Interim Results
British Land Co PLC
29 November 2001
PART 1
29 November 2001
PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT BY
THE BRITISH LAND COMPANY PLC
INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS TO 30 SEPTEMBER 2001
HIGHLIGHTS
* Net Asset Value per share fully diluted increased 1.4% to
785 pence, excluding FRS 19** (March 2001: 774 pence).
* Portfolio Valuation up 0.3% (on a like for like basis) to
£9.24 billion.
* Net Rents up 6.5% to £230.9 million, including share of
joint ventures (2000: £216.8 million).
* Profits before tax of £80.0 million (2000: £84.5 million
which included the £15.3 million one-off Liberty receipt). Profits
after tax were £63.3 million (2000: £60.3 million).
* Earnings per share are 12.2 pence (2000: 11.6 pence).
* Interim Dividend up 5.6% to 3.8 pence per share.
* Continued Portfolio Management with profitable sales of
£276.6 million, targeted purchases of £555.7 million and development
expenditure of £82.9 million.
* Major Pre-let of 375,000 sq ft at £54 psf in respect of
office space to Accenture at Plantation Place.
** NAV adjusted to exclude the effects of additional deferred tax arising from
the adoption of FRS 19 and UITF 28.
Commenting on the outlook, John Ritblat, Chairman said:
'In spite of short-term concerns, prospects for the areas of the market where
we are primarily invested are encouraging. There is a premium for prime space
in the City, and British Land is well placed for the market pick-up expected
next year.
Consumers have been busy buying, with retail volumes up 5.7% between October
2000 to 2001, and for household goods (largely in out-of-town retail) up 10.4%
for the same period. This must feed through over time to rents and values in
our retail portfolio.'
* Board Appointment - Mr Graham Roberts, FCA, a senior real
estate partner at Andersen, will join the Board in January 2002 as Finance
Director designate. Mr John Weston Smith will remain an executive director of
British Land and its Chief Operating Officer.
PORTFOLIO VALUATION £m Total % Change %*
Offices City 3,432.4 37.2 +0.3
West End 500.6 5.4 +1.4
Other 187.3 2.0 -1.7
All offices 4,120.3 44.6 +0.4
Retail Shopping centres 1,751.7 19.0 -0.4
Shops 412.9 4.4 -0.3
Retail warehouses 866.6 9.4 +0.9
Supermarkets 1,007.2 10.9 -0.1
All retail 4,038.4 43.7 +0.0
Industrial and Distribution 100.5 1.1 -0.1
Leisure and other 209.2 2.3 -1.2
Residential 130.4 1.4 +3.4
Development 642.1 6.9 +1.7
Total Valuation 9,240.9 100 0.3
*after adjustment for purchases, properties awaiting development, sales and
other expenditure.
In their Valuation Certificate for the portfolio at 30 September 2001, ATIS
Real Weatheralls said:
'The property investment market has seen less activity than in the period to
March, particularly since the September 11 atrocity. Values have generally
stabilised. We believe the case for fresh investment in property is now
justified particularly with finance rates at their current level, forecast to
fall further, and the low returns available elsewhere. The British Land
portfolio is characterised by long leases offering secure income streams which
should benefit from these circumstances and become increasingly valuable with
the tendency elsewhere to move towards shorter lease terms.'
Total funds under British Land property management, including partners' share
of joint ventures, now £11 billion.
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
Value by location £m Total %
London: City 3,707.6 40.1
West End 690.6 7.5
Greater London 388.5 4.2
Total London 4,786.7 51.8
South East England 971.8 10.6
Wales & South West England 423.4 4.6
Midlands & East Anglia 668.3 7.2
North of England 1,963.4 21.2
Scotland & Northern Ireland 324.0 3.5
Republic of Ireland 103.3 1.1
9,240.9 100
Current Reversionary
Reversionary potential Net Yield % Net Yield %
City offices 5.3 6.8
West End offices 5.9 9.0
Shopping centres 5.8 7.1
Supermarkets and Retail warehouses 6.7 7.2
Other 7.3 8.0
Overall portfolio (excluding 6.0 7.2
developments)
Reversionary income £105 million.
30 September 31 March
Portfolio Statistics 2001 2001
Annualised net rents 517.4m £492.9m
of which, share of joint ventures 102.2m £97.0m
Weighted average lease length 18.5 years 19 years
Current net yield 6.0% 5.9%
Reversionary net yield 7.2% 7.3%
Rental Income
British Land - Group only
Gross Rents rose by 5.1% to £200.7 million (2000: £190.9 million)
Net Rents up 3.8% to £187.5 million (2000: £180.7 million)
British Land - including share of Joint Ventures:
Gross Rents rose by 7.9% to £247.6 million (2000: £229.5 million)
Net Rents up 6.5% to £230.9 million (2000: £216.8 million)
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Six months to Six months to
30 September 2001 30 September 2000
(restated)
Profit and Loss Account
Gross rental income £247.6m £229.5m
Gross rental income - Group £200.7m £190.9m
Net rental income £230.9m £216.8m
Net rental income - Group £187.5m £180.7m
Profits on property trading £17.3m £13.9m
and disposal of fixed assets
Other income £7.3m £23.9m
Net interest payable £157.4m £154.8m
Profit before taxation £80.0m £84.5m
Tax charge £16.7m £24.2m
Balance Sheet 30 September 2001 31 March 2001
(restated)
Total properties* £9,240.9m £8,859.9
Net assets £4,123.0m £4,063.9m
Net asset value per 795 pence 784 pence
Net asset value per share 769 pence 759 pence
(fully diluted)
Debt/equity ratio - Group 98% 91%
Mortgage ratio - Group 48% 46%
The above include the external valuation surplus on
development and trading properties
* Pre adjustments for UITF 28
Total Return for the six months 1.9% (2000: 5.7%)
The Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2001 comply with
Financial Reporting Standard 19 (Deferred Tax) and Urgent Issues Task Force
Abstract 28 (Operating Lease Incentives) and the comparatives for the six
months ended 30 September 2000 and year ended 31 March 2001 have been restated
accordingly.
All figures include British Land's share of joint ventures unless stated as
Group.
30 September 31 March
Financing statistics - Group 2001 2001
Net debt £4,037m £3,717m
Weighted average debt maturity 16.9 years* 17.8 years
Weighted average interest rate 6.63%* 6.91%
Undrawn committed bank facilities and cash £1,184m £1,323m
% of net debt at fixed/capped interest rates 90% 89%
Difference between book and market values of debt,
net of tax (FRS 13) £178m £162m
* Securitisation of the Meadowhall Shopping Centre has been announced, raising
£825 million, with a further tranche of c. £50 million expected during 2002.
The applicable weighted average interest rate is 5.51% with an average term of
21 years. This non-recourse asset specific funding increases the Group's
weighted average debt maturity to 20.7 years and reduces the weighted average
interest rate to 6.62%.
The £575 million securitisation of the Sainsbury's supermarkets was completed
in June 2001.
CONTACTS
The British Land Company PLC
John Ritblat, Chairman ) 020 7467 2831/2829
John Weston Smith, Finance Director ) 020 7467 2899
Finsbury Limited
Edward Orlebar ) 020 7251 3801
Faeth Finnemore )
British Land's Corporate Strategy
British Land's opportunistic but risk averse strategy seeks to achieve long-
term growth in shareholder value by:
* focusing primarily on leading, quality assets in the office, retail
and development areas, which provide exceptional long-term investments,
* creating a high quality, modern portfolio with growth potential,
coupled with covenant quality and a long lease profile,
* recycling capital and enhancing returns through acquiring assets which
offer the scope to add value through active management,
* maximising equity returns through innovative financing and joint
ventures.
The key to the maximisation of returns is flexibility, both in terms of the
business organisation and financing to take advantage of shifts in the property
market.
STATEMENT BY THE CHAIRMAN, MR JOHN RITBLAT
Over the last 6 months the Board's commitment to our long-term strategic goals
has resulted in a number of significant achievements in British Land's
business, irrespective of uncertainties in the current economic climate.
* On the development front, within 6 months of a revised
planning consent earlier this year we secured the largest ever letting in the
Company's history, a pre-let of 375,000 sq ft to Accenture at Plantation
Place. It is significant that the deal was signed after the tragic events in
the U.S.A. We have started immediately on a 507,000 sq ft first phase to
accommodate this letting, and Accenture has an option to call for the
remainder of the space on agreed and indexed terms. Accenture also has first
refusal on the second phase, which is currently the subject of a further
improved planning application.
* The principal acquisitions have been 22 Homebase stores
and, through our new joint venture BL Davidson, the property company Asda
Property Holdings, with a portfolio of some £480 million which complements
and thus extends our holdings in quality offices and out-of-town retail
warehousing. We have also bought in the half we did not own of the Peacock
Centre in Woking. Total purchases amount to £555.7 million and development
expenditure to £82.9 million.
* The programme of refining the portfolio continues. Sales
total £276.6 million in the half-year, including British Land's share of joint
ventures.
* Even after these sales, gross rental income, including
our share of joint ventures, is up to £247.6 million.
* Profits before tax are £80 million.
* Net assets per share are up 1.4% to 813p from 802p
(undiluted). Balance sheet asset values are underpinned by an independent
Discounted Cash Flow valuation which shows an enhanced position on an ongoing
basis as compared with the traditional realisation basis.
Financial Reporting Standard 19 now requires us to deduct deferred tax from
Net Asset Value, and British Land's deferred tax arises from the perceived
possibility that on a sale there might be clawback of capital allowances, even
though tax law permits us to 'elect' to retain the benefit - and thus prevent
clawback. With this deduction - which has no effect on cash flow, tax
liabilities or on the value of properties and which will never take effect
because of the election procedure - the half-year NAV per share was up 1.4%
from 784p to 795p. It must be questioned whether shareholders - or indeed
anyone else - is better informed as a result of this accountancy change.
* The Interim dividend is 3.8p, up 5.6% from last year's (3.6p).
Valuation
The half-year valuation shows an upward change from the last year-end, being
positive overall with an uplift of 0.3%.
We have recently assessed the effectiveness of the valuation processes carried
out by our independent professional valuers, and they have emerged well from
this review. We tested their performance by comparing their Estimated Rental
Values with actual Rent Reviews achieved in respect of over 100 reviews
conducted in the half-year. The outcome was that on average we did better
than their ERVs, but only by 1.3%, proving their accuracy. There were wider
variants on some properties as one would expect in a market.
Critics of the valuation process rarely acknowledge the range of variables and
judgements that have to be made in respect of any given valuation. Elements
include the condition and age of the property; the unexpired lease term and if
this is short what might happen at the expiration; the location and
comparables, both on rents and capital values. Other issues are the covenant
strength of the tenant - is it getting stronger or weaker - and of course
construction materials - especially so if the building contains deleterious
matter.
The price achieved on a sale may differ from the valuation, for instance if
the purchaser owns the adjoining site, or if a planning consent has been
secured after valuation but pre-sale, having been too speculative to embrace
at the valuation date. Pre-letting of a development also lifts value.
Our valuation surveyors are not told in advance which of our properties we
will be selling in the future and therefore testing capital values. Over the
past 5 plus years we have sold over £2.1 billion of property in excess of
valuation.
In addition over half of the portfolio has been submitted to 'second opinions'
as our securitisations have involved other outside valuers. There have been
negligible differences between these extra valuations and our regular
semi-annual reports.
Taking an entirely different approach, we have also conducted an innovative
Discounted Cash Flow valuation which provides a check on the conventional
process, as shown elsewhere in this Report. This allows investors to compare
property income flow more readily with other investment options.
Financing
During the half-year we completed the securitisation of 35 Sainsbury
superstores, raising £575 million against a value of £677 million, a
loan-to-value ratio of 85%, at an average rate of 6.8% and an average term of
17 years. Currently we are engaged in raising £875 million in securitised
debt on the Meadowhall shopping centre, of which £825 million is to be
received immediately, at a rate of 5.51% and an average term of 21 years.
This reduces our overall average cost of money to 6.62%, and lifts our overall
average debt maturity to 20.7 years.
It also increases available cash and bank facilities to £2 billion.
Securitisation provides the Company with long-term fixed rate debt at low
interest rates, giving stability to the balance sheet and reducing risk. We
employ the proceeds to reduce bank indebtedness, freeing up revolving bank
lines so that we have ample liquidity for deals, developments and our
business.
Board Changes
We are pleased that Graham Roberts, FCA, has accepted an invitation to join
the British Land board as an executive director in January 2002. He brings a
varied and wide professional experience, specialising in property interests,
which will be an added strength to our management team. He will succeed John
Weston Smith as Finance Director on 31 March 2002, the end of our financial
year.
I am equally glad that John Weston Smith will remain an executive director on
the main board. As Chief Operating Officer he is also retaining his existing
appointment as Managing Director of The British Land Corporation, the
principal management and operating company for the Group.
Prospects
The strength of the portfolio ensures that there is no pessimism here.
We have a structure and a strategy designed to cope comfortably with downs as
well as ups, and substantial cash and facilities as a cushion against any
fluctuations. As the Company is unlikely to be a forced seller, we are able
to plan ahead with equanimity to meet the demands of the market and the
expansion of the economy through the cycle.
British Land has well located, diversified, predominantly freehold, modern
buildings let to strong tenants on long leases, the average length being 18.5
years.
The rising cash flow from reversions and developments is enhanced by gearing
and by active management to squeeze the best there is of growth when interest
rates and inflation are low.
Whether or not this is a permanent or temporary economic state, we anticipate
that property yields must themselves be influenced by the downward trend in
interest rates, giving the prospect of further upward capital movements.
I continue to believe more than ever that there are few better investments
than well-based Real Estate to match long-term obligations and aspirations.
FINANCIAL REVIEW
Results
Group net rental income is up 3.8% to £187.5 million (2000: £180.7 million).
£9.7 million of increased rents were achieved from rent reviews and new
lettings. Acquisitions contributed £7.6 million to rental income, and
property disposals effected a reduction of £11.3 million.
The rise in British Land's share of joint venture operating profits to £42.8
million (2000: £35.1 million) was mainly due to £7.4 million from the new
joint ventures BL West and London & Henley Holdings. The profit on investment
property disposals of £11 million (2000: £12 million) principally arose in
respect of properties disposed of in prior periods.
Profit before tax is £80 million compared to £84.5 million; profit before tax
for the six months to September 2000 was boosted by the £15.3 million one-off
Liberty receipt. Before this receipt and profits on disposal of properties,
underlying profits increased by £7.4 million (13.4%).
Net interest payable has increased by only 1.7% to £157.4 million despite an
increase in net debt of some 13%. Principally, this reflects the benefits of
the repurchase of unsecured bonds in April 2001 which have been replaced with
less expensive borrowings. Interest cover has been maintained at 1.5 times.
The tax charge for the period is £16.7 million, an effective rate of 20.9%
(2000: £24.2 million, 28.6%). The effect of adoption of FRS 19 'Deferred Tax'
was to increase the tax charge for the current period by £3.1 million and the
prior period by £6.8 million.
The growth in after-tax profits increased earnings per share by 5.2% from 11.6
pence to 12.2 pence, and an interim dividend of 3.8 pence per share (up 5.6%)
is proposed.
Balance Sheet
Net asset value rose by £59.1 million to £4,123 million in the six months to
30 September 2001. On a per share basis this is an increase of 1.4% to 795
pence. Excluding the effect of the £94.8 million FRS 19 deferred tax
provision, net assets per share are 1.4% higher at 813 pence. On a fully
diluted basis the rise is to 769 pence and 785 pence respectively.
The increase in net assets arises principally from retained profits and
valuation surpluses, partially offset by taxation on the sale of 73% of St
Stephens Green Shopping Centre, Dublin. The main movements in the Balance
Sheet are from property purchases, the establishment of the BL Davidson joint
venture and the deferred taxation provision.
The debt / equity gearing ratio is 98% whilst the debt / property and
investments mortgage ratio is 48%.
Accounting Policy Changes
The Group has adopted FRS 19 'Deferred Tax' and Urgent Issues Task Force
(UITF) Abstract 28 'Operating Lease Incentives' although the latter is
immaterial for the Group.
FRS 19 requires that deferred tax should now be provided in full on all timing
differences that are not permanent. FRS 19 has no effect on actual tax
payments. In compliance with FRS 19 full provision has now been made for the
potential tax liability arising from the benefit of capital allowances,
although no such clawback is expected.
Treasury
In June the Group securitised the rental income on 35 Sainsburys supermarkets,
raising £575 million against a value of £677 million, a loan to value ratio of
85%, with a weighted average interest rate of 6.8% and weighted average
maturity of 17 years. The proceeds were used to repay bank borrowings. In
November the Group announced the securitisation of the rental income at
Meadowhall Shopping Centre which will raise £825 million with a further
tranche of £50 million to be marketed in 2002. The weighted average interest
rate of this funding is 5.51 % and the average life is 21 years.
At 30 September 2001, net debt is £4,036.5 million (March 2001: £3,716.8
million) with a weighted average cost of 6.63%, of which 90% is at fixed or
capped rates of interest and has a weighted average debt maturity of 16.9
years. Cash and available committed bank facilities were £1,184 million
(March 2001: £1,323 million).
Incorporating the Meadowhall securitisation will extend the weighted average
maturity of the debt by 3.8 years to 20.7 years while the weighted average
interest rate will be 6.62%. The average term of the debt compares favourably
with the weighted average lease length of 18.5 years. Cash and available bank
facilities will rise to £2 billion.
PROPERTY REVIEW
Valuation
The valuation of all properties in the British Land portfolio and situated in
the United Kingdom (but excluding Tesco British Land Property Partnership and
Tesco BL Holdings) was undertaken by Chartered Surveyors, ATIS Real
Weatheralls (formerly known as Weatherall Green & Smith). An extract from
their Certificate appears below.
The portfolio, including development properties and British Land's share of
joint ventures, was valued at 30 September 2001 at £9.24 billion. On a like
for like basis, the portfolio showed an increase of 0.3% for the first six
months of the financial year.
The small overall uplift is generally derived from the various sectors of the
portfolio as follows:-
(i) Office investments overall increased in value by 0.4%:
City and West End investments increased by 0.3% and 1.4% respectively, while
such investments in other areas (being a small part of the portfolio)
decreased in value by 1.7%.
(ii) The retail warehouse investments increased by 0.9% with
shopping centres, supermarkets and high street shops falling between 0.1% and
0.4%. This resulted in no overall change in value for the retail portfolio
over the six month period under consideration.
(iii) British Land's interests in leisure and industrial/
distribution reduced in value by 1.2% and 0.1% respectively.
(iv) The residential investments (including the 50% share in the
London & Henley joint venture) total £130 million and showed a 3.4% increase
in value for the six months.
The current net yield on the portfolio excluding developments is 6.0%, with a
reversionary net yield of 7.2%. The total reversionary income is £105
million, excluding developments.
Property Asset Management
At 30 September the portfolio, including the joint ventures, comprised circa
860 properties and 3,375 leases. During the six months to September 2001,
approximately 140 rent reviews were settled and these resulted in increases in
rental income of £12.6 million per annum. In that period, sales of some 238
properties were completed and some 120 leases were granted.
The portfolio has been positively managed during the period with vacant
possession of a number of properties being achieved, enabling them to be
re-let profitably. A number of investment properties are being refurbished or
extended. In particular, agreement has been reached with J Sainsbury Plc and
Tesco plc to fund extensions to 12 stores amounting to 18,500 sq m (200,000 sq
ft) of additional floor space.
The dimension of the joint venture with Scottish and Newcastle has changed
during the six months: 152 properties (which were considered to be ex-growth)
were sold back to Scottish and Newcastle and solicitors are instructed for the
purchase of a further 24 properties from them. The current total is now 128
public houses totalling approximately 23,500 sq m (253,000 sq ft) of trading
area, predominantly located in the South of England.
The Broadgate Centre, London EC2
Following the successful settlement at £590 per sq m (£54.80 per sq ft) in
respect of 19,000 sq m (205,000 sq ft) in Exchange House where the review date
was December 2000, further rent review progress was made in reaching agreement
at £635 per sq m (£59.00 per sq ft) for 743 sq m (8,000 sq ft) at 155
Bishopsgate, as at March 2001. In both of these instances the rents achieved
were in excess of rental values incorporated in the 31 March 2001 valuations
undertaken by ATIS Real Weatheralls. Aggregate passing rent is some £152
million per annum. Valuation £2.912 billion.
Planning consent has now been received for the redevelopment of Hamilton House
to provide a net internal office area of 13,290 sq m (143,000 sq ft). This
compares with 6,227 sq m (67,000 sq ft) in the existing building. It is
anticipated that construction will start summer 2002.
The enhancement of the external circulation areas at Broadgate has commenced
with completion of the first phase due in December 2001, which alone will add
420 sq m (4,500 sq ft) of retail space.
Meadowhall Shopping Centre, Sheffield
Rents passing have risen as anticipated to £60.7 million per annum following
settlement of 18 rent reviews during the six months to September 2001, and are
expected to increase further to approximately £67 million per annum when the
outstanding rent reviews and lettings have been completed. Valuation £1.28
billion.
Some 13 new lettings have been concluded, including top retailers such as
Swarovski, Ted Baker and French Connection. The new Allders Home concept has
opened in the majority of what was the C. & A. store and has been well
received by the Centre's customers. The balance of the C. & A. store has been
let to Argos, enabling them to extend their existing store.
The customer loyalty card scheme is now live and approximately 28,000
customers have subscribed to date. The installation of the fibre optic ring,
including a retailer intranet to enable fast and efficient communication has
been completed with about half of the tenants already connected. The
remainder will follow after the Christmas trading period.
The Meadowhall website has been remodelled and recently won the Business
Internet Magazine 'Best Website Design' and 'Best Overall Site'. This is
continuing to receive some 35,000 'hits' per day.
The Centre Management team has built upon their earlier successes in being
awarded the British Safety Council 5 Star Environmental Management Audit.
The Peacocks Centre, Woking
This property (excluding the leisure centre) is now wholly owned by British
Land. The fully enclosed Centre was completed in 1992 on three principal
levels of retail trading area around a glazed atrium. The total floor area is
29,700 sq m (320,000 sq ft) with car parking for 2,350 cars. This prime Town
Centre scheme is anchored by Allders (12,700 sq m/137,000 sq ft), M & S Food
Store, Primark, TK Maxx and Woolworths. There are a further 80 retail units
where tenants include Next, Monsoon, Accessorize, River Island and Virgin.
The lower trading level has a 400 seat food court with popular offers
including Aroma and KFC. The total rent passing is approximately £5.4 million
per annum.
Development
Activity has continued apace since March.
At 30 September 2001, the total development programme extends to 849,000 sq m
(9.1 million sq ft) with a cost to complete of £1.5 billion and an ERV of £211
million, of which British Land's shares are £1.1 billion and £167 million
respectively.
Of this programme, some 135,000 sq m (1,450,000 sq ft) in seven principal
buildings is currently under construction representing committed costs to
British Land of £404 million, with a cost to complete of £245 million, and an
ERV of £49 million.
We were pleased to announce in September the pre-letting to Accenture at
Plantation Place of 32,795 sq m (353,000 sq ft) of offices at £581 per sq m
(£54 per sq ft), together with ancillary storage space, and with options over a
further 13,935 sq m (150,000 sq ft) exercisable before practical completion.
Construction commenced immediately with piling now in progress.
New Century Park, Coventry, a 60.7 hectare (150 acre) site predominantly
occupied by Marconi, was purchased for future redevelopment. 2 hectares (5
acres) was sold immediately for residential development.
A further 8.9 hectares (22 acres) at Delta Park, Enfield was purchased in
joint venture with Gazeley Properties, for the development of up to 42,000 sq
m (450,000 sq ft) of warehouse and distribution facilities.
Some 55,500 sq m (600,000 sq ft) of development was completed, notably: a
10,220 sq m (110,000 sq ft) light industrial building at Redditich (in joint
venture with Gazeley Properties Ltd) and 19,975 sq m (215,000 sq ft) of
pre-let office and other accommodation at Blythe Valley Park.
EXTRACT FROM ATIS REAL WEATHERALLS VALUATION CERTIFICATE, PORTFOLIO VALUATION
30 SEPTEMBER 2001
'City of London Offices
There is notably more caution than prevailed at March with letting activity at
low levels. Many prospective tenants (we believe there are in excess of ten
companies with significant requirements) will probably postpone taking new
space on account of the present uncertainties. Some companies are reviewing
whether they wish to be in a single building.
On a more positive note, whilst some organisations have reduced personnel,
they are 'mothballing' space rather than releasing into the market. Thus with
the all important supply of floor space remaining tight, the softening of
demand should not have any material effect on rental levels. Additionally,
banks have been far more careful in speculative lending during this cycle with
the result that there is virtually no new overhang of supply. Accordingly we
expect rental levels to broadly plateau rather than decline.
Rent reviews however may prove more testing, with only limited evidence upon
which to rely and certain tenants subletting space at lower levels. All of
this means that despite a fair medium term outlook, yields have not moved in,
despite the various shifts in base rates and the fact that longer term rates
have shifted in about 35 basis points since March.
Within the British Land City portfolio the most significant event is probably
the preletting of a major part of the Plantation Place scheme to Accenture and
thus signalling the earlier commencement of construction. The £54 psf
headline rent achieved compares favourably to speculative completions in the
vicinity. Discussions are ongoing concerning rent reviews on the Broadgate
estate and with potential occupiers for 201 Bishopsgate, the company's other
major joint venture City development.
West End Offices
The occupational market has 'cooled'. Occupiers have indicated to their
agents that they are placing relocation decisions on hold, and prime rents
have eased. They now rest between £80 and £85 psf. Take up has fallen,
albeit from the exceptional levels of the last two years, but the vacancy rate
remains at an historically low level of 4.8%.
Despite this, investor demand remains positive, particularly, as in all areas,
for long, well secured income streams.
Retail Warehousing
This is one of the few sectors where investors are buying with genuine
expectations of strong rental growth over the short to medium term. Although
rents may plateau temporarily in some locations, there is some way to go
before the many out of town occupiers see rents reach the limits of affordable
levels. In Greater London even bulky, DIY users are expecting to see £35 psf
as the norm. Similar levels can be forecast throughout the South East/Home
Counties, and rents further North have already reached around £30 psf for the
better centres and major City locations.
Leisure
Sentiment toward the sector is understandably muted, as was the case 6 months
ago. Itself a relatively risky business area, the anticipated slowdown in
consumer expenditure (although still defying all predictions) can only serve
to worsen prospects further. With prospects for rental growth patchy, and
covenants generally weakening across the sector there are few areas of appeal
to the investment market. The exception to this can probably be found in the
British Land joint venture Public House portfolio where the strong Scottish
and Newcastle covenant is married to long unexpired lease terms, and a variety
of longer term alternative uses. This is the type of investment that should
benefit from cheaper finance and fundability.
Supermarkets
The investment market remains strong on the back of generally good leases and
covenants and relative scarcity of this form of investment. Prime initial
yields provincially are around 6.75% but in London we would expect to see
these at around 6.5% with ERVs substantially higher than elsewhere.
These are good candidates to benefit from any advantageous yield shifts that
may occur on the back of relatively low returns available elsewhere, and the
gap between funding costs and property returns. This would be to the benefit
of British Land with the extensive representation that the company has in this
investment category.'
AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW - DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW EVALUATION
Prepared by ATIS Real Weatheralls
This is an alternative view of the Company's portfolio to help shareholders
evaluate its worth. It takes each year's cash flow on the basis of rents paid
quarterly in advance, discounted at the rate shown in the column on the left
of the table. Capital values have been calculated using different rental
growth rates to enable the investor to assess the potential of the Company's
income stream to produce capital growth in the future.
Matrix for Cash Flows over Twenty Years
1. All capital values are stated gross of purchasers' costs as the business
is ongoing.
2. For this calculation the combined average rate of purchasers' costs has
been taken as 4.95%. This rate has been derived by applying the appropriate
cost on a property by property basis. In the case of valuations undertaken by
CB Hillier Parker and Jones Lang LaSalle, the flat rate is 5.75%.
3. Exit yields used are set at 7%.
4. British Land's share of joint venture properties is included.
Discount Present capital values (£m) at various discount rates
rates and growth rates per annum for a period of 20 years
5.00% 12,778 15,880 17,431 18,982
6.00% 11,416 14,080 15,412 16,744
7.00% 10,246 12,541 13,689 14,837
8.00% 9,240 11,223 12,214 13,206
Rental growth rates 0% 2% 3% 4%
The value of the portfolio in the Balance Sheet, net of purchasers' costs, is
£9.241 billion. The equivalent current gross value of the portfolio is £9.697
billion, which equates to a 7.5% discount rate and a 0% growth rate.
Assumptions
* Sites for development have been taken at the Capital
Value as reported on the British Land Balance Sheet and decapitalised at
appropriate rates.
* The value and cash flow figures for properties located
outside the U.K. have been converted to Sterling (£) using appropriate
conversion rates.
* No ongoing costs, e.g. refurbishments or other
non-recoverables have been allowed for.
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