Annual Report and Accounts -

RNS Number : 7124P

HSBC Holdings PLC

31 March 2009

 

     

HSBC HOLDINGS PLC

 

 

 

Report of the Directors: Operating and Financial Review(continued)

Critical accounting policies

Impairment of loans and advances

HSBC's accounting policy for losses arising from the impairment of customer loans and advances is described in Note 2g on the Financial Statements. Loan impairment allowances represent management's best estimate of losses incurred in the loan portfolios at the balance sheet date.

    Management is required to exercise judgement in making assumptions and estimations when calculating loan impairment allowances on both individually and collectively assessed loans and advances. Of the Group's total loans and advances to customers before impairment allowances of US$957 billion (2007: US$1,001 billion), US$6.9 billion or 1 per cent (2007: US$6.5 billion; 1 per cent) were individually assessed for impairment, and US$950 billion or 99 per cent (2007: US$994 billion; 99 per cent) were collectively assessed for impairment.

    The most significant judgemental area is the calculation of collective impairment allowances. HSBC's most significant geographical area of exposure to collectively assessed loans and advances is North America, which comprised US$271 billion or 29 per cent (2007: US$301 billion; 30 per cent) of HSBC's total collectively assessed loans and advances. Collective impairment allowances in North America were US$15.9 billion, representing 77 per cent (2007: US$11.9 billion; 72 per cent) of the total collectively assessed loan impairment allowance.

HSBC uses two alternative methods to calculate collective impairment allowances on homogeneous groups of loans that are not considered individually significant:

• when appropriate empirical information is available, HSBC utilises roll-rate methodology. This methodology employs statistical analysis of historical data and experience of delinquency and default to estimate the likelihood that loans will progress through the various stages of delinquency and ultimately prove irrecoverable. The estimated loss is the difference between the present value of expected future cash flows, discounted at the original effective interest rate of the portfolio, and the carrying amount of the portfolio; and 

• in other cases, when the portfolio size is small or when information is insufficient or not reliable enough to adopt a roll-rate methodology, HSBC adopts a formulaic approach which allocates progressively higher percentage loss rates the longer a customer's loan is overdue. Loss rates are based on historical experience. 

Both methodologies are subject to estimation uncertainty, in part because it is not practicable to identify losses on an individual loan basis because of the large number of individually insignificant loans in the portfolio. 

    In addition, the use of statistically assessed historical information is supplemented with significant management judgement to assess whether current economic and credit conditions are such that the actual level of inherent losses is likely to be greater or less than that suggested by historical experience. In normal circumstances, historical experience provides the most objective and relevant information from which to assess inherent loss within each portfolio. In certain circumstances, historical loss experience provides less relevant information about the inherent loss in a given portfolio at the balance sheet date, for example, where there have been changes in economic, regulatory or behavioural conditions such that the most recent trends in the portfolio risk factors are not fully reflected in the statistical models. In these circumstances, such risk factors are taken into account when calculating the appropriate levels of impairment allowances, by adjusting the impairment allowances derived solely from historical loss experience.

This key area of judgement is subject to uncertainty and is highly sensitive to factors such as loan portfolio growth, product mix, unemployment rates, bankruptcy trends, geographic concentrations, loan product features, economic conditions such as national and local trends in housing markets, the level of interest rates, portfolio seasoning, account management policies and practices, changes in laws and regulations, and other factors that can affect customer payment patterns. Different factors are applied in different regions and countries to reflect different economic conditions and laws and regulations. The assumptions underlying this judgement are highly subjective. The methodology and the assumptions used in calculating impairment losses are reviewed regularly in the light of differences between loss estimates and actual loss experience. For example, roll rates, loss rates and the expected timing of future recoveries are regularly benchmarked against actual outcomes to ensure they remain appropriate.

The total amount of the Group's impairment allowances on homogeneous groups of loans is inherently uncertain because it is highly sensitive to changes in economic and credit conditions across a large number of geographical areas. Economic and credit conditions within geographical areas are influenced by many factors with a high degree of interdependency so that there is no single factor to which the Group's loan impairment allowances as a whole are sensitive. However, HSBC's loan impairment allowances are particularly sensitive to general economic and credit conditions in North America. For example, a 10 per cent increase in impairment allowances on collectively assessed loans and advances in North America would increase loan impairment allowances by US$1.6 billion at 31 December 2008 (2007: US$1.2 billion). It is possible that the outcomes within the next financial year could be different from the assumptions built into the models, resulting in a material adjustment to the carrying amount of loans and advances.

Goodwill impairment

HSBC's accounting policy for goodwill is described in Note 2(p) on the Financial Statements. Note 22 on the Financial Statements lists the Group's cash generating units ('CGUs') by geographical region and global business. Total goodwill for the Group amounted to US$22 billion as at 31 December 2008 (2007: US$34 billion).

The process of identifying and evaluating goodwill impairment is inherently uncertain because it requires significant management judgement in making a series of estimations, the results of which are highly sensitive to the assumptions used. The review of goodwill impairment represents management's best estimate of the factors below:

• the future cash flows of the CGUs are sensitive to the cash flows projected for the periods for which detailed forecasts are available, and to assumptions regarding the long-term pattern of sustainable cash flows thereafter. Forecasts are compared with actual performance and verifiable economic data in future years; however, the cash flow forecasts necessarily and appropriately reflect management's view of future business prospects at the time of the assessment; and

• the discount rate used to discount the future expected cash flows is based on the cost of capital assigned to an individual CGU, and can have a significant effect on the CGU's valuation. The cost of capital percentage is generally derived from a Capital Asset Pricing Model, which incorporates inputs reflecting a number of financial and economic variables, including the risk-free interest rate in the country concerned and a premium to reflect the inherent risk of the business being evaluated. These variables are subject to fluctuations in external market rates and economic conditions outside of management's control and are therefore established on the basis of significant management judgement and are subject to uncertainty.

When this exercise demonstrates that the expected cash flows of a CGU have declined and/or that its cost of capital has increased, the effect is to reduce the CGU's estimated recoverable amount. If this results in an estimated recoverable amount that is lower than the carrying value of the CGU, a charge for impairment of goodwill will be recognised in HSBC's income statement for the year. 

The accuracy of forecast cash flows is subject to a high degree of uncertainty in volatile market conditions. In such market conditions, management retests goodwill for impairment more frequently than annually to ensure that the assumptions on which the cash flow forecasts are based continue to reflect current market conditions and management's best estimate of future business prospects.

Given the extraordinary market events experienced globally during the second half of 2008, HSBC performed an additional impairment test on all the CGUs within the Group as at 31 December 2008. As a result, HSBC recognised an impairment charge of US$10.6 billion on Personal Financial Services - North America as at 31 December 2008 (2007: nil). Management concluded that the recoverable amount of the other CGUs to which goodwill has been allocated exceeded their carrying value. However, in the event of further significant deterioration in the economic and credit conditions beyond the levels already reflected by management in the cash flow forecasts for the CGUs, a material adjustment to a CGU's recoverable amount may occur which may result in the recognition of an impairment charge in the income statement.

Note 22 on the Financial Statements includes details of the CGUs with significant balances of goodwill, states the key assumptions used to assess the goodwill in each of those CGUs for impairment, and provides a discussion of the sensitivity of the carrying value of goodwill to changes in key assumptions. 

Valuation of financial instruments

HSBC's accounting policy for determining the fair value of financial instruments is described in Note 2d on the Financial Statements.

    The best evidence of fair value is a quoted price in an actively traded market. In the event that the market for a financial instrument is not active, a valuation technique is used. The majority of valuation techniques employ only observable market data, and so the reliability of the fair value measurement is high. However, certain financial instruments are valued on the basis of valuation techniques that feature one or more significant market inputs that are unobservable. Valuation techniques that rely to a greater extent on unobservable inputs require a higher level of management judgement to calculate a fair value than those based wholly on observable inputs.

Valuation techniques used to calculate fair values include comparisons with similar financial instruments for which market observable prices exist, discounted cash flow analysis, option pricing models and other valuation techniques commonly used by market participants. Valuation techniques incorporate assumptions that other market participants would use in their valuations, including assumptions about interest rate yield curves, exchange rates, volatilities, and prepayment and default rates. When valuing instruments by reference to comparable instruments, management takes into account the maturity, structure and rating of the instrument with which the position held is being compared. 

The main assumptions and estimates which management considers when applying a model with valuation techniques are:

• the likelihood and expected timing of future cash flows on the instrument. These cash flows are usually governed by the terms of the instrument, although management judgement may be required when the ability of the counterparty to service the instrument in accordance with the contractual terms is in doubt. Future cash flows may be sensitive to changes in market rates; 

• selecting an appropriate discount rate for the instrument. Management bases the determination of this rate on its assessment of what a market participant would regard as the appropriate spread of the rate for the instrument over the appropriate risk-free rate; and

• judgement to determine what model to use to calculate fair value in areas where the choice of valuation model is particularly subjective, for example, when valuing complex derivative products.

When applying a model with unobservable inputs, estimates are made to reflect uncertainties in fair values resulting from a lack of market data inputs, for example, as a result of illiquidity in the market. For these instruments, the fair value measurement is less reliable. Inputs into valuations based on unobservable data are inherently uncertain because there are little or no current market data available from which to determine the level at which an arm's length transaction would occur under normal business conditions. However, in most cases there are some market data available on which to base a determination of fair value, for example historical data, and the fair values of most financial instruments will be based on some market observable inputs even where the unobservable inputs are significant.

An analysis of the basis for valuation of financial instruments measured at fair value in the financial statements is provided on page 162. The value of financial assets and liabilities that use a valuation technique are US$876 billion (2007: US$626 billion) and US$671 billion (2007: US$401 billion) or 71 per cent (2007: 66 per cent) and 83 per cent (2007: 68 per cent) of total assets and total liabilities measured at fair value, respectively. A sensitivity analysis of fair values for financial instruments with significant unobservable inputs to reasonably possible alternative assumptions and a range of assumptions and inputs used in valuation models in respect of instruments of particular interest in the current market turmoil can be found on page 164. Given the uncertainty and subjective nature of valuing financial instruments at fair value, it is possible that the outcomes in the next financial year could differ from the assumptions used, and this could result in a material adjustment to the carrying amount of financial instruments measured at fair value.

Impairment of available-for-sale financial assets

HSBC's accounting policy for impairment of available-for-sale financial assets is described in Note 2(j) on the Financial Statements. 

Available-for-sale financial assets are measured at fair value, and changes in fair value are recognised in equity in the available-for-sale fair value reserve until the financial assets are either sold or become impaired. An impairment loss is recognised if there is objective evidence of impairment as a result of loss events which have an impact on the estimated future cash flows of the financial asset that can be reliably estimated. If an available-for-sale financial asset becomes impaired, the entire balance in equity relating to that asset is removed from equity and recognised in the income statement as an impairment loss. A further decline in the fair value of an available-for-sale debt security subsequent to the initial impairment is recognised in the income statement when there is further objective evidence of impairment.

At 31 December 2008 the Group's total available-for-sale financial assets amounted to US$286 billion (2007: US$273 billion), of which US$279 billion or 98 per cent (2007: US$261 billion; 95 per cent) were debt securities. At 31 December 2008, the available-for-sale fair value reserve relating to debt securities amounted to a deficit of US$21.4 billion (2007: deficit of US$2.4 billion). A deficit in the available-for-sale fair value reserve occurs on an available-for-sale debt security when the fair value of the security is less than the security's acquisition cost (net of any principal repayments and amortisation) less any previous impairment loss recognised in the income statement, but there is no evidence of any impairment or, if an impairment was previously recognised, any subsequent impairment.

Management is required to exercise judgement in determining whether there is objective evidence that an impairment loss has occurred. Once an impairment has been identified, the amount of impairment loss is measured in relation to the fair value of the asset. More information on assumptions and estimates requiring management judgement relating to the determination of fair values of financial instruments is provided above in 'Valuation of financial instruments'. 

The objective evidence required to determine whether an available-for-sale debt security is impaired comprises evidence of the occurrence of a loss event and evidence that the loss event results in a decrease in estimated future cash flows. Where cash flows are readily determinable, a low level of judgement may be involved. Where determination of estimated future cash flows requires consideration of a number of variables, some of which may be unobservable in current market conditions, more significant judgement is required.

The most significant judgements concern more complex instruments, such as asset-backed securities ('ABS's), where it is necessary to consider factors such as the estimated future cash flows on underlying pools of collateral, the extent and depth of market price declines and changes in credit ratings. The review of estimated future cash flows on underlying collateral is subject to estimation uncertainties where the assessment is based on historical information on pools of assets, and judgement is required to determine whether historical performance is likely to be representative of current economic and credit conditions. A description of these securities is included in the 'Impact of market turmoil' section under 'Nature and extent of HSBC's exposures' on page 150 and a more detailed description of the assumptions and estimates used in assessing these securities for impairment is disclosed in the section 'Assessing available-for-sale assets for impairment' on page 170. 

There is no single factor to which the Group's charge for impairment of available-for-sale debt securities is particularly sensitive, because of the range of different types of securities held, the range of geographical areas in which those securities are held, and the wide range of factors which can affect the occurrence of loss events and the cash flows of securities, including different types of collateral. 

Management's current assessment of the holdings of available-for-sale ABSs with the most sensitivity to possible future impairment is focused on sub-prime and Alt-A residential mortgage-backed securities ('MBSs'). The Group's principal exposure to these securities is in the Global Banking and Markets' business. Excluding holdings in certain special purpose entities where significant first loss risks are borne by external investors, the available-for-sale holdings in these categories within Global Banking and Markets amounted to US$5.2 billion at 31 December 2008 (2007: US$11.8 billion). The deficit in the available-for-sale fair value reserve as at 31 December 2008 in relation to these securities was US$5.9 billion (2007: US$1.1 billion).

The main factors in the reduction in fair value of these securities over the period were the effects of reduced market liquidity and negative market sentiment. The level of actual credit losses experienced was low in 2008, notwithstanding the deterioration in the performance of the underlying mortgages in the period as US house prices fell and defaults increased. The absence of material credit losses is judged to be attributable to the seniority of the tranches held by HSBC as well as the priority for cash flow held by these tranches. 

Further details of the nature and extent of HSBC's exposures to asset backed securities classified as available-for-sale are provided in 'Impact of market turmoil-nature and extent of HSBC's exposures' on page 150.

It is reasonably possible that outcomes in the next financial year could be different from the assumptions and estimates used in identifying 

impairment on available-for-sale debt securities, as a result of which, evidence of impairment may be identified in available-for-sale debt securities which had previously been determined not to be impaired. It is possible that this could result in the recognition of material impairment losses in the next financial year.

Deferred tax assets

HSBC's accounting policy for the recognition of deferred tax assets is described in Note 2s on the Financial Statements. A deferred tax asset is recognised to the extent that it is probable that future taxable profits will be available against which deductible temporary differences can be utilised. The recognition of a deferred tax asset relies on management's judgements surrounding the probability and sufficiency of future taxable profits, future reversals of existing taxable temporary differences and ongoing tax planning strategies. 

HSBC's most significant judgements are around the US deferred tax assets, where there has been a recent history of losses in HSBC's US operations. Net US deferred tax assets amounted to US$5.0 billion or 71 per cent (2007: US$3.7 billion; 70 per cent) of total net deferred tax assets recognised on the Group's balance sheet.

The amount of US deferred tax assets recognised is based on the evidence available about conditions at the balance sheet date, and requires significant judgements to be made by management, especially those based on management's projections of credit losses and the timing of recovery in the US economy. Management's judgement takes into consideration the impact of both positive and negative evidence, including historical financial performance, projections of future taxable income, future reversals of existing taxable temporary differences, and the availability of loss carrybacks. The recognition of the deferred tax asset is mainly dependent upon the projection of future taxable profits, future reversals of existing taxable temporary differences and the capacity to carry back net operating losses arising in 2009.

Tax losses were incurred in HSBC's US operations in 2008. Management has evaluated the factors contributing to the losses to determine whether the factors leading to the losses are temporary or indicative of a permanent decline in earnings. Based on its analysis, management has 

determined that the losses were primarily caused by increases in credit losses in the US due to the current housing and credit market conditions, as well as continued weakening in the general economy, which has led to higher unemployment levels and, consequently, higher credit losses.

In the US, management's projections of future taxable income are based on business plans, future capital requirements and ongoing tax planning strategies. These projections include assumptions about the depth and severity of further house price depreciation, assumptions about the US recession, including unemployment levels and their related impact on credit losses, and assumptions about ongoing capital support from HSBC.

The assumptions surrounding future expected credit losses in the US represent the most subjective areas of judgement in management's projections of future taxable income.

Management's forecasts support the assumption that it is probable that the results of future operations will generate sufficient taxable income to utilise the deferred tax assets. In management's judgement, the recent market conditions, which have resulted in losses being incurred in the US over the last two years, will create significant downward pressure and volatility on the profit or loss before tax in the next few years. To reflect this, the assessment of recoverability of the deferred tax asset in the US significantly discounts any future expected taxable income and relies to a greater extent on continued capital support to the US operations from HSBC, including tax planning strategies implemented in relation to such support. The most significant tax planning strategy is HSBC's investment of capital into its US operations to ensure the utilisation of the net operating loss carry forwards. This strategy provides substantial support for the recoverability of the deferred tax assets. HSBC expects that its US operations will continue to be dependent upon its capital support, and will continue to execute their business strategies and plans until they return to profitability. Based on management's forecasts, HSBC expects to provide capital support to its US operations in each of the next three years. If HSBC were to decide, however, not to provide this ongoing support, the full recovery of the deferred tax asset may no longer be probable and could result in a material adjustment to the deferred tax asset which would be recognised in the income statement. 

 

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