AURORA INVESTMENT TRUST Plc
Interim Management Statement 30th June 2009
Directors:
Alex Hammond-Chambers (Chairman); James Barstow FCA; David H. Hunter;
Richard Robinson
Fund Manager:
James Barstow of Mars Asset Management Ltd
Year End: 28th February
Dividend: Final only. Latest dividend 3.25p plus Special dividend
Payment 16th July 2009
Benchmark: All-Share Index
Objective:
Capital Appreciation through investments listed mainly on the London
Stock Exchange.
Policy (Summary)
To invest primarily in equities but with some exposure also to Fixed
Interest. In general the portfolio will be weighted towards the
larger rather than smaller capitalised stocks. A distinctive feature
is an emphasis on investments in companies with exposure to economies
growing at a faster rate than the UK.
Largest Holdings 30th June 2009
£ 000's %
BTG 1743 8.4
AVIVA 1262 6.1
SCOTTISH & SOUTHERN 1252 6.1
BP 1075 5.2
RSA 8.5% 942 4.6
BARCLAYS 9.75% CCV 924 4.5
PRUDENTIAL 827 4.0
VENTURE PRODUCTION 812 3.9
BG 763 3.7
ASIAN CITRUS 745 3.6
Total 50.1%
Sector Analysis
£ 000's %
AIM 1`896 9.1
Banks Retail 925 4.5
Electricity/Water 1253 6.1
Financials(other) 947 4.6
Fixed Interest 1830 8.9
Information Technology 539 2.6
Insurance 2090 10.1
Convertibles 924 4.5
Mining 3423 16.6
Oil & Gas Exploration and Production 3641 17.6
Aerospace 350 1.7
Software 399 1.9
Pharmaceuticals 1743 8.4
Transport 710 3.4
Performance
NAV(ex-income)
FTSE All-Share
Since Launch to 30/06/09
+37.7% +0.7%
5 years to 30/06/09
-24.3 -2.6
3 years to 30/06/09
-42.8 -16.8
1 year to 30/06/09
-35.7 -24.0
6 months to 30/06/09 +11.5
-1.7
4 months to 30/06/09
+20.4 +12.2
31/12/08 30/06/09
Share price
87.75p 123.5p
Discount 27.3
% 8.3%
Review
The four month period under review witnessed a sharp rebound in the
UK stock-market, on hopes of economic recovery, led by the mining,
industrial and financial sectors during March, April and May, from
the trough attained in early March. June, by contrast, encountered
some profit taking in line with the normal expected summer malaise.
Accordingly, the period provided more clement conditions for a growth
oriented trust against a background where the consensus was that a
turning point in the economy was close at hand. Furthermore, recent
changes in the Budget to raise the top level of income tax, whilst
leaving unchanged the rate levied on capital gains, has also helped
to change sentiment from being highly defensive and mainly income
oriented to being more geared towards capital growth.
In this light, the trend of out-performance by the company's
portfolio relative to its benchmark, which commenced at the start of
2009, continued during the period under review. The net asset value
per share increased by 20.4% from 111.9p to 134.6p, by comparison
with the rise in the FT All-share index which rose by 12.2%. The main
contributory factors behind this out-performance were that the
portfolio at the start of period was fully invested and heavily
exposed to the mining and financial sectors in particular, as well as
to stocks exposed to the currently growing emerging economies.
Outlook
The most recent inflation data for the UK economy shows that CPI
inflation has fallen below target for the first time since late 2007;
more-over RPI inflation has fallen to -1.6% from -1.1% the previous
month. The conclusion to be reached from these statistics is that
interest rates in the UK are likely to stay low for some time, which
will prove beneficial both for the economy and for the stock-market,
on account of the needs of income hungry investors. Indeed certain
economists are keen to point out that under the well known Taylor
rule the current appropriate rate of interest, in view of the
prevailing economic conditions, should be set at minus 3% !
Economic recovery after every downturn always takes place as
inventory levels are used up and spare capacity is reduced. This time
however, in view of the low rate of inflation, the economic recovery
in the UK is likely to be slow on account of the high level of
indebtedness by both the consumer and the government. Unemployment,
always a lagging indicator, looks set to continue to rise for many
months.
Against such a background, whilst being optimistic about the prospect
for making money for shareholders, the portfolio is likely to
continue to avoid exposure to the UK consumer and remain heavily
oriented towards companies benefiting from the rapid expansion of
emerging economies particularly in non- Japan Asia.
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