8222
David Haggie, Haggie Financial Limited 0171 417 8989
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