Trading Statement
Nokia Corporation
03 December 2002
Nokia expects solid growth in the mobile handset industry in 2003
The company expects 10% or slightly more handset market growth in 2003 - while
anticipating a challenging industry environment in wireless infrastructure to
continue
At the company's bi-annual strategy meeting for investors on Tuesday in Irving,
Texas, Nokia (NYSE:NOK) management reinforced its confidence in the continued
growth of the mobile handset industry in 2003. At the same time, the company
expects continued challenges in the wireless infrastructure industry in 2003.
Speaking to investors, Jorma Ollila, Chairman and CEO said, 'As industry growth
dynamics change, Nokia is the company best positioned to capitalize on the
opportunities ahead. We see growth potential in new product categories
especially in games, imaging and the enterprise market in which we can extend
our strong brand, technology prowess and manufacturing scalability. We believe
we have gained global handset market share in 2002, bringing us even closer to
our target of 40%.'
Wireless Handset Market
Nokia continues to believe the total market volume for handsets will reach 400
million units in 2002 and 2003 market volume is expected to grow 10% or slightly
more. Growth in 2003 will be driven by a combination of subscriber growth and a
stabilizing replacement cycle. The company projects that the mobile subscriber
market will grow from more than 1.1 billion at the end of 2002 to approximately
1.5 billion in 2005, while the annual share of the replacement market will
continue to grow from the current 50% level.
Currently, slightly more than a quarter of the global subscribers upgrade their
handsets annually, which leads to a replacement cycle of roughly 2.5 years. This
replacement cycle has lengthened over the last 18 months - but now appears to be
stabilizing - providing an important engine for growth going forward.
Wireless Infrastructure Market
For the full year 2002, Nokia expects the total wireless infrastructure market
to be down approximately 20%, while the company's addressable market will
decline closer to 15%. The outlook for the market continues to be challenging as
operators focus on cash flow while cutting back on investments. For 2003, Nokia
anticipates that the total market in mobile infrastructure will be down
approximately 10%, while Nokia's addressable market should fair slightly better
with a decrease of roughly 5-10%.
While operator investments have decreased, capacity needs, driven by increasing
network traffic, have grown. Continued take-up of mobile data services will
further increase pressure on existing networks. The global technologies of GSM,
EDGE and WDCMA provide operators with the smoothest evolution to deliver the
capacity needs in the most cost efficient manner.
Enabling Mobile Technologies
As the market enters into a new phase of advanced features and services,
facilitated by color screens, imaging, MMS (multimedia message service), and
Java, Nokia stands at the forefront with its expanded breadth of product
offerings. In 2002, Nokia has shipped over 30 new phone models - many of which
incorporate these advanced features.
In 2003, Nokia expects to ship 50-100 million color handsets, with MMS, Java and
browser support. Of these, approximately 10 million will be based on Nokia's
Series 60 user interface. More than 70 operators have already launched MMS
services.
OMA and Mobile Software
As the industry makes the transition from voice to value added services,
openness is a critical requirement for growth. Openness enables the greatest
proliferation of services and provides the best platform for developers. The
company stands in strong support of the continued efforts of the Open Mobile
Alliance and its over 300 member companies. For instance, industry players
representing over 60% of the handset market have already adopted Nokia's Series
60 software platform, which is quickly becoming the de facto platform for smart
phones.
Nokia's bi-annual strategy meeting for investors can be viewed live on the web
at www.nokia.com (under 'Investors') beginning at 9am ET on Tuesday December 3,
2002.
Nokia is the world leader in mobile communications. Backed by its experience,
innovation, user-friendliness and secure solutions, the company has become the
leading supplier of mobile phones and a leading supplier of mobile, fixed and IP
networks. By adding mobility to the Internet Nokia creates new opportunities for
companies and further enriches the daily lives of people. Nokia is a broadly
held company with listings on six major exchanges.
It should be noted that certain statements herein which are not historical
facts, including, without limitation those regarding A) the timing of product
deliveries; B) our ability to develop and implement new products and
technologies; C) expectations regarding market growth and developments; D)
expectations for growth and profitability; and E) statements preceded by
'believe,' 'expect,' 'anticipate,' 'foresee' or similar expressions, are
forward-looking statements. Because these statements involve risks and
uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from the results that we
currently expect. Factors that could cause these differences include, but are
not limited to: 1) developments in the mobile communications market including
the continued development of the replacement market and the Company's success in
the 3G market; 2) demand for products and services; 3) market acceptance of new
products and service introductions; 4) the availability of new products and
services by operators; 5) weakened economic conditions in many of the Company's
principal markets; 6) pricing pressures; 7) intensity of competition; 8) the
impact of changes in technology; 9) consolidation or other structural changes in
the mobile communications market; 10) the success and financial condition of the
Company's partners, suppliers and customers; 11) the management of the Company's
customer financing exposure; 12) the continued success of product development by
the Company; 13) the continued success of cost-efficient, effective and flexible
manufacturing by the Company; 14) the ability of the Company to source component
production and R&D without interruption and at acceptable prices; 15) inventory
management risks resulting from shifts in market demand; 16) fluctuations in
exchange rates, including, in particular, the fluctuations in the euro exchange
rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen; 17) impact of changes in
government policies, laws or regulations; 18) the risk factors specified on
pages 10 to 17 of the Company's Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2001.
For more information:
Lauri Kivinen, Corporate Communications, tel. +358 7180 34495
Ulla James, Investor Relations, tel. +1 972 894 4880
Antti Raikkonen, Investor Relations, tel. +358 7180 34290
www.nokia.com
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The company news service from the London Stock Exchange