Final Results
Aurora Investment Trust plc
PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT OF RESULTS
For the year ended 28 February 2005
CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT
The Year's Results:
NAV: +23.4% to 229.1p;
Benchmark: +11.2%
I am pleased to be able to report to shareholders an excellent result
for the year ended 28 February 2005. The net asset value rose from
185.6p to 229.1p per share, an increase of 23.4%. Given that our
stated goal for shareholders is the growth of capital, it is a
thoroughly acceptable result and our thanks and congratulations go to
James Barstow and his colleagues for it. Making money for
shareholders has got to be the purpose of our endeavours, for who
would be happy to invest in any share and lose money just because the
share in question did better than an index? It is a preposterous
idea and yet it pervades so much professional fund management.
Investors become shareholders not only because they expect to make a
profit but also because they expect Aurora to do better than other
investment trusts and also better than the market generally. In this
respect these results were better than all but two of the seventeen
trusts in the Association of Investment Trust Companies' UK Growth
Sector. Furthermore the performance of the stock market generally,
as measured by the FTSE All-Share Index - which covers the share
price performance of about the 1,000 largest companies - rose by
11.2%, a perfectly acceptable return but a lot less than James' 23.4%
for shareholders. So this year at least the primary and secondary
aims have also been achieved.
The investment income earned from the Company's portfolio this year
is circa £100,000 lower that last year and the Group net income is
down from £741,000 to £562,000. Nevertheless there is enough income
to increase the dividend again - another of our aims - and the Board
is recommending to shareholders a dividend of 2.9p per share, against
one of 2.85p per share last year.
An attribution analysis of the year's results shows - in approximate
terms - the following:
Net Asset Value (beginning year) 185.65p per share
Effect of the Stock Market + 11.2% + 20.79p per share
Effect of Stock Selection + 8.9% + 16.43p per share
Effect of Gearing + 3.3% + 6.22p per share
Net Asset Value (end yr) + 23.4% 229.09p per share
But for the good stock selection and the gearing, the net asset value
would have ended the year at approximately 206.5p per share. The
main reason for the excellent stock selection came from the
portfolio's exposure to Ireland. Of the increase in the net asset
value of circa 43.44p per share, the Irish portfolio of stocks added
circa 30p per share; James's report to shareholders, which follows
this, expounds on the favourable economic position that Ireland finds
itself in - in part because of some of the absurdities of the
European Union and its Euro and in part because it has been
intelligently governed in the last several years. Despite the
adverse publicity surrounding housing companies our exposure to
Persimmon, Abbey and McCarthy & Stone added circa 12p per share to
our net asset value. There were inevitably poor performers with BTG
(- 4.25p per share) and Gresham Computing (- 2.25p per share) being
the worst two; James comments on them too.
Top 5 Contributors Addition to Bottom 5 Detraction from NAV
NAV Contributors per share
Per share
Gartmore Irish + 13.50p BTG Group - 4.25p
Growth
Anglo Irish Bank + 12.50p Gresham Computing - 2.50p
Emblaze + 12.00p B Sky B - 1.00p
Persimmon + 5.25p SVB - 1.00p
Abbey + 3.50p Premier Farnell - 0.75p
Long Term Returns: NAV:
5 Years: + 11.6% to 229.1p;
Benchmark: - 20.2%
Since launch: + 134.3% to 229.1p;
Benchmark: + 1.7%
The nature of James' approach to investing is essentially a long term
one (of which more later); indeed the nature of successful investing
is long term. Share prices are volatile; they are affected by
economic cycles and the effect that they have on corporate profits
and dividends. In recent years that volatility has been exaggerated
by the institutionalisation of the market with its volatility of
expectations and the huge increase in the use of derivatives. It is
certain that all but a few investors are unable to make successful
short term bets (for that is what they are) on the direction of
stocks generally or individually. It is for this reason that your
Board of Directors does not look at the year's results when
undertaking its annual evaluation of the Manager. This year's
evaluation looked at the ability, experience, commitment and
performance of all those individuals involved in the management of
all of the Company's affairs - whether it be portfolio management or
corporate administration - as well as the five year returns. Over
the last five years the net asset value has risen by 11.6%, a good
performance considering that the base date coincided with the top of
the dot.com bubble; the FTSE All-Share Index, our benchmark, has
fallen by 20.2% since then. It is our belief that it is because
James takes a long term approach and because he is so committed to
the success of the Company - he spends the majority of his time
managing the portfolio and he has a large shareholding in its shares
- that he has produced such good long term results.
The Board's Policies concerning Gearing, Dividends and Investment in
other Investment Trusts
The Board of Directors has determined that borrowings under normal
circumstances - that is when markets are not obviously very over or
undervalued - should be around 20% of shareholders funds ("the
gearing"). Our Articles of Association restrict us to gearing of no
more than 25%; we wish to increase that to 30%, not because we wish
to change our gearing policy but because we wish to have the
flexibility not to have to sell shares when the market has fallen and
thereby be selling at depressed prices.
Following the recent changes to the Listing Rules, Investment Trusts
must state their policy in relation to investing in the shares of
other investment trusts and companies. We have adopted a policy
restricting such investment to less than 15% of total assets.
However it should be noted that we will use that 15% from time to
time to obtain general portfolio exposure to areas where James does
not have as much investment knowledge or experience as can be
obtained through third party investment. Our commitment to Gartmore
Irish Growth at the moment provides an example of this policy in
action.
Your Board of Directors is aware that there is an ever increasing
requirement from investors for current income from their investments
- be they equities, bonds or property. It stems from the ageing of
the investor population, resulting in investors being much more yield
conscious when deciding what shares to own. Our own dividend to
shareholders in any one year will be determined by the income that
the portfolio generated in that year. However we would expect the
dividend to grow over the long term and at a rate at least as high as
that of inflation.
Annual General Meeting: at 12 pm on 29 June 2005 at 145-157 St John
St., London, EC1
I do urge as many shareholders as possible to attend the Annual
General Meeting, which will be held at 12 pm on 29 June 2005 at
Cavendish Administration's offices at Crusader House 145-157 St John
Street, London (Farringdon tube station). It is the one occasion in
the year when shareholders can meet all of the Directors and ask
questions or make comments or suggestions which we would welcome and
which we feel that all shareholders should have the benefit of
hearing. Please come and join us.
Corporate Governance: Evaluation of Board's Governance
During this past year we have undertaken our first evaluation of the
Board of Directors' governance of the Company. We have not sought to
tinker with our governance, conscious that it is an ongoing duty of
the Directors to make improvements to its modus operandi at all
times, not just once a year. However the annual evaluation of the
Board's governance gives us a chance to think about how better
governance can make a difference to the Company's results. We have
therefore adopted a goals-based approach, asking ourselves how we as
a board of directors could improve our governance in such a way as to
make a material difference to the prospects of the Company.
Our Investment Policy: Assessment of long term fundamentals and
trends and making appropriate portfolio exposures.
Ever since the Company was formed in 1997, James has laid out his
understanding of the trends in social, economic and financial
fundamentals. He has said that he believes that the extraordinary
progress of technology, the consequences of competitive
globalisation, the emergence of China as the prime manufacturing
country in the world and the ageing of populations are all working to
produce an era of disinflation turning into deflation. At some
stage, much as it did in Japan after 1989, high levels of debt start
to decline and they then become a fiercely deflationary force. In
such a world companies find that they have little pricing power,
making sales and profits growth difficult to achieve. Our policy has
focussed on identifying some of those areas where he feels that
companies do still have a chance to increase their profits without
the threat of fierce price competition.
Shareholders will be familiar with certain of his themes which
include the peculiarities of the housing market in the UK, companies
with growth prospects enhanced by exposure to the economy of China,
Ireland benefiting from the idiocies of the European Union and the
Euro with its one rule which doesn't fit-all interest rate policy,
special technology companies with exceptional and unusual niches,
companies benefiting from the greying societies and so on. All of
these themes are long term trends and likely to be at work for many
years.
However, just as the rise in inflation in the years up to the early
1980s was punctuated with short periods when the rate of inflation
declined, so the disinflationary and deflationary trends of our
present era also have periods when inflation rates increase, as is
possibly the case at the moment. These periods will be relatively
short - in relation to the long term basic trend; their durations
will be difficult to assess. At such times the shares in those areas
in the stock market that benefit from inflation will do well while
the deflation beneficiaries will suffer. Because James is a long
term investor he does not try to make short term bets on
countertrends, whose long term duration he doesn't believe in. It
will therefore mean that there will be periods when the portfolio
does not perform well, but as long as his fundamental assessments are
right - and his boardroom colleagues believe they are - the
valuations will always bounce back and then some. The last eight
years, since the Company was launched, has seen this happen and we
expect it to happen in the future; the last eight years have produced
excellent returns, even if each and every quarter or year hasn't.
Current Outlook and Prospects:
As I mentioned above, it does look as if we are in a period of - I
believe temporary - rising inflation. Interest rates have risen in
the growth economies of the Anglo Saxon world and China, the very
economies which are driving world growth. In the Anglo Saxon
economies the economic driver is the consumer and in most cases a
very indebted one; it seems unlikely that he/she can go on getting
even more in debt and thus keep yesterday's growth rates going. In
China, and some of its neighbouring economies, the economic driver
has been capital investment, required to increase capacity to produce
evermore consumer goods to supply to those Anglo Saxon consumers. It
is a bit of a pressure pot and it is not surprising therefore that
there should be a (temporary) rise in the rate of inflation. However
the world's major central banks are independent of government (USA,
Canada, UK, EU, Japan etc) and are likely to create tight enough
money to quash inflation. The danger is that, unwittingly, they
overdo it because it is difficult to judge just how far and how long
to pursue such policies.
Markets do not seem to be unduly concerned by fears of deflation but
they are concerned about the USA's two deficits, about oil prices
remaining high, about rising inflation and the consequent rising
interest rates and thence about slowing economies. This probably
explains why markets, which are not generally and obviously
overvalued, are cautious, fearing the effect that slower growth might
have on corporate profits, currently benefiting from high profit
margins, and on dividends.
These issues aside, our own prospects are a function of our own
ability to choose the right companies to back and thereby make
positive returns for shareholders. James, committed as he is to
Aurora's success, has managed that pretty well in the last eight
years and we see no reason to suppose that he won't continue to do
so.
ALEX HAMMOND-CHAMBERS
18 May 2005
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF TOTAL RETURN
FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2005
Year ended 28 February 2005 Year ended 29 February 2004
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Gains on investments - 7,114 7,114 - 10,283 10,283
Exchange differences - 69 69 - 3 3
on overdraft
Realised gains of 195 - 195 172 - 172
trading subsidiary
Income 857 - 857 953 - 953
Investment management (156) (605) (761) (130) (620) (750)
fees
Other expenses (195) - (195) (174) - (174)
Return before finance 701 6,578 7,279 821 9,666 10,487
costs and taxation
Interest payable and (139) (139) (278) (89) (89) (178)
similar charges
Return before 562 6,439 7,001 732 9,577 10,309
taxation
Taxation - - - 9 - 9
Return on ordinary 562 6,439 7,001 741 9,577 10,318
activities after
taxation
Ordinary dividends (438) - (438) (431) - (431)
payable
Transfer to reserves 124 6,439 6,563 310 9,577 9,887
Return per ordinary 3.72p 42.62p 46.34p 4.91p 63.39p 68.30p
share
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET
AT 28 FEBRUARY 2005
2005 2004
£'000 £'000
FIXED ASSETS
Investments at market value 41,836 34,851
CURRENT ASSETS
Sales for future settlement 414 -
Other debtors 75 66
Taxation recoverable 18 1
Total debtors 507 67
Cash at bank and in hand 745 839
1,252 906
CREDITORS: AMOUNTS FALLING DUE WITHIN ONE YEAR:
Purchases for future settlement 734 275
Bank overdraft 6,751 6,406
Other creditors 555 598
Dividends payable 438 431
8,478 7,710
NET CURRENT LIABILITIES (7,226) (6,804)
TOTAL ASSETS LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES 34,610 28,047
CAPITAL AND RESERVES
Called up share capital 3,777 3,777
Share premium account 10,997 10,997
Realised capital reserve 8,099 6,977
Unrealised capital reserve 10,949 5,632
Revenue reserve 788 664
EQUITY SHAREHOLDERS' FUNDS 34,610 28,047
Net assets per ordinary share 229.09p 185.65p
CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOW STATEMENT
FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2005
2005 2004
£'000 £'000
NET CASH INFLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES 47 766
SERVICING OF FINANCE
Interest paid (298) (268)
TAXATION
Tax (paid)/recovered - 43
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE AND FINANCIAL INVESTMENT
Payments to acquire fixed asset investments (7,747) (11,392)
Receipts on disposal of fixed asset investments 7,921 9,071
NET CASH INFLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES 174 (2,321)
EQUITY DIVIDENDS PAID (431) (468)
NET CASH INFLOW BEFORE FINANCING (508) (2,248)
(DECREASE)/INCREASE IN CASH (508) (2,248)
Notes:
The revenue column of the Statement of Total Return is the
consolidated profit and loss account of the Group, comprising Aurora
Investment Trust plc and AIT Trading Limited.
All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from
continuing operations. No operations were acquired or discontinued
during the period. There were no extraordinary items.
Returns and net asset values per ordinary share are based on
15,107,250 ordinary shares in issue.
Dividend
The directors recommend an ordinary dividend of 2.9p per share
absorbing £438,110. If approved by the Annual General Meeting, this
dividend will be paid on 12 July 2005 to shareholders on the register
at 27 May 2005.
Status of this Report
The above results for the year ended 28 February 2005 are unaudited.
This financial information does not constitute the Company and
Group's statutory accounts for the year ended 28 February 2005 but is
derived from those accounts. Statutory accounts for the year ended 28
February 2005 are to be delivered to the Registrar of Companies
following the Annual General Meeting.
The results for the year ended 29 February 2004 are an abridged
version of the Group's full accounts, which received an unqualified
audit report, not containing statements under section 237(2) or
237(3) of the Companies Act 1985, and which have been filed with the
Registrar of Companies.
The accounting policies set out in the most recently published full
accounts have been followed in this statement.
Company Secretary and Registered Office:
Cavendish Administration Limited
Crusader House, 145-157 St. John Street
London EC1V 4RU
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