Annual Financial Report
Annual Financial Report Announcement
Aurora Investment Trust plc
CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT
The Year's Returns: NAV: - 44.9% to
111.9p; Benchmark: - 36.0%
I am afraid the results for the last year make pretty grim reading,
with our net asset value having collapsed in the second half of our
year. At the half way stage - to 31st August 2008 - things didn't
look all that bad, our net asset value having declined 3.3%, a little
better than that of the market's fall of 4.8% (the FTSE All-share
Index). But it proved to be the eve of the storm because within
weeks of our half year end Lehman Brothers had gone bust and stock
markets around the world were in freefall. We were, I am afraid,
poorly positioned for the events that followed - overloaded with
holdings in the mining and in the financial sectors. As a
consequence our net asset value declined by 43.0% in the second half
of our year, a lot worse than the market which fell by 32.7%.
Our portfolio was not without one or two successes but with one
exception, our holding in BTG Group, they made little difference; the
declines in some of our holdings in mining and financial stocks were
rather large - to put it mildly. The top five contributors and the
top five detractors to the returns of the portfolio were as follows:
+-----------------------------------------------------------------+
| | Increase in value | Contribution to NAV |
| Top 5 Contributors | | |
|-----------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 1. BTG | + £706,000 | +5.5p |
|-----------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 2. Orca Interactive | + £169,000 | + 1.3p |
|-----------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 3. Drax Group | + £142,000 | + 1.1p |
|-----------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 4. Vendanta Resources | + £28,000 | + 0.2p |
|-----------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 5. Emblaze Systems | + £23,000 | + 0.2p |
|-----------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| TOP 5 CONTRIBUTORS | + £1,068,000 | + 8.2p |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------+
.
+------------------------------------------------------------------+
| | Decrease in value | Detraction from NAV |
| Top 5 Detractors | | |
|------------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 1. Xstrata | - £1,856,000 | - 11.3p |
|------------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 2. Rio Tinto Zinc | - £1,418,000 | - 10.8p |
|------------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 3. Antofagasta | - £1,056,000 | - 10.3p |
|------------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 4. Charlemagne Capital | - £ 847,000 | - 8.8p |
|------------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 5. GCM Resources | - £ 793,000 | - 6.8p |
|------------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| TOP 5 DETRACTORS | - £6,527,000 | - 46.1p |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+
We went through much of the year with little or no borrowings, having just
£675,000 at the end of the year but what we had will have made matters a little
bit worse; however we bought back 650,000 shares which we estimate will have
added about 1p to the net asset value.
Long Term NAV Returns: 5 Years: -
40.7%; Benchmark: - 14.0%
Since
launch: + 14.4%; Benchmark: - 10.5%
Each year I emphasise that our stated objective for shareholders is to achieve
capital growth over the long-term. We regard five years as the appropriate
time over which to judge the long-term returns of the Company. A year like the
last one is likely scupper any long term record and indeed, as the number above
show, it has done so to our five year returns. That the stock market also lost
money is of little comfort - particularly as we did a lot worse. The first
half of our life as an investment trust company produced quite excellent
returns as the themes that we backed - based on a high growth, low inflationary
global economy - produced a number of portfolio winners for us, notably in
companies involved in house building, mining and in Ireland. However we were
slow to recognise that things were changing and, as a consequence, we
overstayed our welcome; so we ended up giving away much of the gains we had
made. We have also, as I have mentioned in previous statements, lost rather a
lot in smaller concept stocks. As a consequence of all of this and of the
financial crisis that we find ourselves embroiled in, we have given a lot of
thought about future investment themes - about which I comment below.
For the record the net asset value return since launch is 14.4%, not a great
return over 12 years but rather better than the stock market itself, which
declined by 10.5%.
Shareholders' Total Returns: Over one year: -
92.5p or - 50.9%
Over five years: - 70.4p or - 40.8%
Since launch: +20.6p or +
20.6%
The share price suffered particularly badly last year because the discount
widened on the back of the decline in the net asset value. We are conscious
that it is the share price which determines the value of shareholders'
investment and are concerned when the discount gets too large. At 24.9%, which
is where it ended the year, it was far too large. As I mentioned above, we
have bought back some shares but we are limited in the amount that we can buy
back and for the moment we are not buying any more, although the position is
kept under close review. In any event all shares bought back reduce the
liquidity of our shares in the market place, something we give consideration to
in determining whether or not to buy back shares. The best way to reduce the
discount is to perform well - thereby encouraging investors to buy shares and
become investors. That is what we are giving particular attention to.
+-------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Analysis of | One year | Five years | Since Launch |
| shareholders' | | | |
| return | | | |
|----------------+----------------+---------------+-----------------|
| Change in NAV | - | -44.9% | - | - | + | + 14.4% |
| p sh. | 91.1p | | 76.6p | 40.7% | 14.1p | |
|----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+---------|
| Change in | - | | - | | - | |
| discount | 6.4p | | 11.9p | | 30.1p | |
|----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+---------|
| | | | | | | |
|----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+---------|
| Change in | - | -53.7% | - | - | - | -16.0% |
| share price | 97.5p | | 88.5p | 51.3% | 16.0p | |
|----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+---------|
| Dividends | + | | + | | + | |
| | 5.0p | | 18.1p | | 36.6p | |
|----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+---------|
| | | | | | | |
|----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+---------|
| Total | - | -50.9% | - | - | + | + 20.6% |
| Shareholders' | 92.5p | | 70.4p | 40.8% | 20.6p | |
| Return* | | | | | | |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------+
*NB dividends not reinvested
Annual General Meeting: at 12 pm on 15th July, 2009
at 145-157 St John St., London, EC1
The Dividend: In an otherwise dismal year, the one piece of cheer
has been the income account where there has been a quite dramatic
improvement in the net income we have earned. There were a number of
contributory factors to the increase in the net income (the "Revenue"
columns in the Consolidated Income Statement), which rose from
£62,000 to £879,000 - including profitable trading in our trading
subsidiary, lower costs and the one-off rebate of VAT, which was paid
in the past but which has now been recovered from HMRC.
As a consequence of this we are recommending the payment of a total
of 5.0p per share, an increase of 58.7% over last year's payment of
3.15p per share. We like, if we can, to keep the dividend growing
(in line with inflation if possible), but the 2007/8 net income was
abnormally high so that a dividend of 5.0p per share will not be
earned or paid for 2008/9.
The Board of Directors: Last September Michael Heathcoat Amory
retired from the Board and David Hunter will not be standing for
re-election at the forth coming annual general meeting. Both of them
were founder directors of the Company in 1997. Being a director of
any public company has become more and more of a chore over these
last 12 years, as the focus of governance has changed from directing
management in the interest of shareholders to observing best practice
process (business equivalent of political correctness) and complying
with the tsunami of rules, regulations and standards that have been
heaped upon us. They have both made a huge contribution to the
workings of the board in difficult times and their experience and
wisdom has been invaluable. On behalf of all of us shareholders I
would like to thank them. Michael and David - thank you very much
indeed. As a consequence of losing them as directors, the Board is
engaged in looking for a new director; we would expect to make an
appointment during the course of the current year.
The Annual General Meeting: I do urge as many shareholders as
possible to join us for the Annual General Meeting. It will be held
at 12pm at Cavendish Administration's offices, 145-157 St John
Street, London (Farringdon tube station). It is the occasion when
shareholders can meet all of the directors and ask questions or make
comments or suggestions which we would welcome and which we feel that
all shareholders should have the benefit of hearing. Please come and
join us.
Current Outlook and Prospects:
We have had five bad years; furthermore we are now in the middle of a
financial crisis much more serious than almost anyone involved in the
financial business today has ever experienced. Our future as an
investment trust has therefore been a matter of considerable concern
to you board of directors. In September 2008, we had a special away
day board meeting devoted entirely to the investment environment in
which we find ourselves. The purpose of the meeting was to consider
our investment strategy in the light of the conditions that we found
ourselves in.
So much has been said and written about the financial crisis and its
consequences that I don't propose to agonise over the issues here.
Suffice it to say that we are of the view that the virtual collapse
of the banking system will have brought about a new order in the
global economy, one that is quite different to that of the past
quarter of a century. The global economy had grown at a rather
spectacular rate: ever increasing consumer and government spending
was financed by ever increasing quantities of debt but the inflation,
which such debt financed demand would normally induce, never emerged
because of the supply of cheap goods manufactured in countries with
emerging economies (notably China) at very low cost. However the
structure of global trade was unbalanced and depended on the
producers keeping their currencies competitive by, in turn, keeping
their export earnings invested in dollars, pounds, euros. Not only
did consumers and governments become over borrowed but so did the
banks which made the loans. This state of affairs has broken down
and we are now faced with a number of years of, if we are lucky, sub
par global economic growth. Restabilising the global economy is
going to take some time; some areas will recover much more quickly
than others (almost certainly those emerging market economies).
In May 2009 the Board of Directors met to consider the
appropriateness of our investment policy. We considered a number of
propositions, including whether, in the current circumstances, we
could expect to make money for shareholders over the next five
years. While inevitably there were different views around the
boardroom table in relation to the seriousness of the situation, we
concluded that - providing we understood the nature of this new
economic order - there would be good opportunities to make profitable
investments. Our view is that for the time being there will be a
drawn out recession during which there will be little or no
inflation; it will be a difficult time for corporate profits.
However the quite extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus being
imposed will revive economies (some more than others) but at the cost
of inflation - possibly quite considerable inflation. Governments
will find themselves torn between containing inflation and dealing
with high unemployment. Inflation devalues the debts that
governments will have incurred and is the easy politically option.
It is therefore the likely course of events - even if later rather
than sooner.
In these circumstances some thoughts sprang to mind:
* It is possible that the pound will decline further (maybe
- the US is in just as big an economic pickle); exposure to
overseas, particularly to emerging market economies, should prove
profitable from an investment and from a currency point of view.
* The demographics of the UK (and of Europe) are such that
there is a fast growing aging population, which typically needs,
amongst other things, income from savings, from pensions, insurance
policies and investments. And yet interest rates have been cut to
almost nothing, dividends are being cut and, for some, taxes have
risen; there will be, indeed there is already is, a shortage of
income investing opportunities. Identifying reliable sources of
income, particularly growing income, should produce good capital
profits.
* Given that, for the time being, the indebtedness of low
savings economies - most particularly the UK - will continue to
rise, stock markets are likely to remain very volatile with some
periods of relief rallies and with other periods of pessimistic
declines. Such volatility creates investment opportunities, even
if they tend to be of short duration. This is particularly
attractive to us with our goal of progressively raising our
dividend.
* There will remain certain themes that will continue to
make progress; they include the infrastructure, the environment,
renewable energy, healthcare, electronics technology etc. It will
be important to identify those that prove profitable because a
feature of higher levels of inflation is profitless prosperity.
Inflation does not create real wealth, only the illusion of it.
So while we are not particularly enthusiastic about the prospects for
our economy and while we are a lot less enthusiastic about our
government (which has proven to be self-serving, dishonest and
thoroughly incompetent), we do believe that there will be good
opportunities to make money, particularly so given the huge decline
in stock markets that has already taken place. We do need to be
vigilant but not naïve about what lies ahead of us. I am, however,
pleased that the portfolio has performed strongly in the current year
to date.
Alex Hammond-Chambers
Chairman
5 June 2009
MANAGER'S REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
If the Prime Minister does not have the courage or manners to
apologise to the electorate for his mistakes of having mismanaged the
economy, for his hollow and failed promises to abolish the
boom-and-bust cycles, and for having stripped the Bank of England of
its powers to regulate banks, then it makes me all the more resolute.
I wish to put up my hand to say sorry to our shareholders for my many
and varied mistakes during the last year. Sadly, I possessed neither
the vision and foresight of Prof Nouriel Roubini nor the brainpower
and reactions of Miss Gael Trimble (the outstanding points winner of
University Challenge). I am not alone, but rather unfortunate to
have had a year end which coincided with what appears to date to have
been the bottom of the market.
The last year was an exceptional one, (I hope a once in a lifetime
experience) notable both for fear and greed. Fear of plunging stock
and commodity prices, and greed, as manifested through excessive
bonuses, pension pots, Ponzi schemes, and in one extraordinary case
(Anglo Irish Bank) for massive directors' loans. The acquisition by
Lloyds Bank of HBOS, following a mere brief discussion at a cocktail
party, is also a notable example. How apposite is Warren Buffet's
remark about seeing the naked swimmers when the tide goes out.
The period witnessed previously unimaginable events such as not only
the collapse of two Scottish banks and one building society, but also
Lehman Brothers and even AIG, the world's largest insurer, while many
other financial institutions are teetering on the brink of full
public ownership. In addition, the price of many hard commodities
collapsed below the marginal cost of production, oil fell by more
than $100 per barrel, and the Baltic dry cargo index collapsed from
11,793 to 663 in the space of five months. Furthermore, UK interest
rates have been rapidly reduced and currently stand at the lowest
level since the foundation of the Bank of England in 1694. It was
indeed the year when 'Christmas week' became 'Christmas month' and
the more frequent use of the abbreviation R and D related to
recession and /or depression rather than research and development.
Unemployment continues to soar. It was certainly not a successful
year for the Governor of the Bank of England, whose stated ambition
is to make economic events appear boring!
In the UK stock-market there has been an unprecedented level of
volatility and overall a massive flight to size and quality companies
of a defensive nature away from their smaller brethren; all thoughts
of future growth prospects were discarded. In summary, it was almost
impossible to make money, other than for very short term periods, by
owning equities (even including the dullest of utilities) or
corporate bonds; only gold and government bonds proved profitable
holdings. Meanwhile, the return on cash has almost reached zero.
Twelve months ago, on account of its huge relevance to the portfolio,
my colleague Stephen and I paid a three day visit to Dublin, to gain
first hand experience of the state and prospects for the Irish
economy. Since then, the banking sector has imploded, partly as a
result of external events, but also on account of internal
mismanagement or worse. The 'final straw' for Anglo Irish Bank was
the disclosure of the huge loans to several of the directors and the
massaging of the level of deposits at the company's year end.
Fortunately, we reduced our exposure to zero before the full horrors
unfolded. It will be, in my opinion, several years before the Celtic
tiger roars once more.
A year ago the portfolio also had a very overweight position in the
mining sector. I was a firm believer in the theory of the commodity
'super- cycle' and the prospect that decoupling would take place
between the rate of growth in the western economies and those
prevalent amongst the emerging nations who would remain unscathed by
the credit crunch due to their high savings ratios. In the event,
what appeared to be a slow-down in western economies, in response to
the credit crunch, became a much more dramatic recession. More-over
it occurred at the same time as the Chinese government was cooling
the domestic economy by means of higher interest rates after a major
housing boom.
The consequence was that companies everywhere 'drew in their horns'
and precipitated a synchronised global contraction in demand for
commodities at a hitherto unprecedented rate. Although still left
with large exposure, on the grounds that the Chinese and Indian
economies will continue to expand, despite the current turmoil, some
reductions to the holdings were made in the autumn. The holding in
Rio Tinto was completely disposed of before the take-over attempt by
BHP Billiton was terminated.
I remain, however, strongly of the opinion that the commodity
super-cycle is temporarily being interrupted; it has not been
terminated. The Chinese, in particular, are known to be increasing
their stockpiles of commodities in huge quantities for future use on
their proposed massive infrastructure projects in the certain
knowledge that prices will rise rapidly when the global economy
recovers. Furthermore they now regard it as a more sensible store of
value than to purchase yet more US Treasury bonds.
At a time of recession it seems sensible to reduce exposure to
'cyclicals' and replace them with holdings in sectors which are not
economically sensitive, such as tobacco and pharmaceuticals.
Unfortunately, however, tobacco companies have never before been so
highly rated as they are currently. Also, the only two major UK
listed pharmaceutical companies are desperately short of exciting new
products to promote at a time when many old ones are losing their
patent protection.
BTG, however, currently the largest holding in the portfolio, is a
company which fills me with excitement about its future prospects,
particularly following its successful takeover of Protherics and
entry into the FTSE 250 index. It now not only has a huge and
growing cash pile, a US $ based revenue stream from an excellent
portfolio of existing products, but no less than four, possibly even
more, potential 'blockbusters' in 'phase three' development in
exciting areas such as leukaemia, multiple sclerosis, diabetes,
poison serums, prostate cancer and, hopefully also, a revolutionary
treatment for varicose veins later this year. Since the year end
Genzyme has announced that it has agreed to pay up to US $1bn to
Bayer for the right to market Campath, a treatment for multiple
sclerosis on which BTG will earn huge annual royalties. Thus BTG
certainly would not appear to be lacking growth potential at a time
of likely prolonged recessionary conditions and thus is well
positioned for a possible major re-rating.
The portfolio's second largest holding at the year end was Scottish
and Southern Electricity, another long- standing favourite, which has
proved more reliable during the period than other Scottish exposure!
Its defensive characteristics and high dividend yield have, alongside
a new purchase of United Utilities, stood the portfolio in good stead
in these turbulent times. On a similar theme, a holding was
re-established in Rolls-Royce and a new position taken in British
Aerospace - both beneficiaries of a stronger US $, together with the
excellent visibility of defence related earnings.
Another new theme this year has been to gain exposure to the
insurance sector where rates have hardened (at a time when pricing
power is a scarce feature) following the demise of AIG - hence the
purchase of Aviva and Prudential, both of which produce good
dividends at a time when dividends from the banking sector are almost
as rare as the elusive salmon which I try to catch on holiday.
Placing that remark in context I feel sure that shareholders will be
pleased to learn that not only is the revenue account extremely well
placed both for last year - hence the third special dividend - as
well as for the current one but I also caught (and released) my
largest salmon (c.25lbs) to date in July.
Venture Production is a scarcely known mid cap oil company which
specialises in buying good prospective acreages in the North Sea
which are too small for the oil majors to develop themselves - in
other words it feeds off the crumbs which fall from the rich man's
table. The company is well financed and has been notably successful
with the drill-bit in extracting both oil and more so gas. To date
the company has not yet achieved the rating it deserves, possibly on
account of past delays in meeting its targets. It has, however, an
unstable shareholder base, which may result in an unwanted take-over
attempt in the near future by possibly either Centrica, which since
the year end has declared a large holding, or another utility.
Several companies have not only expressed an interest in increasing
their exposure to natural gas but also recently raised new money for
possibly this purpose.
Two oil majors, namely BP and BG, continue to feature in the
portfolio's top ten holdings for good reasons. In the case of the
former, it is on account of a high and, in Sterling terms, growing
dividend stream, which management have recently indicated will be
maintained, even if not covered by operational cash flow. BG
continues to demonstrate its ability to grow its profits and reserves
both organically and by acquisition.
The portion of the portfolio in small future growth companies, with
the exception of BTG and Emblaze, has performed badly. As stated
earlier, investors have lost all their appetite for risk and,
accordingly, are currently ignoring future growth prospects.
Valuations are derisory and yet may possibly be seen before too long
to offer the opportunity of a lifetime. The change in the recent
Budget which increased the top rate of income tax to 50% whilst
leaving unchanged the 18% rate of capital gains tax is likely to
stimulate investors to pay greater attention to growth than
previously.
Two recent new small additions to the portfolio, both with attractive
safe yields, are Anglo Pacific and Asian Citrus. Whereas the former
earns a royalty from its extensive mining interests, mainly in
Australia and Canada, the latter is the operator of three large
orange groves in China. Its already attractive yield should be
boosted further by an exciting combination of - increased production
as the trees mature, and higher prices from a growing proportion of
sales to supermarkets rather than local wholesalers. More-over it is
also a pure 'play' on the Chinese currency, which has appreciated by
no less than 30 % against sterling during the past year, with the
high probability of further gains, particularly if Gordon Brown
continues to work his magic. In addition should the current swine
fever epidemic reach China then the demand for vitamin c would likely
surge.
Prospects
What started as a financial problem in the US housing market (on
account of President Clinton's reforms which forbade discrimination
against the underprivileged sections of society) rapidly developed
into a full blown economic crisis on a global scale. The IMF is
currently forecasting the first global contraction since the Second
World War. Manufacturing output is spiralling downwards, while
unemployment continues to soar at an unprecedented rate. Reported
macro economic data is set to deteriorate for some time to come.
Meanwhile, interest rates around the world have been slashed and many
of the major nations have produced economic packages to support key
sectors. Quantitative easing is a phrase of which we will all soon
have to learn the meaning!
Whereas recent moves, both in the UK and USA, to separate and insure
toxic loans will assist stabilisation and recovery in the banking
system, the damage to the real economy continues apace and is
expected to do so for at least another six to nine months.
Fortunately, however, stock-markets are prone to anticipating
recovery by two/three quarters. It would therefore be extraordinary
not to see some upward momentum developing towards the end of the
calendar year, particularly as money market funds currently represent
a huge proportion of the capitalisation of Wall Street.
The Chinese and Indian economies are expected to continue to grow,
albeit not quite at the rapid pace of last year; recent evidence of
this has been manifested through the rapid growth in bank lending,
the surge above 50 in the purchasing manager's index but also the
rapid rise in certain commodity prices as well as the strong recovery
in the Baltic Dry cargo index.
The USA, where the crisis started, is probably, if history is to be
repeated, the first Western economy which will witness the first
green shoots of recovery, on account of the nation's resilient
nature. It is worth noting that the US economy is benefiting from the
fall in the oil price to an extent many times greater this year than
from President Obama's not inconsiderable reflation package. It may
well be followed in turn by the UK, where the government has been
relatively pro-active in recent months. Meanwhile, Germany, whose
government officials have, by contrast, been slow to recognise the
problem, will remain, like neighbouring Austria and some Eastern
European countries, mired in recession for some time to come.
In passing, how ironic it seems to me that the USA and Germany, which
suffered from deflation and hyper-inflation respectively during the
inter-war years, should now, directly as a result of their deep
seated fear of a repetition of the past, be soon set to enjoy rapid
inflation and deflation respectively.
At a time of recession there will always be major opportunities in
the stock-market. Whereas many companies in any sector will wither
and die their stronger brethren will survive and prosper by gaining
market share. More-over spending patterns will change- premium brands
may suffer as 'trading down' occurs. Government edicts may also
compel companies to incur expenditure, whether on the environment,
health and safety or compliance.
In this latter respect, one of my long time favourite companies,
Gresham Computing, should certainly be a beneficiary of the recently
announced requirement by the FSA for the banking sector to invest
£1bn on software, to enable it to know its true positions on a real
time basis. Furthermore it has recently announced that it has signed
a massive software contract to enhance the systems at one of the
world's largest international banks. Moreover the contract is on a
revenue sharing (of the savings) basis.
In the light of the prevailing challenging circumstances, my
preferred strategy is to remain invested in the companies with the
best prospects for growth - stronger companies with superior
management skills and sound balance sheets. History has proved many
times over that these will prosper at the expense of others. I will
also be adding to the fixed interest element, in view of the low cost
of borrowing (currently 1.5% p.a.) and the current mouth-watering
high yields, as a method of boosting the income generated, without
having to sacrifice the huge long-term growth potential of the
smaller companies in the portfolio.
At a time when the global economy is set at best to grow very slowly,
those companies, which manage to grow their profits and dividends at
a superior pace will, on account of their rarity, be re-rated. I will
not have been the only investment manager in recent months to have
learned for oneself that the saying 'the darkest hour is just before
dawn' is true.
I do now feel confident that 'dawn' is fast approaching for several
companies in the portfolio. For example, amongst others, Emblaze is
set for the global launch of its 'best of breed' telephone, which is
claimed by the company to be far superior to the Apple Iphone. The
Emoze method of providing emails for free, to those one billion
handset users currently unwilling to pay BlackBerry service charges,
may also prove a winner for that company, having trounced BlackBerry
in two recent competitions. BTG is likely, in the near future, to be
making several additional important announcements on a variety of its
new products. Gresham Computing will benefit hugely from the
requirement by the FSA for the banking sector to know its true
positions in 'real time'. Furthermore, the consent to mine its
massive coal reserves will most probably be awarded to Global Coal in
the very near future, following the landslide victory by the
Bangladeshi opposition party in the recent elections.
Accordingly, unless there are further unscheduled delays, which have
dogged these companies and tried the patience of myself, your
directors and loyal shareholders for too long already, I feel
confident that the outlook for this growth oriented trust appears set
to improve - it is certainly pregnant with potential!
I also wish to make one final if fairly simple but important
observation. Shareholders will know that, to date, I have long since
been an advocate of falling inflation rates; these are only too
apparent today. I must confess, however, that I now have a very
different vision of the future. Resulting from all the excessive
government expenditure, at previously inconceivable levels, I share
the Sage of Omaha's fear that within a few years, but I cannot
predict exactly when, the rate of inflation is set to soar, once
wages have stopped falling and the spare industrial capacity is being
utilised once more . Accordingly, I will be anticipating that new
trend through the purchase of inflation hedges, such as gold and
asset based companies particularly mining stocks, on account of their
high exposure to the Chinese economy.
Meanwhile, the Chinese have recently celebrated the start of the
'Year of the Ox'; an event which surely provides superstitious
investors with a conundrum. Will it prove a female of the species,
renowned for its characteristics of strength and thick skin (features
vital for investors in recessionary conditions) or is it a male, and
therefore the year of the bull?
M. J. Barstow
5 June 2009
STATEMENT OF DIRECTORS' RESPONSIBILITIES FOR THE ANNUAL REPORT
The directors are responsible for preparing the Annual Report and the
financial statements in accordance with applicable law and
regulations.
Company law in the United Kingdom requires the directors to prepare
financial statements for each financial year which give a true and
fair view of the state of affairs of the Company and of the profit or
loss of the Company for that period. The directors are required to
prepare financial statements for the Group in accordance with
International Financial Reporting Standards as adopted by the
European Union (IFRS) and have also elected to prepare financial
statements for the Company on the same basis. The financial
statements are prepared in accordance with the Companies Act 1985,
IFRS and, in the case of the Group, Article 4 of the EU's IAS
Regulation.
In preparing these financial statements, the directors are required
to:
* select suitable accounting policies and then apply them
consistently;
* make judgements and estimates which are reasonable and
prudent;
* follow applicable International accounting standards as
adopted by the European Union; and
* prepare the financial statements on the going concern
basis, unless it is inappropriate to assume the Company will
continue.
The directors are responsible for ensuring that proper accounting
records are kept which disclose with reasonable accuracy at any time
the financial position of the Company and enable them to ensure that
the financial statements comply with the Companies Act 1985. They
are also responsible for safeguarding the assets of the Company and
hence for taking reasonable steps for the prevention and detection of
fraud and other irregularities.
Under applicable law and regulations, the directors are also
responsible for preparing a Directors' Report, Directors'
remuneration Report and Corporate Governance Statement that comply
with that law and those regulations. The directors are responsible
for the maintenance and integrity of the corporate and financial
information included on the website used by the Company.
Legislation in the United Kingdom governing the preparation and
dissemination of financial statements may differ from legislation in
other jurisdictions.
Statement under the Disclosure & Transparency Rules 4.1.12
The Directors each confirm to the best of their knowledge that:
a) the accounts, prepared in accordance with applicable accounting
standards, give a true and fair view of the assets, liabilities,
financial position and profit or loss of the Company; and
b) this Annual Report includes a fair review of the development and
performance of the business and the position of the Company,
together with a description of the principal risks and uncertainties
that it faces.
For and on behalf of the Board
Alex Hammond-Chambers
Chairman
5 June 2009
RISK ANALYSIS
The Board considers that the principal risks faced by the
shareholders of the Company fall into two categories:
External Risks
Poor performance in the UK and/or world economies; poor corporate
profits and dividends.
Poor stock market performance caused by market-specific factors, such
as rising interest rates, the unwinding of "bubbles" or disinvestment
by institutions, superimposed on general economic factors, or caused
by shocks, wars, disease etc. The Board does not consider, however,
that short-term volatility represents a risk for the long-term
shareholder that the Company seeks to avoid, since it regards
long-term performance to be of primary importance.
Internal Risks
Poor asset management, which may include poor stock selection,
excessive concentration of the portfolio, mistakes regarding currency
movements, speculation in shares of companies without sound or
established businesses and speculation in derivatives.
Poor control of borrowing, including borrowing at excessive rates of
interest relative to likely returns and borrowing excessive amounts
leading to the breach of covenants and possible enforced sales of
assets at disadvantageous prices.
Poor governance, compliance or administration, including particularly
the risk of loss of S842 status.
All these and other risks can result in shareholders not making
acceptable returns from their investment in the Company.
CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT
FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2009
Year ended 29 February 2008
Year ended 28 February 2009
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Gains on - (12,643) (12,643) - (5,860) (5,860)
investments
designated at
fair value
through profit
or loss
Exchange - (8) (8) - (177) (177)
differences on
overdraft
Realised 129 - 129 (353) - (353)
gains/(losses)
of trading
subsidiary at
fair value
through profit
or loss
Investment 876 - 876 1,111 - 1,111
income
Interest on VAT 49 - 49 - - -
recovered
Total income 1,054 (12,651) (11,596) 758 (6,037) (5,279)
Investment (80) (80) (160) (169) (169) (338)
management fees
Recovery of VAT 124 243 367 - - -
on management
fees
Other expenses (217) - (217) (282) - (282)
Loss before 881 (12,488) (11,607) 307 (6,206) (5,899)
finance costs
and tax
Finance costs (14) (14) (28) (236) (236) (472)
Loss before tax 867 (12,502) (11,635) 71 (6,442) (6,371)
Tax 12 - 12 (9) - (9)
Loss for the 879 (12,502) (11,623) 62 (6,442) (6,380)
year
Earnings per 6.76 (96.20p) (89.44p) 0.42 (43.83p) (43.41p)
share - basic
and diluted
The total column of this statement represents the Group's Income
Statement, prepared under IFRS. The revenue and capital columns,
including the revenue and capital earnings per share data, are
supplementary information prepared under guidance published by the
AIC.
All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from
continuing operations. No operations were acquired or discontinued
during the period. All revenue is attributable to the equity holders
of the parent company. There are no minority interests.
The Board recommends a final dividend of 3.25p per share and a
special dividend of 1.75p per share
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET
AT 28 FEBRUARY 2009
2009 2008
£'000 £'000
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
Investments designated at fair value through 14,242 28,527
profit or loss
CURRENT ASSETS
Sales for future settlement 91 294
Other receivables 95 101
Taxation recoverable - 14
Cash and cash equivalents 908 322
1,094 731
TOTAL ASSETS 15,336 29,258
CURRENT LIABILITIES:
Purchases for future settlement 123 447
Other payables 50 126
Bank overdraft 675 1,067
848 1,640
TOTAL ASSETS LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES 14,488 27,618
EQUITY
Called up share capital 3,598 3,777
Capital redemption reserve 179 -
Share premium account 10,997 10,997
Realised capital reserve 11,382 15,067
Unrealised capital reserve (11,839) (1,923)
Revenue reserve 171 (300)
TOTAL EQUITY 14,488 27,618
Net assets per ordinary share 111.86p 203.04p
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY
FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2009
2009
Share Capital Share Realised Unrealised Revenue Total
capital redemption premium capital capital reserve
reserve account reserve reserve
£,000 £'000 £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000
Opening 3,777 - 10,997 15,067 (1,923) (300) 27,618
equity
Profit/(loss) - - - (2,586) (9,916) 879 (11,623)
for the year
Dividends - - - - - (408) (408)
paid
Purchase of (179) 179 - (1,099) - - (1,099)
own shares
Closing 3,598 179 10,997 11,382 (11,839) 171 14,488
equity
2008
Share Share Realised Unrealised Revenue Total
capital premium capital capital reserve
account reserve reserve
£,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000
Opening equity 3,777 10,997 14,886 7,539 98 37,297
Profit/(loss) for - - 3,020 (9,462) 62 (6,380)
the year
Dividends paid - - - - (460) (460)
Purchase of own - - (2,839) - - (2,839)
shares
Closing equity 3,777 10,997 15,067 (1,923) (300) 27,618
CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOW STATEMENT
FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2009
2009 2008
£'000 £'000
NET CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Cash inflow from investment income and interest 927 1,053
Cash inflow/(outflow) from held for trading 41 (353)
current asset investments
Cash outflow from management expenses (403) (621)
Cash inflow from reclaim of VAT expense 367 -
Payments to acquire non-current asset investments (13,813) (6,027)
Receipts on disposal of non-current asset 15,422 16,536
investments
Tax recovered 26 18
NET CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES 2,567 10,606
CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Purchase of own shares (1,099) (2,839)
Dividends paid (408) (460)
Decrease in bank borrowings (392) (6,673)
Interest paid (74) (472)
NET CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES (1,973) (10,444)
INCREASE IN CASH 594 162
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year 322 337
Increase in cash 594 162
Currency translation difference (8) (177)
Cash and cash equivalents at end of year 908 322
NOTES
1. BASIS OF ACCOUNTING
The financial statements of the Company and the Group have been
prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting
Standards (IFRS), which comprise standards and interpretations
approved by the IASB and International Accounting Standards and
Standing Interpretations Committee interpretations approved by the
IASC that remain in effect, and to the extent that they have been
adopted by the European Union.
Under IFRS, the Statement of Recommended Practice (SORP) issued by
the Association of Investment Companies has no formal status, but the
Group has taken the guidance of the SORP into account to the extent
that is appropriate and compatible with IFRS.
The accounting policies are unchanged from those used in the last
annual financial statements except where otherwise stated.
2. INCOME 2009 2008
Income from investments: £'000 £'000
Franked dividends from listed or quoted investments 742 959
Unfranked income from overseas dividends 47 93
Income from listed fixed interest securities 60 34
849 1,086
Other income:
Bank interest receivable 27 25
876 1,111
Interest on VAT reclaim 49 -
925 1,111
3. INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FEES AND OTHER 2009 2008
EXPENSES
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Investment management fees
80 80 160 169 169 338
- monthly - - - - - -
- performance
80 80 160 169 169 338
Administration fees 31 - 31 60 - 60
Custodian's fees 14 - 14 14 - 14
Registrar's fees 7 - 7 11 - 11
Directors' fees 96 - 96 76 - 76
Consultancy payment to broker 19 - 19 59 - 59
Auditors' fees - audit of the 24 - 24 18 - 18
Company
and of the consolidated
financial
statements
Tax advice (8) - (8) 5 - 5
Miscellaneous expenses 34 - 34 39 - 39
Total other expenses 217 - 217 282 - 282
4. ORDINARY DIVIDENDS
2009 2008
£'000 £'000
Dividends reflected in the financial
statements:
Final dividend paid for the year 2008 at 3.15p (2007:
3.10p) 408 460
Dividends not reflected in the financial statements:
Proposed final dividend for the year 2009 at 3.25p
(2008: 3.15p) and special dividend at 1.75p (2008:
Nil) 648 408
If approved by the Annual General meeting, the final and special
dividends will be paid on 23 July 2009 to shareholders on the
register at the close of business on 19 June 2009.
5. EARNINGS PER SHARE
Earnings per share are based on the loss of £11,622,457 (2008:
£6,380,123) attributable to the weighted average of 12,995,045
(2008: 14,697,174) ordinary shares of 25p in issue during the year,
excluding shares held in Treasury.
Supplementary information is provided as follows: revenue earnings
per share are based on the revenue profit of £879,243 (2008:
£61,808); capital earnings per share are based on the net capital
losses of £12,501,700 (2008: £6,441,931), attributable to 12,995,045
(2008: 14,697,174) ordinary shares of 25p.
6. RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS
Mr Barstow is a director both of the Company and of the Manager.
Fees payable to the Manager are detailed in note 3 above. Other
payables include accruals of a monthly management fee of £8,978
(2008: £17,688) and an administration fee of £1,721 (2008: £3,464).
No performance fee was accrued (2008: £Nil). All figures include
VAT.
7. FINANCIAL INFORMATION
The financial information for 2009 is derived from the statutory
accounts for 2009, which will be delivered to the registrar of
companies following the company's Annual General Meeting. The
statutory accounts for 2008 have been delivered to the registrar of
companies. The auditors have reported on the 2008 and 2009 accounts;
their reports were unqualified and did not include a statement under
Section 237(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985.
The Annual Report for the year ended 28 February 2009 was approved on
5 June 2009. It will be posted to shareholders and will be made
available on the Manager's website.
This announcement contains regulated information under the Disclosure
Rules and Transparency Rules of the FSA.
The Annual General Meeting will be held on 15 July 2009 at 12.00 noon
at 145-157 St. John Street, London, EC1V 4RU.
5 June 2009
Secretary and registered office:
Cavendish Administration Limited
145-157 St John Street
London
EC1V 4RU
Tel: 020 7490 4355
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