Net Asset Value(s)
Fabian Romania Property Fund Ltd
03 August 2007
3 August 2007
Fabian Romania Limited (FAB.LN)
Net asset value as at 30 June 2007
Highlights
• As of 30 June 2007, the Net Asset Value ('NAV') per share of the
Company as determined in accordance with its Articles of Association was €1.548
(at 31 March 2007: €1.390) an increase of 11.4 per cent. over the first quarter.
• Adjusting the current NAV for the estimated future development profits
of €0.37 per share indicates a potential future NAV ('Development Profit NAV' or
'DPNAV') of €1.92 per share.
• Executed two investments during the quarter committing a total of €24.9
million. The Company's share of the market valuations of these investments
(before deferred income tax liabilities) was €30.6 million at 30 June 2007
before deducting the outstanding non-recourse bank financing of €15.0 million.
On gross assets, this represents an uplift of 23 per cent. from the original
investment.
• Announced a further three investments committing a total of
approximately €22 million or around €15 million in equity post debt drawdown.
These investments are not included in the 30 June 2007 valuation.
• The five investments executed or announced are expected to require
around €21million (after refinancing) of equity from the net proceeds of the
December 2006 AIM fundraising of €38.1 million. As at 30 June 2007, the
Directors estimate the Company has approximately €17.0million left to invest
• Further yield convergence for the Company's fully let office buildings
to 7.0 and 7.1 per cent. as at 30 June 2007.
• In total, nine investments executed or committed, with 61,300 square
metres ('sqm') of lettable office space in Bucharest secured together with 443
residential apartments
• Post quarter end, fixed price construction contract agreed with Mivan
Kier for the Company's New Town residential scheme and sales commenced.
• The investment manager believes office market rents in Bucharest have
increased by approximately €2.0 sqm/month apparent by quarter end.
To the shareholders of Fabian Romania,
Fabian Romania Limited ('Fabian', 'Fabian Romania' or the 'Company'), the AIM
quoted dedicated Romanian real estate investor announces its NAV as at 30 June
2007 was €1.548 per share. This represents a rise of 11.4 per cent. from the
preceding first quarter NAV of €1.390 per share. For the year to date, the NAV
of the company has risen 14.2 per cent. per cent from €1.356 per share as at 31
December 2006.
The published NAV was calculated according to the Company's Articles of
Association and the results is summarised below:
30 June 2006 30 June 2006 30 June 2006
Market Value Bank (debt) Net Worth Original Investment
€m €m €m €m
Cascades 15.1 (9.4) 5.7 12.2
Banu 15.6 (9.1) 6.5 12.3
New Town * (^) 15.8 (1.9) 13.9 5.8
Lakeview * 8.3 (5.3) 3.0 5.4
Cubic Centre 5.0 - 5.0 5.0
Baneasa Business Centre 27.6 (13.2) 14.4 23.9
Timisoara * 3.0 (1.8) 1.2 1.0
Net Cash 29.4
Other assets/(liabilities) ** (0.4)
Sub-total 90.4 (40.8) 78.7 65.5
Shares (#)
50,831,130
NAVPS (€)
1.548
* represents Fabian's share of the development, and in the case of Lakeview,
after post-acquisition debt financing drawdown
** includes deposits on Evocenter & Romana plus deferred tax liabilities added
back
(^) includes development WIP financed by bank debt
Future Development Profit
Under the Red Book methodology of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors,
residual land valuations for development projects provided to Companies such as
Fabian Romania, exclude the net present value of future development profits. In
order to provide transparency to investors as to the potential level of such
future development profits that may accrue to the Company, DTZ Echinox ('DTZ')
have been asked to provide estimates of these development profits. Shareholders
may then choose to discount these profits to estimate their net present value in
today's terms based on current market conditions. The forecast development
profit figures are stated gross and do not include all costs that may be
incurred by Fabian over the course of the projects (in particular transaction
fees and any carried interest payable to the investment manager). The implied
share of future development profit figures for the New Town, Lakeview and
Timisoara schemes based on the DTZ estimates are highlighted in the table below.
Project Implied Fabian share of future development profit Final year of
from DTZ estimates (€m) development *
New Town 8.8 2009
Lakeview 6.0 2009
Timisoara 4.2 2010
NAV contribution (€m) 19.0
NAVPS contribution (€) 0.37
* Fabian Romania estimates
Adding these forecast development profits of €19.0m or €0.37 per share to the
NAV produces what the Directors have called the DPNAV of €1.92 per share.
Acquisitions
After a period of intensive due diligence on a wide variety of potential
investments in the first quarter of 2007, the Company began April with only the
four core investments acquired in 2006. The second quarter has been a highly
active period in due diligence, acquisitions, negotiating leasing contracts,
publishing the 2006 annual reports and accounts and arranging financing. Fabian
announced and completed the acquisition of both the Baneasa Business Centre and
a 50 per cent. stake in a residential land plot in the City of Timisoara. The
Company also announced that it had entered into agreements to: acquire a plot of
land in central Bucharest for a turn-key office building, purchase the Evocentre
office building in North Bucharest and to forward purchase the Cubic Centre
office building in the Pipera district of Bucharest once completed. The major
highlights for the Company during the period are as follows.
The Baneasa Business Centre
On 18 June 2007, the Company was pleased to announce that it had entered into an
agreement to purchase the Baneasa Business Centre office building from the
Austrian developer Immoconsult Leasinggesellschaft m.b.H. The transaction value
was €23.9 million. As at 30 June 2007, the building was valued by DTZ at €27.6
million. This represents a satisfactory gain of 15 per cent. over the purchase
price agreed in late 2006.
The building is a Class A office building comprising 9,600 sqm of net lettable
area. It is located in the rapidly emerging office district of North Bucharest.
The building hosts a range of multinational tenants including Wrigley, Colgate,
Fresenius, Cargill and Volksbank thereby meeting the targeted tenant profile of
the Company. The average lease length is around three years with variety of
reversionary leases at rents between €12 per sqm /month to €16 per sqm/month.
The acquisition gives the Company further exposure to a high quality office
building located in the heart of the emerging business district of North
Bucharest. The investment manager believes there is rising demand for space by
both existing multinational tenants seeking to expand and new multinational
tenants entering Romania. The investment manager is confident that as leases
come up for renewal, upward revisions in rents per square metre per month are
achievable.
The gain in the value of the property of some €3.7 million can be explained by
two factors. Firstly, the purchase yield used for the acquisition with
Immoconsult was 7.74 per cent. negotiated in the second half of last year. DTZ
used an up to date market yield of 7.1 per cent. as at 30 June 2007. On rents of
€1.85 million per annum at the time the commercial terms with Immoconsult were
first agreed, yield convergence from 7.74 per cent to 7.1 per cent has equated
to a gain of some €2.2 million. Secondly, since the commercial terms were
agreed, rents benefited from indexation to Eurozone inflation as from 1 January
2007. The investment manager was able to secure for the Company's benefit, the
value of this indexation as well as other rental increases. Annualised rental
income as at 30 June 2007 amounted to €1.96 million per annum a gain of
€110,000. Capitalised, this increase in rents delivered a further €1.5 million
of value.
Since the quarter end, the Company has drawn down on a debt facility with
Investkredit to increase total borrowings secured against Baneasa to almost
€19.7 million. This has resulted in a net equity in the company of approximately
€4.2 million pre revaluation. With a gain of €3.7 million since acquisition, the
Company will have achieved a highly satisfactory pro forma return on equity
invested of 88 per cent.
Timisoara
On 25 June 2007, the Company purchased a 50 per cent interest in a residential
development site to build 250 apartments in Timisoara for €4.7 million. The
acquisition is structured through a development company that owns a 1.1 hectare
site in north Timisoara. The equity consideration amounts to approximately
€1million. The land has urban zoning approval to build over 250 apartments
(subject to building permits) comprising over 30,000 sqm of residential
development space. Coltex, the co-shareholder holding the other 50 per cent.
interest, has entered into a partnership agreement with Fabian. Coltex will also
be the development manager and has a known track record, having developed and
sold the successful Banu Antonache office building to the Company in late 2005.
The acquisition is the Company's first purchase outside Bucharest. It gives
Fabian further exposure to the rising residential sector as well as to
Timisoara. The City is Romania's third largest city with a population of over
300,000 and is located in the West close to the Hungarian border. The area is
the focus of a large amount of foreign direct investment in manufacturing
industry, particularly from German and Italian companies. The investment manager
believes the city has attractive characteristics for supply of modern
residential apartments. The purchase price for the land including acquisition
expenses was €4.7 million. This equates to around €427 per square metre for the
land and €157 per built square metre over ground, assuming 30,000 sqm. The
development company has already secured and fully drawdown on a land finance
facility from Banca Romanesca for €3.6 million. Including near term working
capital needs, this leaves an initial net equity requirement of approximately €1
million for Fabian.
DTZ forecast that the Timisoara project will have total development profits of
€10.1 million on a development value in excess of €50 million and after total
costs, excluding land, of approximately €34 million. The land valuation as at 30
June 2007 is €5.9 million of which 50 per cent. is owned by Fabian. This
represents a gain ex acquisition costs of some €1.2m or 26 per cent.. The
Company forecasts the development to be completed by the end of 2010.
Cubic Centre
On 30 April 2007, the Company announced that it had entered into an agreement to
purchase at practical completion the Cubic Centre office building in the Pipera
district of North Bucharest. The building will be a Class A office building with
a gross area of approximately 44,000 square metres, located in north Bucharest.
The building is being developed by Kendama, an experienced local developer in
Romania. Construction has commenced and completion is anticipated in the second
quarter of 2009. Upon completion, the building will provide a net lettable
office area of 26,000 sqm over 12 floors, together with 533 car spaces. The
building is located in a prominent location in the Pipera district and is likely
to attract international tenants seeking Class A office space.
The Company will pay a first instalment of €12.25 million upon the developer
securing full construction finance and building consent. Of the €12.25 million,
€5 million has already been paid in the form of a secured loan. At practical
completion of the building by the developer, the Company will pay the final
instalment based upon a forward purchase yield of 7.4 per cent. - 7.8 per cent.
applied to rents achieved. Based upon current rental estimates, the total value
of the transaction is estimated to be approximately of €60 million. The total
equity requirement for the Company is estimated to be €12 million.
The agreement to forward purchase the Cubic Centre office building gives the
Company exposure to an Class A office building in the Pipera district of the
Bucharest secured at an attractive yield. Kendama is responsible for finding
tenants, managing the general contractor and financing the project thereby
ensuring the Company is not taking development risk. The transaction is expected
to close during the third quarter of 2007.
Evocentre
On 4 June 2007, the Company announced that it had reached agreement to purchase
the Evocenter office building in the Pipera / Voluntari district of Bucharest
for a forecast yield of 9 per cent. The Company had initially proposed to
purchase the building empty, thereby taking the letting risk. However, during
the due diligence process, the Adama Group from Israel, the developer, signed a
lease taking half of the available space. The building will be completed in
summer 2007 to a Class A standard and comprises 3,000 sqm of net lettable area,
18 covered car parking spaces and ancillary parking close by. The Company will
meet the consideration of €4.9 million from its own resources. Debt drawdown is
anticipated to be during the third quarter 2007 which will reduce the ongoing
equity requirement to around €1 million.
Although the transaction size, involving around €1.0m of equity, would normally
be too small for Fabian Romania, we decided to pursue the acquisition for the
Company due to the prospective yield on offer. As with the Banu Antonache
acquisition, the Company is taking letting risk. This enables the Company to
purchase modern buildings at a more attractive price as a compensation for the
risk. However, as current vacancy rates in the City are sub 3 per cent., the
letting risk as such is much reduced. In this instance, the letting risk has
been reduced further by the decision of Adama to rent half the space. The
transaction is expected to close during the third quarter.
Romana
On 14 June 2007, the Company announced the acquisition of the Romana office
project. This will be the Fund's sixth office building or scheme in Bucharest.
The Romana office building will be built for Fabian Romania by Hil C Construct
on a centrally located site on Dacia Boulevard. The building will be built to
Class A specifications with a gross area of approximately 3,000 sqm. The project
management will be undertaken by Globus, an experienced local developer in
Romania. Construction is due to commence in the fourth quarter 2007 with
completion anticipated in the third quarter of 2009. Upon completion, the
building will provide a net lettable office area of around 2,480 sqm over 7
floors, together with 40 car parking spaces. The building is in a prominent
position with views over Plaza Romana and is likely to attract international
tenants seeking Class A office space. The Company will pay the purchase price of
€7.6 million to Hil in 3 instalments; a first instalment of €2.0 million will be
made for the company to acquire ownership of the land; a second instalment for
construction costs of approximately €3.0 million; and a final payment upon
practical completion of €2.6 million. Including non developer related costs, the
total purchase price is forecast to be €8.0 million. On assumed office rents of
€19 sqm/month, the purchase price and total development costs equate to a yield
of 8.9%. Fabian Romania's equity requirement is expected to be €2 million with
debt finance to fund the balance. Completion is conditional on the attainment of
the final building permit by the developer which is currently expected at the
end of August 2007.
New Town
During the quarter, much time was committed to working with the Company's joint
venture partner, Mivan Ltd, to secure a fixed price contract with Mivan Kier Ltd
for the construction of the New Town residential scheme. New Town is a scheme of
72,000 sqm above ground involving the constructing of over 635 apartments
targeted at Bucharest's emerging middle class. The scheme was granted final
building consent at the start of the quarter. Since the quarter end, the Company
announced that its joint venture development company, Phoenix Park SRL, has
agreed a fixed price build contract with Mivan Kier.
In tandem with the discussions with Mivan Kier, the finishing touches were
being put in place with Mivan for the sales launch. A sales and marketing suite
was created by Mivan in central Bucharest and a full launch started after the
quarter end. To date, the first release of 119 apartments with parking from the
first of two phases have been offered for sale. City wide newspaper and radio
advertising has been taken to support the launch and sales are going well.
DTZ forecast the project to have a development value in excess of €122 million
and total costs, excluding land, of approaching €70 million. The land valuation
as at 30 June 2007 is €27.9 million of which 50 per cent. is owned by Fabian.
DTZ's forecast imply future development profits amounting to €8.8 million or
some €0.17 per share. The Company currently forecasts project completion to be
achieved by the end of 2009.
Lake View
During the quarter, the Company's development partner on the Lake View office
scheme in North Bucharest, AIG/Lincoln, has continued to drive forward the
development. The PUD planning consent has been achieved and the application for
building consent is in the process of being lodged with the city authorities.
This consent is expected over the summer with building work forecast to commence
soon after. In order to pre-let the building, Colliers were appointed during the
quarter to exclusively represent the joint venture and a number of tenants have
been contacted with a view to pre-lets. The building is expected to be delivered
in the third quarter of 2009.
For the purposes of calculating the future development profits to the Company
from the Lakeview scheme, the Company's directors have used the calculation
conducted by DTZ as at 30 September 2006 for the purposes of the AIM listing.
DTZ forecast the project to have a development value of around €58 million and
total costs, excluding land, of approximately €30 million. The Company's share
of the land valuation within the NAV remains the same as at 31 December 2006 of
some €8.3 million. DTZ's forecast imply future development profits amounts to a
share of €6 million or some €0.12 per share.
The Economy
Romania continued to prosper during the quarter with 2007 GDP growth now
expected to be 6.5 per cent according to ING Bank and 6.3 per cent. in 2008.
This continues the trend for the country to be one of the fastest growing
economies in Europe. High real interest rates and a strengthening currency
against the Euro have driven down inflation from to an annualised rate of 4.9
per cent. on 31 December 2006 to 3.8 per cent. as at June 2007. On the back of
falling inflation, the NBR has cut interest rates to 7 per cent. where they are
forecast to remain for the rest of the year. The fiscal deficit is expected by
ING Bank to remain within the Maastricht criteria at -2.8 per cent. of GDP.
Mortgage rates in both local currency and in Euros have continued to fall with
introductory rates in Euros as low as 5.75 per cent. thereby providing further
support for the residential market.
The Property Market
The main trend to emerge during the second quarter has been a marked upturn in
office rents over the first half of the year. According to office agents, prime
rents per square metre in the City centre have risen to €19-21 sqm/month from
€17-19 sqm/month at the end of 2006. The upward rise in rents has been driven by
continuing low vacancy rates of sub 3 per cent. as well as continued strong
foreign direct investment by new multinationals to Romania and by the expansion
of existing multinationals. The investment manager has experienced this directly
with the majority of tenants in the Baneasa Business Centre office building
seeking additional space.
In terms of new supply of office space according to DTZ estimates, some 115,000
sqm of modern Class A was delivered in 2006 somewhat lower than the 180,000 sqm
of space that was forecast during the period. The shortfall was caused by
problems over land title, permitting and other issues that impacted the amount
of announced space that was actually developed. The investment manager believes
that current forecasts in the second quarter of 300,000 sqm of new Class A space
to be delivered to the market by the year end of 2007 remain optimistic.
Regardless, total modern stock in Bucharest will remain substantially below
commensurate levels in Warsaw, Prague and Budapest.
The office sub sector of the Romanian property market remained as the main focus
of Fabian and other investors' interest during the quarter. Yields have
continued to fall to close to 6.25 per cent. by the quarter end for prime
buildings. The investment manager anticipates that yields will fall further in
the second half of the year driven by strong interest upon the part of foreign
investment funds. Forward purchase yields are around 7.25 - 8.00 per cent.
depending on the location.
In retail, similar trends are apparent as in the office market. Strong growth in
retail sales and real incomes is driving the demand for retail space by both
high street retailers and by hypermarkets in both Bucharest and the regional
cities. Nearly all cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants have at least one
shopping centre project planned. Both the Real group and the Spar chain entered
Romania for the first time in 2006 and along with Auchan and Carrefour, continue
to seek new hypermarket locations outside Bucharest from developers. Asking
yields for investment transactions continue to fall to sub 7 per cent.. For
forward purchases, yields are approximately 7.25 per cent.
The residential sector continues to perform well on the back of rising real
incomes, increased mortgage volumes and falling interest rates. Residential
sales prices per square metre continue to rise. Reliable statistics are hard to
come by but prices per square metre appear to be rising in double digits. Whilst
a number of new residential schemes have been announced, particularly by Spanish
developers, it takes time to convert such schemes from the drawing board to the
construction stage. In the meantime, the shortage of supply of new apartments
for sale has meant continued inflation for old style Communist apartments. Sale
prices of up to €900 per sqm are reported to have been achieved compared to
€1,250 per sqm for new build in comparable parts of Bucharest. The investment
manager believes this gap to be artificially low.
Other activity and outlook
As at 30 June 2007, approximately €21 million of equity (after refinancing) from
the €38.1 million of net proceeds from the AIM listing has been earmarked for
investment in the five transactions either executed or announced in the quarter.
This leaves approximately €17 million of equity to commit to further
investments.
Since the publication of the investment manager's report to the 2006 reports and
accounts, the conditions for office co-investment developments continue to
improve. The leasing market continues to favour the developer and though
visibility is difficult, the rental market appears well supported until at least
the middle of 2009. Even then, Bucharest will still have substantially less
Class A space than either Prague or Budapest in today's terms. The benefits to
the developer from rising rents and falling yields continue to more than offset
construction inflation.
As stated in the 2006 annual reports and accounts, the investment manager no
longer regards fully let offices at yields below 7 per cent. as attractive
either on an absolute basis or relative to the opportunities available in
Romania in other sub-sectors of the market or through co-development
opportunities. Exciting opportunities continue to be pursued through
participation in office co-investment developments and through the forward
purchase of office buildings for delivery over the next twelve months where the
taking of letting risk by the Company is compensated by attractive prices
In residential, the demand for new middle income housing has, if anything,
accelerated during the year to date, driven by the growth of real incomes. Sale
price inflation acts as a useful natural hedge against construction price
inflation. In addition, economic growth in the large regional cities means that
for the first time, households and first time buyers outside Bucharest can now
afford to purchase new build apartments. The investment manager is looking at a
number of opportunities in the regional cities to this end as well as a
continued focus on Bucharest.
In retail and logistics, yields for fully let buildings or for forward purchases
of buildings once let continue to offer attractive yields of between 7.25 - 8.00
per cent.. To date, the Company has not purchased any such assets. This is in
large part due to their scarcity value, their large unit price relative to the
size of Fabian Romania and legal title issues. However, the investment manager
is looking at a number of opportunities in both of these sub-sectors.
Economically, the country has continued to prosper since its accession to the
European Union. According to economists' forecasts, growth looks set to be above
6 per cent. again for the year and inflation to fall close to 4 per cent. by the
year end.
The investment manager regards the outlook for the Company, the Romanian
property market and Romania in general as attractive for remainder of the
current year.
Mark Holdsworth
Fabian Capital Limited
3 August 2007
Contacts:
Fabian Capital Limited
Mark Holdsworth Tel: +44 20 7499 9988
Shore Capital - Broker to Fabian
Dru Danford Tel: +44 20 7408 4090
Deloitte Corporate Finance - Nominated Adviser to Fabian
Jonathan Hinton / James Lewis Tel: +44 20 7936 3000
Notes to Editors
Fabian Romania Limited is an experienced and well-known investor in the
Bucharest and wider Romanian real estate market and is quoted on AIM. Fabian
seeks to generate attractive total returns for its shareholders through a
portfolio of income producing buildings, co-development projects with
experienced partners and land investments. Fabian receives investment advice
from Fabian Capital Limited, an independent investment management firm that
specialises in Romanian real estate investments advice. (Fabian Capital does not
carry out any regulated activities in the UK)
The directors of Fabian accept responsibility for the information contained in
this announcement. To the best of the knowledge and belief of the directors of
Fabian (who have taken all reasonable care to ensure that such is the case) the
information contained in this announcement is in accordance with the facts and
does not omit anything likely to affect the import of such information.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange