Final Results

Caledonian Trust PLC 20 December 2001 COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT CALEDONIAN TRUST PLC - FINAL RESULTS TO 30 JUNE 2001 Caledonian Trust PLC, the Edinburgh based property investment company, announces its audited Results for the year to 30 June 2001. CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT YEAR ENDED 30 JUNE 2001 Introduction The Group made a profit of £88,047 in the year to 30 June 2001 compared to £ 1,138,806 last year. No property sales are included in this year's results whereas last year's profit included £511,962 profit from sales. Rent and service charges were a net £723,064 less this year compared to last year due primarily to a reduction of £837,114 in income from St Magnus House, Aberdeen, where the 55,352ft(2) now let to Enterprise Oil PLC was vacant until 24 November 2000 and then occupied rent free until 24 April 2001. Property rental outgoings were £155,482 lower as expenditure at St Magnus fell from £726,082 to £649,196 with the conclusion of the upgrading and refurbishment for Enterprise. Outgoings also fell £80,700 at Stoneywood because the karting centre has been let for the whole year. Administration costs increased by £145,475 due mainly to the higher fees incurred in the redevelopment and subsequent letting at St Magnus. Net interest costs were £ 45,035 higher than last year as secured loans increased over the year by a net £2.594m to £14.853m and the average base rate compared to last year rose 0.23% points to 5.81%. Base rate is currently at a 37 year low and will average 4.67% for the half year and, if there are no further changes, 4.33% for the full year. On 30 June 2001 the Group's portfolio comprised by value 68.32% office investment property (of which 85.31% is open plan), 19.41% industrial investment property, 1.71% retail investment property and 10.56% property held for development. Review of Activities Aberdeen has been the main focus of our property activities both during the financial year and subsequently. In St Magnus House, our 80,173ft(2) modern open plan office in the city centre, I reported last year on the £5.5 million contract that commenced in early June 2000 and was completed in late November 2000, which comprised the replacement of the faulty curtain walling at a cost of about £2.25 million of which a substantial amount is recoverable from the tenants, and at the same time the upgrading and refurbishment of floors 2 - 5 including the provision of raised floors and comfort cooling together with the upgrading of the main electricity supply. This contract included the internal fit-out of all Enterprise's floors to an exceptionally high standard and was completed in time to enable Enterprise to take occupation and operate from St Magnus from mid November 2000. I commented last year that to complete such a complex and varied programme on time, on budget and to such a high standard was a remarkable achievement for the company and it's professional team. In view of this I am particularly glad to report that the fit out of the Enterprise floors was judged by the British Council of Offices the best in the United Kingdom in 2001. Substantial works have also been undertaken on the public areas at St Magnus. The gym was entirely refurbished and new equipment installed in the spring of this year and the landscaping has been redesigned in more appropriate materials and style. The remaining public areas including the main staircase will be refurbished in the spring. Since the year end we have refurbished the remaining vacant 4,834ft(2) area on the first floor to the same high standard as the Enterprise offices and this was also let to Enterprise Oil on 5 November 2001 at £17.50/ft(2). The rent review on the 5,976ft(2) occupied by Pierce Production Company Limited due in February 2001 has recently been agreed at £16.50, even although this is one of two small suites without air conditioning and raised floors. We have achieved a remarkable turnaround at St Magnus. It is now almost wholly refurbished to the highest standards, is entirely let to outstanding covenants on leases which largely run until 2015, and based on the recent letting the building is highly reversionary. The investment value is likely to be further enhanced by the development by Stannifer Properties and Railtrack plc of the 10 acre site immediately south of St Magnus, comprising mainly redundant railway sheds, goods yards and bus and rail stations, who have recently received detailed planning permission for a large retail and leisure development which I understand will proceed shortly. Our second interest in Aberdeen comprises the Stoneywood Business Centre, a fifteen acre office and industrial property in Dyce, Aberdeen, comprising fourteen separate premises, most of them let on short leases. This time last year we learned that BP, whose northern hemisphere headquarters is adjacent to Stoneywood, were considering several sites including ours for a new 380,000ft (2) headquarters. Site assessment and capital project budgeting and planning took many months but in August 2001 BP entered into detailed negotiations with us and within 15 working days missives were signed for this very complex transaction. The consideration of £9.05 million will be paid in two tranches, £7 million in January 2002 and the balance in November 2002, the company having the benefit of the lease income and continuing to manage the property until then. Changes to our Edinburgh investment properties have been much less marked than to those in Aberdeen. Early in the financial year we completed the sale of 46 Albany Street for £637,000, which had been under missive at the year end. We have refurbished the offices at 57 North Castle Street where the lease determined in December 2000 and we have it under offer to John Menzies for 10 years on full repairing and insuring terms. After a long delay, caused primarily by planning conditions, we recently completed the letting of 9 South Charlotte Street, a traditional Georgian building on three floors, to La Tasca Restaurants Ltd, a themed Tapas chain, on a full repairing lease for 25 years. The lease on the 4 floors at 61 North Castle Street not occupied by the company determined in October 2001 and we intend to refurbish the ground and first floor for office use and convert the second and third floors into residential use, subject to planning consent. Our largest investment property in Edinburgh, St Margaret's House, a 92,845 ft (2) open plan office let to the Secretary of State for the Environment until November 2002 continues to be appraised for different uses. The Scottish Parliament now operates a dispersal programme whereby there is a presumption against the location of offices for civil servants in Edinburgh when new agencies or departments are formed, or where leases on existing properties determine. St Margaret's House has two occupiers and present indications are that one of the occupiers will relocate to new premises in the Scottish Borders while the second occupier, the Registers of Scotland, will transfer all their staff into their other premises. Thus there will be no lease renewal. We continue to consider the many other possible uses for the building and the site and we have commissioned two separate architectural feasibility studies including one incorporating the much larger triangular island site bounded by the A1 London Road, the main line railway and Restalrig Road. Such an overall scheme, which has very considerable planning advantages would provide up to 400,000 ft(2) of offices or up to 500 residential units, possibly with ancillary retail and leisure uses. However such a scheme would entail a very long planning period and, given the government ownership of most of the adjacent property, there would be considerable administrative, financial and political difficulties. The St Margaret's site is probably unique in offering the possibility of a large scale modern office development in the city centre near to the Scottish Parliament and to the rapidly developing east centre of the city. Several other options for St Margaret's are available. These include differing degrees of refurbishment and recladding with or without extensions. Alternatively, part of the site could be developed for residential, hotel or office use while the main building was refurbished or converted. The existing frame permits the insertion of raised floors and air handling and leaves floor to ceiling heights equivalent to those achieved in the award winning St Magnus. Surprisingly it closely resembles the structure that would be designed today for a residential building of that type and size, although considerable remodelling and insertion of staircases and lifts would be required to give the necessary differentiation and fragmentation. The size, prominence and location of the site just east of the city centre on an arterial route together with excellent retail and recreational facilities nearby make it a very attractive residential site. Currently we are considering a number of proposals from established national housebuilders. The sale of Stoneywood for the development of BP's office and the prospects for development at St Margaret's have blurred the previous clear lines between our development and our investment portfolios. Within the existing development portfolio there have been fewer changes. In Baylis Road, near Waterloo, SE1 we have renegotiated a three year lease on improved terms with the existing tenants. Recently there has been an amazing growth in both the residential and the office market nearby and this has enhanced the prospects for the future use of the existing property or of a redevelopment. The decision to delay any redevelopment for a further three to four years is likely to enhance further the value of the site. We continue to have a number of enquiries for our development site in Belford Road, Edinburgh, where we have a detailed office consent. We have recently reconfigured the internal layout and increased the net lettable area by 1,500ft(2) to 22,500ft(2) altogether. We own three small residential sites within commuting range of Edinburgh. At Eskbank, where we have planning permission for 5 houses, we have at last obtained the necessary variation on the planning required to circumvent an access problem and have demolished the existing building. We intend to let the building contract and to commence building in 2002. Our second residential site for 8 detached houses borders Musselburgh and is within 400 yards of the main line station at Wallyford. A contiguous area is now likely to be developed for a large number of private houses and this development should radically alter the character of the existing settlement and greatly enhance the value of our site. We expect development to take place here in two or three years. Our third site, lying just east of Dunbar, should accommodate 17 houses. Dunbar lies on the A1 and funding has recently been approved for the completion of the dual carriageway there from Edinburgh. This together with the rapid expansion of Dunbar as a residential commuting centre for Edinburgh and as an improving town with very considerable community facilities provides excellent long term prospects for this development. We are currently negotiating to extend the area within our ownership in order to minimise unit overhead costs. Economic Prospects There is one main topical issue: is there going to be a UK recession and, if so, how deep and long is it going to be? Unfortunately the accurate prediction of recessions is very rare and the IMF have shown that of the 60 recessions around the world during the 1990s only 2 were predicted in advance by private sector forecasters. This years downturn was not generally foreseen, as although in November 2000 the Economist's poll of forecasters expected 2001 growth in GDP of 2.7% for Britain, 2.1% for Japan, 3% for the Euro-11 and 3.3% for the USA, the current estimates for 2001 are 2.2%, -0.6%, 1.5% and 1% respectively. Current 2002 forecasts show a further 0.8% contraction in Japan but growth in all these other economies at about 0.5% points less than now expected in 2001 : lower growth but at least no long term recession, apart from Japan. The inaccuracy in forecasting recessions generally and the error in the estimate of GDP growth in 2001 does not invalidate these predictions for 2002, although it makes acceptance of them subject to more rigorous analysis. Recessions are rare, albeit sometimes very severe, as in Japan at present, and over long periods Western Economies have grown at compound rates of 2 - 3%p.a. usually recovering from any recession with more rapid compensatory growth. Recessions usually follow a severe economic disjuncture caused by war, abrupt technological change, economic reform or inflationary booms and, as the probability of accurately predicting the occurrence and timing of such unusual future events is very low, the probability of predicting recessions is also very low. At present some of the usual pre conditions for a recession have already been met. In particular there has been a spectacular collapse in the growth of sales and the expected future market for a wide range of high tech goods, notably telecoms and computers, together with the realisation that installed or planned production capacity is well in excess even of the previously expected market. The result has been an implosion in that sector, of which the most obvious UK example has been the collapse and severe financial problems of Marconi. An investment bubble, similar to the South Sea bubble or the tulip mania or the Mississippi development, has burst, of which the worst effects are to be found in the USA. The terrorist attacks in and the threats to the USA and the resulting war in Afghanistan together with the reflex-like freezing of activity and decision-making, which have severely undermined confidence, provide a second possible trigger for recession. The short-term effects in the USA have been dramatic. Following slow growth at an annual rate of only 0.3% in the second quarter of 2001, GDP contracted at a rate of 0.4% in the third quarter, the largest fall since the trough of the 1990-91 recession and Goldman Sachs expect the last quarter decline to be 3.5% with a further 1% contraction in the first quarter of 2002. A major factor in the US recession is the fall for 13 consecutive months in industrial output, now the longest since the Great Depression of the 1930s resulting in 6.5% less output, fortunately less than the 50% drop from 1927 to 1932, but still resulting in a capacity utilisation of 25.2% below potential. The US recession is full blown. The impact on the world economy and on the UK in particular depends whether it is a sharp V shaped recession before the normal recovery or a slower U shaped one or, much more seriously, an L shaped depression, such as may develop in a post bubble economy. Recent US recessions have lasted for an average of only 11 months but the post bubble crash in 1929 lasted 3 years while the Japanese correction which started in 1989 has persisted over a decade so far. Fortunately there are several factors that indicate that there will not be deflation and that a long-term recession is unlikely. The non-economic factors already seem much more favourable then even a few months ago. The war against the al Queda and their Taliban hosts has been brilliantly conducted by the USA and so far successful beyond any prognosis. The relatively muted US reactions to the Anthrax scares and to the recent air crash over New York indicate that confidence is not eroding further and may even be returning. Economic management and economic events are also likely to contain the US recession. Unlike almost all recent UK recessions that have been accompanied by high inflation and have required high interest rates to choke demand the USA is entering the recession with an inflation rate of only 2.6% and interest rates of 1.75%, the lowest for 40 years. As the maximum impact of changes in monetary policy occurs after about 9 months the eleven recent interest rate reductions should provide a timely stimulus. The anti-terrorist proposals will add up to $40 billion to central expenditure and this, together with possible tax cuts and aid, could add as much as 1.5% to GDP next year. Fortunately, the US enters the recession with the lowest overall commodity prices for the last 15 years. In particular the oil price which was over $30 in November 2000 is now under $20, a reduction sufficient to increase world GDP by about 0.5% after a 1 - 2 year lag and in the US the effect is particularly beneficial as lower crude oil prices translate into immediate relatively large retail price reductions. The beneficial effect of low commodity prices is reinforced by low output prices as the world economy has the highest excess global capacity since the 1930's. Other factors suggest an early recovery. The US economy slipped into recession in March 2001 and by February 2002 will already have run for two thirds the average time of all recessions since 1854 and the average time of all recessions since World War II. Leading indicators of a recovery include a sales rise by 7.1% in October as more cars were bought than in any previous month, a rise in interest rate futures presaging a tightening of policy in summer 2002 and rising equity prices since the September low, traditionally a leading indicator for economic conditions six months hence. The balance of evidence is that the forecasters who proved so fallible in not forecasting the recession will be proved correct in forecasting an upturn in the US economy in 2002. A probable recovery of the US economy in 2002 will assist in limiting the reduction in growth in the UK economy where the Economist consensus poll predicts growth dropping from 2.2% this year to 1.7% in 2002 with some forecasts as low as 1%. The Bank of England assesses that on unchanged interest rates there is only a 20% chance of growth in 2002 dropping below 1% and its central projection is for 2% growth rising to 2.5% in 2003. The chance of a recession is estimated at 1 in 10. In the UK the factors likely to preclude recession are essentially the same as those mitigating the US recession, including successive cuts in interest rates to the present 4%, the lowest for 37 years, a 7.8% fall in the Economists' all commodity price index this year and a drop of about 30% in oil prices. Fiscal relaxation will also assist in maintaining growth. Government receipts are below Treasury forecasts, and expenditure is greater due to Foot and Mouth Disease, the war and increasing unemployment, and further increases are planned for public services. Goldman Sachs forecast that the budget will scarcely balance this year and will be £7.7 billion in deficit next year, unless taxes rise. The economy is currently supported by a 6% growth in consumption. Property Prospects The CB Hillier All Property Yield Index rose 0.6% points to 7.3% in the year to August 2001. The principal components of this rise were a 0.8% points rise in shop yields, which at 7.0% are now 1.2% points higher than in early 2000, and a 0.5% rise in office yields. Over the same period the yield on 10 year Gilts dropped 0.4% points resulting in an increase of 1.0% points in the ' Yield Gap' between Gilts and All Property, which has now risen consistently since early 1998 to 2.4% points, the largest since the index was first compiled in 1971. A Yield Gap had occurred only once previously, and then for only a brief period following Sterling's ejection from the ERM in September 1992 when it exceeded 1% point for a few months at the bottom of the then property slump. Traditionally the lower property yield reflected its perception as in part an 'equity' stock where growth in rents would more than compensate for the lower initial yield. However apart from the last two years property has compared poorly with other asset classes and this has contributed to the rise in property yields. For instance over the ten years to December 2000 property returned 9.2%, Equities 15.0%, Gilts 12.5% and cash 7.2%. Since property returns were negative in the early 1990s, capital values falling 30.9%, the current and prospective 10 year averages are flattered as the early negative years fall out of the computation of the average. However in 2000, due to the long overdue fall in equity prices, Property was the best performing asset class at 10.4% narrowly exceeding Gilts at 9.2% while Equities lost 5.9%. In the 6 months to 30 September 2001 Property returned 3.3%, again exceeding Gilts at 1.9%, while Equities lost 12.5%, although these results are heavily influenced by the consequences of the September terrorist attacks. The All Property five year average rental growth is 8.2% p.a., the most recent 12 months have shown only 5.9% and the last 3 months to August 2001 only 0.5%, the slowdown being most marked in Offices, 0.1% growth and Shops 0.4%. These changes are due mainly to lower economic growth and a prospective further slowdown. In these periods Shop rental growth has been the poorest due primarily to the growing influence of other distribution channels, especially retail warehouses. The slowing rental growth is not indicative of high real rents as the All Property rental index adjusted for inflation is still 10% below the peak reached in May 2000. Thus property has high current yields and rents below previous real peaks, investment features which combined with present low short and long term interest rates compares favourably with competing investment areas. Earlier analysis concluded that UK growth would dip in 2002 but return to the long-term trend, say 2.5%, in 2003. Recent experience and the yield gap between index linked and 'normal' Gilts shows expected future inflation to be around the 2.5% target and therefore the current Gilt yield, say 5%, is likely to continue unchanged. The premium return earned on UK equities over Gilts from 1900 - 2000 was 4.6% and if this persists, and if the prospective Gilt yield is 5% then an equity return of 9.6% is implied. The equity return is considered to be the dividend yield, currently 2.9%, plus dividend growth rate, an implied 6.7% in this case. Real growth in the economy is unlikely to exceed the historic 2.25% - 2.5% and if inflation averages 2.5% then money GDP will probably grow by up to 5%. Thus, unless growth is higher, either the equity premium return is overstated or equities are overvalued. Per contra property appears conservatively valued yielding on average 7.3% and, even if rents only grow with inflation, returns almost 10%. The rental growth figures discussed relate to a period ended before the September terrorist attacks which will have further depressed overall economic activity, and will have reinforced the developing USA recession. Certainly the immediate effects in the travel, tourism, airline and leisure industries and their suppliers seem significant. Surveys conducted by the Estates Gazette post 11 September show significant changes in forecasts for 2002 with the average forecast for rental growth being reduced from 2.8% to 1.3%. No rental growth is now forecast for offices and business parks whereas previously it was 3% or more and only 1% growth is now expected for most other categories, less than half the previous forecast. However the forecast for retail warehouses is broadly unchanged at over 2.5%. For 2003 a much smaller adjustment has been made with rental growth expected to recover to 2.4%, only 0.5% points less than the pre 11 September survey. This implies that the long term economic effect of such a one-off disaster will probably be very small, especially if, as now seems likely, the threat of similar atrocities is minimised. Post 11 September forecasts for total returns are 6.8% in 2001, 7.8% in 2002 and 9.8% in 2003, which compare favourably with those likely to be available from Gilts and Equities. In Scotland the previously reported disparity between cities and sectors has become less marked. In Aberdeen the market is more sensitive to oil price movements than to the overall economy. In late 1998 the Brent crude oil price dropped below $10 but rose to over $25 for most of 2000 and 2001 until the recent rapid slide to below $20. Higher prices normally result in higher profits and investment lagging the price rise by one to two years and this is evidenced by BP's huge current investment programme including the proposed £ 110m headquarter building on our Stoneywood site. Take up of offices in the year to March 2001 was over 480,000ft(2), 40% higher than in the previous year, and significantly higher than the 365, 000ft(2) average over the last ten years. Recently a record rent of £20 was achieved in the Hill of Rubislaw and several new schemes are being built or are planned. However take-up in the six months to 30 September 2001 has fallen and supply has risen to a record 1m ft(2), including a significant proportion of secondary and unrefurbished space. Nevertheless, rents have risen slightly for good quality space while yields remain at c.8%. In Edinburgh the success of the office market continues, albeit activity has moderated and prices are below the previous peak. The take-up in the year to 30 September 2001 was 750,000 ft(2), down from the 1m ft(2) of the last two years, but equal to the ten-year average. Supply is over 1m ft(2), the first time supply has exceeded annual take-up since 1997, best rents are below the previous highs of £29 in the City Exchange District and of £25.50 at Edinburgh Park and Ryden report investment yields have increased slightly to 6.5 - 6.75%. The poorer recent performance of this market has been due to slower growth in certain sectors of the economy notably Telecoms, IT and certain financial services. Until almost 10 years ago Edinburgh's offices were predominantly converted townhouses supplemented by Government type office blocks, usually located in the suburbs. Subsequently Edinburgh has had the fastest rate of growth of offices in the UK apart from London and the office stock is now approximately 20m ft(2) compared to 16.4m ft(2) in 1996 and 16.0m ft(2) in 1992. Continued expansion of the office sector seems likely and the City of Edinburgh Council predict that over the next 15 years 20,000 new office jobs will be created requiring over 500,000ft(2) of new space per year. A recent independent study predicted that Edinburgh would replace London as the fastest growing city having 'successfully transformed itself into a flourishing service sector economy.' Cambridge Econometrics forecast that in the years to 2005 most European cities, except those with a large manufacturing base, will grow more rapidly than their national economies and Edinburgh will have the highest growth rate of any city in the UK. Many factors contribute to this high growth rate. The size, scale and reputations of the existing businesses encourage other organisations to establish in Edinburgh and it has been suggested that the city now has ' critical mass' and is at a size that permits some specialist institutions to achieve external economies. A major feature attracting inward investment is the 'lifestyle'. Over the last few years there has been a transformation in the quality and variety of entertainments and cultural and leisure activities servicing both the local population and the growing tourist trade for whom a much enlarged and wider range of accommodation is available. These improvements supplement the existing elegance, diversity and history of the New Town, the Old Town and increasingly of the Forth and Leith water fronts. It is therefore not surprising that the EU Statistical Office found Edinburgh the most attractive city in Europe. Historically Edinburgh has had the lowest unemployment rate in Scotland. The growth in the local economy has increased employment and resulted in an increasingly large number of employees commuting to Edinburgh, especially from West Lothian and from North of the Forth where transport times are shortest. In consequence rail traffic has increased by 8% per annum for several years, and an additional effect has been that the East of Scotland has the highest net immigration in the whole of the EU. Demand for houses in the Edinburgh area has been rising for many years. The employment opportunities and the resultant immigration comprise large components of increased demand. Other components include increased student numbers, the continuing projected reduction in household size and an increasing number of second homes. The latest official estimate is that 52,000 additional units will be required in Edinburgh and Lothians by 2015. Housing supply is relatively inelastic. Rising residential values and much lower rentals for 'townhouse offices' have seen a small increase in city centre residential accommodation. By 1998 Ryden estimated that 250,000ft(2) of office space had returned to residential use, say 250 units. However scope for continuing reconversions is now limited to say 50 - 100 units per year and planning controls will limit further development or redevelopment in the city centre. Outside the city centre substantial redevelopment continues to take place with the few remaining longstanding gap sites being developed and industrial and distribution premises being redeveloped. However the planning process is lengthy and the retention of central jobs is an important planning consideration . Thus this type of supply is limited and slow to be released. In more peripheral areas development is taking place on former industrial or quayside land in Leith and long-term plans for substantial development are being progressed at the former gas works site and associated grounds at Granton, on the Forth west of Leith. An equally large proposal, the 'South East Wedge', is situated inside the City Bypass in South Edinburgh and North Midlothian where 5800 houses are proposed. Further afield substantial housing estates are being added to existing settlements usually near good road or rail links where equivalent houses sell at up to a 40% discount to more central property. The result of a restricted supply of and an increasing demand for new houses has been a significant rise in price. In the 1990's Edinburgh and the Lothians average prices rose 5.25% p.a. while UK prices rose 2.2% p.a. Over the last five years to mid 2001 house prices have risen 8.75% p.a. and, not surprisingly, the highest rises have been in the city centre and the lowest in East Lothian where transport links have been poor. In the same period new house prices have risen over 10% p.a. Edinburgh house price rises compare very favourably with commercial property rental growth, although the comparison varies significantly between the 10 year and 5 year performances, largely because 1990 represented the peak of many of the commercial indices. The 10 year Edinburgh house price rise of 66.5% exceeded the UK All Property rental index of 8.4%. Over the 5 years to 2000 Edinburgh house prices have risen 42.1%, similar to the UK All Property rental index, 46.4%, and to Scottish shops, 42.7%, but well above Scottish offices, 15.1%, and Scottish industrials, 17.7%. Retail warehouses had the highest growth, up 71.7%. Over the 12 months to 30 June 2001 Edinburgh house prices have risen 6.1% but the Scottish Commercial Property rental index rose only 1.7%. The present and prospective Edinburgh housing market has many of the characteristics previously attributed to good commercial markets : supply is limited, the best locations are tightly defined and demand is increasing. These qualities now apply less and less to office and retail property, but have rarely applied to industrial property. Until 1990 Edinburgh prime office property existed only in an area tightly focused on Charlotte Square and St Andrew Square and the price gradient was very steep. Now, just over 10 years later, after only a relatively small increase in stock, the area is much wider, the gradient is less steep, and there is an additional focus at the Gyle. The rental difference between the Gyle in the West, the 1980's traditional centre, the Exchange, Tollcross in the South and Leith Street in the East is small and these sites encompass a very large area. Similar growth in competition has affected the previous exclusivity of the retail centre as retail parks and out of town shopping centres have been exceptionally successful. In Edinburgh these trends will continue. The Edinburgh residential sector has always had several key fashionable areas. The prices of houses in these areas will continue to rise rapidly with nearby commercial property benefiting as residential use becomes more valuable than existing use. However the tight planning controls will delay, restrict or prevent the change in use. The growing demand for and the restricted supply of houses presents a significant commercial opportunity. Future Progress The Group should return to reasonable profitability in the current year, as the refurbishment costs at St Magnus are greatly reduced and rental voids there have been nominal. The sale of Stoneywood for £9.05m to BP payable £7m in January 2002 and the balance in November 2002 will provide a significant addition to profits. We are currently marketing St Magnus and if an acceptable sale price is agreed this will provide a further but smaller profit. The full outcome for the financial year will depend on any change in net valuation. The sale or sales in Aberdeen represent the maturing of our investment policy there after the creation of the full available development value. This occasion also defines the transition of the company from one primarily investing in reversionary commercial property, held for a long period of time, to new wider policies. The sale of Stoneywood on which borrowing was modest will provide the cash backing to effect these changes. A major thrust of the group will be the acquisition of and realisation of development opportunities, particularly in Edinburgh residential property. The development of our 22,500ft(2) office development in Belford Road has been delayed while we negotiated with potential occupiers or purchasers and we now intend to undertake work to resolve the remaining outstanding engineering issues. In Baylis Road we have extended the lease with the existing tenants for three years in order to undertake the development in improved market conditions. We continue to investigate possible uses for our St Margaret's Edinburgh site, including a very large comprehensive mixed development and refurbishing to varying standards to produce a large multi-let high yielding office investment. However the most profitable use appears to be residential. If house values continue to increase then the gearing effect on our site, which could hold up to 200 units, would be most attractive. The group already has three small residential sites, on one of which work has commenced. We are attempting to purchase other potential residential sites which could be developed in the medium term. Yields on most investment properties have risen recently while interest rates, short and medium term, are at very low levels. Where rental growth is expected to be at or above inflation, returns to equity can be above 15%. We intend to build up a portfolio of such investments to create a high income fund based on secondary properties that have either an excellent covenant or more importantly an excellent location. As an extension of this policy we are discussing with other independent investors the creation of a joint fund of this type on a much larger scale which would allow these individuals diversified access to commercial property for long-term capital growth and income. Lastly we will seek to be opportunistic. In the past our high gearing and poor cash availability coupled with a limited track record prevented us from benefiting from opportunities that we had identified, constraints that no longer apply. The mid market price is currently 98.5p, a considerable improvement over the 51.0p I reported last year and a discount of 26.4% to the NAV reported in the interims. Over the year we have bought in 211,726 shares and this contributed to a higher NAV and a lower discount. We propose to continue to buy in shares as we believe that the recent and prospective growth in NAV warrants a discount that is below the sector average. The Board recommend the payout of a 0.5p final dividend, unchanged from last year because of the smaller trading profit, but we intend to increase the dividend at a pace consistent with consideration for other opportunities. The current tax charge will be nil as at the beginning of this year we had agreed tax losses of £1.5m and about £1m of unused capital allowances. The size and location of these losses and allowances will be insufficient to offset all the large gains at Stoneywood after indexation and some tax will almost certainly become payable shortly. If the St Magnus sale proceeds the tax charge, if any, will be small due to its high indexed figure and the substantial capital allowances available. Conclusion World economic conditions will be poor with recessions in the USA, parts of the Eurozone and Japan but the USA recession will not be extended. In the UK conditions will deteriorate and growth is likely to be slower than even recent forecasts but an overall recession is unlikely given monetary expansion, low commodity prices, low inflation and prospective increased Government expenditure. In Scotland conditions will be poorer than the UK average but the service based Edinburgh economy, benefiting from the 'capital' and ' Parliament' effects, should at least equal UK performance. Due to steady inflation returns from cash and fixed interest bonds are likely to be poor. The spectacular returns enjoyed by equities during the 1990's were largely due to falling inflation and to exaggerated projections of future growth, and similar future returns are most unlikely. In contrast property, still recovering from a long bear market, offers good returns in certain sectors although the previous security provided by traditional location and limited obsolescence no longer always applies. The housing market in Edinburgh offers a unique opportunity. The group's investments are now maturing and providing excellent returns and a previously unavailable flexibility for the group. We intend to concentrate on existing development opportunities, the Edinburgh housing market, high yielding secondary investments and opportunistic investments including corporate acquisitions. These investments should earn high returns, sufficient cash for reinvestment and dividend growth and an increasing NAV. Consolidated profit and loss account for the year ended 30 June 2001 2001 2000 (audited) (audited) £ £ Income - continuing operations Rents and service charges 2,668,877 3,346,150 Trading Property sales - 1,790,799 Other trading sales 397,999 136,871 _______ _______ 3,066,876 5,273,820 Operating costs Property rental outgoings (539,756) (847,343) Cost of trading properties sold - (1,405,183) Cost of other sales (398,042) (134,197) Administrative expenses (863,896) (718,421) _______ _______ (1,801,694) (3,105,144) _______ _______ Operating profit 1,265,182 2,168,676 Profit on disposal of investment property - 126,346 Gain on sale of investments 24,116 - Interest receivable 62,153 56,347 Interest payable (1,263,404) (1,212,563) _______ _______ Profit on ordinary activities before taxation 88,047 1,138,806 Taxation - - _______ _______ Profit for the financial year 88,047 1,138,806 Dividends 60,089 61,147 _______ _______ Retained profit for the financial year 27,958 1,077,659 Earnings per ordinary share 0.72p 9.27p Diluted earnings per ordinary share 1.79p 8.85p Profit for the financial year is retained as follows: In holding company 686,512 862,321 In subsidiaries (658,554) 215,338 _______ _______ 27,958 1,077,659 All activities of the group are ongoing. Statement of total recognised gains and losses for the year ended 30 June 2001 2001 2000 (audited) (audited) £ £ Profit for the financial year 88,047 1,138,806 Unrealised surplus on revaluation of properties 525,454 4,192,202 _______ _______ Total gains recognised since the last annual 613,501 5,331,008 report Note of historical cost profits and losses for the year ended 30 June 2001 2001 2000 (audited) (audited) £ £ Reported profit on ordinary activities before 88,047 1,138,806 taxation Realised deficit on previously revalued property - (99,844) ______ ______ Historical cost profit on ordinary activities before 88,047 1,138,962 taxation Historical cost profit for the year retained after 27,958 1,077,659 taxation Consolidated balance sheet at 30 June 2001 2001 2000 (audited) (audited) £ £ £ £ Fixed assets Tangible assets: Investment properties 32,274,454 30,626,397 Other assets 159,919 192,777 __________ __________ 32,434,373 30,819,174 Investments 20 34,360 __________ __________ 32,434,393 30,853,534 Current assets Debtors 749,066 907,960 Cash at bank and in hand 1,369,614 2,037,563 _________ 2,118,680 2,945,523 Creditors: amounts falling due within one year (15,377,944) (10,368,681) _________ Net current liabilities (13,259,264) (7,423,158) __________ 19,175,129 23,430,376 (2,515,905) (7,178,720) Creditors: amounts falling due after more than one year __________ 16,659,224 16,251,656 Net assets __________ Capital and reserves 2,403,554 2,445,899 Called up share capital 2,530,753 2,530,753 Share premium account 54,345 12,000 Capital redemption reserve 7,091,568 6,566,114 Revaluation reserve 4,579,004 4,696,890 Profit and loss account __________ 16,659,224 16,251,656 __________ Shareholders' funds - equity Company balance sheet at 30 June 2001 2001 2000 (audited) (audited) £ £ £ £ Fixed assets Tangible assets: Investment properties 3,650,000 3,650,000 Equipment and vehicles 9,406 17,872 __________ __________ 3,659,406 3,667,872 Investments 13,404,932 13,572,372 __________ __________ 17,064,338 17,240,244 Current assets Debtors 10,801,030 11,026,747 Cash at bank and in hand 1,237,242 600,951 _________ _________ 12,038,272 11,627,698 Creditors: amounts falling due within one year (10,700,886) (10,164,728) _________ _________ Net current assets/ 1,337,386 1,462,970 (liabilities) _________ _________ Total assets less current liabilities 18,401,724 18,703,214 Creditors: amounts falling due after more than one year (1,742,500) (2,451,558) _________ _________ Net assets 16,659,224 16,251,656 Capital and reserves Called up share capital 2,403,554 2,445,899 Share premium account 2,530,753 2,530,753 Capital redemption reserve 54,345 12,000 Revaluation reserves Property 467,290 467,290 Investments 3,552,695 3,685,795 Profit and loss account 7,650,587 7,109,919 _________ _________ Shareholders' funds - 16,659,224 16,251,656 equity Consolidated cash flow statement for the year ended 30 June 2001 2001 2000 (audited) (audited) £ £ Net cash (outflow)/inflow from operating (535,720) 4,380,831 activities Returns on investments and servicing of (1,199,093) (1,166,704) finance Corporation tax - - Capital expenditure and financial investment (1,065,211) 868,882 Equity dividends paid (61,147) __________ __________ Cash (outflow)/inflow before management of liquid resources and financing (2,861,171) 4,083,009 Financing 2,343,275 (1,763,420) __________ __________ (Decrease)/increase in cash in period (517,896) 2,319,589 Reconciliation of net cash flow to movement in net debt £ (Decrease)/increase in cash in period (517,896) 2,319,589 Cash outflow from decrease in debt (2,489,119) 1,734,149 __________ _________ Movement in net debt in the period (3,007,015) 4,053,738 Net debt at the start of the period (12,573,283) (16,627,021) __________ _________ Net debt at the end of the period (15,580,298) (12,573,283) These financial statements were approved by the Board of Directors on 19 December 2001 and were signed on its behalf by: ID Lowe Director Notes:- 1. The above financial information represents an extract taken from the audited accounts for the year to 30 June 2001 and does not contain the full accounts within the meaning of Section 240 of the Companies Act 1985 (as amended). The full accounts for the year ended 30 June 2001 were reported on by the auditors and received an unqualified report and contained no statement under section 237 (2) of (3) of the Companies Act 1985 (as amended). Full accounts will be delivered to the Registrar of Companies. 2. All activities of the group are ongoing. The board recommends the payment of a 0.5p per share final dividend (2000 : 0.5p), which will be payable, subject to shareholders approval, on 22 January 2002 to all shareholders on the register on 4 January 2002. 3. Earnings per ordinary share The calculation of earnings per ordinary share is based on the reported profit of £88,087 (2000 : £1,138,806) and on the weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue in the year, as detailed below. The calculation of diluted earnings per ordinary share is calculated adjusting profit for the period in respect of interest on loan stock deemed to have been converted. The weighted average number of shares has been adjusted for deemed conversion of loan stock and deemed exercise of share options outstanding. 2001 2000 Weighted average no. of ordinary shares in issue during 12,204,577 12,279,076 year - undilute Weighted average of ordinary shares in issue during 14,776,194 14,850,694 year - fully diluted 4. Copies of the Annual Report and Accounts are being posted to shareholders on 24 December 2001 and will be available free of charge for one month from the Company's head office, 61 North Castle Street, Edinburgh, EH2 3LJ. END
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