Interim Results
F&C Latin American Inv Trust PLC
6 September 2001
Date: EMBARGOED 07.00AM THURSDAY 6 SEPTEMBER 2001
Contact: Simon Cordery, F&C Emerging Markets, 020 7628 8000/Emma Chilvers,
Lansons Communications, 020 7294 3606
F&C LATIN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Unaudited Preliminary Statement of Results
for the half-year ended 30 June 2001
HIGHLIGHTS
* The undiluted net asset value per share was 252.19 cents, a rise of
2.70% over the half-year. This compares with the return of the IFCG Latin
American US$ Total Return Index of 4.21%.
* The share price has risen from 169.0 cents to 186.0 cents, an increase
of 10%.
* The discount to the diluted net asset value has fallen from 25.8% to
19.7%.
* The Mexican market has been the best performing market over the period,
rising 22.4%, despite Wall Street's poor performance and the drag of
Argentine sentiment.
* Argentina is facing one of the most difficult periods in its economic
history. It is unclear how the Argentine authorities will ignite economic
growth while adhering to a strict fiscal discipline.
SUMMARY OF RESULTS
30 June 2001 31 December %
2000 Change
Net assets attributable to equity US$ 187.9m US$ 183.0m +2.70%
shareholders
Net assets per share - basic 252.19 245.55 cents +2.70%
cents
Net assets per share - diluted 231.66 227.73 cents +1.73%
cents
Share price 186.00 cents 169.00 cents +10.06%
Warrant price 99.00 cents 95.50 cents +3.66%
Extracts from the Chairman's Statement
Dear Shareholder,
NET ASSET VALUE
Your Company's undiluted net asset value per share on 30 June 2001 was 252.19
cents, a rise of 2.70% over the half-year. This compares with the return of
the IFCG Latin American US$ Total Return Index of 4.21% for the period.
The share price for the same period has risen from 169.0 cents to 186.0 cents,
an increase of 10%, outpacing the net asset value performance and thus
reflecting a lowering of the discount to the diluted net asset value from
25.8% to 19.7%. The fully invested gearing level of 15% remained unchanged
over the period.
MARKET REVIEW
Argentina
Argentina is facing one of the most difficult periods in its economic history.
A protracted recession, now in its third year, has made servicing Argentina's
US$150 billion mountain of debt difficult. Maintaining a fixed peg currency
regime with the Dollar, the Country cannot devalue the currency to ignite
growth and reflate the economy. In an effort to reduce the debt burden until
the Country returns to growth, Argentina negotiated a US$29 billion debt
exchange and re-negotiated its IMF fiscal target. Both US ratings agencies,
Moody's and Standard and Poor's, have downgraded Argentine sovereign debt to
negative. Investors are switching Peso deposit accounts to Dollar accounts and
increasingly shipping these Dollar deposits offshore, which is likely to
jeopardise the currency board system. It is unclear how the Argentine
authorities will ignite economic growth while adhering to a strict fiscal
discipline which, by its nature, is deflationary. The market performance was
one of the worst in Latin America, falling by 1.7% over the period.
Mexico
The Mexican market has been the best performing market over the period, rising
22.4% despite Wall Street's poor performance and the drag of the Argentine
crisis on sentiment for Latin America. The economy has rarely been in better
shape. A strong Peso has driven inflation to a twenty year low, while the
Country has attracted strong Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows. Rising
real wages underpin robust consumer spending, providing a copper bottom to the
economy. The takeover of Banamex, Mexico's largest bank, by Citigroup sends a
strong signal to US corporates that Mexico is a safe place in which to invest.
The imminent passage of tax reform and the eventual convergence with the US
economy reinforce the long-term positive prospects of Mexico.
Brazil
Brazil has borne the brunt of investors' disillusionment with Argentina.
Investors have required a higher return for holding Brazilian bonds, thus
pushing bond prices down and interest rate spreads up. The Brazilian Central
Bank was forced to raise interest rates to protect the Real as the sharp
currency weakness threatened to ignite a burst of inflation. Domestically,
Brazil itself is beset with the worst drought in 70 years which curtails
electricity generation in the Country's hydro-electric plants, which in turn
hampers economic growth. Together these twin events conspire to restrict the
flow of investments into the Country, a feature Brazil can ill afford with its
current account deficit to finance. The IMF has stepped forward with a US$15
billion package to plug the balance of payments gap due to the slower FDI
flows into the Country this year. This IMF action points to a clear
ring-fencing and differentiation of Brazilian economic problems from those in
Argentina. The Brazilian market fell 13.2% over the period.
Chile
The global slowdown has brought a flurry of downgrades in GDP forecasts for
Chile this year, but the Country should still manage a respectable 4% growth,
with the export sector leading the way. Domestically, high unemployment has
held back consumption, despite interest rates falling to 3.5%, a level which
historically has been highly expansionary. Investment spending should
translate into job creation and hence higher consumer confidence which will
spur consumption and balance the output between export and domestic sector
growth. The liberalisation of the capital account and pension law reforms
should spark more investor interest. The market rose 5.2% over the period.
Peru
Peru's new President, Alejandro Toledo, has wasted no time in setting his
economic agenda. His most important decision was to appoint a credible Finance
Minister, Pedro Kuczynski. Kuczynski is a well regarded economist with IMF and
World Bank experience. His economic agenda to cut taxes and reform tax
collection should have the twin attributes of spurring economic growth while
being politically acceptable to the loose coalition Toledo has formed around
him. The appointment of Kuczynski suggests that Toledo appreciates the need to
woo financial markets and reassert fiscal orthodoxy. Given the priority of
privatisation and investment, Peru could be on the cusp of a return to
economic health like that witnessed during Fujimori's first few years in
office. The market rose 13.2% over the period.
Colombia
The Colombian economy remains sluggish while unemployment has edged up to high
double-digit levels. With weak domestic demand, the external sector is the
only source of growth, but the repeated bombings of the Cano Limon oil
pipeline and depressed coffee prices have sharply reduced exports.
In an environment of relatively low inflation, low credit growth and a
wavering recovery, monetary easing looks likely. Violence, at alarming levels
even at the best of times, has been on the rise recently with a series of bomb
explosions in the main cities. FARC guerrilla rhetoric has also been more
inflammatory which may signal growing rebel confidence. The FARC could be
preparing to move from a predominantly rural campaign of disruption to a more
urban one. Despite the grim economic and political news, the market rose 29.6%
over the period and the authorities announced an amalgamation of the Country's
three stock exchanges.
Venezuela
The strident rhetoric contained in Chavez's long televised speeches has
accelerated capital flight, with the Central Bank witnessing pressure on the
Bolivar and a decline in international reserves of US$2.4 billion since the
end of December last year. Chavez has told listeners that private property is
not 'sacred' and that he is 'keeping his eye on speculators who attack the
currency'. The economy is becoming more reliant on buoyant oil revenues, as
oil prices remain firm, and as the component of private sector activity
shrinks. Industrialists have either cancelled or delayed investments due to
political and economic uncertainty, but the Central Government continues to
spend from its swollen oil coffers. Venezuela is more prone than ever to a
boom-bust economic cycle which would manifest itself if oil prices weakened.
The Venezuelan market rose 9.5% over the period.
OUTLOOK
Typically, the performance of emerging markets has been highly correlated with
the rebound in the G7 OECD leading indicators. Within this context, the lowly
valued Latin American markets should produce strong returns when this index
turns up, indicating a rebound in global growth. The more liquid markets of
Mexico and Brazil should dominate investor interest. However, events in
Argentina will likely determine sentiment towards Latin America in the months
ahead, overshadowing any positive developments in the global growth outlook or
improvement in investors' appetite for risk. Brazil is the Country to benefit
most from a resolution of the Argentine debt trap dilemma. Correspondingly,
Brazil stands to be the most affected as the Argentine malaise lingers, which
could impact Brazil's ability to attract FDI or hamper its access to the
international debt markets. Mexico, on the other hand, is relatively immune to
any Argentine-related sentiment, and should continue to fare well,
particularly when the US economy recovers. The risk to the Mexican scenario
would be if the tax reform initiative failed or if there were a plunge in the
oil price, which could lead to a sharp weakness in the Peso. The Andean
economies of Venezuela and Colombia suffer from a negative mix of economic and
political dynamics which show little sign of resolution. The Chilean economy
will remain responsive to copper prices, while the Peruvian market's prospects
would be enhanced by the renewal of private sector investment which could
herald a rebound in GDP growth.
P C D Burnell
September 2001
Statement of Total Return (incorporating the Revenue Account*)
6 months to 30 June 2001 6 months to 30 June 2000
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s
Gains/(losses) - 3,453 3,453 - (6,991) (6,991)
on Investments
Exchange (70) (149) (219) (35) 73 38
(losses)/gains
Income 5,214 - 5,214 2,564 - 2,564
Management fee (1,596) - (1,596) (1,807) - (1,807)
Other expenses (339) (21) (360) (461) (31) (492)
Net return 3,209 3,283 6,492 261 (6,949) (6,688)
before
finance costs
and taxation
Interest (935) - (935) (792) - (792)
payable and
similar charges
Return on 2,274 3,283 5,557 (531) (6,949) (7,480)
ordinary
activities
before taxation
Taxation on (481) (129) (610) (313) 100 (213)
ordinary
activities
Return on 1,793 3,154 4,947 (844) (6,849) (7,693)
ordinary
activities
after taxation
Dividend on - - - - - -
ordinary shares
Amount 1,793 3,154 4,947 (844) (6,849) (7,693)
transferred
to/(from)
reserves
Return per 2.40 4.23 6.63 (1.16) (9.43) (10.59)
ordinary share
(basic) -
cents
Return per 2.21 3.88 6.09 + + +
ordinary share
(diluted) -
cents
* The revenue column of this statement is the profit and loss account of the
Company.
+ There is no dilution.
All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from continuing
operations.
Balance Sheet
30 June 31 December
2001 2000
US$'000s US$'000s
Fixed assets
Investments 211,987 210,250
Current assets
Debtors 1,652 1,340
Taxation recoverable 109 182
Short-term deposits 1,600 -
Cash at bank 2,866 1,227
6,227 2,749
Current liabilities
Creditors: amounts falling due within one year
US Dollar bank loans (28,000) (28,000)
Other (899) (780)
(28,899) (28,780)
Net current liabilities (22,672) (26,031)
Total assets less current liabilities 189,315 184,219
Creditors: amounts falling due after more than one year
Provision for liabilities and charges (1,374) (1,225)
Net assets 187,941 182,994
Capital and Reserves
Called up share capital:
including non-equity share capital 7,475 7,475
Share premium 61,544 61,544
Capital redemption reserve 238 238
Warrant reserve 4,797 4,797
Capital reserves 116,232 113,078
Revenue reserve (2,345) (4,138)
Total shareholders' funds 187,941 182,994
Equity interests 187,917 182,970
Non-equity interests 24 24
Total shareholders' funds 187,941 182,994
Net asset value per ordinary share
Basic - cents 252.19 245.55
Diluted - cents 231.66 227.73
The geographical distribution of investments at 30 June 2001 was: Mexico -
50.6%; Brazil - 38.0%; Chile - 7.3%; Argentina - 1.7%; Venezuela - 1.1%; Peru
- 0.8%; Colombia - 0.5%.
Cash Flow Statement
6 months 6 months
to to
30 June 30 June
2001 2000
US$'000s US$'000s
Net cash inflow/(outflow) from operating activities 3,446 (493)
Interest paid (808) (804)
Taxation paid (388) (51)
Net cash inflow/(outflow) from purchases and sales of 1,138 (2,930)
investments
Net cash inflow/(outflow) before use of liquid resources 3,388 (4,278)
and financing
(Increase)/decrease in short-term deposits (1,600) 2,986
Net cash inflow from financing - 2,000
Increase in cash 1,788 708
Notes
No dividend will be paid on the ordinary shares.
The interim financial statements have been prepared on the basis of the
accounting policies set out in the Company's financial statements at 31
December 2000.
The Interim Report will be posted to shareholders on or around 19 September
2001. Copies may be obtained during normal business hours from the Company's
Registered Office, Exchange House, Primrose Street, London EC2A 2NY.
By order of the Board
F&C Emerging Markets Limited, Secretary
5 September 2001