Interim Results
FOREIGN & COLONIAL LATIN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
8 September 1999
Contact: Emily McLaughlin
Foreign & Colonial Emerging Markets 0171 628 2412
Claire Barry
Financial Dynamics 0171 831 3113
F&C LATIN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Unaudited Preliminary Statement for the half-year to 30 June 1999
SUMMARY
* Net asset per share in six months to June 1999 increased by 35.9%
to US$234.75 (US$172.74 at December 1998);
* Share price has increased by 49.8% to US$171.50 ( US$114.50 at
December 1998);
* Discount narrowed from 31.9% to 20.3% during the period but has
since widened to 24.7% as at the end of August in line with its
peer group;
* During the period the company repurchased 450,000 ordinary shares
for cancellation at an average discount of 18%;
* Principal contributors to the Company's strong performance were the
decision to maintain and deploy the gearing in rising markets and
positive stock selection, especially in Mexico. Country weighting
during this period also contributed strongly;
* Outlook - Despite a short term setback the board is optimistic about
future prospects for the region. Current valuations are compelling
and historically the Latin American region has performed well when
there is a sustained upturn in world economic growth.
6 months to 1 January 16 July 1998 % Change
30 June 1999 1998 to to 31 31 December
15 July 1998 December 1998 versus
1998 30 June
1999
Net assets
attributable to
equity US$ 175.04m US$ 185.36m US$ 129.58m +35.1
shareholders
Net assets per 234.75 cents 247.09 cents 172.74 cents +35.9
share
Net Assets per 215.29 cents 224.41 cents 168.15 cents +28.0
share (diluted)
Share price 171.50 cents 184.00 cents 114.50 cents +49.8
Warrant price 95.50 cents 108.00 cents 51.50 cents +85.4
Extracts from Chairman's Statement
Net Asset Value
The undiluted net asset value per share on 30 June 1999 was 234.75 cents,
representing a rise of 35.9% over the half year. This compares with the
return on the IFC$ Latin American Total Return Index of 30.3%.
The share price for the same period rose from 114.5 cents to 171.5 cents, an
increase of 49.8%, outpacing the net asset value performance and thus
generating a narrowing of the discount to the diluted net asset value from
31.9% to 20.3%.
Market selection contributed over 1% to outperformance over the period, with
the major positive contributors being the overweight position in the Mexican
and Brazilian markets, and the avoidance of the Venezuelan market. The
Company benefited from strong stock performance, adding over 2% to the
return. In Mexico strong moves in Grupo Mexico, Televisa, and Telmex helped
performance; in Argentina, YPF, Perez Companc, and Irsa outpaced the market;
while the Company was adversely affected by the performance of Brazilian
electricity stocks as well as shares in Telesp which underperformed.
Performance over the period was enhanced over 2% by the use of gearing.
Geographical Distribution of Index Your Company
Assets
Argentina 8.6% 7.1%
Brazil 28.8% 32.2%
Chile 16.3% 9.5%
Colombia 2.1% 1.3%
Mexico 39.7% 45.5%
Peru 2.8% 1.2%
Venezuela 1.7% -
Cash - 3.2%
Over the period the Company's effective gearing ranged between a high of
10.1% and a low of 1.2%. As at 30 June 1999 effective gearing was 2.8%.
Market Reviews
The Mexican market led the Latin American region over the first half, rising
over 52%, as measured by the IFC$ Mexican Total Return Index. The market was
bolstered both by an acceleration in economic growth which became evident at
the beginning of the second quarter and also by falling interest rates, which
resumed their downward trajectory after the brief bias upwards in the midst
of the Brazilian devaluation in January. The announcement that the Government
had negotiated a standby finance facility of $24bn to guarantee public
finances and smooth the transition to the new administration cheered
investors who remembered the previous Presidential transition period in late
1994 as one encompassing policy chaos and a painful devaluation. The rising
oil price is a strong positive for Mexico which derives 40% of Government
revenues from the commodity, and this should ensure the continuation of a
sound fiscal position.
The Chilean market was the second best performer in the region for the half
year, rising virtually 30% according to the IFC$ Chile Total Return
Index. Although the Chilean economy is one of the most stable in Latin
America, a period of overheating, which was quickly followed by a sharp trade
deterioration in the wake of the Asian crisis, has left the economy
reeling. After several years of lacklustre performance, the market is
generally responding to the Government's efforts to stimulate the economy. A
recovery in growth appears to be unfolding as interest rate reductions over
the last year have taken rates from 14% to the current 5%, a level which
historically has been stimulative for the economy. Inflation remains low and
falling, while the outlook for copper, Chile's main export, is brighter
underpinned by rising global growth.
Argentina rose 23% over the period, as measured by the IFC$ Argentine Total
Return Index. Argentina has distinguished itself amongst other Latin
borrowers by the proficiency with which it has funded its borrowing
requirements, and this has led to a reputation of market savvy. The sharp
deterioration in Brazilian prospects earlier in the year however, tipped the
Argentine economy into recession, with the inevitable impact on the IMF
sensitive fiscal accounts. With the election nearing, any political rhetoric
suggesting a change to the current economic policy will cause the stockmarket
to take fright.
With the second strongest economic growth in the region after Mexico, the
Peruvian economy is set to expand further boosted by improving commodity
prices, rising agricultural and fishing output, and El Nino reconstruction
expenditure. Peru recorded a 21% return for the period as measured by the
IFC$ Peruvian Total Return Index. Even though Fujimori's poll ratings are
low, he is still likely to seek a third mandate in the Presidential elections
in 2000, and is expected to bolster his position in the second half of this
year with increased public expenditure.
In Brazil, beset by sliding popularity, President Cardoso needs to regain the
political imperative and the authority over his coalition which has prompted
him to reshuffle his cabinet in order to launch a robust programme for the
second half of this year.
Since the devaluation in January the economy has rebounded, and inflation is
expected to remain benign at 8% for the year, confounding some economist's
predictions of a return to hyperinflation. The handling of the devaluation
crisis by the new Central Bank Governor, Arminio Fraga, promoted increased
confidence, helping the IFC$ Brazil Total Return Index to rise 16% over the
period. Interest rates have more than halved from their highs of 45%
following the devaluation in January, but further reductions will be
dependent on falling inflation. The Real float has cushioned against external
conditions, but the trade surplus projections are still disappointing for
this year, although better for next. The usual concerns over the fiscal
deficit persist, and the promised budget cuts must be delivered to meet IMF
targets.
The Venezuelan market was virtually flat over the period despite the sharp
rally in the oil price, which eases the pressures in the Venezuelan economy.
Foremost in investor's minds are the political concerns surrounding President
Chavez and the lack of a credible economic programme.
Colombia was the only Latin market which fell over the period, falling 14% as
measured by the IFC$ Colombian Total Return Index. Recent FARC guerrilla
attacks have highlighted the failure of Pastrana's policy of appeasement, and
demilitarisation is looking increasingly discredited. The Central Bank was
forced to let the currency depreciate, and the Peso subsequently moved to the
top of its new currency band, a depreciation of 12%. Political instability
and currency volatility continue to undermine any economic recovery.
Outlook
Risk aversion is back again, but this time under a different guise, with
investors concerned over the magnitude of future US interest rate rises, as
well as uncertainties relating to Y2K in Latin America. Since the end of the
period Latin markets have given up some of their gains, having fallen 9.5%.
Global growth appears to have turned a corner and should trend higher from
here, with Japanese GDP growth the main swing factor. Stronger global growth
should underpin commodity prices, particularly oil and copper and these two
trends should support the economic recovery in Latin America leading to 4%
growth for the region in 2000, compared to less than 1% growth for this year.
However, the electoral calendar is likely to cause volatility in the region
with Mexico, Peru, Chile and Argentina electing Presidents in the coming
year. A clear example of this volatility can already be seen in the
Argentine market, where electioneering rhetoric is causing confusion amongst
investors over long-term economic policy. Mexico is the clear leader in the
recovery, helped by a strong US economy, firm oil prices, and conservative
economic management. Peru is close behind in the recovery, but liquidity
concerns are likely to keep the market subdued until the recovery is
confirmed. Argentina's prospects are allied closely with an economic recovery
and confidence in economic management, and any uncertainty on either point
could impair the ability to roll debt in the international capital markets.
Chile should recover this year helped by some recovery in copper prices but
both Colombia and Venezuela are likely to be dogged by political wranglings,
which could impede economic growth. In Brazil, the situation remains as ever
largely a political call, with Cardoso's ability to rejuvenate both his image
and the reform agenda necessary preconditions for sustained investor
confidence.
The Company repurchased and cancelled 450,000 shares at the end of June in
two tranches at an average discount of 18%. Subsequently, the Company's
discount has widened to 24.7% in common with its peer group as the Latin
markets retraced some of their gains for the year. The Company will resume
its repurchase programme after the closed period passes.
P C D Burnell
Assets
30 June 15 July 1998 31 December 1998
1999 US'000's US'000's
US'000's
Total Assets less current 190,951 201,007 145,129
liabilities
Long-term bank loan -14,500 -14,500 -14,500
Provision for liabilities -1,388 -1,128 -1,025
and charges
Non-equity interest -24 -24 -24
Net assets attributable to
equity shareholders 175,039 185,355 129,580
Net Assets per ordinary 234.75 247.09 172.74
share - cents cents cents cents
Net Assets per ordinary 215.29 224.41 168.15
share - (diluted) cents cents cents cents
Statement of Total Return (incorporating the Revenue Account*) for the half year
to 30 June 1999
Revenue Capital 30 June Revenue Capital 1 January
US US 1999 US US 1998 to 15
'000's '000's Total '000's '000's July 1998
US'000s Total
US'000s
(Losses)/gains
on invesetments - 47,526 47,526 - (42,448) (42,448)
Warrants
purchased for
cancellation - - - - (174) (174)
Exchange
gains and (1) (1,259) (1,260) (5) (235) (240)
losses
Income 2,698 - 2,698 5,319 - 5,319
Management (1,231) - (1,231) (1,961) - (1,961)
fee
Other
Expenses and (335) (22) (357) (350) (123) (473)
credits
Net return
before
finance costs 1,131 46,245 47,376 3,003 (42,980) (39,977)
and taxation
Interest
payable and
similar (550) - (550) (1,351) - (1,351)
charges
Return on
ordinary
activities
before 581 46,245 46,826 1,652 (42,980) (41,328)
taxation
Taxation on
ordinary (213) (375) (588) (256) 195 (61)
activities
Return on
ordinary
activities
after 368 45,870 46,238 1,396 (42,785) (41,389)
taxation
Dividend on
preference
shares non - - - - - -
equity
Amount
transferred
to/(from)
reserves 368 45,870 46,238 1,396 (42,785) (41,389)
Return per
ordinary
share - cents 0.49 60.12 60.61 1.86 (57.04) (55.18)
Return per
ordinary
share - 0.46 56.40 56.86 1.68 N/A N/A
diluted -
cents+
* The revenue column of this statement is the profit and loss account of the
Company
+ Restated to comply with change in Accounting Practice FRS14
N/A - Not applicable
The Directors recommend that no dividend be paid for the period to 30 June
1999.
Notes
No interim dividend will be paid on ordinary shares.
Total return per ordinary share is based on 75,005,108 weighted average
number of ordinary shares in issue (15 July 1998 75,014,500 ordinary shares).
Diluted NAV and return per ordinary share have been calculated in accordance
with FRS14, under which the Company's outstanding warrants are considered
dilutive only if the exercise price is lower than the maket price of the
ordinary shares at the period end or the period average respectively. The
dilution is calculated by reference to the additional number of ordinary
shares which warrantholders would have received on exercise as compared with
the number of ordinary shares which warrantholders would have received on
exercise as compared with the number of ordinary shares which the
subscription proceeds would have purchased in the open market. Weighted
average number of shares for diluted total return calculation 79,943,039 (15
July 1998 83,089,286 ordinary shares).
The number of shares used for the diluted NAV calculation is 81,301,968 (15
July: 82,597,554).
The Interim Report will be posted to all shareholders on or around 16
September 1999 Copies may be obtained during normal business hours from the
Company's Registered Office, Exchange House, Primrose Street, London EC2A 2NY.
By order of the Board
F&C Latin American Investment Trust, Secretary
Exchange House, Primrose Street, London EC2A 2NY.