Interim Results
F&C Latin American Inv Trust PLC
04 September 2003
Embargoed until 07.00am on 4 September 2003
Contact: Rupert Brandt, F&C Emerging Markets, 020 7628 8000/ Emma Chilvers,
Lansons Communications, 020 7294 3606
F&C LATIN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Unaudited Statement of Results
for the half-year ended 30 June 2003
HIGHLIGHTS
• Following the war in Iraq, there has been a dramatic rally in Latin
American markets, caused by a combination of an improving economic outlook
and low valuations.
• The Company's Net Asset Value rose by by 29.4% in US dollar terms over the
period, which compares favourably to a rise of 25.1% by the IFCG Latin
American US$ Total Return Index.
• The share price appreciated by 25.0% and the warrant price appreciated
by 38.3% over the same period.
• This favourable trend has continued. Between the end of the period and 2
September 2003 the Company's NAV has appreciated by a further 12.3%, the
share price by 12.3% and the warrant price by 42.9%, which all out-performed
the IFCG Latin American US$ Total Return Index's 10.0% rise (all in US$).
• Brazil is benefiting from the combination of a powerful domestic reform
agenda, an improving economic outlook and extremely attractive valuations.
• Mexico should be a key beneficiary of the expected acceleration in the US
economy.
• The Andean markets performed well over the period. However, we
generally experienced problems investing in these markets due to liquidity
constraints and in some cases we also felt that the opportunities available
were less attractive than in the larger markets in the region.
SUMMARY OF RESULTS
30 June 2003 31 December 2002 % Change
Net assets attributable to equity
shareholders US$ 151.1 m US$ 116.8 m +29.4
Net assets per share - basic 204.87 cents 158.37 cents +29.4
Net assets per share - diluted 189.19 cents 149.64 cents* +26.4
Share price 155.00 cents 124.00 cents +25.0
Warrant price 56.00 cents 40.50 cents +38.3
* Restated in accordance with the revised SORP issued in January 2003.
Extracts from the Chairman's Statement
Performance
Your Company's net asset value per share on 30 June 2003 was 204.87 cents, a
rise of 29.4% over the half year. This compares favourably to the 25.1% rise in
the IFCG Latin American US$ Total Return Index for the period. The rally in
Latin American markets was driven by a dramatic improvement in global sentiment
after the Iraq war combined with very encouraging newsflow coming out of the
region with the Brazilian and Argentine stockmarkets in particular mounting
sharp recoveries from the very depressed levels they ended 2002. The Company's
outperformance was focused in the second quarter of the period. The
outperformance was generated by the combination of the successful use of
tactical gearing, a substantial overweight in Brazil which we added to in the
aftermath of the Iraq War and positive stock selection in both Brazil and
Mexico.
The share price for the same period rose by 25.0% from 124.00 cents to 155.00
cents.
The discount started the period at 17.1%*, traded in a volatile range over the
six months and ended the period at 18.1%. The warrant price appreciated by 38.3%
in US dollar terms over the same timeframe.
We would like to bring shareholders up to date with the latest performance
figures between the end of the review period and the preparation of the interim
report. Since the period end and 2 September, your Company's NAV has appreciated
by a further 12.3% in US dollar terms which continued to compare favourably to
the IFCG Latin American US$ Total Return Index's 10.0% US dollar gain. The share
price has appreciated by 12.3% and the warrant price has appreciated by 42.9%
over the same period.
We have actively managed the gearing over the review period. Effective gearing
started the period at 11.1% of net assets; it was reduced through asset sales to
10.6% at the end of January and was then consistently increased through asset
purchases from February to 12.2% by the end of April, where the level peaked.
Since May, the Company has been reducing gearing into market strength and
effective gearing ended the period at 9.0% of net assets.
Despite extremely volatile market conditions over the period, it was pleasing to
note that large sellers of shares were able to find buyers. There were no share
buy backs over the period.
On 1 April 2003, Rupert Brandt succeeded Emily McLaughlin as the Company's
portfolio manager. Rupert is 33 years old and joined F&C in 1994. He has been
closely involved with the management of the portfolio since 1998 with particular
responsibility for investments in Argentina and Mexico and has extensive
experience of Latin America.
Market review
Argentina The IFCG Argentina Index appreciated by just under 66% in US dollar
terms over the period. This was driven by a significant change in the market's
assessment of Argentina's economic outlook. At the start of the year, sentiment
was very depressed. The Argentine economy had experienced the worst recession in
its history. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had fallen for four consecutive years
culminating in an 11% decline in local currency terms in 2002. The Argentine
peso depreciated against the US dollar by 70% in 2002 and an estimated 55% of
the population were living in poverty. The silver lining of the 2002 devaluation
crisis was that the Consumer Price Index was limited to a rise of 40%, which
transformed Argentina from being the least competitive economy in Latin America
to being one of the most competitive. We saw this as an opportunity and built a
position in Argentina in January.
The improvement in competitiveness catalysed an export-led recovery, with
agricultural, wine, oil, mining and export oriented manufacturing companies
experiencing some of the best business conditions in a decade. Exports rose by
16% in US dollar terms in the first half of 2003 compared to the same period a
year earlier. This is likely to result in a trade surplus of close to 10% of GDP
in 2003, which has facilitated a major economic recovery. We are currently
forecasting 5% real GDP growth in 2003. Industrial production grew in double
digits in every month in the first half of 2003 against the same month last
year. Consumption has also started to recover helped by a boom in tourism and by
domestic consumers spending some of the money that has been returned from the
2002 bank account freezes.
We have recently become concerned that the market's perception of Argentina has
gone from one extreme to another. Sentiment in the Argentine stockmarket appears
to be currently euphoric and we believe that the market is not efficiently
discounting the enormous challenges ahead for this economy. A new IMF package
has to be signed by September 2003, the defaulted international debt has to be
restructured and the government will have to start to tackle the problems in the
domestic banking sector.. Nestor Kirchner's victory in the May 2003 presidential
election is also a further cause for concern. Since coming to power on 25 May,
Kirchner has imposed 180 day capital controls and friction in the relationship
between the Argentina and the IMF has increased which has in turn increased the
overall the level of political risk. Kirchner has also said that he favours a
substantial rise in public sector salaries, which if implemented, would risk
undermining the hard won primary fiscal surplus. We are also disappointed by the
new government's complete lack of a reform agenda, which might cause the current
economic recovery to lose steam towards the end of 2003 once comparisons become
tougher. As a result of becoming more cautious in our Argentine outlook, we
started to reduce the size of our position toward the end of the period and
since 30 June we have subsequently sold the bulk of our position and realised a
substantial profit.
Brazil Brazil was the Company's principal overweight position relative to the
benchmark index throughout the period where the Company had an average geared
weight of 50.5% compared to the IFCG Latin America's average weight of 37.0%. We
added to our position in March and April and benefited from the sharp recovery
in the Brazilian stockmarket in the second quarter. We took some profits in
Brazil in June in anticipation of short -term consolidation over the summer
months, but have remained overweight relative to the index and expect the market
to perform well again in the fourth quarter of 2003.
The IFCG Brazil Index appreciated by just over 32% in US dollars in the first
half of 2003. The market has warmed to Brazil's new president, Lula, who took
office on 1 January 2003. As promised in his election campaign, Lula has pursued
a very modern, pro market form of socialism. He has presented the boldest reform
program that Brazil has seen in almost a decade and, if successful, his reforms
could mark a major turning point for Brazil's long-term future.
The most important measure is the social security reform, where Lula is trying
to reduce the annual deficit of the public sector pension scheme, which was
forecast to snowball in size in the long term from an already high level of 4.1%
of GDP in 2002. If he succeeds, there will be an immediate fiscal benefit
derived from taxing current retirees, but more importantly for the long term,
the deficit would fall materially and be more actuarially balanced. The main
part of the social security reform is expected to be passed during the fourth
quarter of 2003. Other reforms include a new bankruptcy law, which helps banks
foreclose on bad debtors, the creation of an independent Central Bank and a
major simplification of the unwieldy tax system. There will be plenty of other
reforms needed in the future, including a new regulatory platform for the
utility industry and private sector pension reform (which is a longer-term
issue). These reforms should allow Brazil simultaneously to accelerate its
long-term growth rate and improve its fiscal accounts, which amongst other
things makes a debt default far less likely. The net effect of a majority of
these reforms being passed is that Brazil's long-term risk premium is likely to
fall materially, which should support a continued positive re-rating of
Brazilian equities.
The Brazilian economy remained relatively subdued in the first six months of
2003, characterised by a strong external sector offset by weak domestic demand,
which is experiencing a modest contraction in consumption. Exports grew by 29%
in US dollar terms in the first five months of the year compared to the same
period last year which, combined with only a 0.1% US dollar increase in imports
in the same period, helped the current account move from a deficit to a small
surplus. In the first quarter of 2003, GDP grew by 2%, with the export component
of GDP rising by 20% and private consumption contracting by 2.3% compared to the
same period last year. We anticipate a relatively weak result for second quarter
2003 GDP and for 2003 we forecast GDP will grow by 1.5%. The combination of the
appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar and very high nominal
and real interest rates caused inflation to fall consistently over the period.
Consumer price inflation started the year at a dangerously high level with a
2.25% month on month increase in January, but this eased to a -0.15% month on
month change in June. The market consensus for consumer price inflation over
the next 12 months has now fallen to close to 7%, which lays a foundation for a
very rapid reduction in nominal interest rates. The Brazilian Central Bank
started the monetary easing process in June when it cut the key Selic interest
rate by 50 basis points to 26%. We believe that as long as inflation remains
under control, nominal interest rates can fall by up to 1000 basis points over
the next 12 months, which should help stimulate activity in the domestic
economy. We expect GDP growth to accelerate in 2004 to over 3%. An acceleration
in GDP growth should help corporates grow their profits and this should provide
further support to the stockmarket. The fall in the Selic rate also has the
potential to improve Brazil's increasingly robust fiscal position in 2004 as a
large percentage of the government's debt is linked to the Selic rate.
Mexico We materially adjusted the nature and size of our position in Mexico
several times during the period but remained overweight throughout the period
compared to the benchmark index. Initially we reduced our exposure to Mexico in
January as we felt the market would sell off in the run up to the Iraq war.
Around the time of the Gulf War we materially increased the 'beta' of our
positions in Mexico, building substantial positions in the rapidly growing
cellular and media industries which subsequently outperformed the market in the
rally in the second quarter. We kept the overall position size in Mexico
relatively constant in this period, financing the buys by selling defensive 'low
beta' stocks. Toward the end of the period we increased the weight in Mexico
through the purchase of a collection of medium sized companies which we believe
are all well positioned to benefit from the acceleration in the US economy that
we are forecasting in the second half of 2003.
The IFCG Mexico Index produced a solid absolute return but underperformed the
region in the first six months of 2003, rising by 14.5% in US dollar terms. The
benefit of positive stock selection in the Company's positions more than offset
the negative impact of being overweight in Mexico during this period.
The Mexican economy has been relatively subdued in the review period. In the
first quarter of 2003, GDP grew by 2.3% compared to the same period last year
and the market is forecasting second quarter GDP to only grow by 0.5% compared
to the same period last year. We are expecting Mexican GDP to grow by close to
2% for the full year 2003, with a likely acceleration in 2004 depending on the
strength and timing of the pick up in the US economy. In the first half of 2003,
Mexican growth was held back by the weak global environment and in particular
the subdued state of US manufacturing. Exports to the US are an integral part of
Mexico's economy, representing 30% of GDP. Mexico currently exports more to the
US than Japan and is the US's second largest trading partner. We are forecasting
an acceleration in US manufacturing in the second half of 2003 and after a small
lag, this should feed through to Mexico's economy. The Mexican Central Bank has
won its hard fought war against inflation, with consumer price inflation
expected to be close to 3-4% in both 2003 and 2004. This has enabled Mexico to
bring its interest rates down to very low levels that are almost equivalent to a
developed country. The key 28 day Cetes rate ended the period at just 5.11%. One
of the consequences of Mexico being able to bring down interest rates to such
low levels is that the demand for credit is likely to grow far faster than
overall GDP when the economy accelerates. Financial services penetration in
Mexico is astonishingly low with commercial loans equivalent to only 15% of GDP,
which could provide an additional growth engine in the domestic economy in 2004.
Chile We were underweight Chile throughout most of the period until June, when
we added to our positions building an overweight position relative to the
benchmark, which we continued to increase in July.
The IFCG Chile Index appreciated by 27.9% in US dollar terms over the period.
The three main factors behind this strong performance were an improvement in the
regional outlook, rising commodity prices and a brighter domestic macroeconomic
outlook. As mentioned above, the reform process in Brazil and improving
economic conditions in Argentina led to improved sentiment towards both of these
countries.
Though the overall exposure of the Chilean economy to Brazil and Argentina is
limited, a number of stocks have subsidiary operations in these countries.
Also, Chilean assets and the currency are impacted by regional sentiment. The
Chilean peso is correlated to the Brazilian real and at times has been used as a
proxy for hedging Brazilian currency risk. Low interest rates at 2.75% and a
more constructive global environment have helped to boost Chilean economic
activity and this, combined with a general rise in commodity prices, has led to
a more favourable outlook for growth in Chile. First quarter 2003 GDP growth was
better than expected at 3.5% compared to the same period a year earlier and it
looks increasingly likely that 2003 GDP growth will accelerate to at least 3%
from 2002's 2.1% rate. However, this is still a long way below Chile's potential
growth rate. The successful passage of the proposed Chile-US free trade
agreement through the House of Representatives at the end of the period also
boosted sentiment.
Venezuela We ran a zero weight in Venezuela throughout the period. This was
partly because we judged the overall risk reward trade off in the market to be
relatively unattractive compared to the other markets in the region, and partly
because we were unable to build positions in the shares of companies that we
judged to be attractive. At the start of the period it was very difficult to buy
shares in these companies because of liquidity constraints, and later in the
period the problem was compounded by the imposition of capital controls.
The year started with a continuation of the general strike, which was perceived
as a thinly veiled attempt to get President Chavez to step down. The general
strike was centred around PDVSA, the state oil company, and unfortunately ended
with the government sacking 18,000 employees and Mr Chavez staying in place.
The damage to the economy has been great with first quarter 2003 GDP falling by
29% compared to the same period last year. The IMF forecast that after an 8.9%
decline in GDP in 2002, Venezuela's GDP will fall by a further 17% in 2003. The
only saving grace for Venezuela is the continued strength in oil prices, which
provides both a strong income stream for the government and a healthy external
account. After allowing a partial float in 2002, the Central Bank allowed the
currency to depreciate a further 33% at the start of 2003. After a sharp
downward movement in the currency the government introduced capital controls and
fixed the exchange rate (at a level about 40% above black market rates). Capital
controls have starved the economy of US dollars and have contributed to the poor
economic performance in Venezuela. As inflation picked up (34.2% in the 12
months to end of June) local investors hemmed in by very tight foreign exchange
capital controls used the equity market as a hedging instrument which helped the
IFCG Venezuela Index appreciate by 59% in US dollar terms over the period. The
market is beginning to anticipate another devaluation, which is showing in the
American Depository Receipt (ADR) prices that have moved to large discounts
compared to their local equivalents. Venezuela was also removed from a number of
global indices during the period because the foreign exchange controls made
local Venezuelan shares effectively uninvestable for many foreign investors.
Colombia President Uribe is continuing to make positive headway in improving
the security situation in Colombia but a lot of work remains to be done and
terrorist activity continued throughout the period. His approval rating remains
high at 64% and he generally has the support of the judiciary. The IMF gave
formal approval to a US$2 billion two-year standby program for Colombia in
January. As usual the IMF required structural reforms and budget discipline,
which required the passage of various pieces of legislation. Congress approved a
fiscal responsibility law and Uribe is currently trying to freeze civil servants
salaries for two years, which would provide another 1.4% of GDP in fiscal
savings in 2004. GDP growth is relatively robust with the economy growing at
3.8% in the first quarter of 2003 compared to the same period last year, but
unemployment remains stubbornly high at 15.7%. The Central Bank has increased
interest rates by 200 basis points so far this year to 7.5% in an attempt to
meet its inflation target of 6% for 2003, which is slightly below the trailing
12 month 7.2% inflation rate. We ran a zero weight position in Colombia
throughout the period because we were unable to buy shares in the companies we
liked due to a lack of trading liquidity.
Peru A 5.2% GDP growth rate in 2002 made the Peruvian economy the fastest
growing economy in the region last year. First quarter 2003 started well with a
5.1% growth compared to the same period last year, but there are signs that
economic growth has started to rapidly decelerate during the second quarter of
2003. Political uncertainty is continuing to rise in Peru because of President
Toledo's lack of popularity which has undermined the credibility of the
government. Toledo's popularity fell to an 11% approval rating in May, which set
a new low, before bouncing at the end of the period to a still low 13%.
Teachers, farmers and health workers went on strike in May and the President
announced a 30 day state of emergency. In order to counter low government
popularity a sweeping cabinet reshuffle took place in June. In the same month
the government announced a fiscal austerity package, in part to pay for
teacher's salary increases. Security issues appear to be becoming a much more
important issue again, for example 71 Techinct employees were kidnapped whilst
working on the Camesea gas field during the period. We ran a sharp underweight
position in Peru throughout the period with our exposure focused in the gold
mining sector. We wanted to invest in a number of other Peruvian companies
during the period but we were unable to because a lack of trading liquidity.
Outlook
We continue to have a positive outlook for Latin America over the next twelve
months. Latin American equity markets are still trading at very attractive
levels with the region on a forecast 2003 price to earnings ratio of close to
eight and a half times, which is very low compared to other regions of the world
and compared to Latin America's own historic trading range history. We see a
broadly positive global backdrop characterised by a gradual global economic
acceleration, a continued fall in global risk aversion and plenty of liquidity
in the G7 caused by record low interest rates. We believe that economic momentum
is likely to gradually pick up across the region over the remainder of 2003 and
into 2004 and expect this to drive corporate profit growth. The main risks to
our positive outlook for the region includes a stall in the reform process in
Brazil, a disappointment in the rate of growth in the US economy and another
terrorist atrocity in the West which would result in a major increase in global
risk aversion. We entered the second half of the year with overweight positions
in Mexico, Brazil and Chile and zero or underweight positions in Peru, Colombia
and Venezuela.
The Company has found it very difficult to invest in the shares which it
considered to offer the best risk reward characteristics in the Andean counties
this year because of extremely low trading liquidity in these stock markets. The
Board is consequently considering changing the benchmark index from the IFCG
Latin America Total Return Index, which it believes its becoming increasingly
outdated and less used by its shareholders, to a benchmark index which gives
liquidity and invisibility a larger weight in determining the index
constituents. Conversations will take place with shareholders over the next
several months with a view to changing the benchmark from 1st January 2004.
The Board intends to respond appropriately to the relevant provisions of the
Financial Reporting Council's new Combined Code on Corporate Governance and the
new AITC Code of Corporate Governance, both of which were published just after
the review period.
Peter Burnell
Chairman
September 2003
*Calculated in accordance with revised SORP (see note 1, page 16). Discount at
31 December 2002, as previously reported was 19.0%.
Statement of Total Return (incorporating the Revenue Account*)
6 months to 30 June 2003 6 months to 30 June 2002
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s
Gains/(losses) on
investments - 33,166 33,166 - (30,177) (30,177)
Exchange (losses)/gains - (152) (152) (7) 26 19
Income 3,439 - 3,439 3,670 - 3,670
Management fee (1,168) - (1,168) (1,521) - (1,521)
Loss on warrants purchased for
cancellation - - - - (8) (8)
Other expenses (382) (12) (394) (349) (25) (374)
Net return before finance costs
and taxation 1,889 33,002 34,891 1,793 (30,184) (28,391)
Interest payable and similar
charges (367) - (367) (452) - (452)
Return on ordinary activities
before taxation 1,522 33,002 34,524 1,341 (30,184) (28,843)
Taxation on ordinary activities (224) - (224) (263) 8 (255)
Return on ordinary activities
after taxation 1,298 33,002 34,300 1,078 (30,176) (29,098)
Dividend on ordinary shares - - - - - -
Amount transferred
to/(from) reserves 1,298 33,002 34,300 1,078 (30,176) (29,098)
Return per ordinary share
(basic) - cents 1.76 44.74 46.50 1.44 (40.50) (39.06)
Return per ordinary share
(diluted) - cents 1.69 1.33
*The revenue column of this statement is the profit and loss account of the
Company.
All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from continuing
operations.
Balance Sheet
30 June 30 June 2002 31 December
2003 2002
US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s
Fixed assets
Listed investments 164,118 169,606 130,370
Current assets
Debtors 1,953 1,311 841
Taxation recoverable 109 109 109
Short-term deposits 7,013 - 13,011
Cash at bank 1,717 4,246 3,474
10,792 5,666 17,435
Current liabilities
Creditors: amounts falling due within one year
US dollar bank loans - (29,500) (29,500)
Other (1,517) (1,387) (1,462)
(1,517) (30,887) (30,962)
Net current assets/(liabilities) 9,275 (25,221) (13,527)
Total assets less current liabilities 173,393 144,385 116,843
Creditors: amounts falling due after more than one year
US dollar bank loans (22,250) - -
Provision for liabilities and charges - (455) -
Net assets 151,143 143,930 116,843
Capital and Reserves
Called up share capital:
including non-equity share capital 7,400 7,475 7,400
Share premium 61,544 61,544 61,544
Capital redemption reserve 313 238 313
Warrant reserve 4,356 4,792 4,356
Capital reserves 77,945 71,031 44,943
Revenue reserve (415) (1,150) (1,713)
Total shareholders' funds 151,143 143,930 116,843
Equity interests 151,119 143,906 116,819
Non-equity interests 24 24 24
Total shareholders' funds 151,143 143,930 116,843
Net asset value per ordinary share
Basic - cents 204.87 193.13 158.37
Diluted - cents 189.19 178.16* 149.64*
* Restated in accordance with the SORP issued in January 2003.
The geographical distribution of total assets less current liabilities
(excluding loans) at 30 June 2003 was: Brazil - 39%; Mexico - 38%; Chile - 15%;
Cash - 5%; Argentina - 2%; Peru - 1%.
Cash Flow Statement
6 months to 6 months to
30 June 2003 30 June 2002
US$'000s US$'000s
Net cash inflow from operating activities 1,983 1,562
Interest paid (361) -
Taxation paid (224) (275)
Net cash outflow from purchases and sales of investments (1,751) (4,168)
Net cash outflow before use of liquid resources and
financing (353) (2,881)
Decrease in short-term deposits 5,998 6,500
Net cash outflow from financing (7,250) (13)
(Decrease)/increase in cash (1,605) 3,606
Notes
No dividend will be paid on the ordinary shares.
The interim financial accounts have been prepared on the basis of the accounting
policies set out in the Company's financial statements at 31 December 2002.
Diluted net asset value per ordinary share has been calculated in accordance
with the Articles basis as set out in the Statement of Recommended Practice '
Financial Statements of Investment trust Companies' (SORP) issued in January
2003. Prior period figures have been restated accordingly.
The above financial information comprises non-statutory accounts within the
meaning of section 240 of the Companies Act 1985. The financial information for
the year ended 31 December 2002 has been extracted from published accounts for
the year ended 31 December 2002 that have been delivered to the Registrar of
Companies and on which the report of the auditors was unqualified.
The Interim Report will be posted to shareholders in late September 2003. Copies
may be obtained during normal business hours from the Company's Registered
Office, Exchange House, Primrose Street, London EC2A 2NY.
By order of the Board
F&C Emerging Markets Limited, Secretary
3 September 2003
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange