Net Asset Value(s)
Fabian Romania Limited
04 February 2008
4 February 2008
Fabian Romania Limited (FAB.LN)
Net asset value as at 31 December 2007
Highlights
• Fabian Romania Limited ("Fabian", "Fabian Romania" or the "Company"), is
an experienced and leading investor in the Bucharest and wider Romanian real
estate market and is quoted on AIM.
• Fabian seeks to generate attractive total returns for its shareholders
through a portfolio of income producing buildings, co-development projects
with experienced partners and land investments. Fabian receives investment
advice from Fabian Capital Limited, an independent investment management
firm that specialises in Romanian real estate investments advice. (Fabian
Capital does not carry out any regulated activities in the UK)
• As at 31 December 2007, the Net Asset Value ("NAV") per share of the
Company as determined in accordance with its Articles of Association was
€1.700 (at 30 September 2007: €1.607) an increase of 5.79 per cent. over the
third quarter and 25.37 per cent. for the full year (at 31 December 2006:
€1.356)
• Adjusting the current NAV for the estimated future development profits of
€0.514 per share indicates a potential future NAV ("Development Profit NAV"
or "DPNAV") of €2.214 per share (at 30 September 2007: €2.142) an increase
of 3.36 per cent. over the third quarter and 43.21 per cent over the year
(at 31 December 2006: €1.546)
• Lakeview, the office joint venture development with AIG/Lincoln, is
subject to heads of terms with prospective tenants for 90 per cent of the
building's space. Construction tendering is nearing completion and work is
expected to start on site towards the end of the first quarter
• Four new leases have been signed at Baneasa Business Centre contributing
to a value uplift of €1.1 million in the 31 December valuation compared with
the previous quarter. The leases represent a total of 2,421 square metres ("
sqm") of offices, 127 sqm of storage and 38 parking spaces. The average
lease length in the building has jumped from 1.7 years unexpired to 3.9
years
• Strong rental growth in the Bucharest office market has led to a valuation
gain over the quarter of €2.5 million from the company's ownership of the
Cascades and Banu Antonache office buildings
• The New Town residential scheme continues to experience strong forward
sales of its residential units. Sales commenced in July and 227 apartments
have now been reserved off plan comprising 94 per cent. of the two first
releases of 241 apartments. The sale of the third release of 75 units will
start on 1 March with a further price uplift of 10 per cent.
• The acquisition of the Evocentre office building comprising 3,213 sqm of
office and retail space was completed on 21 November for €5.16 million. The
building is 52 per cent. let to Adama, the Israeli developer which
constructed the building. The building is now valued at €6.07 million
contributing to a net asset value uplift of €0.91 million in less than two
months since Fabian has owned the building.
• DPNAV is continue to grow driven by the contribution of the Timisora deal
with Fabian's share representing €4.8 million, €4.4 million contribution
from the Cubic Center forward purchase valued at 7.15 per cent. yield, a
€1.6 million uplift of the valuation of New Town and an uplift of €0.33
million in the valuation of the Lakeview office joint venture.
• The 50 per cent. joint venture residential project, acquired in the second
quarter of 2007 in Timisoara, to develop 350 apartments together with local
developer Coltex is reaching final architectural stages. A new planning
application ("PUZ") has been lodged with the city planning authorities to
upgrade the permissible volume above ground
• In total, nine investments executed or committed, with 62,850 sqm of
lettable office space in Bucharest secured together with two residential
developments (in Bucharest and Timisoara) with a total of approximately 1000
residential apartments in the process of development
To the shareholders of Fabian Romania
Fabian Romania Limited the AIM quoted dedicated Romanian real estate investor is
pleased to announce that its NAV as at 31 December 2007 is €1.70 per share. This
represents a rise of 5.79 per cent. from the preceding third quarter NAV of
€1.607 per share. For 2007 as a whole, the NAV of the company has risen 25.37
per cent. from €1.356 per share as at 31 December 2006.
The published NAV was calculated according to the Company's Articles of
Association and the results are summarised below:
Fabians'
(as at 31 share of Bank Original
December'07) Market Value (debt) Net Worth Investment
€m €m €m €m
Cascades 18.5 (9.2) 9.3 12.2
Banu 17.7 (8.9) 8.8 12.3
New Town * ^ 20.7 (5.2) 15.5 5.8
Lakeview * ^ 10.8 (5.6) 5.1 5.4
Cubic Center 12.4 0.0 12.4 12.3
Baneasa Business 29.5 (19.5) 10.0 23.9
Center
Timisoara * ^ 4.0 (2.5) 1.5 1.6
Evo 6.1 (3.7) 2.4 5.2
Net Cash 23.9
Other assets / (liabilities) ** (2.5)
Sub-total 119.7 (54.7) 86.4 78.5
Shares (#) 50,831,130
NAVPS (€) 1.7001
Growth in Q3 2007 5.79%
* represents Fabians' share of the development, Lakeview after post-acquisition
debt financing
** includes deposits on Evocenter & Romana plus deferred tax liabilities added
back
^ includes development WIP financed by bank debt
increase in original investment in the period as set out in text
Future Development Profit
Under the Red Book methodology of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors,
residual land valuations for development projects provided to Companies such as
Fabian Romania exclude the net present value of future development profits. The
Directors believe this approach whilst logical for valuing land plots between
buyers and sellers is not ideal for shareholders in quoted property companies
where development is a key component of the company's activities. In order to
provide transparency to our shareholders as to the potential level of such
future development profits that may accrue to the Company, DTZ Echinox ("DTZ")
is asked every quarter to provide estimates of these development profits.
Shareholders may then choose to discount these profits to estimate their net
present value in today's terms based on current market conditions.
The forecast development profit figures are stated gross and do not include all
costs that may be incurred by Fabian over the course of the projects (in
particular transaction fees and any carried interest payable to the investment
manager). The implied share of future development profit figures for the New
Town, Lakeview, Timisoara and Cubic Centre schemes based on the DTZ estimates is
highlighted in the table below.
Project Implied Fabian Share of future Development Profit Final Year of
from DTZ estimates (€m) Development *
New Town 8.1 2009
Lakeview 8.9 2009
Timisoara 4.8 2010
Cubic Center 4.4 2009
NAV contribution (€m) 26.1
NAVPS contribution (€) 0.514
* Fabian Romania estimates
Adding these forecast development profits of €26.1 million or €0.514 per share
to the NAV produces what the Directors have called the DPNAV of €2.214 per
share. This represents a rise of 3.36 per cent. over the 30 September 2007 DPNAV
of €2.142 and 43.21 per cent. over the DPNAV comparative figure as at 31
December 2006 of €1.546.
Portfolio Mix
As at 31 December 2007, the portfolio of the Company comprised the following
type of investments as a percentage of the net asset value of the Company.
Net
Portfolio mix worth
(as at 31 Dec'07)
Income 35%
Developments 44%
Cash & Other assets/liabilities 21%
100%
Lakeview building now 90 per cent. pre-let
In September, final building consent was granted for the Lakeview office
building. During the quarter, extensive work has been undertaken by our
development partner, AIG/Lincoln, to prepare the site for the start of
construction. Construction tendering is on-going and building is forecast to
start on site during the first quarter.
Detailed negotiations are nearing conclusion to pre-let the majority of the
building to a small number of multi-national tenants. At present, 90 per cent.
of the building's space is subject to heads of terms with prospective tenants.
Leases are expected to be signed during the first quarter at rents in line with
the investment manager's expectations.
DTZ, the Company's valuers, have given a land valuation, as at 31 December 2007,
of €8.8 million for the 50 per cent. share owned by Fabian. Adding work in
progress of €1.97 million, the total value of the company's 50 per cent. share
of the investment stands at €10.8 million. This has been financed by €2.43
million of equity and bank debt drawn down from MKB Bank of €5.64 million. The
resultant gain of €2.73 million equates to a satisfactory 112 per cent. return
to date on the company's invested equity of €2.43 million.
The forecast gross development value of the scheme, according to DTZ, is €71.8
million at 31 December 2007. This is based on a core yield of 6.8 per cent. and
forecast office rents of €15 per sqm per month. After deducting forecast
development costs, DTZ's forecast implies future development profits for the
company amounting to €8.9 million or some €0.18 per share. The Company currently
forecasts project completion to be achieved by the end of 2009.
Sales update at New Town
The directors are pleased to announce that as of the time of writing, 227
apartments in the New Town residential scheme have now been sold. A full sales
launch for New Town commenced in mid July 2007 with the release of the first
release, out of six, comprising 119 apartments. All apartments in the first
release have now been sold and 108 out of 122 in the second release have,
likewise, been sold. The first release had an average selling price of €1,299
per sqm and we are currently selling at an average price of €1,437 per sqm
(excluding VAT)
New Town is a scheme of 72,000 sqm above ground involving the construction of
636 apartments targeted at Bucharest's emerging middle class. The scheme was
granted final building consent at the start of April 2007. The joint venture
development company, Phoenix Park SRL, has agreed a fixed price build contract
with Mivan Kier.
The land value for the company's 50 per cent. share in New Town given by DTZ for
31 December 2007 is €15.5 million, an increase on the 30 September 2007
valuation of €13.95 million. Adding work in progress of €8.6 million, but
subtracting advances from customers of €3.47 million, the value of the company's
investment stands at €20.7 million. This has been financed by €5.75 million of
equity and bank debt drawn down from HVB of €5.22 million. The resultant gain of
€9.73 million equates to a 169 per cent. return on the company's invested equity
of €5.75.
DTZ's forecast imply future development profits amounting to €8.1 million or
some €0.16 per share. The Company currently forecasts project completion to be
achieved by the end of 2009.
Timisoara new planning application submitted
Fabian's first joint venture residential development project outside Bucharest
is reaching final stages in the architectural process with work planned to
commence on site in the fourth quarter of this year. A new planning application
("PUZ") has been lodged with the city planning authorities to upgrade the
permissible volume above ground. A firm of UK architects has been employed by
the development joint venture to develop the concept design and to work with
local architects to finalise the planning on the site. To date, the investment
manager has been extremely impressed with the quality of the design ideas
produced by the architects engaged. The plans seek to advance the quality of
design of residential apartments currently undertaken in Romania without
sacrificing commercial considerations.
During the quarter, the Company, in conjunction with its development partner,
Coltex, purchased a further 500 sqm of land to take the total size of the plot
to 13,245 sqm of land. This should allow the joint venture to construct 35,000
sqm of residential space above ground, subject to planning. The total purchase
price for all the plots purchased between June and October 2007 amounts to €6.54
million representing a price of €494 per sqm of land or €187 per sqm built above
ground. The company is planning to target sales of flats to local residents in
Timisoara, one of the richest cities in Romania, close to the Hungarian boarder
with a large ex-patriate Italian population. The City is the centre for many
international companies entering Romania preferring a base in the west of the
country towards Hungary and the rest of the European Union.
The land value for the company's 50 per cent. share in the Timisoara scheme
given by DTZ for 31 December 2007 is €3.7 million, up from the 30 September 2007
valuation of €3.5 million. Adding work in progress of €0.34 million, the total
value of the company's investment stands at €4.04 million. This has been
financed by €1.6 million of equity, and a proportionate share of bank debt drawn
down from Banca Romanesca of €2.53 million Adding in cash balances of €0.48
million results in a small gain to date of €0.39 million on the company's
invested equity of €1.6 million.
DTZ's forecast imply future development profits amounting to €4.8 million or
some €0.09 per share. The Company currently forecasts project completion to be
achieved by the end of 2010.
Completion of the Evocentre acquisition in Pipera, north Bucharest
During the second quarter 2007, Fabian announced the acquisition of the
Evocentre office building from its developers, the Adama Group of Israel. On 21
November, the company completed the acquisition of the building for a purchase
price of €5.16 million. In December, the company drew down on an investment loan
from Investkredit Bank AG for €3.68 million resulting in net equity post
drawdown of €1.49 million.
The building comprises 3,213 sqm of office and retail space and is 52 per cent.
let to Adama. The building is located in a predominately residential area just
north of the major development area of Pipera. By agreeing to purchase the
building empty, the company took 'letting risk' enabling it to acquire the
building at a more advantageous price. This transaction was very similar to the
manner in which the company had previously purchased the Banu Antonache building
also empty from a developer. As is stated later, vacancy rates in the city
remain sub three per cent. according to DTZ. and the office leasing market
continues to favour the landlord, thereby much reducing the supposed letting
risk. The letting of the reminding space is well under way with the investment
manager working in-house and with external agents.
The building was valued at €6.07 million by DTZ in the 31 December valuation
representing an uplift of €0.91 million or 18 per cent. from the purchase price
in the 1.5 months Fabian has owned the building. On actual equity invested by
Fabian of €1.49m, the gain equates to a 61 per cent. return.
Re-letting at Baneasa Business Centre
As was reported in the September update, the Company's purchase of the Baneasa
office building in June 2007, was an opportunity for Fabian to acquire another
good quality office building at an attractive price offering the possibility for
the investment manager to renegotiate existing leases as they came up for
renewal. The directors are pleased to report that three new leases have been
signed with existing tenants increasing the average remaining unexpired lease
lengths for the building from 1.7 years as at 30 September to 3.5 years as at 31
December.
New leases had been signed with Fresenius, one of the world's leading suppliers
of dialysis products, Schering Plough, the international pharmaceutical company
and Johnson Diversey, one of the worlds leading providers of cleaning and
hygiene products. Combined, the three new leases have added a further €264,000
to the annual rent roll at acquisition of €1.8 million, or 14.6 per cent. Of the
gain, €102,000 had been achieved by 31 December.
Since the year end, a further tenant, has taken a further 288 sqm for five years
at rents just below €20 per sqm and extended the lease over the company's
existing space at the same rent for a further three years taking all their let
space to five years unexpired.The net annual gain for the company from the new
Volksbank lease amounts to a further €56,000 per annum as from 1 February 2008.
The average lease length unexpired for the building has now risen to 3.9 years.
As at 31 December 2007, the building was valued by DTZ at €29.5 million,
representing a gain of €1.1 million over the third quarter valuation or a 23 per
cent. gain over the purchase price of €23.9 million in late June 2007.
As previously announced, the Company, in July, had drawn down on a debt facility
with Investkredit to increase total borrowings secured against Baneasa to almost
€19.7 million. This has resulted in a net equity invested by the company of
approximately €4.2 million pre revaluation. With a gain of €5.6 million since
acquisition, the Company will have achieved a pleasing pro forma return on
equity invested of 133 per cent by the year end.
Further gains on Banu Antonache and Cascades
The company's first two office buildings, Banu Antonache and Cascades, have seen
further gains in value over the quarter. DTZ has valued Cascades at €18.5
million representing a gain of €1.9 million or 11 per cent. over the third
quarter valuation of €16.6 million. On the original equity investment of €2.6
million, post debt drawdown, the return on the company's equity invested in
Cascades has now grown to 257 per cent. since acquisition in April 2006.
The Banu Antonache investment has also shown growth. The value by year end,
according to DTZ, amounted to €17.7 million, a gain of €600,000 over the quarter
or 3.5 per cent.. On the original invested equity of €3.4 million, the return on
the company's equity has grown to 158 per cent. since acquisition in December
2005.
The growth in value during the fourth quarter has come mainly from the Company's
valuers taking the view that both buildings are now 'under-rented' compared to
the average achievable office rents in the market for similar quality and
located buildings if they were being leased out today. This rate, based on
current market indicators, is termed the estimated rental value ("ERV").
DTZ believe Cascades could now achieve rents of €22 per sqm per month compared
to the actual rents of €18.5, Banu Antonache could achieve €20 per sqm per month
versus actual rent of €19.2, Baneasa could achieve €17.5 per sqm per month
versus actual rents of €15.6 and Evocentre could achieve €14 per sqm per month
versus actual rents of €13. To value this imputed surplus rental income, DTZ
have applied "reversionary" yields as set out in the table below.
However, if the buildings were actually leased out now and achieved the expected
ERV rent, the rental income would clearly cease to be theoretical and become
actual. As such, actual income is valued using the current yield or "core"
yield. If one was, therefore, to apply the core yield to the ERV rent, one can
calculate the value of the buildings as if they were rented today and achieved
the full ERV rent. The final column of the table below shows the value of each
building under this scenario. This, the directors believe, is the further
potential upside from the portfolio. Using DTZ's assumptions, this amounts to a
further €1.75 million of potential total value for the four income producing
buildings or €0.034 per share.
Valuation Current Yield on Reversionary ERV rent, ERV rent ERV / core Future Value
Income existing yield €sqm/ yield uplift
income month
€ € € € €
Banu 17,700,000 1,175,616 6.8% 7.8% 20 1,221,462 18,042,275 342,275
Cascades 18,500,000 1,130,860 6.8% 7.8% 22 1,305,886 19,204,206 704,206
Baneasa 29,500,000 1,936,378 6.8% 8.0% 18 2,032,302 30,108,178 608,178
Evo Centre 6,070,000 261,682 7.8% 9.8% 14 478,245 6,170,903 100,903
Total 71,770,000 4,504,536 6.9% 8.0% 19 5,037,895 73,525,562 1,755,562
Cubic Centre on time and on budget
The construction of the building for the company is now well under way and is
proceeding according to plan and to budget. The developer estimates practical
completion to be achieved during the second quarter of 2009. Fabian has paid an
initial instalment of €12.2 million towards the anticipated purchase price. This
is also expected to be the total equity requirement for the company. At the
practical completion of the building, Fabian will pay the final instalment based
upon a forward purchase yield of 7.4 per cent. to 7.8 per cent. applied to the
rents achieved by the developer.
DTZ, has estimated the future value of the Cubic Centre at €64.8 million based
on a yield of 7.15 per cent. as at 31 December 2007. After deducting the balance
of the purchse price still to be paid by the company, DTZ estimates a future
developer's profit of €4.4 million to Fabian or €0.09 per share.
The Property Market
The sub-prime lending crisis in the US has had a limited impact on the Romanian
property market so far. There is anecdotal evidence that some investors, whose
investment strategy involves high levels of gearing, have stepped back from
transactions at the more speculative end of the office investment market. In
addition, some overseas developers seeking to enter Romania or add to existing
land holdings have become more cautious in the size of schemes they are seeking
to develop.
The investment manager believes this may be somewhat beneficial to Fabian. As
Romania continues to develop, it is not in the company's interest for the
property market to move from boom to bust but rather to exhibit a more steady
rate of growth. If some of the more ambitious plans, from last summer, by
foreign developers have been scaled back or cancelled, this is much to the
benefit of the existing players in the Romanian property market such as Fabian.
It may also mean some further attractive opportunities for the company to pick
up buildings, like Baneasa, where the shorter lease lengths unexpired mean they
no longer fit into the investment grade category. Given the strength of the
office leasing market to the benefit of the landlord and the investment
manager's experience in this sub-sector, if opportunities appear to acquire such
buildings cheaply, they will be actively pursued.
The investment manager believes that there is evidence that the credit market is
tightening. In certain instances, banks appear to have increased their funding
costs by up to 50 basis points ("bp"). However in the investment manager's
opinion the availability of debt is still comfortable and fundamental lending
parameters, such as loan to value, debt service coverage ratios or amortisation
periods have not changed.
For offices, headline yields, as reported in the third quarter 2007 NAV
statement, have fallen to around 6 per cent. They are believed to have remained
at similar levels during the fourth quarter. Office rents are continuing to
increase and prime city centre rents are now well above €20 per sqm per month
with long term sustainable rents of up to €19 per sqm per month for prime
locations now believed to be achievable. The vacancy rates remain very low and
below 3 per cent..
A number of international investors have been active on the market including
investors from Austria with Immoeast historically most active but now with UK
and German funds having surpassed Austrian investment funds in terms of number
of transactions in the market. Other active funds on the market are APN Funds,
Europolis, North Real Estate and Generali.
In the beginning of 2007, the forecast new office space to be delivered onto the
market during the year was around 300,000 sqm. Reports from agents suggest that
around half of this volume was actually delivered during 2007, highlighting a
long term tendency to over optimism upon the part of local agents in respect of
how much space developers are physically able to construct in a given year.
Construction capacity, land title issues, difficulties over financing and
planning delays are all major contributory factors particularly for the less
experienced local developers. There are a number of new projects in the
pipeline, on site, or in advanced planning stages, but in the investment
manager's opinion it is likely that the delivery volumes will not materially
increase in 2008 reflecting some of the caution that is spreading to the
Romanian market as well as the specific difficulties highlighted. This should be
supportative of an equilibrium in the office leasing market at the very least
although further rental rises are expected by local agents. In the medium term,
the investment manager believes that Bucharest can sustain two million square
metres of class A office space compared to the current 800-900,00 square metres
at present. Even at two million square metres, it will put Bucharest only level
with Budapest in today's terms and Budapest is the capital city of a country,
Hungary, with a population half that of Romania.
Construction costs are forecast by Bucharest based cost consultants to increase
further in 2008, a trend seen throughout Eastern Europe. This will have some
impact for developers on returns for new projects especially in weaker locations
or where the land is over-priced. On the other hand increases in construction
costs are anticipated to be more than off-set by continuing growth in rental and
sales values. The investment manager continues to be prudent in selecting
projects for consideration by the Fabian's directors, having turned down at the
appraisal stage upwards of 100 opportunities in 2007 alone.
Other activity and outlook
As at 31 December 2007, approximately €23 million of equity (after refinancing)
from the €38.1 million of net proceeds from the AIM listing has been earmarked
for investment in the five transactions either executed or announced during the
year. After allowing for a cash reserve at the Jersey level, this leaves
approximately €11 million of equity to commit to further investments.
Fabian is working actively in the market to source new projects and is in
advanced negotiations to finalise a number of important transaction. The company
will continue its successful development strategy acting together with local and
international development partners. The Timisoara deal which represented the
first deal for Fabian outside Bucharest, has marked the start of a greater focus
going forward for the company both on the residential sub-sector and the
regional cities. With real wages growing 26 per cent in 2006 and again in double
digits in the first nine months of 2007, Romanian consumers are now increasingly
able to afford new apartments of around 100 square metres selling for between
€1,100 to €2,000 a square metre plus VAT. The growing availability of mortgage
finance has further accelerated this trend. In most regional cities, there has
been virtually no large scale residential development, aimed at the country's
emerging middle class, since 1990.
As stated previously, the investment manager no longer regards fully let offices
at yields below 7 per cent. as attractive either on an absolute basis or
relative to the opportunities available in Romania in other sub-sectors of the
market or through co-development opportunities. Exciting opportunities continue
to be pursued through participation in office co-investment developments. The
investment manager will continue to look at a number of opportunities arising to
purchase high quality offices with short lease lengths offering active
management opportunities.
In retail and logistics, yields for fully let buildings or for forward purchases
of buildings once let continue to offer attractive yields of between 7.25 - 8.00
per cent. To date, the Company has not purchased any such assets. This is in
large part due to their scarcity value, their large unit price relative to the
size of Fabian Romania and legal title issues. However, the investment manager
is looking at a number of opportunities in both of these sub-sectors.
The threat from a global recession driven by the sub-prime crises and decreased
consumer spending in the US and the emerging instability in world credit and
equity markets may impact to some extent on Romania. The investment manager is
keeping a close watch on the recent changes in the country's trade balances and
signs of increased inflation in Romania in order to be sensitive to potential
sudden and unexpected changes in the market. However Fabian is mitigating major
risks by having implemented measures to limit any dependency on certain market
events. For example in financing, the investment manager is working actively on
spreading the credit risk to not only different financial institutions but with
different and interpolating lengths of the credits and a mix of fixed and
floating loans. On the letting side, Fabian is working to secure pre-lets on an
early stage and to sign up strong and reputable tenants. Construction
procurement and costs are secured by not relying on a single developer and by
locking in fixed construction contracts once building consent is achieved. By
spreading investment into different sub sectors of the country's property
market and between Bucharest and the regions, the company will have achieved
some measure of diversification.
The Company's development projects, with strong development partners, continue
to make excellent progress and to set standards in the country in their
respective sub-sectors. Fabian's portfolio of office buildings is set to
continue to benefit from the strength of the office leasing market. A number of
attractive acquisition opportunities are currently under consideration. The
investment manager regards the outlook for the Company, the Romanian property
market and Romania in general as attractive for 2008.
Mark Holdsworth
Fabian Capital Limited
31 January 2008
The directors of Fabian accept responsibility for the information contained in
this announcement. To the best of the knowledge and belief of the directors of
Fabian (who have taken all reasonable care to ensure that such is the case) the
information contained in this announcement is in accordance with the facts and
does not omit anything likely to affect the import of such information.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange