Annual Financial Report - 5 of 44

RNS Number : 1061A

HSBC Holdings PLC

27 March 2012

 



Economic profit/(loss)

Our internal performance measures include economic profit/(loss), a calculation which compares the return on financial capital invested in HSBC by our shareholders with the cost of that capital. We price our cost of capital internally and the difference between that cost and the post-tax profit attributable to ordinary shareholders represents the amount of economic profit/(loss) generated. In order to concentrate on external factors rather than measurement bases, we emphasise the trend in economic profit/(loss) ahead of absolute amounts.

Our long-term cost of capital is reviewed annually and is 11% for 2011; this remains unchanged from 2010. The following commentary is on a reported basis.

The return on invested capital increased by 1.5 percentage points to 10.2%, which was 0.8 percentage points lower than our benchmark cost of capital. Our economic loss was US$1.3bn, US$2.0bn less than the loss at 31 December 2010, reflecting an increase in profit attributable to shareholders. This was predominantly driven by a significant increase in the fair value of own debt and a lower tax charge.

The increase in average invested capital reflected higher retained earnings and an increase in average foreign exchange reserves, primarily due to the effect of euro and sterling exchange rate movements on our underlying assets.

	2011				2010
	US$m		%45		US$m		%45
Average total shareholders' equity ............................................................	156,129				138,224
Adjusted by:
Goodwill previously amortised or written off .........................................	8,123				8,123
Property revaluation reserves ...............................................................	(914)				(813)
Reserves representing unrealised losses on effective cash flow hedges ....	287				100
Reserves representing unrealised losses on available-for-sale securities ...	3,379				6,129
Preference shares and other equity instruments .....................................	(7,256)				(5,473)
Average invested capital46 .........................................................................	159,748				146,290
Return on invested capital47 ......................................................................	16,224		10.2		12,746		8.7
Benchmark cost of capital ........................................................................	(17,572)		(11.0)		(16,092)		(11.0)
Economic loss and spread .........................................................................	(1,348)		(0.8)		(3,346)		(2.3)

For footnotes, see page 95.

Reconciliation of RoRWA measures

In addition to measuring return on average risk weighted assets ('RoRWA') we measure our performance internally using underlying RoRWA, which is underlying profit before tax as a percentage of average risk weighted assets ('RWA's) adjusted for the effects of foreign currency translation differences. Underlying RoRWA adjusts performance for certain items which distort year-on-year performance as explained on page 16.

We also present underlying RoRWA adjusted for the effect of legacy credit in GB&M (the legacy credit portfolio is described on page 23) and the US consumer finance business (the Cards and Retail Services business along with the run-off portfolio disclosed on page 88); together, the legacy businesses. This excludes the results and RWAs related to operations which are not regarded as contributing to the longer-term performance of the Group.

	2011						2010
	Pre-tax        return		Average        RWAs		RoRWA		Pre-tax          return		Average         RWAs		RoRWA
	US$m		US$bn		%		US$m		US$bn		%
Reported ...................................................	21,872		1,154		1.9		19,037		1,098		1.7
Underlying ................................................	17,696		1,154		1.5		18,925		1,108		1.7
Legacy businesses.......................................	(2,847)		222		(1.3)		(1,871)		215		(0.9)
Legacy credit in GB&M ........................	(436)		33		(1.3)		226		23		1.0
US consumer finance business ................	(2,411)		189		(1.3)		(2,097)		192		(1.1)
Underlying (excluding legacy businesses) ...	20,543		932		2.2		20,796		893		2.3

Critical accounting policies

(Audited)

Introduction

The results of HSBC are sensitive to the accounting policies, assumptions and estimates that underlie the preparation of our consolidated financial statements. The significant accounting policies are described in Note 2 on the Financial Statements.

When preparing the financial statements, it is the Directors' responsibility under UK company law to select suitable accounting policies and to make judgements and estimates that are reasonable and prudent. The accounting policies that are deemed critical to our results and financial position, in terms of the materiality of the items to which the policies are applied and the high degree of judgement involved, including the use of assumptions and estimation, are discussed below.

Impairment of loans and advances

Our accounting policy for losses arising from the impairment of customer loans and advances is described in Note 2g on the Financial Statements. Loan impairment allowances represent management's best estimate of losses incurred in the loan portfolios at the balance sheet date.

Management is required to exercise judgement in making assumptions and estimates when calculating loan impairment allowances on both individually and collectively assessed loans and advances. Of the Group's total loans and advances to customers before impairment allowances of US$958bn (2010: US$978bn), US$17bn or 2% (2010: US$16bn; 2%) were individually assessed for impairment, and US$941bn or 98% (2010: US$962bn; 98%) were collectively assessed for impairment.

The most significant judgemental area is the calculation of collective impairment allowances. The geographical area with most exposure subject to this judgement is North America. Collective impairment allowances in North America were US$7bn, representing 62% (2010: US$9bn; 64%) of the total collectively assessed loan impairment allowance.

The methods used to calculate collective impairment allowances on homogeneous groups of loans and advances that are not considered individually significant are disclosed in Note 2g on the Financial Statements. They are subject to estimation uncertainty, in part because it is not practicable to identify losses on an individual loan basis because of the large number of individually insignificant loans in the portfolio.

The methods involve the use of statistically assessed historical information which is supplemented with significant management judgement to assess whether current economic and credit conditions are such that the actual level of inherent losses is likely to be greater or less than that suggested by historical experience. In normal circumstances, historical experience provides the most objective and relevant information from which to assess inherent loss within each portfolio. Sometimes, however, it provides less relevant information about the inherent loss in a given portfolio at the balance sheet date, for example, when there have been changes in economic, regulatory or behavioural conditions which result in the most recent trends in portfolio risk factors being not fully reflected in the statistical models. In these circumstances, the risk factors are taken into account by adjusting the impairment allowances derived solely from historical loss experience.

Risk factors include loan portfolio growth, product mix, unemployment rates, bankruptcy trends, geographical concentrations, loan product features, economic conditions such as national and local trends in housing markets, the level of interest rates, portfolio seasoning, account management policies and practices, changes in laws and regulations, and other influences on customer payment patterns. Different factors are applied in different regions and countries to reflect local economic conditions, laws and regulations. The methodology and the assumptions used in calculating impairment losses are reviewed regularly in the light of differences between loss estimates and actual loss experience. For example, roll rates, loss rates and the expected timing of future recoveries are regularly benchmarked against actual outcomes to ensure they remain appropriate.

Under certain specified conditions, the Group provides loan forbearance to borrowers experiencing financial difficulties by agreeing to modify the contractual payment terms of loans in order to improve the management of customer relationships, maximise collection opportunities and, if possible, avoid default or repossession. Where forbearance activities are significant, higher levels of judgement and estimation uncertainty are involved in determining their effects on loan impairment allowances. Forbearance activities take place in both retail and wholesale loan portfolios, but the Group's largest concentration is in the US, in HSBC Finance's CML portfolio. A detailed review of the CML portfolio was carried out during 2011 to improve the risk differentiation in the segmentation of the portfolio. The review involved extensive statistical analysis of actual default experience in the portfolio. Amongst other improvements, this review resulted in changes to further differentiate the credit characteristics of forbearance cases, including those which return to performing status following forbearance. As part of this review, the application of the Group accounting policies for the determination of impairment allowances for the CML portfolio was considered, in particular regarding the effect of the large proportion of renegotiated loans in this portfolio. The consequent changes did not result in a material change to impairment allowances recorded by HSBC Finance under IFRSs. Further information regarding forbearance activities is disclosed on page 129.

The exercise of judgement requires the use of assumptions which are highly subjective and very sensitive to the risk factors, in particular to changes in economic and credit conditions across a large number of geographical areas. Many of the factors have a high degree of interdependency and there is no single factor to which our loan impairment allowances as a whole are sensitive. They are particularly sensitive to general economic and credit conditions in North America, however. For example, a 10% increase in impairment allowances on collectively assessed loans and advances in North America would increase loan impairment allowances by US$0.7bn at 31 December 2011 (2010: US$0.9bn).

It is possible that the outcomes within the next financial year could differ from the assumptions built into the models, resulting in a material adjustment to the carrying amount of loans and advances.

Goodwill impairment

Our accounting policy for goodwill is described in Note 2p on the Financial Statements. Note 24 on the Financial Statements lists our cash generating units ('CGU's) by geographical region and global business. HSBC's total goodwill amounted to US$21bn at 31 December 2011 (2010: US$22bn).

The review of goodwill impairment reflects management's best estimate of the following factors:

·     the future cash flows of the CGUs are sensitive to the cash flows projected for the periods for which detailed forecasts are available and to assumptions regarding the long-term pattern of sustainable cash flows thereafter. Forecasts are compared with actual performance and verifiable economic data, but they necessarily and appropriately reflect management's view of future business prospects at the time of the assessment; and

·     the rates used to discount future expected cash flows are based on the costs of capital assigned to individual CGUs and can have a significant effect on their valuation. The cost of capital percentage is generally derived from a Capital Asset Pricing Model, which incorporates inputs reflecting a number of financial and economic variables, including the risk-free interest rate in the country concerned and a premium for the inherent risk of the business being evaluated. These variables are subject to fluctuations in external market rates and economic conditions beyond our control and are consequently subject to uncertainty and require the exercise of significant judgement.

A decline in a CGU's expected cash flows and/or an increase in its cost of capital reduces the CGU's estimated recoverable amount. If this is lower than the carrying value of the CGU, a charge for impairment of goodwill is recognised in our income statement for the year.

The accuracy of forecast cash flows is subject to a high degree of uncertainty in volatile market conditions. In such market conditions, management retests goodwill for impairment more frequently than annually to ensure that the assumptions on which the cash flow forecasts are based continue to reflect current market conditions and management's best estimate of future business prospects.

During 2011, no impairment of goodwill was identified (2010: nil). In addition to the annual impairment test which was performed as at 1 July 2011, management reviewed the current and expected performance of the CGUs as at 31 December 2011 and determined that there was no indication of potential impairment of the goodwill allocated to them, except for the GB&M - Europe CGU, which experienced significantly reduced profitability in the second half of 2011. The reduced forecast profitability resulted in a reduction in the recoverable amount of the CGU when compared to its carrying amount. Consequently, the results of the goodwill impairment testing for this CGU are more sensitive to key assumptions used. Management retested the goodwill for this CGU and concluded that there was no impairment.

Note 24 on the Financial Statements includes details of the CGUs with significant balances of goodwill, states the key assumptions used to assess the goodwill in each of those CGUs for impairment and provides a discussion of the sensitivity of the carrying value of goodwill to changes in key assumptions.

Valuation of financial instruments

Our accounting policy for determining the fair value of financial instruments is described in Note 2d on the Financial Statements.

The best evidence of fair value is a quoted price in an actively traded market. In the event that the market for a financial instrument is not active, a valuation technique is used. The majority of valuation techniques employ only observable market data and so the reliability of the fair value measurement is high. However, certain financial instruments are valued on the basis of valuation techniques that feature one or more significant market inputs that are unobservable. Valuation techniques that rely to a greater extent on unobservable inputs require a higher level of management judgement to calculate a fair value than those based wholly on observable inputs.

Valuation techniques used to calculate fair values are discussed in Note 16 on the Financial Statements. The main assumptions and estimates which management consider when applying a model with valuation techniques are:

·     the likelihood and expected timing of future cash flows on the instrument. These cash flows are estimated based on the terms of the instrument, and judgement may be required when the ability of the counterparty to service the instrument in accordance with the contractual terms is in doubt. Future cash flows may be sensitive to changes in market rates;

·     selecting an appropriate discount rate for the instrument. The determination of this rate is based on an assessment of what a market participant would regard as the appropriate spread of the rate for the instrument over the appropriate risk-free rate; and

·     judgement to determine what model to use to calculate fair value in areas where the choice of valuation model is particularly subjective, for example, when valuing complex derivative products.

When applying a model with unobservable inputs, estimates are made to reflect uncertainties in fair values resulting from a lack of market data inputs, for example, as a result of illiquidity in the market. For these instruments, the fair value measurement is less reliable. Inputs into valuations based on unobservable data are inherently uncertain because there is little or no current market data available from which to determine the level at which an arm's length transaction would occur under normal business conditions. However, in most cases there is some market data available on which to base a determination of fair value, for example historical data, and the fair values of most financial instruments are based on some market observable inputs even when unobservable inputs are significant.

The value of financial assets and liabilities measured at fair value using a valuation technique was US$665bn (2010: US$599bn) and US$569bn (2010: US$499bn), respectively or 61% (2010: 56%) of total financial assets and 82% (2010: 77%) of total financial liabilities measured at fair value.

Disclosures of the types and amounts of adjustments made in determining the fair value of financial instruments measured at fair value using valuation techniques, and a sensitivity analysis of fair values for financial instruments with significant unobservable inputs to reasonably possible alternative assumptions, can be found in Note 16 on the Financial Statements. Given the uncertainty and subjective nature of valuing financial instruments at fair value, it is possible that the outcomes in the next financial year could differ from the assumptions used, and this could result in a material adjustment to the carrying amount of financial instruments measured at fair value.

Impairment of available-for-sale financial assets

Our accounting policy for impairment of available-for-sale financial assets is described in Note 2j on the Financial Statements.

At 31 December 2011, our total available-for-sale financial assets amounted to US$379bn (2010: US$381bn), of which US$372bn or 98% (2010: US$373bn; 98%) were debt securities. The available-for-sale fair value reserve relating to debt securities amounted to a deficit of US$4.9bn (2010: deficit of US$6.2bn). A deficit in the available-for-sale fair value reserve occurs on debt securities when the fair value of a relevant security is less than its acquisition cost (net of any principal repayments and amortisation) after deducting any impairment losses recognised.

Management is required to exercise judgement in determining whether there is objective evidence that an impairment loss has occurred. Once an impairment has been identified, the amount of impairment loss is measured with reference to the fair value of the asset. More information on assumptions and estimates requiring management judgement relating to the determination of fair values of financial instruments is provided above in 'Valuation of financial instruments'.

Deciding whether an available-for-sale debt security is impaired requires objective evidence of both the occurrence of a loss event and a related change in estimated future cash flows. The degree of judgement involved is less when cash flows are readily determinable, but increases when estimating future cash flows requires consideration of a number of variables, some of which may be unobservable in current market conditions.

There is no single factor to which the Group's charge for impairment of available-for-sale debt securities is particularly sensitive, because of the various types of securities we hold, the range of geographical areas in which those securities are held, and the wide range of factors which can affect the occurrence of loss events and the cash flows of securities, including different types of collateral.

The most significant judgements concern more complex instruments, such as asset-backed securities ('ABS's), where it is necessary to consider factors such as the estimated future cash flows on underlying pools of collateral including prepayment speeds, the extent and depth of market price declines and changes in credit ratings. The review of estimated future cash flows on underlying collateral is subject to uncertainties when the assessment is based on historical information on pools of assets, and judgement is required to determine whether historical performance remains representative of current economic and credit conditions.

Further details of the nature and extent of our exposures to ABSs classified as available-for-sale and a more detailed description of the assumptions and estimates used in assessing these securities for impairment, together with a discussion of those assets which are most sensitive to possible future impairment, are provided in 'Securitisation exposures and other structured products' on page 149.

It is possible that outcomes in the next financial year could be different from those modelled when seeking to identify impairment on available-for-sale debt securities. In this event, impairment may be identified in available-for-sale debt securities which had previously been determined not to be impaired, potentially resulting in the recognition of material impairment losses in the next financial year.

Deferred tax assets

Our accounting policy for the recognition of deferred tax assets is described in Note 2s on the Financial Statements. The recognition of a deferred tax asset relies on an assessment of the probability and sufficiency of future taxable profits, future reversals of existing taxable temporary differences and ongoing tax planning strategies.

The most significant judgements concern the US deferred tax asset, given the recent history of losses in our US operations. The net US deferred tax asset amounted to US$5.2bn or 68% (2010: US$4bn; 58%) of deferred tax assets recognised on the Group's balance sheet.

Recognition of the US deferred tax asset is based on the evidence available about conditions at the balance sheet date, and requires significant judgements to be made regarding projections of loan impairment charges and the timing of recovery in the US economy. These judgements take into consideration the effect of both positive and negative evidence, including historical financial performance, projections of future taxable income, future reversals of existing taxable temporary differences, tax planning strategies and the availability of loss carrybacks.

Projections of future taxable income in the US are based on business plans, future capital requirements and ongoing tax planning strategies. These projections include assumptions about future house prices, US economic conditions including unemployment levels and their impact on loan impairment charges, and capital support from HSBC Holdings. These forecasts are consistent with the assumption that it is probable that the results of future operations will generate sufficient taxable income to support the deferred tax assets. In management's judgement, recent market conditions, which have resulted in losses being incurred in the US, will create significant downward pressure and volatility regarding the profit or loss before tax in the next few years. To reflect this, the assessment of recoverability of the deferred tax assets in the US significantly discounts any future expected taxable income and relies to a greater extent on capital support to the US operations from HSBC Holdings, including tax planning strategies implemented in relation to such support.

The most significant tax planning strategy is the retention of capital in our US operations to ensure the realisation of the deferred tax assets. Management expects that, with this strategy, the US operations will generate sufficient future profits to support the recognition of the deferred tax assets. If HSBC Holdings were to decide not to provide this ongoing support, the full recovery of the deferred tax asset may no longer be probable and could result in a significant reduction of the deferred tax asset which would be recognised as a charge in the income statement.

These strategies remain unaffected by the proposed sale of the Group's US credit card and private label credit card business and 195 non-strategic branches. The incremental capital generated as a result of these disposals will reduce the capital support required from HSBC Holdings, but capital support from HSBC Holdings will continue to be relied on to the extent necessary to support the recoverability of our deferred tax assets.

Provisions for liabilities

The accounting policy for provision for liabilities is described in Note 2w on the Financial Statements. Note 33 on the Financial Statements discloses the major categories of provisions recognised. The closing balance of provisions amounted to US$3.3bn (2010: US$2.1bn), of which US$1.5bn (2010: US$1.0bn) relates to legal proceedings and regulatory matters and US$1.1bn (2010: US$0.4bn) relates to customer remediation.

Provisions are liabilities of uncertain timing or amount, and are recognised when there is a present obligation as a result of a past event, the outflow of economic benefit is probable and the outflow can be estimated reliably. Judgement is involved in determining whether an obligation exists, and in estimating the probability, timing and amount of any outflows. Professional expert advice is taken on litigation provisions, taxation provisions, property provisions including onerous contracts and similar liabilities.

Provisions for legal proceedings and regulatory matters typically require a higher degree of judgement than other types of provisions. When cases are at an early stage, accounting judgements can be difficult because of the high degree of uncertainty associated with determining whether a present obligation exists as a result of a past event, estimating the probability of outflows and making estimates of the amount of any outflows that may arise. As matters progress through various stages of development, management together with legal advisers evaluate on an ongoing basis whether provisions should be recognised, and the estimated amounts of any such provisions, revising previous judgements and estimates as appropriate. At more advanced stages, it is typically possible to make judgements and estimates around a better defined set of possible outcomes, however such judgements can be very difficult and the amount of any provision can be very sensitive to the assumptions used. There could be a wide range of possible outcomes for any pending legal proceedings, investigations or

inquiries. As a result, it is often not practicable to quantify a range of possible outcomes for individual matters. It is also not practicable to meaningfully quantify ranges of potential outcomes in aggregate for these types of provisions because of the diverse nature and circumstances of such matters and the wide range of uncertainties involved. For a detailed description of the nature of uncertainties and assumptions and the effect on the amount and timing of possible cash outflows on material matters, see Note 44, 'Legal proceedings and regulatory matters' on the Financial Statements.

Provisions for customer remediation also require significant levels of estimation and judgement. The amounts of provisions recognised depend on a number of different assumptions, for example, the number of customer complaints expected to be received, the response rates from customers who are contacted as part of customer outreach activities, the uphold rate for complaints and the amounts payable in respect of compensation and costs of conducting reviews. These assumptions are revised over time as additional information becomes available.

In view of the inherent uncertainties and the high level of subjectivity involved in the recognition and measurement of provisions, it is possible that the outcomes in the next financial year could differ from those on which management's estimates are based, resulting in a material change in the amounts of provisions recognised, and outflows of economic benefits which are materially different to those estimated by management for the purposes of the 2011 financial statements.

Basis of preparation

(Unaudited)

The results of global businesses and geographical regions are presented in accordance with the accounting policies used in the preparation of HSBC's consolidated financial statements.

Our operations are closely integrated and, accordingly, the presentation of global business data includes internal allocations of certain items of income and expense. These allocations include the costs of certain support services and global functions, to the extent that these can be meaningfully attributed to operational business lines. While such allocations have been made on a systematic and consistent basis, they necessarily involve a degree of subjectivity.

Where relevant, income and expense amounts presented include the results of inter-segment funding as well as inter-company and inter-business line transactions. All such transactions are undertaken on arm's length terms.

The expense of the UK bank levy is included in the Europe geographical region as HSBC regards the levy as a cost of being headquartered in the UK. For the purposes of the segmentation by global business, the cost of the levy is included in 'Other'.

 

END

 

 

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