Monthly briefing 31-July-2002
Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
14 August 2002
The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
As at 31st July 2002
Fund Objective
To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute
value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of
Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5%
Consolidated Loan Stock.
Share Price GBP 96.50
Net Asset Value GBP 94.26
Discount (Premium) (3.3%)
Market Capitalisation GBP 19.3mn
Source: Bloomberg
NAV - LTL
Performance
(based in GBP) Jul Jun May 1 Year Since Launch
NAV -5.3 -3.6 -0.4 -7.7 -6.6
Share Price -6.8 -8.0 -2.6 -20.9 -3.5
2.5% Consol Loan Stock +5.1
Annual Average Yield
Source: Bloomberg.
Based in GBP.
Top 10 Holdings
% NAV
US Gov Treasury 6.25% 14.0
Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 12.7
Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 12.5
US Gov Treasury IL 3.875% 8.0
HBOS 6.125% Non Cum 6.7
21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 6.0
Cadbury Schweppes 5.9
UK Treasury 2.5% 5.2
Barr (AG) 5.2
HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 4.4
Industry Breakdown
% NAV
Bonds 36.4
Preference Shares 11.1
Media 8.4
Banks & Investment Co. 7.3
Leisure & Tourism 8.3
Food & Beverage 16.4
Investment Fund 25.2
Cash & Equivalent (13.0)
Total 100.0
Geographical Breakdown
% NAV
Bonds 36.4
UK* 14.4
US 22.0
Preference Shares 11.1
Equities 40.4
UK 29.8
US 4.5
Japan 4.2
Europe 1.9
Funds 25.2
LT Japan 12.7
LT Global Media 12.5
Cash & Equivalent (13.0)
Total 100.0
* Including the Daily Mail 2.5% 2004 Convertible Bonds (3% of NAV)
Currency Exposure
% NAV
USD 52.1
JPY (0.3)
EUR 1.9
GBP 46.4
Total 100.0
Fund Manager's Comments
July was an extraordinary month for capital markets, finishing with the largest
monthly fall, for the developed markets, since 1987 and contributing to the
steepest annual falls for the US since 1929. The MSCI World Index was down
c.13% in Pounds. From its low, mid month, the FT All-Share would have to rise
76% to return to its peak of September 2000, such is the math of its 43.0% drop
since then.
During the month we read with interest a Bloomberg story about a US wealth
management company, called Private Capital Management, which has done a
wonderful job for its clients over many years, pursuing a contrarian,
value-oriented style. The crux of the article was that the company has begun to
invest in beaten-up technology stocks, that meet its valuation criteria, in the
belief, as one of our brokers wittily put it, that the 'New Economy' is the 'new
value'. We have our own views about the necessity and we would put it that
strongly, of accessing technology-advantaged companies for the eventual equity
market recovery. However, what really caught our eye was the corporate motto of
Private Capital Management, which is - 'We view capital as a precious,
irreplaceable commodity'. We wish we had copyrighted that for Lindsell Train
and certainly the events of 2002 remind every investor, however cautious or
cavalier, of this truth. Many years ago we remember being surprised at the
title that Wall Street guru, Gerald Loeb, chose for his book, published in the
1950's, that summarized his long investing career. The book is called 'The
Battle For Investment Survival', which seemed unnecessarily lugubrious to a
child of the 1980's bull market. But battle it has proven in 2002, with no
truce in sight.
This preamble prepares our investors for the melancholy fact that our NAV is
down for the month, by 4.5% and at a new low. Our clients' capital (and our
own) is precious to us and we hate losing it. One contribution to the decline,
which we highlight in explanation, not excuse, is the fall in the US Dollar.
Perhaps one third of our monthly loss in value arose from the decline in Dollar
against the Pound. We did not anticipate this weakness and a loss is a loss,
but perhaps shareholders might allow that the underlying volatility of the
Trusts' assets is somewhat less than appears at first blush. We continue to
expect the Dollar to recover against the Pound and the other major currencies,
though only on a 'best of a bad bunch' principle. The UK economy's reliance on
the financial services industry, a debt-fueled real estate market and ballooning
government expenditure as its three sources of growth seems to us to be an
unsound basis for an appreciating currency.
Odd though it may sound, we were rather encouraged by developments for our
portfolio over the month. Most obviously, the outlook for the fixed interest
market has transformed in a matter of weeks. The smart money now anticipates a
cut in US short rates and at least the maintenance of UK ones. As a result our
long bonds have been hitting new highs for the year and we still regard them as
attractive against likely inflation and probably relative to stocks. We are
certain that a sine qua non of a new equity bull market is that bonds should
look expensive relative to stocks. This may mean the restoration, however
briefly, of a yield gap in the UK. Gilts yielding less than equities. With the
Consol yielding less than 5.0% again and looking set to rise and the All Share
yielding 3.5% and rocky, this is by no means improbable. We have 48% of your
gross assets invested in bonds and preference shares, more if the fixed interest
proportion of the two hedge funds is looked through. We worry that this
allocation may not be enough to protect our NAV, but are not persuaded that we
should sell stocks to fund any increase. We may, however, use our leverage
further, if we can access highest quality bonds yielding more than our cost of
borrow. Over the month we added to our HBOS preference shares, as we did back
in May, using the XD of one of the shares to fund the purchase of an equivalent
amount to the dividend of new shares. At the price we paid the HBOS prefs yield
7.0% net. In passing, HBOS reported its interim results during July. The
figures were comforting for holders of the companies' preference shares, but
also, we judge, for its ordinary shareholders, as we are too. In hindsight,
HBOS' capital raising in February was inspired, meaning that the company is,
arguably, overcapitalized, no bad thing for a bank in current circumstances.
The dividend was increased by a prudent, but very real 5.0% (with UK inflation
running at 1.5% annualized). We note it will take 12 years of 5.0% dividend
increases before the yield on HBOS ordinary matches that on its preference
stock. A long wait.
We were equally reassured by Cadbury's interim report, where again the dividend
was increased by 5.0%, from a position of enviable cover. We do not ignore,
though, that underlying sales growth was less than 0.5%. Cadbury is a fine
company and a decent investment, we believe, but investors are going to be
reminded by it and many others, just how difficult it is to generate real growth
in a no-inflation environment. Investors' jaundice toward the 'Old Economy', as
evidenced through the millennium boom, had some validity. Nonetheless, we added
to Cadbury on the worst day in July, with the stock briefly below £4.0, where
the earnings yield exceeded 7.3%. Elsewhere, over the month we added modestly
to our positions in Reuters and Nintendo. Nintendo comforts with 40% of its
market value accounted for by its net cash. Reuters deserves an entire report
or none at all. We are intrigued that its US subsidiary, Instinet, is now
capitalized at $1.2bn and boasts net cash, before other assets, of $960m. The
enterprise value of c$300m seems modest for a company that earned $160m last
year, by no means peak earnings and controls an important strategic position in
the US financial markets. We may well add to our separate position in Instinet,
perhaps as our gesture to Private Capital Management's case for treating beaten
down technology companies as Ben Graham-type value plays.
Fund Manager Launch Date Denominated Currency
Nick Train 22 January 2001 GBP
Year End Dividend Benchmark
31st March Ex-date: June The annual average yield on
Payment: August the 21/2% Consolidated Loan
Stock.
Sedol No Bloomberg
3001710 LTI LN
The Board Management Fees Registered Address
Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% p.a. Lindsell Train Investment Trust
Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 77A High Street
Donald Adamson 10% of annual increase in Brentwood
Michael Lindsell the share price, plus ESSEX DM14 4RR
dividend, above the gross
annual yield of the 21/2%
Consolidated Loan Stock.
Disclaimer
The contents in this document is solely for information purposes only. The
information contained herein does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy
or subscribe any securities or funds in any jurisdiction in which such
distribution is not authorised. Nothing in this document constitutes investment,
legal, tax or other advice and cannot be relied upon in making any investment
decision. Applications to invest in some of the funds must only be made on the
basis of offer documents which may only be available for private circulation.
The information contained in this document is published in good faith and
neither Lindsell Train Limited nor any other person so connected assumes any
responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information as provided.
No representation is made or assurance given that any statements made, views,
projections or forecasts are correct or that objectives will be achieved.
Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in the
Fund. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as
up and are not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future
performance. You may not get back the amount you invested. Foreign exchange
rates may cause the value of investments to go up or down. Investments may be
subject to higher volatility in certain funds and the investment value may fall
suddenly and substantially.
Lindsell Train Limited
35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ
Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499
info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com
Lindsell Train Limited is regulated by the FSA.
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