Monthly Update
Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
14 June 2005
The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
As at 31st May 2005
Fund Objective
To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute
value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of
Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5%
Consolidated Loan Stock.
Share Price GBP 115.50
Net Asset Value GBP 123.75
Premium (Discount) (6.7%)
Market Capitalisation GBP 23.1mn
Benchmark (21/2% Con Ann Avg Yield +4.7%) +0.4
Source: Bloomberg; NAV-Lindsell Train. Share Price
quoted is closing mid price. See Benchmark definition.
Performance History (based in 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 YTD 2005
GBP)
Net Asset Value % n/a +3.2 -9.6 +3.1 +23.7 +7.5
Share Price % n/a +18.5 -19.8 -8.7 +20.6 +14.2
Source: S&P Micropal. Based in GBP. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch
date 22 Jan 2001. With dividends reinvested.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and
the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what
they invested.
2004 Performance Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Net Asset Value % +1.8 +3.3 +0.3 +2.3 -0.1 +2.1 -2.0 +4.8 +3.8 +1.4* +0.0* +3.7
Share Price % -2.3 +6.0 -0.6 +0.6 +2.3 +2.7 +0.5 +0.5 +8.6 +3.0 -1.9 +0.0
Source: S&P Micropal unless otherwise indicated. Based in GBP. Performance years
listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. With dividends reinvested. *Source:
Lindsell Train Limited.
2005 Performance Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Net Asset Value % +1.4 +0.3 +1.7 +0.8 +3.0 - - - - - - -
Share Price % +8.9 +3.6 -3.5 +1.8 +2.7 - - - - - - -
Source: S&P Micropal unless otherwise indicated. Based in GBP. Performance years
listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. With dividends reinvested. *Source:
Lindsell Train Limited.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and
the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what
they invested.
Industry Breakdown % of NAV
Bonds 24.2
Preference Shares 13.0
Equity - Media 8.5
Equity - Banks & Investment Co. 4.0
Equity - Leisure & Ent. 9.4
Equity - Food & Beverage 25.9
Investment Fund 21.9
Cash & Equivalent (6.9)
Total 100.0
Source: Lindsell Train
Top 10 Holdings % of NAV
US Gov Treasury 6.25% 11.0
Barr AG 10.6
Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 9.4
HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 8.7
Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 8.3
21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 7.7
Cadbury Schweppes 7.6
Diageo 6.2
Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries 5.7
UK Treasury 2.5% 5.7
Source: Lindsell Train
Fund Exposure Bonds Prefs Equity Funds Cash % of NAV
UK % 13.3 13.0 41.3 4.2 (7.3) 64.5
USA % 10.9 - 1.4 - 3.7 16.0
Europe (ex UK) % - - 1.4 - (0.2) 1.2
Japan % - - 3.7 8.3 (3.1) 8.9
Global % - - - 9.4 - 9.4
Total 24.2 13.0 47.8 21.9 (6.9) 100.0
Source: Lindsell
Train
Fund Manager's Comments
The NAV of the Company rose 4.5% during May, assisted by favourable trends in
currencies, bonds and equities. The impact of recent performance on longer term
returns can be seen in the table below.
The accompanying performance data from HSBC's Investment Trust service
illustrates the total returns delivered by your Trust at NAV level over the past
6, 12 and 36 months. (We include the return for Lindsell Trains' other
Investment Trust mandate, Finsbury Growth and Income Trust, for comparison).
HSBC Daily List as at 10 Jun 6m 12m 3Y
2005
(NAV Total Return)
Global Overseas/Growth
Lindsell Train Investment Trust +11% +23% +22%
Rank in Peer Group 6/29 3/29% 6/28
FTSE All Share +7% +12% +4%
FTSE World ex.UK +8% +11% +0%
UK Income Growth
Finsbury Growth & Income Trust +12% +26% +28%
Rank in Peer Group 2/16 1/16 1/16
FTSE All Share +7% +12% +4%
Source: HSBC
LTIT has outperformed the FT All-Share by 18.0% over the past three years and
the World x UK Equity Index by 22.0%. This performance is enough to leave the
Trust placed 6/28 competing vehicles, or in the top quartile. Over one year LTIT
is 3rd equal in the same group.
These returns are now somewhat ahead of the Company's long term
Benchmark, the annual average yield on the irredeemable gilt. We hope to pull
further ahead of this benchmark in due course.
It is important to note that your Trust's return has been achieved
despite taking very much less equity risk than many of its peer group.
As ever, our investment challenge is to establish when taking greater amounts of
equity risk becomes warranted.
We added a new equity to the trust last month, for the first time this year. The
stock is Heineken Holdings (not Heineken NV).
Heineken is a terrific business, with an exceptional brand (Heineken itself, of
course) at its heart. The company has a Return to its Equity of 16.0% and has
grown its dividend from 16.0c in 1996 to 40.0c to December 2004. The balance
sheet is conservative, certainly relative to the security of the cash flows,
with interest cover of over 7.0x for 2005.
However, Heineken has not been a rewarding investment in recent years. Heineken
shares trade at 1998 levels and c40.0% below the 2000 peak. There are three
reasons we see for this poor return. First, beer consumption and pricing in
Heineken's home markets of Western Europe have been difficult, with
operating profits falling 11.0% here since 2002. The demographics of an aging
European population are most unhelpful. Next, the company is exposed to the US
Dollar, with a substantial export business to the US and Dollar denominated
business in many other regions. Profits from the Americas have more than halved
since 2002, with the bear market in the Dollar a primary factor. Finally, the
company has been involved in an acquisition programme that is expensive and,
possibly, ill conceived. Heineken has been competing with SAB/Miller and
Interbrew to acquire emerging market brewing assets. This has resulted in high
prices being given and a dilution of the profit contribution that the premium
Heineken brand makes to the Group as a whole.
Taking these concerns in turn, we see no end to the competitive pressures in
Western Europe, indeed, the experience of Kirin in Japan suggests that
conditions could deteriorate further. However, it is possible that the Euro has
peaked against the US Dollar and Heineken's share price correlation to
the Dollar/Euro has been exact. On the acquisition policy, we are prepared to
accept the company's argument that the purchase of local brands and
distribution acts as a kind of 'Trojan Horse', which opens up
these markets to an eventual colonisation by the Heineken brand.
In conclusion, though, we believe the valuation of Heineken equity today
compensates us for these uncertainties. We have accessed the shares on a P/E of
14x, or an earnings yield of over 7.0%, despite the very depressed US profits.
The shares tradeon an EV/Revenues ratio of c1.2x, compared to Interbrew, 1.6x,
SAB/Miller, 1.9x and Anheuser Busch 2.4x (although Kirin trades at 1.0x this
ratio). We believe the benefits of owning a piece of the Heineken brand over the
next ten years are not fairly captured by these ratings and that, in particular,
during a period of a strong US Dollar and emerging market economic growth, the
shares could do very well indeed.
We have bought shares in Heineken Holdings, which is the vehicle the Heineken
family uses to control the company. The shares are equivalent to the Heineken NV
stock in economic terms, however, because they are somewhat illiquid and are not
part of the European benchmarks, they tend to trade at a double-digit discount.
We are happy to take advantage of this discount, to access Heineken's
long-term potential at c11.0% cheaper than the main quote.
Fund Manager Launch Date Denomination
Nick Train 22 Jan 2001 GBP
Year End Dividend Benchmark
31st Mar Ex Date: June The annual average yield on the 21/2%
Payment: August Consolidated Loan Stock.
The Board Management Fees Registered Address
Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% Lindsell Train Investment Trust
Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 10% of annual increase 77A High Street
Donald Adamson in the share price, plus dividend, Brentwood
Michael Lindsell above the gross annual yield of the 2 ESSEX CM14 4RR
1/2% Consolidated Loan Stock.
ISIN Bloomberg Listing
GB0031977944 LTI LN London Stock Exchange
Disclaimer
This document is intended for use by persons who are authorised by the UK
Financial Services Authority ('FSA') and those who are permitted to receive such
information in the UK. The information contained in this document does not
constitute an offer or invitation to buy or sell any investments. Nothing in
this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. Lindsell Train
and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in this investment.
The value of any investment in securities or funds and the income generated from
them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance cannot
be used as a guide or guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the
original amount you have invested. Changes in foreign exchange rates may cause
the value of your investment to go up or down. Some funds with higher gearing
may be subject to higher volatility and the investment value may change
substantially. The net asset value (NAV) performance of an investment trust is
not the same as its market share price performance.
Issued by Lindsell Train Limited
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
14 Jun 2005 LTL 000-027-3b
Lindsell Train Limited
35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ
Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499
info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com
Lindsell Train Limited is authorised and regulated by the
Financial Services Authority.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange MSCSFUFWLSISEFM