Interim Results
Atlantis Japan Growth Fund Ld
18 December 2006
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
RELEASED BY HSBC SECURITIES SERVICES (GUERNSEY) LIMITED
ATLANTIS JAPAN GROWTH FUND LIMITED
PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT
APPROVED BY THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS ON 15TH DECEMBER, 2006
THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF ATLANTIS JAPAN GROWTH FUND LIMITED ANNOUNCE UNAUDITED
RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31ST OCTOBER, 2006.
BALANCE SHEET
AS AT 31ST OCTOBER 2006
2006 2005
$'000 $'000
Non Current Assets
Investments held at fair value 539,831 535,198
Current Assets
Due from brokers 1,796 1,546
Dividends and interest receivable 1,874 1,295
Other receivables 59 31
Cash and cash equivalents 1,685 3,444
5,414 6,316
Current Liabilities
Due to brokers (2,010) (4,233)
Payables and accrued expenses (946) (807)
Loans payable - (25,782)
(2,956) (30,822)
Net Current Assets/(Liabilities) 2,458 (24,506)
Non Current Liabilities
Loans payable (55,679) (30,079)
Net Assets 486,610 480,613
Equity
Ordinary share capital 204 204
Share premium 192,650 192,650
Revenue reserve (20,559) (16,905)
Capital reserve 314,315 304,664
Net Assets Attributable to Equity Shareholders 486,610 480,613
Net Asset Value per Ordinary Share* $23.81 $23.52
*Based on the Net Asset Value at the period end divided by the number of shares
in issue: 20,435,627 (31st October 2005 - 20,435,627)
INCOME STATEMENT
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31ST OCTOBER 2006
2006 2005
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
$'000 $'000 $'000 $'000 $'000 $'000
Income
(Losses)/gains on investments held at fair value - (118,388) (118,388) - 55,374 55,374
Exchange (loss)/gain (35) 1,219 1,184 (153) 4,204 4,051
Investment income 2,716 - 2,716 2,024 - 2,024
2,681 (117,169) (114,488) 1,871 59,578 61,449
Expenses
Investment management fee 3,960 - 3,960 3,334 - 3,334
Custodian fees 139 - 139 177 - 177
Administration fees 143 - 143 134 - 134
Registrar and transfer agent fees 10 - 10 28 - 28
Directors' fees and expenses 113 - 113 57 - 57
Interest expense and bank charges 394 - 394 210 - 210
Transaction costs - 475 475 - 545 545
Insurance fees 37 - 37 22 - 22
Audit fee 11 - 11 10 - 10
Printing and advertising fees 21 - 21 26 - 26
Legal and professional fees 18 - 18 15 - 15
Listing fees 23 - 23 23 - 23
Miscellaneous expenses 3 - 3 10 - 10
4,872 475 5,347 4,046 545 4,591
(Loss)/Profit before tax (2,191) (117,644) (119,835) (2,175) 59,033 56,858
Taxation (190) - (190) (142) - (142)
(Loss)/Profit for the period (2,381) (117,644) (120,025) (2,317) 59,033 56,716
(Deficit)/Return per ordinary share $(5.874) $2.775
STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31ST OCTOBER 2006
For the six months ended 31st October 2006
OrdinaryShare Share Revenue Capital
Capital Premium Reserve Reserve Total
$'000 $'000 $'000 $'000 $'000
Balance at 1st May 2006 204 192,650 (18,178) 431,959 606,635
Loss for the period - - (120,025) - (120,025)
Transfer from capital reserve - - 117,644 (117,644) -
Balance at 31st October 2006 204 192,650 (20,559) 314,315 486,610
For the six months ended 31st October 2005
OrdinaryShare Share Revenue Capital
Capital Premium Reserve Reserve Total
$'000 $'000 $'000 $'000 $'000
Balance at 1st May 2005 (Restated) 204 192,650 (14,588) 245,631 423,897
Profit for the period - - 56,716 - 56,716
Transfer to capital reserve - - (59,033) 59,033 -
Balance at 31st October 2005 204 192,650 (16,905) 304,664 480,613
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31ST OCTOBER 2006
2006 2005
$'000 $'000
Loss before tax (1,247) (1,046)
Investing Activities
Purchase of investments (103,174) (125,007)
Sale of investments 104,112 110,319
Net cash inflow/(outflow) from
investing activities 938 (14,688)
Net cash outflow before financing (309) (15,734)
Cash flows from financing activities
Interest paid (349) (220)
Net loans drawn-down - 12,916
Net cash (outflow)/inflow from financing activities (349) 12,696
Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents (658) (3,038)
Exchange movements (207) 4,051
Movement in cash and cash equivalents in the period (865) 1,013
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 2,550 2,431
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 1,685 3,444
Reconciliation of (loss)/profit for period to
net cash outflow from operating activities
Net (loss)/profit before taxation (119,835) 56,858
Loss/(gain) on investments held at fair value 118,388 (55,374)
Exchange gain (1,184) (4,051)
Interest expense 394 210
Decrease in debtors and accrued income 1,219 1,340
(Decrease)/increase in creditors (39) 113
Taxation (190) (142)
(1,247) (1,046)
ATLANTIS JAPAN GROWTH FUND LIMITED
INVESTMENT MANAGER'S REPORT
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31ST OCTOBER 2006
PERFORMANCE
The Company ran into difficult market conditions during the six months ended
31st October 2006. While the large cap dominated Tokyo Stock Exchange First
Section Index ('TOPIX') was down only 8.15% during the period, the indices for
small and medium cap stocks saw much larger declines, with the Tokyo Second
Market index falling 18.15%, the Nikkei OTC dropping 19.40%, and the Mothers
index down 31.55% (all expressed in US dollar terms). In comparison, the
Company's published Net Asset Value (the 'NAV') per share at the period-end was
$23.89, representing a decline of 20.02%. Company performance was hurt
especially by the pronounced weakness in the medium and small cap segments of
the market, where the portfolio remains overweight. The weakening of the Yen
also pulled down the value of the Company as it is denominated in US dollars.
Since inception in May 1996, the published NAV per share is up 140.8%, even
after the setback during the latest six month period. In contrast, over the same
timeframe, the TOPIX is down 14.6% while the Tokyo Second Market index is up
65.1% (all figures in US dollars).
At the end of October 2006, the published Net Asset Value of the Company was
$488,238,814 in US dollar terms or Y56,997 million. The Company has borrowings
of Y6.5 billion ($55.7 million), cash of Y170 million ($1.7 million) and is
about 11% leveraged on a net basis. The Investment Manager had no currency
hedges at the period end, meaning the Company's value in US dollar terms
will benefit from a stronger Japanese Yen and, conversely, will be hurt by a
weaker Yen. During the six month period under review, the Yen weakened by 2.2%
against the US dollar, moving from Y114.20 at the end of April 2006, to Y116.74
at the end of October 2006.
There are no outstanding warrants. The number of outstanding shares is unchanged
at 20,435,627.
MARKET OUTLOOK
After a sharp run-up in late 2005, the Japanese market hit a pocket of
turbulence in early 2006 as news broke about a major accounting scandal at
high-flying Internet business operator, Livedoor. This set off a prolonged
period of consolidation characterized by high market volatility, particularly
among smaller cap issues. Trading volume has remained relatively high, but the
overall mood in the market is still very cautious, with local investors showing
heightened sensitivity to bad news while largely ignoring good news. Due in part
to limited liquidity, small cap stocks have continued to under-perform despite
the favorable outlook for earnings and low valuations in many cases. For
instance, the Mothers index is down more than 50% from its yearly high.
On the economic front, we find the domestic economy showing somewhat mixed
signals. Exports and private capital investment are still relatively strong, but
consumer spending, which accounts for well over half of GDP, has been somewhat
slower than expected, though still in positive growth territory. Corporate
earnings have been running ahead of expectations and, thus, we continue to look
for growth of around 13-15% in the current fiscal year to March 2007, followed
by positive earnings growth again for the next fiscal year.
In the stock market itself, an examination of supply-demand dynamics shows banks
continuing to liquidate their cross-shareholdings during the period under
review, though at a slower pace than in previous years as their remaining
holdings have dwindled. Local pension funds also seem to have stayed on the sell
side, though they were much less aggressive sellers than in the past and will
hopefully become a neutral force in the market in the near future. In contrast,
corporations continued as steady net buyers; in addition to buying back their
own shares, corporate purchases were also reflected in M&A and MBOs, as more
corporations sought to extend alliances through cross-shareholdings to protect
themselves from hostile takeovers. Local investment trusts also remained steady
net buyers.
Local individual investors, who often account for as much as 40% of daily
trading volume, were mostly sellers during the six-month period under review.
This represents a turnabout from their previous stance, which put them on the
buy side many weeks late last year and earlier this year. Similarly, we find
overseas investors pulling back from aggressive buying in 2005 to a less
aggressive stance in 2006, including a pronounced bout of net selling in May and
June, as well as net selling in some recent weeks.
For our part, we see the underlying economic fundamentals in Japan as still
mostly favourable, though we are somewhat concerned about technical conditions
in the market, especially in recent months. Some local investors are already
worrying about domestic monetary policy even though interest rates are up only
slightly and remain at low levels amid modest inflation. Overall, we would
expect external factors to continue to hold sway over the Japanese market in the
near term, as investors remain sensitive to trends outside Japan, including the
world economy and China, US interest rates, commodity prices and major overseas
stock markets, particularly New York and London. In this regard, we note that
the recent weakness in the yen appears to have been a slight negative for
Japanese stocks.
That said, we think the downside risk for the overall market is limited
considering current valuation levels and the still-positive outlook for the
Japanese economy and corporate earnings. Going forward, we expect signs
confirming solid growth to ultimately bring about an improvement in market
sentiment and, along with this, higher stock prices. However, if earnings
disappoint or the economy proves weaker than expected, we could see further
pressure on stock prices.
OUR STRATEGY AND THE PORTFOLIO
As described above, the expansion in the Japanese economy appears to be on
course, with no real signs of overheating. As inflation remains subdued, we
would expect interest rates to rise only slowly, thus having little, if any,
impact on economic growth. Corporate earnings are also rising, and prospects
appear good for solid earnings growth again next fiscal year.
On the domestic political front, we are starting to hear talk about hiking the
consumption tax. Any hike before 2008 or 2009 is highly unlikely, in our view,
and we may not see any hike at all. Thus, we do not consider this something to
worry about at this time.
TOPIX stocks are currently trading at an average Price Earnings Ratio (PER) of
about 20x estimated earnings for the current year to March 2007, and Second
Section stocks are trading around 17x. Based on our outlook for continued
earnings growth next fiscal year, overall market valuations are even more
attractive as we look further ahead.
At the individual stock level, we are also finding many attractive issues, some
even trading at less than 10x projected earnings 2-3 years ahead. As always, we
continue to emphasize value and long-term earnings growth potential. In
particular, we like companies with solid top-line growth, rising profit margins,
positive free cash flow, improving balance sheets and solid prospects for
earnings growth over the medium to longer term.
At this time, we are generally finding the best value and growth among medium
and small cap stocks. Since many of the stocks in the portfolio are quite small,
we usually limit our investments in individual issues to less than 1% of total
portfolio value, and often limit our initial investment to 0.25% when we are
establishing a new position. Even in the case of our larger cap holdings we
usually limit our exposure to around 1% of portfolio value, with this
restriction serving as a measure of risk control.
While strictly limiting our exposure to individual stocks, we often invest in
more than one company in the same general business when the industry is
attractive. For instance, the Company has invested in a number of local discount
drug store chains, several different generic drug manufacturers and several
software companies. We also have exposure to several semiconductor test
equipment manufacturers, including probe card maker Micronics Japan, and several
manufacturers of quartz components, including Nihon Dempa. This strategy of
investing in multiple companies in the same general business area has worked
well for us in the past and will hopefully continue to provide superior returns
going forward.
As Japanese interest rates remain very low, we have leveraged the Company by
borrowing Y6.5 billion ($55.7 million). We have used part of these borrowings to
invest in high-yielding stocks that we also judge to be attractive based on
their fundamentals, including several Japanese REITs with above-average yields.
At this time, we have a good flow of new ideas and are uncovering a number of
attractive investment candidates with good long-term growth potential and
attractive valuations. As we have discussed in the past, one of the cornerstones
of our investment research process is our extensive company-visiting program.
Every year our team visits around 1,000 companies, including those already in
the portfolio, as well as new buy candidates. In addition to these face-to-face
visits, we also contact companies for periodic updates, ascertaining monthly
sales or order figures where such disclosures are available. In the case of the
many retail companies in the portfolio, we are particularly interested in
monthly sales trends at existing stores, new store openings and trends in
inventories. In addition to giving us valuable information on specific
companies, these contacts can also shed an early light on trends within an
entire sector or the larger economy.
At times such as these, we understand that there is a natural tendency for
investors to become impatient or anxious. We too would like to see all of our
stocks consistently moving higher. However, we know from long years of
experience that there are inevitable periods of little or no movement in the
market, as well as the unavoidable times when stock prices decline, even when
the economy and corporate earnings are growing. At this point in particular, we
remain encouraged by the fact that many stocks are now looking cheap and the
earnings outlook is still quite positive.
Going forward, we will continue to follow our time-tested strategy focused on
value and long-term growth. We plan to remain patient during this period of
market consolidation, positioning the portfolio for out-performance in the
longer term while avoiding the risk of chasing short-term market trends. We
would like to thank our fellow shareholders for their ongoing support,
especially during the last six months.
Atlantis Fund Management (Guernsey) Limited
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