Interim Management Statement
Aurora Investment Trust plc
Interim Management Statement
30 November 2008
Objective: Capital appreciation through investments mainly listed on
the London Stock Exchange.
Benchmarks: The FTSE All-Share and Treasury 7.25% Stock 2007.
Policy: To invest primarily in equities but with some exposure also
to Fixed Interest. In general the portfolio will be weighted
towards the larger rather than the smaller capitalised stocks. A
distinctive feature is an emphasis on investments in companies with
exposure to economies growing at a faster rate than the UK.
Manager's Comments
SLOWDOWN OR RECESSION?
This title summarises the heated debate which is currently occurring
amongst economists and forecasters of both the US and UK economies.
By contrast, and without waiting for further evidence, investment
managers in general appear to have made up their minds. They have
taken what profits they can and have 'headed for the hills' to avoid
a repeat of the experience in the mid 1970's at the time of the last
banking crisis, when oil prices were rocketing and inflation rising
rapidly.
In the UK stock-market, the result has been 'carnage' in the
financial sector led by banks (worries over sub-prime mortgages and
CDOs, not to mention the collapse of Northern Rock) and by supposed
private equity bid candidates given the impossibility of raising the
necessary finance. More recently, consumer stocks, including
house-builders, have followed suit as consumer sentiment has
deteriorated, culminating in a relatively poor Christmas trading
period for the retailing sector. In brief, the FTSE 250 index and
smaller market capitalisations have been sold, almost regardless of
future prospects, in a 'flight to cash' or enhanced liquidity; the
large stocks have certainly fared better than their smaller brethren.
The only sector to shine in relative terms was the mining sector to
which the portfolio is heavily committed.
Against such a background the Company, whose objective is to invest
in future growth stocks, has seen its Net Asset Value under-perform
the Benchmark during the three- month period to 30 November. The Net
asset value fell by 2.3% by comparison with a rise of 0.6% by the FT
All-share index. This under-performance can be ascribed to the fact
that no less than three of the company's main investment themes have
suffered during the recent turmoil. The Manager, however, remains
confident that all of them remain valid and indeed potent.
First, sales of new houses and flats may be relatively subdued this
spring but the problem of the dire shortage of modern accommodation,
particularly in the South-East, will take some two decades to resolve
against a backcloth of the disintegration of the family unit and
rapid immigration. Moreover with certain current share prices
standing at discounts to NAV there remains a strong possibility of
corporate activity within the sector. The house-building sector
habitually outperforms at a time of interest rate reductions- a near
certain forthcoming feature in 2008.
Secondly, the Irish stock-market has been unduly affected on account
of a sharp turn in sentiment and the expression of the view that the
Irish economy is a property bubble about to burst. Since there is
clear evidence to the contrary, (the house-building sector being the
sole exception representing only some 7% of GDP) and with official
forecasts for Irish GDP growth for 2008 in the range of +3+4% the
Irish stock-market looks well placed to perform when confidence
rebuilds.
Thirdly, as can be expected from a growth-oriented portfolio there is
a high exposure to 'concept' stocks with small market
capitalisations. However exciting their prospects and despite some
good newsflow, e.g. from BTG and Gresham Computing, the market has
ignored their long-term growth prospects and abandoned them in the
rush for safety. The Manager, however, remains confident that several
of them will produce substantial gains for the portfolio over the
next few years, regardless of the level of interest rates, the oil
price, currencies or the absence of growth in the UK economy.
OUTLOOK
The Manager does not think that, in terms of market or economic
performance, 2008 is likely to be a rerun of the mid 1970s. Recession
is likely to be avoided. It is evident from recent statements of Mr
Bernanke's, that the Fed will do whatever is necessary to avoid an
outright recession by means of providing liquidity with future
interest rate reductions. The Bank of England, likewise, is set to
reduce interest rates in 2008. A most important recent feature is
that both US Dollar and Sterling LIBOR rates have come back into line
with official Base Rates, leading one to conclude that some normality
is beginning to return to the banking sector, albeit the credit
strains are evident..
The current price of oil is of lesser importance to the UK economy
today than in the mid 1970s and its price relatively lower in real
terms than then. The forces of gobalisation have reduced the pricing
power of the UK labour force. In consequence, although commodities
are being driven up in price by the insatiable demands of the BRIC
countries, the likelihood of a sustained period of stagflation
remains low. The US economy is no longer the sole driving force of
the global economy as, to all intents and purposes, it was then.
Accordingly, the dynamism of the densely populated BRIC countries
will ensure that global growth will be more sustainable., albeit not
at the 5% rate which prevailed in late spring.
In summary, the Manager is confident that a change in sentiment,
following a series of interest rate reductions together with
continued corporate activity centred around both Rio Tinto and
Xstrata (both large holdings), will help change the current gloomy
view of the markets later into 2008.
MARS ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED
+-------------------------------------------+
| N.A.V: 221.36p |
| Total net assets £31.704m |
| |
| Largest Holdings: |
| |
| |
| Rio Tinto 12.4% |
| Gartmore Irish Growth 8.9% |
| Anglo Irish Bank |
| Arriva 7.6% |
| Xstrata 5.4% |
| Scottish & Southern 4.9% |
| Standard Chartered 4.4% |
| Drax Group 4.0% |
| BTG 3.8% |
| Antofagasta 3.7% |
| 3.6% |
| |
| Total Top Ten 58.7% |
+-------------------------------------------+
+----------------------------------------------+
| Performance: | | |
|--------------------+----------------+--------|
| | FTSE All-Share | NAV |
|--------------------+----------------+--------|
| | % | % |
|--------------------+----------------+--------|
| Since launch | +52.2 | +126.4 |
|--------------------+----------------+--------|
| 5 years | +63.8 | +79.9 |
|--------------------+----------------+--------|
| 3 years | +39.9 | +10.0 |
|--------------------+----------------+--------|
| 12 months | +5.1 | -6.3 |
|--------------------+----------------+--------|
| 3 months | +0.6 | -2.5 |
+----------------------------------------------+
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| |
| Fund Details: |
| |
| Manager: Mars Asset Management Ltd tel: 0207-410-0025 |
| website:www.marsassetmanagement.co.uk |
| |
| Stockbroker : Cenkos Securities Ltd. |
| Launch Date 13/3/1997 |
| |
| Shares In issue (including 785,000 held in Treasury) 15,107,250 |
| Daily quotes : Financial Times, Daily Telegraph |
| Valuations : Bi-monthly |
| Fees -management : 0.75 p.a. charged monthly, performance fee ; |
| yes |
| administration/secretarial :0.25pa |
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