Part 4 of 5 HY09 Report

RNS Number : 9696W
Aviva PLC
06 August 2009
 




___________

Part 4 of 5 

Page 91 


Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements


Condensed consolidated income statement - MCEV basis

For the six month period ended 30 June 2009

6 months 2009
€m



6 months 2009
£m

Restated
 
6 months
 2008
£m

Restated
f
ull year
 
2008
 
£m



Operating profit before tax attributable to shareholders' profits




1,806


Long-term business

1,607

1,280

2,810

612


General insurance and health

545

528

1,198

(5)


Fund management1

(4)

30

42



Other: 




(111)


    Other operations and regional costs2

(99)

(57)

(163)

(52)


    Corporate centre

(46)

(71)

(141)

(357)


Group debt costs and other interest

(318)

(201)

(379)

1,893


Operating profit before tax attributable to shareholders' profits

1,685

1,509

3,367



Adjusted for the following:




(32)


Economic variances on long-term business

(29)

(4,086)

(12,058)

(140)


Short-term fluctuation in return on investments on non-long-term business 

(125)

(314)

(819)

58


Economic assumption changes on general insurance and health business 

52

6

(94)

(6)


Impairment of goodwill

(5)

(42)

(66)

(58)


Amortisation and impairment of intangibles 

(52)

(44)

(108)

22


Profit on the disposal of subsidiaries and associates

20

9

7

(166)


Integration and restructuring costs

(148)

(132)

(326)

(245)


Exceptional items3

(218)

(155)

(754)

1,326


Profit/(loss) before tax

1,180

(3,249)

(10,851)

(467)


Tax on operating profit 

(416)

(453)

(841)

359


Tax on other activities

320

1,341

4,252

(108)



(96)

888

3,411

1,218


Profit/(loss) for the period

1,084

(2,361)

(7,440)

All profit is from continuing operations.

1.    Excludes the proportion of the results of Aviva Investors fund management businesses and other fund management operations within the group that arises from the provision of fund management services to our life businesses. These results are included within the life MCEV operating earnings consistent with Aviva's MCEV methodology.

2.    Excludes the proportion of the results of subsidiaries providing services to the Life business. These results are included within the life MCEV operating earnings consistent with Aviva's MCEV methodology.

3.     Exceptional item of £218 million for the six month period to 30 June 2009 is in relation to legislation changes on pensions in Poland.


Earnings per share - MCEV basis

6 months 2009



6 months 2009

Restated
 
6 months
 2008

Restated
f
ull year
 
2008



Operating earnings per share on an MCEV basis after tax, attributable to 
ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc




46.6c


Basic (pence per share)

41.4p

33.9p

83.4p

46.3c


Diluted (pence per share)

41.2p

33.6p

82.7p



Earnings after tax on an MCEV basis, attributable to ordinary 
shareholders of Aviva plc




43.9c


Basic (pence per share)

39.1p

(91.6)p

(272.5)p

43.7c


Diluted (pence per share)

38.9p

(91.6)p

(272.5)p



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Page 92 

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


Condensed statement of comprehensive income - MCEV basis

For the six month period ended 30 June 2009

6 months
 
2009
€m



6 months 2009
£m

Restated
 
6 months
 2008
£m

Restated
Full year
 
2008
 
£m

1,218


Profit/(loss) for the period

1,084

(2,361)

(7,440)



Other comprehensive income




(134)


Fair value losses on AFS securities, owner-occupied properties and hedging instruments

(121)

(130)

(278)

(6)


Fair value gains transferred to profit

(5)

(10)

(8)

(1,551)


Actuarial losses on pension schemes

(1,380)

(690)

(929)

166


Actuarial gains on pension schemes transferred to unallocated divisible surplus and other movements

148

71

78

17


Impairment losses

15

74

81

(1,962)


Foreign exchange rate movements

(1,746)

997

3,098

30


Aggregate tax effect - shareholder tax

27

11

66

(3,440)


Other comprehensive income for the period, net tax

(3,062)

323

2,108

(2,222)


Total comprehensive (expense)/income for the period

(1,978)

(2,038)

(5,332)



Attributable to:




(1,851)


    Equity shareholders of Aviva plc

(1,648)

(2,263)

(5,985)

(371)


    Minority interests

(330)

225

653

(2,222)



(1,978)

(2,038)

(5,332)

Condensed statement of changes in equity - MCEV basis

For the six month period ended 30 June 2009

30 June
 2009

€m



30 June
 2009

£m

Restated
 6 months

 2008

£m

Restated 
31 December 2008

 £m

20,765


Balance at 1 January 

17,650

23,848

23,848

(2,328)


Total comprehensive (expense)/income for the period

(1,978)

(2,038)

(5,332)

(631)


Dividends and appropriations

(536)

(563)

(975)

-


Issues of share capital

-

31

20

216


Shares issued in lieu of dividends

184

170

170

7


Capital contributions from minority shareholders

6

7

36

(42)


Minority share of dividends declared in the year

(36)

(75)

(106)

(2)


Minority interest in (disposed)/acquired subsidiaries

(2)

59

43

-


Changes in minority interest in existing subsidiaries

-

(78)

(65)

-


Shares acquired by employee trusts

-

-

(29)

24


Reserves credit for equity compensation plans

20

27

39

18,009


Total equity

15,308

21,388

17,649

(3,198)


Minority interests

(2,719)

(2,657)

(3,080)

14,811


Balance at 30 June/31 December

12,589

18,731

14,569

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Page 93 


Condensed consolidated statement of financial position 
- MCEV basis

As at 30 June 2009

30 June
 
2009
€m



30 June
 
2009
£m

Restated
 30 June

 2008
£m

Restated 
31 December

 
2008
 
£m



Assets




3,954


Goodwill

3,361

3,048

3,578

3,846


Acquired value of in-force business and intangible assets

3,269

3,170

4,038

2,941


Additional value of in-force long-term business1

2,500

6,714

3,203

1,612


Interests in, and loans to, joint ventures

1,370

2,588

1,737

1,282


Interests in, and loans to, associates

1,090

1,211

1,246

947


Property and equipment

805

996

964

14,374


Investment property

12,218

15,048

14,426

46,727


Loans

39,718

37,387

42,237



Financial investments




171,727


    Debt securities

145,968

125,661

150,255

42,500


    Equity securities

36,125

51,027

43,351

34,041


    Other investments

28,935

34,510

36,116

8,241


Reinsurance assets

7,005

8,273

7,894

2,944


Deferred tax assets

2,502

249

2,642

522


Current tax assets

444

534

622

12,666


Receivables and other financial assets

10,765

10,750

9,816

7,346


Deferred acquisition costs and other assets

6,244

5,074

6,147

4,322


Prepayments and accrued income

3,674

3,183

3,762

30,056


Cash and cash equivalents

25,548

18,783

24,181

2,965


Assets of operations classified as held for sale2

2,520

6,643

1,550

393,013


Total assets

334,061

334,849

357,765



Equity




806


Ordinary share capital

685

664

664

5,275


Capital reserves

4,484

4,516

4,505

2,391


Other reserves

2,032

1,601

3,539

(39)


Shares held by employee trusts

(33)

(10)

(33)

3,442


Retained earnings

2,926

5,244

3,806

1,536


Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis1

1,305

5,526

898

13,411


Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc

11,399

17,541

13,379

1,400


Preference share capital and direct capital instruments

1,190

1,190

1,190

3,198


Minority interests1

2,719

2,657

3,080

18,009


Total equity

15,308

21,388

17,649



Liabilities




190,324


Gross insurance liabilities 

161,775

154,593

174,850

114,754


Gross liabilities for investment contracts

97,541

98,627

107,559

2,686


Unallocated divisible surplus

2,283

4,065

2,325

9,380


Net asset value attributable to unitholders

7,973

7,861

6,918

4,653


Provisions

3,955

2,398

2,984

3,236


Deferred tax liabilities 

2,751

1,257

3,020

445


Current tax liabilities 

378

1,125

642

16,853


Borrowings

14,325

13,373

15,201

24,834


Payables and other financial liabilities

21,109

19,720

20,840

5,504


Other liabilities

4,678

4,537

4,556

2,335


Liabilities of operations classified as held for sale

1,985

5,905

1,221

375,004


Total liabilities

318,753

313,461

340,116

393,013


Total equity and liabilities

334,061

334,849

357,765


The summarised consolidated statement of financial position presented above is unaltered from the corresponding IFRS summarised consolidated  statement of financial position with the exception of the following: 

1.  Adding the excess of the Life MCEV, including minority interests, over the corresponding Life IFRS net assets represented as the additional value of in-force long-term business; corresponding item within equity represented by the additional retained profit on an MCEV basis; and, corresponding adjustments to minority interests.

2.  Assets of operations classified as held for sale per IFRS note A3 c (ii) has been increased by £69 million (30 June 2008: £nil; 31 December 2008: £nil) to reflect the additional value of in-force long-term business included in these operations.

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Page 94 

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


Reconciliation of shareholders' equity on IFRS and MCEV bases

For the six month period to 30 June 2009

30 June 2009

IFRS
£m

Adjustment
£m

MCEV
£m

Ordinary share capital

685

-

685

Capital reserves

4,484

-

4,484

Other reserves

1,487

545

2,032

Shares held by employee trusts

(33)

-

(33)

Retained earnings

2,926

-

2,926

Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis

-

1,305

1,305

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc 

9,549

1,850

11,399

Preference share capital

200

-

200

Direct capital instruments

990

-

990

Minority interests

2,000

719

2,719

Total equity

12,739

2,569

15,308


Restated 
30 June 2008

IFRS
£m

Adjustment
£m

MCEV
£m

Ordinary share capital

664

-

664

Capital reserves

4,516

-

4,516

Other reserves

1,211

390

1,601

Shares held by employee trusts

(10)

-

(10)

Retained earnings

5,244

-

5,244

Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis

-

5,526

5,526

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc 

11,625

5,916

17,541

Preference share capital

200

-

200

Direct capital instruments

990

-

990

Minority interests

1,859

798

2,657

Total equity

14,674

6,714

21,388


Restated
31 December 2008

IFRS
£m

Adjustment
£m

MCEV
£m

Ordinary share capital

664

-

664

Capital reserves

4,505

-

4,505

Other reserves

2,110

1,429

3,539

Shares held by employee trusts

(33)

-

(33)

Retained earnings

3,806

-

3,806

Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis

-

898

898

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc 

11,052

2,327

13,379

Preference share capital

200

-

200

Direct capital instruments

990

-

990

Minority interests

2,204

876

3,080

Total equity

14,446

3,203

17,649


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Page 95 


Reconciliation of IFRS total equity to MCEV net worth

For the six month period to 30 June 2009


30 June
 
2009
£m

Restated
 30 June

 
2008
£m

Restated 
31 December
 
2008
 
£m

Net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis

12,739

14,674

14,446

Adjusting for general business and other net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis

3,165

(282)

2,135

Life and related businesses net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis

15,904

14,392

16,581

Goodwill and other intangibles

(2,579)

(2,495)

(2,947)

Acquired value of in-force business

(1,913)

(1,834)

(2,490)

Adjustment for share of joint ventureand associates

(389)

(433)

(472)

Adjustment for assets to regulatory value net of tax

740

563

1,474

Adjustment for DAC and DIR net of tax

(2,918)

(2,018)

(2,680)

Adjustment for differences in technical provisions

1,275

781

406

Other accounting and tax differences

474

545

937

MCEV net worth

10,594

9,501

10,809

MCEV value of in-force

5,759

9,250

6,114

MCEV1

16,353

18,751

16,923

1.    Comprises embedded value of £14,263 million (30 June 2008: £16,729 million; 31 December 2008: £14,556 million) and minority interest in long-term business assets of £2,090 million (30 June 2008: £2,022 million; 31 December 2008: £2,367 million).

Group MCEV analysis of earnings 

30 June 2009
(net of tax and minority interests)

Covered 
business1
£m 

Non-  covered 
 but related  to life 

business
2
£m 

Total life 
business3
£m 

A+B 

Non-covered relating to non-life
£m

C

Total non- covered 
business

£m

B+C

Total
£m

A+B+C

Opening group MCEV

14,556

2,639

17,195

(2,626)

13

14,569

Opening adjustments

-

-

-

-

-

-

Adjusted opening group MCEV

14,556

2,639

17,195

(2,626)

13

14,569

Operating MCEV earnings

1,030

-

1,030

86

86

1,116

Non-operating MCEV earnings

17

(29)

(12)

(51)

(80)

(63)

Total MCEV earnings

1,047

(29)

1,018

35

6

1,053

Other movements in IFRS net equity

-

(373)

(373)

(943)

(1,316)

(1,316)

Capital and dividend flows

(48)

-

(48)

(284)

(284)

(332)

Foreign exchange variances

(1,294)

(281)

(1,575)

190

(91)

(1,385)

Acquired/divested businesses

2

(29)

(27)

27

(2)

-

Closing group MCEV

14,263

1,927

16,190

(3,601)

(1,674)

12,589

Preference share capital and direct capital instruments






(1,190)

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc 
on an MCEV basis






11,399


___________

Page 96 

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


Group MCEV analysis of earnings continued


Restated
30 June 2008

(net of tax and minority interests)

Covered 
business1
£m
 
A
 

Non-covered 
 but related  
to life 
business
2
£m
 
B
 

Total life 
business3
£m
 
A+B
 

Non-covered relating to non-life
£m

C

Total non- covered 
business

£m

B+C

Total
£m

A+B+C

Opening group MCEV

18,389

2,059

20,448

881

2,940

21,329

Opening adjustments

-

-

-

-

-

-

Adjusted opening group MCEV

18,389

2,059

20,448

881

2,940

21,329

Operating MCEV earnings

774

-

774

126

126

900

Non-operating MCEV earnings

(2,836)

(19)

(2,855)

(446)

(465)

(3,301)

Total MCEV earnings

(2,062)

(19)

(2,081)

(320)

(339)

(2,401)

Other movements in IFRS net equity

-

(88)

(88)

(674)

(762)

(762)

Capital and dividend flows

(599)

-

(599)

264

264

(335)

Foreign exchange variances

811

102

913

(13)

89

900

Acquired/divested businesses

190

117

307

(307)

(190)

-

Closing group MCEV

16,729

2,171

18,900

(169)

2,002

18,731

Preference share capital and direct capital instruments






(1,190)

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an MCEV basis






17,541


Restated
31 December 2008

(net of tax and minority interests)

Covered 
business1
£m
 
A
 

Non-covered 
 but related  
to life 
business
2
£m
 
B
 

Total life 
business3
£m
 
A+B
 

Non-covered relating to non-life
£m

C

Total 
non-
covered 
business

£m

B+C

Total
£m

A+B+C

Opening group MCEV

18,389

2,059

20,448

881

2,940

21,329

Opening adjustments

-

-

-

-

-

-

Adjusted opening group MCEV

18,389

2,059

20,448

881

2,940

21,329

Operating MCEV earnings

1,760

-

1,760

535

535

2,295

Non-operating MCEV earnings

(8,411)

(53)

(8,464)

(1,229)

(1,282)

(9,693)

Total MCEV earnings

(6,651)

(53)

(6,704)

(694)

(747)

(7,398)

Other movements in IFRS net equity

-

(28)

(28)

(994)

(1,022)

(1,022)

Capital and dividend flows

(63)

-

(63)

(712)

(712)

(775)

Foreign exchange variances

2,794

567

3,361

(926)

(359)

2,435

Acquired/divested businesses

87

94

181

(181)

(87)

-

Closing group MCEV

14,556

2,639

17,195

(2,626)

13

14,569

Preference share capital and direct capital instruments






 (1,190)

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an MCEV basis






13,379

1.    Covered business represents the business that the MCEV calculations cover, as detailed in the Basis of preparation note. The embedded value is presented net of minority interests and tax. 

2.    Non-covered but related to life business represents the adjustments to the MCEV, including goodwill, to calculate the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis. An analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis gross of minority interests is provided on page 108.

3.    Net assets for the total life businesses on an MCEV basis presented net of minority interests.


___________

Page 97 

B1 - Basis of preparation 

The consolidated income statement and condensed consolidated statement of financial position on pages 91 to 93 present the Group's results and financial position for the life and related businesses on Aviva's Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) basis and for its non-life businesses on the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) basis. The MCEV methodology adopted is in accordance with the MCEV Principles published by the CFO Forum in June 2008 with the exception of the use of an adjusted risk-free yield due to current market conditions for all contracts that contain features similar to immediate annuities and are backed by appropriate assets, including paid up group deferred annuities in the Netherlands, and deferred annuities and all other contracts in the US.

The CFO Forum MCEV Principles were designed during a period of relatively stable market conditions. As announced on 19 December 2008, the CFO Forum has agreed to conduct a review of the impact of turbulent market conditions on the MCEV Principles, the result of which may lead to changes to the published MCEV Principles or the issuance of guidance. The particular areas under review include implied volatilities, the cost of non-hedgeable risks, the use of swap rates as a proxy for risk-free rates and the effect of liquidity premia.
On the 22 May 2009, the CFO Forum announced that it was continuing work to seek to improve the consistency in the adjustments made for liquidity premium and volatilities. The CFO Forum stated that a further update will be provided later in 2009.

The directors consider that Aviva's MCEV methodology gives useful insight into the drivers of financial performance of the group's life and related businesses. This basis values future cash flows from assets consistently with market prices, including more explicit allowance for the impact of uncertainty in future investment returns and other risks.

Embedded value is also consistent with the way pricing is assessed and the business is managed. The results for our half year report have been reviewed by our auditors, Ernst & Young LLP. Their report in respect of the half year report can be found on page 125.

Covered business

The MCEV calculations cover the following lines of business: life insurance, long-term health and accident insurance, savings, pensions and annuity business written by our life insurance subsidiaries, including managed pension fund business and our share of the other life and related business written in our associated undertakings and joint ventures, as well as the equity release business written in the UK. 

Covered business includes the group's share of our joint ventures including our arrangement with The Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBSG) and our associated undertakings in IndiaChinaTurkeyMalaysiaTaiwan and South Korea. In addition, the results of group companies providing significant administration, fund management and other services and of group holding companies have been included to the extent that they relate to covered business. Together these businesses are referred to as 'Life and related businesses'.

Adjusted risk-free rate

In stable markets, swap curves are an appropriate risk-free rate. However, in the current turbulent market it is possible, for products where backing asset portfolios can be held to maturity, to earn returns in excess of swaps by investing in corporate bonds and credit default swaps (CDS). Aviva's MCEV methodology for the 2008 Annual Report and Accounts adopted the CFO Forum Principles and Guidance with the exception of the use of an adjusted risk-free yield due to market conditions for UK and Netherlands immediate annuities and for immediate annuities, deferred annuities and all other contracts in the US

Following a review the scope of business using adjusted swap rates has been increased to cover all contracts that contain features similar to immediate annuity contracts. Prior period results have been restated to include the effect of adjusting the risk free rates on paid-up and single premium group deferred annuity business in the Netherlands and immediate annuities in France and Spain. At 31 December 2008, this increased the embedded value by £467 million (30 June 2008: £152 million, 31 December 2007: £141 million), and increased total earnings by £234 million in 2008 (six months to 30 June 2008: £nil). The impact of these changes by country at 31 December 2008 was the Netherlands (£352 million), France (£48 million) and Spain (£67 million).

The reference rate for these products has been increased above the swap curve to estimate the additional returns available through replicating portfolios where backing assets can be held to maturity in the current market. Due to the limited availability of CDS assets, particularly at the long durations, this is a material area of judgement and sensitivity analysis has been provided on page 120 on the additions to the swap curves.

Further details regarding the adjustments can be found on page 115.

New business premiums

New business premiums include:

  • premiums arising from the sale of new contracts during the period;

  • non-contractual additional premiums, including future Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) rebate premiums; and

  • expected renewals on new contracts and expected future contractual alterations to new contracts.

The group's definition of new business under MCEV includes contracts that meet the definition of 'non-participating investment' contracts under IFRS.

For products sold to individuals, premiums are considered to represent new business where a new contract has been signed, or where underwriting has been performed. Renewal premiums include contractual renewals, non-contractual variations that are reasonably predictable and recurrent single premiums that are pre-defined and reasonably predictable.

For group products, new business includes new contracts and increases to aggregate premiums under existing contracts. Renewal premiums are based on the level of premium received during the reporting period and allow for premiums expected to be received beyond the expiry of any guaranteed premium rates.

___________

Page 98 

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


B1 - Basis of preparation continued

The 2008 figures for present value of new business premiums and value of new business have been restated to reclassify premium increases on Spanish Annual Renewable Term (ART) business as other operating variances rather than new business. There is no impact on profit.

Life and pensions operating earnings

For life and pensions operating earnings, Aviva uses normalised investment returns. The use of asset risk premia reflects management's long-term expectations of asset returns in excess of the swap yield from investing in different asset classes. 

Within the 2008 results, the normalised investment returns were calculated by reference to the one year swap rate in the relevant currency plus an appropriate risk premium for bonds, equities and properties. For 2009, the group considers that the return over the typical duration of the assets held is more appropriate and is more consistent with the group's expectation of long-term rates of return.

Therefore, the expected return on equities and properties has been calculated by reference to the 10 year swap rate in the relevant currency plus an appropriate risk premium. The expected return on bonds has been calculated by reference to the swap rate consistent to the duration of the backing assets in the relevant currency plus an appropriate risk premium.

This assumption does not impact the embedded value as asset risk premia are not recognised until earned.

MCEV methodology

Overview

Under the MCEV methodology, profit is recognised as it is earned over the life of products defined within covered business. The total profit recognised over the lifetime of a policy is the same as under the IFRS basis of reporting, but the timing of recognition is different.

Calculation of the embedded value

The shareholders' interest in the life and related businesses is represented by the embedded value. The embedded value is the total of the net worth of the life and related businesses and the value of in-force covered business. Calculations are performed separately for each business and are based on the cash flows of that business, after allowing for both external and intra-group reinsurance. Where one life business has an interest in another, the net worth of that business excludes the interest in the dependent company. 

The embedded value is calculated on an after-tax basis applying current legislation and practice together with future known changes. Where gross results are presented, these have been calculated by grossing up post-tax results at the full rate of corporation tax for each country based on opening period tax rates, apart from the US, where a nil tax rate has been used in the post-tax results, and consequently for 'grossing up'.

Net worth 

The net worth is the market value of the shareholders' funds and the shareholders' interest in the surplus held in the non-profit component of the long-term business funds, determined on a statutory solvency basis and adjusted to add back any non-admissible assets, and consists of the required capital and free surplus.

Required capital is the market value of assets attributed to the covered business over and above that required to back liabilities for covered business, for which distribution to shareholders is restricted. Required capital is reported net of implicit items permitted on a local regulatory basis to cover minimum solvency margins which are assessed at a local entity level. The level of required capital for each business unit is set equal to the higher of:

  • The level of capital at which the local regulator is empowered to take action;

  • The capital requirement of the business unit under the group's economic capital requirements; and, 

  • The target capital level of the business unit.

This methodology reflects the level of capital considered by the directors to be appropriate to manage the business. The same definition of required capital is used for both existing and new business. 

The free surplus is the market value of any assets allocated to, but not required to support, the in-force covered business at the valuation date. The level of required capital across the business units expressed as a percentage of the EU minimum solvency margin (or equivalent) can be found on page 116.

Value of in-force covered business (VIF)

The value of in-force covered business consists of the following components:

  • present value of future profits;

  • time value of financial options and guarantees; 

  • frictional costs of required capital; and

  • cost of residual non-hedgeable risks.

Present value of future profits (PVFP)

This is the present value of the distributable profits to shareholders arising from the in-force covered business projected on a best estimate basis.

___________

Page 99 


B1 - Basis of preparation continued

Distributable profits generally arise when they are released following actuarial valuations. These valuations are carried out in accordance with any local statutory requirements designed to ensure and demonstrate solvency in long-term business funds. Future distributable profits will depend on experience in a number of areas such as investment return, discontinuance rates, mortality, administration costs, as well as management and policyholder actions. Releases to shareholders arising in future years from the in-force covered business and associated required capital can be projected using assumptions of future experience.

Future profits are projected using best estimate non-economic assumptions and market consistent economic assumptions. In principle, each cash flow is discounted at a rate that appropriately reflects the riskiness of that cash flow, so higher risk cash flows are discounted at higher rates. In practice, the PVFP is calculated using the 'certainty equivalent' approach, under which the reference rate is used for both the investment return and the discount rate. This approach ensures that asset cash flows are valued consistently with the market prices of assets without options and guarantees. Further information on the risk-free rates is given in note B12.

The PVFP includes the capitalised value of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the extent that they relate to covered business. This is referred to as the 'look through' into service company expenses. In addition, expenses arising in holding companies that relate directly to acquiring or maintaining covered business have been allowed for. Where external companies provide services to the life and related businesses, their charges have been allowed for in the underlying projected cost base.

Time value of financial options and guarantees (TVOG)

The PVFP calculation is based on a single (base) economic scenario. However, a single scenario cannot appropriately allow for the effect of certain product features. If an option or guarantee affects shareholder cash flows in the base scenario, the impact is included in the PVFP and is referred to as the intrinsic value of the option guarantee.

However, future investment returns are uncertain and the actual impact on shareholder profits may be higher or lower. The value of in-force business needs to be adjusted for the impact of the range of potential future outcomes. Stochastic modelling techniques can be used to assess the impact of potential future outcomes, and the difference between the intrinsic value and the total stochastic value is referred to as the time value of the option or guarantee.

Stochastic modelling typically involves projecting the future cash flows of the business under thousands of economic scenarios that are representative of the possible future outcomes for market variables such as interest rates and equity returns. Under a market consistent approach, the economic scenarios generated reflect the market's tendency towards risk aversion. Allowance is made, where appropriate, for the effect of management and/or policyholder actions in different economic conditions on future assumptions such as asset mix, bonus rates and surrender rates. 

Stochastic models are calibrated to market yield curves and volatility levels at the valuation date. Tests are performed to confirm that the scenarios used produce results that replicate the market price of traded instruments. 

Where evidence exists that persistency rates are linked to economic scenarios, dynamic lapse assumptions are set that vary depending on the individual scenarios. This cost is included in the TVOG. Dynamic lapses are modelled for parts of the US and French business. Asymmetries in non-economic assumptions that are linked to economic scenarios, but that have insufficient evidence for credible dynamic assumptions, are allowed for within mean best estimate assumptions.

Frictional costs of required capital

The additional costs to a shareholder of holding the assets backing required capital within an insurance company rather than directly in the market are called frictional costs. They are explicitly deducted from the PVFP. The additional costs allowed for are the taxation costs and any additional investment expenses on the assets backing the required capital. The level of required capital has been set out above in the net worth section.

Frictional costs are calculated by projecting forwards the future levels of required capital. Tax on investment return and investment expenses are payable on the assets backing required capital, up until the point that they are released to shareholders.

Cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (CNHR)

The cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (CNHR) covers risks not already allowed for in the time value of options and guarantees or the PVFP. The allowance includes the impact of both non-hedgeable financial and non-financial risks. The most significant risk not included in the PVFP or TVOG is operational risk. 

Aviva's methodology includes a cost of non-hedgeable risk equivalent to a charge of 2.5% applied to group-diversified capital. The cost has been calculated as a 1.5% charge applied to business unit-level capital, that is, allowing for diversification within a business unit, but not between business units. The charge was set so as to give an aggregate allowance that was in excess of the expected operational risk costs arising from the in-force covered business over its remaining lifetime.

The capital levels used are projected to be sufficient to cover non-hedgeable risks at the 99.5% confidence level one-year after the valuation date. The capital is equal to the capital from the ICA results for those risks considered. The capital has been projected as running off over the remaining life of the in-force portfolio in line with the drivers of the capital requirement.

In addition to the operational risk allowance, financial non-hedgeable risks and other product level asymmetries have been allowed for. These allowances are not material as significant financial non-hedgeable risks and product level asymmetries are either modelled explicitly and included in the TVOG or are included in the PVFP through the use of appropriate best estimate assumptions. Asymmetric risks allowed for in the TVOG or PVFP are described earlier in the Basis of preparation. No allowance has been made within the cost of non-hedgeable risk for symmetrical risks as these are diversifiable by investors.

___________

Page 100 

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


B1 - Basis of preparation continued

Participating business

Future regular bonuses on participating business are projected in a manner consistent with current bonus rates and expected future market-consistent returns on assets deemed to back the policies.

For with-profit funds in the UK and Ireland, for the purpose of recognising the value of the estate, it is assumed that terminal bonuses are increased to exhaust all of the assets in the fund over the future lifetime of the in-force with-profit policies. However, under stochastic modelling there may be some extreme economic scenarios when the total assets in the group's with-profit funds are not sufficient to pay all policyholder claims. The average additional shareholder cost arising from this shortfall has been included in the TVOG.

For profit sharing business in continental Europe, where policy benefits and shareholder value depend on the timing of realising gains, the apportionment of unrealised gains between policyholders and shareholders reflect contractual requirements as well as existing practice. Under certain economic scenarios where additional shareholder injections are required to meet policyholder payments, the average additional cost has been included in the TVOG.

The embedded value of the US spread-based products anticipates the application of management discretion allowed for contractually within the policies, subject to contractual guarantees. This includes the ability to change the crediting rates and indexed strategies available within the policy. Consideration is taken of the economic environment assumed in future projections and returns in excess of the reference rate are not assumed. Anticipated market and policyholder reaction to management action has been considered. The anticipated management action is consistent with current decision rules and has been approved and signed off by management and legal counsel.

Consolidation adjustments

The effect of transactions between group life companies such as loans and reinsurance arrangements have been included in the results split by territory in a consistent manner. No elimination is required on consolidation.

As the MCEV methodology incorporates the impact of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the group's life companies, the equivalent profits and losses have been removed from the relevant segment (non-insurance or fund management) and are instead included within the results of life and related businesses. In addition, the underlying basis of calculation for these profits has changed from the IFRS basis to the MCEV basis.

The capitalised value of the future profits and losses from such service companies are included in the embedded value and value of new business calculations for the relevant business, but the net assets (representing historical profits and other amounts) remain under non-insurance or fund management. In order to reconcile the profits arising in the financial period within each segment with the assets on the opening and closing statement of financial positions, a transfer of IFRS profits from life and related business to the appropriate segment is deemed to occur. An equivalent approach has been adopted for expenses within our holding companies.

The assessments of goodwill, intangibles and pension schemes relating to life insurance business utilise the IFRS measurement basis.

Exchange rates

The group's principal overseas operations during the period were located within the Eurozone and the United States

The results and cash flows of these operations have been translated at the average rates for that period and the assets and liabilities have been translated at the period end rates. Please refer to note A2 on page 54.

___________

Page 101 

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


B2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings 

Gross of tax and 
minority interests 

30 June 200
9

UK
£m

France
£m

Ireland
£m

Italy
£m

Nether-lands
£m

Poland
£m

Spain
£m

Other Europe
£m

Europe
£m

North America
£m

Asia
£m

Australia
£m

Asia Pacific
£m

Total
£m

Value of new business 

101

72

4

81

(34)

27

78

6

234

16

6

10

16

367

Earnings from existing 
business















- expected existing 
business contribution (reference rate)

41

81

12

6

43

33

22

10

207

36

8

8

16

300

- expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate)

153

153

5

4

116

3

55

(1)

335

111

2

-

2

601

Experience variances















- maintenance expense1

25

1

2

(3)

16

3

(1)

3

21

-

2

1

3

49

- project and other related expenses

(36)

(3)

(4)

(2)

(2)

(1)

(3)

(2)

(17)

(5)

1

-

1

(57)

- mortality/morbidity2

6

10

8

-

(6)

9

(4)

1

18

(4)

4

4

8

28

- lapses3

(17)

(18)

(22)

(3)

(6)

8

(35)

(10)

(86)

(8)

(24)

-

(24)

(135)

- other4

(5)

(13)

(5)

11

21

5

1

-

20

(74)

1

(2)

(1)

(60)


(27)

(23)

(21)

3

23

24

(42)

(8)

(44)

(91)

(16)

3

(13)

(175)

Operating assumption changes:















- maintenance expense

2

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

4

4

6

- project and other related expenses

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

- mortality/morbidity

(1)

-

6

-

1

-

-

-

7

-

(2)

-

(2)

4

- lapses5

1

-

-

-

(31)

-

-

-

(31)

-

(11)

-

(11)

(41)

- other6

-

-

(2)

-

116

-

-

1

115

-

2

-

2

117


2

-

4

-

86

-

-

1

91

-

(11)

4

(7)

86

Expected return on shareholders' net worth

68

34

9

29

39

5

13

4

133

47

4

3

7

255

Other operating variances7

7

60

5

(3)

56

-

28

3

149

1

17

(1)

16

173

Earnings before tax 
and minority interests

345

377

18

120

329

92

154

15

1,105

120

10

27

37

1,607

1.    Maintenance expense experience in the UK and Netherlands relates to profits from existing business administration and cost savings, respectively. Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer a wider range of products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes.  

2.    Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a number of our businesses.

3.    Lapse experience has been volatile, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In Poland, lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both Life and Pension products.

4.    In the Netherlands, favourable other experience variances arise from policy alterations on group business. In the USA, other experience reflects the cost of enhancing policyholder crediting rates.

5.    In the Netherlands, adverse lapse assumption changes have been made in the German business.

6.    Favourable other assumption changes in the Netherlands are in respect of revisions to investment and bonus strategies in Germany as this business is repositioned. 

7.    Other operating variances in France and the Netherlands relate to modelling refinements. In Spain, these reflect the impact of re-pricing actions on risk products.



___________

Page 102 

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


B2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued

Gross of tax and 
minority interests 

Restated
30 June 2008

UK
£m

France
£m

Ireland
£m

Italy
£m

Nether-lands
£m

Poland
£m

Spain
£m

Other Europe
£m

Europe
£m

North America
£m

Asia
£m

Australia
£m

Asia Pacific
£m

Total
£m

Value of new business 

73

69

8

35

(29)

31

116

19

249

(8)

26

6

32

346

Earnings from existing 
business















- expected existing 
business contribution (reference rate)

158

77

19

13

53

42

30

9

243

43

7

13

20

464

- expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate)

82

19

3

2

68

4

14

-

110

24

1

2

3

219

Experience variances















- maintenance expense

-

(1)

(4)

(1)

3

3

(1)

(4)

(5)

-

2

(1)

1

(4)

- project and other related expenses1

(27)

-

(5)

-

(1)

-

(1)

(3)

(10)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(2)

(40)

- mortality/morbidity2

11

17

2

1

(15)

10

(2)

1

14

1

2

2

4

30

- lapses3

(12)

5

-

(1)

18

14

(5)

(2)

29

(1)

(9)

1

(8)

8

- other4

33

13

(9)

11

2

2

2

1

22

(6)

-

1

1

50


5

34

(16)

10

7

29

(7)

(7)

50

(7)

(6)

2

(4)

44

Operating assumption changes:















- maintenance expense

-

-

(1)

-

(10)

-

-

-

(11)

(7)

(1)

-

(1)

(19)

- mortality/morbidity5

-

-

-

-

(120)

-

(2)

-

(122)

-

-

-

-

(122)

- lapses

-

-

-

-

18

-

-

-

18

-

-

-

-

18

- other6

22

(5)

-

12

(3)

-

-

-

4

-

-

-

-

26


22

(5)

(1)

12

(115)

-

(2)

-

(111)

(7)

(1)

-

(1)

(97)

Expected return on shareholders' net worth

78

51

15

30

74

8

11

3

192

28

7

4

11

309

Other operating variances7

(1)

(4)

12

(1)

(23)

-

11

-

(5)

1

-

-

-

(5)

Earnings before tax and minority interests

417

241

40

101

35

114

173

24

728

74

34

27

61

1,280

1.    Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer simpler products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes

2.    Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a range of businesses.

3.    Lapse experience has been volatile, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In the UK, lapse experience for non-profit pension and bond products was worse than expected. In Poland, lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both Life and Pension products. In the Netherlands, the positive lapse variance reflects better than expected persistency in the group pensions business.

4.    Other experience profits reflect an accumulation of small items.

5.    Mortality assumption changes in the Netherlands reflect the impact of using a new industry mortality basis.

6.    Other operating assumption changes in the UK reflect the distribution of a special bonus to with-profit policyholders.

7.    Other operating variances reflect the impact of various small modelling changes. In Spain, these reflect the impact of re-pricing actions on risk products.

___________

Page 103 


B2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued

Gross of tax and 
minority interests 

Restated
31 December 2008

UK
£m

France
£m

Ireland
£m

Italy
£m

Nether-lands
£m

Poland
£m

Spain
£m

Other Europe
£m

Europe
£m

North America
£m

Asia
£m

Australia
£m

Asia Pacific
£m

Total
£m

Value of new business 

204

135

15

71

(47)

65

202

29

470

55

30

13

43

772

Earnings from existing 
business















- expected existing 
business contribution (reference rate)

338

188

39

30

107

91

60

19

534

86

9

25

34

992

- expected existing business contribution (in excess of 
reference rate)

210

38

8

6

78

8

22

-

160

53

4

2

6

429

Experience variances















- maintenance expense

20

2

(2)

(6)

(35)

6

(1)

(1)

(37)

-

(2)

-

(2)

(19)

- project and other related expenses1

(62)

(10)

(7)

-

(26)

-

(6)

(6)

(55)

(14)

-

-

-

(131)

- mortality/morbidity2

18

42

2

2

19

20

4

1

90

-

5

2

7

115

- lapses3

(23)

(8)

(7)

(15)

(11)

26

(24)

(10)

(49)

(5)

(4)

3

(1)

(78)

- other4

7

(45)

(42)

(15)

34

(8)

2

(1)

(75)

(31)

(1)

(11)

(12)

(111)


(40)

(19)

(56)

(34)

(19)

44

(25)

(17)

(126)

(50)

(2)

(6)

(8)

(224)

Operating assumption changes:















- maintenance expense5

(15)

(12)

(2)

(9)

(167)

4

-

(12)

(198)

(5)

(3)

-

(3)

(221)

- project and other related expenses

13

-

-

-

9

-

-

-

9

-

-

-

-

22

- mortality/morbidity6

54

-

25

11

(79)

4

(1)

-

(40)

-

1

(1)

-

14

- lapses7

(73)

108

7

(9)

-

(10)

(19)

(20)

57

-

(12)

1

(11)

(27)

- other8

16

(1)

23

3

(28)

24

-

13

34

1

(10)

6

(4)

47


(5)

95

53

(4)

(265)

22

(20)

(19)

(138)

(4)

(24)

6

(18)

(165)

Expected return on shareholders' net worth

166

107

34

63

204

13

23

8

452

61

14

8

22

701

Other operating variances9

10

148

(15)

(1)

138

(2)

24

3

295

-

-

-

-

305

Earnings before tax and 
minority interests

883

692

78

131

196

241

286

23

1,647

201

31

48

79

2,810

1.    Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer a wider range of products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes. Expenses in the Netherlands reflect an overrun in Belgium following the acquisition of Swiss Life Belgium, and restructuring within the intermediary division.

2.    Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a number of our businesses.

3.    Lapse experience has been volatile, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In Poland, lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both life and pension products.

4.    In France, other experience profits include the reduction in value arising from reductions in fees and commissions received. In Ireland, certain statutory provisions were increased following a review. The movement in the Netherlands reflects changes on group pension scheme contribution. In the USA, other experience reflects the cost of enhancing policyholder crediting rates.

5.    In the Netherlands, expense assumptions have been updated following a review of expense allocations.

6.    In UK, favourable mortality assumption changes are in respect of mortality and morbidity changes across a range of products. In the Netherlands, mortality assumption changes reflect the impact of using a new industry mortality basis.

7.    In the UK, an additional lapse provision has been set up in anticipation of higher short-term recession related withdrawals (pre tax £50 million) and higher mortgage and income protection claims (pre tax £20 million) to reflect rising unemployment. In France, persistency assumptions have been weakened following continual favourable experience on AFER products.

8.    In the UK, other operating assumption changes include the impact of the with-profit special distribution. In Ireland, other assumption changes reflect a reduction in the assumed future tax charges. In Poland, other assumptions reflect a change in the pattern of future mortality charging structure. 

9.    Other operating variances in France are mainly in respect of the impact of the mutualisation of funds following the merger of two legal entities. In the Netherlands, changes are mainly in respect of aligning the profit sharing policy for existing group business in Belgium, following the acquisition of Swiss Life Belgium.

___________

Page 104 

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


B2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued

Net of tax and 
minority interests 

30 June 200
9

UK
£m

France
£m

Ireland
£m

Italy
£m

Nether-lands
£m

Poland
£m

Spain
£m

Other Europe
£m

Europe
£m

North America
£m

Asia
£m

Australia
£m

Asia Pacific
£m

Total
£m

Value of new business 

72

40

3

25

(28)

19

26

5

90

16

5

7

12

190

Earnings from existing 
business















- expected existing 
business contribution (reference rate)

30

50

8

2

31

23

9

8

131

36

5

5

10

207

- expected existing 
business contribution 
(in excess of reference rate)

110

93

3

1

85

2

21

-

205

111

1

-

1

427

Experience variances















- maintenance expense1

18

1

1

(1)

14

2

(1)

3

19

-

2

-

2

39

- project and other related expenses

(26)

(2)

(3)

(1)

(2)

-

(2)

(2)

(12)

(5)

1

-

1

(42)

- mortality/
morbidity
2

4

6

5

-

(7)

6

(1)

2

11

(4)

3

3

6

17

- lapses3

(13)

(11)

(16)

(1)

(4)

6

(12)

(8)

(46)

(8)

(19)

-

(19)

(86)

- other4

(3)

(8)

(3)

6

18

4

1

(1)

17

(74)

-

(1)

(1)

(61)


(20)

(14)

(16)

3

19

18

(15)

(6)

(11)

(91)

(13)

2

(11)

(133)

Operating assumption 
changes:















- maintenance expense

2

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

(1)

3

2

4

- project and other related expenses

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

- mortality/morbidity

(1)

-

4

-

-

-

-

-

4

-

-

-

-

3

- lapses5

1

-

-

-

(22)

-

-

-

(22)

-

(10)

-

(10)

(31)

- other6

-

-

(1)

-

82

-

-

-

81

-

2

-

2

83


2

-

3

-

60

-

-

-

63

-

(9)

3

(6)

59

Expected return on shareholders' net worth

49

19

6

10

27

4

5

2

73

47

2

2

4

173

Other operating variances7

6

36

4

(1)

40

(1)

8

4

90

1

9

1

10

107

Earnings after tax and minority interests

249

224

11

40

234

65

54

13

641

120

-

20

20

1,030

1.    Maintenance expense experience in the UK and Netherlands relates to profits from existing business administration and cost savings, respectively. Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer a wider range of products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes.  

2.    Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a number of our businesses.

3.    Lapse experience has been volatile, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In Poland lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both Life and Pension products.

4.    In the Netherlands, favourable other experience variances arise from policy alterations on group business. In the USA, other experience reflects the cost of enhancing policyholder crediting rates.

5.    In the Netherlands, adverse lapse assumption changes have been made in the German business.

6. Favourable other assumption changes in the Netherlands are in respect of revisions to investment and bonus strategies in Germany as this business is repositioned.

7.    Other operating variances in France and the Netherlands relate to modelling refinements. In Spain, these reflect the impact of re-pricing actions on risk products.


___________

Page 105 


B2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued

Net of tax and 
minority interests 

Restated
30 June 2008

UK
£m

France
£m

Ireland
£m

Italy
£m

Nether-lands
£m

Poland
£m

Spain
£m

Other Europe
£m

Europe
£m

North America
£m

Asia
£m

Australia
£m

Asia Pacific
£m

Total
£m

Value of new business 

53

38

6

12

(25)

22

38

16

107

(5)

21

4

25

180

Earnings from existing 
business















- expected existing 
business contribution (reference rate)

114

47

12

4

36

30

12

7

148

28

6

10

16

306

- expected existing 
business contribution 

(in excess of reference rate)

59

12

2

1

48

3

6

-

72

16

1

1

2

149

Experience variances















- maintenance expense

-

-

(3)

-

1

2

(1)

(4)

(5)

-

2

(1)

1

(4)

- project and other related expenses1

(20)

-

(3)

-

(1)

-

(1)

(2)

(7)

(1)

-

-

-

(28)

- mortality/morbidity2

 8

11

1

-

(11)

8

(1)

1

9

1

2

1

 3

21

- lapses3

(9)

3

-

-

14

10

(3)

(2)

22

(1)

(8)

1

(7)

5

- other4

24

6

(6)

4

4

1

1

-

10

(3)

(1)

-

(1)

30


3

20

(11)

4

7

21

(5)

(7)

29

(4)

(5)

1

(4)

24

Operating assumption changes:















- maintenance expense

-

-

(1)

-

(4)

-

-

-

(5)

(5)

-

-

-

(10)

- mortality/morbidity5

-

-

-

-

(89)

-

(1)

-

(90)

-

-

-

-

(90)

- lapses

-

-

-

-

7

-

-

-

7

-

-

-

-

7

- other6

16

(3)

-

4

(1)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

16


16

(3)

(1)

4

(87)

-

(1)

-

(88)

(5)

-

-

-

(77)

Expected return on shareholders' net worth

56

31

10

10

53

5

5

4

118

18

4

3

7

199

Other operating variances7

(1)

(1)

7

(1)

(17)

-

5

-

(7)

-

1

-

1

(7)

Earnings after tax and minority interests

300

144

25

34

15

81

60

20

379

48

28

19

47

774

1.    Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer simpler products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes.

2.    Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a range of businesses.

3.    Lapse experience has been volatile, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In the UK, lapse experience for non-profit pension and bond products was worse than expected. In Poland, lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both Life and Pension products. In the Netherlands, the positive lapse variance reflects better than expected persistency in the group pensions business.

4.    Other experience profits reflect an accumulation of small items.

5.    Mortality assumption changes in the Netherlands reflect the impact of using a new industry mortality basis.

6.    Other operating assumption changes in the UK reflect the distribution of a special bonus to with-profit policyholders.

7.    Other operating variances reflect the impact of various small modelling changes. In Spain, these reflect the impact of re-pricing actions on risk products.

___________

Page 106 

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


B2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued

Net of tax and 
minority interests 

Restated

31 December 2008

UK
£m

France
£m

Ireland
£m

Italy
£m

Nether-lands
£m

Poland
£m

Spain
£m

Other Europe
£m

Europe
£m

North America
£m

Asia
£m

Australia
£m

Asia Pacific
£m

Total
£m

Value of new business 

147

79

10

21

(48)

46

68

24

200

36

24

9

33

416

Earnings from existing 
business















- expected existing 
business contribution (reference rate)

244

115

26

9

74

64

23

15

326

56

10

18

28

654

- expected existing 
business contribution 
(in excess of reference rate)

151

24

5

2

56

6

9

-

102

35

2

1

3

291

Experience variances















- maintenance expense

15

1

(1)

(2)

(22)

4

-

(1)

(21)

-

(3)

-

(3)

(9)

- project and other related expenses1

(45)

(7)

(5)

-

(18)

-

(4)

(5)

(39)

(9)

-

-

-

(93)

- mortality/morbidity2

13

26

1

1

12

15

-

1

56

-

4

1

5

74

- lapses3

(17)

(4)

(5)

(5)

(1)

18

(10)

(9)

(16)

(2)

(3)

2

(1)

(36)

- other4

5

(29)

(27)

(6)

29

(6)

1

(1)

(39)

(20)

(1)

(8)

(9)

(63)


(29)

(13)

(37)

(12)

-

31

(13)

(15)

(59)

(31)

(3)

(5)

(8)

(127)

Operating assumption changes:















- maintenance expense5

(11)

(8)

(1)

(3)

(109)

3

-

(10)

(128)

(3)

(3)

-

(3)

(145)

- project and other related expenses

9

-

-

-

4

-

-

-

4

-

-

-

-

13

- mortality/morbidity6

39

-

16

4

(77)

3

(1)

-

(55)

-

1

(1)

-

(16)

- lapses7

(53)

65

4

(3)

-

(8)

(7)

(16)

35

-

(10)

1

(9)

(27)

- other8

12

-

15

1

(13)

18

-

11

32

-

(8)

4

(4)

40


(4)

57

34

(1)

(195)

16

(8)

(15)

(112)

(3)

(20)

4

(16)

(135)

Expected return on shareholders' net worth

119

66

23

20

145

10

10

6

280

39

8

6

14

452

Other operating variances9

7

98

(11)

(1)

104

(1)

8

2

199

-

3

-

3

209

Earnings after tax and 
minority interests

635

426

50

38

136

172

97

17

936

132

24

33

57

1,760

1.    Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer a wider range of products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes. Expenses in the Netherlands reflect an overrun in Belgium following the acquisition of Swiss Life Belgium, and restructuring within the intermediary division.

2.    Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a number of our businesses.

3.    Lapse experience has been volatile, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In Poland, lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both life and pension products.

4.    In France, other experience profits include the reduction in value arising from reductions in fees and commissions received. In Ireland, certain statutory provisions were increased following a review. The movement in the Netherlands reflects changes on group pension scheme contribution. In the USA, other experience reflects the cost of enhancing policyholder crediting rates.

5.    In the Netherlands, expense assumptions have been updated following a review of expense allocations.

6.    In the UK, favourable mortality assumption changes are in respect of mortality and morbidity changes across a range of products. In the Netherlands, mortality assumption changes reflect the impact of using a new industry mortality basis.

7.    In the UK, an additional lapse provision has been set up in anticipation of higher short-term recession related withdrawals (pre tax £50 million)  and higher mortgage and income protection claims (pre tax £20 million) to reflect rising unemployment. In France, persistency assumptions have been weakened following continual favourable experience on AFER products.

8.    In the UK, other operating assumption changes include the impact of the with-profit special distribution. In Ireland, other assumption changes reflect a reduction in the assumed future tax charges. In Poland, other assumptions reflect a change in the pattern of future mortality charging structure. 

9.    Other operating variances in France are mainly in respect of the impact of the mutualisation of funds following the merger of two legal entities. In the Netherlands, changes are mainly in respect of aligning the profit sharing policy for existing group business in Belgium, following the acquisition of Swiss Life Belgium.


___________

Page 107 

B3 - Geographical analysis of fund management operating earnings

The summarised consolidated income statement - MCEV basis, includes earnings from the group's fund management operations as analysed below. As explained in note B10, this excludes the proportion of the results of Aviva Investors fund management businesses and other fund management operations within the group that arise from the provision of fund management services to our Life businesses. These results are included within the Life MCEV operating earnings.


6 months
 2009
£m

Restated
 6 months

 
2008
£m

Full year
 
2008
 
£m

United Kingdom

1

13

34

Europe

5

6

9

North America

(5)

1

(3)

Asia Pacific

(1)

-

1

Aviva Investors

-

20

41

United Kingdom

(12)

(8)

(18)

Netherlands

6

6

2

Other Europe

1

3

4

Asia Pacific

1

9

13

Total

(4)

30

42

B4 - Analysis of other operations and regional costs 

Where subsidiaries provide services to our life business, that proportion has been excluded. These results are included within the Life MCEV operating return. 


6 months 2009


Restated
 
6 months 2008


Full year 2008


Regional costs
£m

Other operations
£m

Total
£m


Regional 
c
osts
£m

Other 
operat
ions
£m

Total
£m


Regional 
c
osts
£m

Other 
operat
ions
£m

Total
£m

United Kingdom

-

(36)

(36)


-

(33)

(33)


-

(12)

(12)

Europe

(11)

(29)

(40)


(12)

(1)

(13)


(28)

(88)

(116)

North America

(9)

1

(8)


(5)

1

(4)


(14)

2

(12)

Asia Pacific

(15)

-

(15)


(9)

2

(7)


(23)

-

(23)

Total

(35)

(64)

(99)


(26)

(31)

(57)


(65)

(98)

(163)




___________

Page 108

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


B5 - Segmentation of condensed consolidated statement of financial position


30 June 2009


Restated
 30 June 2008


Restated
31 December 2008


Life and related businesses
£m

General business and other
£m

Group
£m


Life and 
related businesses

£m

General business and other
£m

Group
£m


Life and 
related businesses

£m

General business and other
£m

Group
£m

Total assets before acquired value of in-force long-term business

286,846

42,835

329,681


282,765

43,564

326,329


305,562

46,634

352,196

Acquired additional value of 
in-force long-term business

1,811

-

1,811


1,806

-

1,806


2,366

-

2,366

Total assets included in the IFRS statement of financial position 

288,657

42,835

331,492


284,571

43,564

328,135


307,928

46,634

354,562

Liabilities of the long-term business

(272,753)

-

(272,753)


(270,179)

-

(270,179)


(291,347)

-

(291,347)

Liabilities of the general insurance and other businesses

-

(46,000)

(46,000)


-

(43,282)

(43,282)


-

(48,769)

(48,769)

Net assets on a statutory IFRS basis

15,904

(3,165)

12,739


14,392

282

14,674


16,581

(2,135)

14,446

Additional value of in-force 
long-term business1

2,569

-

2,569


6,714

-

6,714


3,203

-

3,203

Net assets on an MCEV basis2

18,473

(3,165)

15,308


21,106

282

21,388


19,784

(2,135)

17,649

Equity capital, capital reserves, shares held by employee trusts and other reserves



7,168




6,771




8,675

IFRS basis retained earnings



2,926




5,244




3,806

Additional MCEV basis retained earnings



1,305




5,526




898

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders 
of Aviva plc on an 
MCEV basis



11,399




17,541




13,379

Preference share capital and direct capital instruments



1,190




1,190




1,190

Minority interests



2,719




2,657




3,080

MCEV basis total equity



15,308




21,388




17,649

1.    The analysis between the group's and minority interests' share of the additional value of in-force long-term business is as follows:


30 June
 
2009

31 December 2008

Movement in period

Group's share included in shareholders' funds

1,305

898

407

Minority interests' share

719

876

(157)

Movements in AFS securities

545

1,429

(884)

Additional value of in-force long-term business

2,569

3,203

(634)

Additional value of in-force long-term business includes £69 million (30 June 2008: £nil; 31 December 2008: £nil) of assets classified as held for sale in the condensed consolidated statement of financial position - MCEV basis.

2.    Analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis is made up as follows:


30 June
 2009

Restated
 
30 June
 
2008

31 December
 2008

Embedded value

14,263

16,729

14,556

Minority interests

2,090

2,022

2,367


16,353

18,751

16,923

Goodwill and intangible assets allocated to long-term business3

2,579

2,495

2,947

Notional allocation of IAS19 pension fund deficit to long-term business4

(459)

(140)

(86)

Long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis

18,473

21,106

19,784

3.    Goodwill and intangible assets includes amounts related to associated undertakings and joint ventures.

4.    The value of the Aviva Staff Pension Schemes deficit has been notionally allocated between segments, based on current funding and the Life proportion has been included within the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis. The pension fund deficit notionally allocated to long-term business is net of the proportion of funding borne by the UK with-profit funds.

___________

Page 109


B6 - Free surplus emergence


Existing business


New business


Total business

30 June 2009

Transfer
 from 

VIF to net 

worth 

£m

Return on net worth
£m

Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on net worth 
£m

Release of required capital to free surplus 
£m

Total existing business surplus generation 
£m


Impact on 
net worth 

£m

Reduction in free surplus from required capital 
£m

Total new business surplus generation 
£m


Total free surplus generation 
£m

United Kingdom

76

49

180

3

308


(77)

(62)

(139)


169

Europe

319

73

(76)

143

459


(130)

(193)

(323)


136

North America

99

47

(75)

170

241


(191)

(277)

(468)


(227)

Asia Pacific

46

4

18

18

86


(30)

(30)

(60)


26

Total

540

173

47

334

1,094


(428)

(562)

(990)


104



Existing business


New business


Total business

Restated
30 June 2008

Transfer
 from 

VIF to net 

worth 

£m

Return on net worth
£m

Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on net worth 
£m

Release of required capital to 
free surplus 
£m

Total 
existing business surplus generation 
£m


Impact on 
net worth 

£m

Reduction 
in free surplus 
from required capital 
£m

Total new business surplus generation 
£m


Total free surplus generation 
£m

United Kingdom

208

56

125

29

418


(135)

(81)

(216)


202

Europe

284

118

17

221

640


(175)

(230)

(405)


235

North America

109

18

(1)

90

216


(53)

(174)

(227)


(11)

Asia Pacific

40

7

(4)

(1)

42


(31)

(26)

(57)


(15)

Total

641

199

137

339

1,316


(394)

(511)

(905)


411



Existing business


New business


Total business

31 December 2008

Transfer
 from 

VIF to net 

worth 

£m

Return on net worth
£m

Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on net worth 
£m

Release of required capital to free surplus 
£m

Total 
existing business surplus generation 
£m


Impact on 
net worth 

£m

Reduction 
in free surplus 
from required capital 
£m

Total new business surplus generation 
£m


Total free surplus generation 
£m

United Kingdom

403

119

736

85

1,343


(147)

(159)

(306)


1,037

Europe

619

280

(92)

325

1,132


(438)

(422)

(860)


272

North America

194

39

(24)

197

406


(118)

(475)

(593)


(187)

Asia Pacific

73

14

1

(12)

76


(55)

(53)

(108)


(32)

Total

1,289

452

621

595

2,957


(758)

(1,109)

(1,867)


1,090







___________

Page 110

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 

B7 - Segmental analysis of life and related business embedded value


Net worth



30 June 2009

Free 
surplus 
£m

Required 
capital1 
£m
 

VIF 
£m

Total Embedded value 
£m

United Kingdom

1,401

1,546

2,090

5,037

France2

(195)

1,449

1,106

2,360

Ireland

125

218

486

829

Italy

231

230

148

609

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

679

1,580

66

2,325

Poland

138

109

617

864

Spain

120

203

305

628

Other Europe

42

25

151

218

Europe

1,140

3,814

2,879

7,833

North America3

(455)

1,376

(358)

563

Asia

105

156

216

477

Australia

26

258

69

353

Asia Pacific

131

414

285

830

Total

2,217

7,150

4,896

14,263

1.    Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.

2.    France and USA have a positive surplus on a statutory basis.

3.    Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £819 million at 30 June 2009 has been included within non-covered business. 


Net worth



Restated 
30 June 2008

Free surplus 
£m

Required 
capital1 
£m
 

VIF 
£m

Total Embedded value 
£m

United Kingdom

931

1,395 

3,450

5,776

France2

(58)

1,260 

1,149

2,351

Ireland

156

205 

502

863

Italy

217

227 

157

601

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

516

1,936 

1,004

3,456

Poland

69

134 

933

1,136

Spain

83

191 

379

653

Other Europe

35

26 

150

211

Europe

1,018

3,979 

4,274

9,271

North America3

(305)

1,039 

240

974

Asia

110

66 

228

404

Australia

17

215 

72

304

Asia Pacific

127

281 

300

708

Total

1,771

6,694 

8,264

16,729

1.    Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.

2.    France and USA have a positive surplus on a statutory basis.

3.    Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £356 million at 30 June 2008 has been included within non-covered business. 




___________

Page 111


B7 - Segmental analysis of life and related business embedded value continued

Restated
31 December 2008

Free surplus 
£m

Required 
capital1 
£m
 

VIF 
£m

Total Embedded value 
£m

United Kingdom

1,357

1,477 

2,053

4,887

France2

(92)

1,567 

1,092

2,567

Ireland

135

252 

603

990

Italy

261

235 

149

645

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) 2

(333)

2,284 

511

2,462

Poland

115

134 

979

1,228

Spain

143

225 

354

722

Other Europe

43

34 

159

236

Europe

272

4,731 

3,847

8,850

North America23

(362)

1,528 

(1,102)

64

Asia

72

159 

193

424

Australia

9

253 

69

331

Asia Pacific

81

412 

262

755

Total

1,348

8,148 

5,060

14,556

1.    Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.

2.    FranceNetherlands and Aviva USA have a positive surplus on a statutory basis.

3.    Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £1,128 million at 31 December 2008 has been included within non-covered business. 

The shareholders' net worth is the market value of the shareholders' funds and the shareholders' interest in the surplus held in the non-profit component of the long-term business funds, determined on a statutory solvency basis and adjusted to add back any non-admissible assets. This is split between required capital, net of implicit items, and free surplus.

B8 - Risk allowance within present value of in-force (VIF)

Within the VIF in the tables on page 110, there are additional allowances for risks not included within the basic present value of future profits calculation. 

30 June 2009

PVFP 
£m

Frictional costs 
£m

Non-hedgeable risks 
£m

Time value of financial options and guarantees 
£m 

VIF 
£m

United Kingdom

2,518

(197)

(157)

(74)

2,090

France

1,775

(170)

(124)

(375)

1,106

Ireland

516

(11)

(19)

-

486

Italy

195

(22)

(10)

(15)

148

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

710

(175)

(167)

(302)

66

Poland

689

(17)

(46)

(9)

617

Spain

368

(16)

(30)

(17)

305

Other Europe

159

(3)

(3)

(2)

151

Europe

4,412

(414)

(399)

(720)

2,879

North America

105

(8)

(33)

(422)

(358)

Asia

289

(17)

(27)

(29)

216

Australia

135

(31)

(24)

(11)

69

Asia Pacific

424

(48)

(51)

(40)

285

Total

7,459

(667)

(640)

(1,256)

4,896




___________

Page 112

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


B8 - Risk allowance within present value of in-force (PVIF) continued

Restated 
30 June 2008

PVFP 
£m

Frictional 
costs 
£m

Non-hedgeable risks 
£m

Time value of financial options and guarantees 
£m 

VIF 
£m

United Kingdom

3,893

(200)

(154)

(89)

3,450

France

1,726

(150)

(133)

(294)

1,149

Ireland

530

(10)

(17)

(1)

502

Italy

200

(24)

(7)

(12)

157

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

1,669

(306)

(76)

(283)

1,004

Poland

1,029

(19)

(69)

(8)

933

Spain

430

(20)

(26)

(5)

379

Other Europe

158

(4)

(3)

(1)

150

Europe

5,742

(533)

(331)

(604)

4,274

North America

516

(110)

(27)

(139)

240

Asia

256

(10)

(9)

(9)

228

Australia

130

(34)

(18)

(6)

72

Asia Pacific

386

(44)

(27)

(15)

300

Total

10,537

(887)

(539)

(847)

8,264


Restated
31 December 2008

PVFP 
£m

Frictional 
costs 
£m

Non-hedgeable risks 
£m

Time value of financial options and guarantees 
£m 

VIF 
£m

United Kingdom

2,470

(176)

(165)

(76)

2,053

France

1,827

(174)

(147)

(414)

1,092

Ireland

637

(10)

(24)

-

603

Italy

196

(22)

(12)

(13)

149

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

1,208

(246)

(132)

(319)

511

Poland

1,074

(14)

(73)

(8)

979

Spain

422

(18)

(32)

(18)

354

Other Europe

169

(4)

(4)

(2)

159

Europe

5,533

(488)

(424)

(774)

3,847

North America

(864)

(15)

(43)

(180)

(1,102)

Asia

262

(20)

(23)

(26)

193

Australia

132

(27)

(26)

(10)

69

Asia Pacific

394

(47)

(49)

(36)

262

Total

7,533

(726)

(681)

(1,066)

5,060


___________

Page 113

B9 - Implied discount rates (IDR)

In the valuation of a block of business, the implied discount rate is the rate of discount such that a traditional embedded value for the business equates to the MCEV. 

The cash flows projected are the expected future cash flows including expected investment cash flows from equities, bonds and properties earning a risk premium in excess of risk free, statutory reserves and required capital. The risk premiums used are consistent with those used in the expected existing business contribution within operating earnings. As the risk premiums are positive, a discount rate higher than risk-free is required to give a value equal to the market-consistent embedded value.

Average derived risk discount rates are shown below for the embedded value.

30 June 2009

Total in-force
 business
 
%

United Kingdom

6.2%

France

7.0%

Ireland

4.7%

Italy

4.9%

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

13.5%

Poland

7.5%

Spain

5.3%

Other Europe

11.7%

Europe

8.2%

North America

21.4%

Asia

7.3%

Australia

8.8%

Asia Pacific

8.1%

Total

8.6%

B10 - Analysis of fund management and service company business within embedded value

Aviva's MCEV methodology incorporates the impact of earnings arising from subsidiary undertakings providing administration, fund management and other services where these arise in relation to covered business. The principal subsidiaries of the Aviva group providing such services include Aviva Life Services Limited (UK) and Aviva Investors. The following table provides an analysis of the elements within the life and other related business embedded value:


6 months
 2009


Restated
 6 months

 2008


Full year
 2008


Fund management £m

Other operations 
£m

Total 
£m


Total
£m


Total
£m

United Kingdom

150

(153)

(3)


(2)


(8)

France

151

63

214


170


212

Netherlands

114

(135)

(21)


38


(23)

United States1

195

-

195


91


209

Other

53

-

53


39


69

Total

663

(225)

438


336


459

1.    Following the establishment of Aviva Investors the fund management portion of the US business has been separately identified. 

The 'look-through' value attributable to fund management is based on the level of after-tax profits expected to be earned in the future over the outstanding term of the covered business in respect of services provided to the group's life operations. The MCEV basis income statement excludes the actual statutory basis profits arising from the provision of fund management services to the group's life businesses. The MCEV income statement records the experience profit or loss compared to the assumed profitability, the expected return on the in-force value and the effect on the in-force value of changes to economic assumptions. 

In the United KingdomAviva Life Services Limited (UK) (ALS) is the main provider of administration services to the UK Life business. ALS incurs substantially all of the UK businesses' operating expenditure, comprising acquisition, maintenance and project costs. Costs are recharged to the UK Life companies (the product companies) on the basis of predetermined Management Services Agreements (MSAs).

___________

Page 114 


Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 

B11 - Summary of minority interest in life and related businesses' MCEV results 

30 June 2009

France 
£m 

Ireland
 £m

Italy 
£m

Nether-lands 
£m 

Poland
 £m

Spain
 £m

Europe

 £m

Asia Pacific
 
£m

Total
 £m

Share-holders' interest
 £m

Group 
£m

Value of new business, net of tax

7

1

29

6

3

28

74

-

74

190

264

Life MCEV operating earnings after tax

22

5

41

10

9

54

141

1

142

1,030

1,172

Life MCEV (loss)/
earnings after tax

14

(11)

40

(1)

(24)

1

19

4

23

1,047

1,070

Closing covered businesses' embedded value

270

271

697

178

119

539

2,074

16

2,090

14,263

16,353


Restated 
30 June 2008

France 
£m 

Ireland
 £m

Italy 
£m

Nether-lands 
£m 

Poland
 £m

Spain 
£m

Europe 

£m

Asia Pacific
 
£m

Total 
£m

Share-holders' interest 
£m

Group 
£m

Value of new business, net of tax

7

1

12

3

3

43

69

-

69

180

249

Life MCEV operating earnings after tax

14

9

35

10

12

66

146

-

146

774

920

Life MCEV (loss)/
earnings after tax

(7)

(6)

27

(18)

8

22

26

-

26

(2,062)

(2,036)

Closing covered businesses' embedded value

243

279

620

159

169

540

2,010

12

2,022

16,729

18,751


Restated
31 December 2008

France
 £m

Ireland
 
£m

Italy
 £m

Nether-lands 
£m 

Poland
 
£m

Spain 
£m

Europe 

£m

Asia Pacific
 
£m

Total 
£m

Share-holders' interest 
£m

Group 
£m

Value of new business, net of tax

9

3

27

12

7

73

131

-

131

416

547

Life MCEV operating earnings after tax

29

17

50

5

24

102

227

-

227

1,760

1,987

Life MCEV (loss)/
earnings after tax

18

(21)

(30)

(22)

20

(36)

(71)

-

(71)

(6,651)

(6,722)

Closing covered businesses' embedded value

304

323

727

204

177

617

2,352

15

2,367

14,556

16,923

There are no minority interests in the United Kingdom or North America.

B12 - Principal economic assumptions

(a) Economic assumptions - Deterministic calculations

Economic assumptions are derived actively, based on market yields on risk-free fixed interest assets at the end of each reporting period. 

In setting the risk-free rate we have, wherever possible used the mid-price swap yield curve for an AA-rated bank. 

The curve is extrapolated if necessary to get rates suitable to the liabilities. For markets in which there is no reliable swap yield curve the relevant government bond yields are used. 

Required capital is shown as a multiple of the EU statutory minimum solvency margin or equivalent.

The adjustments made to swap rates to derive a risk-free rate for immediate annuity type contracts and all US contracts are shown below the reference rate table.

The principal economic assumptions used are as follows:

Reference rate and expense inflation


United Kingdom


Eurozone (excluding 
the 
Netherlands)


30 June
 2009

30 June
 2008

31 December
 2008 

31 December 2007


30 June
 2009

30 June
 2008

31 December 2008 

31 December 2007

Reference rate - term 1 year

1.6%

6.4%

2.8%

5.7%


1.4%

5.4%

2.5%

4.8%

Reference rate - term 5 years

3.8%

6.1%

3.2%

5.1%


2.9%

5.1%

3.3%

4.6%%

 

Reference rate - term 10 years

4.3%

5.7%

3.5%

5.0%


3.7%

5.1%

3.8%

4.7%

Reference rate - term 15 years

 

4.6%

5.3%

3.8%

4.9%


4.2%

5.1%

3.9%

4.9%

Reference rate - term 20 years

4.6%

5.0%

3.8%

4.8%


4.2%

5.1%

3.9%

4.9%

Expense inflation

3.4%

4.4%

2.4%

3.6%


2.1%

2.9%

2.1%

2.9%


___________

Page 115


B12 - Principal economic assumptions continued


Netherlands1


Poland


30 June
 2009

30 June
 2008

31 December
2008

31 December
 2007


30 June
 2009

30 June
 2008

31 December 2008 

31 December 2007

Reference rate - term 1 year

1.4%

5.1%

2.5%

4.7%


4.5%

6.9%

4.4%

6.2%

Reference rate - term 5 years

2.9%

4.7%

3.3%

4.6%


5.5%

6.4%

4.3%

5.8%

Reference rate - term 10 years

3.7%

4.8%

3.8%

4.7%


5.6%

5.9%

4.2%

5.5%

Reference rate - term 15 years

4.1%

5.0%

4.0%

4.9%


5.5%

5.7%

4.1%

5.4%

Reference rate - term 20 years

4.3%

5.1%

3.9%

5.0%


5.4%

5.7%

4.0%

5.4%

Expense inflation

2.5%

2.9%

2.5%

3.0%


3.2%

5.9%

2.9%

4.7%



United States


30 June
 2009

30 June
 2008

31 December 2008 

31 December 2007

Reference rate - term 1 year

1.6%

3.0%

1.3%

4.2%

Reference rate - term 5 years

3.0%

4.0%

2.2%

4.2%

Reference rate - term 10 years

3.8%

4.6%

2.6%

4.7%

Reference rate - term 15 years

4.1%

4.8%

2.9%

4.9%

Reference rate - term 20 years

4.1%

5.0%

2.9%

5.0%

Expense inflation

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

3.5%

1.    The economic assumptions used in the Netherlands differ from those in the Eurozone as the Dutch bank swap rate is used in the Netherlands.

For service companies, expense inflation relates to the underlying expenses rather than the fees charged to the life company. 

In current markets, the following adjustments are made to the swap rate for immediate annuity type contracts and all US contracts. The risk-free rate is taken as the swap yield curve for the currency of the liability, adjusted by:


New business


Embedded value


First half 2009

First half
 
2008

Third quarter 2008

Fourth quarter 2008


30 June 2009

30 June
 
2008

31 December 2008

UK 

1.50%

0.55%

0.85%

1.45%


1.25%

0.50%

1.50%

France

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a


0.50%

0.35%

1.00%

Netherlands 

1.50%

0.30%

0.45%

0.75%


0.40%

0.25%

0.80%

Spain

1.00%

0.35%

0.55%

0.95%


0.50%

0.35%

1.00%

US immediate annuities

3.00%

0.55%

0.65%

2.00%


1.50%

0.50%

3.00%

US deferred annuities and all other contracts

2.50%

0.55%

0.65%

1.50%


1.25%

0.50%

2.50%

Risk premium - used for operating profit, Implied Discount Rates (IDR), Internal Rates of Return (IRR) and payback period

For life and pensions operating earnings, Aviva uses normalised investment returns. For 2008, the normalised investment returns were expressed as one year swap returns plus an asset risk premium. For 2009, the normalised investment returns are expressed as a swap rate based on the typical duration of the assets held plus an asset risk premium. More detail is given in Note B1 - Basis of Preparation.

The use of asset risk premia only impacts operating earnings as expected returns reflect management's long-term expectations of asset returns in excess of the reference rate from investing in different asset classes. This assumption does not impact the embedded value or value of new business as asset risk premia are not recognised until earned. The asset risk premia set out in the table below are added to the ten year swap rate to calculate expected returns.


All territories


30 June
 2009

30 June
 2008

31 December 2008 

31 December 2007

Equity risk premium

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

Property risk premium

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

Future returns on corporate fixed interest investments are calculated from prospective yields less an adjustment for credit risk. 

___________

Page 116

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued


B12 - Principal economic assumptions continued

Required capital and tax


Tax rates1


Required capital
(% EU minimum or equivalent)


30 June
2009

30 June
2008

31 December 
2008 

31 December 
2007 


30 June
 2009

30 June
 2008

31 December
 2008 

United Kingdom

28.0%

28.0%

28.0% 

28.0% 


100%/110%

100%/110%

100%/110%

France

34.4%

34.4%

34.4% 

34.4% 


110%

110%

110%

Ireland

12.5%

12.5%

12.5% 

12.5% 


150%

150%

150%

Italy

32.4%

32.4%

32.4% 

32.4% 


115%/184%

115%/184%

115%/184%

Netherlands

25.5%

25.5%

25.5% 

25.5% 


132%

193%

168%

Poland

19.0%

19.0%

19.0% 

19.0% 


150%

150%

150%

Spain

30.0%

30.0%

30.0% 

30.0% 


110%/125%

110%/125%

110%/125%

United States

0.0%

35.0%

0.0% 

35.0% 


325%

325%

325%

1.    The required capital in the United Kingdom under MCEV is 100% for unit-linked and other non-participating business and 110% for annuity business.

2.    Required capital in Italy under MCEV is 184% of the EU minimum for Eurovita and 115% for other companies.

3.    Required capital in the Netherlands is 132%. This capital level is the aggregate capital required for the Netherlands.

4.    Required capital in Spain is 125% of the EU minimum for Aviva Vida y Pensiones and 115% for bancassurance companies.

5.    Current tax legislation and rates have been assumed to continue unaltered except where changes in future tax rates have been announced. 

Other economic assumptions

Required capital relating to with-profit business is assumed to be covered by the surplus within the with-profit funds and no effect has been attributed to shareholders. Bonus rates on participating business have been set at levels consistent with the economic assumptions. The distribution of profit between policyholders and shareholders within the with-profit funds assumes that the shareholder interest in conventional with-profit business in the United Kingdom and Ireland continues at the current rate of one-ninth of the cost of bonus.

(b) Economic Assumptions - Stochastic calculations

The calculation of time value of options and guarantees allows for expected management and policyholder actions in response to varying future investment conditions. The management actions modelled include changes to asset mix, bonus rates and rates of interest and other guarantees granted to policyholders. Modelled policyholder actions are described under 'Other assumptions'.

The embedded value of the US spread based products anticipates the application of management discretion allowed for contractually within the policies, subject to contractual guarantees. This includes the ability to change the crediting rates and indexed strategies available within the policy. Consideration is taken of the economic environment assumed in future projections and returns in excess of the reference rate are not assumed. Anticipated market and policyholder reaction to management action has been considered. The anticipated management action is consistent with current decision rules and has been approved and signed off by management and legal counsel.

Model - United Kingdom, Europe (excluding Delta Lloyd) and North America

Swap rates are generated by a model, the LIBOR Market Model (LMM), that projects a full swap curve at monthly intervals. Forward rates are assumed to have a log-normal distribution which guarantees non-negative interest rates. The model is calibrated to at-the-money swaptions of a variety of terms and tenors. Swaption volatilities are taken from Bloomberg. Tests have been performed to ensure that sufficient scenarios have been used that the result converges to the stochastic value of the business being valued.

The total annual return on equities is calculated as the return on one-year swaps plus an excess return. This excess return is modelled using a log-normal model where volatility varies by time horizon. This allows the model to capture the term structure of implied volatilities. The model is calibrated to at-the-money options of a variety of terms. Option volatilities are taken from a survey of investment banks.

The model also generates property total returns and real yield curves, although these are not significant asset classes for Aviva outside the UK. In the absence of liquid market data, the volatilities of these asset classes are based on historic data.

Assumptions for correlations between asset classes have been set based on historic data.

___________

Page 117


B12 - Principal economic assumptions continued

Model - Netherlands

In the Netherlands, yield curves are based on De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) yield curve data.

The interest rate model used is a short rate G2++ model. The model is calibrated to the DNB yield curve and the swaption implied volatilities. Swaption implied volatilities are taken from Bloomberg. The equity model is a Heston model.

Asset classes

The significant asset classes for UK participating business are equities, property and long-term fixed rate bonds. The most significant assumption is the distribution of future long-term interest rates, since this is the most important factor in the cost of guaranteed annuity options.

For many businesses, including US, France and Netherlands, the most important assets are fixed rate bonds of various durations. 

Summary statistics

Swaption implied volatilities

The implied volatility is that determined by Black-Scholes' formula to reproduce the market price of the option. The following table sets out the model swaption implied volatilities.


30 June 20091
Swap length


30 June 2008
Swap length


31 December 2008
Swap length

Option length

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years


10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years


10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

UK sterling















10 years

n/a

n/a

11.8%

n/a


n/a

n/a

11.8%

n/a


n/a

n/a

11.8%

n/a

15 years

n/a

n/a

11.9%

n/a


n/a

n/a

11.9%

n/a


n/a

n/a

11.9%

n/a

20 years

n/a

n/a

12.1%

n/a


n/a

n/a

12.1%

n/a


n/a

n/a

12.1%

n/a

25 years

n/a

n/a

12.4%

n/a


n/a

n/a

12.4%

n/a


n/a

n/a

12.4%

n/a

Euro















10 years

11.7%

11.7%

11.7%

11.8%


11.3%

11.0%

10.5%

10.1%


11.7%

11.7%

11.7%

11.8%

15 years

10.9%

10.9%

10.4%

10.9%


10.8%

10.7%

10.3%

9.9%


10.9%

10.9%

10.4%

10.9%

20 years

10.5%

10.4%

10.4%

10.3%


10.4%

9.9%

9.5%

9.2%


10.5%

10.4%

10.4%

10.3%

25 years

10.0%

10.0%

9.9%

9.5%


9.9%

9.4%

9.1%

8.8%


10.0%

10.0%

9.9%

9.5%

Netherlands















10 years

11.6%

11.6%

11.7%

11.7%


11.3%

11.2%

11.3%

11.4%


11.6%

11.6%

11.7%

11.7%

15 years

10.8%

10.7%

10.6%

10.8%


10.8%

10.6%

10.7%

10.8%


10.8%

10.7%

10.6%

10.8%

20 years

10.5%

10.3%

10.2%

10.3%


10.8%

10.5%

10.4%

10.5%


10.5%

10.3%

10.2%

10.3%

25 years

10.0%

9.8%

9.8%

9.7%


10.1%

10.3%

10.1%

10.2%


10.0%

9.8%

9.8%

9.7%

US dollar















10 years

15.2%

14.4%

14.0%

14.0%


18.3%

15.7%

13.6%

11.9%


15.2%

14.4%

14.0%

14.0%

15 years

13.9%

13.0%

12.8%

12.7%


15.7%

13.2%

11.3%

9.8%


13.9%

13.0%

12.8%

12.7%

20 years

13.3%

12.4%

12.1%

12.1%


13.4%

11.3%

9.6%

8.4%


13.3%

12.4%

12.1%

12.1%

25 years

12.9%

11.9%

11.6%

11.7%


12.0%

10.2%

8.8%

8.0%


12.9%

11.9%

11.6%

11.7%

1. Volatilities are calibrated to end August 2008.

___________

Page 118 

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


B12 - Principal economic assumptions continued

Equity implied volatilities

The implied volatility is that determined by the Black-Scholes' formula to reproduce the market price of the option. The following tables set out the model equity implied volatilities. 

30 June 2009
Option length

Country

UK

France

Italy

Ireland

Netherlands

Spain

US

5 years

25.8%

24.9%

24.4%

24.5%

26.1%

26.3%

24.6%

10 years

27.2%

26.3%

n/a

26.2%

26.8%

28.8%

27.3%

15 years

27.7%

n/a

n/a

27.0%

27.1%

n/a

28.9%


30 June 2008
Option length

Country

UK

France

Italy

Ireland

Netherlands

Spain

US

5 years

25.8%

26.0%

22.4%

24.6%

24.0%

24.8%

23.8%

10 years

27.2%

27.5%

24.4%

25.9%

25.5%

26.0%

25.9%

15 years

27.7%

29.5%

24.6%

26.9%

26.5%

27.3%

28.0%


30 December 2008
Option length

Country

UK

France

Italy

Ireland

Netherlands

Spain

US

5 years

25.8%

24.9%

24.4%

24.5%

26.1%

26.3%

24.6%

10 years

27.2%

26.3%

n/a

26.2%

26.8%

28.8%

27.3%

15 years

27.7%

n/a

n/a

27.0%

27.1%

n/a

28.9%

1.    Volatilities are calibrated to end August 2008.

Property implied volatilities

Best estimate levels of volatility have been used, in the absence of meaningful option prices from which implied levels of volatility can be derived.

For the UK and the Netherlands, model property implied volatility is 15% for 30 June 2009 (30 June 2008: 15%).

Demographic assumptions

Assumed future mortality, morbidity and lapse rates have been derived from an analysis of Aviva's recent operating experience with a view to giving a best estimate of future experience. We have anticipated future changes in experience where that is appropriate, eg we have allowed for improvements in future policyholder longevity. 

We have set the assumptions based on a best estimate of shareholder outcomes. In particular, where the policyholder behaviour varies with economic experience, we have set assumptions which are dynamic, ie vary depending on the economic assumptions. For example, surrender and option take up rate assumptions that vary according to the investment scenario under consideration have been used in the calculation of the time value of options and guarantees, based on our assessment of likely policyholder behaviour in different investment scenarios.

Additionally, where demographic experience is not driven by economic scenarios but is asymmetric on a stand-alone basis, the best estimate assumption considers the weighted-average expected experience, not simply the median or most likely outcome. 

Expense assumptions

Management expenses and operating expenses of holding companies attributed to life and related businesses have been included in the MCEV calculations and split between expenses relating to the acquisition of new business, the maintenance of business in-force and project expenses. Future expense assumptions include an allowance for maintenance expenses and a proportion of recurring project expenses. Certain expenses of an exceptional nature, when they occur, are identified separately and are generally charged as incurred. No future productivity gains have been anticipated.

Where subsidiary companies provide administration, investment management or other services to our life businesses, the value of profits or losses arising from these services have been included in the embedded value and value of new business. 

Non-hedgeable risk

A charge of 2.5% has been applied to the group-diversified capital required on a 1-in-200 one-year basis over the remaining lifetime of in-force business.

___________

Page 119 


B12 - Principal economic assumptions continued

(c) Other assumptions

Valuation of debt

Borrowings in the MCEV consolidated statement of financial position are valued on an IFRS basis, consistent with the primary financial statements. At 30 June 2009 the market value of the group's external debt, subordinated debt, preference shares including General Accident plc preference shares of £250 million (classified as minority interests) and direct capital instrument was £5,422 million (30 June 2008: £5,753 million; 31 December 2008: £4,911 million).


30 June
 2009

Restated
 30 June

 2008

31 December 2008 

Borrowings per summarised consolidated statement of financial position - MCEV basis

14,325

13,373

15,201

Add: amount included within held for sale

-

13

-

Less: Securitised mortgage funding

(6,807)

(7,620)

(7,785)

Borrowings excluding non-recourse funding - MCEV basis

7,518

5,766

7,416

Less: Operational financing by businesses

(1,694)

(1,134)

(1,891)

External debt and subordinated debt - MCEV basis

5,824

4,632

5,525

Add: Preference shares (including General Accident plc) and direct capital instrument

1,440

1,440

1,440

External debt, subordinated debt, preference shares and direct capital instrument - MCEV basis

7,264

6,072

6,965

Effect of marking these instruments to market

(1,842)

(319)

(2,054)

Market value of external debt, subordinated debt, preference shares and direct capital instrument

5,422

5,753

4,911

Other

It has been assumed that there will be no changes to the methods and bases used to calculate the statutory technical provisions and current surrender values, except where driven by varying future investment conditions under stochastic economic scenarios.

B13 - Sensitivity analysis

(a) Economic assumptions

The following tables show the sensitivity of the embedded value and the value of new business to:

  • 50 basis point reduction in the adjustment to risk free rates for immediate annuity type contracts and all US contracts;

  • one and two percentage point increase and decrease in the risk-free rate, including all consequential changes (including assumed investment returns for all asset classes, market values of fixed interest assets, risk discount rates);

  • 10% increase and decrease in market values of equity and property assets; 

  • 25% increase in equity and swaption volatilities;

  • 50 basis point increase and decrease in credit spreads; and

  • decrease in the level of required capital to 100% EU minimum (or equivalent).

In each sensitivity calculation, all other assumptions remain unchanged except where they are directly affected by the revised economic conditions. For example, future bonus rates are automatically adjusted to reflect sensitivity changes to future investment returns. Some of the sensitivity scenarios may have consequential effects on valuation bases, where the basis for certain blocks of business is actively updated to reflect current economic circumstances. Consequential valuation impacts on the sensitivities are allowed for where an active valuation basis is used. Where businesses have a target asset mix, the portfolio is re-balanced after a significant market movement otherwise no re-balancing is assumed.

For new business, the sensitivities reflect the impact of a change immediately after inception of the policy. 

In general, the magnitude of the sensitivities will reflect the size of the embedded values, though this will vary as the sensitivities have different impacts on the different components of the embedded value. In addition, other factors can have a material impact, such as the nature of the options and guarantees, as well as the types of investments held. 

The credit spread sensitivities assume that the change relates to credit risk and not liquidity risk; in practice, credit spread movements may be partially offset due to changes in liquidity risk.

___________

Page 120 

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


B13 - Sensitivity analysis continued

Sensitivities will also vary according to the current economic assumptions, mainly due to the impact of changes to both the intrinsic cost and time value of options and guarantees. Options and guarantees are the main reason for the asymmetry of the sensitivities where the guarantee impacts to different extents under the different scenarios. This can be seen in the sensitivity of a 1%-2% movement in the interest rate for the Netherlands and US, where there is a significant amount of business with investment return guarantees.

Embedded value




Interest Rates

30 June 2009
Embedded value

(net of tax and minority interest)

As reported on page 110 
£m

50bp
reduction in 

adjustment to risk-free rates
*
£m

1% 
increase
£m

1%
 decrease
£m

2%
 increase
£m

2%
 decrease
£m

United Kingdom

5,037

(588)

(145)

160

(300)

325

France

2,360

(21)

(55)

(30)

(190)

(245)

Ireland

829

-

(30)

35

(55)

45

Italy

609

-

15

(30)

15

(100)

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

2,325

(280)

85

(480)

5

(1,245)

Poland

864

-

(30)

40

(55)

85

Spain

628

(34)

(15)

15

(30)

30

Other Europe

218

-

(5)

5

(10)

10

Europe

7,833

(335)

(35)

(445)

(320)

(1,420)

North America

563

(695)

-

(125)

(35)

(475)

Asia

477

-

10

(35)

20

(80)

Australia

353

-

(10)

10

(20)

20

Asia Pacific

830

-

-

(25)

-

(60)

Total

14,263

(1,618)

(180)

(435)

(655)

(1,630)

* 40bps in respect of the Netherlands


The sensitivity to adjusting risk-free rates by 50bp only reflects a reduction in future investment returns and discount rates. The interest rate sensitivities include consequential impacts such as the change in market values of fixed assets as well as the change in future investment returns and discount rates.


Equity/property


As reported on page 110
£m

Market values

Volatility

25% 
increase

£m

30 June 2009
Embedded value

(net of tax and minority interest)

10% 
increase

£m

10% decrease
£m

United Kingdom

5,037

295

(290)

(25)

France

2,360

135

(140)

(120)

Ireland

829

10

(10)

-

Italy

609

5

(5)

(5)

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

2,325

375

(375)

(50)

Poland

864

10

(10)

-

Spain

628

10

(10)

(5)

Other Europe

218

-

-

-

Europe

7,833

545

(550)

(180)

North America

563

-

-

-

Asia

477

10

(10)

-

Australia

353

5

(5)

-

Asia Pacific

830

15

(15)

-

Total

14,263

855

(855)

(205)

___________

Page 121


B13 - Sensitivity analysis continued


As reported on page 110
£m

Swaption implied volatilities
25% increase

£m

Corporate bond 
credit spreads

EU minimum
capital (or equivalent)

£m

30 June 2009
Embedded value

(net of tax and minority interest)

50bps 
increase

£m

50bps
decrease

£m

United Kingdom

5,037

-

(605)

655

10

France

2,360

(100)

(135)

135

15

Ireland

829

-

-

-

5

Italy

609

(5)

-

-

5

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

2,325

(40)

(120)

135

15

Poland

864

-

-

-

5

Spain

628

-

(55)

60

-

Other Europe

218

-

-

-

-

Europe

7,833

(145)

(310)

330

45

North America

563

(145)

(510)

475

5

Asia

477

-

(10)

10

10

Australia

353

-

(5)

5

5

Asia Pacific

830

-

(15)

15

15

Total

14,263

(290)

(1,440)

1,475

75

Value of new business

30 June 2009
Value of new business

(net of tax and minority interest)



Risk free rates

As reported on page 104
£m

50bp
reduction in 

adjustment to risk-free rates

£m

1%
 increase
£m

1%
 decrease
£m

2%
 increase
£m

2%
 decrease
£m

United Kingdom

72

(34)

(4)

4

(8)

7

France

40

-

1

(4)

6

(8)

Ireland

3

-

-

-

-

-

Italy

25

-

(2)

2

(4)

2

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

(28)

(6)

38

(49)

52

(111)

Poland

19

-

(1)

1

(2)

3

Spain

26

(1)

(1)

1

(2)

2

Other Europe

5

-

(1)

1

-

(1)

Europe

90

(7)

34

(48)

50

(113)

North America

16

(98)

(22)

13

(47)

5

Asia

5

-

3

(5)

6

(12)

Australia

7

-

(1)

1

(2)

2

Asia Pacific

12

-

2

(4)

4

(10)

Total

190

(139)

10

(35)

(1)

(111)


___________

Page 122 

Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued 


B13 - Sensitivity analysis continued

30 June 2009
Value of new business

(net of tax and minority interest)

Equity/property

As reported on page 104
£m

Market values

Volatility 
25%

 increase
£m

10%
 
increase
£m

10% decrease 
£m

United Kingdom

72

2

(3)

(2)

France

40

3

(2)

(2)

Ireland

3

-

-

-

Italy

25

-

-

-

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

(28)

-

-

(2)

Poland

19

-

-

-

Spain

26

-

-

-

Other Europe

5

-

-

-

Europe

90

3

(2)

(4)

North America

16

-

-

-

Asia

5

-

-

-

Australia

7

-

-

-

Asia Pacific

12

-

-

-

Total

190

5

(5)

(6)



As reported on page 104
£m

Swaption implied volatilities
25% increase

£m

Corporate bond 
credit spreads

EU minimum
capital (or equivalent)

£m

30 June 2009
Value of new business

(net of tax and minority interest)

50bps 
increase

£m

50bps
decrease

£m

United Kingdom

72

-

(15)

17

-

France

40

-

(9)

8

-

Ireland

3

-

-

-

-

Italy

25

-

-

-

1

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

(28)

-

-

-

-

Poland

19

-

-

-

-

Spain

26

-

(3)

3

-

Other Europe

5

-

-

(1)

1

Europe

90

-

(12)

10

2

North America

16

(4)

(38)

25

1

Asia

5

-

-

-

1

Australia

7

-

-

-

-

Asia Pacific

12

-

-

-

1

Total

190

(4)

(65)

52

4

(b) Non-economic assumptions

The following tables below show the sensitivity of the embedded value and the value of new business to the following changes in non-economic assumptions:

  • 10% decrease in maintenance expenses (a 10% sensitivity on a base expense assumption of £10 pa would represent an expense assumption of £9 pa). Where there is a 'look through' into service company expenses the fee charged by the service company is unchanged while the underlying expense decreases;

  • 10% decrease in lapse rates (a 10% sensitivity on a base assumption of 5% pa would represent a lapse rate of 4.5% pa); and

  • 5% decrease in both mortality and morbidity rates disclosed separately for life assurance and annuity business. 

No future management actions are modelled in reaction to the changing non-economic assumptions. In each sensitivity calculation all other assumptions remain unchanged. No changes to valuation bases have been included.

___________

Page 123 


B13 - Sensitivity analysis continued

Embedded value

30 June 2009
Embedded value

(net of tax)

As reported
on page 
110
£m

10% decrease in maintenance expenses
£m

10% decrease in lapse rates
£m

5%
 decrease in mortality/
morbidity rates - life assurance

£m

5%
 decrease in mortality/
morbidity rates -annuity business

£m

United Kingdom

5,037

170

100

65

(195)

France

2,360

40

35

25

-

Ireland

829

15

25

5

(5)

Italy

609

5

-

-

-

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

2,325

150

-

35

(90)

Poland

864

25

35

10

-

Spain

628

10

45

15

(5)

Other Europe

218

5

15

-

-

Europe

7,833

250

155

90

(100)

North America

563

55

90

50

(10)

Asia

477

15

5

10

-

Australia

353

5

15

15

-

Asia Pacific

830

20

20

25

-

Total

14,263

495

365

230

(305)

Value of new business

30 June 2009
Value of new business

(net of tax)

As reported
on page 
104
£m

10% decrease in maintenance expenses
£m

10% decrease in lapse rates
£m

5%
 decrease in mortality/
morbidity rates - life assurance

£m

5%
 decrease in mortality/
morbidity rates -annuity business

£m

United Kingdom

72

10

8

4

(5)

France

40

1

2

1

-

Ireland

3

-

1

-

-

Italy

25

1

1

1

-

Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany)

(28)

9

3

1

(1)

Poland

19

1

2

1

-

Spain

26

1

4

1

-

Other Europe

5

1

2

-

-

Europe

90

14

15

5

(1)

North America

16

5

4

6

-

Asia

5

4

1

2

-

Australia

7

-

1

1

-

Asia Pacific

12

4

2

3

-

Total

190

33

29

18

(6)

__________________
Page 124 

Statement of directors' responsibilities in respect of  the Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) basis


When compliance with the European Insurance CFO Forum Market Consistent Embedded Value Principles (MCEV Principles), published in June 2008, is stated, those principles require the directors to prepare supplementary information in accordance with the methodology contained in the MCEV Principles and to disclose and explain any non-compliance with the guidance included in the MCEV Principles.

In preparing this supplementary information, the directors have done so in accordance with these MCEV Principles and have also fully complied with all the guidance included therein, with the exception of the use of an adjusted risk-free yield due to current market conditions for all contracts that contain features similar to immediate annuities and are backed by appropriate assets, including paid up group deferred annuities in the Netherlands, and deferred annuities and all other contracts in the US. Specifically, the directors have:

  • determined assumptions on a realistic basis, having regard to past, current and expected future experience and to relevant external data, and then applied them consistently;

  • made estimates that are reasonable and consistent; and,

  • provided additional disclosures when compliance with the specific requirements of the MCEV Principles is insufficient to enable users to understand the impact of particular transactions, other events and conditions and the group's financial position and financial performance.

Information on the directors can be found on page 84 of Aviva plc's 2008 Annual Report and Accounts.

By order of the Board





Philip Scott

Chief Financial Officer

5 August 2009

______________________

Page 125 

Independent Review report to Aviva plc 


Introduction 

We have been engaged by the Company to review the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report for the six months ended 30 June 2009 which comprises the Condensed Consolidated Income Statement - MCEV Basis, the Condensed Statement of Comprehensive Income - MCEV Basis, the Condensed Statement of Changes in Equity - MCEV Basis, the Condensed Consolidated Statement of Financial Position - MCEV Basis, the Reconciliation of Shareholders' Equity on IFRS and MCEV bases, the Reconciliation of IFRS Total Equity to MCEV Net Worth, the Group MCEV Analysis of Earnings and the related notes B1 to B13 on pages 91 to 123; and Analysis of Life and Pension Earnings on pages 23 to 24. We have read the other information contained in the half-yearly financial report and considered whether it contains any apparent misstatements or material inconsistencies with the information in the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements. 

We have reported separately on the condensed financial statements of Aviva plc for the six months ended 30 June 2009. The information contained in the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements should be read in conjunction with the condensed set of financial statements prepared on an IFRS basis. This information is described within the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report as having being reviewed.

This report is made solely to the Company in accordance with guidance contained in International Standards on Review Engagements (UK and Ireland) 2410, 'Review of Interim Financial Information Performed by the Independent Auditor of the Entity' issued by the Auditing Practices Board for use in the United Kingdom (ISRE 2410). To the fullest extent permitted by law, we do not accept or assume responsibility to anyone other than the Company, for our work, for this report, or for the conclusions we have formed.

Directors' Responsibilities 

The Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report is the responsibility of, and has been approved by, the directors. The directors are responsible for preparing the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report in accordance with the Basis of Preparation set out on pages 97 to 100.

Our Responsibility 

Our responsibilities, as independent auditors, in relation to the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report are set out in our engagement letter with you dated 5 August 2009. We report to you our opinion as to whether the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report have been properly prepared, in all material respects, in accordance with the Basis of Preparation set out on pages 97 to 100. 

Scope of Review 

We conducted our review in accordance with ISRE 2410. A review of interim financial information consists of making enquiries, primarily of persons responsible for financial and accounting matters, and applying analytical and other review procedures. A review is substantially less in scope than an audit conducted in accordance with International Standards on Auditing (UK and Ireland) and consequently does not enable us to obtain assurance that we would become aware of all significant matters that might be identified in an audit. Accordingly, we do not express an audit opinion. 

Conclusion 

Based on our review, nothing has come to our attention that causes us to believe that the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report for the six months ended 30 June 2009 is not prepared, in all material respects, in accordance with the Basis of Preparation set out on pages 97 to 100.




Ernst & Young LLP

London

5 August 2009

__________________

Page 126 

MCEV Glossary 

Definitions of group key performance indicators and other terms

Asymmetric risk

Risks that will cause shareholder profits to vary where the variation above and below the average are not equal in distribution.

CFO Forum

The CFO Forum www.cfoforum.nl is a high-level group formed by the Chief Financial Officers of major European listed and non-listed insurance companies. Its aim is to discuss issues relating to proposed new accounting regulations for their businesses and how they can create greater transparency for investors. The Forum was created in 2002, the Market Consistent Embedded Value principles were launched in June 2008 and CFO Forum members across Europe have agreed to adopt these for their 2009 published accounts. The principles are a further development of the European Embedded Value principles first launched in May 2004.

Cost of non-hedgeable risks

This is the cost of undertaking those risks for which a deep and liquid market in which to hedge that risk does not exist. This can include both financial risks and non-financial risks such as mortality, persistency and expense.

Covered business

The contracts to which the MCEV methodology has been applied.

EU solvency

The excess of assets over liabilities and the worldwide minimum solvency margins, excluding goodwill and the additional value of in-force long-term business, and excluding the surplus held in the group's life funds. The group solvency calculation is determined according to the UK Financial Services Authority application of EU Insurance Group's Directive rules.

Financial options and guarantees

Features of the covered business conferring potentially valuable guarantees underlying, or options to change, the level or nature of policyholder benefits and exercisable at the discretion of the policyholder, whose potential value is impacted by the behaviour of financial variables.

Free surplus

The amount of any capital and surplus allocated to, but not required to support, the in-force covered business.

Frictional costs

The additional taxation and investment costs incurred by shareholders through investing the Required Capital in the Company rather than directly.

Funds under management 

Represents all assets actively managed or administered by or on behalf of the group including those funds managed by third parties.

Funds under management 
by Aviva

Represents all assets actively managed or administered by the fund management operations of the group.

Group MCEV

A measure of the total consolidated value of the group with covered life business included on an MCEV basis and non-covered business (including pension schemes and goodwill) included on an IFRS basis.

Gross risk-free yields

Gross of tax yields on risk-free fixed interest investments, generally swap rates under MCEV.

Holding company

A legal entity with a function of being a consolidating entity for primary financial reporting of covered business.

IFRS operating profit

From continuing operations on an IFRS basis, stated before tax attributable to shareholders' profits, impairment of goodwill and exceptional items. 

Implicit items

Amounts allowed by local regulators to be deducted from capital amounts when determining the EU required minimum margin.

Inherited estate

The assets of the long-term with-profit funds less the realistic reserves for non-profit policies, less asset shares aggregated across the with-profit policies and any additional amounts expected at the valuation date to be paid to in-force policyholders in the future in respect of smoothing costs and guarantees.

Life business

Subsidiaries selling life and pensions contracts that are classified as covered business under MCEV.

Life MCEV

The MCEV balance sheet value of covered business as at the reporting date. Excludes non-covered business including pension schemes and goodwill.

Life MCEV operating earnings

Operating earnings on the MCEV basis relating to the lines of business included in the embedded value calculations. From continuing operations and is stated before tax, impairment of goodwill and exceptional items.

Life MCEV earnings

Total earnings on the MCEV basis relating to the lines of business included in the embedded value calculations. From continuing operations.

Look-through basis 

Inclusion of the capitalised value of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the extent that they relate to covered business. 

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Long-term savings 

Includes life and pension sales calculated under MCEV and retail investment sales.

Market consistent

A measurement approach where economic assumptions are such that projected asset cash flows are valued consistently with current market prices for traded assets.

MCEV

Aviva's Market Consistent Embedded Value methodology which is in accordance with the MCEV Principles published by the CFO Forum in June 2008 with the exception of the use of an adjusted risk-free yield due to current market conditions for all contracts that contain features similar to immediate annuities and are backed by appropriate assets, including paid up group deferred annuities in the Netherlands, and deferred annuities and all other contracts in the US.

Net asset value per ordinary share

Net asset value divided by the number of ordinary shares in issue. Net asset value is based on equity shareholders' funds.

Net worth

The market value of the shareholders' funds and the shareholders' interest in the surplus held in the non-profit component of the long-term business funds, determined on a statutory solvency basis and adjusted to add back any non-admissible assets, and consists of the required capital and free surplus.

New business margin

New business margins are calculated as the value of new business divided by the present value of new business premiums (PVNBP), and expressed as a percentage. 

Present value of new business premiums (PVNBP)

Present value of new regular premiums plus 100% of single premiums, calculated using assumptions consistent with those used to determine the value of new business.

Required capital

The amount of assets, over and above the value placed on liabilities in respect of covered business, whose distribution to shareholders is restricted. 

Risk-free rate (reference rate in CFO Forum terminology)

The risk-free return that can be earned on investments in the currency of the liability being valued. 

In stable markets, including the period from 31 December 2006 to 30 June 2007, the risk-free rate is taken as the swap curve yield. 

In current markets, including the period from 1 July 2007, the risk-free rate is taken as swaps except for all contracts that contain features similar to immediate annuities and are backed by appropriate assets, including paid up group deferred annuities in the Netherlands, and deferred annuities and all other contracts in the US. The adjusted risk-free rate is taken as swaps plus the additional return available for products and where backing asset portfolios can be held to maturity.

Service companies

Companies providing administration or fund management services to the covered business.

Solvency cover

The excess of the regulatory value of total assets over total liabilities, divided by the regulatory value of the required minimum solvency margin.

Spread business

Contracts where a significant source of shareholder profits is the taking of credit spread risk that is not passed on to policyholders. The most significant spread business in Aviva are immediate annuities and US deferred annuities and life business.

Statutory basis

The valuation basis and approach used for reporting financial statements to local regulators.

Stochastic techniques

Techniques that incorporate the potential future variability in assumptions. 

Symmetric risks

Risks that will cause shareholder profits to vary where the variation above and below the average are equal and opposite. Financial theory says that investors do not require compensation for non-market risks that are symmetrical as the risks can be diversified away by investors.

Time value and intrinsic value

A financial option or guarantee has two elements of value, the time value and intrinsic value. The intrinsic value is the discounted value of the option or guarantee at expiry, assuming that future economic conditions follow best estimate assumptions. The time value is the additional value arising from uncertainty about future economic conditions. 

Value of new business

Is calculated using economic assumptions set at the start of each quarter and the same operating assumptions as those used to determine the embedded values at the end of the reporting period and is stated after the effect of any frictional costs. Unless otherwise stated, it is also quoted net of tax and minority interests.


 

End of part 4 of 5 

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