Monthly Update 09.2004
Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
14 October 2004
The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
As at 30 September 2004
Fund Objective
To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute
value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of
Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5%
Consolidated Loan Stock.
Share Price GBP 100.50
Net Asset Value GBP 109.79
Premium (Discount) (8.5%)
Market Capitalisation GBP 20.1mn
Benchmark (21/2% Con Ann Avg Yield +5.0%) +0.4
Source: Bloomberg; NAV-Lindsell Train. Share Price quoted is
closing mid price. See Benchmark definition.
Performance History (based in GBP) 2004 YTD 2003 2002 2001 2000
Net Asset Value % +15.8 +3.0 -9.6 +3.2 n/a
Share Price % +17.5 -8.6 -19.8 +18.5 n/a
Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Share Price quoted is closing mid price.
Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. With dividends
added back.
** Please note performance data on reports prior to June 2004 did not include
dividends.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and
the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what
they invested.
2003 Performance Jan 03 Feb 03 Mar 03 Apr 03 May 03 Jun 03 Jul 03 Aug 03 Sep 03 Oct 03 Nov 03 Dec 03
Net Asset Value % -3.8 +1.9 -0.6 +1.1 +3.4 +0.5 +2.0 +1.7 -2.7 -0.5 -0.7 +0.9
Share Price % +0.0 +0.5 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 -2.8 -1.1 +2.2 -4.3 +2.2 -10.9 +6.1
2004 Performance Jan 04 Feb 04 Mar 04 Apr 04 May 04 Jun 04 Jul 04 Aug 04 Sep 04 Oct 04 Nov 04 Dec 04
Net Asset Value % +1.8 +3.2 +1.7 +0.8 +0.0 +2.3 -2.2 +4.7 +3.8
Share Price % -2.3 +5.9 -0.6 +0.6 +2.2 +2.7 +0.5 +0.5 +8.6
Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date
22 Jan 2001. With dividends added back.
** Please note performance data on reports prior to June 2004 did not include
dividends.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and
the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what
they invested.
Industry Breakdown % of NAV
Bonds 25.6
Preference Shares 14.0
Equity - Media 7.5
Equity - Banks & Investment Co. 3.5
Equity - Leisure & Ent. 9.9
Equity - Food & Beverage 33.3
Investment Fund 23.7
Cash & Equivalent (17.5)
Total 100.0
Source: Lindsell Train
Top 10 Holdings % of NAV
Glenmorangie A&B 15.3
US Gov Treasury 6.25% 11.5
Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 10.3
Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 9.6
HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 9.5
Barr AG 8.8
21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 8.1
UK Treasury 2.5% 6.0
Cadbury Schweppes 5.7
Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries 5.1
Source: Lindsell Train
Fund Exposure Bonds Prefs Equity Funds Cash % of NAV
UK % 14.1 14.0 47.6 3.8 (18.0) 61.5
USA % 11.5 - 1.8 - 3.4 16.7
Europe (ex UK) % - - - - - -
Japan % - - 4.8 9.6 (2.9) 11.5
Global % - - - 10.3 - 10.3
Total 25.6 14.0 54.2 23.7 (17.5) 100.0
Source: Lindsell Train
Fund Manager's Comments
September was another respectable month for the NAV of your Trust, which stood
on the 1st October at £110.6, up 5.0% from the 27th August, the last trading day
of that month. The NAV has gained nearly 17.0% through the first three quarters
of 2004. Meanwhile, the price of the Trust was up 9.0% in September and is up
18.0% since December 31st 2003.
Mike and I have long aspired to see the NAV surpass £110, however belatedly, -
as some indication that the way we work makes money, as well as just preserves
it during a bear market. Hitting that £110 is gratifying and adding the two
dividends the Trust has paid, amounting to £2.75 per share, improves the return
over the life of the vehicle. Nonetheless, we are conscious that we still trail
our benchmark, the annual yield on the irredeemable gilt, whose level has ticked
up to the equivalent of £118 since the Trust launch in January 2001. We hope we
can gradually hunt that hurdle down.
September saw further strong gains for the Trust in Glenmorangie, as investors
begin to recognise the full strategic value of this asset. At its current market
capitalisation, c£320 million, we no longer believe Glenmorangie is
exceptionally undervalued and that a transaction for control could take place in
the vicinity of this price. However, that judgement does not rule out a higher
eventual valuation and we remain conscious of the rarity value of Glenmorangie
for a major global spirits business. It is arguably the last such opportunity
for as far ahead as one can see - comparable brands are held in firm
private hands or already owned by the majors. We were fortunate enough to be
offered more Glenmorangie shares this month, both 'A' and the
strategically more valuable 'B's, at what we regarded as
attractive levels, so added to the holding. Your Trust now has an investment
worth nearly £3,500,000 in the company, or 16.0% of net assets. In addition,
Lindsell Train Limited, on behalf of all its managed or advisory clients speaks
for over 7.0% of the votes of the company.
Our only other activity over the month also involved a beverage company, Diageo.
Here we built up the position, keen to access the recent final dividend at a
price below £7.00 - which we succeeded in doing. Below that £7.00, Diageo offers
a net historic dividend yield of 4.0%, higher than the net yield on a long-dated
gilt. We think that mismatch in starting interest/dividend flows is wrong,
possibly profoundly so, because we expect Diageo's dividends to continue to grow
at 5.0% per annum or better, as they have in recent years. A study on UK share
buybacks conducted by Morgan Stanley provided some insights for us into the
attractiveness of Diageo as an investment (although MS themselves are no better
than neutral on the shares). Since share buybacks emerged as a feature of the UK
equity market, in 1996, through to December 2003, no British company has bought
back more shares in itself than Diageo. The company has repurchased more than
£7.0 billion of stock, more than Glaxo and BP, for instance, despite their
significantly higher market capitalisations. In the process Diageo has cancelled
over 30.0% of its average market capitalisation since 1996, an incredible
effort. Dividends over the same period have increased by 80.0% and must total in
excess of £6.0 billion. Diageo has, thereby, returned £13 billion of cash, at
least, to its investors over 8 years, compared to its current capitalisation of
£21.7 billion. The real relevance of this history is that there seems no reason
the company won't repeat its largesse over the next decade. Certainly,
its balance sheet is quickly reliquifying, with the sale of part of its General
Mills stake this week. In addition, the company has a fair growth opportunity,
as the demographics of the Western markets shift in favour of spirit consumption
(away from beer and soft drinks) and as the purchasing power of the emerging
economies improves. The opportunity in Diageo has in part been presented by its
being caught up in a general derating of consumer staple stocks around the
world, with profit warnings from Coke, Colgate, Heineken and Unilever prompting
share price falls. Cadbury, still a major holding for the Trust, has also been
hit by similar concerns, although its recent trading update did not constitute a
warning. It remains our view that the cash generative nature of these consumer
branded goods companies means they are better placed to deal with the
deflationary pressures afflicting developed world economies than most other
industries - although they are absolutely not exempt from them. It may
well be, though, that Coke is getting cheap, for the first time in a decade,
with its share price halved and more since the 1998 peak.
The deflationary tenor of the global scene is confirmed, we think by the good
gains this month in our preference share portfolio, which rose by circa 4.0%. UK
investors' yearning for high, safe dividend yield clearly remains unabated,
despite the apparently inflationary implication of record oil and commodity
prices. The truth is bond markets have become positively correlated to commodity
prices, with investors now expecting these rising raw material prices to crimp
demand and profit margins elsewhere in the economy. We agree.
One industry that is to significant degree exempt from the malignity of rising
materials prices is Media. Here, energy makes up a low proportion of COGS, with
working and fixed capital being, from this perspective, reassuringly intangible.
We note preliminary signs of enthusiasm, even mania, returning to the Media
sector, at least as broadly defined by us. The enthusiasm can be seen, for
instance, in the 30.0% gain in Nintendo this year and the 48.0% in Ebay, both
important holdings in our Media Fund. Think about it 'You don't need a tank-full
of gasoline to visit cyberspace!'
You read it here first.
Fund Manager Launch Date Denomination
Nick Train 22 Jan 2001 GBP
Year End Dividend Benchmark
31st Mar Ex Date: June The annual average yield on the 21/2%
Payment: August Consolidated Loan Stock.
The Board Management Fees Registered Address
Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% Lindsell Train Investment Trust
Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 10% of annual increase 77A High Street
Donald Adamson in the share price, plus dividend, Brentwood
Michael Lindsell above the gross annual yield of the 2 ESSEX CM14 4RR
1/2% Consolidated Loan Stock.
ISIN Bloomberg Listing
GB0031977944 LTI LN London Stock Exchange
Disclaimer
This document is intended for use by persons who are authorised by the UK
Financial Services Authority ('FSA') and those who are permitted to receive such
information in the UK. The information contained in this document does not
constitute an offer or invitation to buy or sell any investments. Nothing in
this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. Lindsell Train
and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in this investment. The
value of any investment in securities or funds and the income generated from
them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance cannot
be used as a guide or guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the
original amount you have invested. Changes in foreign exchange rates may cause
the value of your investment to go up or down. Some funds with higher gearing
may be subject to higher volatility and the investment value may change
substantially. The net asset value (NAV) performance of an investment trust is
not the same as its market share price performance.
Issued by Lindsell Train Limited
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
14 Oct 2004 LTL 000-019-3b
Lindsell Train Limited
35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ
Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499
info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com
Lindsell Train Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
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