___________
Part 4 of 5
Page 91
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements
Condensed consolidated income statement - MCEV basis
For the six month period ended 30 June 2009
6 months 2009 |
|
|
6 months 2009 |
Restated |
Restated |
|
|
|
Operating profit before tax attributable to shareholders' profits |
|
|
|
|
1,806 |
|
Long-term business |
1,607 |
1,280 |
2,810 |
|
612 |
|
General insurance and health |
545 |
528 |
1,198 |
|
(5) |
|
Fund management1 |
(4) |
30 |
42 |
|
|
|
Other: |
|
|
|
|
(111) |
|
Other operations and regional costs2 |
(99) |
(57) |
(163) |
|
(52) |
|
Corporate centre |
(46) |
(71) |
(141) |
|
(357) |
|
Group debt costs and other interest |
(318) |
(201) |
(379) |
|
1,893 |
|
Operating profit before tax attributable to shareholders' profits |
1,685 |
1,509 |
3,367 |
|
|
|
Adjusted for the following: |
|
|
|
|
(32) |
|
Economic variances on long-term business |
(29) |
(4,086) |
(12,058) |
|
(140) |
|
Short-term fluctuation in return on investments on non-long-term business |
(125) |
(314) |
(819) |
|
58 |
|
Economic assumption changes on general insurance and health business |
52 |
6 |
(94) |
|
(6) |
|
Impairment of goodwill |
(5) |
(42) |
(66) |
|
(58) |
|
Amortisation and impairment of intangibles |
(52) |
(44) |
(108) |
|
22 |
|
Profit on the disposal of subsidiaries and associates |
20 |
9 |
7 |
|
(166) |
|
Integration and restructuring costs |
(148) |
(132) |
(326) |
|
(245) |
|
Exceptional items3 |
(218) |
(155) |
(754) |
|
1,326 |
|
Profit/(loss) before tax |
1,180 |
(3,249) |
(10,851) |
|
(467) |
|
Tax on operating profit |
(416) |
(453) |
(841) |
|
359 |
|
Tax on other activities |
320 |
1,341 |
4,252 |
|
(108) |
|
|
(96) |
888 |
3,411 |
|
1,218 |
|
Profit/(loss) for the period |
1,084 |
(2,361) |
(7,440) |
All profit is from continuing operations.
1. Excludes the proportion of the results of Aviva Investors fund management businesses and other fund management operations within the group that arises from the provision of fund management services to our life businesses. These results are included within the life MCEV operating earnings consistent with Aviva's MCEV methodology.
2. Excludes the proportion of the results of subsidiaries providing services to the Life business. These results are included within the life MCEV operating earnings consistent with Aviva's MCEV methodology.
3. Exceptional item of £218 million for the six month period to 30 June 2009 is in relation to legislation changes on pensions in Poland.
Earnings per share - MCEV basis
6 months 2009 |
|
|
6 months 2009 |
Restated |
Restated |
|
|
Operating earnings per share on an MCEV basis after tax, attributable to |
|
|
|
46.6c |
|
Basic (pence per share) |
41.4p |
33.9p |
83.4p |
46.3c |
|
Diluted (pence per share) |
41.2p |
33.6p |
82.7p |
|
|
Earnings after tax on an MCEV basis, attributable to ordinary |
|
|
|
43.9c |
|
Basic (pence per share) |
39.1p |
(91.6)p |
(272.5)p |
43.7c |
|
Diluted (pence per share) |
38.9p |
(91.6)p |
(272.5)p |
___________
Page 92
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
Condensed statement of comprehensive income - MCEV basis
For the six month period ended 30 June 2009
6 months |
|
|
6 months 2009 |
Restated |
Restated |
1,218 |
|
Profit/(loss) for the period |
1,084 |
(2,361) |
(7,440) |
|
|
Other comprehensive income |
|
|
|
(134) |
|
Fair value losses on AFS securities, owner-occupied properties and hedging instruments |
(121) |
(130) |
(278) |
(6) |
|
Fair value gains transferred to profit |
(5) |
(10) |
(8) |
(1,551) |
|
Actuarial losses on pension schemes |
(1,380) |
(690) |
(929) |
166 |
|
Actuarial gains on pension schemes transferred to unallocated divisible surplus and other movements |
148 |
71 |
78 |
17 |
|
Impairment losses |
15 |
74 |
81 |
(1,962) |
|
Foreign exchange rate movements |
(1,746) |
997 |
3,098 |
30 |
|
Aggregate tax effect - shareholder tax |
27 |
11 |
66 |
(3,440) |
|
Other comprehensive income for the period, net tax |
(3,062) |
323 |
2,108 |
(2,222) |
|
Total comprehensive (expense)/income for the period |
(1,978) |
(2,038) |
(5,332) |
|
|
Attributable to: |
|
|
|
(1,851) |
|
Equity shareholders of Aviva plc |
(1,648) |
(2,263) |
(5,985) |
(371) |
|
Minority interests |
(330) |
225 |
653 |
(2,222) |
|
|
(1,978) |
(2,038) |
(5,332) |
Condensed statement of changes in equity - MCEV basis
For the six month period ended 30 June 2009
30 June |
|
|
30 June |
Restated |
Restated |
20,765 |
|
Balance at 1 January |
17,650 |
23,848 |
23,848 |
(2,328) |
|
Total comprehensive (expense)/income for the period |
(1,978) |
(2,038) |
(5,332) |
(631) |
|
Dividends and appropriations |
(536) |
(563) |
(975) |
- |
|
Issues of share capital |
- |
31 |
20 |
216 |
|
Shares issued in lieu of dividends |
184 |
170 |
170 |
7 |
|
Capital contributions from minority shareholders |
6 |
7 |
36 |
(42) |
|
Minority share of dividends declared in the year |
(36) |
(75) |
(106) |
(2) |
|
Minority interest in (disposed)/acquired subsidiaries |
(2) |
59 |
43 |
- |
|
Changes in minority interest in existing subsidiaries |
- |
(78) |
(65) |
- |
|
Shares acquired by employee trusts |
- |
- |
(29) |
24 |
|
Reserves credit for equity compensation plans |
20 |
27 |
39 |
18,009 |
|
Total equity |
15,308 |
21,388 |
17,649 |
(3,198) |
|
Minority interests |
(2,719) |
(2,657) |
(3,080) |
14,811 |
|
Balance at 30 June/31 December |
12,589 |
18,731 |
14,569 |
_________
Page 93
Condensed consolidated statement of financial position
- MCEV basis
As at 30 June 2009
30 June |
|
|
30 June |
Restated |
Restated |
|
|
Assets |
|
|
|
3,954 |
|
Goodwill |
3,361 |
3,048 |
3,578 |
3,846 |
|
Acquired value of in-force business and intangible assets |
3,269 |
3,170 |
4,038 |
2,941 |
|
Additional value of in-force long-term business1 |
2,500 |
6,714 |
3,203 |
1,612 |
|
Interests in, and loans to, joint ventures |
1,370 |
2,588 |
1,737 |
1,282 |
|
Interests in, and loans to, associates |
1,090 |
1,211 |
1,246 |
947 |
|
Property and equipment |
805 |
996 |
964 |
14,374 |
|
Investment property |
12,218 |
15,048 |
14,426 |
46,727 |
|
Loans |
39,718 |
37,387 |
42,237 |
|
|
Financial investments |
|
|
|
171,727 |
|
Debt securities |
145,968 |
125,661 |
150,255 |
42,500 |
|
Equity securities |
36,125 |
51,027 |
43,351 |
34,041 |
|
Other investments |
28,935 |
34,510 |
36,116 |
8,241 |
|
Reinsurance assets |
7,005 |
8,273 |
7,894 |
2,944 |
|
Deferred tax assets |
2,502 |
249 |
2,642 |
522 |
|
Current tax assets |
444 |
534 |
622 |
12,666 |
|
Receivables and other financial assets |
10,765 |
10,750 |
9,816 |
7,346 |
|
Deferred acquisition costs and other assets |
6,244 |
5,074 |
6,147 |
4,322 |
|
Prepayments and accrued income |
3,674 |
3,183 |
3,762 |
30,056 |
|
Cash and cash equivalents |
25,548 |
18,783 |
24,181 |
2,965 |
|
Assets of operations classified as held for sale2 |
2,520 |
6,643 |
1,550 |
393,013 |
|
Total assets |
334,061 |
334,849 |
357,765 |
|
|
Equity |
|
|
|
806 |
|
Ordinary share capital |
685 |
664 |
664 |
5,275 |
|
Capital reserves |
4,484 |
4,516 |
4,505 |
2,391 |
|
Other reserves |
2,032 |
1,601 |
3,539 |
(39) |
|
Shares held by employee trusts |
(33) |
(10) |
(33) |
3,442 |
|
Retained earnings |
2,926 |
5,244 |
3,806 |
1,536 |
|
Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis1 |
1,305 |
5,526 |
898 |
13,411 |
|
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc |
11,399 |
17,541 |
13,379 |
1,400 |
|
Preference share capital and direct capital instruments |
1,190 |
1,190 |
1,190 |
3,198 |
|
Minority interests1 |
2,719 |
2,657 |
3,080 |
18,009 |
|
Total equity |
15,308 |
21,388 |
17,649 |
|
|
Liabilities |
|
|
|
190,324 |
|
Gross insurance liabilities |
161,775 |
154,593 |
174,850 |
114,754 |
|
Gross liabilities for investment contracts |
97,541 |
98,627 |
107,559 |
2,686 |
|
Unallocated divisible surplus |
2,283 |
4,065 |
2,325 |
9,380 |
|
Net asset value attributable to unitholders |
7,973 |
7,861 |
6,918 |
4,653 |
|
Provisions |
3,955 |
2,398 |
2,984 |
3,236 |
|
Deferred tax liabilities |
2,751 |
1,257 |
3,020 |
445 |
|
Current tax liabilities |
378 |
1,125 |
642 |
16,853 |
|
Borrowings |
14,325 |
13,373 |
15,201 |
24,834 |
|
Payables and other financial liabilities |
21,109 |
19,720 |
20,840 |
5,504 |
|
Other liabilities |
4,678 |
4,537 |
4,556 |
2,335 |
|
Liabilities of operations classified as held for sale |
1,985 |
5,905 |
1,221 |
375,004 |
|
Total liabilities |
318,753 |
313,461 |
340,116 |
393,013 |
|
Total equity and liabilities |
334,061 |
334,849 |
357,765 |
The summarised consolidated statement of financial position presented above is unaltered from the corresponding IFRS summarised consolidated statement of financial position with the exception of the following:
1. Adding the excess of the Life MCEV, including minority interests, over the corresponding Life IFRS net assets represented as the additional value of in-force long-term business; corresponding item within equity represented by the additional retained profit on an MCEV basis; and, corresponding adjustments to minority interests.
2. Assets of operations classified as held for sale per IFRS note A3 c (ii) has been increased by £69 million (30 June 2008: £nil; 31 December 2008: £nil) to reflect the additional value of in-force long-term business included in these operations.
___________
Page 94
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
Reconciliation of shareholders' equity on IFRS and MCEV bases
For the six month period to 30 June 2009
30 June 2009 |
IFRS |
Adjustment |
MCEV |
Ordinary share capital |
685 |
- |
685 |
Capital reserves |
4,484 |
- |
4,484 |
Other reserves |
1,487 |
545 |
2,032 |
Shares held by employee trusts |
(33) |
- |
(33) |
Retained earnings |
2,926 |
- |
2,926 |
Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis |
- |
1,305 |
1,305 |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc |
9,549 |
1,850 |
11,399 |
Preference share capital |
200 |
- |
200 |
Direct capital instruments |
990 |
- |
990 |
Minority interests |
2,000 |
719 |
2,719 |
Total equity |
12,739 |
2,569 |
15,308 |
Restated |
IFRS |
Adjustment |
MCEV |
Ordinary share capital |
664 |
- |
664 |
Capital reserves |
4,516 |
- |
4,516 |
Other reserves |
1,211 |
390 |
1,601 |
Shares held by employee trusts |
(10) |
- |
(10) |
Retained earnings |
5,244 |
- |
5,244 |
Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis |
- |
5,526 |
5,526 |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc |
11,625 |
5,916 |
17,541 |
Preference share capital |
200 |
- |
200 |
Direct capital instruments |
990 |
- |
990 |
Minority interests |
1,859 |
798 |
2,657 |
Total equity |
14,674 |
6,714 |
21,388 |
Restated |
IFRS |
Adjustment |
MCEV |
Ordinary share capital |
664 |
- |
664 |
Capital reserves |
4,505 |
- |
4,505 |
Other reserves |
2,110 |
1,429 |
3,539 |
Shares held by employee trusts |
(33) |
- |
(33) |
Retained earnings |
3,806 |
- |
3,806 |
Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis |
- |
898 |
898 |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc |
11,052 |
2,327 |
13,379 |
Preference share capital |
200 |
- |
200 |
Direct capital instruments |
990 |
- |
990 |
Minority interests |
2,204 |
876 |
3,080 |
Total equity |
14,446 |
3,203 |
17,649 |
___________
Page 95
Reconciliation of IFRS total equity to MCEV net worth
For the six month period to 30 June 2009
|
30 June |
Restated |
Restated |
Net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis |
12,739 |
14,674 |
14,446 |
Adjusting for general business and other net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis |
3,165 |
(282) |
2,135 |
Life and related businesses net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis |
15,904 |
14,392 |
16,581 |
Goodwill and other intangibles |
(2,579) |
(2,495) |
(2,947) |
Acquired value of in-force business |
(1,913) |
(1,834) |
(2,490) |
Adjustment for share of joint ventures and associates |
(389) |
(433) |
(472) |
Adjustment for assets to regulatory value net of tax |
740 |
563 |
1,474 |
Adjustment for DAC and DIR net of tax |
(2,918) |
(2,018) |
(2,680) |
Adjustment for differences in technical provisions |
1,275 |
781 |
406 |
Other accounting and tax differences |
474 |
545 |
937 |
MCEV net worth |
10,594 |
9,501 |
10,809 |
MCEV value of in-force |
5,759 |
9,250 |
6,114 |
MCEV1 |
16,353 |
18,751 |
16,923 |
1. Comprises embedded value of £14,263 million (30 June 2008: £16,729 million; 31 December 2008: £14,556 million) and minority interest in long-term business assets of £2,090 million (30 June 2008: £2,022 million; 31 December 2008: £2,367 million).
Group MCEV analysis of earnings
30 June 2009 |
Covered |
Non- covered |
Total life |
Non-covered relating to non-life |
Total non- covered |
Total |
Opening group MCEV |
14,556 |
2,639 |
17,195 |
(2,626) |
13 |
14,569 |
Opening adjustments |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Adjusted opening group MCEV |
14,556 |
2,639 |
17,195 |
(2,626) |
13 |
14,569 |
Operating MCEV earnings |
1,030 |
- |
1,030 |
86 |
86 |
1,116 |
Non-operating MCEV earnings |
17 |
(29) |
(12) |
(51) |
(80) |
(63) |
Total MCEV earnings |
1,047 |
(29) |
1,018 |
35 |
6 |
1,053 |
Other movements in IFRS net equity |
- |
(373) |
(373) |
(943) |
(1,316) |
(1,316) |
Capital and dividend flows |
(48) |
- |
(48) |
(284) |
(284) |
(332) |
Foreign exchange variances |
(1,294) |
(281) |
(1,575) |
190 |
(91) |
(1,385) |
Acquired/divested businesses |
2 |
(29) |
(27) |
27 |
(2) |
- |
Closing group MCEV |
14,263 |
1,927 |
16,190 |
(3,601) |
(1,674) |
12,589 |
Preference share capital and direct capital instruments |
|
|
|
|
|
(1,190) |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc |
|
|
|
|
|
11,399 |
___________
Page 96
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
Group MCEV analysis of earnings continued
Restated |
Covered |
Non-covered |
Total life |
Non-covered relating to non-life |
Total non- covered |
Total |
Opening group MCEV |
18,389 |
2,059 |
20,448 |
881 |
2,940 |
21,329 |
Opening adjustments |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Adjusted opening group MCEV |
18,389 |
2,059 |
20,448 |
881 |
2,940 |
21,329 |
Operating MCEV earnings |
774 |
- |
774 |
126 |
126 |
900 |
Non-operating MCEV earnings |
(2,836) |
(19) |
(2,855) |
(446) |
(465) |
(3,301) |
Total MCEV earnings |
(2,062) |
(19) |
(2,081) |
(320) |
(339) |
(2,401) |
Other movements in IFRS net equity |
- |
(88) |
(88) |
(674) |
(762) |
(762) |
Capital and dividend flows |
(599) |
- |
(599) |
264 |
264 |
(335) |
Foreign exchange variances |
811 |
102 |
913 |
(13) |
89 |
900 |
Acquired/divested businesses |
190 |
117 |
307 |
(307) |
(190) |
- |
Closing group MCEV |
16,729 |
2,171 |
18,900 |
(169) |
2,002 |
18,731 |
Preference share capital and direct capital instruments |
|
|
|
|
|
(1,190) |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an MCEV basis |
|
|
|
|
|
17,541 |
Restated |
Covered |
Non-covered |
Total life |
Non-covered relating to non-life |
Total |
Total |
Opening group MCEV |
18,389 |
2,059 |
20,448 |
881 |
2,940 |
21,329 |
Opening adjustments |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Adjusted opening group MCEV |
18,389 |
2,059 |
20,448 |
881 |
2,940 |
21,329 |
Operating MCEV earnings |
1,760 |
- |
1,760 |
535 |
535 |
2,295 |
Non-operating MCEV earnings |
(8,411) |
(53) |
(8,464) |
(1,229) |
(1,282) |
(9,693) |
Total MCEV earnings |
(6,651) |
(53) |
(6,704) |
(694) |
(747) |
(7,398) |
Other movements in IFRS net equity |
- |
(28) |
(28) |
(994) |
(1,022) |
(1,022) |
Capital and dividend flows |
(63) |
- |
(63) |
(712) |
(712) |
(775) |
Foreign exchange variances |
2,794 |
567 |
3,361 |
(926) |
(359) |
2,435 |
Acquired/divested businesses |
87 |
94 |
181 |
(181) |
(87) |
- |
Closing group MCEV |
14,556 |
2,639 |
17,195 |
(2,626) |
13 |
14,569 |
Preference share capital and direct capital instruments |
|
|
|
|
|
(1,190) |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an MCEV basis |
|
|
|
|
|
13,379 |
1. Covered business represents the business that the MCEV calculations cover, as detailed in the Basis of preparation note. The embedded value is presented net of minority interests and tax.
2. Non-covered but related to life business represents the adjustments to the MCEV, including goodwill, to calculate the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis. An analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis gross of minority interests is provided on page 108.
3. Net assets for the total life businesses on an MCEV basis presented net of minority interests.
___________
Page 97
B1 - Basis of preparation
The consolidated income statement and condensed consolidated statement of financial position on pages 91 to 93 present the Group's results and financial position for the life and related businesses on Aviva's Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) basis and for its non-life businesses on the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) basis. The MCEV methodology adopted is in accordance with the MCEV Principles published by the CFO Forum in June 2008 with the exception of the use of an adjusted risk-free yield due to current market conditions for all contracts that contain features similar to immediate annuities and are backed by appropriate assets, including paid up group deferred annuities in the Netherlands, and deferred annuities and all other contracts in the US.
The CFO Forum MCEV Principles were designed during a period of relatively stable market conditions. As announced on 19 December 2008, the CFO Forum has agreed to conduct a review of the impact of turbulent market conditions on the MCEV Principles, the result of which may lead to changes to the published MCEV Principles or the issuance of guidance. The particular areas under review include implied volatilities, the cost of non-hedgeable risks, the use of swap rates as a proxy for risk-free rates and the effect of liquidity premia.
On the 22 May 2009, the CFO Forum announced that it was continuing work to seek to improve the consistency in the adjustments made for liquidity premium and volatilities. The CFO Forum stated that a further update will be provided later in 2009.
The directors consider that Aviva's MCEV methodology gives useful insight into the drivers of financial performance of the group's life and related businesses. This basis values future cash flows from assets consistently with market prices, including more explicit allowance for the impact of uncertainty in future investment returns and other risks.
Embedded value is also consistent with the way pricing is assessed and the business is managed. The results for our half year report have been reviewed by our auditors, Ernst & Young LLP. Their report in respect of the half year report can be found on page 125.
Covered business
The MCEV calculations cover the following lines of business: life insurance, long-term health and accident insurance, savings, pensions and annuity business written by our life insurance subsidiaries, including managed pension fund business and our share of the other life and related business written in our associated undertakings and joint ventures, as well as the equity release business written in the UK.
Covered business includes the group's share of our joint ventures including our arrangement with The Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBSG) and our associated undertakings in India, China, Turkey, Malaysia, Taiwan and South Korea. In addition, the results of group companies providing significant administration, fund management and other services and of group holding companies have been included to the extent that they relate to covered business. Together these businesses are referred to as 'Life and related businesses'.
Adjusted risk-free rate
In stable markets, swap curves are an appropriate risk-free rate. However, in the current turbulent market it is possible, for products where backing asset portfolios can be held to maturity, to earn returns in excess of swaps by investing in corporate bonds and credit default swaps (CDS). Aviva's MCEV methodology for the 2008 Annual Report and Accounts adopted the CFO Forum Principles and Guidance with the exception of the use of an adjusted risk-free yield due to market conditions for UK and Netherlands immediate annuities and for immediate annuities, deferred annuities and all other contracts in the US.
Following a review the scope of business using adjusted swap rates has been increased to cover all contracts that contain features similar to immediate annuity contracts. Prior period results have been restated to include the effect of adjusting the risk free rates on paid-up and single premium group deferred annuity business in the Netherlands and immediate annuities in France and Spain. At 31 December 2008, this increased the embedded value by £467 million (30 June 2008: £152 million, 31 December 2007: £141 million), and increased total earnings by £234 million in 2008 (six months to 30 June 2008: £nil). The impact of these changes by country at 31 December 2008 was the Netherlands (£352 million), France (£48 million) and Spain (£67 million).
The reference rate for these products has been increased above the swap curve to estimate the additional returns available through replicating portfolios where backing assets can be held to maturity in the current market. Due to the limited availability of CDS assets, particularly at the long durations, this is a material area of judgement and sensitivity analysis has been provided on page 120 on the additions to the swap curves.
Further details regarding the adjustments can be found on page 115.
New business premiums
New business premiums include:
premiums arising from the sale of new contracts during the period;
non-contractual additional premiums, including future Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) rebate premiums; and
expected renewals on new contracts and expected future contractual alterations to new contracts.
The group's definition of new business under MCEV includes contracts that meet the definition of 'non-participating investment' contracts under IFRS.
For products sold to individuals, premiums are considered to represent new business where a new contract has been signed, or where underwriting has been performed. Renewal premiums include contractual renewals, non-contractual variations that are reasonably predictable and recurrent single premiums that are pre-defined and reasonably predictable.
For group products, new business includes new contracts and increases to aggregate premiums under existing contracts. Renewal premiums are based on the level of premium received during the reporting period and allow for premiums expected to be received beyond the expiry of any guaranteed premium rates.
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Page 98
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B1 - Basis of preparation continued
The 2008 figures for present value of new business premiums and value of new business have been restated to reclassify premium increases on Spanish Annual Renewable Term (ART) business as other operating variances rather than new business. There is no impact on profit.
Life and pensions operating earnings
For life and pensions operating earnings, Aviva uses normalised investment returns. The use of asset risk premia reflects management's long-term expectations of asset returns in excess of the swap yield from investing in different asset classes.
Within the 2008 results, the normalised investment returns were calculated by reference to the one year swap rate in the relevant currency plus an appropriate risk premium for bonds, equities and properties. For 2009, the group considers that the return over the typical duration of the assets held is more appropriate and is more consistent with the group's expectation of long-term rates of return.
Therefore, the expected return on equities and properties has been calculated by reference to the 10 year swap rate in the relevant currency plus an appropriate risk premium. The expected return on bonds has been calculated by reference to the swap rate consistent to the duration of the backing assets in the relevant currency plus an appropriate risk premium.
This assumption does not impact the embedded value as asset risk premia are not recognised until earned.
MCEV methodology
Overview
Under the MCEV methodology, profit is recognised as it is earned over the life of products defined within covered business. The total profit recognised over the lifetime of a policy is the same as under the IFRS basis of reporting, but the timing of recognition is different.
Calculation of the embedded value
The shareholders' interest in the life and related businesses is represented by the embedded value. The embedded value is the total of the net worth of the life and related businesses and the value of in-force covered business. Calculations are performed separately for each business and are based on the cash flows of that business, after allowing for both external and intra-group reinsurance. Where one life business has an interest in another, the net worth of that business excludes the interest in the dependent company.
The embedded value is calculated on an after-tax basis applying current legislation and practice together with future known changes. Where gross results are presented, these have been calculated by grossing up post-tax results at the full rate of corporation tax for each country based on opening period tax rates, apart from the US, where a nil tax rate has been used in the post-tax results, and consequently for 'grossing up'.
Net worth
The net worth is the market value of the shareholders' funds and the shareholders' interest in the surplus held in the non-profit component of the long-term business funds, determined on a statutory solvency basis and adjusted to add back any non-admissible assets, and consists of the required capital and free surplus.
Required capital is the market value of assets attributed to the covered business over and above that required to back liabilities for covered business, for which distribution to shareholders is restricted. Required capital is reported net of implicit items permitted on a local regulatory basis to cover minimum solvency margins which are assessed at a local entity level. The level of required capital for each business unit is set equal to the higher of:
The level of capital at which the local regulator is empowered to take action;
The capital requirement of the business unit under the group's economic capital requirements; and,
The target capital level of the business unit.
This methodology reflects the level of capital considered by the directors to be appropriate to manage the business. The same definition of required capital is used for both existing and new business.
The free surplus is the market value of any assets allocated to, but not required to support, the in-force covered business at the valuation date. The level of required capital across the business units expressed as a percentage of the EU minimum solvency margin (or equivalent) can be found on page 116.
Value of in-force covered business (VIF)
The value of in-force covered business consists of the following components:
present value of future profits;
time value of financial options and guarantees;
frictional costs of required capital; and
cost of residual non-hedgeable risks.
Present value of future profits (PVFP)
This is the present value of the distributable profits to shareholders arising from the in-force covered business projected on a best estimate basis.
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Page 99
B1 - Basis of preparation continued
Distributable profits generally arise when they are released following actuarial valuations. These valuations are carried out in accordance with any local statutory requirements designed to ensure and demonstrate solvency in long-term business funds. Future distributable profits will depend on experience in a number of areas such as investment return, discontinuance rates, mortality, administration costs, as well as management and policyholder actions. Releases to shareholders arising in future years from the in-force covered business and associated required capital can be projected using assumptions of future experience.
Future profits are projected using best estimate non-economic assumptions and market consistent economic assumptions. In principle, each cash flow is discounted at a rate that appropriately reflects the riskiness of that cash flow, so higher risk cash flows are discounted at higher rates. In practice, the PVFP is calculated using the 'certainty equivalent' approach, under which the reference rate is used for both the investment return and the discount rate. This approach ensures that asset cash flows are valued consistently with the market prices of assets without options and guarantees. Further information on the risk-free rates is given in note B12.
The PVFP includes the capitalised value of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the extent that they relate to covered business. This is referred to as the 'look through' into service company expenses. In addition, expenses arising in holding companies that relate directly to acquiring or maintaining covered business have been allowed for. Where external companies provide services to the life and related businesses, their charges have been allowed for in the underlying projected cost base.
Time value of financial options and guarantees (TVOG)
The PVFP calculation is based on a single (base) economic scenario. However, a single scenario cannot appropriately allow for the effect of certain product features. If an option or guarantee affects shareholder cash flows in the base scenario, the impact is included in the PVFP and is referred to as the intrinsic value of the option guarantee.
However, future investment returns are uncertain and the actual impact on shareholder profits may be higher or lower. The value of in-force business needs to be adjusted for the impact of the range of potential future outcomes. Stochastic modelling techniques can be used to assess the impact of potential future outcomes, and the difference between the intrinsic value and the total stochastic value is referred to as the time value of the option or guarantee.
Stochastic modelling typically involves projecting the future cash flows of the business under thousands of economic scenarios that are representative of the possible future outcomes for market variables such as interest rates and equity returns. Under a market consistent approach, the economic scenarios generated reflect the market's tendency towards risk aversion. Allowance is made, where appropriate, for the effect of management and/or policyholder actions in different economic conditions on future assumptions such as asset mix, bonus rates and surrender rates.
Stochastic models are calibrated to market yield curves and volatility levels at the valuation date. Tests are performed to confirm that the scenarios used produce results that replicate the market price of traded instruments.
Where evidence exists that persistency rates are linked to economic scenarios, dynamic lapse assumptions are set that vary depending on the individual scenarios. This cost is included in the TVOG. Dynamic lapses are modelled for parts of the US and French business. Asymmetries in non-economic assumptions that are linked to economic scenarios, but that have insufficient evidence for credible dynamic assumptions, are allowed for within mean best estimate assumptions.
Frictional costs of required capital
The additional costs to a shareholder of holding the assets backing required capital within an insurance company rather than directly in the market are called frictional costs. They are explicitly deducted from the PVFP. The additional costs allowed for are the taxation costs and any additional investment expenses on the assets backing the required capital. The level of required capital has been set out above in the net worth section.
Frictional costs are calculated by projecting forwards the future levels of required capital. Tax on investment return and investment expenses are payable on the assets backing required capital, up until the point that they are released to shareholders.
Cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (CNHR)
The cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (CNHR) covers risks not already allowed for in the time value of options and guarantees or the PVFP. The allowance includes the impact of both non-hedgeable financial and non-financial risks. The most significant risk not included in the PVFP or TVOG is operational risk.
Aviva's methodology includes a cost of non-hedgeable risk equivalent to a charge of 2.5% applied to group-diversified capital. The cost has been calculated as a 1.5% charge applied to business unit-level capital, that is, allowing for diversification within a business unit, but not between business units. The charge was set so as to give an aggregate allowance that was in excess of the expected operational risk costs arising from the in-force covered business over its remaining lifetime.
The capital levels used are projected to be sufficient to cover non-hedgeable risks at the 99.5% confidence level one-year after the valuation date. The capital is equal to the capital from the ICA results for those risks considered. The capital has been projected as running off over the remaining life of the in-force portfolio in line with the drivers of the capital requirement.
In addition to the operational risk allowance, financial non-hedgeable risks and other product level asymmetries have been allowed for. These allowances are not material as significant financial non-hedgeable risks and product level asymmetries are either modelled explicitly and included in the TVOG or are included in the PVFP through the use of appropriate best estimate assumptions. Asymmetric risks allowed for in the TVOG or PVFP are described earlier in the Basis of preparation. No allowance has been made within the cost of non-hedgeable risk for symmetrical risks as these are diversifiable by investors.
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Page 100
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B1 - Basis of preparation continued
Participating business
Future regular bonuses on participating business are projected in a manner consistent with current bonus rates and expected future market-consistent returns on assets deemed to back the policies.
For with-profit funds in the UK and Ireland, for the purpose of recognising the value of the estate, it is assumed that terminal bonuses are increased to exhaust all of the assets in the fund over the future lifetime of the in-force with-profit policies. However, under stochastic modelling there may be some extreme economic scenarios when the total assets in the group's with-profit funds are not sufficient to pay all policyholder claims. The average additional shareholder cost arising from this shortfall has been included in the TVOG.
For profit sharing business in continental Europe, where policy benefits and shareholder value depend on the timing of realising gains, the apportionment of unrealised gains between policyholders and shareholders reflect contractual requirements as well as existing practice. Under certain economic scenarios where additional shareholder injections are required to meet policyholder payments, the average additional cost has been included in the TVOG.
The embedded value of the US spread-based products anticipates the application of management discretion allowed for contractually within the policies, subject to contractual guarantees. This includes the ability to change the crediting rates and indexed strategies available within the policy. Consideration is taken of the economic environment assumed in future projections and returns in excess of the reference rate are not assumed. Anticipated market and policyholder reaction to management action has been considered. The anticipated management action is consistent with current decision rules and has been approved and signed off by management and legal counsel.
Consolidation adjustments
The effect of transactions between group life companies such as loans and reinsurance arrangements have been included in the results split by territory in a consistent manner. No elimination is required on consolidation.
As the MCEV methodology incorporates the impact of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the group's life companies, the equivalent profits and losses have been removed from the relevant segment (non-insurance or fund management) and are instead included within the results of life and related businesses. In addition, the underlying basis of calculation for these profits has changed from the IFRS basis to the MCEV basis.
The capitalised value of the future profits and losses from such service companies are included in the embedded value and value of new business calculations for the relevant business, but the net assets (representing historical profits and other amounts) remain under non-insurance or fund management. In order to reconcile the profits arising in the financial period within each segment with the assets on the opening and closing statement of financial positions, a transfer of IFRS profits from life and related business to the appropriate segment is deemed to occur. An equivalent approach has been adopted for expenses within our holding companies.
The assessments of goodwill, intangibles and pension schemes relating to life insurance business utilise the IFRS measurement basis.
Exchange rates
The group's principal overseas operations during the period were located within the Eurozone and the United States.
The results and cash flows of these operations have been translated at the average rates for that period and the assets and liabilities have been translated at the period end rates. Please refer to note A2 on page 54.
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Page 101
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings
Gross of tax and |
UK |
France |
Ireland |
Italy |
Nether-lands |
Poland |
Spain |
Other Europe |
Europe |
North America |
Asia |
Australia |
Asia Pacific |
Total |
Value of new business |
101 |
72 |
4 |
81 |
(34) |
27 |
78 |
6 |
234 |
16 |
6 |
10 |
16 |
367 |
Earnings from existing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing |
41 |
81 |
12 |
6 |
43 |
33 |
22 |
10 |
207 |
36 |
8 |
8 |
16 |
300 |
- expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) |
153 |
153 |
5 |
4 |
116 |
3 |
55 |
(1) |
335 |
111 |
2 |
- |
2 |
601 |
Experience variances |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense1 |
25 |
1 |
2 |
(3) |
16 |
3 |
(1) |
3 |
21 |
- |
2 |
1 |
3 |
49 |
- project and other related expenses |
(36) |
(3) |
(4) |
(2) |
(2) |
(1) |
(3) |
(2) |
(17) |
(5) |
1 |
- |
1 |
(57) |
- mortality/morbidity2 |
6 |
10 |
8 |
- |
(6) |
9 |
(4) |
1 |
18 |
(4) |
4 |
4 |
8 |
28 |
- lapses3 |
(17) |
(18) |
(22) |
(3) |
(6) |
8 |
(35) |
(10) |
(86) |
(8) |
(24) |
- |
(24) |
(135) |
- other4 |
(5) |
(13) |
(5) |
11 |
21 |
5 |
1 |
- |
20 |
(74) |
1 |
(2) |
(1) |
(60) |
|
(27) |
(23) |
(21) |
3 |
23 |
24 |
(42) |
(8) |
(44) |
(91) |
(16) |
3 |
(13) |
(175) |
Operating assumption changes: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense |
2 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
4 |
4 |
6 |
- project and other related expenses |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- mortality/morbidity |
(1) |
- |
6 |
- |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
7 |
- |
(2) |
- |
(2) |
4 |
- lapses5 |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
(31) |
- |
- |
- |
(31) |
- |
(11) |
- |
(11) |
(41) |
- other6 |
- |
- |
(2) |
- |
116 |
- |
- |
1 |
115 |
- |
2 |
- |
2 |
117 |
|
2 |
- |
4 |
- |
86 |
- |
- |
1 |
91 |
- |
(11) |
4 |
(7) |
86 |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
68 |
34 |
9 |
29 |
39 |
5 |
13 |
4 |
133 |
47 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
255 |
Other operating variances7 |
7 |
60 |
5 |
(3) |
56 |
- |
28 |
3 |
149 |
1 |
17 |
(1) |
16 |
173 |
Earnings before tax |
345 |
377 |
18 |
120 |
329 |
92 |
154 |
15 |
1,105 |
120 |
10 |
27 |
37 |
1,607 |
1. Maintenance expense experience in the UK and Netherlands relates to profits from existing business administration and cost savings, respectively. Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer a wider range of products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes.
2. Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a number of our businesses.
3. Lapse experience has been volatile, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In Poland, lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both Life and Pension products.
4. In the Netherlands, favourable other experience variances arise from policy alterations on group business. In the USA, other experience reflects the cost of enhancing policyholder crediting rates.
5. In the Netherlands, adverse lapse assumption changes have been made in the German business.
6. Favourable other assumption changes in the Netherlands are in respect of revisions to investment and bonus strategies in Germany as this business is repositioned.
7. Other operating variances in France and the Netherlands relate to modelling refinements. In Spain, these reflect the impact of re-pricing actions on risk products.
___________
Page 102
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued
Gross of tax and |
UK |
France |
Ireland |
Italy |
Nether-lands |
Poland |
Spain |
Other Europe |
Europe |
North America |
Asia |
Australia |
Asia Pacific |
Total |
Value of new business |
73 |
69 |
8 |
35 |
(29) |
31 |
116 |
19 |
249 |
(8) |
26 |
6 |
32 |
346 |
Earnings from existing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing |
158 |
77 |
19 |
13 |
53 |
42 |
30 |
9 |
243 |
43 |
7 |
13 |
20 |
464 |
- expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) |
82 |
19 |
3 |
2 |
68 |
4 |
14 |
- |
110 |
24 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
219 |
Experience variances |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense |
- |
(1) |
(4) |
(1) |
3 |
3 |
(1) |
(4) |
(5) |
- |
2 |
(1) |
1 |
(4) |
- project and other related expenses1 |
(27) |
- |
(5) |
- |
(1) |
- |
(1) |
(3) |
(10) |
(1) |
(1) |
(1) |
(2) |
(40) |
- mortality/morbidity2 |
11 |
17 |
2 |
1 |
(15) |
10 |
(2) |
1 |
14 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
30 |
- lapses3 |
(12) |
5 |
- |
(1) |
18 |
14 |
(5) |
(2) |
29 |
(1) |
(9) |
1 |
(8) |
8 |
- other4 |
33 |
13 |
(9) |
11 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
22 |
(6) |
- |
1 |
1 |
50 |
|
5 |
34 |
(16) |
10 |
7 |
29 |
(7) |
(7) |
50 |
(7) |
(6) |
2 |
(4) |
44 |
Operating assumption changes: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense |
- |
- |
(1) |
- |
(10) |
- |
- |
- |
(11) |
(7) |
(1) |
- |
(1) |
(19) |
- mortality/morbidity5 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(120) |
- |
(2) |
- |
(122) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(122) |
- lapses |
- |
- |
- |
- |
18 |
- |
- |
- |
18 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
18 |
- other6 |
22 |
(5) |
- |
12 |
(3) |
- |
- |
- |
4 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
26 |
|
22 |
(5) |
(1) |
12 |
(115) |
- |
(2) |
- |
(111) |
(7) |
(1) |
- |
(1) |
(97) |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
78 |
51 |
15 |
30 |
74 |
8 |
11 |
3 |
192 |
28 |
7 |
4 |
11 |
309 |
Other operating variances7 |
(1) |
(4) |
12 |
(1) |
(23) |
- |
11 |
- |
(5) |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
(5) |
Earnings before tax and minority interests |
417 |
241 |
40 |
101 |
35 |
114 |
173 |
24 |
728 |
74 |
34 |
27 |
61 |
1,280 |
1. Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer simpler products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes
2. Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a range of businesses.
3. Lapse experience has been volatile, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In the UK, lapse experience for non-profit pension and bond products was worse than expected. In Poland, lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both Life and Pension products. In the Netherlands, the positive lapse variance reflects better than expected persistency in the group pensions business.
4. Other experience profits reflect an accumulation of small items.
5. Mortality assumption changes in the Netherlands reflect the impact of using a new industry mortality basis.
6. Other operating assumption changes in the UK reflect the distribution of a special bonus to with-profit policyholders.
7. Other operating variances reflect the impact of various small modelling changes. In Spain, these reflect the impact of re-pricing actions on risk products.
___________
Page 103
B2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued
Gross of tax and |
UK |
France |
Ireland |
Italy |
Nether-lands |
Poland |
Spain |
Other Europe |
Europe |
North America |
Asia |
Australia |
Asia Pacific |
Total |
Value of new business |
204 |
135 |
15 |
71 |
(47) |
65 |
202 |
29 |
470 |
55 |
30 |
13 |
43 |
772 |
Earnings from existing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing |
338 |
188 |
39 |
30 |
107 |
91 |
60 |
19 |
534 |
86 |
9 |
25 |
34 |
992 |
- expected existing business contribution (in excess of |
210 |
38 |
8 |
6 |
78 |
8 |
22 |
- |
160 |
53 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
429 |
Experience variances |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense |
20 |
2 |
(2) |
(6) |
(35) |
6 |
(1) |
(1) |
(37) |
- |
(2) |
- |
(2) |
(19) |
- project and other related expenses1 |
(62) |
(10) |
(7) |
- |
(26) |
- |
(6) |
(6) |
(55) |
(14) |
- |
- |
- |
(131) |
- mortality/morbidity2 |
18 |
42 |
2 |
2 |
19 |
20 |
4 |
1 |
90 |
- |
5 |
2 |
7 |
115 |
- lapses3 |
(23) |
(8) |
(7) |
(15) |
(11) |
26 |
(24) |
(10) |
(49) |
(5) |
(4) |
3 |
(1) |
(78) |
- other4 |
7 |
(45) |
(42) |
(15) |
34 |
(8) |
2 |
(1) |
(75) |
(31) |
(1) |
(11) |
(12) |
(111) |
|
(40) |
(19) |
(56) |
(34) |
(19) |
44 |
(25) |
(17) |
(126) |
(50) |
(2) |
(6) |
(8) |
(224) |
Operating assumption changes: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense5 |
(15) |
(12) |
(2) |
(9) |
(167) |
4 |
- |
(12) |
(198) |
(5) |
(3) |
- |
(3) |
(221) |
- project and other related expenses |
13 |
- |
- |
- |
9 |
- |
- |
- |
9 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
22 |
- mortality/morbidity6 |
54 |
- |
25 |
11 |
(79) |
4 |
(1) |
- |
(40) |
- |
1 |
(1) |
- |
14 |
- lapses7 |
(73) |
108 |
7 |
(9) |
- |
(10) |
(19) |
(20) |
57 |
- |
(12) |
1 |
(11) |
(27) |
- other8 |
16 |
(1) |
23 |
3 |
(28) |
24 |
- |
13 |
34 |
1 |
(10) |
6 |
(4) |
47 |
|
(5) |
95 |
53 |
(4) |
(265) |
22 |
(20) |
(19) |
(138) |
(4) |
(24) |
6 |
(18) |
(165) |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
166 |
107 |
34 |
63 |
204 |
13 |
23 |
8 |
452 |
61 |
14 |
8 |
22 |
701 |
Other operating variances9 |
10 |
148 |
(15) |
(1) |
138 |
(2) |
24 |
3 |
295 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
305 |
Earnings before tax and |
883 |
692 |
78 |
131 |
196 |
241 |
286 |
23 |
1,647 |
201 |
31 |
48 |
79 |
2,810 |
1. Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer a wider range of products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes. Expenses in the Netherlands reflect an overrun in Belgium following the acquisition of Swiss Life Belgium, and restructuring within the intermediary division.
2. Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a number of our businesses.
3. Lapse experience has been volatile, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In Poland, lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both life and pension products.
4. In France, other experience profits include the reduction in value arising from reductions in fees and commissions received. In Ireland, certain statutory provisions were increased following a review. The movement in the Netherlands reflects changes on group pension scheme contribution. In the USA, other experience reflects the cost of enhancing policyholder crediting rates.
5. In the Netherlands, expense assumptions have been updated following a review of expense allocations.
6. In UK, favourable mortality assumption changes are in respect of mortality and morbidity changes across a range of products. In the Netherlands, mortality assumption changes reflect the impact of using a new industry mortality basis.
7. In the UK, an additional lapse provision has been set up in anticipation of higher short-term recession related withdrawals (pre tax £50 million) and higher mortgage and income protection claims (pre tax £20 million) to reflect rising unemployment. In France, persistency assumptions have been weakened following continual favourable experience on AFER products.
8. In the UK, other operating assumption changes include the impact of the with-profit special distribution. In Ireland, other assumption changes reflect a reduction in the assumed future tax charges. In Poland, other assumptions reflect a change in the pattern of future mortality charging structure.
9. Other operating variances in France are mainly in respect of the impact of the mutualisation of funds following the merger of two legal entities. In the Netherlands, changes are mainly in respect of aligning the profit sharing policy for existing group business in Belgium, following the acquisition of Swiss Life Belgium.
___________
Page 104
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued
Net of tax and |
UK |
France |
Ireland |
Italy |
Nether-lands |
Poland |
Spain |
Other Europe |
Europe |
North America |
Asia |
Australia |
Asia Pacific |
Total |
Value of new business |
72 |
40 |
3 |
25 |
(28) |
19 |
26 |
5 |
90 |
16 |
5 |
7 |
12 |
190 |
Earnings from existing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing |
30 |
50 |
8 |
2 |
31 |
23 |
9 |
8 |
131 |
36 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
207 |
- expected existing |
110 |
93 |
3 |
1 |
85 |
2 |
21 |
- |
205 |
111 |
1 |
- |
1 |
427 |
Experience variances |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense1 |
18 |
1 |
1 |
(1) |
14 |
2 |
(1) |
3 |
19 |
- |
2 |
- |
2 |
39 |
- project and other related expenses |
(26) |
(2) |
(3) |
(1) |
(2) |
- |
(2) |
(2) |
(12) |
(5) |
1 |
- |
1 |
(42) |
- mortality/ |
4 |
6 |
5 |
- |
(7) |
6 |
(1) |
2 |
11 |
(4) |
3 |
3 |
6 |
17 |
- lapses3 |
(13) |
(11) |
(16) |
(1) |
(4) |
6 |
(12) |
(8) |
(46) |
(8) |
(19) |
- |
(19) |
(86) |
- other4 |
(3) |
(8) |
(3) |
6 |
18 |
4 |
1 |
(1) |
17 |
(74) |
- |
(1) |
(1) |
(61) |
|
(20) |
(14) |
(16) |
3 |
19 |
18 |
(15) |
(6) |
(11) |
(91) |
(13) |
2 |
(11) |
(133) |
Operating assumption |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense |
2 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(1) |
3 |
2 |
4 |
- project and other related expenses |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- mortality/morbidity |
(1) |
- |
4 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
4 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
3 |
- lapses5 |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
(22) |
- |
- |
- |
(22) |
- |
(10) |
- |
(10) |
(31) |
- other6 |
- |
- |
(1) |
- |
82 |
- |
- |
- |
81 |
- |
2 |
- |
2 |
83 |
|
2 |
- |
3 |
- |
60 |
- |
- |
- |
63 |
- |
(9) |
3 |
(6) |
59 |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
49 |
19 |
6 |
10 |
27 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
73 |
47 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
173 |
Other operating variances7 |
6 |
36 |
4 |
(1) |
40 |
(1) |
8 |
4 |
90 |
1 |
9 |
1 |
10 |
107 |
Earnings after tax and minority interests |
249 |
224 |
11 |
40 |
234 |
65 |
54 |
13 |
641 |
120 |
- |
20 |
20 |
1,030 |
1. Maintenance expense experience in the UK and Netherlands relates to profits from existing business administration and cost savings, respectively. Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer a wider range of products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes.
2. Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a number of our businesses.
3. Lapse experience has been volatile, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In Poland lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both Life and Pension products.
4. In the Netherlands, favourable other experience variances arise from policy alterations on group business. In the USA, other experience reflects the cost of enhancing policyholder crediting rates.
5. In the Netherlands, adverse lapse assumption changes have been made in the German business.
6. Favourable other assumption changes in the Netherlands are in respect of revisions to investment and bonus strategies in Germany as this business is repositioned.
7. Other operating variances in France and the Netherlands relate to modelling refinements. In Spain, these reflect the impact of re-pricing actions on risk products.
___________
Page 105
B2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued
Net of tax and |
UK |
France |
Ireland |
Italy |
Nether-lands |
Poland |
Spain |
Other Europe |
Europe |
North America |
Asia |
Australia |
Asia Pacific |
Total |
Value of new business |
53 |
38 |
6 |
12 |
(25) |
22 |
38 |
16 |
107 |
(5) |
21 |
4 |
25 |
180 |
Earnings from existing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing |
114 |
47 |
12 |
4 |
36 |
30 |
12 |
7 |
148 |
28 |
6 |
10 |
16 |
306 |
- expected existing |
59 |
12 |
2 |
1 |
48 |
3 |
6 |
- |
72 |
16 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
149 |
Experience variances |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense |
- |
- |
(3) |
- |
1 |
2 |
(1) |
(4) |
(5) |
- |
2 |
(1) |
1 |
(4) |
- project and other related expenses1 |
(20) |
- |
(3) |
- |
(1) |
- |
(1) |
(2) |
(7) |
(1) |
- |
- |
- |
(28) |
- mortality/morbidity2 |
8 |
11 |
1 |
- |
(11) |
8 |
(1) |
1 |
9 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
21 |
- lapses3 |
(9) |
3 |
- |
- |
14 |
10 |
(3) |
(2) |
22 |
(1) |
(8) |
1 |
(7) |
5 |
- other4 |
24 |
6 |
(6) |
4 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
- |
10 |
(3) |
(1) |
- |
(1) |
30 |
|
3 |
20 |
(11) |
4 |
7 |
21 |
(5) |
(7) |
29 |
(4) |
(5) |
1 |
(4) |
24 |
Operating assumption changes: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense |
- |
- |
(1) |
- |
(4) |
- |
- |
- |
(5) |
(5) |
- |
- |
- |
(10) |
- mortality/morbidity5 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(89) |
- |
(1) |
- |
(90) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(90) |
- lapses |
- |
- |
- |
- |
7 |
- |
- |
- |
7 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
7 |
- other6 |
16 |
(3) |
- |
4 |
(1) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
16 |
|
16 |
(3) |
(1) |
4 |
(87) |
- |
(1) |
- |
(88) |
(5) |
- |
- |
- |
(77) |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
56 |
31 |
10 |
10 |
53 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
118 |
18 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
199 |
Other operating variances7 |
(1) |
(1) |
7 |
(1) |
(17) |
- |
5 |
- |
(7) |
- |
1 |
- |
1 |
(7) |
Earnings after tax and minority interests |
300 |
144 |
25 |
34 |
15 |
81 |
60 |
20 |
379 |
48 |
28 |
19 |
47 |
774 |
1. Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer simpler products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes.
2. Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a range of businesses.
3. Lapse experience has been volatile, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In the UK, lapse experience for non-profit pension and bond products was worse than expected. In Poland, lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both Life and Pension products. In the Netherlands, the positive lapse variance reflects better than expected persistency in the group pensions business.
4. Other experience profits reflect an accumulation of small items.
5. Mortality assumption changes in the Netherlands reflect the impact of using a new industry mortality basis.
6. Other operating assumption changes in the UK reflect the distribution of a special bonus to with-profit policyholders.
7. Other operating variances reflect the impact of various small modelling changes. In Spain, these reflect the impact of re-pricing actions on risk products.
___________
Page 106
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued
Net of tax and 31 December 2008 |
UK |
France |
Ireland |
Italy |
Nether-lands |
Poland |
Spain |
Other Europe |
Europe |
North America |
Asia |
Australia |
Asia Pacific |
Total |
Value of new business |
147 |
79 |
10 |
21 |
(48) |
46 |
68 |
24 |
200 |
36 |
24 |
9 |
33 |
416 |
Earnings from existing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing |
244 |
115 |
26 |
9 |
74 |
64 |
23 |
15 |
326 |
56 |
10 |
18 |
28 |
654 |
- expected existing |
151 |
24 |
5 |
2 |
56 |
6 |
9 |
- |
102 |
35 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
291 |
Experience variances |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense |
15 |
1 |
(1) |
(2) |
(22) |
4 |
- |
(1) |
(21) |
- |
(3) |
- |
(3) |
(9) |
- project and other related expenses1 |
(45) |
(7) |
(5) |
- |
(18) |
- |
(4) |
(5) |
(39) |
(9) |
- |
- |
- |
(93) |
- mortality/morbidity2 |
13 |
26 |
1 |
1 |
12 |
15 |
- |
1 |
56 |
- |
4 |
1 |
5 |
74 |
- lapses3 |
(17) |
(4) |
(5) |
(5) |
(1) |
18 |
(10) |
(9) |
(16) |
(2) |
(3) |
2 |
(1) |
(36) |
- other4 |
5 |
(29) |
(27) |
(6) |
29 |
(6) |
1 |
(1) |
(39) |
(20) |
(1) |
(8) |
(9) |
(63) |
|
(29) |
(13) |
(37) |
(12) |
- |
31 |
(13) |
(15) |
(59) |
(31) |
(3) |
(5) |
(8) |
(127) |
Operating assumption changes: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense5 |
(11) |
(8) |
(1) |
(3) |
(109) |
3 |
- |
(10) |
(128) |
(3) |
(3) |
- |
(3) |
(145) |
- project and other related expenses |
9 |
- |
- |
- |
4 |
- |
- |
- |
4 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
13 |
- mortality/morbidity6 |
39 |
- |
16 |
4 |
(77) |
3 |
(1) |
- |
(55) |
- |
1 |
(1) |
- |
(16) |
- lapses7 |
(53) |
65 |
4 |
(3) |
- |
(8) |
(7) |
(16) |
35 |
- |
(10) |
1 |
(9) |
(27) |
- other8 |
12 |
- |
15 |
1 |
(13) |
18 |
- |
11 |
32 |
- |
(8) |
4 |
(4) |
40 |
|
(4) |
57 |
34 |
(1) |
(195) |
16 |
(8) |
(15) |
(112) |
(3) |
(20) |
4 |
(16) |
(135) |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
119 |
66 |
23 |
20 |
145 |
10 |
10 |
6 |
280 |
39 |
8 |
6 |
14 |
452 |
Other operating variances9 |
7 |
98 |
(11) |
(1) |
104 |
(1) |
8 |
2 |
199 |
- |
3 |
- |
3 |
209 |
Earnings after tax and |
635 |
426 |
50 |
38 |
136 |
172 |
97 |
17 |
936 |
132 |
24 |
33 |
57 |
1,760 |
1. Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer a wider range of products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes. Expenses in the Netherlands reflect an overrun in Belgium following the acquisition of Swiss Life Belgium, and restructuring within the intermediary division.
2. Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a number of our businesses.
3. Lapse experience has been volatile, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In Poland, lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both life and pension products.
4. In France, other experience profits include the reduction in value arising from reductions in fees and commissions received. In Ireland, certain statutory provisions were increased following a review. The movement in the Netherlands reflects changes on group pension scheme contribution. In the USA, other experience reflects the cost of enhancing policyholder crediting rates.
5. In the Netherlands, expense assumptions have been updated following a review of expense allocations.
6. In the UK, favourable mortality assumption changes are in respect of mortality and morbidity changes across a range of products. In the Netherlands, mortality assumption changes reflect the impact of using a new industry mortality basis.
7. In the UK, an additional lapse provision has been set up in anticipation of higher short-term recession related withdrawals (pre tax £50 million) and higher mortgage and income protection claims (pre tax £20 million) to reflect rising unemployment. In France, persistency assumptions have been weakened following continual favourable experience on AFER products.
8. In the UK, other operating assumption changes include the impact of the with-profit special distribution. In Ireland, other assumption changes reflect a reduction in the assumed future tax charges. In Poland, other assumptions reflect a change in the pattern of future mortality charging structure.
9. Other operating variances in France are mainly in respect of the impact of the mutualisation of funds following the merger of two legal entities. In the Netherlands, changes are mainly in respect of aligning the profit sharing policy for existing group business in Belgium, following the acquisition of Swiss Life Belgium.
___________
Page 107
B3 - Geographical analysis of fund management operating earnings
The summarised consolidated income statement - MCEV basis, includes earnings from the group's fund management operations as analysed below. As explained in note B10, this excludes the proportion of the results of Aviva Investors fund management businesses and other fund management operations within the group that arise from the provision of fund management services to our Life businesses. These results are included within the Life MCEV operating earnings.
|
6 months |
Restated |
Full year |
United Kingdom |
1 |
13 |
34 |
Europe |
5 |
6 |
9 |
North America |
(5) |
1 |
(3) |
Asia Pacific |
(1) |
- |
1 |
Aviva Investors |
- |
20 |
41 |
United Kingdom |
(12) |
(8) |
(18) |
Netherlands |
6 |
6 |
2 |
Other Europe |
1 |
3 |
4 |
Asia Pacific |
1 |
9 |
13 |
Total |
(4) |
30 |
42 |
B4 - Analysis of other operations and regional costs
Where subsidiaries provide services to our life business, that proportion has been excluded. These results are included within the Life MCEV operating return.
|
6 months 2009 |
|
Restated |
|
Full year 2008 |
||||||
|
Regional costs |
Other operations |
Total |
|
Regional |
Other |
Total |
|
Regional |
Other |
Total |
United Kingdom |
- |
(36) |
(36) |
|
- |
(33) |
(33) |
|
- |
(12) |
(12) |
Europe |
(11) |
(29) |
(40) |
|
(12) |
(1) |
(13) |
|
(28) |
(88) |
(116) |
North America |
(9) |
1 |
(8) |
|
(5) |
1 |
(4) |
|
(14) |
2 |
(12) |
Asia Pacific |
(15) |
- |
(15) |
|
(9) |
2 |
(7) |
|
(23) |
- |
(23) |
Total |
(35) |
(64) |
(99) |
|
(26) |
(31) |
(57) |
|
(65) |
(98) |
(163) |
___________
Page 108
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B5 - Segmentation of condensed consolidated statement of financial position
|
30 June 2009 |
|
Restated |
|
Restated |
||||||
|
Life and related businesses |
General business and other |
Group |
|
Life and |
General business and other |
Group |
|
Life and |
General business and other |
Group |
Total assets before acquired value of in-force long-term business |
286,846 |
42,835 |
329,681 |
|
282,765 |
43,564 |
326,329 |
|
305,562 |
46,634 |
352,196 |
Acquired additional value of |
1,811 |
- |
1,811 |
|
1,806 |
- |
1,806 |
|
2,366 |
- |
2,366 |
Total assets included in the IFRS statement of financial position |
288,657 |
42,835 |
331,492 |
|
284,571 |
43,564 |
328,135 |
|
307,928 |
46,634 |
354,562 |
Liabilities of the long-term business |
(272,753) |
- |
(272,753) |
|
(270,179) |
- |
(270,179) |
|
(291,347) |
- |
(291,347) |
Liabilities of the general insurance and other businesses |
- |
(46,000) |
(46,000) |
|
- |
(43,282) |
(43,282) |
|
- |
(48,769) |
(48,769) |
Net assets on a statutory IFRS basis |
15,904 |
(3,165) |
12,739 |
|
14,392 |
282 |
14,674 |
|
16,581 |
(2,135) |
14,446 |
Additional value of in-force |
2,569 |
- |
2,569 |
|
6,714 |
- |
6,714 |
|
3,203 |
- |
3,203 |
Net assets on an MCEV basis2 |
18,473 |
(3,165) |
15,308 |
|
21,106 |
282 |
21,388 |
|
19,784 |
(2,135) |
17,649 |
Equity capital, capital reserves, shares held by employee trusts and other reserves |
|
|
7,168 |
|
|
|
6,771 |
|
|
|
8,675 |
IFRS basis retained earnings |
|
|
2,926 |
|
|
|
5,244 |
|
|
|
3,806 |
Additional MCEV basis retained earnings |
|
|
1,305 |
|
|
|
5,526 |
|
|
|
898 |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders |
|
|
11,399 |
|
|
|
17,541 |
|
|
|
13,379 |
Preference share capital and direct capital instruments |
|
|
1,190 |
|
|
|
1,190 |
|
|
|
1,190 |
Minority interests |
|
|
2,719 |
|
|
|
2,657 |
|
|
|
3,080 |
MCEV basis total equity |
|
|
15,308 |
|
|
|
21,388 |
|
|
|
17,649 |
1. The analysis between the group's and minority interests' share of the additional value of in-force long-term business is as follows:
|
30 June |
31 December 2008 |
Movement in period |
Group's share included in shareholders' funds |
1,305 |
898 |
407 |
Minority interests' share |
719 |
876 |
(157) |
Movements in AFS securities |
545 |
1,429 |
(884) |
Additional value of in-force long-term business |
2,569 |
3,203 |
(634) |
Additional value of in-force long-term business includes £69 million (30 June 2008: £nil; 31 December 2008: £nil) of assets classified as held for sale in the condensed consolidated statement of financial position - MCEV basis.
2. Analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis is made up as follows:
|
30 June |
Restated |
31 December |
Embedded value |
14,263 |
16,729 |
14,556 |
Minority interests |
2,090 |
2,022 |
2,367 |
|
16,353 |
18,751 |
16,923 |
Goodwill and intangible assets allocated to long-term business3 |
2,579 |
2,495 |
2,947 |
Notional allocation of IAS19 pension fund deficit to long-term business4 |
(459) |
(140) |
(86) |
Long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis |
18,473 |
21,106 |
19,784 |
3. Goodwill and intangible assets includes amounts related to associated undertakings and joint ventures.
4. The value of the Aviva Staff Pension Schemes deficit has been notionally allocated between segments, based on current funding and the Life proportion has been included within the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis. The pension fund deficit notionally allocated to long-term business is net of the proportion of funding borne by the UK with-profit funds.
___________
Page 109
B6 - Free surplus emergence
|
Existing business |
|
New business |
|
Total business |
||||||
30 June 2009 |
Transfer |
Return on net worth |
Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on net worth |
Release of required capital to free surplus |
Total existing business surplus generation |
|
Impact on |
Reduction in free surplus from required capital |
Total new business surplus generation |
|
Total free surplus generation |
United Kingdom |
76 |
49 |
180 |
3 |
308 |
|
(77) |
(62) |
(139) |
|
169 |
Europe |
319 |
73 |
(76) |
143 |
459 |
|
(130) |
(193) |
(323) |
|
136 |
North America |
99 |
47 |
(75) |
170 |
241 |
|
(191) |
(277) |
(468) |
|
(227) |
Asia Pacific |
46 |
4 |
18 |
18 |
86 |
|
(30) |
(30) |
(60) |
|
26 |
Total |
540 |
173 |
47 |
334 |
1,094 |
|
(428) |
(562) |
(990) |
|
104 |
|
Existing business |
|
New business |
|
Total business |
||||||
Restated |
Transfer |
Return on net worth |
Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on net worth |
Release of required capital to |
Total |
|
Impact on |
Reduction |
Total new business surplus generation |
|
Total free surplus generation |
United Kingdom |
208 |
56 |
125 |
29 |
418 |
|
(135) |
(81) |
(216) |
|
202 |
Europe |
284 |
118 |
17 |
221 |
640 |
|
(175) |
(230) |
(405) |
|
235 |
North America |
109 |
18 |
(1) |
90 |
216 |
|
(53) |
(174) |
(227) |
|
(11) |
Asia Pacific |
40 |
7 |
(4) |
(1) |
42 |
|
(31) |
(26) |
(57) |
|
(15) |
Total |
641 |
199 |
137 |
339 |
1,316 |
|
(394) |
(511) |
(905) |
|
411 |
|
Existing business |
|
New business |
|
Total business |
||||||
31 December 2008 |
Transfer |
Return on net worth |
Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on net worth |
Release of required capital to free surplus |
Total |
|
Impact on |
Reduction |
Total new business surplus generation |
|
Total free surplus generation |
United Kingdom |
403 |
119 |
736 |
85 |
1,343 |
|
(147) |
(159) |
(306) |
|
1,037 |
Europe |
619 |
280 |
(92) |
325 |
1,132 |
|
(438) |
(422) |
(860) |
|
272 |
North America |
194 |
39 |
(24) |
197 |
406 |
|
(118) |
(475) |
(593) |
|
(187) |
Asia Pacific |
73 |
14 |
1 |
(12) |
76 |
|
(55) |
(53) |
(108) |
|
(32) |
Total |
1,289 |
452 |
621 |
595 |
2,957 |
|
(758) |
(1,109) |
(1,867) |
|
1,090 |
___________
Page 110
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B7 - Segmental analysis of life and related business embedded value
|
Net worth |
|
|
|
30 June 2009 |
Free |
Required |
VIF |
Total Embedded value |
United Kingdom |
1,401 |
1,546 |
2,090 |
5,037 |
France2 |
(195) |
1,449 |
1,106 |
2,360 |
Ireland |
125 |
218 |
486 |
829 |
Italy |
231 |
230 |
148 |
609 |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
679 |
1,580 |
66 |
2,325 |
Poland |
138 |
109 |
617 |
864 |
Spain |
120 |
203 |
305 |
628 |
Other Europe |
42 |
25 |
151 |
218 |
Europe |
1,140 |
3,814 |
2,879 |
7,833 |
North America3 |
(455) |
1,376 |
(358) |
563 |
Asia |
105 |
156 |
216 |
477 |
Australia |
26 |
258 |
69 |
353 |
Asia Pacific |
131 |
414 |
285 |
830 |
Total |
2,217 |
7,150 |
4,896 |
14,263 |
1. Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.
2. France and USA have a positive surplus on a statutory basis.
3. Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £819 million at 30 June 2009 has been included within non-covered business.
|
Net worth |
|
|
|
Restated |
Free surplus |
Required |
VIF |
Total Embedded value |
United Kingdom |
931 |
1,395 |
3,450 |
5,776 |
France2 |
(58) |
1,260 |
1,149 |
2,351 |
Ireland |
156 |
205 |
502 |
863 |
Italy |
217 |
227 |
157 |
601 |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
516 |
1,936 |
1,004 |
3,456 |
Poland |
69 |
134 |
933 |
1,136 |
Spain |
83 |
191 |
379 |
653 |
Other Europe |
35 |
26 |
150 |
211 |
Europe |
1,018 |
3,979 |
4,274 |
9,271 |
North America3 |
(305) |
1,039 |
240 |
974 |
Asia |
110 |
66 |
228 |
404 |
Australia |
17 |
215 |
72 |
304 |
Asia Pacific |
127 |
281 |
300 |
708 |
Total |
1,771 |
6,694 |
8,264 |
16,729 |
1. Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.
2. France and USA have a positive surplus on a statutory basis.
3. Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £356 million at 30 June 2008 has been included within non-covered business.
___________
Page 111
B7 - Segmental analysis of life and related business embedded value continued
Restated |
Free surplus |
Required |
VIF |
Total Embedded value |
United Kingdom |
1,357 |
1,477 |
2,053 |
4,887 |
France2 |
(92) |
1,567 |
1,092 |
2,567 |
Ireland |
135 |
252 |
603 |
990 |
Italy |
261 |
235 |
149 |
645 |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) 2 |
(333) |
2,284 |
511 |
2,462 |
Poland |
115 |
134 |
979 |
1,228 |
Spain |
143 |
225 |
354 |
722 |
Other Europe |
43 |
34 |
159 |
236 |
Europe |
272 |
4,731 |
3,847 |
8,850 |
North America2, 3 |
(362) |
1,528 |
(1,102) |
64 |
Asia |
72 |
159 |
193 |
424 |
Australia |
9 |
253 |
69 |
331 |
Asia Pacific |
81 |
412 |
262 |
755 |
Total |
1,348 |
8,148 |
5,060 |
14,556 |
1. Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.
2. France, Netherlands and Aviva USA have a positive surplus on a statutory basis.
3. Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £1,128 million at 31 December 2008 has been included within non-covered business.
The shareholders' net worth is the market value of the shareholders' funds and the shareholders' interest in the surplus held in the non-profit component of the long-term business funds, determined on a statutory solvency basis and adjusted to add back any non-admissible assets. This is split between required capital, net of implicit items, and free surplus.
B8 - Risk allowance within present value of in-force (VIF)
Within the VIF in the tables on page 110, there are additional allowances for risks not included within the basic present value of future profits calculation.
30 June 2009 |
PVFP |
Frictional costs |
Non-hedgeable risks |
Time value of financial options and guarantees |
VIF |
United Kingdom |
2,518 |
(197) |
(157) |
(74) |
2,090 |
France |
1,775 |
(170) |
(124) |
(375) |
1,106 |
Ireland |
516 |
(11) |
(19) |
- |
486 |
Italy |
195 |
(22) |
(10) |
(15) |
148 |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
710 |
(175) |
(167) |
(302) |
66 |
Poland |
689 |
(17) |
(46) |
(9) |
617 |
Spain |
368 |
(16) |
(30) |
(17) |
305 |
Other Europe |
159 |
(3) |
(3) |
(2) |
151 |
Europe |
4,412 |
(414) |
(399) |
(720) |
2,879 |
North America |
105 |
(8) |
(33) |
(422) |
(358) |
Asia |
289 |
(17) |
(27) |
(29) |
216 |
Australia |
135 |
(31) |
(24) |
(11) |
69 |
Asia Pacific |
424 |
(48) |
(51) |
(40) |
285 |
Total |
7,459 |
(667) |
(640) |
(1,256) |
4,896 |
___________
Page 112
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B8 - Risk allowance within present value of in-force (PVIF) continued
Restated |
PVFP |
Frictional |
Non-hedgeable risks |
Time value of financial options and guarantees |
VIF |
United Kingdom |
3,893 |
(200) |
(154) |
(89) |
3,450 |
France |
1,726 |
(150) |
(133) |
(294) |
1,149 |
Ireland |
530 |
(10) |
(17) |
(1) |
502 |
Italy |
200 |
(24) |
(7) |
(12) |
157 |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
1,669 |
(306) |
(76) |
(283) |
1,004 |
Poland |
1,029 |
(19) |
(69) |
(8) |
933 |
Spain |
430 |
(20) |
(26) |
(5) |
379 |
Other Europe |
158 |
(4) |
(3) |
(1) |
150 |
Europe |
5,742 |
(533) |
(331) |
(604) |
4,274 |
North America |
516 |
(110) |
(27) |
(139) |
240 |
Asia |
256 |
(10) |
(9) |
(9) |
228 |
Australia |
130 |
(34) |
(18) |
(6) |
72 |
Asia Pacific |
386 |
(44) |
(27) |
(15) |
300 |
Total |
10,537 |
(887) |
(539) |
(847) |
8,264 |
Restated |
PVFP |
Frictional |
Non-hedgeable risks |
Time value of financial options and guarantees |
VIF |
United Kingdom |
2,470 |
(176) |
(165) |
(76) |
2,053 |
France |
1,827 |
(174) |
(147) |
(414) |
1,092 |
Ireland |
637 |
(10) |
(24) |
- |
603 |
Italy |
196 |
(22) |
(12) |
(13) |
149 |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
1,208 |
(246) |
(132) |
(319) |
511 |
Poland |
1,074 |
(14) |
(73) |
(8) |
979 |
Spain |
422 |
(18) |
(32) |
(18) |
354 |
Other Europe |
169 |
(4) |
(4) |
(2) |
159 |
Europe |
5,533 |
(488) |
(424) |
(774) |
3,847 |
North America |
(864) |
(15) |
(43) |
(180) |
(1,102) |
Asia |
262 |
(20) |
(23) |
(26) |
193 |
Australia |
132 |
(27) |
(26) |
(10) |
69 |
Asia Pacific |
394 |
(47) |
(49) |
(36) |
262 |
Total |
7,533 |
(726) |
(681) |
(1,066) |
5,060 |
___________
Page 113
B9 - Implied discount rates (IDR)
In the valuation of a block of business, the implied discount rate is the rate of discount such that a traditional embedded value for the business equates to the MCEV.
The cash flows projected are the expected future cash flows including expected investment cash flows from equities, bonds and properties earning a risk premium in excess of risk free, statutory reserves and required capital. The risk premiums used are consistent with those used in the expected existing business contribution within operating earnings. As the risk premiums are positive, a discount rate higher than risk-free is required to give a value equal to the market-consistent embedded value.
Average derived risk discount rates are shown below for the embedded value.
30 June 2009 |
Total in-force |
United Kingdom |
6.2% |
France |
7.0% |
Ireland |
4.7% |
Italy |
4.9% |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
13.5% |
Poland |
7.5% |
Spain |
5.3% |
Other Europe |
11.7% |
Europe |
8.2% |
North America |
21.4% |
Asia |
7.3% |
Australia |
8.8% |
Asia Pacific |
8.1% |
Total |
8.6% |
B10 - Analysis of fund management and service company business within embedded value
Aviva's MCEV methodology incorporates the impact of earnings arising from subsidiary undertakings providing administration, fund management and other services where these arise in relation to covered business. The principal subsidiaries of the Aviva group providing such services include Aviva Life Services Limited (UK) and Aviva Investors. The following table provides an analysis of the elements within the life and other related business embedded value:
|
6 months |
|
Restated |
|
Full year |
||
|
Fund management £m |
Other operations |
Total |
|
Total |
|
Total |
United Kingdom |
150 |
(153) |
(3) |
|
(2) |
|
(8) |
France |
151 |
63 |
214 |
|
170 |
|
212 |
Netherlands |
114 |
(135) |
(21) |
|
38 |
|
(23) |
United States1 |
195 |
- |
195 |
|
91 |
|
209 |
Other |
53 |
- |
53 |
|
39 |
|
69 |
Total |
663 |
(225) |
438 |
|
336 |
|
459 |
1. Following the establishment of Aviva Investors the fund management portion of the US business has been separately identified.
The 'look-through' value attributable to fund management is based on the level of after-tax profits expected to be earned in the future over the outstanding term of the covered business in respect of services provided to the group's life operations. The MCEV basis income statement excludes the actual statutory basis profits arising from the provision of fund management services to the group's life businesses. The MCEV income statement records the experience profit or loss compared to the assumed profitability, the expected return on the in-force value and the effect on the in-force value of changes to economic assumptions.
In the United Kingdom, Aviva Life Services Limited (UK) (ALS) is the main provider of administration services to the UK Life business. ALS incurs substantially all of the UK businesses' operating expenditure, comprising acquisition, maintenance and project costs. Costs are recharged to the UK Life companies (the product companies) on the basis of predetermined Management Services Agreements (MSAs).
___________
Page 114
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B11 - Summary of minority interest in life and related businesses' MCEV results
30 June 2009 |
France |
Ireland |
Italy |
Nether-lands |
Poland |
Spain |
Europe £m |
Asia Pacific |
Total |
Share-holders' interest |
Group |
Value of new business, net of tax |
7 |
1 |
29 |
6 |
3 |
28 |
74 |
- |
74 |
190 |
264 |
Life MCEV operating earnings after tax |
22 |
5 |
41 |
10 |
9 |
54 |
141 |
1 |
142 |
1,030 |
1,172 |
Life MCEV (loss)/ |
14 |
(11) |
40 |
(1) |
(24) |
1 |
19 |
4 |
23 |
1,047 |
1,070 |
Closing covered businesses' embedded value |
270 |
271 |
697 |
178 |
119 |
539 |
2,074 |
16 |
2,090 |
14,263 |
16,353 |
Restated |
France |
Ireland |
Italy |
Nether-lands |
Poland |
Spain |
Europe £m |
Asia Pacific |
Total |
Share-holders' interest |
Group |
Value of new business, net of tax |
7 |
1 |
12 |
3 |
3 |
43 |
69 |
- |
69 |
180 |
249 |
Life MCEV operating earnings after tax |
14 |
9 |
35 |
10 |
12 |
66 |
146 |
- |
146 |
774 |
920 |
Life MCEV (loss)/ |
(7) |
(6) |
27 |
(18) |
8 |
22 |
26 |
- |
26 |
(2,062) |
(2,036) |
Closing covered businesses' embedded value |
243 |
279 |
620 |
159 |
169 |
540 |
2,010 |
12 |
2,022 |
16,729 |
18,751 |
Restated |
France |
Ireland |
Italy |
Nether-lands |
Poland |
Spain |
Europe £m |
Asia Pacific |
Total |
Share-holders' interest |
Group |
Value of new business, net of tax |
9 |
3 |
27 |
12 |
7 |
73 |
131 |
- |
131 |
416 |
547 |
Life MCEV operating earnings after tax |
29 |
17 |
50 |
5 |
24 |
102 |
227 |
- |
227 |
1,760 |
1,987 |
Life MCEV (loss)/ |
18 |
(21) |
(30) |
(22) |
20 |
(36) |
(71) |
- |
(71) |
(6,651) |
(6,722) |
Closing covered businesses' embedded value |
304 |
323 |
727 |
204 |
177 |
617 |
2,352 |
15 |
2,367 |
14,556 |
16,923 |
There are no minority interests in the United Kingdom or North America.
B12 - Principal economic assumptions
(a) Economic assumptions - Deterministic calculations
Economic assumptions are derived actively, based on market yields on risk-free fixed interest assets at the end of each reporting period.
In setting the risk-free rate we have, wherever possible used the mid-price swap yield curve for an AA-rated bank.
The curve is extrapolated if necessary to get rates suitable to the liabilities. For markets in which there is no reliable swap yield curve the relevant government bond yields are used.
Required capital is shown as a multiple of the EU statutory minimum solvency margin or equivalent.
The adjustments made to swap rates to derive a risk-free rate for immediate annuity type contracts and all US contracts are shown below the reference rate table.
The principal economic assumptions used are as follows:
Reference rate and expense inflation
|
United Kingdom |
|
Eurozone (excluding |
||||||||
|
30 June |
30 June |
31 December |
31 December 2007 |
|
30 June |
30 June |
31 December 2008 |
31 December 2007 |
||
Reference rate - term 1 year |
1.6% |
6.4% |
2.8% |
5.7% |
|
1.4% |
5.4% |
2.5% |
4.8% |
||
Reference rate - term 5 years |
3.8% |
6.1% |
3.2% |
5.1% |
|
2.9% |
5.1% |
3.3% |
4.6%% |
|
|
Reference rate - term 10 years |
4.3% |
5.7% |
3.5% |
5.0% |
|
3.7% |
5.1% |
3.8% |
4.7% |
||
Reference rate - term 15 years |
|
4.6% |
5.3% |
3.8% |
4.9% |
|
4.2% |
5.1% |
3.9% |
4.9% |
|
Reference rate - term 20 years |
4.6% |
5.0% |
3.8% |
4.8% |
|
4.2% |
5.1% |
3.9% |
4.9% |
||
Expense inflation |
3.4% |
4.4% |
2.4% |
3.6% |
|
2.1% |
2.9% |
2.1% |
2.9% |
___________
Page 115
B12 - Principal economic assumptions continued
|
Netherlands1 |
|
Poland |
|||||||
|
30 June |
30 June |
31 December |
31 December |
|
30 June |
30 June |
31 December 2008 |
31 December 2007 |
|
Reference rate - term 1 year |
1.4% |
5.1% |
2.5% |
4.7% |
|
4.5% |
6.9% |
4.4% |
6.2% |
|
Reference rate - term 5 years |
2.9% |
4.7% |
3.3% |
4.6% |
|
5.5% |
6.4% |
4.3% |
5.8% |
|
Reference rate - term 10 years |
3.7% |
4.8% |
3.8% |
4.7% |
|
5.6% |
5.9% |
4.2% |
5.5% |
|
Reference rate - term 15 years |
4.1% |
5.0% |
4.0% |
4.9% |
|
5.5% |
5.7% |
4.1% |
5.4% |
|
Reference rate - term 20 years |
4.3% |
5.1% |
3.9% |
5.0% |
|
5.4% |
5.7% |
4.0% |
5.4% |
|
Expense inflation |
2.5% |
2.9% |
2.5% |
3.0% |
|
3.2% |
5.9% |
2.9% |
4.7% |
|
United States |
||||
|
30 June |
30 June |
31 December 2008 |
31 December 2007 |
|
Reference rate - term 1 year |
1.6% |
3.0% |
1.3% |
4.2% |
|
Reference rate - term 5 years |
3.0% |
4.0% |
2.2% |
4.2% |
|
Reference rate - term 10 years |
3.8% |
4.6% |
2.6% |
4.7% |
|
Reference rate - term 15 years |
4.1% |
4.8% |
2.9% |
4.9% |
|
Reference rate - term 20 years |
4.1% |
5.0% |
2.9% |
5.0% |
|
Expense inflation |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.5% |
1. The economic assumptions used in the Netherlands differ from those in the Eurozone as the Dutch bank swap rate is used in the Netherlands.
For service companies, expense inflation relates to the underlying expenses rather than the fees charged to the life company.
In current markets, the following adjustments are made to the swap rate for immediate annuity type contracts and all US contracts. The risk-free rate is taken as the swap yield curve for the currency of the liability, adjusted by:
|
New business |
|
Embedded value |
|||||
|
First half 2009 |
First half |
Third quarter 2008 |
Fourth quarter 2008 |
|
30 June 2009 |
30 June |
31 December 2008 |
UK |
1.50% |
0.55% |
0.85% |
1.45% |
|
1.25% |
0.50% |
1.50% |
France |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
0.50% |
0.35% |
1.00% |
Netherlands |
1.50% |
0.30% |
0.45% |
0.75% |
|
0.40% |
0.25% |
0.80% |
Spain |
1.00% |
0.35% |
0.55% |
0.95% |
|
0.50% |
0.35% |
1.00% |
US immediate annuities |
3.00% |
0.55% |
0.65% |
2.00% |
|
1.50% |
0.50% |
3.00% |
US deferred annuities and all other contracts |
2.50% |
0.55% |
0.65% |
1.50% |
|
1.25% |
0.50% |
2.50% |
Risk premium - used for operating profit, Implied Discount Rates (IDR), Internal Rates of Return (IRR) and payback period
For life and pensions operating earnings, Aviva uses normalised investment returns. For 2008, the normalised investment returns were expressed as one year swap returns plus an asset risk premium. For 2009, the normalised investment returns are expressed as a swap rate based on the typical duration of the assets held plus an asset risk premium. More detail is given in Note B1 - Basis of Preparation.
The use of asset risk premia only impacts operating earnings as expected returns reflect management's long-term expectations of asset returns in excess of the reference rate from investing in different asset classes. This assumption does not impact the embedded value or value of new business as asset risk premia are not recognised until earned. The asset risk premia set out in the table below are added to the ten year swap rate to calculate expected returns.
|
All territories |
|||
|
30 June |
30 June |
31 December 2008 |
31 December 2007 |
Equity risk premium |
3.5% |
3.5% |
3.5% |
3.5% |
Property risk premium |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
Future returns on corporate fixed interest investments are calculated from prospective yields less an adjustment for credit risk.
___________
Page 116
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B12 - Principal economic assumptions continued
Required capital and tax
|
Tax rates1 |
|
Required capital |
|||||
|
30 June |
30 June |
31 December |
31 December |
|
30 June |
30 June |
31 December |
United Kingdom |
28.0% |
28.0% |
28.0% |
28.0% |
|
100%/110% |
100%/110% |
100%/110% |
France |
34.4% |
34.4% |
34.4% |
34.4% |
|
110% |
110% |
110% |
Ireland |
12.5% |
12.5% |
12.5% |
12.5% |
|
150% |
150% |
150% |
Italy |
32.4% |
32.4% |
32.4% |
32.4% |
|
115%/184% |
115%/184% |
115%/184% |
Netherlands |
25.5% |
25.5% |
25.5% |
25.5% |
|
132% |
193% |
168% |
Poland |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
|
150% |
150% |
150% |
Spain |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
|
110%/125% |
110%/125% |
110%/125% |
United States |
0.0% |
35.0% |
0.0% |
35.0% |
|
325% |
325% |
325% |
1. The required capital in the United Kingdom under MCEV is 100% for unit-linked and other non-participating business and 110% for annuity business.
2. Required capital in Italy under MCEV is 184% of the EU minimum for Eurovita and 115% for other companies.
3. Required capital in the Netherlands is 132%. This capital level is the aggregate capital required for the Netherlands.
4. Required capital in Spain is 125% of the EU minimum for Aviva Vida y Pensiones and 115% for bancassurance companies.
5. Current tax legislation and rates have been assumed to continue unaltered except where changes in future tax rates have been announced.
Other economic assumptions
Required capital relating to with-profit business is assumed to be covered by the surplus within the with-profit funds and no effect has been attributed to shareholders. Bonus rates on participating business have been set at levels consistent with the economic assumptions. The distribution of profit between policyholders and shareholders within the with-profit funds assumes that the shareholder interest in conventional with-profit business in the United Kingdom and Ireland continues at the current rate of one-ninth of the cost of bonus.
(b) Economic Assumptions - Stochastic calculations
The calculation of time value of options and guarantees allows for expected management and policyholder actions in response to varying future investment conditions. The management actions modelled include changes to asset mix, bonus rates and rates of interest and other guarantees granted to policyholders. Modelled policyholder actions are described under 'Other assumptions'.
The embedded value of the US spread based products anticipates the application of management discretion allowed for contractually within the policies, subject to contractual guarantees. This includes the ability to change the crediting rates and indexed strategies available within the policy. Consideration is taken of the economic environment assumed in future projections and returns in excess of the reference rate are not assumed. Anticipated market and policyholder reaction to management action has been considered. The anticipated management action is consistent with current decision rules and has been approved and signed off by management and legal counsel.
Model - United Kingdom, Europe (excluding Delta Lloyd) and North America
Swap rates are generated by a model, the LIBOR Market Model (LMM), that projects a full swap curve at monthly intervals. Forward rates are assumed to have a log-normal distribution which guarantees non-negative interest rates. The model is calibrated to at-the-money swaptions of a variety of terms and tenors. Swaption volatilities are taken from Bloomberg. Tests have been performed to ensure that sufficient scenarios have been used that the result converges to the stochastic value of the business being valued.
The total annual return on equities is calculated as the return on one-year swaps plus an excess return. This excess return is modelled using a log-normal model where volatility varies by time horizon. This allows the model to capture the term structure of implied volatilities. The model is calibrated to at-the-money options of a variety of terms. Option volatilities are taken from a survey of investment banks.
The model also generates property total returns and real yield curves, although these are not significant asset classes for Aviva outside the UK. In the absence of liquid market data, the volatilities of these asset classes are based on historic data.
Assumptions for correlations between asset classes have been set based on historic data.
___________
Page 117
B12 - Principal economic assumptions continued
Model - Netherlands
In the Netherlands, yield curves are based on De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) yield curve data.
The interest rate model used is a short rate G2++ model. The model is calibrated to the DNB yield curve and the swaption implied volatilities. Swaption implied volatilities are taken from Bloomberg. The equity model is a Heston model.
Asset classes
The significant asset classes for UK participating business are equities, property and long-term fixed rate bonds. The most significant assumption is the distribution of future long-term interest rates, since this is the most important factor in the cost of guaranteed annuity options.
For many businesses, including US, France and Netherlands, the most important assets are fixed rate bonds of various durations.
Summary statistics
Swaption implied volatilities
The implied volatility is that determined by Black-Scholes' formula to reproduce the market price of the option. The following table sets out the model swaption implied volatilities.
|
30 June 20091 |
|
30 June 2008 |
|
31 December 2008 |
|||||||||
Option length |
10 years |
15 years |
20 years |
25 years |
|
10 years |
15 years |
20 years |
25 years |
|
10 years |
15 years |
20 years |
25 years |
UK sterling |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 years |
n/a |
n/a |
11.8% |
n/a |
|
n/a |
n/a |
11.8% |
n/a |
|
n/a |
n/a |
11.8% |
n/a |
15 years |
n/a |
n/a |
11.9% |
n/a |
|
n/a |
n/a |
11.9% |
n/a |
|
n/a |
n/a |
11.9% |
n/a |
20 years |
n/a |
n/a |
12.1% |
n/a |
|
n/a |
n/a |
12.1% |
n/a |
|
n/a |
n/a |
12.1% |
n/a |
25 years |
n/a |
n/a |
12.4% |
n/a |
|
n/a |
n/a |
12.4% |
n/a |
|
n/a |
n/a |
12.4% |
n/a |
Euro |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 years |
11.7% |
11.7% |
11.7% |
11.8% |
|
11.3% |
11.0% |
10.5% |
10.1% |
|
11.7% |
11.7% |
11.7% |
11.8% |
15 years |
10.9% |
10.9% |
10.4% |
10.9% |
|
10.8% |
10.7% |
10.3% |
9.9% |
|
10.9% |
10.9% |
10.4% |
10.9% |
20 years |
10.5% |
10.4% |
10.4% |
10.3% |
|
10.4% |
9.9% |
9.5% |
9.2% |
|
10.5% |
10.4% |
10.4% |
10.3% |
25 years |
10.0% |
10.0% |
9.9% |
9.5% |
|
9.9% |
9.4% |
9.1% |
8.8% |
|
10.0% |
10.0% |
9.9% |
9.5% |
Netherlands |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 years |
11.6% |
11.6% |
11.7% |
11.7% |
|
11.3% |
11.2% |
11.3% |
11.4% |
|
11.6% |
11.6% |
11.7% |
11.7% |
15 years |
10.8% |
10.7% |
10.6% |
10.8% |
|
10.8% |
10.6% |
10.7% |
10.8% |
|
10.8% |
10.7% |
10.6% |
10.8% |
20 years |
10.5% |
10.3% |
10.2% |
10.3% |
|
10.8% |
10.5% |
10.4% |
10.5% |
|
10.5% |
10.3% |
10.2% |
10.3% |
25 years |
10.0% |
9.8% |
9.8% |
9.7% |
|
10.1% |
10.3% |
10.1% |
10.2% |
|
10.0% |
9.8% |
9.8% |
9.7% |
US dollar |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 years |
15.2% |
14.4% |
14.0% |
14.0% |
|
18.3% |
15.7% |
13.6% |
11.9% |
|
15.2% |
14.4% |
14.0% |
14.0% |
15 years |
13.9% |
13.0% |
12.8% |
12.7% |
|
15.7% |
13.2% |
11.3% |
9.8% |
|
13.9% |
13.0% |
12.8% |
12.7% |
20 years |
13.3% |
12.4% |
12.1% |
12.1% |
|
13.4% |
11.3% |
9.6% |
8.4% |
|
13.3% |
12.4% |
12.1% |
12.1% |
25 years |
12.9% |
11.9% |
11.6% |
11.7% |
|
12.0% |
10.2% |
8.8% |
8.0% |
|
12.9% |
11.9% |
11.6% |
11.7% |
1. Volatilities are calibrated to end August 2008.
___________
Page 118
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B12 - Principal economic assumptions continued
Equity implied volatilities
The implied volatility is that determined by the Black-Scholes' formula to reproduce the market price of the option. The following tables set out the model equity implied volatilities.
30 June 2009 |
Country |
||||||
UK |
France |
Italy |
Ireland |
Netherlands |
Spain |
US |
|
5 years |
25.8% |
24.9% |
24.4% |
24.5% |
26.1% |
26.3% |
24.6% |
10 years |
27.2% |
26.3% |
n/a |
26.2% |
26.8% |
28.8% |
27.3% |
15 years |
27.7% |
n/a |
n/a |
27.0% |
27.1% |
n/a |
28.9% |
30 June 2008 |
Country |
||||||
UK |
France |
Italy |
Ireland |
Netherlands |
Spain |
US |
|
5 years |
25.8% |
26.0% |
22.4% |
24.6% |
24.0% |
24.8% |
23.8% |
10 years |
27.2% |
27.5% |
24.4% |
25.9% |
25.5% |
26.0% |
25.9% |
15 years |
27.7% |
29.5% |
24.6% |
26.9% |
26.5% |
27.3% |
28.0% |
30 December 2008 |
Country |
||||||
UK |
France |
Italy |
Ireland |
Netherlands |
Spain |
US |
|
5 years |
25.8% |
24.9% |
24.4% |
24.5% |
26.1% |
26.3% |
24.6% |
10 years |
27.2% |
26.3% |
n/a |
26.2% |
26.8% |
28.8% |
27.3% |
15 years |
27.7% |
n/a |
n/a |
27.0% |
27.1% |
n/a |
28.9% |
1. Volatilities are calibrated to end August 2008.
Property implied volatilities
Best estimate levels of volatility have been used, in the absence of meaningful option prices from which implied levels of volatility can be derived.
For the UK and the Netherlands, model property implied volatility is 15% for 30 June 2009 (30 June 2008: 15%).
Demographic assumptions
Assumed future mortality, morbidity and lapse rates have been derived from an analysis of Aviva's recent operating experience with a view to giving a best estimate of future experience. We have anticipated future changes in experience where that is appropriate, eg we have allowed for improvements in future policyholder longevity.
We have set the assumptions based on a best estimate of shareholder outcomes. In particular, where the policyholder behaviour varies with economic experience, we have set assumptions which are dynamic, ie vary depending on the economic assumptions. For example, surrender and option take up rate assumptions that vary according to the investment scenario under consideration have been used in the calculation of the time value of options and guarantees, based on our assessment of likely policyholder behaviour in different investment scenarios.
Additionally, where demographic experience is not driven by economic scenarios but is asymmetric on a stand-alone basis, the best estimate assumption considers the weighted-average expected experience, not simply the median or most likely outcome.
Expense assumptions
Management expenses and operating expenses of holding companies attributed to life and related businesses have been included in the MCEV calculations and split between expenses relating to the acquisition of new business, the maintenance of business in-force and project expenses. Future expense assumptions include an allowance for maintenance expenses and a proportion of recurring project expenses. Certain expenses of an exceptional nature, when they occur, are identified separately and are generally charged as incurred. No future productivity gains have been anticipated.
Where subsidiary companies provide administration, investment management or other services to our life businesses, the value of profits or losses arising from these services have been included in the embedded value and value of new business.
Non-hedgeable risk
A charge of 2.5% has been applied to the group-diversified capital required on a 1-in-200 one-year basis over the remaining lifetime of in-force business.
___________
Page 119
B12 - Principal economic assumptions continued
(c) Other assumptions
Valuation of debt
Borrowings in the MCEV consolidated statement of financial position are valued on an IFRS basis, consistent with the primary financial statements. At 30 June 2009 the market value of the group's external debt, subordinated debt, preference shares including General Accident plc preference shares of £250 million (classified as minority interests) and direct capital instrument was £5,422 million (30 June 2008: £5,753 million; 31 December 2008: £4,911 million).
|
30 June |
Restated |
31 December 2008 |
Borrowings per summarised consolidated statement of financial position - MCEV basis |
14,325 |
13,373 |
15,201 |
Add: amount included within held for sale |
- |
13 |
- |
Less: Securitised mortgage funding |
(6,807) |
(7,620) |
(7,785) |
Borrowings excluding non-recourse funding - MCEV basis |
7,518 |
5,766 |
7,416 |
Less: Operational financing by businesses |
(1,694) |
(1,134) |
(1,891) |
External debt and subordinated debt - MCEV basis |
5,824 |
4,632 |
5,525 |
Add: Preference shares (including General Accident plc) and direct capital instrument |
1,440 |
1,440 |
1,440 |
External debt, subordinated debt, preference shares and direct capital instrument - MCEV basis |
7,264 |
6,072 |
6,965 |
Effect of marking these instruments to market |
(1,842) |
(319) |
(2,054) |
Market value of external debt, subordinated debt, preference shares and direct capital instrument |
5,422 |
5,753 |
4,911 |
Other
It has been assumed that there will be no changes to the methods and bases used to calculate the statutory technical provisions and current surrender values, except where driven by varying future investment conditions under stochastic economic scenarios.
B13 - Sensitivity analysis
(a) Economic assumptions
The following tables show the sensitivity of the embedded value and the value of new business to:
50 basis point reduction in the adjustment to risk free rates for immediate annuity type contracts and all US contracts;
one and two percentage point increase and decrease in the risk-free rate, including all consequential changes (including assumed investment returns for all asset classes, market values of fixed interest assets, risk discount rates);
10% increase and decrease in market values of equity and property assets;
25% increase in equity and swaption volatilities;
50 basis point increase and decrease in credit spreads; and
decrease in the level of required capital to 100% EU minimum (or equivalent).
In each sensitivity calculation, all other assumptions remain unchanged except where they are directly affected by the revised economic conditions. For example, future bonus rates are automatically adjusted to reflect sensitivity changes to future investment returns. Some of the sensitivity scenarios may have consequential effects on valuation bases, where the basis for certain blocks of business is actively updated to reflect current economic circumstances. Consequential valuation impacts on the sensitivities are allowed for where an active valuation basis is used. Where businesses have a target asset mix, the portfolio is re-balanced after a significant market movement otherwise no re-balancing is assumed.
For new business, the sensitivities reflect the impact of a change immediately after inception of the policy.
In general, the magnitude of the sensitivities will reflect the size of the embedded values, though this will vary as the sensitivities have different impacts on the different components of the embedded value. In addition, other factors can have a material impact, such as the nature of the options and guarantees, as well as the types of investments held.
The credit spread sensitivities assume that the change relates to credit risk and not liquidity risk; in practice, credit spread movements may be partially offset due to changes in liquidity risk.
___________
Page 120
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B13 - Sensitivity analysis continued
Sensitivities will also vary according to the current economic assumptions, mainly due to the impact of changes to both the intrinsic cost and time value of options and guarantees. Options and guarantees are the main reason for the asymmetry of the sensitivities where the guarantee impacts to different extents under the different scenarios. This can be seen in the sensitivity of a 1%-2% movement in the interest rate for the Netherlands and US, where there is a significant amount of business with investment return guarantees.
Embedded value
|
|
|
Interest Rates |
||||
30 June 2009 |
As reported on page 110 |
50bp |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
|
United Kingdom |
5,037 |
(588) |
(145) |
160 |
(300) |
325 |
|
France |
2,360 |
(21) |
(55) |
(30) |
(190) |
(245) |
|
Ireland |
829 |
- |
(30) |
35 |
(55) |
45 |
|
Italy |
609 |
- |
15 |
(30) |
15 |
(100) |
|
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
2,325 |
(280) |
85 |
(480) |
5 |
(1,245) |
|
Poland |
864 |
- |
(30) |
40 |
(55) |
85 |
|
Spain |
628 |
(34) |
(15) |
15 |
(30) |
30 |
|
Other Europe |
218 |
- |
(5) |
5 |
(10) |
10 |
|
Europe |
7,833 |
(335) |
(35) |
(445) |
(320) |
(1,420) |
|
North America |
563 |
(695) |
- |
(125) |
(35) |
(475) |
|
Asia |
477 |
- |
10 |
(35) |
20 |
(80) |
|
Australia |
353 |
- |
(10) |
10 |
(20) |
20 |
|
Asia Pacific |
830 |
- |
- |
(25) |
- |
(60) |
|
Total |
14,263 |
(1,618) |
(180) |
(435) |
(655) |
(1,630) |
|
* 40bps in respect of the Netherlands |
The sensitivity to adjusting risk-free rates by 50bp only reflects a reduction in future investment returns and discount rates. The interest rate sensitivities include consequential impacts such as the change in market values of fixed assets as well as the change in future investment returns and discount rates.
|
Equity/property |
|||
|
As reported on page 110 |
Market values |
Volatility 25% £m |
|
30 June 2009 |
10% |
10% decrease |
||
United Kingdom |
5,037 |
295 |
(290) |
(25) |
France |
2,360 |
135 |
(140) |
(120) |
Ireland |
829 |
10 |
(10) |
- |
Italy |
609 |
5 |
(5) |
(5) |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
2,325 |
375 |
(375) |
(50) |
Poland |
864 |
10 |
(10) |
- |
Spain |
628 |
10 |
(10) |
(5) |
Other Europe |
218 |
- |
- |
- |
Europe |
7,833 |
545 |
(550) |
(180) |
North America |
563 |
- |
- |
- |
Asia |
477 |
10 |
(10) |
- |
Australia |
353 |
5 |
(5) |
- |
Asia Pacific |
830 |
15 |
(15) |
- |
Total |
14,263 |
855 |
(855) |
(205) |
___________
Page 121
B13 - Sensitivity analysis continued
|
As reported on page 110 |
Swaption implied volatilities |
Corporate bond |
EU minimum |
|
30 June 2009 |
50bps |
50bps |
|||
United Kingdom |
5,037 |
- |
(605) |
655 |
10 |
France |
2,360 |
(100) |
(135) |
135 |
15 |
Ireland |
829 |
- |
- |
- |
5 |
Italy |
609 |
(5) |
- |
- |
5 |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
2,325 |
(40) |
(120) |
135 |
15 |
Poland |
864 |
- |
- |
- |
5 |
Spain |
628 |
- |
(55) |
60 |
- |
Other Europe |
218 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Europe |
7,833 |
(145) |
(310) |
330 |
45 |
North America |
563 |
(145) |
(510) |
475 |
5 |
Asia |
477 |
- |
(10) |
10 |
10 |
Australia |
353 |
- |
(5) |
5 |
5 |
Asia Pacific |
830 |
- |
(15) |
15 |
15 |
Total |
14,263 |
(290) |
(1,440) |
1,475 |
75 |
Value of new business
30 June 2009 |
|
|
Risk free rates |
|||
As reported on page 104 |
50bp |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
|
United Kingdom |
72 |
(34) |
(4) |
4 |
(8) |
7 |
France |
40 |
- |
1 |
(4) |
6 |
(8) |
Ireland |
3 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Italy |
25 |
- |
(2) |
2 |
(4) |
2 |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
(28) |
(6) |
38 |
(49) |
52 |
(111) |
Poland |
19 |
- |
(1) |
1 |
(2) |
3 |
Spain |
26 |
(1) |
(1) |
1 |
(2) |
2 |
Other Europe |
5 |
- |
(1) |
1 |
- |
(1) |
Europe |
90 |
(7) |
34 |
(48) |
50 |
(113) |
North America |
16 |
(98) |
(22) |
13 |
(47) |
5 |
Asia |
5 |
- |
3 |
(5) |
6 |
(12) |
Australia |
7 |
- |
(1) |
1 |
(2) |
2 |
Asia Pacific |
12 |
- |
2 |
(4) |
4 |
(10) |
Total |
190 |
(139) |
10 |
(35) |
(1) |
(111) |
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Page 122
Aviva MCEV condensed financial statements continued
B13 - Sensitivity analysis continued
30 June 2009 |
Equity/property |
|||
As reported on page 104 |
Market values |
Volatility |
||
10% |
10% decrease |
|||
United Kingdom |
72 |
2 |
(3) |
(2) |
France |
40 |
3 |
(2) |
(2) |
Ireland |
3 |
- |
- |
- |
Italy |
25 |
- |
- |
- |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
(28) |
- |
- |
(2) |
Poland |
19 |
- |
- |
- |
Spain |
26 |
- |
- |
- |
Other Europe |
5 |
- |
- |
- |
Europe |
90 |
3 |
(2) |
(4) |
North America |
16 |
- |
- |
- |
Asia |
5 |
- |
- |
- |
Australia |
7 |
- |
- |
- |
Asia Pacific |
12 |
- |
- |
- |
Total |
190 |
5 |
(5) |
(6) |
|
As reported on page 104 |
Swaption implied volatilities |
Corporate bond |
EU minimum |
|
30 June 2009 |
50bps |
50bps |
|||
United Kingdom |
72 |
- |
(15) |
17 |
- |
France |
40 |
- |
(9) |
8 |
- |
Ireland |
3 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Italy |
25 |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
(28) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Poland |
19 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Spain |
26 |
- |
(3) |
3 |
- |
Other Europe |
5 |
- |
- |
(1) |
1 |
Europe |
90 |
- |
(12) |
10 |
2 |
North America |
16 |
(4) |
(38) |
25 |
1 |
Asia |
5 |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
Australia |
7 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Asia Pacific |
12 |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
Total |
190 |
(4) |
(65) |
52 |
4 |
(b) Non-economic assumptions
The following tables below show the sensitivity of the embedded value and the value of new business to the following changes in non-economic assumptions:
10% decrease in maintenance expenses (a 10% sensitivity on a base expense assumption of £10 pa would represent an expense assumption of £9 pa). Where there is a 'look through' into service company expenses the fee charged by the service company is unchanged while the underlying expense decreases;
10% decrease in lapse rates (a 10% sensitivity on a base assumption of 5% pa would represent a lapse rate of 4.5% pa); and
5% decrease in both mortality and morbidity rates disclosed separately for life assurance and annuity business.
No future management actions are modelled in reaction to the changing non-economic assumptions. In each sensitivity calculation all other assumptions remain unchanged. No changes to valuation bases have been included.
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Page 123
B13 - Sensitivity analysis continued
Embedded value
30 June 2009 |
As reported |
10% decrease in maintenance expenses |
10% decrease in lapse rates |
5% |
5% |
United Kingdom |
5,037 |
170 |
100 |
65 |
(195) |
France |
2,360 |
40 |
35 |
25 |
- |
Ireland |
829 |
15 |
25 |
5 |
(5) |
Italy |
609 |
5 |
- |
- |
- |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
2,325 |
150 |
- |
35 |
(90) |
Poland |
864 |
25 |
35 |
10 |
- |
Spain |
628 |
10 |
45 |
15 |
(5) |
Other Europe |
218 |
5 |
15 |
- |
- |
Europe |
7,833 |
250 |
155 |
90 |
(100) |
North America |
563 |
55 |
90 |
50 |
(10) |
Asia |
477 |
15 |
5 |
10 |
- |
Australia |
353 |
5 |
15 |
15 |
- |
Asia Pacific |
830 |
20 |
20 |
25 |
- |
Total |
14,263 |
495 |
365 |
230 |
(305) |
Value of new business
30 June 2009 |
As reported |
10% decrease in maintenance expenses |
10% decrease in lapse rates |
5% |
5% |
United Kingdom |
72 |
10 |
8 |
4 |
(5) |
France |
40 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
- |
Ireland |
3 |
- |
1 |
- |
- |
Italy |
25 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
- |
Netherlands (including Belgium and Germany) |
(28) |
9 |
3 |
1 |
(1) |
Poland |
19 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
- |
Spain |
26 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
- |
Other Europe |
5 |
1 |
2 |
- |
- |
Europe |
90 |
14 |
15 |
5 |
(1) |
North America |
16 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
- |
Asia |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
- |
Australia |
7 |
- |
1 |
1 |
- |
Asia Pacific |
12 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
- |
Total |
190 |
33 |
29 |
18 |
(6) |
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Page 124
Statement of directors' responsibilities in respect of the Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) basis
When compliance with the European Insurance CFO Forum Market Consistent Embedded Value Principles (MCEV Principles), published in June 2008, is stated, those principles require the directors to prepare supplementary information in accordance with the methodology contained in the MCEV Principles and to disclose and explain any non-compliance with the guidance included in the MCEV Principles.
In preparing this supplementary information, the directors have done so in accordance with these MCEV Principles and have also fully complied with all the guidance included therein, with the exception of the use of an adjusted risk-free yield due to current market conditions for all contracts that contain features similar to immediate annuities and are backed by appropriate assets, including paid up group deferred annuities in the Netherlands, and deferred annuities and all other contracts in the US. Specifically, the directors have:
determined assumptions on a realistic basis, having regard to past, current and expected future experience and to relevant external data, and then applied them consistently;
made estimates that are reasonable and consistent; and,
provided additional disclosures when compliance with the specific requirements of the MCEV Principles is insufficient to enable users to understand the impact of particular transactions, other events and conditions and the group's financial position and financial performance.
Information on the directors can be found on page 84 of Aviva plc's 2008 Annual Report and Accounts.
By order of the Board
Philip Scott
Chief Financial Officer
5 August 2009
______________________
Page 125
Independent Review report to Aviva plc
Introduction
We have been engaged by the Company to review the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report for the six months ended 30 June 2009 which comprises the Condensed Consolidated Income Statement - MCEV Basis, the Condensed Statement of Comprehensive Income - MCEV Basis, the Condensed Statement of Changes in Equity - MCEV Basis, the Condensed Consolidated Statement of Financial Position - MCEV Basis, the Reconciliation of Shareholders' Equity on IFRS and MCEV bases, the Reconciliation of IFRS Total Equity to MCEV Net Worth, the Group MCEV Analysis of Earnings and the related notes B1 to B13 on pages 91 to 123; and Analysis of Life and Pension Earnings on pages 23 to 24. We have read the other information contained in the half-yearly financial report and considered whether it contains any apparent misstatements or material inconsistencies with the information in the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements.
We have reported separately on the condensed financial statements of Aviva plc for the six months ended 30 June 2009. The information contained in the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements should be read in conjunction with the condensed set of financial statements prepared on an IFRS basis. This information is described within the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report as having being reviewed.
This report is made solely to the Company in accordance with guidance contained in International Standards on Review Engagements (UK and Ireland) 2410, 'Review of Interim Financial Information Performed by the Independent Auditor of the Entity' issued by the Auditing Practices Board for use in the United Kingdom (ISRE 2410). To the fullest extent permitted by law, we do not accept or assume responsibility to anyone other than the Company, for our work, for this report, or for the conclusions we have formed.
Directors' Responsibilities
The Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report is the responsibility of, and has been approved by, the directors. The directors are responsible for preparing the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report in accordance with the Basis of Preparation set out on pages 97 to 100.
Our Responsibility
Our responsibilities, as independent auditors, in relation to the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report are set out in our engagement letter with you dated 5 August 2009. We report to you our opinion as to whether the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report have been properly prepared, in all material respects, in accordance with the Basis of Preparation set out on pages 97 to 100.
Scope of Review
We conducted our review in accordance with ISRE 2410. A review of interim financial information consists of making enquiries, primarily of persons responsible for financial and accounting matters, and applying analytical and other review procedures. A review is substantially less in scope than an audit conducted in accordance with International Standards on Auditing (UK and Ireland) and consequently does not enable us to obtain assurance that we would become aware of all significant matters that might be identified in an audit. Accordingly, we do not express an audit opinion.
Conclusion
Based on our review, nothing has come to our attention that causes us to believe that the Aviva MCEV condensed set of financial statements in the half-yearly financial report for the six months ended 30 June 2009 is not prepared, in all material respects, in accordance with the Basis of Preparation set out on pages 97 to 100.
Ernst & Young LLP
London
5 August 2009
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Page 126
MCEV Glossary
Definitions of group key performance indicators and other terms
Asymmetric risk |
Risks that will cause shareholder profits to vary where the variation above and below the average are not equal in distribution. |
CFO Forum |
The CFO Forum www.cfoforum.nl is a high-level group formed by the Chief Financial Officers of major European listed and non-listed insurance companies. Its aim is to discuss issues relating to proposed new accounting regulations for their businesses and how they can create greater transparency for investors. The Forum was created in 2002, the Market Consistent Embedded Value principles were launched in June 2008 and CFO Forum members across Europe have agreed to adopt these for their 2009 published accounts. The principles are a further development of the European Embedded Value principles first launched in May 2004. |
Cost of non-hedgeable risks |
This is the cost of undertaking those risks for which a deep and liquid market in which to hedge that risk does not exist. This can include both financial risks and non-financial risks such as mortality, persistency and expense. |
Covered business |
The contracts to which the MCEV methodology has been applied. |
EU solvency |
The excess of assets over liabilities and the worldwide minimum solvency margins, excluding goodwill and the additional value of in-force long-term business, and excluding the surplus held in the group's life funds. The group solvency calculation is determined according to the UK Financial Services Authority application of EU Insurance Group's Directive rules. |
Financial options and guarantees |
Features of the covered business conferring potentially valuable guarantees underlying, or options to change, the level or nature of policyholder benefits and exercisable at the discretion of the policyholder, whose potential value is impacted by the behaviour of financial variables. |
Free surplus |
The amount of any capital and surplus allocated to, but not required to support, the in-force covered business. |
Frictional costs |
The additional taxation and investment costs incurred by shareholders through investing the Required Capital in the Company rather than directly. |
Funds under management |
Represents all assets actively managed or administered by or on behalf of the group including those funds managed by third parties. |
Funds under management |
Represents all assets actively managed or administered by the fund management operations of the group. |
Group MCEV |
A measure of the total consolidated value of the group with covered life business included on an MCEV basis and non-covered business (including pension schemes and goodwill) included on an IFRS basis. |
Gross risk-free yields |
Gross of tax yields on risk-free fixed interest investments, generally swap rates under MCEV. |
Holding company |
A legal entity with a function of being a consolidating entity for primary financial reporting of covered business. |
IFRS operating profit |
From continuing operations on an IFRS basis, stated before tax attributable to shareholders' profits, impairment of goodwill and exceptional items. |
Implicit items |
Amounts allowed by local regulators to be deducted from capital amounts when determining the EU required minimum margin. |
Inherited estate |
The assets of the long-term with-profit funds less the realistic reserves for non-profit policies, less asset shares aggregated across the with-profit policies and any additional amounts expected at the valuation date to be paid to in-force policyholders in the future in respect of smoothing costs and guarantees. |
Life business |
Subsidiaries selling life and pensions contracts that are classified as covered business under MCEV. |
Life MCEV |
The MCEV balance sheet value of covered business as at the reporting date. Excludes non-covered business including pension schemes and goodwill. |
Life MCEV operating earnings |
Operating earnings on the MCEV basis relating to the lines of business included in the embedded value calculations. From continuing operations and is stated before tax, impairment of goodwill and exceptional items. |
Life MCEV earnings |
Total earnings on the MCEV basis relating to the lines of business included in the embedded value calculations. From continuing operations. |
Look-through basis |
Inclusion of the capitalised value of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the extent that they relate to covered business. |
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Page 127
Long-term savings |
Includes life and pension sales calculated under MCEV and retail investment sales. |
Market consistent |
A measurement approach where economic assumptions are such that projected asset cash flows are valued consistently with current market prices for traded assets. |
MCEV |
Aviva's Market Consistent Embedded Value methodology which is in accordance with the MCEV Principles published by the CFO Forum in June 2008 with the exception of the use of an adjusted risk-free yield due to current market conditions for all contracts that contain features similar to immediate annuities and are backed by appropriate assets, including paid up group deferred annuities in the Netherlands, and deferred annuities and all other contracts in the US. |
Net asset value per ordinary share |
Net asset value divided by the number of ordinary shares in issue. Net asset value is based on equity shareholders' funds. |
Net worth |
The market value of the shareholders' funds and the shareholders' interest in the surplus held in the non-profit component of the long-term business funds, determined on a statutory solvency basis and adjusted to add back any non-admissible assets, and consists of the required capital and free surplus. |
New business margin |
New business margins are calculated as the value of new business divided by the present value of new business premiums (PVNBP), and expressed as a percentage. |
Present value of new business premiums (PVNBP) |
Present value of new regular premiums plus 100% of single premiums, calculated using assumptions consistent with those used to determine the value of new business. |
Required capital |
The amount of assets, over and above the value placed on liabilities in respect of covered business, whose distribution to shareholders is restricted. |
Risk-free rate (reference rate in CFO Forum terminology) |
The risk-free return that can be earned on investments in the currency of the liability being valued. In stable markets, including the period from 31 December 2006 to 30 June 2007, the risk-free rate is taken as the swap curve yield. In current markets, including the period from 1 July 2007, the risk-free rate is taken as swaps except for all contracts that contain features similar to immediate annuities and are backed by appropriate assets, including paid up group deferred annuities in the Netherlands, and deferred annuities and all other contracts in the US. The adjusted risk-free rate is taken as swaps plus the additional return available for products and where backing asset portfolios can be held to maturity. |
Service companies |
Companies providing administration or fund management services to the covered business. |
Solvency cover |
The excess of the regulatory value of total assets over total liabilities, divided by the regulatory value of the required minimum solvency margin. |
Spread business |
Contracts where a significant source of shareholder profits is the taking of credit spread risk that is not passed on to policyholders. The most significant spread business in Aviva are immediate annuities and US deferred annuities and life business. |
Statutory basis |
The valuation basis and approach used for reporting financial statements to local regulators. |
Stochastic techniques |
Techniques that incorporate the potential future variability in assumptions. |
Symmetric risks |
Risks that will cause shareholder profits to vary where the variation above and below the average are equal and opposite. Financial theory says that investors do not require compensation for non-market risks that are symmetrical as the risks can be diversified away by investors. |
Time value and intrinsic value |
A financial option or guarantee has two elements of value, the time value and intrinsic value. The intrinsic value is the discounted value of the option or guarantee at expiry, assuming that future economic conditions follow best estimate assumptions. The time value is the additional value arising from uncertainty about future economic conditions. |
Value of new business |
Is calculated using economic assumptions set at the start of each quarter and the same operating assumptions as those used to determine the embedded values at the end of the reporting period and is stated after the effect of any frictional costs. Unless otherwise stated, it is also quoted net of tax and minority interests. |
End of part 4 of 5
_______________________________________________________________________________________