Monthly Update June 2004
Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
13 July 2004
The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
As at 30 June 2004
Fund Objective
To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value and with a minimum objective to
maintain the real purchasing power of Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated
Loan Stock.
Share Price GBP 91.50
Net Asset Value GBP 103.21
Premium (Discount) (11.3%)
Market Capitalisation GBP 18.3mn
Benchmark (21/2% Con Ann Avg Yield +5.0%) % +0.4
Source: Bloomberg; NAV-Lindsell Train. Share Price
quoted is closing mid price. See Benchmark definition.
Performance History (based in GBP) 2004 YTD 2003 2002 2001 2000
Net Asset Value % +10.2 +3.0 -9.6 +3.2 n/a
Share Price % +8.6 -8.6 -19.8 +18.5 n/a
Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Share Price quoted is closing mid price. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch
date 22 Jan 2001. With dividends added back.
** Please note performance data on reports prior to June 2004 did not include dividends.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and the income from them may go down as well
as up. Investors may not get back what they invested.
2003 Performance Jan 03 Feb 03 Mar 03 Apr 03 May 03 Jun 03 Jul 03 Aug 03 Sep 03 Oct 03 Nov 03 Dec 03
Net Asset Value % -3.8 +1.9 -0.6 +1.1 +3.4 +0.5 +2.0 +1.7 -2.7 -0.5 -0.7 +0.9
Share Price % +0.0 +0.5 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 -2.8 -1.1 +2.2 -4.3 +2.2 -10.9 +6.1
2004 Performance Jan 04 Feb 04 Mar 04 Apr 04 May 04 Jun 04 Jul 04 Aug 04 Sep 04 Oct 04 Nov 04 Dec 04
Net Asset Value % +1.8 +3.2 +1.7 +0.8 +0.0 +2.3
Share Price % -2.3 +5.9 -0.6 +0.6 +2.2 +2.7
Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. With dividends added back.
** Please note performance data on reports prior to June 2004 did not include dividends.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and the income from them may go down as well
as up. Investors may not get back what they invested.
Industry Breakdown % of NAV
Bonds 26.7
Preference Shares 14.1
Equity - Media 9.3
Equity - Banks & Investment Co. 4.0
Equity - Leisure & Ent. 10.1
Equity - Food & Beverage 27.0
Investment Fund 24.7
Cash & Equivalent (15.9)
Total 100.0
Source: Lindsell Train
Top 10 Holdings % of NAV
US Gov Treasury 6.25 12.2
Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 11.0
Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 9.9
HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 9.5
Barr AG 8.8
Glenmorangie A&B 8.5
21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 8.3
Cadbury Schweppes 6.8
UK Treasury 2.5% 6.2
Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries 5.3
Source: Lindsell Train
Fund Exposure Bonds Prefs Equity Funds Cash % of NAV
UK % 14.5 14.1 43.3 3.8 (15.7) 60.0
USA % 12.2 - 2.2 11.0 2.9 28.3
Europe (ex UK) % - - - - - -
Japan % - - 4.9 9.9 (3.1) 11.7
Total 26.7 14.1 50.4 24.7 (15.9) 100.0
Source: Lindsell Train
*FTSE Future Notional Value (2.0)%
Fund Manager's Comments
The Company owns two investments in Japan, Nintendo and its holding in the Lindsell Train Japan Fund. We have committed
approximately 15% of the Trust to both for no aggregate reward so far. This may be changing. Nintendo's price is up 17%
in the last three months. We have written extensively on Nintendo in the past (see Oct 02 & Oct 03 monthly reports),
describing the investment case for the business, which remains much the same today. What has changed is the management's
dividend policy. From this year they plan to pay 50% of Nintendo's net profits as dividends. If profits rise in
line with company estimates the dividend should rise 90%. This means the shares yield 2.3%, only 0.1% lower than Japan's
largest electric utility, Tokyo Electric Power. At the same time, the company signalled that it may pay out more of its
earnings in future years and renewed its commitment to buying back shares, a policy first implemented in 2002/3. What
has encouraged this change in policy? I visited Nintendo in Kyoto to find out. The official response is confidence in
the forthcoming new product launches in 2004 and 2005, which Nintendo hopes will redefine and reinvigorate the gaming
experience for its customers. We are sure that this is only part of the reason. Now that Nintendo's shareholder register
is increasingly dominated by portfolio, rather than relationship, investors the management must feel more pressure to
better manage their retained earnings than in the past. Nintendo's return on assets has halved from 12% to 6% over the
last 10 years, entirely caused by a doubling of the asset base, rather than any decline in
profits. Paying out more free cash flow as dividends is a step in the right direction but one that may not solve the
problem, because retaining even 50% of net profits may still expand Nintendo's assets by approximately 4% per annum. It
does not even begin to address the issue of the cash pile that today represents 50% of Nintendo's market capitalisation.
We think the company is feeling its way through a progressive change in policy that is targeted at raising ROA against
the backdrop of improving revenues. Nintendo remains one of our most favoured equities combining an exceptional business
with these potential significant changes to shareholder returns. 4% of the Funds net assets are invested directly in it
and a further 2.5% indirectly though the holdings in the Lindsell Train Media and Japan Funds.
The Lindsell Train Japan Fund has had a better 6 months. It needed to following its poor showing in the second half of
2003. We still believe that our best opportunity to make money in Japan for our investors lies in the three interlinked
strategies in the Fund. We pursue a long/ short equity strategy that seeks to profit from changes in the pricing of
shares caused by the changing shape of ownership in the market. At the same time there are two other strategies aimed at
exploiting weakness in the Japanese long-term bond market and the Yen, both events which we predict and both events that
in themselves will accelerate the changes we expect in the stock market. With the benefit of hindsight, we
underestimated the rally in the equity market in 2003. Now there are signs that our strategy is working better. Over 40%
of the companies' in our long portfolio are raising dividend payouts materially this year, in order to address the issue
of improving returns on retained earnings, in the same way as Nintendo. As a result our long positions have performed
well and have underpinned the Fund's better performance so far this year, up 9.2% year to date. Our short portfolio,
where we currently see the best opportunity to make money, has not helped us yet, nor has the Yen, which remains strong.
On the other hand, Japanese bond yields bottomed last year and have began a long ascent that remains in the foothills,
we think. The companies in our short portfolio tend to have low margins, are capital intensive,
cyclical and heavily leveraged where ownership has been dominated by relationship investors. To compound their lack of
appeal, most have dividend yields lower than the market (0.9%). In a cyclical upturn, which some of these companies have
experienced thanks to strong exports, their increased profits have tended to be shared between new capital expenditure
and the bankers with precious little left for shareholders. In the past when such cyclical companies share registers
were dominated by their bankers and their suppliers of capital equipment these shareholders probably valued the ongoing
business more highly than a dividend stream. Now, as is increasingly the case, such companies' dominant shareholders are
becoming portfolio investors. For this new constituency of investors, returns on invested capital, especially tangible
returns are all that matter. Ultimately we do not expect any of the companies in our short portfolio to be able to
deliver such tangible returns, which is why we think their share prices are increasingly vulnerable, buoyed up by a
cyclical bounce in export volumes.
The Trust's NAV advanced 3.1% (including the dividend) over the latest quarter, helped by the performance of Nintendo,
Glenmorangie (up 18%), Cadbury (up 12%), Reed Elsevier (up 12%) and Lindsell Train (up 14%). The combination of these
encouraging moves from some our major equity holdings would have led to an even better performance were it not for the
fall in our bonds which lost 5% of value, giving back most of what they gained in the first
quarter.
Fund Manager Launch Date Denomination
Nick Train 22 Jan 2001 GBP
Year End Dividend Benchmark
31st Mar Ex Date: June The annual average yield on the 21/2%
Payment: August Consolidated Loan Stock.
The Board Management Fees Registered Address
Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% Lindsell Train Investment Trust
Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 10% of annual increase 77A High Street
Donald Adamson in the share price, plus dividend, Brentwood
Michael Lindsell above the gross annual yield of the 2 ESSEX CM14 4RR
1/2% Consolidated Loan Stock.
ISIN Bloomberg
GB0031977944 LTI LN
Disclaimer
This document is intended for use by persons who are authorised by the UK Financial Services Authority ('FSA') and those
who are permitted to receive such information in the UK. The information contained in this document does not constitute
an offer or invitation to buy or sell any investments. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or
other advice. Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in this investment.
The value of any investment in securities or funds and the income generated from them may go down as well as up and are
not guaranteed. Past performance cannot be used as a guide or guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the
original amount you have invested. Changes in foreign exchange rates may cause the value of your investment to go up or
down. Some funds with higher gearing may be subject to higher volatility and the investment value may change
substantially. The net asset value (NAV) performance of an investment trust is not the same as its market share price
performance.
Issued by Lindsell Train Limited
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
17 Jun 2004 LTL 000-017-9b
Lindsell Train Limited
35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ
Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499
info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com
Lindsell Train Limited is authorised and regulated by the
Financial Services Authority.
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