Monthly briefing 31-July-2002

Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC 14 August 2002 The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC As at 31st July 2002 Fund Objective To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock. Share Price GBP 96.50 Net Asset Value GBP 94.26 Discount (Premium) (3.3%) Market Capitalisation GBP 19.3mn Source: Bloomberg NAV - LTL Performance (based in GBP) Jul Jun May 1 Year Since Launch NAV -5.3 -3.6 -0.4 -7.7 -6.6 Share Price -6.8 -8.0 -2.6 -20.9 -3.5 2.5% Consol Loan Stock +5.1 Annual Average Yield Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Top 10 Holdings % NAV US Gov Treasury 6.25% 14.0 Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 12.7 Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 12.5 US Gov Treasury IL 3.875% 8.0 HBOS 6.125% Non Cum 6.7 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 6.0 Cadbury Schweppes 5.9 UK Treasury 2.5% 5.2 Barr (AG) 5.2 HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 4.4 Industry Breakdown % NAV Bonds 36.4 Preference Shares 11.1 Media 8.4 Banks & Investment Co. 7.3 Leisure & Tourism 8.3 Food & Beverage 16.4 Investment Fund 25.2 Cash & Equivalent (13.0) Total 100.0 Geographical Breakdown % NAV Bonds 36.4 UK* 14.4 US 22.0 Preference Shares 11.1 Equities 40.4 UK 29.8 US 4.5 Japan 4.2 Europe 1.9 Funds 25.2 LT Japan 12.7 LT Global Media 12.5 Cash & Equivalent (13.0) Total 100.0 * Including the Daily Mail 2.5% 2004 Convertible Bonds (3% of NAV) Currency Exposure % NAV USD 52.1 JPY (0.3) EUR 1.9 GBP 46.4 Total 100.0 Fund Manager's Comments July was an extraordinary month for capital markets, finishing with the largest monthly fall, for the developed markets, since 1987 and contributing to the steepest annual falls for the US since 1929. The MSCI World Index was down c.13% in Pounds. From its low, mid month, the FT All-Share would have to rise 76% to return to its peak of September 2000, such is the math of its 43.0% drop since then. During the month we read with interest a Bloomberg story about a US wealth management company, called Private Capital Management, which has done a wonderful job for its clients over many years, pursuing a contrarian, value-oriented style. The crux of the article was that the company has begun to invest in beaten-up technology stocks, that meet its valuation criteria, in the belief, as one of our brokers wittily put it, that the 'New Economy' is the 'new value'. We have our own views about the necessity and we would put it that strongly, of accessing technology-advantaged companies for the eventual equity market recovery. However, what really caught our eye was the corporate motto of Private Capital Management, which is - 'We view capital as a precious, irreplaceable commodity'. We wish we had copyrighted that for Lindsell Train and certainly the events of 2002 remind every investor, however cautious or cavalier, of this truth. Many years ago we remember being surprised at the title that Wall Street guru, Gerald Loeb, chose for his book, published in the 1950's, that summarized his long investing career. The book is called 'The Battle For Investment Survival', which seemed unnecessarily lugubrious to a child of the 1980's bull market. But battle it has proven in 2002, with no truce in sight. This preamble prepares our investors for the melancholy fact that our NAV is down for the month, by 4.5% and at a new low. Our clients' capital (and our own) is precious to us and we hate losing it. One contribution to the decline, which we highlight in explanation, not excuse, is the fall in the US Dollar. Perhaps one third of our monthly loss in value arose from the decline in Dollar against the Pound. We did not anticipate this weakness and a loss is a loss, but perhaps shareholders might allow that the underlying volatility of the Trusts' assets is somewhat less than appears at first blush. We continue to expect the Dollar to recover against the Pound and the other major currencies, though only on a 'best of a bad bunch' principle. The UK economy's reliance on the financial services industry, a debt-fueled real estate market and ballooning government expenditure as its three sources of growth seems to us to be an unsound basis for an appreciating currency. Odd though it may sound, we were rather encouraged by developments for our portfolio over the month. Most obviously, the outlook for the fixed interest market has transformed in a matter of weeks. The smart money now anticipates a cut in US short rates and at least the maintenance of UK ones. As a result our long bonds have been hitting new highs for the year and we still regard them as attractive against likely inflation and probably relative to stocks. We are certain that a sine qua non of a new equity bull market is that bonds should look expensive relative to stocks. This may mean the restoration, however briefly, of a yield gap in the UK. Gilts yielding less than equities. With the Consol yielding less than 5.0% again and looking set to rise and the All Share yielding 3.5% and rocky, this is by no means improbable. We have 48% of your gross assets invested in bonds and preference shares, more if the fixed interest proportion of the two hedge funds is looked through. We worry that this allocation may not be enough to protect our NAV, but are not persuaded that we should sell stocks to fund any increase. We may, however, use our leverage further, if we can access highest quality bonds yielding more than our cost of borrow. Over the month we added to our HBOS preference shares, as we did back in May, using the XD of one of the shares to fund the purchase of an equivalent amount to the dividend of new shares. At the price we paid the HBOS prefs yield 7.0% net. In passing, HBOS reported its interim results during July. The figures were comforting for holders of the companies' preference shares, but also, we judge, for its ordinary shareholders, as we are too. In hindsight, HBOS' capital raising in February was inspired, meaning that the company is, arguably, overcapitalized, no bad thing for a bank in current circumstances. The dividend was increased by a prudent, but very real 5.0% (with UK inflation running at 1.5% annualized). We note it will take 12 years of 5.0% dividend increases before the yield on HBOS ordinary matches that on its preference stock. A long wait. We were equally reassured by Cadbury's interim report, where again the dividend was increased by 5.0%, from a position of enviable cover. We do not ignore, though, that underlying sales growth was less than 0.5%. Cadbury is a fine company and a decent investment, we believe, but investors are going to be reminded by it and many others, just how difficult it is to generate real growth in a no-inflation environment. Investors' jaundice toward the 'Old Economy', as evidenced through the millennium boom, had some validity. Nonetheless, we added to Cadbury on the worst day in July, with the stock briefly below £4.0, where the earnings yield exceeded 7.3%. Elsewhere, over the month we added modestly to our positions in Reuters and Nintendo. Nintendo comforts with 40% of its market value accounted for by its net cash. Reuters deserves an entire report or none at all. We are intrigued that its US subsidiary, Instinet, is now capitalized at $1.2bn and boasts net cash, before other assets, of $960m. The enterprise value of c$300m seems modest for a company that earned $160m last year, by no means peak earnings and controls an important strategic position in the US financial markets. We may well add to our separate position in Instinet, perhaps as our gesture to Private Capital Management's case for treating beaten down technology companies as Ben Graham-type value plays. Fund Manager Launch Date Denominated Currency Nick Train 22 January 2001 GBP Year End Dividend Benchmark 31st March Ex-date: June The annual average yield on Payment: August the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Sedol No Bloomberg 3001710 LTI LN The Board Management Fees Registered Address Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% p.a. Lindsell Train Investment Trust Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 77A High Street Donald Adamson 10% of annual increase in Brentwood Michael Lindsell the share price, plus ESSEX DM14 4RR dividend, above the gross annual yield of the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Disclaimer The contents in this document is solely for information purposes only. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or subscribe any securities or funds in any jurisdiction in which such distribution is not authorised. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice and cannot be relied upon in making any investment decision. Applications to invest in some of the funds must only be made on the basis of offer documents which may only be available for private circulation. The information contained in this document is published in good faith and neither Lindsell Train Limited nor any other person so connected assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information as provided. No representation is made or assurance given that any statements made, views, projections or forecasts are correct or that objectives will be achieved. Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in the Fund. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the amount you invested. Foreign exchange rates may cause the value of investments to go up or down. Investments may be subject to higher volatility in certain funds and the investment value may fall suddenly and substantially. Lindsell Train Limited 35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499 info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com Lindsell Train Limited is regulated by the FSA. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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