July Update

Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC 11 August 2004 The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC As at 31 July 2004 Fund Objective To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock. Share Price GBP 92.00 Net Asset Value GBP 100.93 Premium (Discount) (8.9%) Market Capitalisation GBP 18.4mn Benchmark (21/2% Con Ann Avg Yield +5.1%) +0.4 Source: Bloomberg; NAV-Lindsell Train. Share Price quoted is closing mid price. See Benchmark definition. Performance History (based in GBP) 2004 YTD 2003 2002 2001 2000 Net Asset Value % +7.9 +3.0 -9.6 +3.2 n/a Share Price % +9.2 -8.6 -19.8 +18.5 n/a Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Share Price quoted is closing mid price. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. With dividends added back. ** Please note performance data on reports prior to June 2004 did not include dividends. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what they invested. 2003 Performance Jan 03 Feb 03 Mar 03 Apr 03 May 03 Jun 03 Jul 03 Aug 03 Sep 03 Oct 03 Nov 03 Dec 03 Net Asset Value % -3.8 +1.9 -0.6 +1.1 +3.4 +0.5 +2.0 +1.7 -2.7 -0.5 -0.7 +0.9 Share Price % +0.0 +0.5 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 -2.8 -1.1 +2.2 -4.3 +2.2 -10.9 +6.1 2004 Performance Jan 04 Feb 04 Mar 04 Apr 04 May 04 Jun 04 Jul 04 Aug 04 Sep 04 Oct 04 Nov 04 Dec 04 Net Asset Value % +1.8 +3.2 +1.7 +0.8 +0.0 +2.3 -2.2 Share Price % -2.3 +5.9 -0.6 +0.6 +2.2 +2.7 +0.5 Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. With dividends added back. ** Please note performance data on reports prior to June 2004 did not include dividends. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what they invested. Industry Breakdown % of NAV Bonds 27.3 Preference Shares 14.4 Equity - Media 8.4 Equity - Banks & Investment Co. 3.8 Equity - Leisure & Ent. 10.2 Equity - Food & Beverage 26.6 Investment Fund 25.2 Cash & Equivalent (15.9) Total 100.0 Source: Lindsell Train Top 10 Holdings % of NAV US Gov Treasury 6.25% 12.4 Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 11.5 Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 10.0 HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 9.7 Barr AG 8.6 Glenmorangie A&B 8.5 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 8.5 Cadbury Schweppes 6.6 UK Treasury 2.5% 6.4 Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries 5.5 Source: Lindsell Train Fund Exposure Bonds Prefs Equity Funds Cash % of NAV UK % 14.9 14.4 42.2 3.7 (16.0) 59.2 USA % 12.4 - 2.1 11.5 3.2 29.2 Europe (ex UK) % - - - - - - Japan % - - 4.7 10.0 (3.1) 11.6 Total 27.3 14.4 49.0 25.2 (15.9) 100.0 Source: Lindsell Train Fund Manager's Comments This note is written in the immediate aftermath of the release of the US July payroll statistics. These shocked investors, revealing an anaemic rate of job creation and challenged, therefore, the conventional wisdom that the US and, indeed, the World economies are engaged in a standard economic upswing. We remain sceptical about this conventional analysis, believing that for the US and UK economies, at least, there was never sufficient of an economic downturn during 2001-03 to justify describing current conditions as a 'recovery'. In our view the 'recession' that the US is purportedly recovering from is yet to come. When it does, for the UK too, it will involve the consumer and be prolonged. Capital markets have begun to behave in a way that confirms our view of the world. Equities have been lacklustre through 2004, though the major markets are decidedly down, with the exception of Japan. Meanwhile, bond markets have recovered from the Q2 sell-off and have generated positive total returns year- to-date, in both the US and UK. Our large holding in the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock is up nearly 6.0% in price in 2004, annualising at over 15.0%, therefore, on a total return basis. Consciously or not, we think investors are beginning to price into assets the way the world might look if Anglo-Saxon consumers stopped borrowing and spending. So far as the capital markets are concerned, the primary result of such a retrenchment would, in our view, be a further fall in inflation expectations. Reported inflation is already very low of course, despite an unprecedented period of consumer boom. It seems reasonable to expect it to fall further if a consumer-led slowdown does eventually set in. From our perspective and relative to our investment objective, we think the most important implication for capital markets of a further decline in inflation expectations is the continuance of the tendency for UK fixed interest assets to deliver returns surprisingly competitive with those on UK equity. This is not a recent phenomenon. For instance, according to the Barclays Capital Gilt/Equity Survey, analysing data to December 31st 2003, UK equities returned 3.2% per annum real over the previous decade. This return lags that on gilts and corporate bonds, which returned 4.6% and 6.7% per annum respectively. Over 20 years the outcome is more 'normal', with UK equities the best performing asset class, earning an 8.0% per annum real return. Somewhat startlingly, though, the return on gilts over the same period was 6.1% per annum, illustrating what a wonderful bull market they too have enjoyed since the early 1980s. The excess return on equities over this 20-year period, of less than 2.0% per annum may or may not justify the additional risk and volatility attendant on investing in them. Incontrovertibly, though, the reward for taking on the additional risk associated with equities has been dwindling. Over 104 years, from 1900, equities outperformed gilts by an average of 4.0% per annum. For the 50 years to 2004, a 'golden era' for equity investing, the margin of outperformance averaged 5.6% per annum. For 20 years, as we have seen, the gap is now less than 2.0% and over the last decade equities failed to beat gilt returns. The reason why the gap is narrowing seems simple to us. Inflation expectations have fallen steadily over the past 20 years in the UK. This is an unalloyed good for holders of fixed interest securities, but can bring mixed results for 'real' assets, like equities. Put simplistically, the closer inflation rates tend towards zero, the higher the likelihood that a given company's earnings will fall in any year, rendering the equity asset class more risky than in a period of rising inflation. We do not mean to introduce an apocalyptic tone into this note. We do not predict a global recession, deflation or financial meltdown. We do not predict a bear market for Anglo-Saxon equity markets. Indeed, with a 3.3% net dividend yield, we think the UK equity market looks like an attractive source of modestly growing income. We do note, though, that most companies we meet or analyse appear to be working extremely hard just to stand still. Think of the gargantuan effort expended by Niall Fitzgerald and his team at Unilever in recent years, rationalising the product range and cutting costs, all for sales growth of less than 2.0% since 2000. We do not own Unilever for your Trust, though we can imagine a valuation at which we would be tempted, but take it as typical of how tough it is for companies to grow when inflation is as low as it is. Our portfolio mix is proving reasonably resilient, with the NAV up 7.9% year-to- date and down 2.2% in July, compared to the World Equity Index in Sterling down 2.8% and 3.3% respectively. We hope to make further progress with the NAV in H2, with likely candidates for further capital gain being our Japan Fund, now up 16.2% in US Dollar terms in 2004 and our gilts, bonds and preference shares, still 41.7% of the gross assets of the portfolio. Fund Manager Launch Date Denomination Nick Train 22 Jan 2001 GBP Year End Dividend Benchmark 31st Mar Ex Date: June The annual average yield on the 21/2% Payment: August Consolidated Loan Stock. The Board Management Fees Registered Address Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% Lindsell Train Investment Trust Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 10% of annual increase 77A High Street Donald Adamson in the share price, plus dividend, Brentwood Michael Lindsell above the gross annual yield of the 2 ESSEX CM14 4RR 1/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Listing ISIN Bloomberg London Stock Exchange GB0031977944 LTI LN Disclaimer This document is intended for use by persons who are authorised by the UK Financial Services Authority ('FSA') and those who are permitted to receive such information in the UK. The information contained in this document does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or sell any investments. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in this investment. The value of any investment in securities or funds and the income generated from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance cannot be used as a guide or guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the original amount you have invested. Changes in foreign exchange rates may cause the value of your investment to go up or down. Some funds with higher gearing may be subject to higher volatility and the investment value may change substantially. The net asset value (NAV) performance of an investment trust is not the same as its market share price performance. Issued by Lindsell Train Limited Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority 11 Aug 2004 LTL 000-018-6b Lindsell Train Limited 35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499 info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com Lindsell Train Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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