Interim Results
JP Morgan Fleming Indian IT PLC
24 June 2004
JPMORGAN FLEMING INDIAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT OF
UNAUDITED RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS TO 31st MARCH 2004
The Board today release the unaudited interim results of the Company for the six
months to 31st March 2004.
The following are comments from the Chairman:
Performance
I am pleased to report that the Company's return on net assets for the six
months to 31st March 2004 was +23.5%, outperforming the +17.2% total return of
the Company's benchmark, the MSCI India Index (in sterling terms). The return to
shareholders over the period was +37.0%, which not only reflected the move in
underlying portfolio performance but the narrowing of the discount over the
period from 14.1% to 4.6%.
Warrants
When the Company was launched, shareholders received one warrant for every five
shares purchased. Under the terms and conditions of the warrants, holders of
warrants had a final right on 2nd February 2004 to exercise all or part of their
holding of warrants and subscribe at £1 per share for fully paid ordinary shares
of 25 pence each in the Company.
I am delighted to report that on 2nd February 2004, 13,342,677 new ordinary
shares of 25 pence each were allotted as a result of the exercise of 13,342,677
warrants to subscribe for ordinary shares. In accordance with the terms and
conditions of the warrants, a trustee was appointed and exercised the remaining
warrants leading to the allotment of a further 3,453,923 new ordinary shares.
These shares were subsequently sold on 5th February 2004 at a price of 109 pence
per share and a distribution on a pro rata basis was made to those holders of
warrants.
The total number of ordinary shares in issue following the exercise of warrants
was 83,941,392.
Market Review
The six months ended 31st March 2004 was a period of two distinct halves, with
the first half more constructive for India than the second.
The fourth quarter of 2003 was a period of solid performance for the economy,
the corporate sector and indeed the Indian equity market. India's GDP expanded
at 10.4% year on year during the quarter, overtaking China to become the fastest
growing economy in Asia. While benefits of the good monsoon helped the
agriculture sector, where growth registered 17% year on year, industry and
services too performed well, delivering growth of 7% and 9% respectively.
Corporate India's performance for the fourth quarter of 2003 was not only
impressive, but it was also ahead of expectations, both in terms of quantum and
quality. Revenue growth was 12%, operating profit growth was 23% and net
earnings growth was 32.2%. In addition to this strong all-round performance, the
results once again beat expectations, forcing the consensus to upgrade
estimates.
The Indian equity market responded strongly to this positive growth backdrop.
The popular BSE Sensex of 30 leading stocks appreciated by 30%. While the bulk
of the buying was by foreign investors, who continued to display an almost
insatiable appetite for Indian equities, domestic investors participated too,
especially in December 2003, when the market appreciated by a substantial 17%.
The second half of the six-month period was markedly different in many ways,
leading to mildly negative returns for Indian equities in local currency terms.
First, it became clear that the elections were on the horizon. While it was
believed that the same BJP-led coalition government would return to power, it
also meant a slowdown in key economic and structural reforms momentum before
elections. Additionally, with the government realising that it was unlikely to
meet its privatisation target for the fiscal year 2004 (delay in the HPCL
strategic sale, mainly), it announced a large sell-off programme in key
government owned stocks aggregating over US$3bn. Although the issues were fully
subscribed, this cash call on the market, unprecedented in terms of scale and
timing, adversely altered the demand/supply dynamic for Indian equities. Several
companies also took advantage of buoyant market conditions to raise additional
resources, with convertible bonds being the preferred instrument.
Concerns regarding China's economic slowdown also began to manifest themselves.
While India's direct economic linkages with China are relatively low, commodity
producers in India have certainly benefited from higher product prices, driven
largely by China's demand for the same.
Outlook
Although fundamentals remain robust - economic growth tracking 7%+, earnings
growth continuing above 25%, interest rates remaining low and stable and
valuations below mid teens - two factors temper our enthusiasm in the short
term. First, is politics and the implications of the recent elections outcome.
Second, are liquidity and technical factors that could work to India's
disadvantage.
Contrary to all expectations, the election outcome did not return the incumbent
National Democratic Alliance government to power. Political uncertainty has
resurfaced and appears likely to stay. The new government stays in power with
the support of the communist parties. Reforms may slow down and some steps such
as privatisation may be revisited. Policy related sectors and stocks such as oil
& gas, banking and power have suffered severe price erosion already.
There have been concerns more recently that higher US interest rates and the
prospect of a stronger US dollar may result in unwinding of the 'carry trade'.
India has certainly been a big beneficiary of strong foreign flows throughout
this six month period, which aggregated US$6bn. We know that some of this money
does not have to be in India and believe that some investors will look to exit
as US interest rates rise, the US dollar strengthens and risk appetite reduces
sharply. The direction of foreign flows, a critical driver of equities in 2003
and in the first quarter of 2004, will determine the market direction, at the
very least in the short term.
On a medium to slightly longer term basis, India should be a relatively more
attractive market in Asia, in an environment of a slowing China. India's
dependence on China from an international trade perspective and from a corporate
earnings growth perspective remains among the lowest in Asia. Economic growth
and corporate performance is relatively unconnected to China. The key exception
here is producers of internationally traded commodities.
In terms of strategy, we have reduced exposure to international cyclicals such
as steel, non-ferrous metals, shipping and oil and increased exposure to
domestically focussed as well as pharmaceuticals and IT service stock. As a
tactical measure, we are maintaining about 5-6% cash in the portfolio.
Michael Cannan
It is with regret that the Board has learned of the death of the former Chairman
of the Company, Michael Cannan. Michael was Chairman from the Company's
inception until 30th September 2002.
Philip Daubeney
Chairman 24th June 2004
For further information, please contact:
Carolyn Ladd
J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management (UK) Limited, 020 7742 6000
Secretary to the Company
JPMorgan Fleming Indian Investment Trust plc
Unaudited figures for the six months ended 31st March 2004
Consolidated Statement of Total Return (Unaudited)
Six months to 31st March 2004 Six months to 31st March 2003 Year to 30th September 2003
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Realised gains on
investments - 3,038 3,038 - 1,153 1,153 - 5,178 5,178
Net change in
unrealised gains - 23,570 23,570 - 509 509 - 22,571 22,571
Currency (losses)/
gains on cash and
short term deposits - (16) (16) - 1 1 - (34) (34)
held during the period
Currency translation
difference - (6,787) (6,787) - (383) (383) - (3,993) (3,993)
Other capital items - (43) (43) - 6 6 - (38) (38)
Exchange adjustments - (16) (16) - 147 147 - 1,567 1,567
Unrealised losses on
intercompany loan - - - - (30) (30) - 153 153
Realised gains on
intercompany loan - 557 557 - - - - - -
Overseas dividends 403 - 403 171 - 171 1,055 - 1,055
Deposit interest 28 - 28 4 - 4 10 - 10
_______ ________ _______ _______ ________ _______ _______ _______ _______
Gross return 431 20,303 20,734 175 1,403 1,578 1,065 25,404 26,469
Management fee (486) - (486) (285) - (285) (607) - (607)
Other administrative
expenses (362) - (362) (302) - (302) (557) - (557)
Interest payable (37) - (37) (13) - (13) (40) - (40)
_______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______
(Loss)/return before (454) 20,303 19,849 (425) 1,403 978 (139) 25,404 25,265
taxation
Taxation (4) - (4) (22) - (22) (43) - (43)
______ _______ _______ ______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______
(Loss)/return
attributable to
shareholders (458) 20,303 19,845 (447) 1,403 956 (182) 25,404 25,222
===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
(Loss)/return per (0.63)p 28.08p 27.45p (0.62)p 1.95p 1.33p (0.26)p 36.49p 36.23p
ordinary share
JPMorgan Fleming Indian Investment Trust plc
Unaudited figures for the six months ended 31st March 2004
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET 31st March 31st March 30thSeptember
2004 2003 2003
£'000 £'000 £'000
Investments at valuation 105,714 44,367 68,417
Net current liabilities (1,499) (797) (844)
______ _______ _______
Total net assets 104,215 43,570 67,573
===== ===== =====
Net asset value per ordinary share 124.2p 64.5p 100.6p
CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOW STATEMENT
2004 2003 2003
£'000 £'000 £'000
Net cash outflow from operating activities (301) (224) (191)
Net cash outflow from returns on investments and (36) (13) (37)
servicing of finance
Net cash (outflow)/inflow from capital expenditure and (16,980) 3,382 3,070
financial investment
Net cash inflow /(outflow) from financing 17,755 (4,781) (4,703)
_______ ______ ______
Increase/(decrease) in cash for the period 438 (1,636) (1,861)
===== ==== ====
The above financial information does not constitute statutory accounts as
defined in Section 240 of the Companies Act 1985. Statutory accounts for the
year ended 30th September 2003 have been delivered to the Registrar of
Companies.
J.P. MORGAN FLEMING ASSET MANAGEMENT (UK) LIMITED
24th June 2004
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange