Final Results
Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
28 May 2004
Objective of the Company
The objective of the Company is to maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value
with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of sterling capital, as measured by the annual average
yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock.
Highlights for the year
Performance comparisons 1 April 2003 - 31 March 2004
Middle market share price per Ordinary Share -7.9%
Net Asset Value per Ordinary Share U +13.2%
Benchmark* +4.9%
MSCI World Index (sterling) +21.7%
UK RPI Inflation +2.6%
* The index of the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock between the relevant dates
U Adjusted to include the payment of the dividend
Chairman's Statement
The share price* of your Company fell in value by 6.5% over the year to 31 March 2004. This was despite a rise in the
net asset value per share ('NAV')* of 13.2% and a rise in the benchmark of 4.9%. Although the NAV performed well
against the benchmark, it did not when compared to the 21.7% rise in world equity markets (as measured by the MSCI
World Index in sterling). The directors judge this to be the main reason why the share price failed to reflect some
recovery in the NAV and ended the financial year trading at a discount of 13.2%.
Since the Company's inception in January 2001 the share price* fell by 10.7% compared to a rise in the NAV* of 2.8%, a
fall in world equity markets of 31.7% and a rise in the benchmark (excluding the adjustments for the payment of
performance fees) of 16%. In conclusion, the Company has adequately preserved absolute value for shareholders but, as
yet, has failed to build any additional value to protect the value of your investment from ongoing inflation.
The primary, continued drag on performance was the fall in the value of the US dollar versus sterling. The Company has
maintained an approximate 50% exposure to the US dollar through its investments in US Treasury bonds, the Lindsell
Train long/short funds and equity investments in Dow Jones and Instinet. The Manager not only expects the underlying
assets to ultimately generate returns that would dwarf any change in currency, but also they continue to believe that
the US dollar should appreciate materially versus sterling.
Although bond prices were markedly higher and lower at times during the year, the Company's investments in long-term
fixed interest simply earned it their running yields which vary from 4.8% on the UK government bonds to 6.8% on the
Halifax and HBOS preference shares.
The most gratifying aspect of performance was the recovery in the price of some of the Company's media investments and
continued steady performance from the drinks companies. Reuters and Instinet recovered 281% and 100%, whilst
Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries, AG Barr and Glenmorangie A & B advanced 45%, 34%, 30% and 40% respectively.
The Lindsell Train funds contributed to performance in aggregate as the Lindsell Train Global Media Fund reflected the
recovery in the industry in rising by 27%. The performance helped to validate the strategy in the fund, which in turn
was supported by corporate activity such as Comcast's aborted acquisition of Disney and the stake building in
Manchester United. The Lindsell Train Japan Fund, in declining 2.9%, failed to generate absolute returns for the second
year in succession. This represented a disappointment for the Company as it would have been helpful to have made more
money in Japan at a time when it was one of the better performing global markets. The Manager's returns have never had
much correlation with the market in the past so this in no way precludes the possibility of generating significant
positive returns in the future even if the performance of the market changes.
The value of the Company's holding in Lindsell Train Limited ('Lindsell Train') rose 23.4% to £720,565. This reflected
a renewed advance in funds under management to £142m, partly due to market movements, but also reflecting £37m in
additional funds. In addition, there was a further improvement in profitability allowing the payment of an increased
dividend of £50 per share, a 25% increase on last year, representing a historical yield of 4.6% on Lindsell Train's
value at 31 March 2004. The prospects for future business are as ever primarily governed by investment performance. The
best prospects are in the long UK equity strategy, where performance of the Finsbury Growth Trust over three years has
annualised at 2.4% above the benchmark index. The returns from the Japan Fund and, to a lesser extent the Global Media
Fund, need to improve before Lindsell Train can realistically expect to add assets to these two products. Although both
have generated absolute returns since inception, they have also performed below expectations for periods of time. The
Media Fund has decisively recovered whilst the Japan Fund remains some 10% below its high watermark (prior fiscal
year-end high price). On a more encouraging note, Lindsell Train has recently been appointed as the investment advisor
of the Close Finsbury Japan Fund. Although the mandate is small, (£9m), it allows Lindsell Train to build a long-only
Japanese performance track record to add to the long/short one.
The Company's income increased 6.0%, partly in response to higher dividends but also to some increase in net leverage
from 15.3% of NAV to 20.8%. As a result, its debt service expense rose by £31,000, a cost almost offset by a 10%
reduction in expenses of £25,000. The directors propose a dividend of £1.45 per share, a rise of 11.5% on last year in
keeping with their policy to retain as much profit as necessary without jeopardising the Company's investment trust
status.
In the three years of the Company's existence the Manager has elucidated a clear and distinctive investment policy,
both in these semi-annual reports and in the monthly updates released to the Stock Exchange. It has proven to be
long-term, characterised by low activity and has inevitably been punctuated with periods when it seemed out of fashion.
The recent widening discount of the share price to the NAV is a reflection of such a period. Today, some investors
rightly or wrongly want to take on more risk than the Manager is prepared to do, are put off by the Company's exposure
to bonds and the US dollar and place less value on the strategic holding in the management company following
disappointing performance in one of its products. The directors recognise that these perceived disadvantages might
change quickly for the better. They reserve the option to exercise the power voted to them by shareholders to
repurchase shares for cancellation should they deem it prudent. Following recent consultations, the majority of
shareholders exhibited a greater concern about the diminished share trading volume likely to result from any
cancellation of shares rather than any immediate need to eliminate the discount.
Today your Company's NAV* is up 3% since inception versus a 32% fall in world equity markets. Although acceptable
absolute returns continue to elude us the directors judge that the investment strategy has been implemented in a clear
and thoughtful manner with the results so far showing signs of considerable success in some areas and much promise in
others. In addition, the directors continue to believe that the potential value of your holding in Lindsell Train has
been and could be enhanced further by the support your Company provides to its business.
*Adjusted to include dividends.
R M Swire
Chairman
28 May 2004
Investment Manager's Report
As this report is written, the net asset value (NAV) performance of your Company is as follows. The NAV* has gained 2%
over 3 months, 7% over 6 months, 8% over 12 months and 3% since inception. World equity markets (as measured by the
MSCI World Index in sterling), by contrast, have lost 2% over 3 months, gained 1% and 11% over 6 months and 1 year, and
fallen 32% since the Company's inception on 22 January 2001. Your Company is one of only a handful in HSBC's Global
Growth Investment Company sector, where your Company sits, that have generated any positive NAV return over the longer
period.
Shareholders may reasonably regard these statistics as irrelevant. For one thing, we have never claimed it appropriate
to measure the Company against the an equity index and, undeniably we have failed to keep the NAV growing at the target
rate of absolute return we set as our objective at launch three years ago. In addition, we can't disguise our
disappointment at not capturing more of the gain in world equity markets over the past 12 months. However, we believe
that the statistics are instructive for shareholders in two important ways.
First, they show that we do not merely pay lip service to the investment objective. We have constructed a portfolio
that we believe has the potential to generate steady real returns through stock market cycles - a portfolio that can
participate when equity markets are buoyant, but that offers defensive qualities when times are tougher. Shareholders
might prefer a more active strategy, to see us swing fully invested into equities when the markets are going up and out
of them during bear phases, but, with regret, we feel better able to respond to the price opportunities and excesses in
individual securities rather than whole markets. Second, and this is either good or bad depending on shareholder's
objectives and expectations, the Company's NAV performs very differently from the main equity markets, holding up well
during the bear market, lagging the recovery of 2003, but also putting on a strong burst of performance, such as that
of the last three months, during a generally quiet period for equity markets. We expect the Company to continue to
exhibit these characteristics but hope that the annualised rate of real return will improve.
As our unremarkable return from inception illustrates, it is easier to set out an objective of earning steady annual
returns, while protecting against falls, than to achieve it. Our approach to this challenge is based on two planks.
First, we assume assets that offer a high, safe income will always attract investor support, even if there are periods
when such assets perform dully in capital terms and that this income will make a measurable contribution to the
Company's total return. If we can identify assets with not only high, safe but also growing streams of income, then so
much the better and much of our research into the equity market is directed at companies that can offer this prized
characteristic. Our largest equity position, A.G. Barr ('Barr'), is, we believe, a wonderful example of the type of
opportunity we seek. Ten years ago, Barr paid a dividend of 6.75p, last year that payment reached 25.5p. Over the
decade its share price has more than doubled. Meanwhile, during the three years that we have accumulated stock, the
shares have risen more than 50.0% and we have enjoyed a dividend yield of over 5.5% on our average purchase price. Of
course, we would love to unearth more Barrs, but we find them in short supply. In the meantime, then, for the 'high
income' portion of our strategy, we are content to maintain exposure to a mix of fixed interest assets, including both
government bonds and preference shares. We are as guilty as any in, at times, over-intellectualising the case for bonds
and fixed interest. But in the end, the case is simply stated. Inflation is very low, having fallen to 1.1% annualised
in the UK in the month before this report was written and real yields on safe fixed interest are high by historical
standards. Against current low inflation these low risk returns appear attractive to us. When presented with
opportunities, though, to invest in equity with comparable yields and the prospect of growth, as we were with Diageo
last year (first purchased on a yield of c4.4%) we won't hesitate to do so.
Second, we have two other strategies at work in the Company, both designed to generate capital gains, rather than
immediate high income. These two, latterly, have begun to deliver positive returns for shareholders and we look to the
future for exceptional results from them, always recognising that this is a riskier, volatile portion of our portfolio
mix. These 'capital growth' strategies are captured in the two Lindsell Train funds and in some individual equity
positions, some of which are held within the funds too. While we do not claim that these two strategies are necessarily
the best available today to any investor in any market, nonetheless, we continue to believe strongly that our ideas are
the best for us, because they are located in markets or sectors where we have experience and understanding of the
opportunities.
So, we look for exceptional returns to be earned from our Japanese portfolio. Here, we have accumulated in its long
portfolio a range of Japanese companies with cash generative businesses, valued in aggregate on a free cash flow yield
of over 5.0%. If Japanese corporate culture continues to change and more of those free cash flows are delivered to
investors rather than accumulated on balance sheets, then this portfolio at a minimum should maintain its value, we
expect. One of its constituents, Kao, a Japanese cosmetic and household products company, does this already. Over the
last five years all its free cash flow has been returned to shareholders either though dividends or share buybacks.
This year they plan to raise the dividend 18%. This is atypical of historical behaviour by Japanese companies and a
promise of significant future total returns. At the same time, we expect the fund's short book, characterised by
cyclical, highly indebted, cash consumptive companies, to contribute to the gains, as investors require higher yields
from these to compensate for the unreliability of their returns. Meanwhile, our second 'capital growth' strategy, that
of participating in the accelerating rate of change in the global media industry, is beginning to appear less
ill-conceived, or at least more timely, than it did 12 months ago, at the nadir of the sector's fortunes. Our fund has
gained over 30.0%, in dollars, since that low and has now outperformed its sector by more than 20.0% since launch, just
over two years ago. We regard Comcast's bid for Disney, announced in the first quarter of 2004, as being the most
powerful endorsement imaginable for the strategy we pursue in the fund (media 'distribution' assets are vulnerable
without ownership or control of media 'content') and look forward to further gains.
Nintendo is an investment held in both funds and a direct position in the Company. As such it encapsulates all the
themes reviewed in this report. For instance, its shares have offered over the last 10 years a free cash flow yield of
4.5% and a dividend yield today 45.0% higher than the market average and better than that available on a 10 year
government bond (albeit only 1.3%). With over 40.0% of its current market capitalisation accounted for by the net cash
on its balance sheet, Nintendo fits the 'higher, safe yield' category we described above. Meanwhile, if Nintendo were
to behave in a more 'Western', shareholder friendly fashion, distributing more of its prodigious cash flows, at the
same time as its 'content' became more highly valued by investors, then we could have a great investment on our hands,
that neatly captures our thinking about the opportunity in both Japan and the media industry. The shares have been poor
performers since we began to accumulate them, but have done better so far in 2004.
Your Company has utilised its borrowing powers to just under half its maximum permitted levels. We believe that the
returns on both sides of the Company's portfolio, the 'income' and 'capital gain' portions, should exceed the current
and likely future costs of borrowing. If correct, this means the leverage will enhance total returns for our
shareholders. We will, of course, regularly review this assumption in the light of changes in interest rates.
*Adjusted to include dividends.
N Train
Investment Manager
Lindsell Train Limited
28 May 2004
The Lindsell Train Investment Trust plc
Statement of Total Return incorporating the revenue account for the year ended 31 March 2004
2004 2003
Revenue* Capital Total Revenue* Capital Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Gains/(losses) on investments - 2,029 2,029 - (3,151) (3,151)
Exchange differences - (68) (68) - 3 3
Gains on forward currency contracts - 24 24 - 9 9
Income 775 - 775 731 - 731
Investment management fees (92) - (92) (82) - (82)
Other expenses (111) (2) (113) (146) (1) (147)
Net return/(deficit) before
finance costs and taxation 572 1,983 2,555 503 (3,140) (2,637)
Interest payable
and similar charges (159) - (159) (128) - (128)
Return/(deficit) on ordinary
activities before tax 413 1,983 2,396 375 (3,140) (2,765)
Tax on ordinary activities (6) - (6) (9) - (9)
Return/(deficit) on ordinary activities
after tax for the financial year 407 1,983 2,390 366 (3,140) (2,774)
Dividends in respect of
equity shares (290) - (290) (260) - (260)
Transfer to/(from) reserves 117 1,983 2,100 106 (3,140) (3,034)
Return/(loss) per Ordinary Share: £2.03 £9.92 £11.95 £1.83 £(15.70) £(13.87)
All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from continuing operations.
* The revenue account in this statement represents the profit and loss account of the Company for the
financial year.
Balance Sheet as at 31 March 2004
2004 2003
£'000 £'000
Fixed assets
Investments 24,182 20,661
Current assets
Debtors 907 1,295
Cash at bank 7 11
914 1,306
Creditors: amounts falling due within one year (5,082) (4,053)
Net current liabilities (4,168) (2,747)
Total assets less current liabilities 20,014 17,914
Capital and reserves
Called up share capital 150 150
Special reserve 19,850 19,850
20,000 20,000
Capital reserve - realised (33) 211
Capital reserve - unrealised (226) (2,453)
Revenue reserve 273 156
Equity shareholders' funds 20,014 17,914
Net asset value per Ordinary Share: £100.07 £89.57
Cash Flow Statement for the year ended 31 March 2004
2004 2003
£'000 £'000
Net cash inflow from operating activities 585 456
Returns on investments and servicing of finance (153) (126)
Financial investment (1,522) (678)
(1,090) (348)
Equity dividends paid (260) -
Decrease in cash (1,350) (348)
Reconciliation of net cash flow to movement in net debt
Decrease in cash in the year (1,350) (348)
Exchange movements (68) 3
Opening net debt (2,656) (2,311)
Closing net debt (4,074) (2,656)
Reconciliation of movements in shareholders' funds
2004 2003
£'000 £'000
Opening shareholders' funds 17,914 20,948
Net revenue for the year 407 366
Dividend (290) (260)
Capital surplus for the year 1,983 (3,140)
Closing shareholders' funds 20,014 17,914
Notes
The statutory accounts for the year ended 31 March 2004 will be finalised on the basis of the financial information
presented by the directors in this preliminary announcement and will be delivered to the Registrar of Companies
following the Company's Annual General Meeting. Copies will be sent to shareholders shortly and will also be available
for collection from the Company's Registered Office at 77a High Street, Brentwood, Essex CM14 4RR.
The above results at 31 March 2003 are an abridged version of the Company's full accounts which received an audit
report that was unqualified and did not contain statements under Section 237(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985 and
which have been filed with the Registrar of Companies.
The net asset value per Ordinary Share is based on net assets of £20,014,000 (2003: £17,914,000) and on 200,000
Ordinary Shares (2003: 200,000),being the number of Ordinary Shares in issue at the year end.
Return per Ordinary Share:
Revenue Return:
The calculation of the revenue return per Ordinary Share is based on net revenue on ordinary activities after taxation
of £407,000 (2003: £366,000) divided by 200,000 Ordinary Shares (2003: 200,000) being the weighted average number of
Ordinary Shares in issue during the year.
Capital Return:
The calculation of the Capital Return per Ordinary Share is based on net capital gains for the financial year of
£1,983,000 (2003: loss £3,140,000) divided by 200,000 Ordinary Shares (2003: 200,000) being the weighted average number
of Ordinary Shares in issue during the year.
It is the intention of the directors to conduct the affairs of the Company so that it satisfies the conditions for
approval as an investment trust company set out in section 842 of the Income and Corporation Taxes Act 1988.
The Directors have proposed the payment of a final dividend of 145p (2003: 130p) per Ordinary Share payable on 15 July
2004 to shareholders registered on 11 June 2004 (ex-dividend 9 June 2004).
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