Interim Results

F&C Latin American Inv Trust PLC 04 September 2003 Embargoed until 07.00am on 4 September 2003 Contact: Rupert Brandt, F&C Emerging Markets, 020 7628 8000/ Emma Chilvers, Lansons Communications, 020 7294 3606 F&C LATIN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Unaudited Statement of Results for the half-year ended 30 June 2003 HIGHLIGHTS • Following the war in Iraq, there has been a dramatic rally in Latin American markets, caused by a combination of an improving economic outlook and low valuations. • The Company's Net Asset Value rose by by 29.4% in US dollar terms over the period, which compares favourably to a rise of 25.1% by the IFCG Latin American US$ Total Return Index. • The share price appreciated by 25.0% and the warrant price appreciated by 38.3% over the same period. • This favourable trend has continued. Between the end of the period and 2 September 2003 the Company's NAV has appreciated by a further 12.3%, the share price by 12.3% and the warrant price by 42.9%, which all out-performed the IFCG Latin American US$ Total Return Index's 10.0% rise (all in US$). • Brazil is benefiting from the combination of a powerful domestic reform agenda, an improving economic outlook and extremely attractive valuations. • Mexico should be a key beneficiary of the expected acceleration in the US economy. • The Andean markets performed well over the period. However, we generally experienced problems investing in these markets due to liquidity constraints and in some cases we also felt that the opportunities available were less attractive than in the larger markets in the region. SUMMARY OF RESULTS 30 June 2003 31 December 2002 % Change Net assets attributable to equity shareholders US$ 151.1 m US$ 116.8 m +29.4 Net assets per share - basic 204.87 cents 158.37 cents +29.4 Net assets per share - diluted 189.19 cents 149.64 cents* +26.4 Share price 155.00 cents 124.00 cents +25.0 Warrant price 56.00 cents 40.50 cents +38.3 * Restated in accordance with the revised SORP issued in January 2003. Extracts from the Chairman's Statement Performance Your Company's net asset value per share on 30 June 2003 was 204.87 cents, a rise of 29.4% over the half year. This compares favourably to the 25.1% rise in the IFCG Latin American US$ Total Return Index for the period. The rally in Latin American markets was driven by a dramatic improvement in global sentiment after the Iraq war combined with very encouraging newsflow coming out of the region with the Brazilian and Argentine stockmarkets in particular mounting sharp recoveries from the very depressed levels they ended 2002. The Company's outperformance was focused in the second quarter of the period. The outperformance was generated by the combination of the successful use of tactical gearing, a substantial overweight in Brazil which we added to in the aftermath of the Iraq War and positive stock selection in both Brazil and Mexico. The share price for the same period rose by 25.0% from 124.00 cents to 155.00 cents. The discount started the period at 17.1%*, traded in a volatile range over the six months and ended the period at 18.1%. The warrant price appreciated by 38.3% in US dollar terms over the same timeframe. We would like to bring shareholders up to date with the latest performance figures between the end of the review period and the preparation of the interim report. Since the period end and 2 September, your Company's NAV has appreciated by a further 12.3% in US dollar terms which continued to compare favourably to the IFCG Latin American US$ Total Return Index's 10.0% US dollar gain. The share price has appreciated by 12.3% and the warrant price has appreciated by 42.9% over the same period. We have actively managed the gearing over the review period. Effective gearing started the period at 11.1% of net assets; it was reduced through asset sales to 10.6% at the end of January and was then consistently increased through asset purchases from February to 12.2% by the end of April, where the level peaked. Since May, the Company has been reducing gearing into market strength and effective gearing ended the period at 9.0% of net assets. Despite extremely volatile market conditions over the period, it was pleasing to note that large sellers of shares were able to find buyers. There were no share buy backs over the period. On 1 April 2003, Rupert Brandt succeeded Emily McLaughlin as the Company's portfolio manager. Rupert is 33 years old and joined F&C in 1994. He has been closely involved with the management of the portfolio since 1998 with particular responsibility for investments in Argentina and Mexico and has extensive experience of Latin America. Market review Argentina The IFCG Argentina Index appreciated by just under 66% in US dollar terms over the period. This was driven by a significant change in the market's assessment of Argentina's economic outlook. At the start of the year, sentiment was very depressed. The Argentine economy had experienced the worst recession in its history. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had fallen for four consecutive years culminating in an 11% decline in local currency terms in 2002. The Argentine peso depreciated against the US dollar by 70% in 2002 and an estimated 55% of the population were living in poverty. The silver lining of the 2002 devaluation crisis was that the Consumer Price Index was limited to a rise of 40%, which transformed Argentina from being the least competitive economy in Latin America to being one of the most competitive. We saw this as an opportunity and built a position in Argentina in January. The improvement in competitiveness catalysed an export-led recovery, with agricultural, wine, oil, mining and export oriented manufacturing companies experiencing some of the best business conditions in a decade. Exports rose by 16% in US dollar terms in the first half of 2003 compared to the same period a year earlier. This is likely to result in a trade surplus of close to 10% of GDP in 2003, which has facilitated a major economic recovery. We are currently forecasting 5% real GDP growth in 2003. Industrial production grew in double digits in every month in the first half of 2003 against the same month last year. Consumption has also started to recover helped by a boom in tourism and by domestic consumers spending some of the money that has been returned from the 2002 bank account freezes. We have recently become concerned that the market's perception of Argentina has gone from one extreme to another. Sentiment in the Argentine stockmarket appears to be currently euphoric and we believe that the market is not efficiently discounting the enormous challenges ahead for this economy. A new IMF package has to be signed by September 2003, the defaulted international debt has to be restructured and the government will have to start to tackle the problems in the domestic banking sector.. Nestor Kirchner's victory in the May 2003 presidential election is also a further cause for concern. Since coming to power on 25 May, Kirchner has imposed 180 day capital controls and friction in the relationship between the Argentina and the IMF has increased which has in turn increased the overall the level of political risk. Kirchner has also said that he favours a substantial rise in public sector salaries, which if implemented, would risk undermining the hard won primary fiscal surplus. We are also disappointed by the new government's complete lack of a reform agenda, which might cause the current economic recovery to lose steam towards the end of 2003 once comparisons become tougher. As a result of becoming more cautious in our Argentine outlook, we started to reduce the size of our position toward the end of the period and since 30 June we have subsequently sold the bulk of our position and realised a substantial profit. Brazil Brazil was the Company's principal overweight position relative to the benchmark index throughout the period where the Company had an average geared weight of 50.5% compared to the IFCG Latin America's average weight of 37.0%. We added to our position in March and April and benefited from the sharp recovery in the Brazilian stockmarket in the second quarter. We took some profits in Brazil in June in anticipation of short -term consolidation over the summer months, but have remained overweight relative to the index and expect the market to perform well again in the fourth quarter of 2003. The IFCG Brazil Index appreciated by just over 32% in US dollars in the first half of 2003. The market has warmed to Brazil's new president, Lula, who took office on 1 January 2003. As promised in his election campaign, Lula has pursued a very modern, pro market form of socialism. He has presented the boldest reform program that Brazil has seen in almost a decade and, if successful, his reforms could mark a major turning point for Brazil's long-term future. The most important measure is the social security reform, where Lula is trying to reduce the annual deficit of the public sector pension scheme, which was forecast to snowball in size in the long term from an already high level of 4.1% of GDP in 2002. If he succeeds, there will be an immediate fiscal benefit derived from taxing current retirees, but more importantly for the long term, the deficit would fall materially and be more actuarially balanced. The main part of the social security reform is expected to be passed during the fourth quarter of 2003. Other reforms include a new bankruptcy law, which helps banks foreclose on bad debtors, the creation of an independent Central Bank and a major simplification of the unwieldy tax system. There will be plenty of other reforms needed in the future, including a new regulatory platform for the utility industry and private sector pension reform (which is a longer-term issue). These reforms should allow Brazil simultaneously to accelerate its long-term growth rate and improve its fiscal accounts, which amongst other things makes a debt default far less likely. The net effect of a majority of these reforms being passed is that Brazil's long-term risk premium is likely to fall materially, which should support a continued positive re-rating of Brazilian equities. The Brazilian economy remained relatively subdued in the first six months of 2003, characterised by a strong external sector offset by weak domestic demand, which is experiencing a modest contraction in consumption. Exports grew by 29% in US dollar terms in the first five months of the year compared to the same period last year which, combined with only a 0.1% US dollar increase in imports in the same period, helped the current account move from a deficit to a small surplus. In the first quarter of 2003, GDP grew by 2%, with the export component of GDP rising by 20% and private consumption contracting by 2.3% compared to the same period last year. We anticipate a relatively weak result for second quarter 2003 GDP and for 2003 we forecast GDP will grow by 1.5%. The combination of the appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar and very high nominal and real interest rates caused inflation to fall consistently over the period. Consumer price inflation started the year at a dangerously high level with a 2.25% month on month increase in January, but this eased to a -0.15% month on month change in June. The market consensus for consumer price inflation over the next 12 months has now fallen to close to 7%, which lays a foundation for a very rapid reduction in nominal interest rates. The Brazilian Central Bank started the monetary easing process in June when it cut the key Selic interest rate by 50 basis points to 26%. We believe that as long as inflation remains under control, nominal interest rates can fall by up to 1000 basis points over the next 12 months, which should help stimulate activity in the domestic economy. We expect GDP growth to accelerate in 2004 to over 3%. An acceleration in GDP growth should help corporates grow their profits and this should provide further support to the stockmarket. The fall in the Selic rate also has the potential to improve Brazil's increasingly robust fiscal position in 2004 as a large percentage of the government's debt is linked to the Selic rate. Mexico We materially adjusted the nature and size of our position in Mexico several times during the period but remained overweight throughout the period compared to the benchmark index. Initially we reduced our exposure to Mexico in January as we felt the market would sell off in the run up to the Iraq war. Around the time of the Gulf War we materially increased the 'beta' of our positions in Mexico, building substantial positions in the rapidly growing cellular and media industries which subsequently outperformed the market in the rally in the second quarter. We kept the overall position size in Mexico relatively constant in this period, financing the buys by selling defensive 'low beta' stocks. Toward the end of the period we increased the weight in Mexico through the purchase of a collection of medium sized companies which we believe are all well positioned to benefit from the acceleration in the US economy that we are forecasting in the second half of 2003. The IFCG Mexico Index produced a solid absolute return but underperformed the region in the first six months of 2003, rising by 14.5% in US dollar terms. The benefit of positive stock selection in the Company's positions more than offset the negative impact of being overweight in Mexico during this period. The Mexican economy has been relatively subdued in the review period. In the first quarter of 2003, GDP grew by 2.3% compared to the same period last year and the market is forecasting second quarter GDP to only grow by 0.5% compared to the same period last year. We are expecting Mexican GDP to grow by close to 2% for the full year 2003, with a likely acceleration in 2004 depending on the strength and timing of the pick up in the US economy. In the first half of 2003, Mexican growth was held back by the weak global environment and in particular the subdued state of US manufacturing. Exports to the US are an integral part of Mexico's economy, representing 30% of GDP. Mexico currently exports more to the US than Japan and is the US's second largest trading partner. We are forecasting an acceleration in US manufacturing in the second half of 2003 and after a small lag, this should feed through to Mexico's economy. The Mexican Central Bank has won its hard fought war against inflation, with consumer price inflation expected to be close to 3-4% in both 2003 and 2004. This has enabled Mexico to bring its interest rates down to very low levels that are almost equivalent to a developed country. The key 28 day Cetes rate ended the period at just 5.11%. One of the consequences of Mexico being able to bring down interest rates to such low levels is that the demand for credit is likely to grow far faster than overall GDP when the economy accelerates. Financial services penetration in Mexico is astonishingly low with commercial loans equivalent to only 15% of GDP, which could provide an additional growth engine in the domestic economy in 2004. Chile We were underweight Chile throughout most of the period until June, when we added to our positions building an overweight position relative to the benchmark, which we continued to increase in July. The IFCG Chile Index appreciated by 27.9% in US dollar terms over the period. The three main factors behind this strong performance were an improvement in the regional outlook, rising commodity prices and a brighter domestic macroeconomic outlook. As mentioned above, the reform process in Brazil and improving economic conditions in Argentina led to improved sentiment towards both of these countries. Though the overall exposure of the Chilean economy to Brazil and Argentina is limited, a number of stocks have subsidiary operations in these countries. Also, Chilean assets and the currency are impacted by regional sentiment. The Chilean peso is correlated to the Brazilian real and at times has been used as a proxy for hedging Brazilian currency risk. Low interest rates at 2.75% and a more constructive global environment have helped to boost Chilean economic activity and this, combined with a general rise in commodity prices, has led to a more favourable outlook for growth in Chile. First quarter 2003 GDP growth was better than expected at 3.5% compared to the same period a year earlier and it looks increasingly likely that 2003 GDP growth will accelerate to at least 3% from 2002's 2.1% rate. However, this is still a long way below Chile's potential growth rate. The successful passage of the proposed Chile-US free trade agreement through the House of Representatives at the end of the period also boosted sentiment. Venezuela We ran a zero weight in Venezuela throughout the period. This was partly because we judged the overall risk reward trade off in the market to be relatively unattractive compared to the other markets in the region, and partly because we were unable to build positions in the shares of companies that we judged to be attractive. At the start of the period it was very difficult to buy shares in these companies because of liquidity constraints, and later in the period the problem was compounded by the imposition of capital controls. The year started with a continuation of the general strike, which was perceived as a thinly veiled attempt to get President Chavez to step down. The general strike was centred around PDVSA, the state oil company, and unfortunately ended with the government sacking 18,000 employees and Mr Chavez staying in place. The damage to the economy has been great with first quarter 2003 GDP falling by 29% compared to the same period last year. The IMF forecast that after an 8.9% decline in GDP in 2002, Venezuela's GDP will fall by a further 17% in 2003. The only saving grace for Venezuela is the continued strength in oil prices, which provides both a strong income stream for the government and a healthy external account. After allowing a partial float in 2002, the Central Bank allowed the currency to depreciate a further 33% at the start of 2003. After a sharp downward movement in the currency the government introduced capital controls and fixed the exchange rate (at a level about 40% above black market rates). Capital controls have starved the economy of US dollars and have contributed to the poor economic performance in Venezuela. As inflation picked up (34.2% in the 12 months to end of June) local investors hemmed in by very tight foreign exchange capital controls used the equity market as a hedging instrument which helped the IFCG Venezuela Index appreciate by 59% in US dollar terms over the period. The market is beginning to anticipate another devaluation, which is showing in the American Depository Receipt (ADR) prices that have moved to large discounts compared to their local equivalents. Venezuela was also removed from a number of global indices during the period because the foreign exchange controls made local Venezuelan shares effectively uninvestable for many foreign investors. Colombia President Uribe is continuing to make positive headway in improving the security situation in Colombia but a lot of work remains to be done and terrorist activity continued throughout the period. His approval rating remains high at 64% and he generally has the support of the judiciary. The IMF gave formal approval to a US$2 billion two-year standby program for Colombia in January. As usual the IMF required structural reforms and budget discipline, which required the passage of various pieces of legislation. Congress approved a fiscal responsibility law and Uribe is currently trying to freeze civil servants salaries for two years, which would provide another 1.4% of GDP in fiscal savings in 2004. GDP growth is relatively robust with the economy growing at 3.8% in the first quarter of 2003 compared to the same period last year, but unemployment remains stubbornly high at 15.7%. The Central Bank has increased interest rates by 200 basis points so far this year to 7.5% in an attempt to meet its inflation target of 6% for 2003, which is slightly below the trailing 12 month 7.2% inflation rate. We ran a zero weight position in Colombia throughout the period because we were unable to buy shares in the companies we liked due to a lack of trading liquidity. Peru A 5.2% GDP growth rate in 2002 made the Peruvian economy the fastest growing economy in the region last year. First quarter 2003 started well with a 5.1% growth compared to the same period last year, but there are signs that economic growth has started to rapidly decelerate during the second quarter of 2003. Political uncertainty is continuing to rise in Peru because of President Toledo's lack of popularity which has undermined the credibility of the government. Toledo's popularity fell to an 11% approval rating in May, which set a new low, before bouncing at the end of the period to a still low 13%. Teachers, farmers and health workers went on strike in May and the President announced a 30 day state of emergency. In order to counter low government popularity a sweeping cabinet reshuffle took place in June. In the same month the government announced a fiscal austerity package, in part to pay for teacher's salary increases. Security issues appear to be becoming a much more important issue again, for example 71 Techinct employees were kidnapped whilst working on the Camesea gas field during the period. We ran a sharp underweight position in Peru throughout the period with our exposure focused in the gold mining sector. We wanted to invest in a number of other Peruvian companies during the period but we were unable to because a lack of trading liquidity. Outlook We continue to have a positive outlook for Latin America over the next twelve months. Latin American equity markets are still trading at very attractive levels with the region on a forecast 2003 price to earnings ratio of close to eight and a half times, which is very low compared to other regions of the world and compared to Latin America's own historic trading range history. We see a broadly positive global backdrop characterised by a gradual global economic acceleration, a continued fall in global risk aversion and plenty of liquidity in the G7 caused by record low interest rates. We believe that economic momentum is likely to gradually pick up across the region over the remainder of 2003 and into 2004 and expect this to drive corporate profit growth. The main risks to our positive outlook for the region includes a stall in the reform process in Brazil, a disappointment in the rate of growth in the US economy and another terrorist atrocity in the West which would result in a major increase in global risk aversion. We entered the second half of the year with overweight positions in Mexico, Brazil and Chile and zero or underweight positions in Peru, Colombia and Venezuela. The Company has found it very difficult to invest in the shares which it considered to offer the best risk reward characteristics in the Andean counties this year because of extremely low trading liquidity in these stock markets. The Board is consequently considering changing the benchmark index from the IFCG Latin America Total Return Index, which it believes its becoming increasingly outdated and less used by its shareholders, to a benchmark index which gives liquidity and invisibility a larger weight in determining the index constituents. Conversations will take place with shareholders over the next several months with a view to changing the benchmark from 1st January 2004. The Board intends to respond appropriately to the relevant provisions of the Financial Reporting Council's new Combined Code on Corporate Governance and the new AITC Code of Corporate Governance, both of which were published just after the review period. Peter Burnell Chairman September 2003 *Calculated in accordance with revised SORP (see note 1, page 16). Discount at 31 December 2002, as previously reported was 19.0%. Statement of Total Return (incorporating the Revenue Account*) 6 months to 30 June 2003 6 months to 30 June 2002 Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s Gains/(losses) on investments - 33,166 33,166 - (30,177) (30,177) Exchange (losses)/gains - (152) (152) (7) 26 19 Income 3,439 - 3,439 3,670 - 3,670 Management fee (1,168) - (1,168) (1,521) - (1,521) Loss on warrants purchased for cancellation - - - - (8) (8) Other expenses (382) (12) (394) (349) (25) (374) Net return before finance costs and taxation 1,889 33,002 34,891 1,793 (30,184) (28,391) Interest payable and similar charges (367) - (367) (452) - (452) Return on ordinary activities before taxation 1,522 33,002 34,524 1,341 (30,184) (28,843) Taxation on ordinary activities (224) - (224) (263) 8 (255) Return on ordinary activities after taxation 1,298 33,002 34,300 1,078 (30,176) (29,098) Dividend on ordinary shares - - - - - - Amount transferred to/(from) reserves 1,298 33,002 34,300 1,078 (30,176) (29,098) Return per ordinary share (basic) - cents 1.76 44.74 46.50 1.44 (40.50) (39.06) Return per ordinary share (diluted) - cents 1.69 1.33 *The revenue column of this statement is the profit and loss account of the Company. All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from continuing operations. Balance Sheet 30 June 30 June 2002 31 December 2003 2002 US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s Fixed assets Listed investments 164,118 169,606 130,370 Current assets Debtors 1,953 1,311 841 Taxation recoverable 109 109 109 Short-term deposits 7,013 - 13,011 Cash at bank 1,717 4,246 3,474 10,792 5,666 17,435 Current liabilities Creditors: amounts falling due within one year US dollar bank loans - (29,500) (29,500) Other (1,517) (1,387) (1,462) (1,517) (30,887) (30,962) Net current assets/(liabilities) 9,275 (25,221) (13,527) Total assets less current liabilities 173,393 144,385 116,843 Creditors: amounts falling due after more than one year US dollar bank loans (22,250) - - Provision for liabilities and charges - (455) - Net assets 151,143 143,930 116,843 Capital and Reserves Called up share capital: including non-equity share capital 7,400 7,475 7,400 Share premium 61,544 61,544 61,544 Capital redemption reserve 313 238 313 Warrant reserve 4,356 4,792 4,356 Capital reserves 77,945 71,031 44,943 Revenue reserve (415) (1,150) (1,713) Total shareholders' funds 151,143 143,930 116,843 Equity interests 151,119 143,906 116,819 Non-equity interests 24 24 24 Total shareholders' funds 151,143 143,930 116,843 Net asset value per ordinary share Basic - cents 204.87 193.13 158.37 Diluted - cents 189.19 178.16* 149.64* * Restated in accordance with the SORP issued in January 2003. The geographical distribution of total assets less current liabilities (excluding loans) at 30 June 2003 was: Brazil - 39%; Mexico - 38%; Chile - 15%; Cash - 5%; Argentina - 2%; Peru - 1%. Cash Flow Statement 6 months to 6 months to 30 June 2003 30 June 2002 US$'000s US$'000s Net cash inflow from operating activities 1,983 1,562 Interest paid (361) - Taxation paid (224) (275) Net cash outflow from purchases and sales of investments (1,751) (4,168) Net cash outflow before use of liquid resources and financing (353) (2,881) Decrease in short-term deposits 5,998 6,500 Net cash outflow from financing (7,250) (13) (Decrease)/increase in cash (1,605) 3,606 Notes No dividend will be paid on the ordinary shares. The interim financial accounts have been prepared on the basis of the accounting policies set out in the Company's financial statements at 31 December 2002. Diluted net asset value per ordinary share has been calculated in accordance with the Articles basis as set out in the Statement of Recommended Practice ' Financial Statements of Investment trust Companies' (SORP) issued in January 2003. Prior period figures have been restated accordingly. The above financial information comprises non-statutory accounts within the meaning of section 240 of the Companies Act 1985. The financial information for the year ended 31 December 2002 has been extracted from published accounts for the year ended 31 December 2002 that have been delivered to the Registrar of Companies and on which the report of the auditors was unqualified. The Interim Report will be posted to shareholders in late September 2003. Copies may be obtained during normal business hours from the Company's Registered Office, Exchange House, Primrose Street, London EC2A 2NY. By order of the Board F&C Emerging Markets Limited, Secretary 3 September 2003 This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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