Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
18 January 2005
The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
As at 31st December 2004
Fund Objective
To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute
value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of
Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5%
Consolidated Loan Stock.
Share Price GBP 101.50
Net Asset Value GBP 115.41
Premium (Discount) (12.1%)
Market Capitalisation GBP 20.3mn
Benchmark (21/2% Con Ann Avg Yield +4.7%) +0.4
Source: Bloomberg; NAV-Lindsell Train. Share Price
quoted is closing mid price. See Benchmark definition.
Performance History (based in GBP) 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
Net Asset Value % +22.9 +3.5 -9.6 +3.2 n/a
Share Price % +20.1 -8.4 -19.8 +18.5 n/a
Source: S&P Micropal. Based in GBP. Performance years listed Jan - Dec.
Launch date 22 Jan 2001. With dividends reinvested.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and
the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what
they invested.
2003 Performance Jan 03 Feb 03 Mar 03 Apr 03 May 03 Jun 03 Jul 03 Aug 03 Sep 03 Oct 03 Nov 03 Dec 03
Net Asset Value % -3.8 +1.9 -2.0 +2.0 +4.0 +0.9 +2.7 +1.0 -2.7 -0.5 -0.7 +1.0
Share Price % +0.5 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 -2.5 -1.1 +2.2 -4.3 +2.3 -11.0 +6.2
2004 Performance Jan 04 Feb 04 Mar 04 Apr 04 May 04 Jun 04 Jul 04 Aug 04 Sep 04 Oct 04 Nov 04 Dec 04
Net Asset Value % +1.8 +3.3 +0.3 +2.3 -0.1 +2.5 -2.0 +4.8 +3.8 +0.7* +1.0* +2.7*
Share Price % -2.3 +6.0 -0.6 +0.6 +2.3 +3.2 +0.5 +0.5 +8.6 +3.0 -1.9 -0.8
Source: S&P Micropal unless otherwise indicated. Based in GBP. Performance years
listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. With dividends reinvested. *Source:
Lindsell Train Limited.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and
the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what
they invested.
Industry Breakdown % of NAV
Bonds 24.4
Preference Shares 14.4
Equity - Media 8.3
Equity - Banks & Investment Co. 3.5
Equity - Leisure & Ent. 10.4
Equity - Food & Beverage 33.4
Investment Fund 22.4
Cash & Equivalent (16.8)
Total 100.0
Source: Lindsell Train
Top 10 Holdings % of NAV
Glenmorangie A&B 14.2
US Gov Treasury 6.25% 10.4
Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 9.9
HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 9.8
Barr AG 9.4
Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 8.4
21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 8.0
Cadbury Schweppes 6.2
Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries 6.1
UK Treasury 2.5% 6.0
Source: Lindsell Train
Fund Exposure Bonds Prefs Equity Funds Cash % of NAV
UK % 14.0 14.4 49.4 4.1 (16.7) 65.2
USA % 10.4 - 1.8 - 3.3 15.5
Europe (ex UK) % - - - - - -
Japan % - - 4.4 8.4 (3.4) 9.4
Global % - - - 9.9 - 9.9
Total 24.4 14.4 55.6 22.4 (16.8) 100.0
Source: Lindsell Train
Fund Manager's Comments
The NAV advanced a further 2.7% in December ending the year at its highest
point, 22.9% above that of a year earlier.+ Even though equity markets picked up
somewhat in the last quarter we managed to keep pace with their performance even
though we had just 59% invested directly. In other words our bond, preference
shares and Fund holdings all contributed. Nonetheless, it was the performance of
our holding in Wolverhampton and Dudley Breweries ('Wolves') this month, rising
20% (22% including the final dividend) that contributed most to the performance.
The rise in price followed good results and the announcement that it had
acquired Burtonwood Brewery for £119m plus £36m in assumed debt. This
acquisition valued Burtonwood's pub properties at £350,000 per pub as compared
to an implied value of approximately £750,000 per pub for Wolves's own
properties. On this basis the deal looks highly accretive. We have always
thought that most investors' categorisation as Wolves as a 'value' stock
contradicted its extraordinary record of increasing dividends annually for 29
years by at least 10% per annum. Now following on from this month's price gains
Wolves trades at a yield of 3.2% only a 6.0% yield premium to the market at 3.0%
suggesting that investors have for the moment revised their 'value' label.
There were two other notable portfolio events this month. One was a hint of
weakness of Sterling, the other the offer by HBOS for the remainder of the
Halifax 6.125% preference shares they do not already own. While we offer no
short-term prediction about the future direction of the exchange rate we
continue to view Sterling as an expensive currency held up in the main by its
high nominal interest rates. These have been necessary to restrain demand for
borrowed money secured on rising house prices. While house prices rise the
borrowing seems prudent, but should house prices fall and with it the value of
collateral, not only might the borrowing stop but also prior judgements on the
prudence of leverage may have to be revised, causing consumer confidence to fall
and a curtailment of spending. If this indeed occurred the interest rate support
for sterling could evaporate rather quickly, and with it the value of the
currency. The recent stagnation of house prices and the lower levels of housing
turnover all point to a change in the environment. To the extent that 35% of the
Trust is in un-hedged non-sterling assets, predominantly the US dollar, any
future weakness would be accretive to the Trust's NAV.
HBOS's offer to acquire the minorities of one of its preference shares helps to
validate our long-standing interest in them. Like us, HBOS clearly thinks paying
an interest rate on preference capital at current rates of approximately 6% is
too generous. However, we think HBOS's current offer, equivalent to a net
redemption yield of 5.5%, undervalues the shares. In rationalising the offer
price, HBOS compares it to the yield on gilt with an equivalent maturity, yet in
doing so, the company compares a gross and net income steam. We agree that the
value of the HBOS preference shares should be benchmarked off government debt
and should yield more than such a gilt, to account for the increased risk of
investing in a corporate rather than government-backed issue. In this case
though, we believe HBOS is effectively comparing a gross gilt redemption yield
of 4.5% to a grossed up preference dividend yield of 6.9%. We think this 2.4%
gap is too high a yield premium, for an issue from an A+ rated bank of HBOS's
stature. What the offer does do is highlight the value in the other irredeemable
preference shares we hold in HBOS, the 9.25% whose current equivalent grossed up
yield is even higher at 7.4%. It is fortunate that of the two holdings, we have
a bigger, 10% weighting, in that issue.
+ Including the dividend of £1.45 per share paid in July.
Fund Manager Launch Date Denomination
Nick Train 22 Jan 2001 GBP
Year End Dividend Benchmark
31st Mar Ex Date: June The annual average yield on the 21/2%
Payment: August Consolidated Loan Stock.
The Board Management Fees Registered Address
Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% Lindsell Train Investment Trust
Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 10% of annual increase 77A High Street
Donald Adamson in the share price, plus dividend, Brentwood
Michael Lindsell above the gross annual yield of the 2 ESSEX CM14 4RR
1/2% Consolidated Loan Stock.
ISIN Bloomberg Listing
GB0031977944 LTI LN London Stock Exchange
Disclaimer
This document is intended for use by persons who are authorised by the UK
Financial Services Authority ('FSA') and those who are permitted to receive such
information in the UK. The information contained in this document does not
constitute an offer or invitation to buy or sell any investments. Nothing in
this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. Lindsell Train
and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in this investment.
The value of any investment in securities or funds and the income generated from
them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance cannot
be used as a guide or guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the
original amount you have invested. Changes in foreign exchange rates may cause
the value of your investment to go up or down. Some funds with higher gearing
may be subject to higher volatility and the investment value may change
substantially. The net asset value (NAV) performance of an investment trust is
not the same as its market share price performance.
Issued by Lindsell Train Limited
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
19 Jan 2005 LTL 000-023-0b
Lindsell Train Limited
35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ
Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499
info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com
Lindsell Train Limited is authorised and regulated by the
Financial Services Authority.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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