Monthly Update
Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
17 September 2007
The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
As at 31 August 2007
Fund Objective
To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute
value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of
Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5%
Consolidated Loan Stock.
Net Asset Value GBP 163.27
Share Price GBP 174.50
Premium (Discount) 6.9%
Market Capitalisation GBP 34.9mn
Benchmark (21/2% Con Ann Avg Yield +4.7%) +0.4
Source: Bloomberg; NAV-Lindsell Train. Share Price
quoted is closing mid price. See Benchmark definition.
Performance History (based in 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD 2007
GBP)
Net Asset Value TR% -9.6 +3.1 +23.7 +16.5 +13.7 +11.7
Share Price TR% -19.8 -8.7 +20.6 +27.5 +20.1 +18.3
Source: LTL and Bloomberg. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22
Jan 2001. TR=Total Return (with dividends reinvested) Past performance is not a
guide to future performance. The price of units and the income from them may go
down as well as up. Investors may not get back what they invested.
2006 Performance Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Net Asset Value TR% +0.9 +1.9 +1.2 -1.8 -2.0 +1.8 +1.7 +2.1 +3.2 +0.5 +0.2 +2.8
Share Price TR% -3.0 +7.5 +1.5 +3.4 -1.5 -2.6 +3.2 +4.1 +5.7 +3.0 +3.6 -1.6
Source: LTL and S&P Micropal unless otherwise indicated. Performance years
listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001.
TR=Total Return (with dividends reinvested)
2007 Performance Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Net Asset Value TR% +2.0 +0.8* +1.9 +2.6 +4.5 -3.1 +2.5 -1.6
Share Price TR% -1.3 +4.0 +3.1 +4.5 +2.0 +0.6 -2.4 +5.2
Source: LTL and Bloomberg unless otherwise indicated. Performance years listed
Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. TR= Total Return (with dividends reinvested)
*Source: Lindsell Train Ltd .
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and
the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what
they invested.
Industry Breakdown % of NAV
Bonds 14.4
Preference Shares 10.3
Equity - Media 24.7
Equity - Banks & Investment Co. 7.3
Equity - Leisure & Ent. 5.5
Equity - Food & Beverage 29.1
Equity - Consumer Goods 1.8
Equity - Internet 1.5
Investment Funds 21.2
Cash & Equivalent (15.8)
Total 100.0
Source: Lindsell Train
Top 10 Holdings % of NAV
Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 11.7
Nintendo 11.6
HBOS 9.25% Non Cum Pref 10.3
Barr AG 9.7
Cadbury Schweppes 8.8
Diageo 7.5
Lindsell Train Ltd 7.3
Marston's 5.8
21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 5.6
Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 5.5
Source: Lindsell Train
Fund Exposure Bonds Prefs Equity Funds Cash % of NAV
UK % 9.9 10.3 50.4 4.0 (16.3) 58.3
USA % 4.5 - 3.1 - 4.8 12.4
Europe (ex UK) % - - 4.8 - (2.3) 2.5
Japan % - - 11.6 5.5 (2.0) 15.1
Global % - - - 11.7 - 11.7
Total 14.4 10.3 69.9 21.2 (15.8) 100.0
Source: Lindsell
Train
Fund Manager's Comments
Three reasons to be cheerful.
First, the price of the UK Treasury 2.5% irredeemable gilt has gained 10% since
its low for the year, June 18th. We own this instrument for your Company and
take comfort from its counter cyclicality to the equity market. However, the
reasons for its rally buck us up more generally. Irredeemable gilts are the most
sensitive of all that breed (to inflation expectations), because their lack of a
redemption date means they are exposed to the full malignity of future UK
inflation out to Domesday. This sensitivity explains why the gilt had performed
so poorly until June, falling 20% from its peak in early 2006, because, since
then, inflation expectations have been on the up. UK equity and real estate bull
markets can only take so much of this - in the end they wilt under the rising
cost of long term Sterling capital, which is, of course, exactly what the yield
on the irredeemable gilt represents.
We think that one way of interpreting disruptions in Anglo Saxon capital markets
of the last 20 years or more, is to note that, periodically, asset prices behave
in whatever way is required to ensure that inflation does not get out of hand.
There have been successive 'inflation scares' over the last few decades and
sometimes it has taken the temporarily painful bursting of a high-flying asset
class to dampen those fears and permit an eventual resumption of the bull market
in financial assets. It is certainly possible to analyse the current US sub-
prime mortgage debacle in this way. It is proving painful, dousing animal
spirits on both sides of the Atlantic. Most important, it appears to be leading
to a moderation of inflation expectations, as the rally in the irredeemable gilt
indicates. Speculators may have been burned, but investors can welcome the shock
as likely to signal a return to benign conditions of stable or even gradually
falling long gilt yields.
Next, the deal announced in July between French company Steria and fallen UK
tech-star Xansa. We are interested in this transaction because it confirms our
strategic view that investors currently undervalue technology companies, still
reacting against the wrenching unwinding of the overvaluation extreme of 2000.
Steria offered a 70% premium to win the approval of Xansa's board. This is
obviously a substantial value gap, akin to the premium to market price that
Murdoch had to pay to acquire Dow Jones, another company situated in the pariah
sectors of Technology and Media. Xansa is being taken out on a historic P/E of
over 30x and Dow Jones 50x. If these valuations are anything like indicative of
the strategic worth of select tech and media assets, then as managers of the
Lindsell Train Global Media Fund, we should be very excited. Although this fund
is already up 18% in 2007, to end August, there is apparently much more upside.
On this note, we think it significant that tech-heavy NASDAQ has begun to
outperform other US benchmarks, rising 1.9% in the troubled month of August and
now up over 6% in 2007. As cyclical sectors of the global economy begin to slow,
led by US housing (the US housing industry employs 10% of the nation's
workforce), we expect the secular growth offered by some technology and media
companies to become more attractive to investors. eBay, held both directly in
the Company and via the Media Fund, up 17% this year, is a good example .
Finally, amidst the alarms in the stock market we wonder whether investors have
fully digested the strength of the recent results season, unfolding over the
torrid Summer. From our perspective it was very satisfactory, particularly as
regards dividend growth. Reviewing our 12 directly held equities, 11 pay
dividends - eBay the exception. Six of these have increased their latest
dividend by 20% or more - Cadbury, Clarins, Heineken, Marstons, Nintendo and
Reuters, while AG Barr and Reed have hiked by c10%. Pearson's interim was up 5%.
This leaves Dow Jones, with an unchanged dividend (but a holding soon to be
turned into cash) and Diageo.
Diageo stuck to its recent policy of increasing the dividend by 'only' 5%, still
a 'real' uplift of course; however it also reaffirmed its commitment to
additional cash return via equity retirement. Last year Diageo spent £1.4
billion on buybacks, over 5% of its current market capitalisation. Added to the
3% dividend yield on the shares, this amounts to an 8% total cash return to
Diageo shareholders, which in no way prevented the company investing
successfully for growth in its operating profits, predicted to accelerate to 9%
this year, with net earnings up even more, as a result of the shrinkage in
shares outstanding. It looks as though Diageo will buy another £1.0 billion of
its stock in 2007/8, which we believe is highly accretive for non-selling
shareholders, because the equity remains undervalued.
Real dividend growth will be the key determinant of the long-term total return
from our strategy and our confidence in the capacity of the equity portfolio to
deliver growing streams of dividends, at a higher rate than inflation, has
improved over the Summer - notwithstanding the macro scares.
Fund Manager Launch Date Denomination
Nick Train 22 Jan 2001 GBP
Year End Dividend Benchmark
31st Mar Ex Date: June The annual average yield on the 21/2%
Payment: August Consolidated Loan Stock.
The Board Management Fees Registered Address
Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
Donald Adamson Performance Fee: 10% of annual increase Springfield Lodge, Colchester Road
Dominic Caldecott in the share price above the gross Chelmsford
Michael Lindsell annual yield of the 21/2% Consolidated ESSEX CM2 5PW
Michael Mackenzie Loan Stock.
ISIN Secretary Listing
GB0031977944 Phoenix Administration Services Limited London Stock Exchange
Bloomberg
LTI LN
Disclaimer
Risk Warning This factsheet is intended for use by shareholders of the Lindsell
Train Investment Trust ('LTIT') and/or persons who are authorised by the UK
Financial Services Authority or those who are permitted to receive such
information in the UK. Any opinion expressed whether in general or both on the
performance of individual securities and in a wider economic context represents
Lindsell Train's views at the time of preparation. They are subject to change
without notice and should not be construed as investment advice or investment
recommendation. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may
not be repeated. The value of investments and income from them can go down as
well as up and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Lindsell
Train Investment Trust plc is an investment trust company listed on the London
Stock Exchange. Investment trusts have the ability to borrow to invest which is
commonly referred to as gearing. Companies with higher gearing are subject to
higher risks and therefore the investment value may change substantially. The
net asset value ('NAV') per share and its performance of an investment trust may
not be the same as its market share price per share and performance.
Issued by Lindsell Train Limited
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
17 September 2007 LTL 000-051-9
Lindsell Train Limited
2 Queen Anne's Gate Buildings, Dartmouth Street, London SW1H 9BP U.K.
Tel. +44 20 7227 8200 Fax. +44 20 7227 8299
enquiry@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com
Lindsell Train Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
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