Interim Management Statement

Aurora Investment Trust plc Interim Management Statement 30 November 2008 Objective: Capital appreciation through investments mainly listed on the London Stock Exchange. Benchmarks: The FTSE All-Share and Treasury 7.25% Stock 2007. Policy: To invest primarily in equities but with some exposure also to Fixed Interest. In general the portfolio will be weighted towards the larger rather than the smaller capitalised stocks. A distinctive feature is an emphasis on investments in companies with exposure to economies growing at a faster rate than the UK. Manager's Comments SLOWDOWN OR RECESSION? This title summarises the heated debate which is currently occurring amongst economists and forecasters of both the US and UK economies. By contrast, and without waiting for further evidence, investment managers in general appear to have made up their minds. They have taken what profits they can and have 'headed for the hills' to avoid a repeat of the experience in the mid 1970's at the time of the last banking crisis, when oil prices were rocketing and inflation rising rapidly. In the UK stock-market, the result has been 'carnage' in the financial sector led by banks (worries over sub-prime mortgages and CDOs, not to mention the collapse of Northern Rock) and by supposed private equity bid candidates given the impossibility of raising the necessary finance. More recently, consumer stocks, including house-builders, have followed suit as consumer sentiment has deteriorated, culminating in a relatively poor Christmas trading period for the retailing sector. In brief, the FTSE 250 index and smaller market capitalisations have been sold, almost regardless of future prospects, in a 'flight to cash' or enhanced liquidity; the large stocks have certainly fared better than their smaller brethren. The only sector to shine in relative terms was the mining sector to which the portfolio is heavily committed. Against such a background the Company, whose objective is to invest in future growth stocks, has seen its Net Asset Value under-perform the Benchmark during the three- month period to 30 November. The Net asset value fell by 2.3% by comparison with a rise of 0.6% by the FT All-share index. This under-performance can be ascribed to the fact that no less than three of the company's main investment themes have suffered during the recent turmoil. The Manager, however, remains confident that all of them remain valid and indeed potent. First, sales of new houses and flats may be relatively subdued this spring but the problem of the dire shortage of modern accommodation, particularly in the South-East, will take some two decades to resolve against a backcloth of the disintegration of the family unit and rapid immigration. Moreover with certain current share prices standing at discounts to NAV there remains a strong possibility of corporate activity within the sector. The house-building sector habitually outperforms at a time of interest rate reductions- a near certain forthcoming feature in 2008. Secondly, the Irish stock-market has been unduly affected on account of a sharp turn in sentiment and the expression of the view that the Irish economy is a property bubble about to burst. Since there is clear evidence to the contrary, (the house-building sector being the sole exception representing only some 7% of GDP) and with official forecasts for Irish GDP growth for 2008 in the range of +3+4% the Irish stock-market looks well placed to perform when confidence rebuilds. Thirdly, as can be expected from a growth-oriented portfolio there is a high exposure to 'concept' stocks with small market capitalisations. However exciting their prospects and despite some good newsflow, e.g. from BTG and Gresham Computing, the market has ignored their long-term growth prospects and abandoned them in the rush for safety. The Manager, however, remains confident that several of them will produce substantial gains for the portfolio over the next few years, regardless of the level of interest rates, the oil price, currencies or the absence of growth in the UK economy. OUTLOOK The Manager does not think that, in terms of market or economic performance, 2008 is likely to be a rerun of the mid 1970s. Recession is likely to be avoided. It is evident from recent statements of Mr Bernanke's, that the Fed will do whatever is necessary to avoid an outright recession by means of providing liquidity with future interest rate reductions. The Bank of England, likewise, is set to reduce interest rates in 2008. A most important recent feature is that both US Dollar and Sterling LIBOR rates have come back into line with official Base Rates, leading one to conclude that some normality is beginning to return to the banking sector, albeit the credit strains are evident.. The current price of oil is of lesser importance to the UK economy today than in the mid 1970s and its price relatively lower in real terms than then. The forces of gobalisation have reduced the pricing power of the UK labour force. In consequence, although commodities are being driven up in price by the insatiable demands of the BRIC countries, the likelihood of a sustained period of stagflation remains low. The US economy is no longer the sole driving force of the global economy as, to all intents and purposes, it was then. Accordingly, the dynamism of the densely populated BRIC countries will ensure that global growth will be more sustainable., albeit not at the 5% rate which prevailed in late spring. In summary, the Manager is confident that a change in sentiment, following a series of interest rate reductions together with continued corporate activity centred around both Rio Tinto and Xstrata (both large holdings), will help change the current gloomy view of the markets later into 2008. MARS ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED +-------------------------------------------+ | N.A.V: 221.36p | | Total net assets £31.704m | | | | Largest Holdings: | | | | | | Rio Tinto 12.4% | | Gartmore Irish Growth 8.9% | | Anglo Irish Bank | | Arriva 7.6% | | Xstrata 5.4% | | Scottish & Southern 4.9% | | Standard Chartered 4.4% | | Drax Group 4.0% | | BTG 3.8% | | Antofagasta 3.7% | | 3.6% | | | | Total Top Ten 58.7% | +-------------------------------------------+ +----------------------------------------------+ | Performance: | | | |--------------------+----------------+--------| | | FTSE All-Share | NAV | |--------------------+----------------+--------| | | % | % | |--------------------+----------------+--------| | Since launch | +52.2 | +126.4 | |--------------------+----------------+--------| | 5 years | +63.8 | +79.9 | |--------------------+----------------+--------| | 3 years | +39.9 | +10.0 | |--------------------+----------------+--------| | 12 months | +5.1 | -6.3 | |--------------------+----------------+--------| | 3 months | +0.6 | -2.5 | +----------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | Fund Details: | | | | Manager: Mars Asset Management Ltd tel: 0207-410-0025 | | website:www.marsassetmanagement.co.uk | | | | Stockbroker : Cenkos Securities Ltd. | | Launch Date 13/3/1997 | | | | Shares In issue (including 785,000 held in Treasury) 15,107,250 | | Daily quotes : Financial Times, Daily Telegraph | | Valuations : Bi-monthly | | Fees -management : 0.75 p.a. charged monthly, performance fee ; | | yes | | administration/secretarial :0.25pa | +-------------------------------------------------------------------+ ---END OF MESSAGE---
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