Interim Results
Atlantis Japan Growth Fund Ld
14 January 2005
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
RELEASED BY MANAGEMENT INTERNATIONAL (GUERNSEY) LIMITED
ATLANTIS JAPAN GROWTH FUND LIMITED
PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT
THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF ATLANTIS JAPAN GROWTH FUND LIMITED ANNOUNCE UNAUDITED
RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31ST OCTOBER 2004:
BALANCE SHEET
As at 31st October 2004
(Expressed in United States Dollars)
2004 2003
$'000 $'000
FIXED ASSETS
Investments at market value 397,746 314,734
(cost $309,328,735 (2003 - $221,833,181)
CURRENT ASSETS
Due from brokers 2,140 1,972
Dividends and interest receivable 1,052 629
Bank balances 10,763 7,722
Prepayments 20 10
13,975 10,333
CURRENT LIABILITIES
Due to brokers 3,561 4,242
Creditors and accrued expenses 693 538
Loans payable 14,149 -
18,403 4,780
NET CURRENT (LIABILITIES)/ASSETS (4,428) 5,553
CREDITORS AMOUNTS FALLING DUE AFTER ONE YEAR
Loans Payable 28,298 40,876
TOTAL NET ASSETS 365,020 279,411
CAPITAL & RESERVES
Called-up share capital 204 204
Share premium 192,650 192,650
Other reserves 172,166 86,557
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' FUNDS 365,020 279,411
NET ASSET VALUE PER ORDINARY SHARE $17.86 $13.67
(Based on 20,435,627 (2003 - 20,435,627) ordinary shares and a Net Asset Value
of $365,019,620 (2003 - $279,411,000))
UNAUDITED STATEMENT OF TOTAL RETURN
(incorporating the Revenue Account)
For the six months ended 31st October 2004
(Expressed in United States Dollars)
Revenue Capital Total
$'000 $'000 $'000
Realised gain on sales of investments - 36,266 36,266
Unrealised depreciation of investments - (69,500) (69,500)
Exchange loss - (1,143) (1,143)
Investment income 1,729 - 1,729
Deposit interest 10 - 10
1,739 (34,377) (32,638)
Investment management fee 2,824 - 2,824
Custodian fees 165 - 165
Administration fees 123 - 123
Registrar and transfer agent fees 23 - 23
Directors' fees and expenses 54 - 54
Interest expense and bank charges 213 - 213
Insurance fees 57 - 57
Audit fee 15 - 15
Printing and advertising fees 28 - 28
Legal and professional fees 5 - 5
Listing fees 14 - 14
Miscellaneous expenses 7 - 7
3,528 - 3,528
DEFICIT ON ORDINARY
ACTIVITIES BEFORE TAX (1,789) (34,377) (36,166)
Tax on ordinary activities (121) - (121)
DEFICIT ATTRIBUTABLE TO
EQUITY SHAREHOLDERS (1,910) (34,377) (36,287)
DEFICIT PER
ORDINARY SHARE : $(0.094) $(1.682) $(1.776)
(Based on the weighted average of 20,435,627 Ordinary Shares and the deficit
attributable to Equity Shareholders noted above)
UNAUDITED STATEMENT OF TOTAL RETURN
(incorporating the Revenue Account)
For the six months ended 31st October 2003
(Expressed in United States Dollars)
Revenue Capital Total
$'000 $'000 $'000
Realised loss on sales of investments - 5,372 5,372
Unrealised appreciation of investments - 104,106 104,106
Exchange gain/(loss) 327 (2,210) (1,883)
Investment income 1,287 - 1,287
Deposit interest 6 - 6
1,620 107,268 108,888
Investment management fee 1,620 - 1,620
Custodian fees 114 - 114
Administration fees 103 - 103
Registrar and transfer agent fees 7 - 7
Directors' fees and expenses 48 - 48
Interest expense and bank charges 116 - 116
Audit fee 16 - 16
Printing and advertising fees 17 - 17
Legal and professional fees 20 - 20
Listing fees 15 - 15
Miscellaneous expenses 3 - 3
2,079 - 2,079
(DEFICIT)/RETURN ON ORDINARY ACTIVITIES
BEFORE TAX (459) 107,268 106,809
Tax on ordinary activities (193) - (193)
(DEFICIT)/RETURN ATTRIBUTABLE TO
EQUITY SHAREHOLDERS (652) 107,268 106,616
(DEFICIT)/RETURN PER
ORDINARY SHARE : $(0.032) $5.249 $5.217
(Based on the weighted average of 20,435,627 Ordinary Shares and the (deficit)/return
attributable to Equity Shareholders noted above.)
UNAUDITED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
For the six months ended 31st October 2004
(Expressed in United States Dollars)
2004 2003
$'000 $'000 $'000 $'000
OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Net cash (outflow)/inflow from operating activities (856) 181
SERVICING OF FINANCE
Interest paid (209) (116)
FINANCIAL INVESTMENT
Purchase of investments (125,009) (92,551)
Sale of investments 128,091 85,672
Net cash inflow/(outflow) from investing activities 3,082 (6,879)
Increase/(Decrease) in cash 2,017 (6,814)
RECONCILIATION OF NET CASH FLOW
TO MOVEMENT IN NET DEBT
Increase/(decrease) in cash as above 2,017 (6,814)
Exchange movements (1,143) (2,210)
Movement in net cash/(debt) in the period 874 (9,024)
Net debt at 1st May (32,558) (24,130)
Net debt at 31st October (31,684) (33,154)
ATLANTIS JAPAN GROWTH FUND LIMITED
INVESTMENT MANAGER'S REPORT
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31ST OCTOBER 2004
PERFORMANCE
Slower than expected domestic economic growth, rising prices for oil and other
commodities, a stronger Yen, and growing uncertainty among local investors
combined to push the Tokyo Market lower during the six-month period to 31st
October 2004. The Net Asset Value ('NAV') of the Fund ended October at $17.86
per share, down 9.1% from the end of April. In contrast, in US dollar terms, the
Tokyo First Section Index ('Topix') finished the period down by 4.9% whilst the
Tokyo Second Market declined by 2.7%. Low quality stocks performed relatively
well over the period as they caught up with the rest of the market so the Fund
underperformed the indices following a period of significant outperformance.
Since inception in May 1996, the NAV per share of the Fund has risen by 80%
versus a 36.8% decline in the Topix and a 28.4% rise in the Tokyo Second Market
Index, in US dollars terms.
At the end of the period under review, the Fund had borrowings of Y4.5 billion
($42.5 million) and cash (net of commitments) of about Y985 million ($9.3
million). The Fund is therefore about 9.1% leveraged. The Fund had no foreign
currency hedges as of 31 October, so the Fund's value in US dollars benefits
fully from any appreciation of the Yen and, conversely, would be hurt if the Yen
weakened. During the period under review, the Yen appreciated approximately 3.9%
against the US dollar as the exchange rate moved from Y110.185 to Y106.015.
There are no outstanding warrants and the number of outstanding shares remains
at 20,435,627.
MARKET OUTLOOK
At the beginning of the period under review, investors in Japan were generally
bullish, with spirits buoyed by an improving economy, rising corporate earnings,
low share price valuations, and favourable stock market performance in the
preceding months. As time passed, however, their enthusiasm was dimmed by a
series of disheartening developments, including disappointing quarterly GDP
figures, a continued rise in prices for crude oil and other commodities, selling
by local investors, profit-taking in smaller stocks, the appreciation of the
Yen, and weakness in major overseas stock markets. With enthusiasm among local
investors waning, stock prices began to slip lower and by the end of October all
major Japanese stock indices were down.
The Japanese economy continues to expand, however, and for the current fiscal
year ending March 2005 we expect real GDP growth of 3.0-3.5% and for next fiscal
year we see growth of around 2%. Corporate earnings should finish this fiscal
year sharply higher, aided by both the improving economy and past restructuring.
We expect pre-tax earnings growth of 20-25% this fiscal year and look for
earning growth of about 15% next fiscal year. Growth at the after-tax profit
level should be even higher thanks to the absence of extraordinary losses that
weighed down earnings last year.
ATLANTIS JAPAN GROWTH FUND LIMITED
INVESTMENT MANAGER'S REPORT (continued)
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31ST OCTOBER 2004
Exports and private sector capital investments are currently the main
locomotives of domestic economic growth. Contributions to growth from consumer
spending are only slightly positive, with spending having been depressed by cool
summer temperatures, a series of typhoons and, most recently, the earthquake in
Niigata Prefecture. Automobile sales can be described as flat at best, and sales
at department stores and supermarkets have been trending lower.
However, there are hopeful signs on the household income front. December bonuses
are expected to be higher this year than last, and many companies are making
plans to hire additional workers from next April, the traditional beginning of
the Japanese fiscal year. Interest rates remain low and do not appear likely to
move much higher in the near future. This is, of course, positive for the
housing market, which has been stronger than expected.
The largest potential negatives we see at this time are high prices for crude
oil and other commodities, a slowdown in the world economy, which could
eventually hurt Japanese exports, and weakness in overseas stock markets. The
ongoing unrest in Iraq and the threat of some type of terrorist attack have also
had a negative impact on investor sentiment.
Looking at the forces of supply and demand in the Japanese stock market, we find
selling by domestic pension funds, including selling related to the return of
company-managed funds to the national pension system (or daiko henjo), has
almost run its course; by next spring we believe local pension accounts will
have completed their selling and may even become net buyers. Selling by banks
continues as they work to improve their balance sheets; the largest part of bank
selling is now past, however, and from next fiscal year we believe banks will,
at worst, be only small net sellers. Japanese corporations continue to unwind
cross shareholdings and this will no doubt continue for the next several years.
We note, however, that this is being partly or fully offset by corresponding
share buybacks.
Local investment trusts have been steady net buyers. At this time they are still
relatively small but this could change as more banks gear up to promote
investment trusts. In the longer term, we believe local investment trusts could
grow to have a substantial impact on the market. Japanese individual investors
currently account for 40-50% of average daily trading (doing most trading via
the Internet) and they have been sellers for most of the year, but we believe
individual investors could again become significant net buyers if and when their
confidence returns. We think this could happen if the domestic economy shows
signs of continued improvement and corporate earnings continue to grow.
Overseas investors have been the primary buyers in the Japanese market thus far
this year and we believe they will remain net buyers. Overseas investors
obviously need some help from local investors, though, and we are hopeful that
local buying will eventually pick up.
ATLANTIS JAPAN GROWTH FUND LIMITED
INVESTMENT MANAGER'S REPORT (continued)
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31ST OCTOBER 2004
OUR STRATEGY AND THE PORTFOLIO
Despite a number of uncertainties including rising oil prices, a stronger Yen,
and slowing economic growth in China and elsewhere in the world, we do not
consider the current economic climate in Japan to be particularly bad. Indeed,
as mentioned previously, we fully expect the Japanese economy to continue
expanding, see corporate earnings pushing higher again next fiscal year, and
expect interest rates to remain low.
At the individual stock level, we are still finding many interesting buy
candidates. As before, we usually find the best value and fastest growth among
small and medium-sized companies. We find that many of these smaller companies
are well managed, focused, and flexible, and are thus able to quickly adapt to
changing conditions. The stocks of some are also still undervalued. This is not
to say that we do not also consider larger companies. We keep an open mind to
opportunities in all areas and still visit a number of larger companies as well.
The essence of our approach is bottom-up research, and the mainstay of our
research effort is an intensive company-visiting program. We like to visit a
wide range of companies, from small to large, and in every kind of industry.
Some of our best investments have been in companies in the retail and service
industries, where revolutionary changes are now taking place. We also favour
companies with strong positions in niche markets with high growth potential,
examples of which include new materials and healthcare-related products such as
dental equipment.
In our stock selection we stress value and growth. We try to project earnings
over the next 3-4 years and compare our earnings estimates with broker
estimates, when available. We also like to buy companies that are not yet well
followed but which we hope will eventually be picked up for coverage by broker
analysts and attract the attention of larger funds as the companies grow larger
and their market capitalisation expands.
We have also been buying a number of cyclical growth stocks and recovery stocks,
which we expect to benefit from the ongoing growth in the economy.
We have sold off a number of companies that did not meet our earnings
expectations or where we lost confidence in the management.
Patience is a characteristic of a successful investor, and is especially
important when the market is weak or the outlook uncertain. We would like to
thank our shareholders for their patience. With our continued emphasis on value
and growth, we believe this patience will continue to be rewarded.
Atlantis Fund Management (Guernsey) Limited
December 2004
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