Syndicate Forecasts

Amlin PLC
25 February 2004


Press release


25 February 2004


                                   AMLIN PLC


                        SYNDICATE RESULTS AND FORECASTS


  Amlin revises 2002 forecasts upwards and provides initial forecast for 2003



Amlin plc ('Amlin'), the leading Lloyd's insurer, today releases Syndicate
2001's final result for the 2001 year of account, an updated forecast for the
2002 year of account and an initial forecast for the 2003 year of account.


The result and forecasts in the table below are after all personal expenses and
are expressed as a percentage of capacity.

                                        
                                        Result/latest
              Capacity        %           forecast           Previous forecast
   Year of          £m     owned           % to %                 % to %
   account
      2001       574.5     69.6             1.1                (1.5) to 3.5
      2002       800.0     72.3        14.5 to 19.5            13.5 to 18.5
      2003     1,000.0     86.2        10.0 to 15.0                N/a


The final profit for the 2001 year of account is 13.4% of capacity before the
loss from terrorist attacks on 11 September which amounted to 12.3% of capacity.
This reflects very strong underlying performance from all of Amlin's core
business divisions.


The improvement in the 2002 forecast reflects continued good claims experience
and further reduction in live exposure on business written in 2002.


The 2003 year of account is at a very early stage of development and, as with
last year, we have therefore adopted a cautious approach. It compares with the
2002 year of account forecast at the same stage of 11.0% to 16.0%. Claims
experience continues to be good, illustrated by Syndicate 2001's incurred claims
ratio (gross paid and notified claims as a percent of gross signed premiums, net
of brokerage).

                                         Gross incurred claims ratio
                          at 12 months        at 24 months          at 36 months
2000 account*                 30.2%                 64.2%                 78.3%
2001 account*                 45.7%                 51.3%                 59.7%
2002 account                  19.7%                 39.3%
2003 account                  19.1%


* excluding 11 September terrorist losses


The relative weakness of the US dollar, coupled with lower anticipated
investment yields on the syndicate portfolios, is expected to affect the outcome
for the 2003 year of account. However, Amlin expects that the 2002 and 2003
forecasts will continue to improve if a normal level of loss development is
experienced throughout the remainder of the year.



Charles Philipps, Chief Executive of Amlin, said: 'The positive result in 2001,
despite the terrorist losses, provides clear demonstration of the strength of
our underwriting. 2002 continues to improve and for 2003, when we owned more of
our capacity than ever before, our current forecasts indicate another good
return.


Current trading remains good following a positive January renewal season where
we continued to experience a strong rating environment.'


Enquiries:


Amlin plc  020 7746 1000

Charles Philipps, Chief Executive

Richard Hextall, Finance Director


Haggie Financial  020 7417 8989

David Haggie

Peter Rigby






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