Q3 2024 Net Asset Value and Trading Update

Foresight Solar Fund Limited

13 November 2024

 

13 November 2024

Foresight Solar Fund Limited

(the "Company", "Foresight Solar" or "FSFL")

Q3 2024 Net Asset Value and Trading Update

Foresight Solar, the fund investing in solar and battery storage assets to build income and growth, announces that its unaudited net asset value (NAV) was £639.9 million at 30 September 2024 (30 June 2024: £656.8 million). This results in a NAV per Ordinary Share of 112.6 pence (30 June 2024: 114.9 pence).

Highlights

·    Lower power price forecasts and poor weather during the peak generating period were the two largest downside contributors to NAV in the third quarter.

·    Below-budget irradiation persisted from July to September. Strong operational availability, however, limited global production to 5.3% below budget for the period.

·    Foresight Solar continued its £50 million buyback programme, one of the largest relative to NAV in the sector, delivering cumulative 2.0pps of NAV accretion since repurchases began.

·    The Company remains on track to pay its 8.0pps target dividend for the year with cover of 1.4x driven by its power price hedging strategy.

Summary of key NAV drivers

Item	p/share movement
NAV on 30 June 2024	114.9p
Power price forecasts	-1.3p
Project actuals	-1.4p
Share buyback programme	+0.1p
Other movements	+0.3p
NAV on 30 September 2024	112.6p

Power price forecasts were lower in the UK, reflecting consultants' revised third quarter curves. The changes occurred primarily in the near and medium term, whereas assumptions post 2040 remained largely unchanged. Spain's forecast was marginally lower, whilst the picture in Australia was mixed. In aggregate, these moves resulted in a negative impact to NAV of 1.3 pence per share (pps).

Low irradiation across markets during a period of peak production led to generation below forecasts and a net asset value downside of 1.4pps.

Foresight Solar continued its share buyback programme, repurchasing a further 3.0 million shares during the third quarter and delivering an additional 0.1pps of NAV accretion to shareholders. FSFL has now deployed around £40 million of its £50 million allocation, resulting in a cumulative 2.0pps uplift to NAV since it began repurchases in May 2023.

Other movements, totalling a net upside impact of 0.3pps to NAV, included a small foreign exchange movement and a minor adjustment from rebalancing assumptions across the Australian portfolio to reflect current market conditions.

Trading update

Solar resource was 3.0% below budget across markets in the three months to 30 September 2024, leading to production 5.3% lower than expected. Overall, irradiation across geographies was 3.2% under expectation year-to-date and cumulative production for the global portfolio was 6.5% under budget for the year.

Gearing

The gross asset value (GAV) on 30 September 2024 was £1,065.5 million (30 June 2024: £1,085.2 million), with total outstanding debt of £425.6 million, which represented 39.9% of GAV (30 June 2024: £428.4 million and 39.4%) - comfortably within the 50% limit.

At 30 September 2024, the RCF balance was £84.5 million drawn (30 June 2024: £74.5 million), reflecting working capital requirements and pending cash receipts from the portfolio after the summer months. After post-period distributions from the projects, the revolving credit facility was repaid and the drawn balance is currently £75 million.

The directors continue to prioritise debt repayment and share buybacks, in accordance with the Company's capital allocation policy.

Australia divestment

The process to divest of the Australian operational solar and development-stage BESS portfolio continues. The Board expects to have more details in the first half of 2025 and will update shareholders accordingly.

For more information, follow Foresight Solar on LinkedIn or contact:

Foresight Group Matheus Fierro ([e-mail])	[phone]
Jefferies International Limited Gaudi Le Roux Harry Randall	[phone]
Singer Capital Markets Alaina Wong	[phone]
Sodali & Co Justin Griffiths Gilly Lock	[phone]

 

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