AGM Statement
Old Mutual PLC
17 May 2002
OLD MUTUAL PLC
AGM Trading Statement for the four months ended 30 April 2002
Old Mutual has made a solid start to 2002. Our embedded value has benefited
from the strengthening of the Rand since year end, whilst our operating profits
in Sterling have been held back as the average Rand:Sterling exchange rate
remains significantly below that for last year. Life new business has been
strong, particularly in the USA, but asset growth in the USA and the UK has been
flat as a result of weak equity markets.
South Africa
In the Group's South African Life Assurance business, sales results for the
first four months of 2002 have improved significantly on the equivalent period
in 2001 when sales were slow, and are marginally up on the average volumes for
the whole of 2001. Rand profits have been a little dampened by the impact of
rising interest rates on bond values, project expenses and flat assets under
management.
The asset base of Nedcor, the Group's 53%-owned banking subsidiary, has grown at
a satisfactory rate and its underlying profits also have remained satisfactory.
Nedcor has announced an offer for the sixth largest South African banking group,
BoE, which has been recommended by the Board of BoE. If successful, this will
considerably strengthen Nedcor's position in the market, and Nedcor hopes to
complete the acquisition in the third quarter of 2002.
USA
In the USA, the Group's Asset Management business has recorded positive net fund
flows - approximately $0.3 billion - and investment performance has been good.
The markets have not been positive, however, and income has been curtailed as a
result. The business is on track to reduce head office expenditure by around
$25 million for the full year. The restructuring of Pilgrim Baxter has been
completed, and although Pilgrim Baxter's traditional asset base has eroded, its
funds sub-advised by other Old Mutual firms have been very successful.
The value of the Group's strategy of having both fixed interest and equity
offerings to US retail customers has been clearly shown this year, as the US
Life business has benefited from the continuing trend to fixed interest based
products, with sales of $1.2 billion for the first four months. The fixed
annuity market in the US is at an all time high, and the Group is taking
advantage of these favourable conditions while they last.
UK
Trading conditions in the UK have continued to be very difficult. The FTSE 100
Index has oscillated in a narrow range during 2002, and asset-based revenues
have been at similar levels to the second half of 2001. Gerrard - the
cornerstone of the Group's UK business - produced a small profit during the
first four months of 2002, but revenues have historically been weighted towards
the first half of the year. OMAM(UK) has successfully launched new funds during
the first four months of 2002.
Eurobond issue and gearing
In March 2002, the Group successfully launched its debut bond in the Eurobond
market, raising €400 million. The Group's funding requirement is US$
denominated, and therefore the proceeds of the bond issue were swapped into a
$349 million debt liability at a fixed US$ interest rate of 6.59% p.a. The
Group's gearing ratio has remained at a satisfactory 35%.
Outlook
The Group is well positioned in its chosen businesses within its three main
chosen geographies. It remains highly sensitive to equity market, interest
rate, and currency exchange rate levels, which, with some notable exceptions,
have generally continued to be unfavourable so far in 2002. While these
conditions persist, the Group's operating environment will be challenging, but
the Group remains confident that its businesses are well placed to take
advantage of any improvements in markets.
Conference call:
There will be an analysts' telephone conference call with Julian Roberts, Group
Finance Director, at 10:00a.m. this morning, UK time (11:00a.m. South African
time). To participate, please dial the following toll free numbers:
UK & Europe: 00800 4444 4411
South Africa: 0800 991103
US: 1 800 482 5547
International participants from outside the above regions should dial the
following number (not toll free): +44 (0)20 8781 0577
Should you not be able to participate, a replay facility will be in place until
Friday, 24 May 2002. To activate the replay facility, dial the following
number, and quote the relevant access code:
UK, Europe & South Africa: +44 (0)20 8288 4459 Access code: 613612
US: +1 303 804 1855 Access code: 1851456
17 May 2002
Enquiries
Old Mutual plc, London: Tel: +44 (0)20 7569 0100
Jim Sutcliffe, Group Chief Executive
Julian Roberts, Group Finance Director
James Poole, Director Investor Relations Tel: +44 (0)7768 991 096
or South Africa:
Michael Willis, Manager Investor Relations Tel: +27 (0)21 509 5014
College Hill, London: Tel: +44 (0)20 7457 2020
Tony Friend
Nicholas Williams
or South Africa: Tel: +27 (0)11 447 3030
Robyn Hunt
Further details on operating businesses
South African Businesses
The first four months of 2002 were marked by a recovery in the Rand against
international currencies and an improving equity market in South Africa. The
Group reports its earnings by reference to the average exchange rates prevailing
during the period covered, so, despite this welcome recovery in the Rand, there
is still a material adverse variance, comparing the first four months of 2001
and 2002. The average Rand:Sterling exchange rate for the first four months of
2002 was R16.33:£1, compared to an average rate for the first four months of
2001 of R11.46:£1 (a decline in the rate of 42%) and a closing rate of R17.43:
£1 at 31 December 2001. South African interest rates have moved up 2% since the
beginning of the year, and a further 1% increase looks possible before mid-year.
The benefits of tax cuts flowing from the South African Budget will only be
felt in the second half of the year.
Life Assurance and Asset Management
The South African Life Assurance and Asset Management businesses have had a
satisfactory first four months of 2002, building on their growth in the second
half of 2001. Individual Business continued to perform well in both single and
recurring premium business, with new business APE (Annual Premium Equivalent) of
R824 million, an increase of 22% on the equivalent period in 2001, reflecting
the benefits of increased salesforce productivity. Group Business APE of R240
million is more than double the same period last year, which Old Mutual
considered a poor period. Results from bancassurance are in line with
expectations, and are ahead of the second half of 2001.
As a result of increased premiums, the value of new business of R236 million for
the first four months of 2002 is substantially better than the same period last
year. New business margins at a product level are in line with the same period
last year.
Total South African policyholder assets under management were R216 billion at 30
April 2002, unchanged from 31 December 2001. Net client cashflow continued to
be negative for the first four months of 2002.
Operating profit, before long-term investment return, for the period was
slightly below expectations due, inter alia, to expenses associated with
implementing a new administration system in the Group Business area and
reductions in bond values following interest rate rises.
Banking
The banking market in South Africa remains highly competitive, with
over-capacity in the industry, smaller banks under increasing liquidity
pressure, the micro-lending and retailing (furniture) sectors suffering strain,
and the international banks taking market share in the corporate and investment
banking sectors.
Nedcor's asset quality continues to show improvements, with advances growth
remaining robust. Nedcor is currently negotiating the detailed service level
agreement with Swisscard, under which Nedcor will assume responsibility for
Swisscard's card processing operations, with completion set for June 2002.
Further European banks have expressed interest in having discussions on
processing arrangements with Nedcor. Nedcor's joint ventures, although at
different stages of maturity, are gathering market momentum.
Whilst Nedcor recorded Rand translation gains on its international assets in
2001, recent strong gains in the Rand have given rise to translation losses so
far in 2002.
Nedcor announced a recommended bid to acquire BoE on 22 April 2002. After
completing due diligence, Nedcor confirmed on 13 May 2002 that it would proceed
with this offer and that the consideration under the offer would be increased to
the maximum price referred to in the initial announcement. It is anticipated
that, subject to regulatory approval, the acquisition could be completed by the
end of July 2002. The potential synergies to be derived from the proposed
acquisition of BoE are exciting.
Competition Commission authority for the proposed merger of Permanent Bank and
Old Mutual Banking Services has been received. Approval from the Minister of
Finance is awaited. Implementation of this merger will add further weight to
the bancassurance initiatives between Old Mutual and Nedcor.
General Insurance
The operating ratio of Mutual & Federal Insurance Company Limited, the Group's
51% owned general insurance subsidiary, remains below 100% due to continued
control of expenses. During the first four months of 2002, the extent of the
improvement in the underwriting cycle was not as pronounced as had been
expected, as surplus capacity in the market has produced significant opposition
to the rate increases required to combat higher reinsurance costs and claims
inflation due to the depreciation of the Rand in 2001.
US Businesses
During the first four months of 2002, the S&P 500 Index decreased 6% and the
NASDAQ Composite Index declined 13%. Over this period investors have indicated
a general preference for value-styled investments, rather than growth oriented
products. The advantage of owning a spread of businesses in the USA has again
been shown by their resilience to difficult US equity market conditions.
Asset Management
Assets managed by our US Asset Management business increased during the first
four months of 2002 from $144.6 billion, after adjusting for affiliate
divestitures, to $145.6 billion, with net fund inflows of $0.3 billion, which
include net fund inflows from Fidelity & Guaranty (F&G) of $0.7 billion.
During March 2002, Old Mutual announced that it had agreed to restructure the
residual 20% revenue-share interest of Pilgrim Baxter through the payment of
$175 million plus an earn-out over five years, if profit growth exceeds 7.5% per
annum. The restructuring consolidates Old Mutual's interest in the US retail
asset management market.
Pilgrim Baxter recorded net fund outflows of $0.9 billion from its traditional
business, as growth managers suffered from the movement to less volatile
investment classes. Pilgrim Baxter continues to be the development platform for
the Group's mutual fund business. During the first four months of 2002, five
new funds were taken on to this platform and sub-advised by other firms within
the Group, and these attracted assets of $0.8 billion for these firms.
Investment performance remains strong. On the retail side, 56% of all of the
Group's US mutual funds hold Morningstar 4 or 5 star ratings. Within OMAM(US),
where the main focus is on institutional and wrap channel assets, performance
figures over three years exceed benchmarks in 81% of cases.
Life Assurance
The fixed annuity market in the USA is significantly above its previous peaks,
benefiting from customers' current conservatism. This will vary with economic
conditions, but for now the Group has excellent opportunities in this market.
Old Mutual's US Life businesses have performed impressively for the first four
months of 2002, with total sales of $1.2 billion
($148 million on an APE basis). This represents, on an APE basis, more than
double the sales achieved in the equivalent period in 2001, which was prior to
acquisition by Old Mutual.
The value of new business for the first four months of 2002 of $25 million, at a
margin of 17%, is a significant improvement on that of the prior year.
On a funds flow basis, the Group's US Life businesses have attracted $1.1
billion in net policyholder cash inflow for the first four months of 2002.
Since acquisition, F&G has generated net policyholder cash inflows totalling
more than $2 billion. Total assets under management were $8.0 billion at 30
April 2002.
AM Best reaffirmed F&G's 'A' rating, and removed it from review status in
February 2002.
UK Businesses
The FTSE 100 Index at the end of April 2002 had declined 1% since 31 December
2001 and asset-based revenues have consequently been flat. Retail market
activity levels have also remained low during this period. Against this
background, Gerrard has seen some improvement in trading volumes, and has
produced a small profit in this period, which historically has produced a
disproportionate share of annual revenues. Headcount reduction initiatives at
Gerrard have continued during the first four months of 2002.
OMAM(UK) is now firmly focused on generating external UK retail funds. New
funds in excess of £100 million were attracted in the first four months, with
notable inflows into corporate bond and UK small cap funds. The transfer of
Gerrard's unit trust business to OMAM(UK), and the associated rationalisation of
the unit trust administration function, are anticipated to result in cost
savings from 2003.
Trading at GNI has been satisfactory, with all business units contributing a
positive result.
Approval was obtained from the FSA in early May 2002 to allow life products to
be offered by Selestia. Onshore and offshore bond product launches will expand
the investment offering in line with the original business plan.
Discussions regarding the possible sale of Old Mutual Securities to Beeson
Gregory plc were terminated during April 2002. Old Mutual remains committed to
finding the appropriate means to secure Old Mutual Securities' continued
development, whether that is within Old Mutual or as part of another group.
Interim results
Old Mutual plc expects to announce its interim results for the six months ending
30 June 2002 on 12 August 2002. It is expected that Nedcor Limited will
announce its interim results on 30 July 2002.
Forward looking statements
This announcement contains certain forward looking statements with respect to
the financial condition and results of operations of Old Mutual plc and Group
companies, which by their nature involve risk and uncertainty because they
relate to events and depend on circumstances that may occur in the future.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the
forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, global, national and
regional economic conditions, levels of securities markets, interest rates,
credit or other risks of lending and investment activities, and competitive and
regulatory factors.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange