Amlin PLC
23 August 2002
PRESS RELEASE
Amlin plc: Syndicate Forecasts
For immediate release
23 August 2002
• Trading outlook remains strong
• Good underlying performance offsets 11 September movements
Amlin Underwriting Limited, the leading managing agency owned by Amlin plc, has
updated its forecasts in respect of the 2000 and 2001 years of account.
Current trading
Trading conditions in the year to date have remained strong in all classes of
Amlin's business and the outlook for underwriting for the remainder of 2002 and
for 2003 remains favourable.
Gross written premium income for Syndicate 2001 (net of brokerage) in the first
six months of 2002 was £510 million, an increase of 54% over the gross written
premium at the same stage in 2001, of £330 million.
In addition to the strong underwriting conditions and the increased premium
income, the first six months of 2002 have experienced a low level of losses with
Syndicate 2001 recording, on its 2002 year of account, an overall gross incurred
loss ratio of 6.4%. This compares to a gross incurred loss ratio for the 2001
year of account, at the same stage in 2001, of 13.0%.
2001 year of account forecast
Syndicate 2001 continued to experience improvement in its underlying performance
for the 2001 year of account, although was adversely affected by losses from the
11 September terrorist events as previously announced. The impact of these
events, at Syndicate 2001 level, on the 2001 year of account, is currently
estimated to be $129.7 million, or 14.8% of capacity (at quarter end rates).
The latest forecasts for the 2001 year of account results, both including and
excluding the effects of 11 September losses, are set out below. They are
expressed as a percentage of capacity and after standard Name's expenses
including agent's fees and commission.
Capacity % owned by Amlin Forecast including Forecast excluding 11
£m 11 September losses September losses %
% to % to %
574.5 69.6% (6.0) % to (1.0)% 8.8% to 13.8%
The forecast excluding 11 September losses has improved since the forecast
announced on 24 May 2002 by 2.5% of capacity. This has more than offset an
increase in the estimate of 11 September losses, equivalent to approximately
1.5% of capacity.
2000 year of account forecasts
Amlin's principal syndicate trading in 2000 was Syndicate 2001. Syndicates 902
and 1141 ceased to trade in 2000. The 2000 year of account has also been
affected by the 11 September terrorist attacks. Excluding losses from 11
September, Syndicate 2001 is forecast to deliver a profit, at the mid-point of
the range, of 1.5% of capacity.
Syndicates 1141 and 2001 both witnessed greater than normal loss development on
their medical malpractice and other US Casualty accounts during the second
quarter and the forecasts for the 2000 year of account have been adjusted to
reflect a cautious view on ultimate claims from this development. In addition
the estimated 11 September loss for Syndicate 1141 increased by £900,000 (1.2%
of capacity) for the quarter.
Syndicate Capacity % owned by Amlin Latest forecasts Previous Forecast
No £m % to % % to %
902 37.6 56.7% (32.5) to (27.5) (32.5) to (27.5)
1141 76.3 69.7% (35.0) to (30.0) (31.0) to (26.0)
2001 423.4 55.8% (5.0) to 0.0 (4.0) to 1.0
Total 537.2
Charles Philipps, Chief Executive of Amlin, says:
'The first six months' trading has been very encouraging and we are increasingly
confident that this hard market will continue into 2003 and possibly beyond'.
Enquiries:
Charles Philipps, Chief Executive, Amlin plc 020 7746 1050
Richard Hextall, Finance Director, Amlin plc 020 7746 1054
David Haggie, Haggie Financial 020 7417 8989
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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