Monthly Update October 2002

Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC 13 November 2002 The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC As at 31st October 2002 Fund Objective To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock. Share Price GBP 93.00 Net Asset Value GBP 94.10 Discount (Premium) 1.2% Market Capitalisation GBP 18.6mn Source: Bloomberg; NAV - LTL Performance (based in GBP) Oct Sep Aug YTD Since Launch NAV -1.7% -1.1% +3.6% -8.8% -5.9% Share Price +4.5% -2.7% -5.2% -21.5% -7.0% Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Top 10 Holdings Industry Breakdown % NAV % NAV US Gov Treasury 6.25% 15.5 Bonds 37.1 Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 13.0 Preference Shares 13.1 Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 12.5 Media 7.6 US Gov Treasury IL 3.875% 9.0 Banks & Investment Co. 7.0 HBOS 6.125% Non Cum 7.6 Leisure & Tourism 7.5 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 7.1 Food & Beverage 16.3 Cadbury Schweppes 5.9 Investment Fund 25.5 UK Treasury 2.5% 5.5 Cash & Equivalent (14.1) HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 5.5 Total 100.0 Barr (AG) 5.4 Geographical Breakdown Currency Exposure % NAV % NAV Bonds 37.1 USD 53.0 UK 12.6 JPY (0.2) US 24.4 EUR 2.2 Preference 13.1 GBP 45.0 Shares 38.4 Total 100.0 Equities UK 28.7 US 3.9 Japan 3.6 Europe 2.2 25.5 Funds LT Japan 13.0 LT Global Media 12.5 (14.1) Cash & Equivalent Total 100.0 Fund Manager's Comments Earlier this month we added to our position in Nintendo. At the end of the month our direct holding in the stock was 3.8% of NAV. Our effective exposure to it was higher at 5.3% when we include, on a see-through basis, the weightings held in the stock by both the Lindsell Train funds. This makes it our second biggest equity holding and underlines the strategic importance of the position for the Fund. As the stock has fallen by 49% this year, allowing us to accumulate these positions, it is worth reviewing the investment case for it in some detail. Nintendo's business is the creation of imaginative and amusing games that are fun to play. They have been in this business for longer than you think 113 years. At the time they specialised in card games. Today they specialise in video games played on consoles, Game Boy Advance (a hand-held device) and Game Cube (plugged into the TV). This console 'hardware' is commissioned by Nintendo but produced by others. Nintendo has no factories, manufacturing labour and no costly capital expenditure. In fact Nintendo only employs 3,067 people worldwide. Nintendo's value added is in producing the 'software', the games themselves, which are sold as cartridges or compact discs and are played using the hardware. Nintendo's creative team has an enviable record of developing some of the best selling software in the industry. Most of the software is developed around cartoon characters such as 'Mario' or 'Pokemon' whose allure and recognition have created a following amongst game players that serves to perpetuate and reinforce sales though customer loyalty. Developing game software can be highly profitable if a sufficient number of games are sold. Development and marketing costs are fixed and CD production costs are variable but a small proportion of the revenues. Almost all other game software companies stick to producing software for consoles sold by Nintendo, Sony (Playstation 1 or 2) or Microsoft (XBox). For this they pay a hefty royalty to the consol maker which adds to their costs and reduces their profitably. Average operating profit margins for these companies (US and Japanese averaged over the last 10 years) is less than 10% versus 23% for Nintendo. The reason why Nintendo's share price has fallen so much this year relates to concern about the sales of the Game Cube hardware and software. At the moment Nintendo has sold approximately 7m Game Cube consoles, approximately the same as Xbox and only one seventh of Sony's approximately 35mn Playstation 2's (Sony had a 1 year head start). Being so far behind the market leader not only limits sales of Nintendo software, as it can only be played on Nintendo hardware, but also reduces the potential for royalties from other software companies whose development activities are inevitably orientated towards the platform with the larger installed base. We think that these concerns are misplaced and are giving us a good opportunity to buy the shares at unusually cheap prices. We do not think its necessary for Nintendo to dominate the consol market to succeed as a business. After all the company made more money than Sony with its sales of the old consol (N64) despite having a third of its market share. Importantly Nintendo monopolises the hand held market with Game Boy Advance, which provides the company with the richest stream of earnings from any of its products. We would expect Nintendo to view Game Cube as a success so long as it outsold N64's 32mn units. It is early days and we may yet see evidence that Nintendo's creative software itself generates further sales of hardware as has occurred in the past. If it becomes obvious that Nintendo will fail to achieve this target the company may withdraw from the consol market choosing instead to develop software for other platforms. This is because hardware, in its broadest sense just facilitates distribution. Ultimately Nintendo does not need it. Without it the company would not make the same high margins (as Nintendo would have to pay royalties to another console maker) but if overall profits were higher because Nintendo products were available to a far wider customer base using alternative distribution channels the management are bound to consider it. Cost of withdrawal would amount to writing off existing inventory (probably minimal) and writing off any development costs for the next generation consol. As planning for this will begin most likely in 2003/2004 the company will be forced to assess the success or other wise of the consol platform at that point. What really makes a difference for this company is its ability to generate successful software. In our analysis we consider this to be the case and believe that Nintendo has the capacity to continue to grow with the industry whatever the outcome discussed above. Even without growth the stock is cheap. The average free cash flow, subtracting interest earned from its cash pile, over the last 10 years was Y473. The share price was at the end of October Y11,800, of which approximately Y6,650 was represented by cash in the balance sheet, leaving the operating business worth Y5,150. Hence Nintendo trades on a 9% free cash flow yield, which is a highly attractive valuation anywhere in the world let alone in Japan where the discount rate tends to be lower. We might expect Nintendo to trade at a lower free cash flow yield than the bond given its growth characteristics, which could conservatively triple or more the value of the operating business. The analysis of Nintendo would not be complete without some discussion about the cash pile. It will soon amount to Y1tn. Last year it generated returns of approximately 2.5% p.a. yet the operating business returned 21%. Overall investor's returns are constrained because of it, especially return on equity that has fallen from 22% in 1993 to 11% today. In reality the Company will always retain some cash in order to have the ready resources to drawn upon in the event of new innovations threatening its business. The rest is surplus to requirements. We suspect that the management is debating how best to deploy its surplus cash. One convenient way would be to use it to buy their own shares held by commercial banks as cross-shareholdings. If they were then cancelled it would be highly accretive to shareholders and would substantially boost ongoing investor returns. In due course the management will be forced to show their hand as the problem will not go away. If they manage this as well as they have their operating business over the last 20 years it should be worth waiting for. Fund Manager Launch Date Denominated Currency Nick Train 22 January 2001 GBP Year End Dividend Benchmark 31st March Ex-date: June The annual average yield on the 2 Payment: August 1/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Sedol No Bloomberg 3001710 LTI LN The Board Management Fees Registered Address Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% p.a. Lindsell Train Investment Trust Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 10% of annual 77A High Street Donald Adamson increase in the share price, plus dividend, Brentwood Michael Lindsell above the gross annual yield of ESSEX DM14 4RR the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Disclaimer The contents in this document is solely for information purposes only. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or subscribe any securities or funds in any jurisdiction in which such distribution is not authorised. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice and cannot be relied upon in making any investment decision. Applications to invest in some of the funds must only be made on the basis of offer documents which may only be available for private circulation. The information contained in this document is published in good faith and neither Lindsell Train Limited nor any other person so connected assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information as provided. No representation is made or assurance given that any statements made, views, projections or forecasts are correct or that objectives will be achieved. Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in the Fund. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the amount you invested. Foreign exchange rates may cause the value of investments to go up or down. Investments may be subject to higher volatility in certain funds and the investment value may fall suddenly and substantially. Lindsell Train Limited 35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499 info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com Lindsell Train Limited is regulated by the FSA. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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