Monthly Update
Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
12 July 2006
The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
As at 30 June 2006
Fund Objective
To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value and with a minimum objective to
maintain the real purchasing power of Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5%
Consolidated Loan Stock.
Net Asset Value GBP 135.14
Share Price GBP 127.00
Premium (Discount) (6.0%)
Market Capitalisation GBP 25.4mn
Benchmark (21/2% Con Ann Avg Yield +4.4%) +0.4
Source: Bloomberg; NAV-Lindsell Train. Share Price
quoted is closing mid price. See Benchmark definition.
Performance History (based in 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 YTD 2006
GBP)
Net Asset Value TR% +3.2 -9.6 +3.1 +23.7 +16.5 +1.1
Share Price TR% +18.5 -19.8 -8.7 +20.6 +27.5 -1.0
Source: LTL and S&P Micropal. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. TR=Total Return (with
dividends reinvested) *Source: Lindsell Train Ltd. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of
units and the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what they invested.
2005 Performance Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Net Asset Value TR% +1.4 +0.3 +1.7 +0.2 +3.4 +2.9 +0.0 +0.2 +1.0 -1.5 +2.3* +2.9
Share Price TR% +8.6 +3.5 -3.4 +1.8 +2.6 +9.3 +0.4 -2.3 +2.4 -3.9 +1.2 +4.0
Source: LTL and S&P Micropal unless otherwise indicated. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001.
TR=Total Return (with dividends reinvested) *Source: Lindsell Train Ltd.
2006 Performance Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Net Asset Value TR% +0.9 +1.9 +1.2 -1.8 -2.0 +1.8
Share Price TR% -3.0 +7.5 +1.5 +3.4 -1.5 -2.6
Source: LTL and S&P Micropal unless otherwise indicated. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001.
TR=Total Return (with dividends reinvested) *Source: Lindsell Train Ltd.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and the income from them may go down as well
as up. Investors may not get back what they invested.
Industry Breakdown % of NAV
Bonds 19.5
Preference Shares 13.6
Equity - Media 12.3
Equity - Banks & Investment Co. 6.6
Equity - Leisure & Ent. 11.4
Equity - Food & Beverage 28.4
Equity - Consumer Goods 1.7
Investment Fund 20.4
Cash & Equivalent (13.9)
Total 100.0
Source: Lindsell Train
Top 10 Holdings % of NAV
Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 10.6
HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 10.5
Barr AG 10.4
Diageo 7.8
Cadbury Schweppes 7.5
US Gov Treasury 6.25% 7.4
21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 6.9
Lindsell Train Ltd 6.6
Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries 6.0
Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 5.5
Source: Lindsell Train
Fund Exposure Bonds Prefs Equity Funds Cash % of NAV
UK % 12.1 13.6 49.3 4.3 (14.0) 65.3
USA % 7.4 - 1.3 - 5.2 13.9
Europe (ex UK) % - - 4.4 - (2.5) 1.9
Japan % - - 5.4 5.5 (2.6) 8.3
Global % - - - 10.6 - 10.6
Total 19.5 13.6 60.4 20.4 (13.9) 100.0
Source: Lindsell
Train
Fund Manager's Comments
The Trust's performance faltered in the first quarter of its new financial year with the net asset value falling by 2%.
Equity markets in general did worse falling by 7% (MSCI Index in Sterling). Government bonds continued their downward
trajectory both in the USA and UK in response to the global tightening of monetary policy, falling by 4% and the
preference shares dropped by more, 6%. Although some equities fell in line with the markets others proved resilient,
notably AG Barr and Nintendo, which rose 7% and 9% respectively. Two other big holdings, Wolverhampton and Dudley
Breweries and Diageo were unchanged. The Japan Fund, reversing some of its poor performance in 2005, rose 7%. We have
been particularly inactive over the quarter, even by our standards, as bonds appear too low to sell at current prices
and our selected equities not cheap enough to buy. Although commodity prices, in general, have retreated from the heady
levels of earlier this year (see the May monthly review) it is notable that the price of oil is just 2% below its peak
in early May. The concern is that a far greater deceleration of the world economy is needed before oil prices are able
to stabilise or fall. What induces that slowdown will probably be a combination of tighter monetary policy and the
deleterious effect of high oil prices and higher interest rates on demand. There are now some obvious examples of
companies (e.g. airlines and tyre manufacturers) that are particularly exposed to oil input costs whose profit margins
have been hit badly just recently. The effect is likely to spread. Also as time passes the full burden of rising oil
prices and interest rates will likely force changes in consumer spending patterns to the detriment of overall household
consumption. This combination of rising input costs and slower demand growth should dent overall corporate
profitability. The warning sign will be a rise in credit spreads (the difference between the yield on AAA government
debt, for instance, issued by the USA and UK governments and the debt of companies and less highly-rated nations,
especially emerging markets.). Thus far credit spreads remain relatively low, signalling little distress. The JP Morgan
Emerging Market spread over sovereign issues is approximately 2%, just above the low, versus highs of 10% in 2002 and
2003. If profits fall, we would expect spreads to widen once again.
The exceptionally low level of credit spreads has been a boon to the private equity industry as investments in
businesses able to generate ample short term cash flow combined with greater than normal leverage has vastly improved
returns on investment. As a result investor capital in search of such opportunities is so plentiful that there are
increasing instances of private equity groups bidding for quoted equity businesses. AB Ports is but the latest example.
This activity has helped inflate the transaction value of businesses in the quoted market thus adding support to its
overall level.
Even though it has been suggested that such private equity activity is crowding out genuine corporate buyers we were
pleasantly surprised by the relatively high sales values recorded on the consumer healthcare businesses of Boots last
year and Pfizer last month. Both contained some important brands, Strepsil Lozenges and Listerine mouthwashes, and both
were sold to industry buyers, Reckitt Benckiser and Johnson & Johnson at 3.7x and 4.3x sales respectively. It would be
hard to imagine that private equity groups were not involved in the bidding process at some stage. What it does
reinforce is what a well timed purchase Cadbury made of Adams confectionary, which included Hall's lozenges and
other consumer brands, back in 2003 at just 2.2x sales.
What are the implications of rising credit spreads and falling corporate profitably? Declining corporate earnings are
likely to negatively affect the market value of most corporations and rising funding costs will lessen the projected
returns from private equity investments, causing investor activity to fall. We would hope our companies are less
affected as earnings should remain relatively stable and those businesses that fund with debt do so only prudently.
However, crucial to the valuation of our companies will be the behaviour of the long-term government bond market.
Slower economic growth, declining profits and a flight to quality should be positive for government bond prices. Should
such prices rise, would the fall in yields have the effect of lowering the implied discount rate for valuing the
far-out cash flows of the type of businesses we own, thus increasing their market value? We think it might, simply
because the quality and longevity of the cash flows are more analogous to the guaranteed income from a government bond
rather than the cyclical income from less predicable businesses whose cash flows should, we think, be discounted at a
rate comparable to higher yielding corporate issues.
Fund Manager Launch Date Denomination
Nick Train 22 Jan 2001 GBP
Year End Dividend Benchmark
31 Mar Ex Date: June The annual average yield on the 21/2%
Payment: August Consolidated Loan Stock.
The Board Management Fees Registered Address
Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% Lindsell Train Investment Trust
Donald Adamson Performance Fee: 10% of annual increase Springfield Lodge, Colchester Road
Dominic Caldecott in the share price, plus dividend, Chelmsford
Michael Mackenzie above the gross annual yield of the 2 ESSEX CM2 5PW
1/2% Consolidated Loan Stock.
ISIN Secretary Listing
GB0031977944 Phoenix Administration Services Limited London Stock Exchange
Bloomberg
LTI LN
Disclaimer
This document is intended for use by persons who are authorised by the UK Financial Services Authority ('FSA') and those
who are permitted to receive such information in the UK. The information contained in this
document does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or sell any investments. Nothing in this document
constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an
interest in this investment.
The value of any investment in securities or funds and the income generated from them may go down as well as up and are
not guaranteed. Past performance cannot be used as a guide or guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the
original amount you have invested. Changes in foreign exchange rates may cause the value of your investment to go up or
down. Some funds with higher gearing may be subject to higher volatility and the investment value may change
substantially. The net asset value (NAV) performance of an investment trust is not the same as its market share price
performance.
Issued by Lindsell Train Limited
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
12 Jul 2006 LTL 000-037-7b
Lindsell Train Limited
35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ
Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499
enquiry@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com
Lindsell Train Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
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