Final Results
ADVANCE FOCUS FUND LIMITED (formerly Progressive European Alternative
Portfolio Limited)
Preliminary announcement of results for the year ended 30 September
2005
CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT
The year to 30 September 2005 was one of transition for our Company.
Proposals to amend the investment objective, change the management
arrangements, change the name of the Company and raise fresh capital
were approved by shareholders on 21 April 2005. The hedge fund
portfolio was sold and the proceeds progressively invested into a
focused portfolio of listed UK companies.
The UK equity market moved ahead strongly in the period immediately
following the change of remit and the fund underperformed while the
portfolio was being established from cash.
The net asset value increased by 8.5% over the year to reach 111.97
pence. At the time of the change of the Company's investment
objective the net asset value per share was 110.67 pence and at the
year end the net asset value had risen by 1.2% from this initial
level. The share price finished September 2005 at 112 pence
(mid-market), 13.1% up on the year, 1.8% higher than the share price
at the time of the implementation of the proposals detailed above and
marginally higher than the placing price of the new shares issued at
that time. The last reported net asset value was 116.97p as at 9
December 2005 showing encouraging progress.
We have entered the Company's new financial year with a very
different investment strategy from previously, having moved from
being a fund of hedge funds to being a fund invested in special
equity situations. The Manager's report describes the new portfolio
in some detail.
We stated at the time of the reconstruction that we intended to
establish a sustainable dividend policy. Income generated over the
second half of the year was insufficient to eliminate completely the
brought forward revenue losses and therefore there will be no
dividend this year. It should be possible to pay a dividend in the
forthcoming year.
For future financial years, accounting standards will require the
Company to value its portfolio investments at bid price rather than
the present basis of mid market. This will result in a drop in the
reported net asset value. The Company will calculate and publish its
net asset values on a bid price basis with effect from 31 December
2005.
The Board remains committed to keeping the discount under control and
since the end of the financial year 1,718,042 shares, representing
6.4% of the shares then in issue, have been repurchased at a 3%
discount. These shares have been cancelled. The Board is seeking
shareholder approval to renew the authority to repurchase shares and
we recommend that you vote in favour. We are hoping to be able to
expand the fund on the back of improved performance.
I regret to inform you that due to other commitments Julie Dent has
given notice of her intention to stand down as a director of the
Company at the forthcoming Annual General Meeting. Your Board would
like to thank Julie for her valuable contribution to the Company
since its launch.
The Annual General Meeting of the Company will be held on 24 January
2006 at 10:00 am at 1 Le Marchant Street, St. Peter Port, Guernsey.
Christopher Clark
15 December 2005
MANAGER'S REPORT
The UK market hit a low on 28 April, the day after we started to
manage the fund, and then rose almost in a straight line until the
end of the period and the timing of the establishment of the
portfolio meant that the fund underperformed for several months. We
have a portfolio of stocks that we believe will deliver
outperformance of the FTSE All-Share Total Return Index over the
medium term but very little to show for our efforts so far.
Once we have acquired a position in a stock we want our shareholders
to understand why we have bought it. All major changes to the
portfolio will be disclosed in our monthly newsletters. What follows
is a list of our holdings and the rationale for their presence in the
portfolio.
London Merchant Securities
The attraction of London Merchant Securities is the potential it has
within its portfolio of development properties and the latent value
within its venture capital portfolio. In particular, we think its
largest venture capital holding, Energy Cranes International, should
be benefiting from the strength of the oil industry and we see
considerable value in LMS's planned development of land in Greenwich.
UK Coal
UK Coal's mining business is in decline but our potential upside lies
in the value of its considerable land bank (and to a lesser extent
the possibility that it will get planning permission to extract coal
from some of its open-cast sites). There was a flurry of excitement
in the stock when it announced it was in talks with Alchemy Partners
and others. These discussions have been terminated since our year
end. We had not anticipated a bid for the company emerging that
quickly but think this is our likely exit route.
Brewin Dolphin
Brewin Dolphin is one of the UK's largest private client investment
managers. We believe this is a long-term growth area. There is some
ongoing consolidation within the industry and we think there is a
chance that Brewin will participate in this.
Umbro
Umbro is a football focused, branded clothing and footwear business.
It holds the licence for replica England kit and should do well next
year now that England has qualified for the World Cup (though we were
worried for a while). It did have the contract for replica kit for
Chelsea FC but this contract was terminated in January this year.
Umbro got a substantial compensation payment which will eliminate the
company's debts. The real attraction though is in the growing value
of the Umbro brand. The company is working with leading designers, is
expanding in the US and has interesting businesses in some emerging
markets. It has just acquired a stake in its Chinese licensee.
Hiscox
Hiscox is one of two Lloyds underwriters that we hold. It seems to
have weathered the US hurricane season relatively well. The disasters
will lead to substantially higher rates next year. Hiscox is using
its surplus capital to buy-out the minorities in its Lloyds syndicate
which will give it more flexibility in the way it manages this
operation. It is also growing its non-Lloyds business. Since the year
end it has announced that it will raise fresh capital via a rights
issue to fund the development of a Bermudan reinsurance operation.
This has been well received by the market.
Bradford & Bingley
Bradford & Bingley has transformed itself from an also-ran building
society into a specialist lender to the buy-to-let and non-standard
mortgage market. We acknowledge the downward trend in house prices
but believe the buy-to-let market will be more resilient than many
fear. B&B make the point that relative to first time buyers (the
focus for mortgage lending by most of their competitors) their
customers are more affluent, more financially astute and they are
long-term savers. B&B lends them a lower proportion of the purchase
price at premium interest rates and insists on rental income covering
the mortgage interest by at least 1.3x. The introduction of Basle II
(new capital adequacy rules for banks based on a risk-weighting
system) will make mortgages attractive assets for banks and may
result in a bid for the company.
Liontrust Asset Management
After a spell of poor performance, Liontrust has been suffering as
investors, chiefly institutions such as pension funds, have taken
money away from the group. The company is sitting on a large cash
pile and last year it was rumoured that this would be used to help
finance an MBO of the company. We have talked to the management and
believe that it may be used instead to attract new investment
management talent to the company, diversifying the revenue stream and
thereby improving the quality of its earnings. Others have also
commented that the company is a potential bid target.
Nestor Healthcare
This has been one of our more disappointing investments since we
started to build our holding. The company has suffered from the
constantly moving goalposts in the National Health Service. It wasted
a lot of money building two national call centres that it intended
would handle out-of-hours provision of GP services in the event the
contracts to manage this service were awarded on a regional basis.
Another part of its business was in the provision of staff - doctors
and nurses - to the NHS. The government established an NHS run
competitor which inevitably took away most of the business despite
offering a poorer service. We think that the management ought to be
able to stabilise and grow revenues and profits and then the company
will be re-rated.
Kensington
Kensington, like Bradford & Bingley, lends to non-standard borrowers
at higher margin than the High Street banks. It then aims to sell on
every loan it makes, mitigating its risk and lowering its funding
cost. Its customers fail the banks' automated credit scoring
programmes as they have county court judgements (CCJs), are
self-employed or have been bankrupt. They control their risk by
insisting customers put down sizeable deposits on the houses they
buy. The business is growing fast this year as they have started
selling through other credit brokers (borrowers who are better suited
to re-mortgaging their home rather than taking out a second or third
charge on it are referred to Kensington). Unsurprisingly, arrears are
rising and they have provided against some mortgage business written
in late 2003 at the bottom of the interest rate cycle. We think the
company will be re-rated if it can demonstrate that its business
model is resilient in a housing market downturn; it may then also be
a bid target.
Compass
This is a company that falls squarely into our "unloved" category of
potential investments. The attraction of Compass for us is that it
trades at a substantial discount to its peer group and it operates in
a growing and fragmented market. Gearing is relatively high but the
disposal of its travel related businesses will help to address this.
The Chief Executive has announced he will go, having presided over a
series of profit warnings this may be seen as a positive development.
Other senior executives have been dismissed after allegations of
improper conduct related to UN contracts. We are looking for an
influx of new management to revitalise the company or a take-over
approach from one of its competitors or a private equity fund.
Alexon
Retailers are unpopular at the moment as UK consumer spending is in
decline. We are avoiding those with financial gearing. Alexon has
cash on the balance sheet and was buying in its shares. Trading has
been and probably will be lacklustre for a while but this is more
than reflected in the rating. The company is routinely cited as a
potential MBO candidate.
Cattles
Cattles, like Kensington, lends to the borrowers the banks won't
touch. Like Kensington its lending policies and interest rates
reflect the quality of the loan portfolio. Cattles has migrated its
business away from its original door-to-door home collected credit
business and therefore is little affected by the ongoing OFT
investigation into this market. Its rating implies bad debts will
soar. There has been little evidence that this will be the case so
far.
Woolworths
Woolworths was bid for by Apax Partners at 58.2 pence per share
earlier this year. Apax pulled out and the shares fell sharply,
bottoming out close to 30p. Poor trading has undermined confidence in
the stock but the group has some valuable businesses, namely its
Entertainment UK media wholesaling business and a 40% stake in the
2entertain media publishing joint venture with the BBC. We think the
management should be exploring ways of enhancing shareholder value in
addition to their efforts to improve trading.
Communisis
Communisis is a UK and European printing business. It is trying to
move away from high volume, low margin business and instead sign up
long-term contracts with major customers. It handles all of Barclays
printing requirements and has just won a similar contract with HSBC.
In October it announced it was in talks with potential bidders but a
sale of shares by a non-Board director spooked the market.
Crest Nicholson
All the house builders look cheap but with the housing market clearly
slowing we thought there was little chance of them being re-rated in
the short-term. We chose to make an investment in Crest as we see it
as a bid target. Heron approached Crest earlier this year but pulled
out in May after Crest refused to open its books. Heron could bid
again but we think its sizeable stake would be much more valuable to
another house builder who could extract greater synergy from a deal.
Since the year end Persimmon has bid for Westbury.
Games Workshop
Games Workshop had a remarkable run on the back of the success of the
Lord of the Rings films which stimulated interest in its products.
Without the driver of the publicity surrounding the release of the
films, sales have been falling back. The market is pricing Games
Workshop as though this sales decline would eat into its core
business. We think though that its core customer base will not desert
the company and there are still good growth opportunities; they are
expanding into Japan for the first time for instance.
BRIT Insurance
BRIT was hit harder than Hiscox by the hurricane season. Its balance
sheet is robust however and under geared. A capital reconstruction in
a few months time is likely. BRIT has also announced that it is
committed to its dividend policy; it is one of the highest yielding
stocks in the FTSE All-Share Index. As we highlighted with Hiscox,
rates are likely to be strong next year and BRIT should benefit.
Virgin Mobile
Virgin Mobile does not own its network but rents spare capacity from
T Mobile in the UK. It has a large customer base, attracted by the
Virgin brand. It is moving into the monthly contract market; most of
its customers are Pay-as-you-go. It recently announced that it would
expand into France in conjunction with Carphone Warehouse and using
Orange as the network provider. We think this is a growth stock and a
bid target and we were not surprised to see a jump in its share price
following the Telefonica bid for MMO2. The share price can be
volatile as the free float is fairly small. On 5 December, NTL Inc.
confirmed an approach to Virgin Mobile regarding a potential offer to
combine the two companies.
Stanley Leisure
Stanley is the highest rated stock we own. The sale of its betting
shop operation leaves a UK casino business with a very healthy
balance sheet. The relaxation of gaming legislation gives them the
opportunity to improve the profitability of their existing estate and
expand into new areas. Genting of Malaysia already has a sizeable
stake in the business and will support Stanley as it bids for new
casino licences. Footfall has surprised on the upside since customers
have been able to play in the casinos without applying for membership
24 hours beforehand.
Tribune UK Index
Advance UK, another company managed by us, targeted Baring Tribune in
1997 and suggested unitising the trust. Its Board responded by
splitting it into a UK index tracking pool (Tribune UK Index) and a
global generalist pool. This did not permanently narrow the discount
and we built up a substantial holding in the trust with Advance Focus
buying the index shares between a 7% and 8% discount. The Board have
said they will separate the index pool and keep its discount below
4%.
Since the year end the UK market has continued its relentless march
upwards, driven by high levels of liquidity and bid speculation and
we have outperformed the benchmark in that period. Commentators are
divided as to the outlook for 2006. There is some indication that the
housing market is picking up again, the oil price has been falling,
inflation remains subdued and corporate balance sheets are strong.
This ought to bode well for the UK market but our investment style is
dedicated towards making money regardless of wider market moves.
Progressive European Markets Limited
15 December 2005
STATEMENT OF TOTAL RETURN
For the year ended 30 September 2005
2005 2004
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Gains / (losses) on
investments
- realised - 3,078 3,078 - 64 64
- unrealised - (1,240) (1,240) - 804 804
Capital (losses)/gains on currency - (121) (121) - 157 157
movements
Net gains - 1,717 1,717 - 1,025 1,025
Income 509 - 509 22 - 22
Investment management fee (128) (192) (320) - (209) (209)
Other expenses (203) - (203) (200) - (200)
Return on ordinary activities before 178 1,525 1,703 (178) 816 638
finance costs and taxation
Interest payable and similar charges - - - (2) - (2)
Return on ordinary activities before 178 1,525 1,703 (180) 816 636
taxation
Taxation - - - - - -
Return on ordinary activities after 178 1,525 1,703 (180) 816 636
taxation
Dividends payable - - - - - -
Transfer to/(from) reserves 178 1,525 1,703 (180) 816 636
Return per Redeemable Preference Share 0.85p 7.32p 8.17p (1.10)p 5.01p 3.91p
BALANCE SHEET
At 30 September 2005
2005 2004
£'000 £'000
FIXED ASSETS
Investments 28,683 16,432
CURRENT ASSETS
Sales for future settlements 202 -
Amounts due from brokers - 589
Other debtors 139 13
Cash at bank and in hand 1,530 -
1,871 602
CREDITORS: AMOUNTS FALLING DUE WITHIN ONE YEAR
Purchases for future settlement (429) -
Accrued liabilities (54) (79)
Bank overdraft - (132)
(483) (211)
NET CURRENT ASSETS 1,388 391
TOTAL NET ASSETS 30,071 16,823
CAPITAL AND RESERVES
Share capital 269 163
Share premium account 19,052 7,614
Share purchase reserve 8,069 8,069
Realised capital reserve 2,569 (201)
Unrealised capital reserve 262 1,506
Revenue reserve (150) (328)
SHAREHOLDERS' FUNDS 30,071 16,823
Net assets per Redeemable Preference Share 111.97p 103.21p
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
For the year ended 30 September 2005
2005 2004
£'000 £'000
NET CASH OUTFLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES (18) (138)
SERVICING OF FINANCE
Interest paid on overdraft facility - (2)
FINANCIAL INVESTMENT
Payments to acquire fixed asset investments (53,172) (6,694)
Receipts on disposal of fixed asset investments 43,307 6,450
NET CASH OUTFLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES (9,865) (244)
NET CASH OUTFLOW BEFORE FINANCING (9,883) (384)
FINANCING
Issue of share capital (net of expenses) 11,545 -
NET CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING 11,545 -
INCREASE/(DECREASE) IN CASH 1,662 (384)
NOTES
The revenue column of the Statement of Total Return is the profit and
loss account of the Company.
The Company is a closed-ended investment company incorporated and
resident in Guernsey.
This report has been prepared in accordance with applicable United
Kingdom accounting standards and with the Statement of Recommended
Practice 'Financial Statements of Investment Trust Companies
("SORP"). The accounts have been prepared in accordance with the
SORP as it is considered best practice. The Company is not an
investment trust and as an overseas company does not meet all the
criteria set out in the SORP.
Revenue and capital returns per share are stated by reference to the
weighted average of 20,840,309 (2004: 16,300,000) Redeemable
Preference Shares in issue during the year. Net assets per share are
stated by reference to 26,855,495 (2004: 16,300,000) Redeemable
Preference Shares in issue as at the balance sheet date.
These financial statements are not the Company's statutory accounts.
The annual report will be sent to shareholders and copies will be
made available to the public at the registered office of the Company
and at the address of the UK Administration Agent.
The Company was incorporated on 9 July 2002. Business operations
commenced on 19 December 2002.
SECRETARY, ADMINISTRATOR & REGISTERED OFFICE
Legis Corporate Services Limited
1 Le Marchant Street
St Peter Port
Guernsey
GY1 4HP
UK ADMINISTRATION AGENT
Cavendish Administration Limited
Crusader House
145-157 St John Street
London
EC1V 4RU
15 December 2005
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