Substantial Completion of Major Capital Investments in Development Projects
Shifting to Free Cash Flow with Sustainable Growth
Positive Waterflood Response, Encouraging Results at Acordionero
CALGARY, Alberta, Nov. 05, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Gran Tierra Energy Inc. ("Gran Tierra" or the "Company") (NYSE American:GTE)(TSX:GTE)(LSE:GTE) today announced the Company's financial and operating results for the quarter ended September 30, 2019 ("the Quarter"). All dollar amounts are in United States ("U.S.") dollars unless otherwise indicated. Production amounts are on an average working interest before royalties ("WI") basis unless otherwise indicated. Per barrel ("bbl") of oil equivalent ("BOE") amounts are based on WI sales before royalties. For per BOE amounts based on net after royalty ("NAR") production, see Gran Tierra's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed November 5, 2019.
Key Highlights
Message to Shareholders
Gary Guidry, President and Chief Executive Officer of Gran Tierra, commented: "Gran Tierra has completed the key investments required to underpin expected significant future free cash flow for shareholders. We forecast Gran Tierra to generate free cash flow - after development and exploration capital - in fourth quarter 2019 and full-year 2020. At a forecasted $60 per bbl Brent oil price, we are projecting free cash flow(1) of $75 million to $100 million during 2020, which we plan to use for net debt reduction and share buybacks.
With the Acordionero facility expansion capital investment behind us, we forecast significantly lower operating costs per BOE ahead. Despite the substantial investment in Acordionero since the acquisition in 2016, the field has generated $187 million of free cash flow(1). We operate over 95% of our asset base which provides Gran Tierra tremendous flexibility in terms of controlling future capital costs in response to a potentially volatile oil price environment.
While the reduction in production during the Quarter was unfortunate, we view this situation as temporary as we are now seeing the waterflood at Acordionero responding to the designed injection. The response across the field is matching internal reservoir simulation modeling estimates and provides better visibility to forecast and optimize production and long-term recovery. Our underlying asset value has not changed, and with the successful implementation of the waterflood and step-out appraisal extensions in Acordionero, we believe it has increased.
The Company is in an excellent position with low decline, high netback and long life conventional assets, which are capable of delivering a strong free cash flow profile and visible growth in production and reserves. We have grown Proved Plus Probable reserves by 163% over the last three years and we expect to continue that trend. We also have two near term potential exploration catalysts - we plan to spud the Cocona-1 well on PUT-1 before the end of the year and look forward to the drilling results from Tautaco-1 on LLA-10, which is currently drilling ahead."
Financial Highlights
Operations Update
Acordionero (100% WI, Operator)
Suroriente (52% WI and Operator)
Chaza Block - Costayaco (100% WI)
Ayombero-Chuira (100% WI)
Exploration Update
Putumayo Basin
Llanos Basin
Financial and Operational Highlights (all amounts in $000s, except per share and BOE amounts)
Three Months Ended September 30, | Nine Months Ended September 30, | ||||||||||||
2019 | 2018 | 2019 | 2018 | ||||||||||
Net (Loss) Income | $ | (28,833 | ) | $ | 75,295 | $ | 11,686 | $ | 113,456 | ||||
Per Share - Basic | $ | (0.08 | ) | $ | 0.19 | $ | 0.03 | $ | 0.29 | ||||
Per Share - Diluted | $ | (0.08 | ) | $ | 0.18 | $ | 0.03 | $ | 0.28 | ||||
Oil and Gas Sales | $ | 132,491 | $ | 175,118 | $ | 443,049 | $ | 476,792 | |||||
Operating Expenses | (35,603 | ) | (29,511 | ) | (104,119 | ) | (78,019 | ) | |||||
Workover Expenses | (10,979 | ) | (13,106 | ) | (30,025 | ) | (25,922 | ) | |||||
Transportation Expenses | (3,179 | ) | (7,505 | ) | (16,167 | ) | (21,024 | ) | |||||
Operating Netback(1) | $ | 82,730 | $ | 124,996 | $ | 292,738 | $ | 351,827 | |||||
G&A Expenses Before Stock-Based Compensation | $ | 7,645 | $ | 3,679 | $ | 24,782 | $ | 17,254 | |||||
G&A Stock-Based Compensation (Recovery) Expense | (8 | ) | 10,132 | 1,092 | 19,919 | ||||||||
G&A Expenses, Including Stock Based Compensation | $ | 7,637 | $ | 13,811 | $ | 25,874 | $ | 37,173 | |||||
Adjusted EBITDA(1) | $ | 67,930 | $ | 110,340 | $ | 260,005 | $ | 295,489 | |||||
Funds Flow from Operations(1) | $ | 59,021 | $ | 85,015 | $ | 222,740 | $ | 254,312 | |||||
Capital Expenditures | $ | 116,495 | $ | 101,463 | $ | 310,579 | $ | 258,551 | |||||
Average Daily Volumes (BOEPD) | |||||||||||||
WI Production Before Royalties | 32,918 | 36,170 | 35,454 | 35,553 | |||||||||
Royalties | (5,155 | ) | (7,571 | ) | (5,929 | ) | (7,222 | ) | |||||
Production NAR | 27,763 | 28,599 | 29,525 | 28,331 | |||||||||
(Increase) Decrease in Inventory | (58 | ) | 60 | 65 | (403 | ) | |||||||
Sales | 27,705 | 28,659 | 29,590 | 27,928 | |||||||||
Royalties, % of WI Production Before Royalties | 16 | % | 21 | % | 17 | % | 20 | % | |||||
Per BOE | |||||||||||||
Brent | $ | 62.03 | $ | 75.97 | $ | 64.75 | $ | 72.68 | |||||
Quality and Transportation Discount | (10.05 | ) | (9.55 | ) | (9.90 | ) | (10.14 | ) | |||||
Royalties | (8.19 | ) | (13.91 | ) | (9.19 | ) | (12.79 | ) | |||||
Average Realized Price | 43.79 | 52.51 | 45.66 | 49.75 | |||||||||
Transportation Expenses | (1.05 | ) | (2.25 | ) | (1.67 | ) | (2.19 | ) | |||||
Average Realized Price Net of Transportation Expenses | 42.74 | 50.26 | 43.99 | 47.56 | |||||||||
Operating Expenses | (11.77 | ) | (8.81 | ) | (10.73 | ) | (8.08 | ) | |||||
Workover Expenses | (3.63 | ) | (3.93 | ) | (3.09 | ) | (2.70 | ) | |||||
Operating Netback(1) | 27.34 | 37.52 | 30.17 | 36.78 | |||||||||
G&A Expenses | (2.53 | ) | (1.10 | ) | (2.55 | ) | (1.80 | ) | |||||
Severance Expenses | (0.05 | ) | (0.30 | ) | (0.11 | ) | (0.21 | ) | |||||
Realized Foreign Exchange (Loss) Gain | (0.14 | ) | 0.06 | (0.03 | ) | (0.02 | ) | ||||||
Realized Financial Instruments Loss | (0.31 | ) | (3.20 | ) | (0.23 | ) | (2.73 | ) | |||||
Interest Expense, Excluding Amortization of Debt Issuance Costs | (3.76 | ) | (1.98 | ) | (2.89 | ) | (1.87 | ) | |||||
Interest Income | 0.04 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.22 | |||||||||
Current Income Tax Expense | (1.01 | ) | (5.73 | ) | (1.44 | ) | (3.78 | ) | |||||
Cash Netback(1) | $ | 19.58 | $ | 25.49 | $ | 22.99 | $ | 26.59 | |||||
Share Information (000s) | |||||||||||||
Common Stock Outstanding, End of Period | 366,982 | 391,339 | 366,982 | 391,339 | |||||||||
Weighted Average Number of Common and Exchangeable Shares Outstanding - Basic | 372,195 | 391,210 | 379,701 | 391,186 | |||||||||
Weighted Average Number of Common and Exchangeable Shares Outstanding - Diluted | 372,195 | 427,948 | 372,195 | 427,417 |
(1) Net debt is defined as face value of debt, less cash and cash equivalents. Net debt, funds flow from operations, operating netback, return on average capital employed, free cash flow, cash netback, earnings before interest, taxes and depletion, depreciation and accretion ("DD&A") and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes and depletion, depreciation and accretion ("EBITDA") and EBITDA adjusted for loss on redemption of Convertible Notes and loss or gain on investment ("Adjusted EBITDA") are non-GAAP measures and do not have standardized meanings under generally accepted accounting principles in the United States of America ("GAAP"). Cash flow refers to the GAAP line item net cash provided by operating activities. Free cash flow refers to the GAAP line item net cash provided by operating activities, less capital expenditures. Refer to "Non-GAAP Measures" in this press release.
(2) Operating netback in the context of updated 2019 guidance is a non-GAAP measure and does not have a standardized meaning under GAAP. Refer to "Non-GAAP Measures" in this press release for a description. The GAAP measure is oil and gas sales price. Estimated oil and gas sales price is calculated by subtracting 2019 forecasts of transportation and quality discount and royalties from the 2019 budget Brent oil price forecast as outlined in the relevant table above. Estimated 2019 operating netback is calculated by subtracting 2019 forecasts of transportation and quality discount, royalties, operating costs and pipeline transportation from the 2019 budget Brent oil price forecast as outlined in the relevant table above.
(3) G&A expense includes stock based compensation expense
Conference Call Information:
Gran Tierra will host its third quarter 2019 results conference call on Wednesday, November 6, 2019, at 9:00 a.m. Mountain Time, 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Interested parties may access the conference call by dialing +1-844-348-3792 or +1-614-999-9309 (North America), 0800-028-8438 or 020-3107-0289 (United Kingdom) or 01-800-518-5094 (Colombia). The call will also be available via webcast at www.grantierra.com.
Corporate Presentation:
Gran Tierra's Corporate Presentation has been updated and is available on the Company website at www.grantierra.com.
Contact Information
For investor and media inquiries please contact:
Gary Guidry
President & Chief Executive Officer
Ryan Ellson
Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Rodger Trimble
Vice President, Investor Relations
+1-403-265-3221
info@grantierra.com
About Gran Tierra Energy Inc.
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. together with its subsidiaries is an independent international energy company focused on oil and natural gas exploration and production in Colombia and Ecuador. The Company is focused on its existing portfolio of assets in Colombia and Ecuador and will pursue new growth opportunities throughout Colombia and Latin America, leveraging our financial strength. The Companys common stock trades on the NYSE American, the Toronto Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol GTE. Additional information concerning Gran Tierra is available at www.grantierra.com. Information on the Company's website does not constitute a part of this press release. Investor inquiries may be directed to info@grantierra.com or (403) 265-3221.
Gran Tierra's Securities and Exchange Commission filings are available on the SEC website at http://www.sec.gov and on SEDAR at http://www.sedar.com and UK regulatory filings are available on the National Storage Mechanism website at www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/nsm.
Forward-Looking Statements and Legal Advisories:
This press release contains opinions, forecasts, projections, and other statements about future events or results that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and financial outlook and forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws (collectively, "forward-looking statements"), which can be identified by such terms as expect, plan, guidance, "forecast", project, will, believe, and other terms that are forward-looking in nature. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the Company's expectations, budget, capital program, capital expenditures and guidance, including for certain future production, net cash provided by operating activities (described in this press release as cash flow), net debt, total capital, free cash flow in fourth quarter 2019 (assuming a $65 per bbl Brent oil price) and 2020 (assuming a $60 per bbl Brent oil price), operating netback and operating and workover expense estimates, the Companys strategies and the Companys operations including planned operations, oil prices and oil production and anticipated benefits from the Acordionero Projects.
The forward-looking statements contained in this press release reflect several material factors and expectations and assumptions of Gran Tierra including, without limitation, that Gran Tierra will continue to conduct its operations in a manner consistent with its current expectations, the accuracy of testing and production results and seismic data, pricing and cost estimates (including with respect to commodity pricing and exchange rates), rig availability, the risk profile of planned exploration activities, the effects of drilling down-dip, the effects of waterflood and multi-stage fracture stimulation operations, the extent and effect of delivery disruptions, equipment performance and costs, actions by third parties, and the general continuance of current or, where applicable, assumed operational, regulatory and industry conditions including in areas of potential expansion, and the ability of Gran Tierra to execute its current business and operational plans in the manner currently planned. Gran Tierra believes the material factors, expectations and assumptions reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable at this time but no assurance can be given that these factors, expectations and assumptions will prove to be correct.
Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements in this press release are: prices and markets for oil and natural gas are unpredictable and tend to fluctuate significantly; Gran Tierras operations are located in South America and unexpected problems can arise due to guerilla activity; technical difficulties and operational difficulties may arise which impact the production, transport or sale of our products; geographic, political and weather conditions can impact the production, transport or sale of our products; the risk that current global economic and credit conditions may impact oil prices and oil consumption more than Gran Tierra currently predicts; the ability of Gran Tierra to execute its business plan; the risk that unexpected delays and difficulties in developing currently owned properties may occur; the ability to replace reserves and production and develop and manage reserves on an economically viable basis; the timely receipt of regulatory or other required approvals for our operating activities; the failure of exploratory drilling to result in commercial wells; unexpected delays due to the limited availability of drilling equipment and personnel; the risk that current global economic and credit market conditions may impact oil prices and oil consumption more than Gran Tierra currently predicts, which could cause Gran Tierra to further modify its strategy and capital spending program; volatility or declines in the trading price of our common stock; and the risk factors detailed from time to time in Gran Tierras periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including, without limitation, under the caption "Risk Factors" in Gran Tierra's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018 filed February 27, 2019 and its Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. These filings are available on the SEC website at http://www.sec.gov and on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Although the current capital spending program and long term strategy of Gran Tierra is based upon the current expectations of the management of Gran Tierra, should any one of a number of issues arise, Gran Tierra may find it necessary to alter its business strategy and/or capital spending program and there can be no assurance as at the date of this press release as to how those funds may be reallocated or strategy changed.
All forward-looking statements included in this press release are made as of the date of this press release and the fact that this press release remains available does not constitute a representation by Gran Tierra that Gran Tierra believes these forward-looking statements continue to be true as of any subsequent date. Actual results may vary materially from the expected results expressed in forward-looking statements. Gran Tierra disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as expressly required by applicable securities laws. Gran Tierras forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement.
The estimates of 2019 future production, net cash provided by operating activities (described in this press release as cash flow), net debt, total capital, free cash flow in fourth quarter 2019 (assuming a $65 Brent oil price) and 2020 (assuming a $60 Brent oil price), operating netback and operating and workover expenses set forth in this press release may be considered to be future-oriented financial information or a financial outlook for the purposes of applicable Canadian securities laws. Financial outlook and future-oriented financial information contained in this press release about prospective financial performance, financial position or cash flows are based on assumptions about future events, including economic conditions and proposed courses of action, based on managements assessment of the relevant information currently available, and to become available in the future. These projections contain forward-looking statements and are based on a number of material assumptions and factors set out above. Actual results may differ significantly from the projections presented herein. These projections may also be considered to contain future-oriented financial information or a financial outlook. The actual results of Gran Tierras operations for any period will likely vary from the amounts set forth in these projections, and such variations may be material. See above for a discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to vary. The future-oriented financial information and financial outlooks contained in this press release have been approved by management as of the date of this press release. Readers are cautioned that any such financial outlook and future-oriented financial information contained herein should not be used for purposes other than those for which it is disclosed herein. The Company and its management believe that the prospective financial information has been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting managements best estimates and judgments, and represent, to the best of managements knowledge and opinion, the Companys expected course of action. However, because this information is highly subjective, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future results.
Non-GAAP Measures
This press release includes non-GAAP financial measures as further described herein. These non-GAAP measures do not have a standardized meaning under GAAP. Investors are cautioned that these measures should not be construed as alternatives to net income or loss or other measures of financial performance as determined in accordance with GAAP. Gran Tierra's method of calculating these measures may differ from other companies and, accordingly, they may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. Each non-GAAP financial measure is presented along with the corresponding GAAP measure so as to not imply that more emphasis should be placed on the non-GAAP measure.
Operating netback as presented is defined as oil and gas sales less operating and transportation expenses. See the table entitled Financial and Operational Highlights above for the components of consolidated operating netback and corresponding reconciliation.
Cash netback as presented is defined as net income before DD&A expenses, deferred income tax expense, amortization of debt issuance costs, unrealized foreign exchange gains and losses, loss on sale, non-cash operating and general and administrative ("G&A") expenses and unrealized financial instruments gains and losses. Management believes that operating netback and cash netback are useful supplemental measures for investors to analyze financial performance and provide an indication of the results generated by Gran Tierra's principal business activities prior to the consideration of other income and expenses. A reconciliation from net income to cash netback is as follows:
Three Months Ended September 30, | Nine Months Ended September 30, | |||||||||||||||
Cash Netback - (Non-GAAP) Measure ($000s) | 2019 | 2018 | 2019 | 2018 | ||||||||||||
Net (loss) income | $ | (28,833 | ) | $ | 75,295 | $ | 11,686 | $ | 113,456 | |||||||
Adjustments to reconcile net (loss) income to cash netback | ||||||||||||||||
DD&A expenses | 49,812 | 51,630 | 164,430 | 137,698 | ||||||||||||
Deferred income tax expense (recovery) | 8,472 | (36,769 | ) | 31,752 | (118 | ) | ||||||||||
Amortization of debt issuance costs | 789 | 816 | 2,574 | 2,329 | ||||||||||||
Unrealized foreign exchange loss (gain) | 6,412 | (672 | ) | 5,303 | 159 | |||||||||||
Loss on redemption of Convertible Notes | 11,305 | | 11,305 | | ||||||||||||
Non-cash operating expenses | | 142 | | 558 | ||||||||||||
Non-cash G&A (recovery) expense | (8 | ) | 10,132 | 1,092 | 19,919 | |||||||||||
Unrealized financial instruments loss (gain) | 11,355 | (15,560 | ) | (5,165 | ) | (19,329 | ) | |||||||||
Cash netback | $ | 59,304 | $ | 85,014 | $ | 222,977 | $ | 254,672 |
EBITDA, as presented, is defined as net income adjusted for DD&A expenses, interest expense and income tax expense or recovery. Adjusted EBITDA is defined as EBITDA adjusted for loss on redemption on convertible notes and loss or gain on investment. Management uses this financial measure to analyze performance and income or loss generated by our principal business activities prior to the consideration of how non-cash items affect that income, and believes that this financial measure is also useful supplemental information for investors to analyze performance and our financial results. A reconciliation from net income to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA as follows:
Three Months Ended September 30, | Nine Months Ended September 30, | |||||||||||||||
EBITDA - (Non-GAAP) Measure ($000s) | 2019 | 2018 | 2019 | 2018 | ||||||||||||
Net (loss) income | $ | (28,833 | ) | $ | 75,295 | $ | 11,686 | $ | 113,456 | |||||||
Adjustments to reconcile net (loss) income to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA | ||||||||||||||||
DD&A expenses | 49,812 | 51,630 | 164,430 | 137,698 | ||||||||||||
Interest expense | 12,153 | 7,404 | 30,655 | 20,274 | ||||||||||||
Income tax expense (recovery) | 11,521 | (17,661 | ) | 45,675 | 36,106 | |||||||||||
EBITDA | $ | 44,653 | $ | 116,668 | $ | 252,446 | $ | 307,534 | ||||||||
Loss on redemption of Convertible Notes | 11,305 | | 11,305 | | ||||||||||||
Investment loss (gain) | 11,972 | (6,328 | ) | (3,746 | ) | (12,045 | ) | |||||||||
Adjusted EBITDA | $ | 67,930 | $ | 110,340 | $ | 260,005 | $ | 295,489 |
Funds flow from operations, as presented, is net income adjusted for DD&A expenses, deferred tax expense, stock-based compensation expense, amortization of debt issuance costs, cash settlement of RSUs, non-cash lease expense, lease payments, unrealized foreign exchange gains and losses, financial instruments gains or losses, cash settlement of financial instruments and loss on sale. Management uses this financial measure to analyze performance and income or loss generated by our principal business activities prior to the consideration of how non-cash items affect that income or loss, and believes that this financial measure is also useful supplemental information for investors to analyze performance and our financial results. A reconciliation from net income to funds flow from operations is as follows:
Three Months Ended September 30, | Nine Months Ended September 30, | |||||||||||||||
Funds Flow From Operations - (Non-GAAP) Measure ($000s) | 2019 | 2018 | 2019 | 2018 | ||||||||||||
Net (loss) income | $ | (28,833 | ) | $ | 75,295 | $ | 11,686 | $ | 113,456 | |||||||
Adjustments to reconcile net (loss) income to funds flow from operations | ||||||||||||||||
DD&A expenses | 49,812 | 51,630 | 164,430 | 137,698 | ||||||||||||
Deferred tax expense (recovery) | 8,472 | (36,769 | ) | 31,752 | (118 | ) | ||||||||||
Stock-based compensation (recovery) expense | (8 | ) | 10,275 | 1,092 | 20,477 | |||||||||||
Amortization of debt issuance costs | 789 | 816 | 2,574 | 2,329 | ||||||||||||
Cash settlement of RSUs | | | | (360 | ) | |||||||||||
Non-cash lease expense | 472 | | 1,366 | | ||||||||||||
Lease payments | (755 | ) | | (1,603 | ) | | ||||||||||
Unrealized foreign exchange loss (gain) | 6,412 | (672 | ) | 5,303 | 159 | |||||||||||
Financial instruments loss (gain) | 12,285 | (4,874 | ) | (2,890 | ) | 6,840 | ||||||||||
Cash settlement of financial instruments | (930 | ) | (10,686 | ) | (2,275 | ) | (26,169 | ) | ||||||||
Loss on redemption of Convertible Notes | 11,305 | | 11,305 | | ||||||||||||
Funds flow from operations | $ | 59,021 | $ | 85,015 | $ | 222,740 | $ | 254,312 |
Free cash flow, when presented in the context of targeted 2020 free cash flow, is defined as GAAP net cash provided by operating activities less projected 2020 capital spending. Management believes that free cash flow is a useful supplemental measure for management and investors to in order to evaluate the financial sustainability of the Company's business. Gran Tierra is unable to provide a quantitative reconciliation of forward-looking free cash flow to its most directly comparable forward-looking GAAP measure because management cannot reliably predict certain of the necessary components of such forward-looking GAAP measure.
Presentation of Oil and Gas Information
BOEs have been converted on the basis of 6 thousand cubic feet ("Mcf") of natural gas to 1 bbl of oil. BOEs may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. In addition, given that the value ratio based on the current price of oil as compared with natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalent of six to one, utilizing a BOE conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 bbl would be misleading as an indication of value.
This press release contains certain oil and gas metrics, including operating netback and cash netback, which do not have standardized meanings or standard methods of calculation and therefore such measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies and should not be used to make comparisons. Such metrics have been included herein to provide readers with additional measures to evaluate the Company's performance; however, such measures are not reliable indicators of the future performance of the Company and future performance may not compare to the performance in previous periods.
References to thickness of oil pay or of a formation where evidence of hydrocarbons has been encountered is not necessarily an indicator that hydrocarbons will be recoverable in commercial quantities or in any estimated volume. Well test results should be considered as preliminary and not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery. Well log interpretations indicating oil and gas accumulations are not necessarily indicative of future production or ultimate recovery. If it is indicated that a pressure transient analysis or well-test interpretation has not been carried out, any data disclosed in that respect should be considered preliminary until such analysis has been completed.