Monthly Briefing 28-2-2002

Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC 14 March 2002 The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC As at 28th February 2002 Fund Objective To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock. Share Price GBP 119.50 Net Asset Value GBP 105.25 Discount (Premium) (14.3%) Market Capitalisation GBP 23.9mn Source: Bloomberg Performance (based in GBP) Feb Jan Dec 1 Year Since Launch NAV -0.2 +1.5 -1.0 +5.5 +4.7 Share Price +1.7 -0.8 +2.6 -1.3 +17.5 2.5% Consol Loan Stock Annual Average Yield +5.1 Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Top 10 Holdings % NAV Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 12.7 US Gov Treasury 6.25% 12.6 Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 12.1 US Gov Treasury IL 3.875% 7.5 Halifax Group plc Pref 6.7 Cadbury Schweppes 5.4 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 5.4 Dow Jones & Co 5.3 Barr (AG) 5.0 UK Treasury 2.5% 4.7 Industry Breakdown % NAV Bonds 32.6 Preference Shares 10.8 Media 11.6 Banks & Investment Co. 6.3 Leisure & Tourism 8.3 Food & Beverage 14.9 Investment Fund 24.8 Cash & Equivalent (9.3) Total 100.0 Geographical Breakdown % NAV Bonds 32.6 UK 12.5 US 20.1 Preference Shares 10.8 Equities 41.1 UK 28.4 US 5.8 Japan 4.4 Europe 2.6 Funds 24.8 LT Japan 12.7 LT Global Media 12.1 Cash & Equivalent (9.3) Total 100.0 Currency Exposure % NAV USD 50.6 JPY 0.3 EUR 2.7 GBP 46.4 Total 100.0 Fund Manager's Comments This month we discuss risk in its various manifestations and relate these to the current structure of the portfolio. We regard the greatest risk for Lindsell Train Investment Trust as failing to meet the minimum criteria of preserving the purchasing power of our investment in the Company in Sterling in real terms. When assessing this risk, whether of individual securities or the portfolio as a whole yield is one factor above all others that gives us most comfort and reassurance. Dividend yields or bond coupons are the most tangible measure of 'yield' but for the right company earnings yields provide a level of comfort that is equally reassuring. In assessing risk it is helpful to identify and segment the various risks that we confront and that we must consider on an ongoing basis. The most important of these is capital loss. At a minimum we need to generate a positive return as we benchmark performance to the yield on an irredeemable gilt that will always have a positive income return, even if purchasing power declines in a deflation. There is risk from illiquidity, which becomes particularly acute when investors need to realise cash from securities quickly. Some investors perceive there to be risk from concentration or under-diversification and others from excessive volatility. Finally there is risk from leverage. One way to avoid that risk is not to borrow but we have and must consider the ramifications. We need to assess the risk of the cost increasing, the risk of the loan being called in and the risk of assets declining in value so increasing the lender's proportionate claim on the portfolio. A number of the investments we own had dividend yields when we bought them, which were equal to or exceeded our benchmark, which has been compounding at approximately 5.0% per annum since establishment. These include the UK Gilts, the US Treasury bond, the US index-linked Treasury bond, AG Barr, Halifax ordinary and preference shares and Wolverhampton and Dudley. These investments represent 53% of the portfolio or almost half the gross invested percentage. Most of it is represented by long term fixed interest with the coupons guaranteed except in the most unprecedented set of circumstances. The remainder have dividends that are well covered: Halifax's by 1.9x and Wolves's by 2.3x. If inflation remains benign or falls more, the real value of these income streams will likely rise. If the market concerns itself with the stability of earnings generally these shares should prove relatively defensive as they did at the worst time in markets last year. Liquidity risk is relevant for a number of our investments. A measure of liquidity is the speed at which we can sell each individual investment. Fortunately the closed end structure of the Company shelters us from the threat of redemption that other investment funds might experience. In our judgement the liquidity risk we suffer by investing in the irredeemable Gilts, AG Barr, Glenmorangie, Halifax preference shares and to a lesser extent Wolves is mollified by the knowledge that we receive regular globs of income from them. Recently we have borrowed money to leverage the portfolio. We borrow short term at a cost of approximately 5% from our custodian who uses the security of our assets to set against such loans. The cost will vary with the price of short-term money in the UK, which might rise, but we think has a good chance of falling over the long term. The chance of the custodian calling in our loan is more than anything else a function of our stewardship of the portfolio in maintaining or increasing the security from which he can claim. We are only prepared to leverage against assets that offer us a current running return higher than the cost of borrowing. As 37% of the portfolio fulfils this criterion we, by borrowing 9% of net assets, are somewhat underleveraged relative to our potential. However this is prudent as only the equity dividends have the ability to grow thereby giving us some margin of safety against rising borrowing costs, however unlikely, in years to come. Earnings yields for companies with steady predicable businesses that tend to grow in real terms can provide us with an equivalent measure of comfort compared to the aforementioned securities. Cadbury's, Glenmorangie, Wolters Kluwer are all examples. These represent another 12% of the portfolio. Today Cadbury's earnings yield is 5.5%. If earnings grow at 2% real for the next 5 years and bond yields remain the same Cadbury's premium to bond yields would double. We expect this growth to become more reflected in the price. If not, the equity offers protection from the threat of quotational loss. Other shares we hold are more risky in that their earning yields and in some cases dividend yields are less predictable from year to year. Even so the nature of the businesses are such that over multi-year periods they have proven to be prodigious generators of free cash flow and we believe should be so in the future. These include Dow Jones, Reuters and Instinet and Nintendo, which collectively represent 14% of the portfolio. It is important we have the ability to progressively accumulate these shares when, for whatever reason, their businesses are in short-term decline. The remaining 28% of the portfolio is invested in Lindsell Train Funds or Lindsell Train Ltd itself. Risk in the Funds depends on whether you focus on their net exposures, which are minimal, averaging 5%, or on gross exposures that average 70%. The reality is somewhere in between. Risk in the unquoted investment in Lindsell Train is undoubtedly high, both in the nature of the business (a start-up) but also from the perspective of liquidity, with the compensation that the entry price was commensurately low. If the business proves even a mild success the dividend flows, relative to the book cost should amply compensate for the risk. Risk as measured by volatility is something we don't think much about. We like to take advantage of downward volatility, by adding to positions but don't do anything to specifically minimise it. We would like to think that over time we would score highly when comparing return to volatility but this would be a by-product of how we invest and not central to it. We like to concentrate our investments and specifically don't want to over diversify. In today's world it is hard enough to find 15 investment ideas we have the confidence to commit to for many years. It would in our mind be irresponsible to dilute these simply for the sake of diversity and by implication declining quality. Fund Manager Launch Date Denominated Currency Nick Train 22 January 2001 GBP Year End Dividend Benchmark 31st March Ex-date: June The annual average yield on Payment: August the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Sedol No Bloomberg 3001710 LTI LN The Board Management Fees Registered Address Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% p.a. Lindsell Train Investment Trust Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 77A High Street Donald Adamson 10% of annual increase in Brentwood Michael Lindsell the share price, plus ESSEX DM14 4RR dividend, above the gross annual yield of the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Disclaimer The contents in this document is solely for information purposes only. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or subscribe any securities or funds in any jurisdiction in which such distribution is not authorised. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice and cannot be relied upon in making any investment decision. Applications to invest in some of the funds must only be made on the basis of offer documents which may only be available for private circulation. The information contained in this document is published in good faith and neither Lindsell Train Limited nor any other person so connected assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information as provided. No representation is made or assurance given that any statements made, views, projections or forecasts are correct or that objectives will be achieved. Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in the Fund. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the amount you invested. Foreign exchange rates may cause the value of investments to go up or down. Investments may be subject to higher volatility in certain funds and the investment value may fall suddenly and substantially. Lindsell Train Limited 35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499 info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com Lindsell Train Limited is regulated by the FSA. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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